STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 26 May

Compelling Market to Watch
Not One for Large Commitments

This market has all the earmarks of one in which you could lose a lot of your wealth. It doesn’t feel as if this is a market in which you would be missing any great opportunities by simply sitting on the sidelines and watching the action unfold. The action is compelling; but the short term opportunities, shallow. Practically all worldwide stock markets have lost a significant percentage over the last 2 weeks. While an oversold bounce is likely, the strength and magnitude of the drop so far suggests that something fundamental has changed in the market. If this is the case, then it would not make sense to play this potential rally for a few points to the upside because that upside may not come. This makes today’s market a poor entry point for going short, and a dangerous one for going long. It’s a compelling market to watch; but not one for large commitments.

Some investors have ridden the oil and oil service sector upward and it has risen at a higher rate than the rest of the US stock market over the last couple of years. They are now suffering more than the general market. The fundamental case for oil and oil stocks is strong. What can be a stronger case for oil as, “we’re running out of it”? Yet with oil stocks taking a bigger drubbing than the general market, maybe it is relevant to note that commodities (including oil) tend to drop toward the end of economic cycles. Is it different this time? It may very well be different this time, but when oil and commodities are tracking the stock market almost on a daily basis, something just isn’t right. It’s a compelling market to watch; but not one for large commitments.

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Of course, one can rationalize that the factors listed above are only relevant to traders because they are long term “investors.” Well if you feel that way, then rationalize this – Dividends on the S&P 500 are significantly less than 2%. With short term interest rates near 5%, your “investment” is totally dependent upon the greater fool standing behind you waiting to pay your price. If you think you are investing, it would be wise to consider whether the greater fool will remain behind you when you need the money from your “investment.” It’s a compelling market to watch; but not one for large commitments.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

My sentiment exactly :eyes:

8:30 AM Personal Income Apr
Briefing Forecast 0.7%
Market Expects 0.7%
Prior 0.5%

8:30 AM Personal Spending Apr
Briefing Forecast 0.6%
Market Expects 0.6%
Prior 0.6%

9:50 AM Mich Sentiment-Rev. May
Briefing Forecast 79.0
Market Expects 79.0
Prior 79.0

8:30 AM ET 5/26/06 U.S. APRIL PERSONAL SAVINGS RATE -1.6%

8:30 AM ET 5/26/06 U.S. APRIL COMPENSATION UP 0.8%

8:30 AM ET 5/26/06 U.S. APRIL REAL DISPOSABLE INCOMES FALL 0.1%

8:30 AM ET 5/26/06 U.S. APRIL REAL CONSUMER SPENDING UP 0.1%

8:30 AM ET 5/26/06 U.S. CORE INFLATION UP 2.1% Y-O-Y, FASTEST IN A YEAR

8:30 AM ET 5/26/06 U.S. APRIL CORE INFLATION UP 0.2% AS EXPECTED

8:30 AM ET 5/26/06 U.S. APRIL CONSUMER SPENDING UP 0.6% AS EXPECTED

8:30 AM ET 5/26/06 U.S. APRIL PERSONAL INCOMES UP 0.5% V. 07% EXPECTED

the market and the Fed in regards to inflation fears. I can't remember the name but it had numbers of 2.1% and 3% and they talking heads on Bloomberg said that the worry for the Fed has to do with the 2-2.1% number. Which report is that and when is that do out today?

Sorry for being a bonehead on this also UIA that link you provided yesterday for the Oil futures along with other types of futures - does that link update constantly? If yes just while the market is open? or does it update around the clock?

Thank you to you and Ozy for providing us with this information.

the number or statistic that you are referring to is the PCE inflation -

http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/news/afx/singleNew.asp?menu=economicnews&pv_noticia=MTFH86468_2006-05-26_11-52-10_L26738535

excerpt:

For more clues on whether the Federal Reserve hikes rates at its June policy meeting from the current 5 percent, traders were looking to the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, the inflation gauge most closely watched by the Fed.

The core PCE for April, due at 1230 GMT, is expected to show a monthly rise of 0.2 percent after a 0.3 percent rise in March.

"Core CPI inflation came in a tenth of a percent higher than expectations (in April). It's adding to these inflation fears that people have been speaking about in the U.S.," said Johan Javeus, FX strategist at SEB Merchant Banking in Stockholm.

That link for the futures market that I gave you yesterday updates constantly - even when our markets are closed.

You are definitely not "a bonehead" - it is really hard to grasp all of the factors that make up the "markets" - I am just a novice at all of this myself and many times I feel underwater and inept and just plain "too stoopid to breathe" in my attempts to pull it all together and get a glimpse into the gaping maw.

:hi:

Too beautiful, UiA :hi:

it was either the gaping maw or the yawning abyss :D

:hi:

I have met them at close of day
Coming with vivid faces
From counter or desk among grey
Eighteenth-century houses.
I have passed with a nod of the head
Or polite meaningless words,
Or have lingered a while and said
Polite meaningless words,
And thought before I had done
Of a mocking tale or a gibe
To please a companion
Around the fire at the club,
Being certain that they and I
But lived where motley is worn:
All changed, changed utterly:
A terrible beauty is born.

<...>

(from) W.B. Yeats, Easter 1916

ed. and let's have a repeat of this (from late yesterday):

April is the cruelest month, breeding
Lilacs out of the dead land, mixing
Memory and desire, stirring
Dull roots with spring rain.
Winter kept us warm, covering
Earth in forgetful snow, feeding
A little life with dried tubers.
Summer surprised us, coming over the Starnbergersee
With a shower of rain; we stopped in the colonnade,
And went on in sunlight, into the Hofgarten,
And drank coffee, and talked for an hour.
Bin gar keine Russin, stamm' aus Litauen, echt deutsch.
And when we were children, staying at the arch-duke's,
My cousin's, he took me out on a sled,
And I was frightened. He said, Marie,
Marie, hold on tight. And down we went.
In the mountains, there you feel free.
I read, much of the night, and go south in the winter.
What are the roots that clutch, what branches grow
Out of this stony rubbish? Son of man,
You cannot say, or guess, for you know only
A heap of broken images, where the sun beats,
And the dead tree gives no shelter, the cricket no relief,
And the dry stone no sound of water. Only
There is shadow under this red rock,
(Come in under the shadow of this red rock),
And I will show you something different from either
Your shadow at morning striding behind you
Or your shadow at evening rising to meet you;
I will show you fear in a handful of dust.

<...>

(from) T.S. Eliot, From The Wasteland.

:donuts: and lurkers. Ghost Dog, we are into serious smack down mode here.
I'll see your Yeats and Eliot and call Keats....Don't make me go all Lord Byron on you.:spank:

THOU still unravish'd bride of quietness,
Thou foster-child of Silence and slow Time,
Sylvan historian, who canst thus express
A flowery tale more sweetly than our rhyme:
What leaf-fringed legend haunts about thy shape 5
Of deities or mortals, or of both,
In Tempe or the dales of Arcady?
What men or gods are these? What maidens loth?
What mad pursuit? What struggle to escape?
What pipes and timbrels? What wild ecstasy? 10

<big snip-ouch>


Who are these coming to the sacrifice?
To what green altar, O mysterious priest,
Lead'st thou that heifer lowing at the skies,
And all her silken flanks with garlands drest?
What little town by river or sea-shore, 35
Or mountain-built with peaceful citadel,
Is emptied of its folk, this pious morn?
And, little town, thy streets for evermore
Will silent be; and not a soul, to tell
Why thou art desolate, can e'er return. 40

O Attic shape! fair attitude! with brede
Of marble men and maidens overwrought,
With forest branches and the trodden weed;
Thou, silent form! dost tease us out of thought
As doth eternity: Cold Pastoral! 45
When old age shall this generation waste,
Thou shalt remain, in midst of other woe
Than ours, a friend to man, to whom thou say'st,
'Beauty is truth, truth beauty,—that is all
Ye know on earth, and all ye need to know.' 50


I vote for the gaping maw.
Happy hunting and watch out for Ursa Major.

Ye know on earth, and all ye need to know.'

...And, as a still-frisky guy, I have to remark, Ahh: "What maidens loth?
What mad pursuit? What struggle to escape?
What pipes and timbrels? What wild ecstasy?" :-)

...and attempt to comment (actually, untranslatable, I suspect):

The tao that can be told
is not the eternal Tao
The name that can be named
is not the eternal Name.

The unnamable is the eternally real.
Naming is the origin
of all particular things.

Free from desire, you realize the mystery.
Caught in desire, you see only the manifestations.

Yet mystery and manifestations
arise from the same source.
This source is called darkness.

Darkness within darkness.
The gateway to all understanding.

http://academic.brooklyn.cuny.edu/core9/phalsall/texts/taote-v3.html#1

ed: The Gaping Maw, real thing.

Oil is up so
Energy volume is already going through the roof right now, I am looking at about 30 Energy symbols right now and already most of them have some sort of pre-market volume, some of them have 40k-50k shares traded already.

PEIX - the one Bill Gates owns 25% of - it is an Ethanol stock has had almost a million shares traded already, but not in a good way.

Thanks again seems like today may be an up day, even though the market may barely squeak it out. Can we get 3 days in a row?

Good luck stop the bleeding!

looks like the market is trying to find support off of the MA's - lets hope for the ups - unless some of you all are shorting then lets hope for some downs for you all :)

9:47 AM ET 5/26/06 UMICH FINAL MAY SENTIMENT 79.1 VS. 79.0: REPORTS

9:48 AM ET 5/26/06 UMICH FINAL MAY CURRENT CONDITIONS 96.1 V. 96.2: REPORTS

9:48 AM ET 5/26/06 UMICH FINAL MAY EXPECTATIONS 68.2 VS. 68.0: REPORTS

I assume the markets will say that is good news :eyes:

SINGAPORE - Oil prices gained Friday as market participants worried by the approach of the U.S. summer driving and Atlantic hurricane seasons purchased oil contracts ahead of a long weekend in the United States.

Light, sweet crude for July delivery rose 11 cents to $71.43 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract on Thursday advanced $1.46 to settle at $71.32 a barrel.

The market closes early Friday and will remain closed Monday in observance of Memorial Day, the unofficial start of the summer driving season, when gasoline demand peaks.

Market participants said the prospect of an active hurricane season — which starts June 1 — is another factor propelling crude oil prices.

more

Within its notoriously slow-growth niche of the chemicals market, NewMarket sees one way to maintain rapid sales growth: buy it.

The company's two subsidiaries -- Ethyl and Afton Chemical -- produce additives for fuels and lubricants that reduce environmental contaminants and resist heat and stress.

This sliver of the global chemicals industry is worth about $7 billion a year and has a historical growth rate of 1% annually.

To kick sales into higher gear, NewMarket (NYSE:NEU - News) has spent the last five years reducing debt, amassing cash and positioning itself to make some buyouts. The company has hired an investment bank to advise it on potential opportunities.

more

10:12 AM ET 5/26/06 JULY CRUDE FALLS 7 CENTS TO $71.25/BRL IN EARLY NY TRADING

10:12 AM ET 5/26/06 JUNE NATURAL GAS FALLS 8.5 CENTS, OR 1.4%, TO $5.89/MLN BTUS

11:41 AM ET 5/26/06 JULY CRUDE UP 48 CENTS AT $71.80/BRL AFTER A $70.90/BRL LOW

11:41 AM ET 5/26/06 JUNE NATURAL GAS UP 3.5 CENTS AT $6.01/MLN BTUS

11:41 AM ET 5/26/06 JULY NATURAL GAS TRADES AT $6.21/MLN BTUS, UP 9.6 CENTS

1:38 PM ET 5/26/06 JUNE NATURAL GAS ENDS AT $5.925/MLN BTU, DOWN 5 CENTS ON DAY

1:38 PM ET 5/26/06 JUNE NATURAL GAS CLOSES 0.6% LOWER FOR THE WEEK

1:34 PM ET 5/26/06 JULY CRUDE CLOSES AT $71.37/BRL, UP 5 CENTS FOR THE SESSION

1:34 PM ET 5/26/06 JULY CRUDE ENDS THE WEEK WITH A 3% GAIN

WASHINGTON - Sales of existing homes fell in April, and the price posted the smallest increase in 4 1/2 years, new signals that the nation's once red-hot housing market has cooled.

The National Association of Realtors said Thursday that sales of previously owned single-family homes and condominiums dropped by 2 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted sales pace of 6.76 million units.

The median price of homes sold in April rose to $223,000, an increase of 4.2 percent from April 2005. That represented the smallest year-over-year price gain since September 2001.

The price increase in April was far below the double-digit price gains that home sellers enjoyed last year. Sales of both new and existing homes set new records for five straight years as the housing industry enjoyed a boom powered by the lowest mortgage rates in more than four decades.

more

Japanese stocks rose sharply on Friday following recent weeks of volatility. The market gained because of easing fears about inflation in the US but some of the chunkiest rises were from domestically-focused sectors. The Nikkei 225 was up 1.8 per cent to close at 15,970.76. The Topix also rose 1.8 per cent to 1,613.78.

Toyota (NYSE:TM - news), Japan's biggest carmaker and one of the country's biggest exporters to the US, was up 1.5 per cent to Y6,100. Hitachi (NYSE:HIT - news), the electronics giant, rose 2.2 per cent to Y776.

The sharp rise of some domestic sectors suggested investors were beginning to reward Japanese stocks again for the country's increasingly sunny domestic economic picture. Banking was 2.5 per cent higher, with insurance up 3 per cent.

more

http://yahoo.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=economicNews&storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060526:MTFH83751_2006-05-26_10-01-04_T104680
Fri May 26, 2006 6:01 AM ET
By Chikako Mogi

TOKYO, May 26 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan is expected to use same-day fund supplying operations again next week to keep the key unsecured overnight call money rate from overshooting while the market braces for two days of huge fund shortages.

The BOJ is playing a balancing act between letting yields on interbank lending inch higher to stir activity in the long-dormant money market, but keeping them from jumping too high before it actually begins raising rates from virtually zero.

The central bank has pledged to keep overnight rates near zero while soaking up the ocean of cash it had pumped into the banking system under the unprecedented "quantitative easing" policy, scrapped in March, that had aimed to pull the economy out of deflation. The BOJ refrained from same-day funding operations on Friday after doing so for the first time in 15 months on Thursday, taking some market players by surprise as call rates rose and some deals were done as high as at the official discount rate of 0.1 percent.

As a result of tight funding, the weighed average of the key unsecured overnight call rate rose nearly two basis points to 0.076 percent on Friday from 0.059 percent on Thursday, and jumping from 0.006 percent a week ago. Friday's weighed average was the highest since May 15, 2001, when it was 0.16 percent.

/more...

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/060526/ap/d8hrcssg0.html

<snip>

The Tokyo market gained steam in the afternoon, after traders saw recoveries in other Asian markets, particularly India, which had plunged over the last two weeks.

Those gains "cleared one concern for now," said Ryuta Otsuka, strategist at Toyo Securities.

The Indian market, which open during the Tokyo market's afternoon session, has been a major focus here due to the recent turmoil there and because Japanese investors hold about 1 trillion yen ($8.9 billion) worth of Indian mutual funds, Otsuka said.

<snip>

In currencies, the dollar was trading at 112.08 yen on the Tokyo foreign exchange market at 3 p.m. (0600 GMT) Friday, up 0.32 yen from late Thursday in New York. The euro fell to $1.2770 from $1.2793.

The yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond stood at 1.8500 percent, unchanged from Thursday's finish. Its price remained unchanged at 101.24 points.

/more, detail...

LONDON (Reuters) - NYSE Group Inc. (NYSE:NYX - news) could strike an agreed deal to buy pan-European exchange Euronext NV (ENXT.PA) for about 8 billion euros ($10.22 billion) within weeks, sources familiar with the matter said on Thursday.

NYSE unveiled its stock and cash offer of around 8 billion euros ($10.2 billion) for Euronext on Monday and said at the time it hoped to clinch an agreed deal within 24 to 48 hours.

However, the sources said that outstanding details and public holidays in Europe and the United States would delay any agreement for at least a week.

NYSE is keen to nail a deal after Frankfurt-based Deutsche Boerse (DB1Gn.DE) on Tuesday detailed its rival cash-and-share proposal, and could yet modify its offer to try and clinch a deal.

more

Disgraced Enron kingpins Kenneth Lay and Jeffrey Skilling were found guilty of conspiracy and fraud yesterday, bringing to an end one of the biggest corporate scams in U.S. history.

The once high-flying boardroom bigwigs, who were each worth more than $100 million when they ran the nation's seventh-largest corporation, could spend the rest of their lives behind bars.

Lay — who was given the nickname "Kenny Boy" by President Bush — was found guilty of all six charges against him.

Skilling, the financial whiz who cooked Enron's books, was found guilty of 19 counts of conspiracy, fraud and insider trading.

http://www.nydailynews.com/front/story/421165p-355521c.html

In the annals of corporate crime, few can match in size and complexity the gargantuan conspiracy, deception and fraud committed by Enron. Almost no one could understand the company's sprawling web of businesses, let alone its accounting, yet almost everyone admired it. In the wider business world, Kenneth Lay, Jeffrey Skilling and other architects of this corporate house of smoke and mirrors were hailed as geniuses of the financial world.

But the ``smartest guys in the room,'' as Lay, Skilling & Co. came to be known, found their match in the special Enron Task Force created by the federal government to investigate the company. After four years of sifting through millions of pages of documents, interviewing hundreds of witnesses and conducting a trial that lasted 56 days, prosecutors were vindicated Thursday by the guilty verdicts on six counts of conspiracy and fraud against Lay and on 18 counts of conspiracy and fraud and one count of insider trading against Skilling.

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As Lay and Skilling await sentencing, it's worth remembering the utter devastation that Enron left in its wake. The firm's collapse erased billions from investors portfolios; it cost thousands of people their jobs, their life savings and retirement plans; it led to the demise of Arthur Andersen, an icon of American business in its own right; and it even played a nefarious role in California's energy crisis.

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/opinion/14672724.htm

http://www.consortiumnews.com/2006/052506.html

excerpt:

For instance, the documentary evidence is now clear that in summer 2001 – at the same time Bush’s National Security Council was ignoring warnings about an impending al-Qaeda terrorist attack – NSC adviser Condoleezza Rice was personally overseeing a government-wide task force to pressure India to give Enron as much as $2.3 billion.

Then, even after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, when India’s cooperation in the “war on terror” was crucial, the Bush administration kept up its full-court press to get India to pay Enron for a white-elephant power plant that the company had built in Dabhol, India.

The pressure on India went up the chain of command to Vice President Dick Cheney, who personally pushed Enron’s case, and to Bush himself, who planned to lodge a complaint with India’s prime minister. Post-9/11, one senior U.S. bureaucrat warned India that failure to give in to Enron's demands would put into doubt the future functioning of American agencies in India.

<snip>

--Bush personally joined the fight against imposing caps on the soaring price of electricity in California at a time when Enron was artificially driving up the price of electricity by manipulating supply. Bush’s resistance to price caps bought Enron extra time to gouge hundreds of millions of dollars from California’s consumers.

--Bush granted Lay broad influence over the development of the administration’s energy policies, including the choice of key regulators to oversee Enron’s businesses. The chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission was replaced in 2001 after he began to delve into Enron’s complex derivative-financing schemes.

...more...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/05/25/AR2006052501958.html

He started as "Kenny Boy." Then he was a "supporter," an acquaintance who had not talked to President Bush in "quite some time." Now he is a man convicted of conspiracy and fraud, and a symbol of corporate corruption.

This is former Enron chief Kenneth L. Lay's transformation in the words of President Bush and his spokesmen -- going from a personal and political ally to someone the White House sought to keep as distant as possible as his role in the multibillion-dollar collapse of the energy giant became clear.

In the 1980s, when Bush was working in the Texas oil industry, his firm invested in a drilling partnership with Lay's company, a predecessor to Enron. In 1992, Lay was co-chairman of the Republican National Convention in Houston that re-nominated President George H.W. Bush.

Later, Lay was a major fundraiser for George W. Bush's political career. He delivered more than $300,000 for his two gubernatorial campaigns, according to Texans for Public Justice. In 1997, Bush wrote to Lay: "Dear Ken, One of the sad things about old friends is that they seem to be getting older -- just like you! 55 years old. Wow. . . . Laura and I value our friendship with you. . . . Your younger friend, George W. Bush."

In the 2000 presidential race, Lay remained a steadfast ally. Lay was a Bush "Pioneer" who raised at least $100,000, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. Enron also made its jet available and contributed to inaugural festivities.

more...

He was the General Counsel for Enron. He's listed in some of the civil suits, but no charges. How did this happen? I have my thoughts and this has been bothering me for some time.

party regarding the shell companies

http://dir.salon.com/story/tech/feature/2002/01/18/enron_partnerships/index.html



and it appears the DoJ used those documents in the trial

http://www.usdoj.gov/enron/exhibit/04-10/index.htm

(edited for html)

I've had to be away for a while and it has taken some time to look at all the links.

This helps clear up some of my questions, but doesn't it seem that Mintz side-stepped Derrick to get outside counsel on questionable partnerships?

Thanks again, UIA - you are also so helpful and right on top of things. I think I may be just missing the point here.

seems that Derrick tried to keep the Enron insiders out of the lawyer loop

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/enron/2006/04/the_first_thing_we_do_lets_hir_1.html

To wit:
-- Enron had 200 in-house lawyers.
-- In addition, the company employed more than 100 outside law firms from around the world.
-- Among the Houston outside firms Enron employed, the company was the No. 1 client of three of the city's largest firms.
-- Derrick instituted a policy whereby outside counsel could be hired and fired only by Enron lawyers, not by Enron "business people," as Derrick called them, meaning non-lawyers.

and maybe Mintz did go around Derrick, but he may have feared Derrick might not agree :shrug:

SAN FRANCISCO — Two high-tech alliances announced Thursday reveal the growing reliance on partnerships to capture the loyalty and money of Web surfers as the Internet industry charts its second decade.

Yahoo Inc. and EBay Inc. said they would team up on a broad partnership for Internet advertising and payments to parry a growing threat from Google Inc.

A few hours later, Google said it had struck a deal with Dell Inc. to have software installed on millions of new computers, encroaching on the PC real estate long dominated by Microsoft Corp.

So far, Microsoft has been left in the cold, rebuffed by Time Warner Inc.'s AOL and now Yahoo.

more

Hometown rivals Regions Financial Corp. and AmSouth Bancorporation agreed Thursday to a $9.8 billion merger that will create a top 10 U.S. bank.

Both major players in Florida, Regions will acquire AmSouth in a stock exchange that analysts had long speculated was an inevitable combination of the Birmingham, Ala.-based banks.

The merged bank, which will retain the Regions name, will become the fourth-largest financial institution in Florida, with $18.3 billion in deposits.

http://www.heraldtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060526/BUSINESS/605260407

MOSCOW, May 26 (RIA Novosti) - Severstal (RTS: CHMF), Russia's largest steelmaker, and world No. 2 Arcelor have agreed on a merger that will create the world's largest steel producer, the companies said Friday.

The companies said in a joint press release that the new steel giant "will be the Number 1 steel company in the world with 46 billion euros <$60 bln> in sales ... and 70 million tonnes of production" based on last year's results.

-cut-

Experts were upbeat over the companies' intention to merge their assets.

"This will enable Russian steel to enter new markets, skirting the supply quotas that exist on the European and U.S. markets," Broker Credit Services' analyst Maxim Shein said.

http://en.rian.ru/business/20060526/48650929.html

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - Stocks were again in an early-morning holding pattern Friday as investors awaited the latest economic and inflation readings.

U.S. stock futures were down in early trading, although a comparison to fair value indicated a flat or mixed open for U.S. markets.

The Commerce Department is due to report personal income and spending figures at 8:30 a.m. ET, and economists and investors are awaiting that report for its overall number, as well as its measure of price increases for goods purchased by consumers other than energy and food.

The so-called core PCE deflator came in at an annual 2.0 percent increase in the March report, at the high end of the range preferred by the Federal Reserve. If that number rises in the April report, it could spark a sell-off in stocks and bonds on fears of further Fed interest rate hikes. If the number stays at 2.0 or declines, it could help spark a rally on raised hopes of that the Fed will be able to pause in its course of rate hikes at its June 29 meeting.

http://money.cnn.com/2006/05/26/markets/stockswatch/index.htm

from the inside. Last year, in my area, prices were rising 6% a month. This year, sales are flat. The center of the market seems to be gone. The existing inventory here is 400 houses with an expected sale of 200, if we are not hit by a hurricane. With a large investor market, rising interest rates and interest only loans about to convert, everyone is carefully watching.

While this is anecdotal, perception plays a large part of our market.

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 84.64 Change -0.26 (-0.31%)

Dollar Slides as US Data Exhibit Questionable Resilience

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_fundamentals/Dollar_Slides_as_US_Data_1148590600405.html

US Dollar

Today served as a great reminder to the market that the true pressures on the dollar are to the downside. Right now we are at the tipping point for the greenback as economic data shifts from undeniable strength to questionable resilience. Today’s revision to first quarter GDP fell short of expectations, rising from 4.8 percent to 5.3 percent against a forecast for 5.8 percent growth. Admittedly, this is the best number that we have seen since the third quarter of 2000, but the half point upward revision was primarily due to increased inventories which is not a positive buildup. In addition, the shortfalls came in consumption and business investments which are certainly a cause for concern since consumer and business spending are holding up the economy. The core price consumption expenditure remained unchanged which was mildly surprising but in line with Bernanke’s rather subdued comments in a letter to the Joint Economic Committee today that core inflation remains stable. As for the housing market, once again, there is more than meets the eye. Existing home sales were slightly better than expected in the month of April but the March figure was revised lower, offsetting the firmer figure. In addition, the number of existing home sales was still 2 percent less than the previous month as inventories build up and the market continues to struggle to hold onto its strength. By now it seems like it is only a matter of time until we see a more meaningful contraction in the market. Next week we are expecting non-farm payrolls for the month of June and with the market not satisfied with last month’s results, they are once again gunning for a strong number. However jobless claims have been building up and with today’s downtick in help wanted ads, we would not be surprised to see yet another disappointment. Overall, any piece of positive US data seems to contain a weaker component and if we begin to see numbers that are just plain weak, then the arguments for the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates will fade as a result. Rate hike expectations have already been falling modestly and the lack of anything significantly hawkish in Bernanke’s letter today certainly does not help.

...more...

Tomorrow's Economic Releases: University of Michigan Survey Gains Attention Ahead Of Weekend

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/calendar/key_events/Tomorrow_s_Economic_Releases__University_of_1148592246375.html

Outlook

The final release of the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence indicator is expected to remain little changed at 79.5 from the preliminary report two weeks ago at 79.0. Gasoline prices, a huge concern for the American consumer, remain at high levels with no sign of easing in sight. Especially as the start of the summer driving season, a period of traditionally very high demand for gasoline, approaches, consumers are budgeting in expectation of further increases in fuel prices as was seen during the same time last year. Nonetheless, the figure continues to be propped up by continues strength in economic figures and positive employment prospects as wage earnings continue to fuel the potential for higher spending per individual. The report is likely to weigh little on the minds of central bankers as the economy continue to churn ahead at a 5.3 percent pace, the strongest in almost two and a half years

Previous

As high gasoline prices continued to weigh on the worries and wallets of US consumers, the confidence index dropped by the most since the double hurricanes hit the Gulf Coast of the United States at the end of summer 2005. The preliminary index fell to 79 in May from April’s final reading of 87.4. Expectations only put a drop to 86. As gas prices are up a third this year, this drop put into question whether consumer spending would be able to continue driving economic growth. Concerns over energy expenses seemed to be outweighing the fact that the jobless rate was nearing a five year low and wages were rising, but these indicators could dictate that consumers will be able to continue to spend at a healthy, albeit lower, level. Coincidentally, the dip remains similar to results to be reflected in the Conference Board’s consumer report.

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/060526/afp/060526090652business.html

TOKYO (AFP) - The dollar firmed against the yen in Asian trade as the latest data showing Japan is beating deflation provided no surprises nor lead for the market, dealers said.

The dollar had slipped overnight as US economic growth data for the first quarter came in below private economists' expectations, even though at 5.3 percent it was strongest since the third quarter of 2000.

In Tokyo afternoon trade, the dollar rose to 112.07 yen from 111.68 late Thursday in New York. The US currency had initially fallen to 111.47 after Japan's consumer price index (CPI) came in line with market forecasts. The euro fell to 1.2775 dollars from 1.2804 while rising to 143.11 yen after 143.01.

The CPI figures showed that Japanese core consumer prices rose for the sixth straight month with a gain of 0.5 percent from April a year earlier. The data showed that Japan is continuing to exit from its scourge of deflation but the figures were largely within expectations for a market which is waiting to see when the central bank will lift interest rates.

<snip>

US President George W. Bush's defense on Thursday of embattled Treasury Secretary John Snow, saying he knew of no plans for him to resign, "also helped the dollar," said Satoshi Okagawa, head of FX trading group at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation. "But basically the forex market lacks direction," Okagawa added.

The dollar fell to 52.870 Philippine pesos from 52.91 on Thursday, to 38.2350 Thai baht from 38.330, to 947.3 South Korean won from 949.8 and to 1.5794 Singapore dollars from 1.5875. It also fell to 9,280 Indonesian rupiah from 9,375 and to 32.070 Taiwan dollars from 32.087.

/more...

http://yahoo.reuters.com/stocks/quotecompanynewsarticle.aspx?storyId=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060526:MTFH84679_2006-05-26_10-38-43_L2648274
Fri May 26, 2006 6:38 AM ET

ISTANBUL, May 26 (Reuters) - Turkey's Deputy Prime Minister Abdullatif Sener said there was currently no question of the TMSF state savings insurance fund selling dollars to the market, the CNBC-E television channel reported on Friday.

Turkish assets, battered by economic and political worries, partly rebounded on Friday amid hopes of forex sales by the TMSF after Britain's Vodafone Group Plc (VOD.L: Quote, Profile, Research) paid $4.55 billion to the fund for Turkey's second-biggest mobile operator Telsim.

"There is currently no question of the TMSF selling dollars to the market," the channel quoted Sener as telling reporters.

Newspaper reports on Friday said the Fund had sold a portion of the foreign currency which it earned from the deal to the markets on Thursday and that it was planning to sell more.

"There was a rumour that the Fund was selling dollars for lira yesterday but it is priced in by the market now and the movement was reversed on the minister's comments," said one foreign exchange dealer.

The lira <IYIX=> weakened to 1.5410 against the dollar on the interbank market after the report on Sener's comments, compared with 1.5135 during the morning.

/more...

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/060526/afp/060526103438eco.html

LONDON (AFP) - The dollar steadied against the euro and the yen before vital US inflation data that may have a bearing on whether the Federal Reserve raises the cost of American borrowing once again in June.

The euro rose to 1.2814 dollars in early European trading from 1.2804 dollars late on Thursday in New York. The dollar firmed to 111.96 yen, from 111.68 yen on Thursday.

Dealers said the foreign exchange market had settled down somewhat, after global equity and commodity markets stabilized, and was eyeing Friday afternoon's release of the core PCE deflator -- the Fed's preferred measure of inflation.

<snip>

Dollar watchers are expecting the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index to rise by 0.2 percent in May, taking the annual rate up to 2.1 percent from 2.0 percent -- the upper limit of the Fed's comfort zone. "If it shows an uptick, the market will raise the probability of a rate hike from Fed and may well give the dollar some support," said Neil Mackinnon, chief economist at ECU Group.

/more...

strings to keep the dollar propped in 2005, and let's not forget the role the Jobs Destruction Act and the promise of rising interest rates played. Both of those are now played out. So what's left? Quoting Cheney's "deficits don't matter"? It's going to take a unified effort on the part of the world's CBs to keep this barge afloat. Gonna be pretty hard to "get by with a little help from our friends" when we don't have many left thanks to the Bushco school of diplomacy - "you're either with us or against us". They are putting their houses in order to choose, and I've got a feeling they are tired of being used.

Ghandi

“First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.”

Looks like there's some intervention going on :eyes:

Must be the inflation expectations in the UofMI survey. Yeah, like the Fed is gonna raise rates based on that alone. :eyes:

Didn't the BoJ reverse course yesterday on their liquidity mopping detail?

So, what's gonna prop the buck once the Fed is done raising rates? How much longer before those rates pop the housing bubble - cuz that puppy's too big of a bubble to just slowly leak? Even if it does manage to deflate slowly - what about all those other bubbles adjoining it?

FOREX-Dollar slips as US April core PCE in line
Fri May 26, 2006 8:41 AM ET
http://yahoo.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=economicNews&storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060526:MTFH87922_2006-05-26_12-41-52_NYJ000097

NEW YORK, May 26 (Reuters) - The dollar pared gains early on Friday, and slipped into negative territory against the euro after a closely-watched measure of U.S. inflation in April met expectations and wasn't as high as some might have feared.

The euro <EUR=> rose to $1.2815 <EUR=> from abround $1.2790 shortly prior to the data, while the dollar eased back against the yen to 111.90 yen <JPY=> from about 112.10 yen.

The "core" index of personal consumption expenditures last month rose 0.2 percent on the month, in line with expectations, and suggesting inflationary pressures remain pretty well contained. Analysts say a reading of 0.3 percent or more would have put added upward pressure on U.S. interest rates and yields.

...

FOREX-Dollar slips after inflation reading as expected
Fri May 26, 2006 9:05 AM ET
http://yahoo.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=economicNews&storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060526:MTFH88583_2006-05-26_13-05-20_N26200050

NEW YORK, May 26 (Reuters) - The dollar edged lower on Friday after a U.S. inflation indicator that is closely watched by the Federal Reserve met market expectations.

A government report said the core personal consumption index, or PCE, for April advanced 0.2 percent, bang on line with economists' expectations, after posting a 0.3 percent rise the prior month. The core reading removes food and energy costs. For details, see

That failed to offer much clarity on the future course of U.S. interest rates and left traders to sell the dollar ahead of a holiday weekend in the United States and Britain.

"Heading into the long weekend, it seems the market is more prone to sell the dollar than buy it," said Joe Francomano, vice president of foreign exchange at Erste Bank in New York.

The dollar had been enjoying a modest upward correction this week, a respite from heavy selling pressure that began building in April, but Francomano said the euro's ability to hold ground around $1.27 has prompted traders to reverse course. Around 8:45 a.m. EDT (1245 GMT), the euro was up 0.10 percent against the dollar at $1.2817 <EUR=>.

...

GLOBAL MARKETS-US inflation data sends stocks up, dollar lower
Fri May 26, 2006 9:25 AM ET
http://yahoo.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=economicNews&storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060526:MTFH89125_2006-05-26_13-25-55_L26649763

LONDON, May 26 (Reuters) - European stocks rallied on Friday as a report showing U.S. core inflation rose in-line with expectations in April helped knock the dollar and U.S. Treasuries lower.

Investors were hoping the University of Michigan's final reading of its consumer sentiment index at 1345 GMT would also help give a clearer picture of the outlook for interest rates, showing how higher gasoline prices have hit consumer attitudes.

The closely watched U.S. April core PCE price index rose 0.2 percent, matching economists' median forecasts, and compared with a 0.3 percent rise in March.Overall prices shot up a steep 0.5 percent, according to a Commerce Department report.

"Data shows the economy has some forward momentum. This release is apt to maintain the Fed's vigilance and concern about the inflation outlook, but it's not decisive," said William Sullivan, Chief economist at JVB Financial Group in Boca Raton.

"It doesn't say, 'Yes, the Fed must tighten.' But it doesn't assure them the luxury of a pause."

...

FOREX-Dollar gains as U Mich inflation outlook jumps
Fri May 26, 2006 10:04 AM ET
http://yahoo.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=economicNews&storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060526:MTFH90329_2006-05-26_14-04-55_NYJ000099

NEW YORK, May 26 (Reuters) - The dollar extended gains to hit session highs on Friday after the one-year inflation expectations as measured by the University of Michigan jumped to 4 percent in May from 3.3 percent in April.

The euro <EUR=> fell to $1.2727 <EUR=> from around $1.2750 shortly prior to the data, while the dollar initially rose to to 112.70 yen <JPY=> from about 112.40 yen.

The University of Michigan's headline consumer sentiment index was broadly in line with expectations, but the jump in inflation expectations helped bolster expectations the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next month. This helped extend the dollar's earlier gains as traders adjusted positions ahead of the long weekend in the U.S. and U.K..

...

Incomes and Spending Up, but Inflation Rises Above Fed Comfort Zone
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060526/economy.html?.v=7

snip>

"Consumers are becoming more cautious, having been body-slammed by the recent spike in gasoline prices, a cooler housing market and the cumulative impact of higher borrowing rates," said Brian Bethune, an economist at Global Insight, a private forecasting firm.

snip>

The government reported that personal incomes rose by 0.5 percent in April, matching the March gain, with the strength coming from a big increase in wages and salaries.

The Fed conducts policy with a goal of keeping inflation excluding energy and food rising at an annual rate of 1 percent to 2 percent. While a 2.1 percent reading is only slightly above that target level, financial markets have grown concerned in recent weeks that the central bank may keep raising rates at coming meetings because inflationary pressures have begun to mount.

The concern is that big increases in oil prices this year could now be spilling over into other areas of the economy, upsetting the calm inflation environment that the Fed seeks to maintain as a way to spur economic growth.

To keep inflation under control, the Fed increases short-term interest rates to slow borrowing and economic activity. The Fed has boosted a key rate at 16 consecutive meetings over the past two years with the big question now being whether it will call a pause at its next meeting at the end of June or keep raising rates.

Some economists worry that the Fed could be caught in a bind with inflation rising but the economy already starting to slow. Too many rate increases in such an enviornment raise the risk of over-doing the credit tightening and possibly triggering a recession.

more...

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Schiff/may262006.html

As U.S. inflation is beginning to be taken a bit more seriously, the dollar has found some temporary support as traders anticipate higher interest rates from a more aggressive Fed. Ironically, foreign investors attracted to the higher yields will be stung by the declining value of the dollar which must result from higher inflation. (See my commentary of April 6th 2005 “Hello, Inflation is not Good for the Dollar” available here.) Therefore, even if in the short term higher rates may buy the dollar some time, in the long run the dollar will buy much less. However, even if we were to ignore inflation’s impact on foreign exchange, the investment logic itself is flawed as it does not factor in the U.S. economy's vulnerability to higher interest rates.

To be viewed as bullish for the dollar, inflation is operative only when one believes that the Fed is firmly committed to fighting it. Lost in translation is the fact that the Fed's anti-inflationary rhetoric may be just that - rhetorical. While bad news for savers and investors, higher inflation is actually the government’s best friend and is the most politically expedient way to resolve America’s economic imbalances and reduce the real burden of repaying its own debts.

When higher interest rates really start to take their toll on consumer spending and home prices, the Fed will either do an about face and start cutting rates in a desperate attempt to revive the economy, or it will continue to raise them, deliberately pushing the economy deeper into recession. Both scenarios are bearish for the dollar, and it is only a matter of time before the market figures this out.

It is also ironic that Stephen Roach, who recently capitulated his long-held bearish position on the global economy, just added his voice to the chorus calling the rise in commodity prices a bubble. His principal reason for doing so was his observation that given that there is no inflation, commodity price increases of the magnitude recently experienced were unwarranted, and should therefore be reversed. That is like expecting an obese individual to lose weight simply because he claims to be dieting, while ignoring his third trip to the buffet table.

more...

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article13141.htm

05/22/06 "Information Clearing House" -- -- “If one day the world’s largest oil producers demanded euros for their barrels, it would be the financial equivalent of a nuclear strike”. Bill O’ Grady, A.G. Edwards

snip>

Putin’s plan is similar to that of Iran, which announced that it would open an oil-bourse (oil exchange) on Kish Island in two months. The bourse would allow oil transactions to be made in petro-euros, thus discarding the dollar. The Bush administration’s belligerence has intensified considerably since Iran made its intentions clear. In fact, just yesterday, Secretary of State Condi Rice said that “security guarantees were not on the table” regardless of any Iranian commitment to stop enriching uranium. In other words, Washington will not provide Iran a “non-aggression pact” whether it follows UN Security Council guidelines or not.

Surely, this is a sign that Uncle Sam is on a fast-track to war.

The United States must protect its dollar-monopoly in the oil trade or it will lose the advantage of being the world’s “reserve currency”. As the reserve currency, the US can maintain its towering $8.4 trillion national debt and $800 billion trade deficit without fear of soaring interest rates or hyper-inflation. Trillions of greenbacks are constantly circulating in oil transactions just as hundreds of billions are stockpiled in foreign banks. In effect, the Federal Reserve is issuing bad checks with every dollar printed on the assumption that they will never reach the bank for collection. So far, they’ve been right, and as the price of oil continues to skyrocket, the Fed just keeps cheerily printing more worthless paper sending it to the 4 corners of the earth. Regrettably, if Russia or Iran goes ahead with their conversion plan, then the bad checks will flood back to their source and precipitate a meltdown.

America’s economic supremacy depends entirely on its ability to compel nations to make their energy acquisitions in greenbacks. If the flaccid dollar is not linked to the world’s most vital resource, then banks will dump it overnight. This extortion-racket is the system we are defending in Iraq, not “democracy”. It is a huckster’s scam designed to perpetuate American debt by forcing worthless currency on the developing world.

In a recent article by Dave Kimble, “Collapse of the petrodollar looming”, the author provides the details of Russia’s importance to the world oil market.

more...

...promises to help fight terrorism

· Russian leader rejects blackmail accusations
· President denies gas cut off to intimidate Europe

Nicholas Watt, European editor
Friday May 26, 2006
The Guardian
http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,,1783359,00.html

The Russian president Vladimir Putin yesterday returned to his feud with the US over energy supplies when he declared that Washington is in no position to deliver lectures after the invasion of Iraq.

Weeks after vice-president Dick Cheney accused Moscow of using intimidation and blackmail in its energy policy, Mr Putin said he would continue to fight for Russia's interests.

"We see how the United States defends its interests, we see what methods and means they use for this," he said, in a thinly veiled reference to the Iraq war. "When we fight for our interests, we also look for the most acceptable methods to accomplish our national tasks, and I find it strange that this seems inexplicable to someone."

<snip>

The Russian president was also keen to mend fences with Europeans yesterday when he played host to Jose Manuel Barroso, the European commission president, and Wolfgang Schüssel, the Austrian chancellor who holds the EU's rotating presidency. Mr Putin reassured the EU that he would not jeopardise energy supplies to Europe by redirecting resources to China. "China is not an alternative to Europe for energy supplies," he said.

Alexei Miller, the chief executive of the state-controlled gas giant Gazprom, said last month that Mr Putin had decided to sign a gas deal with China after Mr Barroso reportedly threatened to limit Russia's share of the EU gas market.

At a meeting in Moscow last month Mr Barroso warned Mr Putin that Russia could not expect to buy into European distribution networks unless it opened up the Gazprom monopoly.

Mr Putin said he would not open up Gazprom unless Europe opened its energy markets. "If our European partners expect that we will let them into the inner sanctum of our economy - the energy sector - and let them in as they would like to be admitted, then we expect reciprocal steps in the most crucial and important areas for our development."

Mr Barroso responded by saying that he was keen to improve relations. "What we want is a relationship based on ... the principle of interdependence." However, Mr Barroso said that Russia still has work to do to reassure Europe after gas supplies were cut in January. "There are some sensitivities, it is true," he said.

/plenty more to think about...

Last trade 85.27 Change +0.37 (0.00%)

Settle Time 13:00 Open 84.89

High 85.36 Low 84.56

If the other 49 states were holding TW-AOL stocks, shouldn't there be a more than $1 Billion liability out there?

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-05-25T231458Z_01_N25264476_RTRIDST_0_MEDIA-TIMEWARNER-UPDATE-1.XML

LOS ANGELES, May 25 (Reuters) - Time Warner Inc. (TWX.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and other defendants including America Online and Ernst & Young have agreed to pay $23 million to settle a lawsuit accusing them of defrauding pension and investment funds in Pennsylvania, the state's Attorney General said on Thursday.

The suit, filed in 2004 in state court, alleged that the company issued false and misleading statements concerning financial results and used improper accounting practices at its subsidiary America Online.

The conduct purportedly took place before, during and after the 2001 merger between Time Warner and AOL, Attorney General Tom Corbett said in a statement.

Time Warner representatives were not available for comment.

The suit was filed by the Pennsylvania Public School Employees' Retirement System, the Pennsylvania State Employees' Retirement System, the State Workers Insurance Fund and the Tobacco Settlement Investment Board, all of which had invested in Time Warner stock.

It accused Time Warner of inflating revenue for AOL's online business by millions of dollars as its share price was declining following the peak in 2000 of Internet stocks.

...more...

http://yahoo.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=economicNews&storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060526:MTFH81176_2006-05-26_07-53-01_L26409551
Fri May 26, 2006 3:52 AM ET

LONDON, May 26 (Reuters) - European stocks jumped 1 percent on Friday as sentiment continued to improve after the recent correction, with steelmakers in focus after Arcelor (CELR.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) said it planned to merge with Russia's Severstal (CHMF.RTS: Quote, Profile, Research).

Arcelor, fighting a hostile takeover from global sector leader Mittal Steel (ISPA.AS: Quote, Profile, Research), fell 3 percent as dealers said Mittal may struggle to raise its bid, but other steel stocks such as ThyssenKrupp (TKAG.DE: Quote, Profile, Research) and Corus (CS.AS: Quote, Profile, Research) soared.

Miners were again strong after their recent sell-off, with Anglo American (AAL.L: Quote, Profile, Research) rising 4 percent as rising oil prices sparked a rush for gold, though copper crept lower. Oil majors such as Total (TOTF.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) gained.

By 0745 GMT, the FTSEurofirst 300 index <.FTEU3> of top shares was 0.9 percent up at 1,312.1 after strength in Asian shares and on Wall Street, where corporate deals lifted investor sentiment.

<snip>

Around Europe, Britain's FTSE 100 <.FTSE> added 0.8 percent, Germany's DAX <.GDAXI> gained 0.7 percent, and France's CAC 40 <.FCHI> rose 0.5 percent.

http://yahoo.reuters.com/stocks/quotecompanynewsarticle.aspx?storyId=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060526:MTFH80783_2006-05-26_07-34-59_WAT627283
Fri May 26, 2006 3:34 AM ET

LONDON, May 26 (Reuters) - Britain's top share index extended its rally on Friday and was on course to end a volatile week higher after miners such as Kazakhmys (KAZ.L: Quote, Profile, Research) rose and as steelmaker Corus (CS.L: Quote, Profile, Research) gained on hopes for sector consolidation after Arcelor announced plans to buy Russian rival Severstal.

<snip>

By 0727 GMT the FTSE 100 share index <.FTSE> was up 65.9 points, or 1.2 percent, at 5,743.6, adding to Thursday's 91-point surge.

Miners -- the driving force behind the benchmark's recent gyrations -- were resurgent, with Antofagasta (ANTO.L: Quote, Profile, Research), Kazakhmys, Anglo American (AAL.L: Quote, Profile, Research) and BHP Billiton (BLT.L: Quote, Profile, Research) all rising more than 3 percent. Dealers said a recent swingeing sell-off was overdone.

But Corus was the standout gainer, adding 5.6 percent after Arcelor said it was buying Severstal in a deal that values Arcelor at 44 euros per share, a premium to the 35.62 euros value of the cash and share offer currently tabled by Mittal.

<snip>

The heavyweight oil sector lent support, with BP (BP.L: Quote, Profile, Research) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L: Quote, Profile, Research) both adding around 1 percent apiece to track gains in crude oil prices buoyed by healthy U.S. economic growth that hinted recent record prices may not hit robust demand.

/more...

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/060526/7/2l4kn.html

(BusinessWeek) As Western European stock markets struggle to form alliances, another bourse consolidation story has quietly been unfolding further to the East. The Wiener Borse, the Vienna Stock Exchange, is leading an effort to create some coherence in Central European and Balkan share trading. If the drive succeeds, investors will get better access to some of the best-performing stock markets in the world. And companies in countries such as Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Romania will get better access to the capital they need to expand outside national borders.

No question the region's exchanges have delivered tantalizing returns. The New Europe Blue Chip Index, which contains the region's biggest listed companies, is up more than 40% from a year ago even after the worldwide stock market declines of late May. But, except for the Warsaw Stock Exchange -- up an impressive 70% from a year ago -- light trading and insufficient liquidity make Central and East European stocks unattractive for many foreign investors.

"There are no capital markets" in Central Europe, says one senior banker in Vienna, with a touch of overstatement. "That is a huge disadvantage." The macroeconomic benefits of a smoothly functioning equity market are well-established. The stock market is the cheapest way for companies to raise capital and studies have shown that vibrant share trading contributes to economic growth.

<snip>

So far, at least, Vienna has had Central Europe pretty much to itself. Sweden's OMX Group, which owns the Stockholm Stock Exchange, is working to knit together the Nordic and Baltic stock exchanges. But the Western European bourses have focused on trying to make deals with each other.

That is the same pattern that has helped Vienna become the de facto capital of Central Europe. While big European corporations spent the last decade focusing on Western Europe, the U.S., or Asia, Austrian companies lacked the resources to be so ambitious. Instead, companies such as Erste Bank, Telekom Austria, or energy provider OMV looked east -- which is where the big growth turned out to be. The Vienna Stock Exchange seems well-positioned to take the same route.

/more...

http://yahoo.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=economicNews&storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060526:MTFH94378_2006-05-26_16-36-26_L26356016
Fri May 26, 2006 12:36 PM ET
By Lincoln Feast

LONDON, May 26 (Reuters) - European stocks ended a volatile week on a positive note on Friday, rising more than 1 percent after data showing contained U.S. inflation soothed interest rate fears, while a rebound in metal prices helped battered miners.

Steelmakers were again in focus after Arcelor (CELR.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) said it planned to buy Russia's Severstal (CHMF.RTS: Quote, Profile, Research).

Arcelor fell 3 percent as traders said the deal was likely to thwart a hostile takeover bid for Arcelor from global sector leader Mittal Steel (ISPA.AS: Quote, Profile, Research), but other steel stocks such as ThyssenKrupp (TKAG.DE: Quote, Profile, Research) and Corus (CS.AS: Quote, Profile, Research) jumped.

The FTSEurofirst 300 index <.FTEU3> closed up 1.8 percent at 1,324.2 points, on healthy turnover of around 3 billion shares.

<snip>

Britain's FTSE 100 <.FTSE> added 2 percent, Germany's DAX <.GDAXI> gained 1.4 percent, and France's CAC 40 <.FCHI> rose 1.9 percent.

The FTSE 100's 2.4 percent weekly rally was the largest for the index since November 2005.

/more...

in its redesigned F-Series. Plenty of people have these things who don't need them, but pickups are extremely practical vehicles for any number of businesses and occupations, most of which have little to do with an office. Remember, Model A and Model T pickups and vans were all the rage back in the old days not to show how macho the driver was, but because the things were so practical. IMHO, the automakers will be selling pickups until they go completely out of business.

I'd like to add that there have been some reasonably successful attempts to put a hydraulic drive system in heavier duty vehicles that would act like the electric regenerative breaking in the Prius, etc. It would dramatically increase city mileage for everything from heavier pickups to garbage trucks. It might even turn out to be better than the electric drive for buses, because the hydraulic system looks as though it will be more efficient in capturing the energy from breaking than the current electric systems. It is something to watch for.

it is very low.

We have a slight incline (some would call it a "hill") and that is maybe a 5 to 9 degree climb. I have been watching that truck struggle up that "hill" now for a year. It's a sad sight.

http://yahoo.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=economicNews&storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060526:MTFH85627_2006-05-26_11-19-06_L26678149

MOSCOW, May 26 (Reuters) - Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin slammed on Friday a draft law that would impose fines on politicians for talking publicly about monetary amounts in dollars when they could use roubles instead.

"The draft law in its present form is absolutely absurd. I regret that United Russia deputies supported it without proper examination," Kudrin told reporters, referring to the pro-Kremlin party which dominates the parliament.

The State Duma, or lower house of parliament, backed the draft on Wednesday in its first reading. It must pass a further two readings but is not expected to change significantly.

The bill envisages a ban on cabinet ministers and parliament deputies mentioning foreign currencies while talking about prices, deals, state and regional budgets as well as debt in public speeches and media interviews.

Some government officials still express large amounts in the U.S. currency, either out of habit or because the smaller dollar sum is easier to visualize.

The offenders would have to pay a fine of up to 5,000 roubles ($185).

Backers of the law say they want to rebuild pride in the Russian currency and draw a line under the years when galloping inflation meant most people did business in dollars.

The rouble has risen 6.7 percent against the dollar this year. President Vladimir Putin has said he wants restrictions on trading in the currency to be lifted by July 1, making it fully convertible.

/more...

http://yahoo.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=economicNews&storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060526:MTFH85308_2006-05-26_11-05-53_SP233455
Fri May 26, 2006 7:05 AM ET
By Tan Ee Lyn

JAKARTA, May 26 (Reuters) - Chickens are dying in unusually large numbers in a remote area in Indonesia where bird flu killed several members of a family, and experts say the first victim in the cluster was probably infected by a diseased chicken.

<snip>

Tests done on samples from pigs, chickens and ducks in the area have been inconclusive and experts have long maintained that nothing can be ruled out. This is the first time that they have narrowed down the likely source to poultry.

"What we're finding out the longer our team stays up in that area is that there are many, many outbreaks in chickens that always go unreported," Steven Bjorge, a WHO epidemiologist.

<snip>

The WHO has stressed that even if human-to-human transmission did occur, it was in a very limited way and the infection had not spread beyond the initial cluster.

In addition, scientific evidence had shown the virus had not mutated into one that can be easily passed among people -- a necessary precursor for a pandemic to start.

/more...

http://yahoo.reuters.com/stocks/quotecompanynewsarticle.aspx?storyId=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060526:MTFH85409_2006-05-26_11-10-06_L26251705
Fri May 26, 2006 7:10 AM ET

MOSCOW, May 26 (Reuters) - The export chief of Russia's gas monopoly Gazprom (GAZP.MM: Quote, Profile, Research) met the head of Japanese engineering firm Chiyoda Corp (6366.T: Quote, Profile, Research) to discuss joint work in liquefied natural gas (LNG), Gazprom said on Friday.

"At the meeting the prospects for cooperation in Gazprom's Shtokman and Baltic LNG projects were discussed," Gazprom said in a statement.

The meeting with Chiyoda, which builds LNG plants, raises the prospect for the second time this week that Gazprom, which is looking for technical know-how for its vast Shtokman LNG project, may be looking to lessen its dependence on foreign equity partners.

Gazprom has said it will offer up to 49 percent of the equity in Shtokman to two or three partners from a shortlist of five: French oil major Total (TOTF.PA: Quote, Profile, Research), Norway's Statoil (STL.OL: Quote, Profile, Research) and Hydro (NHY.OL: Quote, Profile, Research), and U.S. majors ConocoPhillips (COP.N: Quote, Profile, Research), Chevron (CVX.N: Quote, Profile, Research).

But it has repeatedly delayed announcing its final choice of partners and earlier this week said it was in talks with Sempra (SRE.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and BG (BG.L: Quote, Profile, Research) about marketing gas in the United States, calling into question the need for it to offer part of the project to Conoco or Chevron.

/more...

http://yahoo.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=economicNews&storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060526:MTFH86747_2006-05-26_12-02-26_L26327505
Fri May 26, 2006 8:02 AM ET

LONDON, May 26 (Reuters) - One of the world's largest trackers of investment flows is suggesting that the recent sharp correction on global financial markets reflects a shift to caution rather than a mass exodus from all risky assets.

State Street, the U.S. financial services giant, says data gleaned from the $10.7 trillion it administers for investors shows emerging markets have borne the brunt of the selloff but developed markets have been popular.

"The clear message is that investors have turned defensive but this does not amount to wholesale risk aversion," its State Street Global Markets research arm said in a note on Friday. "The picture of markets suggests fears of a dramatic price reversal are wide of the mark."

The data showed particularly marked selling pressure by primarily U.S. investors in commodity-linked markets such as Brazil and China, as well as India, Thailand, South Korea and Poland. Similarly, there has been signficant set forward selling of the Polish zloty, Korean won and Thai baht currencies. But while this has been going on, the mainly U.S. investors have been buying developed world equity markets.

/a bit more...

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/060526/3/2l4he.html

LONDON (Reuters) - Europe's biggest bank, HSBC Holdings Plc , said on Friday its first-quarter results were better than those achieved in the same period last year.

The U.S., Hong Kong and the UK had all performed well and the bank's overall credit experience remains good, John Bond, HSBC executive chairman, said at the bank's annual shareholder meeting. Bond retires after the AGM and will be replaced by Stephen Green, the bank's CEO since June 2003.

<snip>

He said the bank was on track and gaining momentum in its investment in CIBM and that HSBC remained firmly committed to the five-year strategic plan for the unit. "As at the end of the first quarter, the results of all of our customer groups were better than those achieved during the same period last year," Bond said.

Mike Powell, head of global markets at HSBC, told Reuters in an interview earlier on Friday that Europe's largest bank expected first-quarter results from its markets business to match stellar earnings at rivals but warned that investors were in for a volatile summer of trading.

HSBC is three years into a five-year plan to build up its investment banking business and Powell said the departure last week of the division's co-head, John Studzinski, would have only a modest impact on the group's plans. The bank will give a trading update on May 30 ahead of the announcement of first-half results on July 31.

At 1033 GMT, shares in HSBC were up 0.7 percent at 934-1/2 pence, valuing the bank at more than 106 billion pounds ($198 billion).

/more...

http://today.reuters.com/News/newsArticle.aspx?type=topNews&storyID=2006-05-26T003815Z_01_N25269965_RTRUKOC_0_US-BUSH-SNOW.xml

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow, whose future in the Bush administration has been the subject of intense speculation, is likely to step down in mid- to late June, Republican sources said.

The White House is narrowing its choices for a possible successor, with David Mulford, the U.S. ambassador to India, seen as a strong contender, the sources said.

Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez and ex-Commerce chief Don Evans, a close friend of President George W. Bush, are also among those whose names have been circulating for the Treasury position. Other possible contenders who have been mentioned include Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman and former Bush economic adviser Stephen Friedman.


The U.S. media have been abuzz with speculation that Josh Bolten, who took over in April as White House chief of staff, wanted to replace Snow with someone who could be a more forceful spokesman on the economy, preferably someone from Wall Street.

At a news conference on Thursday evening, Bush praised Snow and said the Treasury chief has not indicated that he wanted to leave his post.

"He has not talked to me about resignation," Bush said in response to a reporter's question. "I think he is doing a fine job. After all, our economy is strong." :rofl:

more...

that's interesting timing if it happens.

We need a spray alert when Bush talks about the economy! I know he got his masters in Bidness Administration, and he is good at givin us the bidness...but his sense of humour catches me off guard.

:crazy:

I read this thread every day before work (I'm off today), trying to decide when to get rid of my stocks. I have to admit to being sort of paralyzed by the information. Sadly, I feel like I'll lose money no matter what I do in this kooky economy. Hell, the money seems to be worth less each day anyway!

It really is confusing - part of that confusion comes from the diametrically opposed poles of Wall Street and Main Street.

It appears that if the news is bad for the person on the street (Main, that is), it is good for the Street (Wall).

If employment numbers are crappy, Wall Street cheers because it means that the profits will not be impacted by higher wages - slaves would be best for them - while the person on the street feels disempowered over their reality because they experience the dollar buying less and less and their options for any mobility evaporate.

This is a polar opposite to the period during the 90s when the Street and the street seemed to work together - employment opportunities were better and the markets climbed.

I have to say that I just don't know what to make of it all myself.

Makes me kind of :crazy:

I appreciate all the info that y'all put in this thread - too bad I don't know what to make of a lot of it! :-)

The only thing I can count on is job security - but it's a double edged sword. The bigger the nursing shortage, the harder the job. Plus, I would like to retire someday....sigh.

But, if you're playing the market for short-term gains, you're playing with fire.

Stocks *should* be seen as a long-term vehicle. I don't believe there's any 20-year term that's been down over that 20 years (someone will correct me if I'm wrong, I'm sure ;) )

get out and pay off debt, which I have quite a bit of - being a good American and all....

options for the short term, I never hold them even close or through expiration. The most I hold onto a trade is 10 minutes to 10 days, but usually I make my targets right away - 10% usually and upto - 80% on the "Good Days"

I don't have the patience to hold anything for a while, as I get more experience I plan to start buying and selling LEAPS along with playing calender spreads on those LEAPS- this will be my long term plays, but I still have to develope my patience a little better.

That sounds cool. I only have patience for patients (huh-huh, git it?), not for much else. Maybe I should learn about it.

Any info would be greatly appreciated!

November, I spend about 3 hours a night going through my routine not too mention what I spend in the morning reviewing pre-market information from here and other sources.

I also listen to Bloomberg TV quite often they seem to be less glitzy than CNBC and hence I think they give better more direct info.

Options are VERY VERY tricky but when used correctly you can make money very quickly when the market goes up or down, but you can also lose that $$$ just as quickly so as in all trades including stocks ect.. Before you get into a trade make sure you have an "uncle point" a point that you know if things start to go against you that you are willing to get out with this much pre-determined loss.

I think people get into trades only thinking about what they would like to make on their investments - with good reason, but one should also have a point already set out where they will exit the trade and take a minimal loss. When you hold onto something too long you end up with the mentality "well I have had it this long I guess I will wait and HOPE that it goes back up" Hope is not a good strategy in the market at least it doesn't work for me.

Remember know what you are willing to lose before you EVER EVER get into a trade. The idea behind this is to cut your losses short and let your gains run or keep going until you hit your target price. I won't even go into option trading right now, cause it will make your head melt, at least it did for me for the 1st couple of months. Stick to stocks, I hope this does not break any rules here on the SMW about giving advice on what/what not to trade - I think this is good general advice for all types of trading.

Peace! :)

That was very enlightening! I don't think I'm willing to spend 3 hours a night and work at the hospital too. There's the rub...

Sounds exciting though, and I appreciate the point about knowing when/where you will cut your losses. My family has a history of waiting too long. Company loyalty used to be a good thing back in the day. Not anymore it seems...:hi:

into overweight euro, swiss francs, a few loonies and some yen, back in early december last year. Bought some gold and silver then. I bought some stocks, did some shuffling, then sold almost everything, beginning in Japan, late march/early april. I thought I'd seen the top. I don't do anything sophisticated option-wise. And no leverage, no debt.

Nice to be sitting on the sidelines right now (except for currencies/money-markets, and the precious metals, that is).

I don't think it's too late already to either 1). sell, get out; or 2). wait another 5-10 years for those potential long-term gains (if you can afford the time and if we can avoid global meltdown meanwhile...).

IMHO. :shrug:

about being able to hold on 5-10 years if inflation really gets going. Especially carrying debt like I am. The economy seems to be running on smoke and mirrors at this point and that makes me REALLY nervous!

I met a traveller from an antique land
Who said: "Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desert. Near them on the sand,
Half sunk, a shattered visage lies, whose frown
And wrinkled lip and sneer of cold command
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read
Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,
The hand that mocked them and the heart that fed.
And on the pedestal these words appear:
`My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings:
Look on my works, ye mighty, and despair!'
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare,
The lone and level sands stretch far away.

Percy Bysshe Shelley

(This salute brought about by the poetry of Yeats this a.m. posted by Ghost Dog - reminding me of Shelley - hat tips to all that come to the SMW and join in the fray)

Sorry...been seeing those HeeHaw DVD infomercials lately ;)

:toast:

This is a GREAT thread. Thanks for taking it on! :applause:

:grouphug:

cobwebs out of the brain. I enjoyed the poetry smack down---and you stole my Shelly....hadn't figured the Byron yet. It truly was a golden age of poetry. I tend to Rumi these days when I have time. I always love to travel with a classic, book that is not my hubby. I took the complete works of Shakespear last time I traveled and before that, it was the complete works of Edgar Allen Poe. You have a lot of down time (or at least I do) when I travel overseas so I read or knit/cross stitch when I am not talking to the locals.

I haven't had a chance to thank you for defense of nurses the other day when someone characterized us as "overpaid and spoiled" :wtf:

Talk about your wild generalizations! I tried to get a sense of why he/she felt that way...but frankly it seemed based on personal issues. There are bad nurses just like there are bad teahcers, but by and large this is not the case. I work my tail off and so do most of the nurses I know. The Southeast has the lowest nursing wages in the country, and I don't care where you are, nurses are underpaid. That's why there ain't enough, HELLO!

Anyway, you were very patient and fact-based in your response. Good for you. I just put the person on ignore - a first for me. }(

Did you want to scream when he said "even pro athletes think they're underpaid"??? I sure did. :eyes:

Now as a neonate in the world of economics why is it that......

1) The law of supply and demand apply to everything else but Nursing wages? Our wages were stagnant during the 90's and have only just now inched up. Since there are fewer and fewer of us, we have specialized skill, and work in a physically demanding profession, can't we be paid pro athlete's wages? :evilgrin:

2) Hospitals cut Respiratory Therapy (billable), Lab (billable), Housekeeping (part of room cost), and Patient Transportation (part of room cost), foist it on Nurses but do not increase funding for the Nursing staff to handle the additional workload. Say, who pockets that extra money we Nurses make for the hospital.:mad:

3) Why are Nursing services not billed separately (like a Doc's services) to show income generation as opposed to being added into the of the cost of the room. Yes, that is right folks. Nursing-the folks that are working to save your butt 24/7- are figured into the room cost. We could be an extra bedside table for all the bean counters cared-even though we are money generators.:wow:

4) Why can they afford to redecorate the lobby and CEO suites, but bitch if I use too many dressings or have to stay over to complete charting that is legally necessary to protect myself and the hospital and document the care I gave the patient.:nuke:

5)Why are the pensions that are given the Nurses for years of faithful service so shameful (one Nurse I know got $300 per month for 30 yrs-this was 7 yrs ago). I won't compare the exactly to Doc's, but Hospitals can do better than they do. :wow: :nuke:

It's a mystery. It would be great if all our tasks were billable. I'd be wealthy. Meanwhile, who's asking the administrators to justify their wages? What did they do for you lately?

they have tended to be prosecuting attorneys though:spray:

But it's us overpaid nurses who ruin it for everyone. :sarcasm:

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/4fbe304a-ec1d-11da-b3e2-0000779e2340.html

It was only a matter of time before credit derivatives elbowed their way into companies’ financing decisions.

Banks, hedge funds and others buy and sell the instruments independently of the companies whose bonds underly them. But Reynolds American, the US tobacco group, has structured an on-going debt exchange partly to please owners of credit default swap protection – a kind of insurance that would pay out were the company to default on its debt.

Reynolds is issuing more than $3bn of new debt to fund its $3.5bn acquisition of Conwood, the smokeless tobacco group. In a move that would tidy up its capital structure, it is also offering to exchange $1.5bn of notes at subsidiary RJ Reynolds (RJR), maker of Camel cigarettes, for similar paper issued by Reynolds itself.

In one of the first examples of such a rationale being spelt out in black and white, Reynolds, abbreviated to RAI, notes its intention in its offering memorandum this week: “RJR is not guaranteeing the obligations of RAI under the notes or RAI exchange notes in order to support designation of RAI as a successor to RJR under certain credit default swaps relating to the RJR notes.”

Behind the legalese is a problem that has been bubbling under the surface of the credit derivatives market. Standard credit default swap (CDS) documentation does not envisage every possible corporate financial reshuffle, and the swaps – which can endure five or 10 years, during which a premium is paid continuously – can become worthless if the debt that underlies them ceases to exist.

more...

that really confuses me. It seems the whole thing is rigged and they just make new stuff up to sell people all the time.
:wtf:

how deeply your fund manager may be tangled up in this sort of sh*t. Which shell holds the derivative pea? Did you even know one existed in you're 401K portfolio of funds?

My husband has a 401k, not me. I'm a hired gun - per diem.

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/7bc16bd0-ec1d-11da-b3e2-0000779e2340.html

Rumours of the death of the mutual fund dominance of the US investment industry appear to have been exaggerated. Figures for the first quarter from the Investment Company Institute (ICI), the main trade body for the sector, showed that the total new money flowing into long-term mutual funds reached a record of $116.46bn – $50bn more than the first quarter last year.

A few years ago, investment pundits were predicting the inevitable end of mutual fund dominance. The growing popularity of separate accounts, alternative investment vehicles such as hedge funds, and exchange traded funds, coupled with the rise of online financial firms would one day spell the end of the traditional mutual funds, they said. Industry scandals also helped to damage the sector’s reputation.

Flows for equity funds reached $92.96bn in the first quarter, according to the ICI, below the record $130.2bn set in the first quarter of 2000, when the 1990s bull market reached its peak.

However, that quarter also saw net out-flows from bond funds, which have had strong inflows so far this year.

Estimates from monitoring bodies differ slightly. Financial Research Corporation, the Boston data company, estimated net mutual fund flows totalled $99.5bn in the first quarter of this year, a 38 per cent increase from the first quarter of last year. By comparison, net flows to ETFs totalled $8bn in the first quarter.

more...

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B58E8D883%2D04DC%2D4BBD%2D8886%2D2A1288AF62C7%7D&symbol=

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures rose Friday, extending the recovery from the front-month futures contract's biggest one-day drop earlier in the week.
Gold for June delivery advanced $3.30 to $651.80 an ounce in electronic trading.

On Thursday, gold rallied $11 on the New York Mercantile Exchange after a smaller-than-expected upward revision to first-quarter economic growth estimates weighed on the U.S. dollar, prompting investors to take refuge in the precious metal. Read more.

Despite the two-session rebound, the price has yet to recover even half the $36.20 it lost on Wednesday. Read more.

The U.S. Commerce Department said Friday that personal incomes rose 0.5% in April, but those gains were wiped out by a 0.5% gain in consumer prices. Real disposable incomes -- inflation-adjusted and after-tax incomes -- fell 0.1%.

Core inflation, as measured by the personal consumption expenditure priced index, excluding food and energy, rose 0.2% in April after a 0.3% increase in March. That was in line with expectations. For the past 12 months, however, core inflation rose 2.1%, the fastest gain since March 2005. See Economic Report.

...more...

I wonder what the Corrupted Price Inflation number actually is - without stripping out food and energy?

9:49 AM ET 5/26/06 JUNE GOLD DOWN 50 CENTS AT $648/OZ IN MORNING NY TRADING

9:49 AM ET 5/26/06 JULY SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS, OR 0.6%, AT $12.53/OZ

9:49 AM ET 5/26/06 JULY COPPER CLIMBS 1.25 CENTS TO $3.72/LB

12:46 PM ET 5/26/06 JULY COPPER ENDS AT $3.81/LB, UP 10.75 CENTS FOR THE SESSION

12:46 PM ET 5/26/06 JULY COPPER GAINS 10% FOR THE WEEK

12:29 PM ET 5/26/06 JUNE GOLD CLOSES AT $651/OZ, UP $2.50 FOR THE DAY

12:29 PM ET 5/26/06 JUNE GOLD ENDS THE WEEK 1%, OR $6.50/OZ, LOWER

12:25 PM ET 5/26/06 JULY SILVER CLOSES AT $12.73/OZ, UP 13 CENTS FOR THE DAY

12:25 PM ET 5/26/06 JULY SILVER ENDS THE WEEK WITH A 3% GAIN

(edited to add July copper numbers)

Dow 11,251.96 +40.91 (+0.36%)
Nasdaq 2,205.96 +7.72 (+0.35%)
S&P 500 1,276.41 +3.53 (+0.28%)
10-Yr Bond 5.060 -0.14 (-0.28%)

NYSE Volume 53,821,000
Nasdaq Volume 65,845,000

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.8. Choppiness in pre-market trading now has futures indications back at their best levels, perhaps getting some relief at the positive turnaround in Treasuries. Most notably has been the spike higher in Nasdaq futures, which is getting a boost from follow-buying in eBay, amid a potential deal between Google and Dell, and reports that Juniper Networks will be added to the S&P 500.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.0. Stage remains set for stocks to open on an upbeat note, however, Nasdaq futures are off their best levels as the recent inflation data still leave reason to believe that the Fed will be inclined to keep raising rates since the year/year rate is now above their targeted range. S&P futures, though, hold a more positive bias in large part because General Motors (GM) has been upgraded for the second time this week.

08:33 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.2. Futures market gets a boost following tame inflation data, giving the green light for buyers to extend yesterday's broad-based advance. April personal income rose 0.5%, below forecasts of 0.7%, while personal spending rose 0.6%, in line with expectations. More notably, the core PCE deflator rose 0.2%, not the 0.3% that many feared, to leave a 2.1% year-over-year rate – the first time above 2.0% since March of 2005 but still indicative of contained inflation. Bonds, which were off slightly ahead of the data, have weakened a bit, as the 10-yr note is now down 5 ticks to yield 5.09%.

Dow 11,237.55 +26.50 (+0.24%)
Nasdaq 2,203.42 +5.18 (+0.24%)
S&P 500 1,275.53 +2.65 (+0.21%)
10-Yr Bond 50.60 -0.14 (-0.28%)
NYSE Volume 109,949,000
Nasdaq Volume 127,815,000

or just trading back to the MA's??? who knows with the market - it is what it is

but it has tested and fell back 2X off of the 11,250 number for the DOW - is it a mental thing?

Any news good or bad?

Dow 11,234.91 +23.86 (+0.21%)
Nasdaq 2,201.59 +3.35 (+0.15%)
S&P 500 1,274.50 +1.62 (+0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 5.052 -0.22 (-0.43%)

NYSE Volume 482,334,000
Nasdaq Volume 447,021,000

10:30 am : Major averages are back near opening highs as nine out of 10 economic sectors are trading higher. Financial is providing the bulk of early leadership, as the brokerage group has gotten a boost amid several analyst upgrades (e.g. GS, MER, SCHW). Health Care is also acting as an early source of support, amid renewed enthusiasm for biotechs and HMOs, while a rebound in chip stocks -- one of the few industry groups absent from yesterday's relief rally -- is helping Technology try to get back on the winning track. Energy, however, is showing relative weakness as an analyst downgrade on Occidental Petroleum (OXY 97.14 -0.73) prompts investors to lock in more profits following the sector's strong 3.1% surge yesterday. DJ30 +34.34 NASDAQ +8.13 SOX +1.1% SP500 +3.72 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1008/1567/414 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 936/1953/324 mln

10:00 am : Little changed since the last update as stocks aren't getting much help from a report compiled by The University of Michigan that showed sentiment strengthened slightly in late April. The index inched higher to 79.1 from a preliminary read of 79.0 but is well below the 87.4 level that was reached last month. Also, since there is not a strong correlation between sentiment and actual consumer spending, the report has been relatively ignored as the market continues to view the absence of another disappointment in the core-PCE deflator as good news.DJ30 +24.10 NASDAQ +5.23 SP500 +2.99 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 826/1539/240 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 693/1713/176 mln

on the intraday charts it has tested the 11,250 mark twice if it goes up and tests it again without breaking through we may have it start trading down, unless it keeps putting in higher lows - then we will look for some kind of break out - probably due to news, a sector dominating or bullish mentality.

If the DOW cups and handles up and out past the 11,250 mark then we may have a good afternoon ahead of us

we just hit 11,254 after bumping our head against the 11,250 for several times, lets hope no bad news comes out and we can finish today with a rd up day.

as before lets not see any bad news

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/southflorida/sfl-526dcshooting,0,5814736.story?coll=sfla-home-headlines

WASHINGTON -- Police sealed off the Capitol on Friday amid reports that shots were fired in the garage of a House office building.

Capitol police were investigating ``the sound of gunfire in the garage level of the Rayburn House Office Building,'' said an announcement on the internal Capitol voice alarm system.

The Senate was in session at the time, but the House was not. Rep. Peter Hoekstra, R-Mich., conducting a House Intelligence Committee hearing, interrupted a witness to request those attending the meeting to remain in the room and said the doors must be closed.

``It's a little unsettling to get a Blackberry message put in front of you that says there's gunfire in the building,'' he said. Jeff Connor, a spokesman for Rep. Jo Ann Emerson, R-Mo., said Capitol Hill police notified the office that gunfire was heard in the Rayburn building garage.

snip>

``They said they heard gunfire in the Rayburn garage but this is a huge building, I'm guessing it's a car backfiring or balloons popping.''

11:30 am : Indices extend their reach into positive territory as reports that the U.S. Capitol building has been reopened provides a lift to stocks across the board. Turning in the best performance so far on the Dow is General Motors (GM 28.51 +0.61), which has surged 2.2% after being upgraded for a second time this week. IBM (IBM 80.60 +0.46) recently turning positive and clawing back toward break even for the year, coupled with a 1.3% gain in Merck (MRK 34.82 +0.43) following FDA approval for its shingles vaccine, are also providing early support among the blue chips. DJ30 +57.15 NASDAQ +10.84 SP500 +5.28 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1144/1590/654 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 954/2061/532 mln

high of 29.10 it is currently in limbo around 28.40

I have some Calls out on GM right now so needless to say I have been watching it along with the energy and metal stocks.

searching the news.

hmmmm.... is this real or is it a ruse to look in every office?

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2006-05-26T183420Z_01_N26132300_RTRIDST_0_CONGRESS-GUNFIRE-UPDATE-6.XML

WASHINGTON, May 26 (Reuters) - Police sealed off the U.S. Capitol and searched a mammoth House of Representatives office building room by room on Friday after a report of gunfire in its garage.

No arrests or injuries were reported. One staffer was taken to the hospital suffering a panic attack.

"Right now we want to err on the side of caution," said U.S. Capitol Police spokeswoman Kimberly Schneider.

<snip>

WASHINGTON, May 26 (Reuters) - Police sealed off the U.S. Capitol and searched a mammoth House of Representatives office building room by room on Friday after a report of gunfire in its garage.

No arrests or injuries were reported. One staffer was taken to the hospital suffering a panic attack.

"Right now we want to err on the side of caution," said U.S. Capitol Police spokeswoman Kimberly Schneider.

...more...

it's not all ironed out yet. :shrug:

per the 12:30 blather:

Reports that the police imposed another lockdown on the U.S. Capitol building after briefly reopening it and have found a gunman hiding in the Rayburn building gym

once the posture is achieved.

Lead story on Spanish public radio news this afternoon (those crazy yanks again...¡!)

Wolf! Wolf! It's a boojum!

edit to add:

The Hunting of the Snark
Lewis Carroll
Fit the Eighth - The Vanishing

They sought it with thimbles, they sought it with care;
They pursued it with forks and hope;
They threatened its life with a railway-share;
They charmed it with smiles and soap.

They shuddered to think that the chase might fail,
And the Beaver, excited at last,
Went bounding along on the tip of its tail,
For the daylight was nearly past.

"There is Thingumbob shouting!" the Bellman said,
"He is shouting like mad, only hark!
He is waving his hands, he is wagging his head,
He has certainly found a Snark!"

They gazed in delight, while the Butcher exclaimed
"He was always a desperate wag!"
They beheld him--their Baker--their hero unnamed--
On the top of a neighboring crag.

Erect and sublime, for one moment of time.
In the next, that wild figure they saw
(As if stung by a spasm) plunge into a chasm,
While they waited and listened in awe.

"It's a Snark!" was the sound that first came to their ears,
And seemed almost too good to be true.
Then followed a torrent of laughter and cheers:
Then the ominous words "It's a Boo-"

Then, silence. Some fancied they heard in the air
A weary and wandering sigh
Then sounded like "-jum!" but the others declare
It was only a breeze that went by.

They hunted till darkness came on, but they found
Not a button, or feather, or mark,
By which they could tell that they stood on the ground
Where the Baker had met with the Snark.

In the midst of the word he was trying to say,
In the midst of his laughter and glee,
He had softly and suddenly vanished away---
For the Snark *was* a Boojum, you see.

http://www.literature.org/authors/carroll-lewis/the-hunting-of-the-snark/chapter-08.html


(Don't need no more lies. Do need this freedom of expression.)

appearances and all?

The Bellman, who was almost morbidly sensitive about appearances, used to have the bowsprit unshipped once or twice a week to be revarnished, and it more than once happened, when the time came for replacing it, that no one on board could remember which end of the ship it belonged to. They knew it was not of the slightest use to appeal to the Bellman about it-- he would only refer to his Naval Code, and read out in pathetic tones Admiralty Instructions which none of them had ever been able to understand-- so it generally ended in its being fastened on, anyhow, across the rudder. The helmsman used to stand by with tears in his eyes; he knew it was all wrong, but alas! Rule 42 of the Code, "No one shall speak to the Man at the Helm," had been completed by the Bellman himself with the words "and the Man at the Helm shall speak to no one." So remonstrance was impossible, and no steering could be done till the next varnishing day. During these bewildering intervals the ship usually sailed backwards.



http://www.literature.org/authors/carroll-lewis/the-hunting-of-the-snark/preface.html

Gracias.

Tramp is too kind. The old seahag is a witch, who took the seed of Satan to spawn the demon boy. See the resemblance...

"The report is that shots were fired" at 10:30 a.m. EDT in the garage of the Rayburn House Office Building, said Capitol Police spokeswoman Sgt. Kimberly Schneider.

"We have not gotten any reports of anybody being captured, anybody being arrested." She also said there were no reports of injuries.

On high alert, police lined the street between the Capitol and the Rayburn building, rifles prominently displayed, and four ambulances, two firetrucks and other emergency vehicles were on standby outside the office structure.

Schneider said the search and police deployment was triggered by a single telephone call from an unidentified individual. Police had no other confirmation of gunfire, she said at a noon EDT news conference.


http://www.orlandosentinel.com/sns-ap-capitol-gunfire,0,7609044.story?coll=orl-news-headlines-volusia

http://www.newswatch50.com/news/national/story.aspx?content_id=DA12FA53-FA92-4A80-BA5D-1A77CABF0134

CAPITOL HILL (AP) - Police are continuing a floor-by-floor search of the Rayburn House Office Building across from the U.S. Capitol building, hours after an unidentified caller reported hearing gunfire.

Police say there are no injuries and no arrests, and that they haven't confirmed that any shots were actually fired. They twice sealed off the Capitol building itself, but they now say the only building that's locked-down is the Rayburn building.

Lawmakers and staffers have been told to stay in their offices. The gunfire scare interrupted a hearing of the House Intelligence Committee. Members, staffers, witnesses and others are still inside the hearing room, waiting for the all-clear.

snip>

One woman was seen being taken away by ambulance from the Rayburn building. A congressional office says the woman was an employee who had been in the building's gymnasium when the episode began, and was a bit shaken-up by it all.

after lunch as they take off early. I'm not so sure this isn't another typical pump and dump before the long week-end - we'll have to wait and see. :shrug:

either way things will be dying off in the early afternoon

thank you

Just got another one - this time from UNITED STATES NAVY VETERANS ASSOCIATION

http://www.navyvets.org/id64.html

I have to say that during the Clinton Administration's tenure, I received none of the begging calls from military branches that needed "help" to support our troops. And that was supposedly when "Clinton was destroying the military". Now they have their dream commander who "understands" the military and "talks" their talk and they are BEGGING me for more than my tax dollars to "support" their military needs????

Does anyone else see how stupid this is???

Do these callers understand how very much they PISS ME OFF????

Military spending has increased over 38% under this mal-administration and they want me to give more????

I stood against this illegal war and as much as I care about the dead and dying and disturbed and injured military members, I cannot believe they continue to parrot this mal-administration's claims that this is good.

The day the active military personnel - from the generals on down - stand against the BFEE, I might change my mind.

:rant:

I've always loved reading Jim Hightower...

http://www.truthout.org/docs_2006/052406E.shtml

snip>

Nearly 80 years after Brandeis's warning, the zealots have been brought in from the far-right fringe on the golden chariot of George W, and they've shown that they have no understanding of the essence of America, which includes our hard-won liberties, our rule of law and our system of checked-and-balanced governmental power.

But these men of zeal - Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, et al. - are hardly well-meaning. They are deliberately and determinedly striving to impose the AntiAmerica on our own land - an unrecognizable America of supreme executive authority, constant surveillance of the citizenry, secret government and suppression of dissent. Their chief weapon is fear. They feverishly wave the bloody flag of 9/11, shouting that the citizenry must surrender liberties or be attacked again by The Madmen, that we mustn't question authority for this only encourages The Madmen, that all government operations must be cloaked in a dark veil of secrecy to keep The Madmen off balance, and that executive and police power must drastically expand to protect us from The Madmen.

While claiming that they must "secure" America for a post-9/11 world, the BushCheney zealots are taking us back to a pre-1776 world. They have been astonishingly successful in a remarkably short time, insidiously taking autocratic step after step, which a compliant Congress and the establishment media have mostly missed, ignored, minimalized or applauded. These two "institutions of vigilance" have failed us. So it is up to "We The People" to assert ourselves against this dangerous rise of authoritarianism in Bush's America.

The Spook Society

"You can fool some of the people all the time, and those are the ones you have to concentrate on," George W said with a laugh at Washington's Gridiron dinner in 2001.

If only we'd known then that behind George's snickers, the Bushites were serious. Employing a combination of deceit, defiance, arrogance, flag-waving and secrecy, they have fooled a majority of Congress and the media into accepting the overlay of a "spook society" on our "Land of the Free." The far-reaching extent of their efforts are only now becoming clear.

more...

Dow 11,257.96 +46.91 (+0.42%)
Nasdaq 2,205.71 +7.47 (+0.34%)
S&P 500 1,277.30 +4.42 (+0.35%)
10-Yr Bond 5.052 -0.22 (-0.43%)

NYSE Volume 991,492,000
Nasdaq Volume 858,905,000

12:30 pm : No real change in overall sentiment as the afternoon session gets underway but the indices are off their best levels. Reports that the police imposed another lockdown on the U.S. Capitol building after briefly reopening it and have found a gunman hiding in the Rayburn building gym, appears to bave stalled some of the market's momentum. Nonetheless, the pullback has been modest at best as the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq maintain the bulk of their intraday gains. DJ30 +50.51 NASDAQ +7.35 SP500 +4.42 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1189/1614/836 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 945/2142/700 mln

12:00 pm : Market is holding steady near session highs midday as investors perceive the absence of a worse than expected read on core inflation as good news. Before the bell, the Commerce Dept. showed that an inflation measure closely-watched by the Fed -- the core-PCE deflator -- rose 0.2%. While that wasn't a great number as it relates to Fed policy, since it puts the year/year increase above the Fed's comfort zone of 1 3/4% to 2% and leaves the door open for policy makers to keep tightening, a figure less than what so many had feared is easing some of the excessive fears that have weighed on the market over the last few weeks.

With regard to industry strength, upside leadership from all 10 economic sectors is also providing some relief and helping offset early reports of gun shots being fired at the U.S. Capitol building as follow-through buying efforts across the board further underscore a sense that stocks are oversold on a near-term basis. Financial is providing the bulk of early support, as the brokerage group gets a boost amid several analyst upgrades (e.g. GS, MER, SCHW). Health Care is another major sector trading higher, amid renewed enthusiasm for biotech and HMOs as well reports of some FDA approvals (e.g. MRK and CELG). A rebound in semiconductor, an influential area that has lagged the market of late and one of only a few industry groups absent from yesterday's relief rally is helping Technology pare some of its year-to-date losses. To wit, the tech-heavy Nasdaq has now inched its way back into positive territory for the year. DJ30 +61.41 NASDAQ +11.30 SP500 +5.97 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1033/1724/760 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 809/2223/630 mln

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hamilton/hamilton052606.html

snip>

The US stock markets have been generally either powering or grinding higher since March 2003, when the war rally launched the day Washington started bombing Baghdad. What was initially a sharp relief surge has blossomed into a full-blown cyclical bull market since. While very profitable for those who have been long, the recent sharp decline is causing growing concerns about what is likely to come next.

Since investors are far more likely to consider controversial market theses after a fast decline shakes their confidence, I'd like to revisit the contrarian view of the US stock markets. Even though the Dow 30 is up a very impressive 55% since March 2003, like most contrarian students of market history I believe we are actually languishing in a secular bear market today. Hogwash you say? Perhaps, but please read on.

Stock markets move in great cycles throughout history. Sometimes stocks are universally loved as in early 2000 while at other times they are universally loathed as in 1982. These cycles are extraordinarily important for long-term stock investors to understand. They are most readily evident when viewing the stock markets in valuation terms, how much investors are paying for stocks relative to those stocks' underlying earnings power.

When investors are discouraged about stocks as they were in the early 1980s, stocks fall to very low levels relative to the earnings they can spin off. The general stock markets typically have a price-to-earnings ratio near 7.0x at these major secular bottoms. Conversely when investors grow euphoric about stocks as in the late 1990s, they can rapidly bid up market P/Es above 28x earnings. This slowly oscillating psychology dynamic creates the great cycles dominating market history.

Never much for fancy academic titles, I call these long valuation waves simply Long Valuation Waves. An entire valuation wave generally runs for a third of a century or so. So about every 33 to 34 years, stocks can move from undervalued to overvalued and back again or vice versa. Each one of these waves can be split in half too, yielding 17-year great bull markets as we saw from 1982 to 2000 and their subsequent 17-year great bears.

Now if you are a stock investor and you haven't yet studied Long Valuation Waves, you are putting yourself at an almost insurmountable disadvantage relative to someone who has. If this concept isn't familiar to you, I strongly urge you to read an overview essay on this crucial topic I wrote last August called "Long Valuation Waves 2." Out of all my voluminous research work, I believe this is easily the single most important topic for investors to understand and internalize.

more...

at this point?

Will they keep that valuation wave from continuing to recede?

used to say, "Don't fool with Mother nature" (or something to that effect). They may be able to keep the dance going, but sooner or later you gotta pay the fiddler. Unless it really is "different this time". Bwahahahahaha :rofl:

:eyes:

looks like the DOW is gonna finish for a 3rd up day unless something happens, I am out of here !!!!

I hope to get most of the small stuff moved this weekend and save the big stuff for this next week.
Roland-I like my brauts done, and Real BBQ ribs involve beef/not pork.Have a good on all you hard working Marketeers. Take a moment to remember and do something for a Vet.

I'll end up pink as a hotdog, myself, come next week. :)


Enjoy, everyone!

Dow 11,271.89 +60.84 (+0.54%)
Nasdaq 2,209.16 +10.92 (+0.50%)
S&P 500 1,279.98 +7.10 (+0.56%)
10-yr Bond 50.52 -0.22 (-0.43%)
30-yr Bond 51.57 -0.15 (-0.29%)
NYSE Volume 1,385,106,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,189,111,000

2:30 pm : Market regains some upside traction, breaking out of its four-hour trading range. While nothing specific can be attributed to the renewed wave of afternoon buying interest, the fact that two weeks of consolidation extended beyond a fundamental reaction to an extra 0.1% on the core CPI continues to underscore that stocks remain at very reasonable valuations. BTK +2.0% DJ30 +62.35 NASDAQ +11.33 SOX +0.7% SP500 +7.18 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1163/1760/1.16 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 943/2217/980 mln

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 2244 (67%) 1778 (57%)
Declines 919 (27%) 1146 (37%)
Unchanged 141 (4%) 155 (5%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 1044 (79%) 757 (66%)
Down Vol* 257 (19%) 359 (31%)
Unch. Vol* 10 (0%) 23 (2%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 39 75
New Lo's 80 41

Selling their wares.

At 3:11
Dow 11,267.88 +56.83 (+0.51%)
Nasdaq 2,206.77 +8.53 (+0.39%)
S&P 500 1,279.15 +6.27 (+0.49%)
10-yr Bond 50.52 -0.22 (-0.43%)
30-yr Bond 51.57 -0.15 (-0.29%)
NYSE Volume 1,508,429,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,289,082,000

3:00 pm : Recent spike to afternoon highs is short-lived as the indices pull back to within their intraday ranges but keep a bullish bias intact. As evidenced in the A/D line, advancers still hold a more than 2-to-1 edge over decliners on the NYSE while those on the Nasdaq hold a 17-to-12 margin. It is worth noting though that with geopolitical worries still looming, as is typical going into a holiday weekend, late-day volatility which has dictated the day's outcome over the last several sessions could prompt investors to lock in some of the day's gains.DJ30 +50.35 NASDAQ +6.91 SP500 +5.38 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1223/1718/1.26 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 939/2227/1.06 bln

Dow 11,278.77 +67.72 (+0.60%)
Nasdaq 2,209.04 +10.80 (+0.49%)
S&P 500 1,280.10 +7.22 (+0.57%)
10-Yr Bond 5.052 -0.22 (-0.43%)

NYSE Volume 1,615,415,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,379,503,000

3:30 pm : Stocks are still hanging in there, as all three major averages continue to sport respectable gains considering the market's inability of late to piece together any sort of winning streak. The bulk of sector leadership remains positive going into the close, led by gains of more than 1.0% in Materials and Telecom, as Consumer Staples remains the only sector failing to take part in the day's buying efforts. A 3.0% decline in Anheuser-Busch (BUD 45.40 -1.41), as evidenced by the S&P 500 Brewers Index turning in the day's worst performance (-2.1%), remains the sector's biggest source of weakness. DJ30 +63.42 NASDAQ +10.34 SP500 +6.99 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1229/1721/1.34 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1007/2204/1.15 bln

Have a great weekend everyone!

See you Tuesday!

:hi:

AAAAAAAAIIIIIIIIIEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Highlights

Current:



30-day and 90-day vs.greenback:



30-day vs. Euro, Yen, UK Pound and Swiss Franc




Currency Comparison: http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Detailed analysis: http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD

Up-to-the-minute graph: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CD.H06&v=s

Historical values http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2006-04-26 Wednesday, April 26 0.887233 USD
2006-04-27 Thursday, April 27 0.890076 USD
2006-04-28 Friday, April 28 0.892618 USD
2006-05-01 Monday, May 1 0.898473 USD
2006-05-02 Tuesday, May 2 0.903424 USD
2006-05-03 Wednesday, May 3 0.903179 USD
2006-05-04 Thursday, May 4 0.903669 USD
2006-05-05 Friday, May 5 0.903261 USD
2006-05-08 Monday, May 8 0.899604 USD
2006-05-09 Tuesday, May 9 0.907276 USD
2006-05-10 Wednesday, May 10 0.908678 USD
2006-05-11 Thursday, May 11 0.910001 USD
2006-05-12 Friday, May 12 0.90212 USD
2006-05-15 Monday, May 15 0.897505 USD
2006-05-16 Tuesday, May 16 0.899928 USD
2006-05-17 Wednesday, May 17 0.899604 USD
2006-05-18 Thursday, May 18 0.89214 USD
2006-05-19 Friday, May 19 0.890313 USD
2006-05-22 Monday, May 22 0.893336 USD
2006-05-23 Tuesday, May 23 0.894935 USD
2006-05-24 Wednesday, May 24 0.890631 USD
2006-05-25 Thursday, May 25 0.903179 USD
2006-05-26 Friday, May 26 0.903179 USD



Analysis

One of the websites I use for most of my numbers appears to be busted and displaying a test pattern.

The graphs on the main site, however, are up to date except for the greenback and they show the loonie on a steady pattern of growth over the last few days.

Dow 11,278.61 +67.56 (+0.60%)
Nasdaq 2,210.37 +12.13 (+0.55%)
S&P 500 1,280.16 +7.28 (+0.57%)
10-yr Bond 50.52 -0.22 (-0.43%)
30-yr Bond 51.57 -0.15 (-0.29%)
NYSE Volume 1,815,407,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,569,363,000

4:20 pm : For a third straight day, reasonable valuations continued to whet the appetites of bargain hunters and those hoping that the market low reached on Wednesday was in fact the bottom so many have been waiting for. After slipping below the 11,000 level for the time since early March just two days ago, the Dow powered back to lead the way among the majors, ending a two-week losing streak and tacking on nearly 300 points since bottoming out at 10,980 on Wednesday. :eyes:

Providing some of the early market support that carried broad-based efforts into the close was the fact that the latest read on core inflation was not worse than expected. Before the bell, the Commerce Dept. showed that an inflation measure closely-watched by the Fed -- the core-PCE deflator -- rose 0.2%. While that wasn't a great number as it relates to Fed policy, since it put the year/year increase above the Fed's comfort zone of 2.0% (range is 1 3/4% to 2%) and left the door open for policy makers to keep raising rates, a figure less than what so many had feared helped ease some of the excessive fears that have weighed on the market over the last few weeks.

In contrast to most of the week, which was whipsawed by volatile price movements, especially late in the day, stocks held their ground in a relatively tight trading range throughout most of the session Friday. However, while stocks extending their winning streak to three days offered some reassurance that two weeks of broad-based selling was overdone, below average volume lent little conviction behind the day's modest gains. To wit, volume on the Nasdaq didn't surpass 1.0 bln shares until 2:00 ET while the NYSE finally saw 1.0 bln shares trade hands with only an hour left in the trading day as market participation continued to dry up in anticipation of the extended Memorial Day weekend.

With regard to industry strength, upside leadership from all 10 economic sectors is provided some relief and helped offset early reports of gun shots being fired at the U.S. Capitol building as follow-through buying efforts across the board further underscored a sense that stocks are oversold on a near-term basis. The Materials, Telecom and Utilities sectors paced the way higher, as each gained about 1.0%. However, leadership from the three least influential sectors on the SnP 500 also spoke to the fact that stocks didn't put together an even more impressive performance. The Financials sector, which accounts for more than twice the combined weighting of all three was the biggest source of support behind the market's ongoing recovery efforts. Financial got its biggest boost from the brokerage group after analysts upgraded Goldman Sachs (GS 152.80 +5.48), Merrill Lynch (MER 72.79 +1.31) and Charles Schwab (SCHW 16.85 +0.39).

Health Care was another major sector providing influential leadership. Aside from rebounds in HMOs and Medical Equipment, Pharmaceuticals benefited from renewed enthusiasm in Merck (MRK 34.67 +0.28), which won FDA approval for its shingles vaccine. Biotech got a boost after Celgene (CELG 41.46 +1.02) was granted accelerated FDA approval for drug to treat multiple myeloma. A rebound in semiconductor, an influential area that has lagged the market of late and one of only a few industry groups absent from Thursday's relief rally, was a notable source of support behind Technology's efforts to pare some of its year-to-date losses. Dell (DELL 24.81 +0.51) regaining some upward momentum after it struck a deal with Google (GOOG 381.35 -1.64), especially since hitting a three-year low last week, also helped the tech-heavy Nasdaq inch its way back into positive territory for the year. BTK +2.0% DJ30 +67.56 DJTA +0.6% DJUA +1.2% DOT +0.1% NASDAQ +12.13 NQ100 +0.4% R2K +0.5% SOX +0.8% SP400 +0.7% SP500 +7.28 XOI +0.6% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1210/1777/1.56 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 943/2252/1.34 bln

Now, when is that Iran invasion? 6/6, 6/7?

Gold has increased 141% in price since the Bush dictatorship came to power. Much better than the DJI or the S&P 500.