Stock Market Watch July 22 Thread #1

Ready for another day at the stock market? Who needs coffee we have a market ticker to keep us awake!

Good morning, Julie and all! Looks like the bulls aren't quite quiet this morning--we'll see if it's more than talk after the market opens! For now, here's a CNN story on the current hope of the spinmeisters:

Earnings closely eyed
Stronger-than-expected profit from Texas Instruments could set stage for Tuesday's open.
July 22, 2003: 7:24 AM EDT
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Stocks were on the path for a flat start Tuesday, as investors cheered better-than-expected earning from Texas Instruments and awaited quarterly reports from UPS and other heavyweights throughout the day.

At 7:15 a.m. ET, futures pointed to a flat open for the markets, which were solidly lower Monday.

Texas Instruments (TXN: Research, Estimates) took center stage ahead of the open. After the close Monday, the communications chip maker reported earnings of 7 cents a share, higher than the 6 cents expected by analysts surveyed by First Call and above the 6 cents reported a year earlier. Sales rose 8 percent, in line with lowered forecasts.

The Other Side of the Coin
Cheap money was supposed to be the cure. Falling interest rates and plenty of credit were going to resurrect the economy and the financial markets. So far the results aren’t measuring up. The economy has muddled through a recession and the stock market has recovered this year. However, things aren’t going as they should or at least as policymakers would want them to be. The economy has recovered, but there has been no recovery in the job market. One of the reasons the National Bureau of Economic Research delayed declaring the recession over is because unemployment has worsened. Since the recession was declared over in November of 2001, close to a million additional workers have lost their jobs. If the recession ended nearly two years ago, then why aren’t jobs more plentiful? If we are indeed in a recovery, then why has there been no noticeable pickup in business spending? If this is a recovery, it sure hasn’t been a normal one. Since the recession was declared over in 2001 the Federal Reserve has found it necessary to cut interest rates an additional two times, once in 2002 by half a point and once again in June of this year by a quarter of a point. We now have the lowest interest rates in half a century and still no signs of an improving job market.
<snip>
In the end the expansion of credit and lowering of interest rates have done nothing more than to have postponed the inevitable adjustment process from an over inflated credit bubble that turned into multiple asset bubbles in stocks, bonds, real estate, mortgages and consumption. Until all of these malinvestments are liquidated the economy and the job market will fail to improve in real terms. By continuing to pump credit into the system in order to keep asset bubbles from deflating, the Fed is creating the very deflation monster it now fears. We will either get the inevitable deflationary depression that accompanies all credit bubbles, or the Fed through failing to recognize the root causes of the present deflation overacts and leads us into a hyperinflationary storm. <much more>

Sorry to toss out the starter and run......

I've caught some of the futures and blather, when I first tuned in futures were higher than they are now though we know the futures mean nothing anymore.

Maeve, I was thrilled to see this in the wrap-up:

In the end the expansion of credit and lowering of interest rates have done nothing more than to have postponed the inevitable adjustment process from an over inflated credit bubble that turned into multiple asset bubbles in stocks, bonds, real estate, mortgages and consumption.

As you probably noticed, this has been my mantra lately. I knew it! I just knew it! My dad would be glad to know a few things stuck. ;-)

Today looks like a toss up. Things look grim with Liberia and WH spin doesn't seem to be working effectively to deflect the scadals regarding their pre-Iraq war lies.

I rarely catch evening newscasts but happened to tune into Brian Williams kicking off his show last night. I consider him to be a serious contender for biggest media whore so imagine my shock when the first chunk of his show was devoted to Iraq scandals. Good to see they have sensed the change in wind direction.......

Let us see what the day holds...

Julie

I'll try to keep an eye on the figures and keep them honest today! (For those who missed it yesterday, some of the reports were using the wrong baseline for S&P and made it look like it was down only ,2% instead of 1.5%)

Dow 9,111.67 +14.98 (+0.16%)
Nasdaq 1,695.36 +13.95 (+0.83%)
S&P 500 983.07 +4.27 (+0.44%)

DJIA 9,072.95 -23.74 -0.26%

Nasdaq 1,693.05 +11.64 +0.69%

S&P 500 979.95 +1.15 +0.12%

a sideways day so far......

Julie

altho it could still go either way

Dow 9,087.51 -9.18 (-0.10%)
Nasdaq 1,697.32 +15.91 (+0.95%)
S&P 500 982.13 +3.33 (+0.34%)

SHANGHAI China -11.78 -0.75%

HANG SENG Hong Kong 10,008.70 -94.20 -0.93%

NIKKEI Japan 9,527.73 +28.87 +0.30%

----------------------------------

Will have a look at Old Europe later.......

US markets open in a minute or two.....I haven't a clue what to expect through the day.

Julie

DJIA 9,051.17 -45.52 -0.50%
Nasdaq 1,689.37 +7.96 +0.47%
S&P 500 977.47 -1.33 -0.14



Interesting.

Julie

Today's reading is ADVANCEMENT changing to POTENTIAL ENERGY.

The way I read Ching's message for today is that things might not be rosy at the moment, but there is potential for great advancement. Here are a few quips, "Place your potential energy at the disposal of a worthy leader. You can work toward the fulfillment of a cause or social ideology with assured success."

The message I'm getting is that now is an opportune time for Democrats to make a lot of headway, and the Democratic candidates need some of our active support.

I don't know what this says for the markets today, but Ching always tends to address what it wants to address, not necessarily what we want it to.

A "worthy leader"! And I believe even radfringe's Magic 8-ball said "reply hazy, ask again later" now and again...

According to the blather, there doesn't seen to be much faith in potential advancement--

10:30AM: Overall market continues to be fragile...large name companies with solid reports are having trouble posting gains...Colgate (CL 56.24 -0.06) posted good numbers and got no boost, while Universal Health Services (UHS 44.77 -1.18) is down even though they beat earnings estimates by 2 cents and had a solid revenue increase...the profit-taking is less evident in the tech sector, where optimism is more firmly entrenched...
http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

"11:30AM: Talk of the capture or death of Saddam Hussein's sons given the stock market a slight boost..."

I think the phrase is "buy the rumor, sell the news"

Dow 9,119.59 +22.90 (+0.25%)
Nasdaq 1,698.89 +17.48 (+1.04%)
S&P 500 984.40 +5.60 (+0.57%)

they won't tell us till after the markets close I'll bet!

Julie the cynic

I'll give this credit for being a bit more than blather....(and I'm with you on the cynicism)

12:00PM: Stocks opened higher on a bounce from yesterday's big losses, supported by decent earnings reports...most significant was the lack of any particularly poor reports or downward guidance from any major company...however, the indices quickly started drifting lower on continued profit-taking similar to the action yesterday...there was little sign of resilience or bounce in the market...then, news hit that Saddam Hussein's two sons may have been either killed or captured...
the market's initial reaction was tentative..but then, perhaps boosted by a buy program on futures trading, the indices jumped higher and now sit near the highest levels of the day...semiconductor stocks are doing particularly well, boosted by a Lehman upgrade of the equipment makers following the Novellus (NVSL 35.86 +1.31) earnings report after the close yesterday...bank stocks, which have been market leaders, were lower mid-morning, but rebounded significantly with the upturn in the market...volume is moderate...after the close today, another flood of earnings, with Amazon.com, Amgen, Siebel, Sun, and about 50 others due to report...

Dow 9,153.62 +56.93 (+0.63%)
Nasdaq 1,704.59 +23.18 (+1.38%)
S&P 500 988.10 +9.30 (+0.95%)

Maybe they figured out that the death of Saddam's sons wouldn't really change the American economy....(edited for verb tense)

Dow 9,116.79 +20.10 (+0.22%)
Nasdaq 1,698.89 +17.48 (+1.04%)
S&P 500 984.30 +5.50 (+0.56%)

Here's to buyin' on rumours that have nothing to do with the economy! :toast:

Dow 9,146.20 +49.51 (+0.54%)
Nasdaq 1,703.83 +22.42 (+1.33%)
S&P 500 986.97 +8.17 (+0.83%)
10-Yr Bond 4.180% +0.006


Julie

"2:00PM: It has been a geopolitical day...reports of smoke from the top of the Eiffel Tower raised concerns about a terrorist strike, but it now appears to have been a small fire of no global significance...the indices dipped on the news but have now bounced back some...these fluctuations make it hard to assess the underlying sentiment, but caution and nervousness clearly persist..."
http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

Dow 9,157.05 +60.36 (+0.66%)
Nasdaq 1,707.95 +26.54 (+1.58%)
S&P 500 988.45 +9.65 (+0.99%)

Despite the furor from internatinal stories, the real tale was in the numbers and some crunched very solidly, indeed. Here's what Briefing.com had to say on Yahoo!:
"3:30PM: Dividends still matter...Wells Fargo (WFC 52.14 +0.90) has spiked higher on news that it increased its quarterly dividend from $0.30 to $0.45 per share per quarter...that 50% increase in the payout takes the dividend yield on the stock to 3.5% from 2.3%...Bank of America previously announced a dividend hike of 25% while Citigroup jacked theirs 75%...the bank stock index is up 1.1% on the day as financials continue to be important leaders in this market"

Dow 9,158.31 +61.62 (+0.68%)
Nasdaq 1,706.02 +24.61 (+1.46%)
S&P 500 988.10 +9.30 (+0.95%)

Thankfully we got those two Flotsom and Jetsom or whatever so we can just move on from all this Eye-rack stuff! On to Eye-ran and Syria! Too bad we are too stretched to do anything about Liberia. Hey, we have our priorities and right now we are doing the PNAC's list. Liberia didn't make the cut on that one, in fact I didn't see Liberia on any of the target, er I mean trouble-spot maps......

Closing out the day with a smiley face on the Street--


Dow 9,158.45 +61.76 (+0.68%)
Nasdaq 1,706.02 +24.61 (+1.46%)
S&P 500 988.11 +9.31 (+0.95%)
10-Yr Bond 4.150% -0.024


See you in the AM marketeers.....:hi:

Julie