STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 16 June

Enjoy Your Fundamental Analysis – Don’t Forget
Anything Can Happen

Anything can happen in the markets, and that anything can move against you in two ways. Either you can be wrong in your fundamental analysis, or your analysis can be right and the market can disagree with your views long and hard enough to flush you out of your positions. If you are so set in your views that they will not change, then your position sizes must be in amounts where your hands will remain strong. Tonight’s exercise focuses on considering from a long term perspective, what that “anything” that can happen may be.

Below are long term charts of selected indices, ETF’s, and stocks. Each chart is projected forward about 2 years with a scenario of the “anything” that can happen. The first chart is a plot of the Nasdaq 100 ETF showing our present position as somewhere in the middle of a three wave correction with a proposed terminal drop ending in October of this year. In October starts a 5 wave apparent resumption of the “bull market.” In early 2007 the Nasdaq 100 forms an expanding triangular correction followed by a rally in the summer spurred on by those anticipating the next October year end rally. Starting New Year's 2008, everyone then expects a market crash, but these folks are fooled when the market rallies in the first quarter of 2008. By that time, it will appear as if the bull market is going to resume – but it won’t. The market turns around and drops fast and the Nasdaq 100 ETF sits at 32 in the early summer of 2008. Anything can happen.

-cut past charts-

Today’s Market

Anything can and did happen today. The market rallied strongly while the stocks and sectors that took the biggest drops in the recent correction made the most decisive gains today. Precious metals, oil, homebuilders, and transportation stocks were up strongly. But again, with stocks and sectors that normally head in opposite directions going in the same direction, it leads one to suspect that something out of the usual is going on. It appears as if there is liquidity coming and going from the market and all asset classes are following the trail of liquidity. The positive action that occurred over the last few days makes one think that it is time to keep the technical oscillating tools handy, while keeping the trend following tools in the shed for a few more weeks. The tendency has been for rallies to be sharp and it is for this reason that fund managers want to pile in on the long side at the first sign of a rally. With today’s volume strong, there will be ample opportunity to pile in tomorrow. We’ll see how that trend works out.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

man I love charts and those were interesting to say the least.

of running this country.

8:30 AM Current Account Q1
Briefing Forecast $220.0B
Market Expects $223.0B
Prior -$224.9B

9:50 AM Mich Sentiment-Prel. Jun
Briefing Forecast 80.0
Market Expects 79.0
Prior 79.1

8:30 AM ET 6/16/06 U.S. Q1 U.S. PURCHASS OF FOREIGN ASSETS $333.9 BLN

8:30 AM ET 6/16/06 U.S. Q1 FOREIGN PURCHASES OF U.S. ASSETS $491.6 BLN

8:30 AM ET 6/16/06 U.S. Q1 CURRENT ACCOUNT LESS THAN $221.1 BILLION FORECAST

8:30 AM ET 6/16/06 U.S. Q1 CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT 6.4% OF GDP VS. 7.0%

8:30 AM ET 6/16/06 U.S. Q1 CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT $208.7 BLN VS. $223.1 BLN

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B4D44A224%2D743A%2D4A38%2DBD75%2DD340F849F86F%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. balance of payments deficit narrowed slightly in the first quarter to $208.7 billion from $223.1 billion in the fourth quarter, the Commerce Department reported Friday. The current account deficit totaled 6.4% of gross domestic product, down from 7% in the fourth quarter. The decrease was largely due to a decrease in transfer payments and net imports of goods. Economists had expected the current account to shrink to about $221 billion, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch. Capital inflows totaled $157.6 billion after $242.7 billion in the fourth quarter.

9:48 AM ET 6/16/06 JUNE UMICH CONSUMER SENTIMENT 82.4 VS. 79.1: REPORTS

Score goes to the propagandists

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-06-16T135221Z_01_N16MICHSTO_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-CONSUMERS-SENTIMENT-URGENT.XML

excerpt:

The University of Michigan's preliminary early June index of consumer sentiment read 82.4, up from May's final reading of 79.1, said sources who saw the subscription-only report.

The median forecast of 63 Wall Street economists polled by Reuters was for a 79.0 reading.

The survey's index of current conditions rose to 103.1 in June from 96.1 in May, while consumer expectations climbed to 69.2 in June from 68.2 in May.

Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of all U.S. economic activity, but in recent years confidence measures have been a weak guide to actual spending plans.

...more at link...

Normally the markets ignore a decline - but, I'll wager they'll bounce up on this one :eyes:

SINGAPORE - Crude oil prices climbed above $70 a barrel Friday on mixed signals from
Iran over a package of incentives offered by the West for it to give up uranium enrichment.

Some traders are concerned that Iran, the world's fourth-largest oil producer, might reduce its oil exports as a result of its showdown with the West over its nuclear program.

-cut-

On Thursday, OPEC's secretary general, Sheik Ahmed al-Fahd al-Sabah of Kuwait said the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries won't cut its current output ceiling until oil prices stabilize. But analysts fear that this move might not be sufficient to curb price pressures.

more

10:01 AM ET 6/16/06 CRUDE FUTURES DOWN 10C AT $69.40 A BARREL

Europe's bourses extended their rebound after US and Asian stocks climbed strongly overnight. The gains were helped by Ben Bernanke, US Federal Reserve chairman, who has been warning about inflation pressures recently, said it probably was not as much of a worry as some had feared.

-cut-

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 closed up 2.8 per cent at 14,879.34, its first weekly gain in six weeks, led by big jumps in the real estate and banking sectors. See more on Japan's Friday

more

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rallied on Thursday, as investors were relieved after
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke steered clear of fueling inflation concerns, and strong earnings from investment bank Bear Stearns Cos. (NYSE:BSC - news) boosted financial shares.

Investors extended a late-day rally from Wednesday and snapped up downtrodden shares after weeks of rout. A rise in tech shares, including Qualcomm Inc. (Nasdaq:QCOM - news), Apple Computer Inc. (Nasdaq:AAPL - news) and Yahoo Inc. (Nasdaq:YHOO - news) helped push the Nasdaq Composite Index to its biggest one-day gain in more than two years.

more

Poole:
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?column=Indications&siteid=mktw&dist=
"rising gasoline and oil prices may be adding to inflation pressures in a way not detected by the current data."

:puke:

I wish I could make $200,000 a year for stating the COMPLETELY FUCKING OBVIOUS!

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-06-16T150449Z_01_WAT005857_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-FED-KOHN-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, June 16 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Board Governor Donald Kohn said on Friday cutting U.S. inflation "could be difficult and costly" if it were to rise, adding it would be dangerous if global markets came to question the U.S. central bank's devotion to price stability.

<snip>

"A smaller response of inflation to domestic demand also implies that reducing inflation once it rose could be difficult and costly," Kohn said.

Kohn also said integrated global financial markets could be "less forgiving" of any policy error.

"If financial market participants thought that the (Fed policy-setting panel) was not dedicated to maintaining long-run price stability -- a notion that I can assure you is not correct -- they would be less willing to hold dollar-denominated assets, and the resulting decline in the dollar would tend to add to inflationary pressures," he said.

Verbal intervention - yesterday Chopper Ben had to "save" the markets, today the rest of the crew-that-couldn't-shoot-straight has to "save" the dollar.

Six of the largest U.S. airlines Thursday raised some one-way fares by $50, renewing their effort to offset record spending on jet fuel and return the industry to profitability.

AMR Corp.'s American Airlines, UAL Corp.'s United Airlines, Delta Air Lines Inc., Continental Airlines Inc., Northwest Airlines Corp. and US Airways Group Inc. increased prices for U.S. first-class and last-minute coach tickets.

Southwest Airlines Co. was the only one among the seven largest U.S. carriers that didn't go along.

The airlines are raising fares at the fastest pace since 2001 to offset fuel prices that have more than doubled. They're also dropping unprofitable routes and shrinking fleets to try to end more than $40 billion in losses in the last five years.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-fares16jun16,1,5383082.story?coll=la-headlines-business

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060616/ap_on_bi_ge/delta_pilots;_ylt=AqImTFLmwaAvdbthjbTFK82s0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTA3bGI2aDNqBHNlYwM3NDk-

ATLANTA - Delta Air Lines Inc. will file a request Monday to terminate its pilots' pension plan, the company's chief executive said Friday. But the nation's third-largest carrier still holds out hope pension reform will save other employees' retirement plans.

In a letter to U.S. Sen. Johnny Isakson, that also was sent to other members of Congress, Delta CEO Gerald Grinstein said Delta will ask that the pilots' pension be terminated effective Sept. 2. UAL Corp.'s United Airlines, the nation's No. 2 carrier, did the same thing when it was in bankruptcy protection.

snip...

Delta has lost more than $14 billion in the last five years. It filed for bankruptcy last September and since then it has cut more jobs, rejected aircraft leases and reaped cost savings through pay cuts for employees.

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 85.78 Change -0.03 (-0.03%)

Dollar Bears Fearful of Betting Against the Fed Despite Weak TIC Report

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_fundamentals/Dollar_Bears_Fearful_of_Betting_1150405444242.html

US Dollar
Whenever we look at economic data, we use the information to extrapolate what the Federal Reserve will do with interest rates. However in recent weeks, the extrapolation has become far more difficult since US data has been telling us one thing while the Federal Reserve has been telling us another. So far, there have been signs that the US economy is weakening and that the odds are building against the dollar while at the same time the Federal Reserve has been telling us that inflation has become so problematic that they have to keep on raising interest rates. Today’s batch of economic data makes figuring out whom to believe even more difficult. Jobless claims and the Empire State manufacturing survey both came out strongly, but the report on net foreign purchases of US securities (also known as the TIC report), industrial production and Philly Fed surveys all showed weakness. Since the TIC report was the day’s most important release, the market tried to send the dollar lower, but traders were fearful of shorting the dollar too significantly in an environment where the Fed fund probability for a June rate hike is at 100 percent. The Treasury International capital report was extremely disappointing today, coming out at $46.7 billion compared to a forecast of $60 billion. The report indicated that foreign investors did not buy enough US dollar denominated investments to plug the April trade deficit of $63.4 billion. The weakness of the dollar and central bank reserve diversification into Euros has played a big role in the weaker demand. The biggest selling was from the UK which is frequently thought to include investments from the Middle East. For now, this may be written off as a one off phenomenon, but if weak demand persists for another month, it will become a far more pressing concern. The market currently has its focus centered on what the Fed will do at the end of the month, but once that passes and we see the next TIC report the following month, then another weak number will be met by a larger reaction in the US dollar. Aside from the TIC report, the other bad news today was the 0.1 percent drop in industrial production as well as the decline in the Philly Fed survey from 14.4 to 13.1. Although the Philly Fed was stronger than the market’s forecast, after seeing the jump from 12.9 to 29.0 in the Empire State manufacturing survey, traders were looking for a stronger number to validate the strength in the more volatile NY index. Overall, the performance in the manufacturing sector has been lackluster at best with the Philly Fed survey remaining at the low double digit level for the fifth consecutive month. The big upside surprise was the jobless claims report which dipped below 300k to 295k. This is certainly an encouraging number and is a good sign for the labor market. However, with only 75k jobs created last month, this is only a recovery from the worst rather than a confirmation of a continued boom.

...more...

U of M Confidence And Current Account Finish Dollar Run

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/calendar/key_events/Tomorrow_s_Economic_Releases__U_of_1150402311793.html

US Current Account Balance (1Q) (12:45 GMT; 08:45 EST)

Consensus: -$222.0B
Previous: -$224.9B

Outlook: While no where near par, the current account deficit is likely to moderate to $220.0 billion from the fourth quarter’s record $224.9 billion shortfall. Additionally, as a percentage of nominal GDP, the gap is expected to contract to 6.8% of GDP from the previous three-month’s record 7.1% of GDP. In 2005, huge current account deficits accompanied strength in the dollar, as foreigners sought to aggressively accumulate US assets. However with some apparent shakiness in the dollar in 2006 and booming competitor economies, there has been speculation that the current account imbalances may be finally ready to correct. Any surprises to the up or down side on the balance will likely create additional volatility for the dollar as it will be the final say on US trade conditions following the disappointing goods and investment flow balances released earlier.

Previous: The US current account deficit widened a hefty 21.3% to a record $224.9 billion in the fourth quarter; while at the same time measuring up to 7.1% of the nation's gross domestic product, also a record. For all of 2005, the current account deficit grew to a record $804.9 billion, totaling a staggering 6.4% of GDP--the ninth annual record in the past ten years. The current account deficit is the broadest measure of the nation's economic balance sheet with the rest of the world, encompassing both trade and capital flows. Essentially, it measures the nation's debt with the rest of the world, which must be financed by loans from abroad or asset sales to foreigners. Thus far, the US has been able to finance its current account gap on very favorable terms, allowing interest rates to remain low and in the process fueling consumption and investments in housing as well as financial assets. Specifically, the increase in the fourth quarters current account was largely a result of a rebound in net unilateral current transfers, which had dropped in the third quarter as foreign insurance companies made payments arising from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.


University of Michigan Confidence Survey (JUN P) (13:45 GMT; 09:45 EST)

Consensus: 79.0
Previous: 79.1

Outlook: June’s advanced reading of the consumer confidence survey conducted by the University of Michigan is expected to slip even lower than May’s figure of 79.1. As measures of inflation continue to rise, stock prices drop, and the housing market cools leading optimism to subsequently decline. Recently, American consumers have seen their wallets pinched due to persistently high oil prices, which have translated into $3 per gallon gasoline. While at first glance US retail sales for the month of May improved by 0.1%, stripping away the strong surge in gas receipts revealed an actual 0.1% drop. As gasoline in unequivocally considered a necessity rather than a desirable good, expectations for a drop in confidence is well founded.

Previous: The University of Michigan’s consumer confidence measure fell to 79.1 in May, the lowest in seven months, from an April reading of 87.4. The current conditions index, a measurement of Americans' perceptions of their financial situation and whether it's a good time to buy more expensive items like cars, fell by the most since the survey began in 1978. The survey showed that expectations for inflation rose to the highest level since the surge in energy prices following last year's Gulf Coast hurricanes. The drop in confidence reinforced forecasts that consumers will curb the spending that makes up about 70% of the economy.

...more...

from the Grasso article in my Post #19 -

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=2341278&mesg_id=2341417

there was this paragraph:

Specialists are responsible for creating orderly markets, buying when investors are selling and selling when most are buying. They are prohibited from manipulating a share price — for example, buying at higher prices than are displayed.

I wonder if somehow all of this is not innertwined :eyes:

I think alot of bad stuff was going on with the Nasdaq under Grasso in the heydey of the Dot Coms.

They still talk of Grasso with reverence on CNBC and we know what CNBC is all about. :eyes:

he is going to lose is ass in the housing market. :rofl:

check your pm

:hi:

keep buying stocks and boosting prices.

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-06-16T142656Z_01_N16216063_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FEDFUNDS-UPDATE-1.XML

CHATHAM, Mass., June 16 (Reuters) - U.S. short-term rate futures on Friday changed little after an increase in consumer sentiment in early June which fit with the market's bias toward more Federal Reserve tightening of monetary policy.

The University of Michigan's closely-watched consumer sentiment index rose to 82.4 from May's final 79.1, after it had been forecast to stay near flat at 79.0.

Heavy losses in rate futures earlier in the week have fully factored a Fed rate hike in June, to 5.25 percent <FFN6>, and pushed prospects for another increase in August <FFQ6> to about 70 percent.

The stronger than expected Michigan headline sentiment reading gave no reason for a major change to that outlook.

"Given the strong data we've seen, I don't think this has a whole lot of bearing on what the Fed does," said Jay Bryson, global economist at Wachovia Securities in Charlotte, North Carolina.

...more...

Short-term memory goes first. Were not these the same people that signed on to the "no more rate hikes after March" crowd?

is this same "think tank" that said there would be no more rate hikes after March?

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-06-16T172339Z_01_N16190560_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-FED-THINKTANK.XML

NEW YORK, June 16 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve will likely end its two-year credit tightening cycle at the end of June when it raises interest rates to 5.25 percent, an influential New York-based think tank said on Friday.

Fed policy-makers, like their counterparts at the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank, are very sensitive about increasing rates while economic growth is slowing, but recent inflation data has forced them to tighten a little more than they had planned, the think tank said in a presentation to analysts.

"The Fed will hike rates at the June meeting up to 5.25 percent, and they will keep the 'vigilant' language open even while they are softening the economic outlook," said a member of the firm, which meets regularly with Fed officials.

"That means they will not rule out the possibility of an August rate hike even though they expect data to come in weaker," he said on a background briefing.

...more...

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/15/business/15aig.html?ex=1308024000&en=31c8709f85340a62&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

(free registration or try www.bugmenot.com)

Richard A. Grasso, the former chief executive of the New York Stock Exchange, faced questions from federal regulators about whether he prodded traders to support the American International Group's share price while he was head of the exchange and its regulatory unit, government documents released yesterday disclosed.

During Mr. Grasso's deposition, given before the Securities and Exchange Commission in June 2005, he repeatedly invoked his Fifth Amendment right against self-incrimination, in spite of warnings from S.E.C. lawyers that doing so could be used against him in a civil case.

<snip>

S.E.C. lawyers asked Mr. Grasso in the 2005 deposition whether he had tried to placate powerful executives like Maurice R. Greenberg, the chairman and chief executive of A.I.G., by encouraging the A.I.G. specialists — those assigned to manage floor trading in the stock — and their superiors to prop up the price of the stock, going as far as to set up a $17 million fund to buy shares.

While he invoked the Fifth Amendment in front of S.E.C. lawyers in 2005 in response to various questions, in 2006 he answered many of the same questions in a deposition related to Mr. Spitzer's lawsuit. In the deposition, he said he did not encourage the traders to prop up A.I.G. shares.

Mr. Spitzer is expected to make the case that it was important for Mr. Grasso to appease Mr. Greenberg because he was a member of the compensation committee at the exchange from 1996 until 2002. In 2001, Mr. Grasso received $25.6 million in salary, bonus and deferred compensation.

...more...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/06/15/AR2006061502062_pf.html


By Steven Mufson
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, June 16, 2006; D01



The whole world is talking about energy shortages, but for the moment, the U.S. natural gas business is looking at a potential glut. Thanks in part to a warm winter, inventories of natural gas have built up to levels far greater than normal for this time of year. And terminals built to handle imports of liquefied natural gas from other countries are operating at about half of their capacity.

It is, unfortunately for consumers, a situation that may not last. Energy traders are still pricing futures contracts at high levels, and natural gas producers are planning for big increases in U.S. demand over the coming years. Yesterday, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approved proposals to build three new terminals and expand two others that together would triple the nation's capacity to import liquefied natural gas (LNG). One of those projects is an expansion of the LNG terminal at Cove Point in Calvert County, Md.

But for now, as anxiety grips oil markets, natural gas markets have calmed down in the past five months. At the end of last week, natural gas in storage amounted to 2.4 trillion cubic feet, up 23 percent from a year earlier and 38 percent higher than the five-year average, according to the Energy Information Administration. As a result, natural gas prices, which spiked as high as $15 a thousand cubic feet last winter, finished yesterday at $6.32 at Henry Hub, La., an industry benchmark.

The only things that can rescue natural gas producers from having to slash prices later this year: another big hurricane or a hot summer. "What people are counting on is that there will be a hurricane that will disrupt production in the Gulf of Mexico the way Katrina and Rita did and that all that gas in storage is needed to make things work," said Adam Sieminski, chief energy economist of Deutsche Bank.

MORE DETAIL FOLLOWS....

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B6D03A274%2D5E5E%2D47F0%2DAED5%2D92A7663E58AD%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- ConAgra Foods Inc. (CAG : 22.09, +0.08, +0.4% ) said Friday that Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President Frank Sklarsky plans to leave the company. The Omaha, Neb., company said it has begun a search for a new financial chief, and said Sklarsky will remain for a transition period.

:think:

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B0B8C8166%2D01EA%2D4B27%2D9F15%2D4D1919F603A5%7D&symbol=

excerpt:

The Blue Fund, run by Blue Investment Management of New York, has a different take on mixing politics and investing. The rhetoric -- and we'll have to rely on the documents because manager Daniel Adamson, on advice of counsel, is not discussing the fund while it's in registration -- is that the fund is putting its capital "to work for a progressive America."

It defines progressive as including values such as "environmental sustainability, responsible corporate governance, active community participation, avoidance of products that cause great social harm, including tobacco and firearms, fair treatment of employees, diversity in leadership and in the workplace, and respect for human rights at home and abroad."

The fund is picking stocks that are part of management's proprietary "Blue Index." Because it's proprietary and management's not talking, there's no way to know precisely what is in the index or how it works or what it has returned over time. But the index includes about 75 of the stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500, according to the prospectus; the investment pool includes some well-known names like Walt Disney, eBay and Apple Computer. (The fund also excludes a lot of well-known names; think Halliburton.)

Making the index requires that a company "give blue" and "act blue." The first part screens firms to see if the company and its top three executives have given the majority of their contributions to Democratic candidates and political action committees over the last four election cycles.

<snip>

But there is no research supporting the idea that investing in these stocks actually delivers superior investment returns. In fact, there's no evidence that the average consumer can get about the fund suggesting that the Blue index delivers anything more or less than ordinary large-cap returns. If the fund happens to deliver great performance, it would take years of consistent gains to believe it's anything but dumb luck.

...more...

I don't care if the funds turn a profit because of dumb luck. At least I'll be able to sleep at night and not worry about funding some wacko right-wing, lying thief.

1:55 PM ET 6/16/06 CORRECT: GOLD FUTURES CLOSE UP $11.40 AT $581.70 AN OUNCE

http://www.kitco.com/ind/laird/jun152006.html


The BIG Gold Picture
By Chris Laird

June 15, 2006

www.prudentsquirrel.com



WE have certainly had some big weeks for precious metals. As of Tuesday this week, gold is down $40 in one day, to 560. Silver down well over a dollar, to under $10.

What gives?

Did gold correct under a normal retracement? Did gold react to some normal Fibonacci retracement, did the speculators just cash in again?

No. The answer to Gold’s price action and the action in the precious metals lie in what I call the Big Gold picture. The Big Gold Picture is a macro economic and political view on the economic news and events. Gold and precious metals react instantaneously to financial economic and political news.

snip...

About a month ago, when gold was over 700$, I stated that gold would correct as much as 100$ within two weeks because the gold market was up 250$ in a very short time. That proved true because the following week gold dropped over 40$ the very next Monday.
Now that call was not macroeconomic, it was just based on the bubblish behavior of gold up to that time and I believed a correction was called for.

Now, Two weeks after that, I put into the newsletter that gold was going to go to 550$ if the Fed was going to be aggressive in hiking US interest rates. We are looking at that happening now, and the markets, seeing US inflation at 3 plus percent, and that the Fed was talking about stopping US inflation no matter what, gold rapidly dropped just about 100 bucks in a couple of days. As of this writing, gold is now about 560$.

more at link...and I guess we will know in a couple weeks, but I think a half point hike is out of the question. According to Chris the Fed may care more about the T Bill, but our elected officials certainly care more about being re elected.

Dow 10,996.70 -18.49 (-0.17%)
Nasdaq 2,137.52 -6.64 (-0.31%)
S&P 500 1,252.86 -3.30 (-0.26%)
10-Yr Bond 5.082 -0.16 (-0.31%)

NYSE Volume 541,356,000
Nasdaq Volume 589,420,000

09:40 am : As futures trading presaged, the open has pretty much gone off as expected with equities consolidating recent gains. With the Dow, SnP 500 and Nasdaq surging 2.8%, 2.7% and 3.5%, respectively, over the last two days, some concerns that stocks may have gone up too far too fast are warranting a bit of a breather at the onset. Be that as it may, quadruple-witching options expiration today is expected to result in more choppiness on even bigger volume before a very volatile trading week comes to a close. DJ30 -11.61 NASDAQ -5.66 SP500 -2.78 NASDAQ Vol 572 mln NYSE Vol 414 mln

I guess we are gonna find out;)

thanks UIA

Dow 11,009.90 -5.29 (-0.05%)
Nasdaq 2,138.10 -6.06 (-0.28%)
S&P 500 1,253.10 -3.06 (-0.24%)
10-Yr Bond 5.088 -0.10 (-0.20%)

NYSE Volume 856,564,000
Nasdaq Volume 917,899,000

10:00 am : Equities briefly bounce off session lows as investors digest an improvement in market sentiment. Within the last few minutes, the University of Michigan's preliminary read on Consumer Sentiment checked in with a stronger than expected reading of 84.2 (consensus 79.0). However, since there isn't as strong a correlation between sentiment and consumer spending as some might think, the incentive to lock in some profits, as evidenced by yesterday's biggest winners (e.g. Energy, Materials and Financials) turning in the worst performances this morning, continues to dictate early action. DJ30 +6.48 NASDAQ -1.52 SP500 -1.23 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1551/884/886 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1527/1094/550 mln

Dow 11,003.26 -11.93 (-0.11%)
Nasdaq 2,129.69 -14.46 (-0.67%)
S&P 500 1,251.10 -5.06 (-0.40%)
10-Yr Bond 5.090 -0.08 (-0.16%)

NYSE Volume 1,037,221,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,078,470,000

Looks like a game of "hot potato" :eyes:

blather added on edit:

10:30 am : Choppy trading persists as stocks retrace morning lows, with the Nasdaq outpacing the blue chip averages to the downside. Albeit still in negative territory for the year despite halving its year-to-date decline yesterday, the Composite is getting hit the hardest among the majors as concerns that the Fed may go too far continues to question the Tech sector's growth prospects. DJ30 -10.65 NASDAQ -13.64 SOX -1.4% SP500 -4.49 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1667/936/1.04 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1818/1049/682 mln

just don't be the guy holding the potato at the end of the day:evilgrin:

Particularly on a Friday..."take the money and sun" weekend plans, dontcha know...

It's good to see you here at the SMW! :hi:

Miss you lots!

:hug:

Need to get better direction, right now the Energy sector is the only thing with movement but that is even range bound , good thing I have a couple of Naked Puts expiring today :) - these plays otta be illegal:evilgrin:

:toast:

on edit: SLB is in the same sector and has had the same movement but with better results to the down side, and it qualifies as a mover - 5 million shares already not the 11 million that Exxon has moved but almost a $1.60 movement so far today, compared to Exx's .86 cents

I could have made a killing on that buying 20 contracts of Puts and staying in for a few minutes and then getting out but that all happened in the first bit of trading - I like to at least wait for direction

am able to use enough leverage to keep me happy. I am planning to start doing 4x market trading soon. Currently, I use E*Trade and I get fairly good execution and little slippage with these guys.

issues worth keeping an eye on - what is 4x market trading? is that similar to ETF's?

I use Options Xpress but may switch to Interactive Brokers or Streetsmart both have a direct main feed into the market for faster transactions and execution. IB has .01 cent/share trading with a minimum of 100 shares/trade. So that is another attractive thing about IB.

market open 24 hours a day. E*Trade has their product Power E*Trade which provides direct execution and Level II access. I also subscribe to eSignal and run a bunch of computational programs off that feed. it all works pretty well. For, the forex market, I haven't settled on a good broker yet. Anybody have one that would reccomend?

I need to get educated on, 24 hrs/day at almost $$1.5 Trillion/day, now that is some movement :)

Thank you, and no on the Broker question

and less whipsawing. Suits itself well to TA.

j/k!


:D

beer or wine:beer:

:beer:

*from Mark Gilbert's Bloomberg review of Peter Hartcher's new book about Greenspan, Bubble Man:

http://jameswolcott.com/

"In the first half of the book, he shows how Greenspan neutered the Fed's monetary-policy meetings, holding pre-meetings to preempt dissent among the governors. By drafting the Fed statement before the meeting was held, 'Greenspan had kept the trappings of due process but gutted their substance,' the author says.

"He then plants a fertile seed of doubt about Greenspan's willingness to put politics before principles, suggesting that Fed support for President George W. Bush's deficit-swelling tax cuts in 2001 and 2003 was part of 'an understanding,' with Bush agreeing not to comment on Fed policy moves.

"Next, Hartcher cites figures showing Greenspan held an average 3.9 meetings a week with Congress members in 2004, up from 3.3 in 2003 and 1.8 in 1996. From 1996 to 2000, Greenspan had about one meeting a month at the White House; in 2001, he visited 37 times, and by 2004 he was there once a week."

http://jameswolcott.com/

within a 40 point range for the entire day, doesn't look like the bulls are gonna get the 2-3 more days of follow through that they need to confirm a new rally.

What the bloody hell happened?
I go out on an errand for just a wee while
and come back and it's bloody red again...!
Shyte:wtf:

1980s redux :eyes:

Watch for the coming bank failures and spiking foreclosures :hide:

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-06-16T175658Z_01_N16204721_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-BANKS.XML

NEW YORK, June 16 (Reuters) - U.S. banks thought longer term rates would have risen by now, allowing them to charge more for loans and boost profit margins.

They were wrong.

This week, Cleveland's National City Corp. <NCC.N>, Cincinnati's Fifth Third Bancorp Inc. <FITB.O> and New Jersey's Commerce Bancorp Inc. <CBH.N> said lending margins will fall for the second quarter.

Commerce lamented in a regulatory filing that the rate environment is "unlike that seen in many years." For the second time in nine months, it said the rate environment would cause quarterly profit to fall short of Wall Street forecasts.

Citigroup Inc. <C.N> and Bank of America Corp. <BAC.N>, the biggest banks, have complained in the past about margin pressures.

When you add it all up, investors in the other 7,500 U.S. banks have much to be concerned about.

Banks are hurting because the longer-term rates at which they lend are not rising much, even as the Federal Reserve's 16 consecutive increases in short-term rates drive up the amounts they pay on deposits and to borrow.

...more...

If today goes black, it will be probably be only for a minimal gain.

Dow 11,019.51 +4.32 (+0.04%)
Nasdaq 2,133.51 -10.64 (-0.50%)
S&P 500 1,251.57 -4.59 (-0.37%)
10-Yr Bond 5.104 +0.06 (+0.12%)

NYSE Volume 1,989,070,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,844,823,000

2:00 pm : Not much changed in the last 30 minutes as sellers remain in control of the action. Crude oil futures, though, are back at session highs at $69.60 per barrel (+$0.10) entering the final hour of trade on the NYMEX. But the commodity's modest gain is not exactly convincing investors to get back into Energy stocks. DJ30 -5.45 NASDAQ -13.95 SP500 -6.16 XOI -0.8% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1908/996/1.76 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2131/1046/1.24 bln

1:30 pm : Market improves its stance but stocks are still in negative territory and an underlying bearish bias remains intact. As reflected in the A/D line, decliners outpace advancers by a 2-to-1 margin on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq. A larger 3-to-1 ratio of down to up volume paints an even more negative tone but total volume, which was well above average early on due to quadruple witching options expiration, appears to be drying up and lending less support for today's broad-based, albeit modest, move to the downside.DJ30 -2.89 NASDAQ -13.83 SP500 -6.08 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1935/977/1.68 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2120/1026/1.18 bln

I fear that we (the liberal/progressive community) may lose one of the most important sources of information - ConsortiumNews.com

please read and if you have a couple dollars to help them meet their expenses, please consider giving

http://www.consortiumnews.com/2006/061606.html

Five Days Left

By Robert Parry
June 16, 2006

Some e-mailers and friends have asked why I didn’t attend some of the recent progressive conferences – like “Take Back America” or the “Yearly Kos Convention” – where media was on the agenda. The short answer is that I have been to progressive meetings in the past where media was discussed – and almost nothing gets done.

As the Right has built up a vertically integrated media infrastructure that stretches from newspapers, magazines and books to talk radio, cable news and well-funded Internet sites, wealthy liberals mostly have sat on their hands. Even now, as the Right expands that infrastructure horizontally down to state, district and local levels – with ominous portents for Election 2006 – well-heeled liberals remain mostly passive.

And this pattern has been going on for years.

<snip>

But we’ve had to struggle to raise even the small sums required for story costs and other operational expenses. Our current spring fund-raising drive, with the modest goal of $10,000, has raised only half that amount with only five days to go.

<snip>

In the meantime, we are trying to raise $5,000 in the next five days.

...more at link...

Thanks,

UIA

:hi:

for the heads-up, and for all you do right here everyday!

-mojavekid

can't say that I aim to please - just can't stop reading the biz section of every paper - glad to have some company whilst I do it :D

I am rolling around naked on the floor with all of the money and ponies that am getting :)

does this mean no more dead presidents or ponies, guess I better put the clothes back on :)

no Bull rally today - did the DJIA finish up or down by a point - talk about range trading

where's my pony :(

bad karaoke


1. "Cruel Summer" by BannaRamma

2. "It's going down" by some rap group

the bulls needed a follow through today and the next 2 days to get any kind of confirmation.

Good news my, Naked Puts from earlier just expired - so drinks on me, but no Ponies :)

Dow 11,014.55 -0.64 (-0.01%)
Nasdaq 2,129.95 -14.20 (-0.66%)
S&P 500 1,251.54 -4.62 (-0.37%)
10-Yr Bond 5.128 +0.30 (+0.59%)

NYSE Volume 2,773,126,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,420,201,000

With stocks fresh off an impressive two-day rally, another round of hawkish Fed speak sparked some concern that stocks may have gone up too far too fast, prompting investors to lock in some profits. The Dow, SnP 500 and Nasdaq had surged 2.8%, 2.7% and 3.5%, respectively, since Wednesday, but with no notable economic data and an earnings calendar similarly devoid of influential releases, investors' struggled to get a clear indication that corporate profit growth will hold up in the face of rising interest rates.

Hardest hit on the day was the Nasdaq, which was not that unusual since it has also turned in the best performance of late. Renewed concerns that the Fed may go too far with its tightening, as St. Louis Fed President William Poole became the latest central banker to echo Fed Chairman Bernanke's hawkish commentary, continued to question the Tech sector's growth prospects, despite Oracle (ORCL 14.19 +0.49) raising its Q4 outlook. Poole said core inflation is above his "comfort zone" and that the Fed may need to act since U.S. data may understate inflation because of rising oil prices.

Technology was also in focus following Microsoft (MSFT 22.10 +0.03) Chairman Bill Gates' decision to step back from his day-to-day duties, but the start of a new era beginning to take hold at the world's largest software maker did little to help the Technology sector, which consolidated alongside three of yesterday's other big winners -- Financials, Energy, and Materials -- in negative territory.

Even though there was a last ditch effort by the bulls to close the Dow in positive territory, which ultimately stalled, there was little conviction behind the late-day recovery as breadth clearly favored declining issues at both the NYSE and Nasdaq on heavy volume due to quadruple witching options expiration. Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 33.04 +1.16) and Intel (INTC 18.30 +0.18) were the standouts on the blue chip index, but they too could not provide enough of a lift to keep the short-covering rally intact going into the weekend. BTK -1.06% DJ30 -0.64 DJTA -0.06% DJUA +0.04% DOT -0.31% NASDAQ -14.20 NQ100 -0.65% R2K -1.14% SOX -0.89% SP400 -0.41% SP500 -4.62 XOI -0.55% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1994/1025/2.47 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2053/1194/2.0 bln

Have a great weekend :hi:

:hi:

Dow up some 300 points? Miss a day and you miss a lot. Miss 2 days and it's like a whole new world again.

Been way too busy lately, and my router up and puked earlier this week (power supply). Finally got the time to get back up and running tonight. I'm buried in e-mail, and I have too much "regular" stuff on my plate these days so no time for the Internet world....maybe sometime next week.

Thanks to all for keeping me up to date on the latest!