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Zogby: Giuliani Beats Schumer in Senate Polling

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ProgressiveOne Donating Member (110 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-21-03 12:17 PM
Original message
Zogby: Giuliani Beats Schumer in Senate Polling
Excerpt:

If the race for New York State’s senior U.S. Senate seat was held today, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, a Republican, would beat the incumbent Democrat Charles Schumer, 52 – 43%. The actual contest, with no declared candidates at this point, will be in November 2004. The poll of 706 likely voters in New York State was conducted November 12-15 by Zogby International, and has a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points.

This is in heavily-Democratic New York. How reliable is Zogby's work?


Link: Zogby News
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CMT Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-21-03 12:19 PM
Response to Original message
1. Zogby's is not the only poll which has showed this result
Rudy is popular statewide becuz the media made him out to be a hero. Still I doubt he will challenge Schumer. Schumer has a huge warchest and is popular in his own right. Nine-point lead is not insurmountable.
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bluestateguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-21-03 12:19 PM
Response to Original message
2. Good for him
He's not running. Does the media like running polls of non-candidates? Giuliani may be itching for a race with Hillary in 3 years, but even that I doubt. He'd have to take a big pay cut as a senator, and I don't think he wants that.
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BayCityProgressive Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-21-03 12:33 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. Rudy
would go down in flaming defeat against Hillary Clinton. She is equally as well known and all she would have to do is tie Rudy to Bush's policies and he would be toast. I really don't think Hillary will EVER be unseated. She will be the next Ted Kennedy. She will be like a cross to a vampire for the Right and a big fundraiser for the Left.
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PROGRESSIVE1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-21-03 01:43 PM
Response to Original message
4. What is this??? I'm sick and tired of....
hearing about Giulliani!!!

If he were a Democrat, the media would never have made him into a hero DAMN IT!!!!

:puke:
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0007 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-21-03 01:51 PM
Response to Original message
5. I don't believe this one for one minute!
Not unless there is some dirt on Schumer that I'm not aware of, naw this is just crazy propaganda.
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DeepModem Mom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-21-03 02:21 PM
Response to Original message
6. If Rudy wants the Senate seat....
I'm afraid he has a very good chance of getting it. He's still a hero in NY. He's made millions already, and I think it's possible that he and Judi might decide that they would enjoy the Senate, and the D.C. social circuit. New Yorkers often elect the kind of moderate Republicans who run in the state -- they hold both the State House and Gracie Mansion now.

I hope Rudy won't run -- losing Schumer would be a tremendous loss for New York, the Senate, and the country.
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ijk Donating Member (73 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-21-03 02:36 PM
Response to Original message
7. Early polls
Before anyone's actually started running, name-recognition dominates a poll like this. Giuliani is much better known in New York than Schumer, despite Chuck's long record in NY politics. When the contest actually occurs, that issue mostly vanishes. Which doesn't mean Giuliani couldn't win, although I would expect turnout to favor the democrat in NY in 2004.
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PATRICK Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-21-03 02:53 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. Guilano
hasd become a one-dimensional candidate for moneyraising purposes. Not being a movie star maybe that would dissolve, but our elecorate is capable of occasional lunacy. Only, the Senators are removed(usually) from the fratricidal stumbling of local Dem party officials. And Guiliani is not one with the Pataki/D'Amato gang.
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piece sine Donating Member (931 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-21-03 03:04 PM
Response to Reply #7
9. in the City, of course...
but conservative upstate....another story. Since nearly everyone here has been wrong about nearly all major election outcomes since 2000, maybe -- just maybe -- we should view these polls more soberly, as warnings not jokes! Zogby polls leans very, very Democratic and always have. This is a very alarming news. Rudy is overwhelmingly popular in NY State and city ....
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DeepModem Mom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-21-03 03:29 PM
Response to Reply #9
10. I believe Zogby called 2000 for Gore.....
and is the most reliable of the pollsters.
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JeebusH Donating Member (212 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-21-03 03:34 PM
Response to Original message
11. Rudy really wants to be Gov.
he wouldn't have the temperment for the Senate and he knows it ... being Gov. is what he wants
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mobuto Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-21-03 03:38 PM
Response to Original message
12. Meaningless
Edited on Fri Nov-21-03 03:41 PM by mobuto
Right now, voters are thinking of him as Giuliani-God, who acted all presidential while the President was hiding out God-knows-where.

In any campaign, Schumer would quickly put him back in his place as Giuliani-man, reminding voters - upstate voters especially - of their dislike for him.

I think Giuliani could beat Schumer or any Democrat, but Schumer would still have an excellent chance. Of course, Chuck Schumer is a pretty formidable guy in his own right, and has money and brains up the wazoo.

I may be wrong, but I don't think Rudy's going to run against him.
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Snellius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-21-03 03:45 PM
Response to Original message
13. Before 9/11 New Yorkers couldn't wait for Giuliani to go
Giuliani was on his way out as mayor when 9/11 hit. His sleazy divorce, his petulant censorship of art exhibits, his increasingly draconian "life issues" rules, his theatrical tantrums. Good riddance.

The problem here may be Schumer. National Democrats respect him but, though he is not disliked, New Yorkers are not overly enthusiastic either. I'll bet a majority do not even know who he is.
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jiacinto Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-21-03 05:58 PM
Response to Original message
14. He will probably wait to run against Hillary in 2006
Or against Sptizer for Governor in 2006. He is probably waiting for an open seat.

But if he does run he could beat Schumer. However, that race would come down to the wire.
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jiacinto Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-21-03 06:02 PM
Response to Original message
15. He will probably run against Hillary in 2006
Or against Sptizer for Governor in 2006. He is probably waiting for an open seat.

But if he does run he could beat Schumer. However, that race would come down to the wire
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madddog Donating Member (302 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-21-03 07:38 PM
Response to Reply #15
16. oooppppsss
if that's true, Chuck better look out...I don't think there's a seat besides Hillary's that the repubs would rather grab. There will be TONS of money going into that race.
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Frodo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-21-03 08:43 PM
Response to Reply #15
17. Why wouldn't he run now and then for Gov in '06?
Pataki could name his replacement (placating Pataki, who never particularly liked Rudy) and then run against Hillary in 2006.

Those two are the only two solid state-wide candidates for the republicans in NY (and both could be formidable) and both seem to want to seek further office. Either or both probably considers himself a solid VP candidate for 2008, Giuliani would be particularly "attractive" if he had spent two years as a Senator and two as Governor of NY. It could put NY in play.
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