Did Florida's Bush overreact over anemic Alberto?

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-06-14T220708Z_01_N14255939_RTRIDST_0_WEATHER-ALBERTO-FLORIDA.XML

MIAMI, June 14 (Reuters) - Did Florida Gov. Jeb Bush cry wolf this week by declaring a state of emergency even before Tropical Storm Alberto created one? Maybe, but maybe not, say disaster experts.

Alberto, the first cyclone of what is expected to be a busy 2006 Atlantic hurricane season, was advertised as a potentially deadly monster. But it turned out to be a wimp.

Bush, younger brother of U.S. President George W. Bush, was clearly unwilling to take any chances after last year's Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans. So when forecasters warned that Alberto could become the year's first hurricane, he put Florida under a state of emergency and 20,000 people were ordered to evacuate their homes.

<snip>

Encouraging residents to panic over mere tropical storms, or even weak hurricanes, which pose only a moderate threat can have consequences, disaster experts say. The next time a storm comes through, residents suffering "storm fatigue" may ignore the warnings to get out of harm's way.

"I think what it does is send the wrong message," said Norris Beren, executive director of the Emergency Preparedness Educational Institute.

"We're going to get hurricane fatigue coming into play very quickly. The next time it happens ... people are going to say, 'Ah hell, I've been through this before. I'm not doing this again.'"

...more...

Dont forget how a "weak" Hurricane Charlie became a monster in a litle over 90 minutes.

I think people who live there and have gone through them know better than that dumbass if they should stay or go. If I am ever in that situation again, I will use my own judgment in deciding whether or not to leave. Frankly, this storm really didn't have the potential to become a monster. This time of year, the water isn't that warm yet, and the thing looked so disorganized from beginning to end, I would not have hesitated to stay put.

but it is a damn if you do and damn if you don't situation.

"Alberto, the first cyclone of what is expected to be a busy 2006 Atlantic hurricane season, was advertised as a potentially deadly monster."

And who did all this hysterical advertising, pray tell? Why yes, the very mainstream media that is now laughing and pointing the finger at the "overreaction."

How silly the Florideans were to take anything the MSM says seriously.

I'd rather he err on the side of caution.

seriously. One of the major reasons why evacuations weren't called sooner and more often in the past was because cost was the only issue considered. Lives are more important. Jeb as governor did his job.

The Weather Channel and others saying, just a maybe 50mph "rain event". @2 hours later it was just under hurricane force, and growing.

I live right on the coast.

a monster hurricane

We are simply having lots of rain here in Virginia from the storm.

Cry "wolf" too often and people will start to ignore you!

for days the media pounds on the "weather".........blabbing about flooding and such.......hell the areas that flood....do so in the summer thunderstorms.........peoploe are not stupid.....we know when to leave.....but for a little rain storm...and thats all it was a tropical storm.....the hype was way way overboard....

and this is why people doubt the news media.....and doubt bush......because they cry "wolf" too often

The repubes simply MUSt continue to prove how "careful and well prepared" they are/were and how miserable Louisiana (under democRAT control) were.

Barbour was on some talk show the other night, and sang high praises to FEMA and the bush admin and continued to slam democRAT governor Blanco and democRAT mayor Nagin..

It;s all politics..even preservation of life means nothing to them.. It's all about showing how "good" they are and how "bad" we are..

They were mostly elderly and the poor. The only saving grace is that the Mississippi coast was never as heavily populated as New Orleans. That's the only reason why so few died in Mississippi compared to Louisiana.

:rofl:

He reminded me of his brother during 9/11. Just totally in command. His brother will always be the 9/11 President. 9/11. Bush. 9/11.

He did the right thing. These sstorms can get bad in a hurry. Better to err on the side of safety than have to puck dead bodies from the swamps.

Mz Pip
:dem:

It's better to be over-prepared than under-prepared or not prepared at all.

If it had been a monster hurricane and they were not prepared, people would have had a field day, and rightfully so.

But was it a prudent overreaction? I'd say yes.

There is, of course, a danger in crying wolf and overreacting in that some of the dopier folks may say at the next hurricane warning "Yeah, right. Just like Alberto, and that was no great shakes." And they will stay put when the evacuation order comes down.

But all in all, early in the season, I'd have to say on balance it's better to evacuate prematurely even if it's just for practice. Learn from the Alberto experience, and when something worth getting out of the way of comes along, do better than you did this time.

Its important to take it all seriously. With the storms are tornados, lightening, power lines that come down from gusts of wind and an ineffective government support system. At the minimum, it takes them a day or more to begin moving in emergency supplies. I used to be the first one to have a "hurricane" party. Now I keep three days of supplies and I have an escape plan.

Proof that an old Bush CAN learn new tricks, given sufficient reinforcement and motivation!

Hoodathunkit?

Since hurricanes and tropical storms are becoming more frequent, we need to find better ways to deal with these storms. For example, people in flood prone areas need to get their house up off the ground if they can. Make sure you have enough food and water and that you can go without electric for at least a week...

We shouldn't turn storms that aren't even a Cat 1 into national emergencies. Save it for the big ones like Katrina and Rita. With the forecasting as good as it is at this point, we usually have 3-4 days to get ready for the big ones.

But hey, it's only #1. There will be more.

while they can forecast the path fairly well, even the National Hurricane Center will tell you that forecasting storm strength is horrible (Alberto is a good example).

Storms in that section of the Gulf with extremely warm currents can grow quickly (forget 3-4 days). Hurricane Opal in 1995 did a record strengthening in less than 24 hours to a Cat 5.

Also, remember that section of the Gulf is EXTREMELY prone to storm surge, so even a small storm can cause a LOT of problems.

that this storm was going to be anything more then a Cat 1.

is very sallow and even a Cat 1 (while normally no real problem) can be a big problem. St. Marks was devastated by only tropical storm conditions a year ago and remember that 48 hours before there was absolutely no indications this storm would even survive.

Remember, they CAN'T predict storm strength worth a damn.

there was a hour special about what a great governor he is. And his reaction after Katrina last year was not great when Wilma hit. Hurricanes are nothing to mess with. But the bush family is filled with the creeps of two centuries.

own decisions. First of all the Weather Channel and local weather stations act like the storm will be making "landfall" at the point when it is completely past. The first hit from the northeast quadrant is the worst of any hurricane, and for cat 1-2, maybe 3 after that passes by it is about over. There are usually tornadoes at that point, but people make their own judgements about evacuating and when to do it. They want the public clinging to the tv for days on end, after they have cleaned the store shelves of plywood, tunafish, batteries, etc.

:rofl:

Life down here

You know, the wind blows around this general area an average of 80-150mph per day over the last couple of years. Aliens in faraway galaxies have been known to look through their powerful telescopes and confuse Jupiter with Earth lately. That big constant storm is always brewing in the same place on both planets. But people in this area have done a great job of getting adjusted to it (I guess the Jupiter people couldn’t handle it). We actually build new homes as the old ones next door blow away. That’s just raw material for the subdivision up the road, which is blowing apart. Most have learned to keep their footing while out for a walk wearing really heavy lead boots as a fashion statement. Some things have changed however. We now call walking the dog “flying a fur kite”.

Each home along the gulf coast now has its own “shingle dude”. He lives on and is physically tethered to the roof. He nails down new shingles as the old ones blow off. The Wal-Marts no longer have little bank branches up front. They have been replaced by FEMA withdrawal locations. In fact, I’m the only person in the area who hasn’t figured out how to qualify for unlimited new electronic stuff for my living room. Everyone else has a personal Best Buy conveyer belt that tracks to his home. No UPS needed. As the old wide-screen floats away in the continuous flood, the new, bigger one arrives from Best Buy.

Driving is still tough though. The cars are still made by big corporations who aren’t hurricane sensitive or caring toward the “wind challenged”. The cars still get blown all over the roads on the way to and from handouts. But we are widening the roads to allow for this “drift”. And we are lobbying for floating car-boats. Gas prices haven’t caught up to national levels around here. First, those little plastic numbers on the street side gas signs blow away as soon as they are put up. Second, there actually isn’t any gas to buy. The people who have gas have hijacked Sunoco Tanker trucks from Texas and stashed them in their back yards. That stuff is free if you know the password and handshake…and a young expendable good-looking daughter. But you can only kidnap so many teen girls before the police swim up to you and gargle questions. Another good thing…few fingerprints here.

Many folks had trouble adapting to the new food limitations of living in this area. Outside the lucky washed up live fish in the living room to tackle, there really is only canned sardines, Hormel Chili and Spegetios combined with Coleman propane heat. Sometimes you can get decent Mexican if the storm goes thru the Yucatan first. I once thought those Japanese who spend millions to have icebergs shipped to them were wasteful. Not anymore. We literally lost the recipe for ice. Now, it’s extra to have bottled water poured in cellophane with rubber bands to hold it in…and dropped in your drink to pretend it’s cooler. And the drink is usually a warm 1975 Pabst found scattered around at the closed down and blown down old distributor.

Sanitation without running water isn’t all that bad. The tides take most stuff away from the toilets each day. I wake up each day and all the waste is gone. Replacing the toilet and the rest of the bathroom every day sucks, but you get used to it. It’s like normal people having to put the TP on the dispenser. Just as painful. It does suck getting into the constant fight with the significant other about how to hang the new bathtub each day. Over or under? It never ends.

The zip lock bags containing everything you own are cool once you get the hang of them. I can now open my wallet and show my ID and Social Security card without unlocking the bag. You learn to plan a sneeze. You don’t just sneeze. You open the zip lock first, get the tissue, close it till you see blue, then you sneeze. It’s good to anchor most zip locks near the location you expect to find them. They tend to float around as the surges come in.

New homes don’t have outlets. The have battery storage areas. When the flashlight flickers, I look for the nearest wall. The rule is “D” size on the room’s north wall, “C” on the west wall, “AA” to the south and “AAA” to the east. 9-volt? You are screwed. Don’t bring that crap around here! The big 12v hang where light fixtures used to be.

Beaches are still big and fun here. We just have to call the local surf shop each day to see where the waves are breaking to determine where the beach is. A manual cutting tool is a must if you want to go to the beach. Yesterday, the beach was a heavily forested inland location. To lay out and get some sun, you have to cut down a few dozen trees on the high ground or move debris and wait for the daily eye to pass over. Beach towels are out as they can’t be tackled to the ground and have carried some small kids to Haiti like a magic carpet. Most people bring hinged concrete slabs on dollies to lie on. Each is airbrushed with tropical motifs. Frisbees have been banned here though. After the decapitation epidemic something had to be done.

Spark plugs are a woman’s best friend. The ever-changing guy next door (was next door last week but now his house is in South Alabama…and he hasn’t rented a truck to move) had his generator spark plug foul. He’d already given his wife’s rings for the last spark plug. Not able to acquire a new one on the hurricane market, his wife left him and swam back here. She knows I have a few extra stashed. It’s a good thing. Depending on the next storm, I’ll probably trade her for 10 gallons of Sunoco gas next week.

... Sorry to say secretly hoping foranother Katrina, probably good for rating

You live in Florida for 48 years then tell me he overreacted.

Florida was hit pretty bad last year, multiple times. People who don't live there may not realize that a lot of the damage sustained then has not been taken care of yet, and that there are still wide swaths of mobile homes where people who lost their residences last year still live. The risk for danger was not one I would have been willing to take, and I think Jeb did the right thing taking great precautions to keep people safe. I will not criticize Jeb for not having the weather prognosticating powers of Punxatawney Phil.

History will remember him as a governor whose tenure was disastrous for FL, but who got two things right: evacuating vulnerable people under the threat of tropical storms, and making it lawful for people to bring their dogs to outdoor restaurants. In fact, if he runs for the platform as President on the single issue of expanding the law for dogs eating in outdoor restaurants nationally, he will get my vote. (Ha ha)

done right, as opposed to his myriad misdeed. Welcome to DU.

I hate to have to defend Jeb Bush but these storms are unpredictable and if he hadn't ordered the evacuation and the storm turned bad the consequences would be tragic.

I agree that any tropical storm needs to be taken seriously, and warnings given. But if you go to that extent too many times, people will stop listening. And when the big one does come, some people may not take it seriously. There is a big difference between a cat 5 hurricane and a tropical storm or minimal hurrican bearing down on the coast.