WP: Iraq at Risk of Further Strife, Intelligence Report Warns

By Karen DeYoung and Walter Pincus
Friday, February 2, 2007; A01

A long-awaited National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq, presented to President Bush by the intelligence community yesterday, outlines an increasingly perilous situation in which the United States has little control and there is a strong possibility of further deterioration, according to sources familiar with the document.

In a discussion of whether Iraq has reached a state of civil war, the 90-page classified NIE comes to no conclusion and holds out prospects of improvement. But it couches glimmers of optimism in deep uncertainty about whether the Iraqi leaders will be able to transcend sectarian interests and fight against extremists, establish effective national institutions and end rampant corruption.

The document emphasizes that although al-Qaeda activities in Iraq remain a problem, they have been surpassed by Iraqi-on-Iraqi violence as the primary source of conflict and the most immediate threat to U.S. goals. Iran, which the administration has charged with supplying and directing Iraqi extremists, is mentioned but is not a focus.

(snip)

One senior congressional aide said the NIE had been described to him as "unpleasant but very detailed." A source familiar with its language said it contained several dissents that are prominently displayed so that policymakers understand any disagreements within the intelligence community -- a significant change from the 2002 document, which listed most key dissents in small-type footnotes.

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http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/02/01/AR2007020101152.html

(NIE) Report's forecast for Iraq is grim

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/chi-0702...

Report's forecast for Iraq is grim
Sources say classified intelligence document points to further strife

By Karen DeYoung and Walter Pincus
The Washington Post
Published February 2, 2007

WASHINGTON -- A long-awaited National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq, presented to President Bush by the intelligence community Thursday, outlines an increasingly perilous situation in which the United States has little control and there is a strong possibility of further deterioration, according to sources familiar with the document.

In a discussion of whether Iraq has reached a state of civil war, the 90-page classified NIE comes to no conclusion and holds out prospects of improvement. But it couches glimmers of optimism in deep uncertainty about whether the Iraqi leaders will be able to transcend sectarian interests and fight against extremists, establish effective national institutions and end rampant corruption.

The document emphasizes that while Al Qaeda activities in Iraq remain a problem, they have been surpassed by Iraqi-on-Iraqi conflict as the main source of violence and the most immediate threat to U.S. goals. Iran, which the administration has accused of supplying and directing Iraqi extremists, is mentioned but is not a central focus.

Completion of the estimate, which projects events in Iraq over the next 18 months, comes amid intensifying debate and skepticism on Capitol Hill about the administration's war policy. In a series of contentious hearings over the past two weeks, legislators have sharply questioned Bush's new plan for the deployment of 21,500 additional U.S. troops and the administration's dependence on the Iraqi government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.

Legislators have been equally critical of the intelligence community, repeatedly recalling that most of the key judgments in the October 2002 NIE on Iraq's weapons of mass destruction were wrong. That assessment concluded that Saddam Hussein had amassed chemical and biological weapons and was "reconstituting" his nuclear weapons program. It became the foundation of the Bush administration's case--and congressional authorization--for invading Iraq.

"One of the sort of deeply held rumors around here is that the intelligence community gives an administration or a president what he wants by way of intelligence," Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) told Vice Adm. John McConnell, Bush's nominee as director of national intelligence, during his confirmation hearing Thursday.

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that would fit their pattern in Iraq, no?

mentioned it yesterday while grilling Casey, thought there are lots of sections that are classified.

who HAD NOT read it.

I cannot imagine that the top intel candidate testifying before congress would NOT READ the most important NIE concerning our most pressing intel and war issues.

What does that tell you about the admin's choice?

just like the bipartisan Iraq Study Group report. My way or the highway. :grr:

US intelligence sees elements of Iraq 'civil war'
02 Feb 2007 15:52:10 GMT
Source: Reuters
By David Morgan

WASHINGTON, Feb 2 (Reuters) - U.S. intelligence has concluded key elements of Iraq's violence could be described as "civil war," a term Bush administration officials have been reluctant to use, a new report said on Friday.

The report, reflecting the consensus views of the American espionage community, also suggested President George W. Bush's new strategy for controlling Iraqi violence must show progress within 12-18 months or risk further deterioration.

"The intelligence community judges that the term 'civil war' does not adequately capture the complexity of the conflict in Iraq," according to the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) report, parts of which were obtained by Reuters.
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N02446207.htm

i could have told them that from my vantage in seattle.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070202/ap_on_go_pr_wh/iraq_intelligence_estimate;_ylt=Aq0cG0aAwK4ScJ.ErVjg5w6s0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTA2Z2szazkxBHNlYwN0bQ--

Intel study: Iraq challenge 'daunting'

By KATHERINE SHRADER, Associated Press Writer 39 minutes ago

WASHINGTON - Iraqi leaders will be hard pressed to achieve sustained political reconciliation in the next 12 to 18 months, a collaborative report by 16 U.S. spy agencies says, raising uncertainty about the prospect for withdrawing American troops that are shoring up the government.


The latest National Intelligence Estimate, released Friday, also concludes that growing polarization, inadequate security forces and a propensity to use violence as a tool are creating a daunting situation.

The Office of the National Intelligence Director made public an unclassified summary of the document — entitled "Prospects for
Iraq's Stability: A Challenging Road Ahead."
President Bush was briefed on its conclusions on Thursday.

Intelligence analysts crafted the assessment knowing that its findings were likely to become public. In their report, they tried to avoid one of the most politically charged questions: Is Iraq in the midst of a civil war?

"Prospects for
Iraq's Stability: A Challenging Road Ahead."

"...But as Democratic leaders have been quick to note, the report, at least the portion that has been made public, does not examine other options, such as a gradual, phased withdrawal. Nor does it weigh the potential impact of sending in thousands more troops, as the president is urging.

Also prompting questions is the NIE's judgment on whether Iraq is in a state of "civil war"— a term the Bush administration has avoided using. What the report judges, in effect, is that the situation in Iraq is worse than a civil war. While the term "civil war" accurately describes some elements of the conflict in Iraq, the report says, it doesn't "adequately capture the complexity." --NPR"

<http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=7138273>

Also, Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) comments further at this link: <http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=7138276>