Afghanistan reels under bumper harvests

From: http://atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/HG11Df01.html (emphasis mine)

Afghanistan boasts two bumper crops this season, and both could be lethal to the already fledgling authority of its government. Western officials expect the largest-ever opium crop in the face of a toothless US$1 billion eradication campaign. And contrary to earlier pronouncements by military officials, the Taliban are gaining steam in the volatile southern provinces, where fighting has raged at levels not seen since the US-led invasion that toppled the al-Qaeda-allied Islamic fundamentalist movement five years ago.

<snip>

As the war in Iraq usurps the brunt of US military might, the insurgent and narco threats in Afghanistan have arisen at the flank. After diminished harvests under the Taliban, the country now produces about 90% of the world's opium, making it the number one global heroin producer and trafficker. Recent estimates indicate that the poppy crop in Helmand province, a militant stronghold, will more than double from last year, despite the presence of 3,300 British troops.

This comeback is trumped by that of the Taliban, which is waging a fierce campaign to destabilize the south as North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) forces complete a takeover of peacekeeping responsibilities there from the US by the end of July. Since mid-May, more than 700 people have been killed in sporadic clashes. Said Jawad, Afghanistan's ambassador to the United States, estimates there are 20-25 heavily armed militias operating in five southern provinces for a total of 3,000-5,000 men spoiling to test the resolve of Western security forces - hardly a "spent force" as some officials have described.

<snip>

According to his report, the Taliban operated in small units three years ago; last year, they grew to company-sized units of 100-plus men; and for this year's summer fighting season they are maneuvering in 400-strong battalion-sized units. When fighting broke out May 18 in Helmand, 300-400 militants bearing assault rifles and machine guns reportedly attacked a police and government headquarters, killing 16 officers, an American civilian and a Canadian soldier. "They appear to have received excellent tactical, camouflage and marksmanship training," McCaffrey noted. The militants have become "very aggressive and smart in their tactics".

There's much more worth reading at the link. And although former Drug Czar McCaffrey is well known for spout monumental amounts of BS, in this case he seems to be the voice of reason. Go figure.

Sorry, if they want me as a customer, send out some of that Afghani Freedom Hash like the CIA used to smuggle out in the 80s!

:evilgrin:

Naked men flaying great ganja with cane reeds in Temple domes.

They would scrape the hash off of the walls.

We were getting the shit they scraped off their bodies. Sweat and everything. The oil from that stuff was the most incredible stuff I have ever smoked.

Now, I am old - and just waiting for the Humboldt Fall Harvest.

Ahh - life in Marin...

...send me some of that Humboldt Green! :evilgrin:

turquoise.

One * was all it took.

One.

I will keep you posted.

I thought you had me on 'ignore'.

Guess it's all relative.

I like reading what you post.

you and I had divergent opinions on the collapse of WTC (I have been schooled and experienced in explosive demolition and you are well-educated - so, Hey!) and I have never observed any reply of yours to any of my somewhat drifting posts since then (or maybe before, because it took me a few years to figure out how to post here. I am somewhat old and slow on the uptake. I still disagree with you on the WTC thing - so there!).

Life is curious, ain't it?

I thank you for the compliment.

Tom

I think that is a practical impossibility for ANY two people.

like it did with the Soviets. I'll give it another two and a half tops.

Not to mention the possibility (insane as it seems) of additional excursions into Iran or N. Korea.

since that's where most of this will end up. :(

The addicts lips are wet in anticipation.

Tactics is not something you learn from a manual, they must have people with combat experience that are training them.

yet it is still valid and worth studying. Methinks Afghani elders have been reading it for centuries and it sure helped them during the Russian occupation

Seems like there's a part of the story we're not getting told. Who would be interested in a destabilized Afghanistan's? Iran comes readily to mind, but they're Shiite and I was under the impression that the Taliban is mainly Sunni.

Historically, the Taliban has been nurtured by the Pakistani secret service. I suspect that Musharrif's grip on his country, especially in the hinterlands, is even weaker than reported. And w/ all that drug money flowing in they can afford to bring in some experienced trainers.

is not Iran.........


it is Pakistan.....pure and simple. A rebuilt Afghanistan will lead to the provinces of Balochistan and Pashtunkhwa leaving the "federation" of Pakistan....

to ship back all the thousands of Afghani refugees they've taken in over decades of fighting. So far from being "threatened" by it, Pakistan would absolutely welcome it.

As a matter of fact, Pakistan was one of the three (or four) governments that recognized the legitimacy of the Taliban pre-9/11, which - in its perverted way - brought stability to Afghanistan.

So there goes your theory. :)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taliban

There were actually only two other generally recognized states which along w/ Pakistan also recognized the Taliban as legitimate, namely The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. Great Company there. The other "government" was the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria.

Right, not only recognized but organized, trained, funded and even provided cadres for. I don't claim to entirely understand their historical or possible current motivations for this. I can see that the Madrases system from which the Taliban were birthed offers a handy escape valve for otherwise unemployed youth. Clearly Pakistan benefits from an Afghanistan run by people largely in its thrall.

However, why and how an ally, and beneficiary of significant foreign aid of the US would be allowed to continue to do so act in way so contrary to our government's express interests defies comprehension.

China is actually an interesting thought, although they too have dangerous islamic militants of their own in the western provinces. Hard to imagine them encouraging their brethren across the border. Still it's clearly much more w/in the Chinese sphere of influence than the US. As they say, politics makes for strange bedfellows.

Stability in terms of law and order - yes, the Taliban brought that to a population which was suffering from anarchy under the warlords. They may have destroyed the buddhas and smashed un-Islamic art, but they brought political stability.

>>Right, not only recognized but organized, trained, funded and even provided cadres for.<<

I see a lot of claims that this is true, but I don't believe it. And even if it had been true under Sharif, it's not clear that post-Sharif and pre-9/11, Musharraf would have followed the same game plan as his nemesis.

>>I don't claim to entirely understand their historical or possible current motivations for this. I can see that the Madrases system from which the Taliban were birthed offers a handy escape valve for otherwise unemployed youth. Clearly Pakistan benefits from an Afghanistan run by people largely in its thrall.<<

Iran exerts a lot of influence in the region for cultural, historic and strategic reasons. So recognize that there is a competition between different forces there. Pakistan is Sunni and Iran is Shia, of course. A Sunni Afghanistan is more in Pakistan's interests. That Pakistan would seek to favor a sunni government makes perfect sense, and serves their interests. It would be incredibly naive to think that Pakistan is going to pursue US interests over their own.

>>However, why and how an ally, and beneficiary of significant foreign aid of the US would be allowed to continue to do so act in way so contrary to our government's express interests defies comprehension.<<

I don't understand. How is Pakistan acting in an incomprehensibly contrary way to US interests??? From what we hear on the news, Pakistan is helping the US in the "War on Terror". Hardly sounds like part of the Axis of Evil.

>>China is actually an interesting thought, although they too have dangerous islamic militants of their own in the western provinces. Hard to imagine them encouraging their brethren across the border. Still it's clearly much more w/in the Chinese sphere of influence than the US. As they say, politics makes for strange bedfellows.<<

China and Pakistan have been allies for a long-time, for what that's worth.

Let me note in closing that I don't think this is what you're doing, but I get tired of the irrational Pakistan-bashing that goes on here on DU. I think it's dumb, and Islamophobic in nature.

You can search on this but Putin's first visit here after 9/11 he and W had a press conference at Camp David just before he left. He said that "other forces" had contacted him and Russian officials about how they knew that the Americans would have to respond to and IN Afghanistan and how this would be a great opportunity to hit the US hard. Putin said that he turned down the offers and stopped communications with these "other forces" (some term like that).

W, of course, stood there as if he was a useless tool who had to be told how to react in even the most obvious situation. Totally oblivious to what Putin had just said.

Putin is ex-KGB never ever give him any benefit of the doubt.

Oh wait, we do. In fact they have had the chance to end heroin growin in Afghanistan for 5 years now and they have openly decided not too.

Yes there would be hell to pay in the streets here and else where for a while but with the money we are pouring into the war (the actual war) why not some more to have a positive real impact?

at least an order of magnitude greater than they currently are. You're talking about boots on the ground in every mountain valley from one end of the country to the other. Beyond that it would require actually being able to offer some alternative that had some hope of creating a commensurate amount of income for the farmer. Probably a lost cause unless one's willing to rule w/ the same kind of iron fisted terror tactics the Taliban employed during their reign.

The truly only effective way I can see is to reduce what the crop fetches by opening up free and fair trade, increasing competition and reducing the opportunity costs made possible by virtue of the black market. That would mean ending the war on some drugs.

What you say would/could work but I don't think you would need boots on the ground to that extent. It would be fairly easy to monitor the amount of heroin flowing out of the country-you would never get all of it but the huge amounts would show up so then you just go looking for it. Local information would be the key.

But I think controlling something as wide-spread as poppy-growing and heroin shipping is next to impossible, especially as long as the rewards (despite the risks) are so high (no pun intended). I mean how long, remote and unpatrolable are those borders anyway?

Sure local info would help, but what reason would people have to offer it? As long as the $$ motive is there, short of draconian punishments (which by the way the Taliban meted-out when they were in power) there's little that can be done to stop the flow.

:bounce:

I think in terms of punishment we may finally have found a good use for napalm (the crops).

Not. In fact, your advice sounds like part of a Taliban recruiting pitch.

when they line up at the recruiting station.... :nuke: napalm THEM too.

Genius I tells ya GENIUS!

and this misadministration IS the most dangerous drug in the world. :sarcasm: Besides theres no money in it. You gotta wonder who is getting rich off this stuff. I have a good idea though.

No, it couldn't be them, they're already rich as Croesus. Who then?

Does make you wonder doesn't it?

But, they did volunteer, didn't they?

Would be best if we just bought all the opium crop. Corner the market and then destroy the product. It would drive the black marketers out of business and drive the prices of opium sky high, thereby helping to keep people from getting hooked on it in the first place.

If previously reported, I missed it.

But it provides to bits to a puzzle, why the Taliban's support was low but now seems so resurgent.

The militias count as 'chaos', very strongly disliked, for obvious reasons. This would favor the Taliban, who had no Western sensibilities when it came to culture-specific solutions. Their way was effective.

But also all militia activity in the south is "Taliban", by default. Huge Taliban resurgence ... with the real possibility that Taliban has become a cover term for any anti-government/anti-NATO group, in the absence of solid evidence otherwise.

I wonder if the ambassador is right, or just making excuses.