Economy and incumbency favor Bush, Numbers are stacked against the Democra

Economic forecasters like nothing better than a clear-cut result, and that is exactly what Yale economist Ray Fair offers in his 2004 presidential vote equation – a near-certain prediction that President Bush will win re-election.

Fair is well-known in the academic community for a free Web site that offers a wealth of data about the U.S. and other economies, including a well-regarded model for predicting future growth and inflation. Among his many peripheral areas of interest, Fair has been working for 25 years to refine a model that attempts to predict the outcome of presidential elections based almost purely on economic factors.

Fair cautions that he is not a pundit, and his model does not have a perfect track record – its variables completely fail to account for Bill Clinton’s six-point popular vote victory over the first President Bush in 1992. Richard DeKaser, chief economist for National City Bank in Cleveland, figures that Fair’s model accurately identifies the winner in 18 of the past 22 presidential elections, or 82 percent.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3694389/

anyone can claim anything....but facts and statics point out that Democrats are better for the economy than republicans!!!

,...on the ground, with no "wall street" in sight. Please,...a job-killer economy is a presidential killing situation. This is just another "white tower" acting like he has a handle on reality. I DON'T THINK SO!!!

It looks like the economy is truly turn around which will surely help Bush. And even in unemployment only falls to 5.5% or so, the media will report it as the economy is heading in the right direction. With the capture of Saddam, Iraq will more than likey become more stable and less violent over the next 9 months. It looks like we will be saddled with 4 more years of Bush/Cheney/Asscrack/Rumsfeld. Its too depressing to even consider the ramifications on our future.

This is still a jobless recovery. Xmas spending is up among the rich, but not so much from the rest of us. That dishevelled transient living in the hole in the ground, without even a cell phone by which to communicate was certainly not commanding an insurgency.

Point: Still way to early to call.

Chin up!

normaly in a slack economy one would expect sales at discounters to be up. This may incicate that those who spend at discount stores are doing less well and the overall increases indicate that those at the top, who happen to rely more on stocks for income, and recived the lions share of tax cutting, are doing wonderfull.

Layoffs are still being announced.

Walmart is selling toys below wholesale.

Competition is being stifled and no one is being protected from anything any corporation chooses to do.

And Iraq is just gearing up.

TRY TO REMEMBER: Nothing George does works. And Rove is the genius behind Mission Accomplished and the Thanksgiving Turkey.

Is all this info coming from the same guys who told us how happy the Iraqis would be to see us?

and we should believe you when you say that it isn't. Deny it all you want, it will not help us...

What's important to point out is that we can't constantly credit ourselves and we gotta pay our bills down the road. High deficits aren't good. And that's precisely what we're getting.

George is trying for a Reagan: propping us up with debt.

Bought any food lately? Inflation for the first time in years.

Foreclosures have not slowed. That's somewhere in Late Breaking.

Layoffs are continuing.

And genius George and his brilliant congress refused to extend unemployment benefits for Christmas, a no-brainer and they blew it, so when we get back the Xmas sales figures, they aren't going to make anyone happy.

And if you put a dime in this market, well, you have roughly the same odds as the slots. Why? Because the FEC is NOT cracking down on fraud.

NO economy carrying this much debt can be healthy. And pretending it is is the most dangerous denial.

up for either sale or rent.

Two of them are foreclosures :scared:

if the wall street #s keeps going up and the GDP is reported as it has been lately, enough people will buy it. If a few more jobs are added we're in serious trouble. The debt is sky high but you can't win just on that issue.

This market is not the Clinton expansion. This is a volatile hysterical market and months of gains can be wiped out in one day of bad news.

Pay really close attention to what's happening with the euro. The failure to get a constitution for the European Union may be having a lot to do with our market upswing.

Corporate profits, which are being leeched off into massive executive benefits, don't mean a goddamn thing if there are no jobs. In fact, corporations which declare a profit while leaving dangerous pollution and other unsafe conditions are too costly for us to tolerate. We don't have any money to clean up after them anymore. So if they don't give us jobs, and bankrupt us repairing their careless and criminal damage, their very existence is sheer parasitism. Corporate profits declared without corporate responsibility are worthless to the well being of this nation and its people.

And the BushCo regime refuses any possibility of corporate responsibility.

So the major corporations and your own broker still have their license to steal. Ken Lay is happily ensconced in one of his many luxury homes. And you still want to invest in this market?

in the midwest, I can assure you that the economy is not showing any real life signs of improvement yet.

Our accounts receivables are still running 30-60 days behind and every month our list of 90+ accounts gets longer.

Money just is not moving between small businesses. People are not paying us in a timely fashion and we, therefore, are slow to pay our bills as well.

There was a significant improvement in late sept-early oct. But now things are worse again.

Just my 2 cents from my experience. I WANT an improvement regardless of political consequences because without an improvement, I'll be laying off half my staff after the first of the year so that I can make 1st quarter tax payments on time. No choice. This economy sucks.

27 weeks - and that fact of the non-decreasing over 27 week crowd.

Likewise the fact that we now know Saddam was a potential future threat that needed only intrusive UN inspections - and Bush has caused thousands to die and taken $200 billion from our kids, while doing the good of removing Saddam - and while doing the bad of ignoring terror in Afghanistan outside Kabul, and now has Iraq as the number one place to go for those jihad folks wanting to see the target on the backs of our kids, will either be buried by our media - or the Dem will have a good chance in 04.

So it is all about media bias against the Dems - or if you like, media whores putting ethics ahead of a paycheck.

She seemed happy about it and when I asked her if it was a bubble, she replied, "a small one." The problem is, folks, that Greenspan has given this administration every possible advantage to create an artifical erection and, frankly, investors don't care where the bang is coming from.

to remember the Clinton years.


Cher

I talked to relatives and friends at Thanksgiving and most were happy with their economic outlook and were satisfied with the direction of the economy. I did not sense any anguish or frustration. Most said the country was heading in the right direction. I just don't see this outpooring of support for change which we need to get rid of Bush.

n/t

We need to focus on congressional elections. We need to position ourselves for 2008. We need to do something about the image of this party as being untrustworthy on national security and un-patriotic. Miracles don't happen; they are made, and we ain't making one right now.

Unfortunately 2004 looks like a lost cause unless something really major happens.

and IS voting for him next time?

He LOST the popular vote. Is he more popular?

He has betrayed interest groups that voted for him last time: steelworkers, American Muslims, Nevadans, hunters who like pristine park land, smug, upscale IT professionals who have been replaced by humble employees from India, military families.....

So he's lost votes. What votes has he gained?

and idiots who see him as the only guy who'll "fight terror". Also many Jews will vote for him now. If the times are perceived to be good, people will not vote the incumbent out, period.

The Jews are barely 2 percent of this nation LIVING LARGELY IN BLUE STATES and the only ones of that 2 percent who will vote for Bush are ultra conservative Jews who voted Republican the last few times, because Hillary hugged Mrs. Arafat, btw. Not new votes.

I'm asking about anyone you know. Do YOU know anyone who did NOT vote for Bush before who WILL vote for him next time? ANYONE?

a lot of the really freaky ones stayed at hoem beaucse they didn;t think Bush was conservative one. About 80% of the vote is already decided, 40% for each party not matter what, the rest matters a lot and any % helps or hurts.

If I know or don't know anyone who will vote for Bush doesn't matter at all. It depends on where I live, who do I ask and how often. If you ask people here at DU you'll get the answers you like, you ask at another forum you get other answers. We can can all sit here and say we're looking good for 2004, but we aren't and need to work harder. I'm being realistic.

but I'm sure he picks up a few votes ala diebold & co.

and foreign investors pull their money out of Wall Street and the Dow returns to the 8,000 level this year, they'll notice the effects on their 401(k)! Just subtract 25-30% of whatever's in there now and add in either high interest rates to finance the huge federal deficit just starting to come online or add in high inflation (yes, the double-digit variety) as the debt is simply monetized (handled by just printing money, essentially).

Then let them sing their happy tune!

However, other nations have bought large chunks of our debt (another good reason to balance the budget)and they could make us extremely uncomfortable if they refuse to continue to do so.

I'm not sure which level of bond it was, but I do remember reading recently that we had a treasury issue with few or no buyers. Not well publicized.

Foreign investors consider Bush a dangerously loose cannon. Is there a dime of foreign venture capital left in this country?

The economy improving is a good thing.

The capture of Saddam is a good thing.

But, Bush has no right to claim cedite for these things, when put in the proper context.

The economy is recovering from the abysmal resesssion Bush brought down upon us. Remember that each quarter is compared to the immediately preceding quarters. Recovery is relative. Things still aren't as good as they were before Bush bankrupted our treasury. Out national deficit is still a major burden to us and our children.

Secondly, while capturing Saddam in itself is a worthy goal, the invasion of Iraq, built on lies about 45 minute nuclear threat and other WMD lies, was never justified, and Saddam's capture does not grant it legitimacy. Otherwise you must believe the ends justify the means, and that 10,000 dead Iraqi civilians were necessary to secure one pathetic, non-threatening dictator.

I don't see this day as the end of American democracy as we know it (aka, 4 more years of Bush). Nothing has changed. Bush is still the puppet king of a corrupt manipulative administration, and a bold creative Democratic candidate will bring that point of view to the American people.

The GOP to the media seems like the LA Lakers. Sure, their point man is scum, but they have the machine.

,...on the ground, with no "wall street" in sight. Please,...a job-killer economy is a presidential killing situation. This is just another "white tower" acting like he has a handle on reality. I DON'T THINK SO!!!

That somehow the economy actually does improve.

That means only terror management stands as an issue of concern.


If we have captured the evil mastermind of terrorism and WMD, then game over.

If we are subjected to a domestic terror war (which, given the amazing ineptitude of HSA will surely happen) wave in the future, * can no longer claim to be winning the war he declared.

If there are no attacks, then there will be no reason for the Ashcroft security state.

When the neurosis ends, so does the neurotic stupidity. But if Karl keeps the terrah on, Bush is a loser. Karl has jumped the shark. Take it to the bank, assuming dollars are worth anything after global oil goes over to the Euro. Bush has shown the world contempt while demanding that the world bankroll its own domination by the US.

How long can that policy stand against the world? Not long. Bush pissed his pants over steel tarrifs, wait till he sees what happens to GM foods, or to oil prices when Saudi Arabia has a civil war or invades Iran, and Iraq is burning again.

Bush has gotten everything he can out of the EU, SA, and China. In a month or three, Russia will announce that it is re-nationalizing oil and natural gas to support its economy. That will pave the way for a Sino-Russo petro deal, going around western oligarchs.

That will collapse the western oil markets, held up by American consumption, but feverish over supplying the Chinese automotive expansion. Which, itself will not happen if Kyoto has to be re-negotiated, which will likely happen due to Europe's panic over global warming.

Venezhuela will wind up an American Protectorate, the Arabian penn will be shipping oil to Europe, and the oil end game will be in full play.

Now would be a great time to be shifting to a new energy paradigm, too bad funding for alternative and renewable energy research has been in the toilet since Reagan.

good, some bad. While Saddam's capture means good new for Shrub now, it will soon wear off as the casualties continue to mount.

what if the numbers he's using for his equation are flawed? He's probably using some type of matrix and he's using government figures, like the Dept. of labor figures.

I've already seen those, and they seem to be bogus. Elaine Chao is a "good buddy" of BushMan, and she would gladly tweak the figures a little bit to keep him happy. The figures don't match in some instances. Like lagging indicators versus leading indicators.

I smell a rat. Once again, do not trust these guys. Like the Black Plague, they have spread themselves over everything that the government does.

folks that deliver them.

Large corporations are operating in relative freedom. Shouldn't this matter to people?

Unless Bush turns a tremendous amount of people around in the next year, I don't think he will win.
He has lied to the American people over and over again, causing hundreds to die in an unjustified war.