STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday December 19.....(#1)

Will the continuing promise of jobs sometime in the future be enough for Bush to slide into the White House again?

I don't have the exact figures, but aren't valuations on stocks in many cases more exaggerated than they were during the "bubble?" How long can the stock run on the fumes of Republican gasbags?

Or is the declining dollar really the engine that is driving the stock market? Profits for the oligarchy while the average American sinks into Third World status?

During this time it is plausible that we will see more dramatic turns in the market. The psychological factor in a 10k+ Dow is that we are reaching these heights without employment numbers reflecting an overall picture of prosperity. This week, unemployment claims were down but that has not translated in companies hiring full-time workers. The temp and part-time rolls have merely increased.

I do not think that this kind of "recovery" is enough to sustain Bush (not that I am biased or anything). I would almost pity any politician that would run on a record like this. In fact, it almost looks like Bush is being set-up. Everyone except the cheerleader crowd warns us that the markets are highly overvalued. Now that we have reached these new highs, the downtrend, when/if it comes, will be politically damaging. We have several psychological barriers like 10k, 9k, 8k to break through and that will color the tone of economic debate in the 2004 race.

and I don't think such an extreme is necessary to bring down the usurper anyway.

The rich are definitely getting richer. The middle and poor are getting poorer. The average Joe is seeing those stories on TV about the increbily outrageous spending the rich are doing for Christmas (saw just a story as this on CBNC today--personal shopper picking up 12,000 coats for clients etc) and they will only be impressed for so long. Average Joe looks and sees his credit cards maxed out, his house mortgaged to the hilt and scrambling to get by, I think only so much of this will be tolerated.

The hole we have dug jobs-wise is insurmountable in less than a year's time. This is the achilles heel. (Toss in record foreclusres, bankruptcies, and debt loads and VOILA! The Road to Ruin)

As has been said before, the big money, the REAL money, is sitting still, barring some incredible event, until we know more in January.

Just my .0125

Julie

Be careful what you wish for....

One thing I think some of us forget is that politics involves using words against each other. Frankly, I think it's much more damaging to the cause to wish for a souring market and then actually have it happen. What good can come of it except getting the person you want elected? IMHO, I don't think folks take too kindly to that kid of thinking and a backlash becomes pretty likely.

I don't see it too much on this thread though. Just some food for thought.

none of the contributors to this thread wish for disaster but most of us foresee at least a brush with it.

That's the difference between us and Freepr types. They wouldn't care if it took total devastation to large swaths of the population to win an election. We would not suscribe to such depravity.

I think the poster of this crash question might have been thinking it might take a crash for us to win the WH and if so would that happen in the next year. Of course any such inquiries could be easily twisted by the "enemy" to read as "DUers eagerly await US economic disaster--more America-hating!". haha ;-)

Julie

I would not mind a correction because it is long overdue. In a correction, I refer to a deflation of values that are reflective of the actual profitability of any company relative to the amount of goods and services sold rather than profitability reflected in lowering overhead through layoffs, cooked books and bankruptcies. Too many companies this year have profited through layoffs rather than through sound fiscal management through increased demand of their products.

The Securities and Exchange Commission is culpable in many ways for the cooking of books. Through lax enforcement of laws and slap-on-the-wrist punishments for breaking them. Also an underfunded and understaffed SEC (thank to Bush) bears the responsibility for a culture of corporate criminality.

A crash is a bad thing. That ruins lives. A market correction is a reckoning in that it resets the board for responsible market management.

It was reported that profits this year were over 1 trillion dollars. Both remarkable and unsustainable.

Things seem to be going Greenspans way, for now. So much liquidity in fiat money that should be causing, yet inflation is low. (Of course that CPI index never includes the things we purchase daily to survive such as food and housing and I believe heating costs - these are rising for me, how about you).

The expected inflation is right now going where he wants it, the stock market and housing. When the corrections come, they will mostly devestate the middle class with their 401Ks, IRAs, stocks and mortgages (literally translated to "death contracts"). Lenders pushed people into adjustable/convertible mortgages for a reason, interest has no where to go but up. But, with the enormous job loss, they will see more foreclosures than opportunity.

In 2003, there is no question that the money, bond and housing markets are imbalanced. Alan Greenspan, who to puritanical eyes lost control of the money supply in 1995-96, has continued to allow M3 money supply to grow at around 10 percent per annum, although lovers of inflationary pump-priming have become seriously concerned that M3 has dropped around 1.3 percent since mid-July 2003. Needless to say, there's a benign explanation for the drop, too -- mortgage refinancing has dropped sharply from its very high peak, and money has been shifted from money market funds into stock funds, both of which tend to depress M3. We shall see.
Source:http://www.upi.com/view.cfm?StoryID=20031128-032727-6973r

The huge numbers for GDP also are unrepeatable and unsustainable.

Consumption, investment, government spending and rising net exports all contributed to last quarter's rapid rise in growth. But one must go beyond the surface and investigate what is propelling this hike.

Two strong causes of this growth spurt will not be repeated. First, income tax payments dropped by $100 billion at an annual rate. This one-time tax cut allowed after-tax income to grow 7.2 percent even while before-tax income rose only 1.5 percent. Real wage and salary income actually fell by 0.1 percent in the quarter, signifying that after all is said and done, workers are still falling behind despite faster growth.

Second, an exceptional surge in mortgage activity also spurred growth. The temporary plunge in mortgage rates in May and June led consumers to buy new homes and take cash out from refinancing in the third quarter. The subsequent slowdown in mortgage activity will leave consumers with less to spend in the current quarter and future quarters.

And most significantly, despite these gains in GDP, employment fell by 146,000 from the second to the third quarters. Continued job loss will ultimately drag down economic growth.
Source:http://www.epinet.org/content.cfm/webfeatures_viewpoints_GDP_numbers

The decision not to extend UE payments was a huge mistake on Shrubs part.

Mark Zandi, an economic forecaster who runs Economy.Com, estimates that, compared to the administration's dividend tax cuts, extending unemployment benefits would produce about 20 times greater bang for the buck in terms of a positive effect on the U.S. gross domestic product.
Source:http://www.epinet.org/content.cfm/webfeatures_viewpoints_extended_unemployment_benefits

Sorry this is so long. I was a researcher by trade and it has spilled over into my passion of trying to figure out what the heck is going on.:)

54anickel, for a short time on this thread (only a few weeks, IIRC) you've contributed some mighty fine reading.

Good to see you here everyday in our little coffee-klatch.

"Mark Zandi, an economic forecaster who runs Economy.Com, estimates that, compared to the administration's dividend tax cuts, extending unemployment benefits would produce about 20 times greater bang for the buck in terms of a positive effect on the U.S. gross domestic product."

LOL. Like the Shrubbies would ever let a comment like this see the light of day.

the holidays. I appreciate the opportunity.
Also nice to see you have a bit more time to join today. :hi:

Which way will the wind blow on Wall Street today? Most talking heads are going both ways...

One step back?
Stock futures point to weak start after Thursday's big rally; 'quadruple witching' expiration looms.
<snip>
Friday brings no major economic news or corporate earnings reports.
It does bring the quarterly expiration of options and futures, which can make for a volatile trading session.
Some investors and veteran market watchers are saying that this quarter's "quadruple witching" expiration of index futures and options as well as stock futures and options could give the market a boost, mostly due to bets by investors that amount to pent-up demand for stocks.
<more>

Whatever. We can safely predict stock prices will move. Direction is another issue. :eyes:

Still haven't finished my shopping and the kids remain at home. Seems we were slightly misled--now they say not only were the holes in the buses from bullets, but they even know when and where the shots were fired. The bullets, however, did not penetrate to the passanger compartment. This is one of the largest school districts in the state (over 20,000 kids); what are they going to do if this guy isn't caught come New Year's? <Sigh.> And I will still drive the Outerbelt, fearing the guy on the cell phone in the car next to me more than the sniper.

This is truly shocking Maeve. At first it sounded as though they just "found some holes of indeterminate orgin". Now they say they are bullet holes and they know where and when they were made? This is really alarming.

Just dents that were determined to be bullet-made. (Don't ask me, I don't know.) And both drivers heard something, they just didn't think "gunshot" when they heard it--at least that's my current understanding of the sitch.

Anyway, I'm back; mall traffic was down this morning (no big sales), but the discount stores were still busy. Discounts are increasing--good news for all you folk who still have shopping to do!

Looks like the casino is having some discounting, too....

Dow 10,245.34 -2.74 (-0.03%)
Nasdaq 1,941.92 -14.26 (-0.73%)
S&P 500 1,085.50 -3.67 (-0.34%)
10-Yr Bond 4.156% +0.015

Sorry to hear about the stressful situation in your world Maeve. What is it with these lunatics? I mean, shooting at school busses? What the...???

Encouragement and comfort to you dear--

Julie

Vanishing jobs
Structural change in the economy means many jobs are never going to come back.
<snip>
Since 2001, some 2.9 million private sector jobs have been lost, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Many of those jobs won't ever return, even as the economy recovers, say experts. What's more, this isn't just true for blue-collar workers at places like Pillowtex.

"It's starting to happen in high-tech professions which we felt were 'ours,'" says Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at Global Insights, a consulting firm. "That's what's shocking people."

CHARLOTTE, N.C. (Reuters) - (excerpt)

OUTSOURCE PAIN

Unfortunately, some of the precious new high-end jobs are now being lost through outsourcing to cheaper locations like India, as big local employers like Bank of America are planning a subsidiary on the sub-continent to cut costs.

Out of Charlotte's top biggest publicly listed companies, 25 have used outsourcing to cut costs, according to a survey taken over the last three months and published on Sunday by the Charlotte Observer newspaper.

"This is the hidden story of the U.S. economy. We hear all these great numbers for growth, but in North Carolina, it's not doing great at all for the folks without work," said Bobby Sutton, an associate dean at the Southern Piedmont Community College which runs training course for Charlotte's unemployed.

<cut>
The U.S. trade deficit with China is forecast to rise to $125 billion this year, while the U.S. current account deficit is nudging toward 5 percent of GDP. At the local chapter of the Association of Machinist and Aerospace Workers union, a modest office in the flight path at the Douglas Charlotte International Airport, they feel the same way but doubt anything will change.

story

Apparently, the tech sector is predicted to shrink significantly from it's current reduced side due to outsourcing:

235,000 Fewer Programmers by 2015

"RonMcMahon writes "According to a CNN Money article, Forrester Research is predicting that there will be 235,396 fewer Computer Programmers and Software Engineers employed in 2015 than there are today in America. This is a 25% reduction in the number of positions from today's depressed numbers. This sucks. I know that many companies are moving work off-shore, but wow, that's half the population of Wyoming!" "

Geez - 25%. Guess I'd better try to hold on to my wretched job, huh?

And a more singular case of loss due to outsourcing:

Replaced by Outsourcing -- What's a Geek to Do?

"SafariShane asks: "Yesterday I was fired from my position as 'Network Security Analyst' from a financial institution. I was pushed out by a 3rd party vendor, who labeled me the major security risk, after performing a 'vulnerability assessment.' At the time, I thought a vulnerability assessment of our network was a good idea, but in retrospect, it occurs to me that this company, who's other product is 'Outsourced Network Monitoring and Intrusion Detection' may pull this little trick everywhere they go. Has this happened to any other network security folks out there. Does anyone know if this is a common practice, and what's a geek to do if they find out a 3rd party assessment is on the way? If this happens again at another institution, should I just start polishing my resume right away?" Here's a question I always wish I could ask managers, whenever the topic of 'outsourcing' comes up: if dealing with programmers overseas is more appealing to the bottom line, why not let your programmers work from home for 50-80% of their current in-office pay? For those of you who feel the threat of Outsourcing breathing down your neck, what are you doing to try and stay in your current job, or even in this current market?"

haha! Great Toon Ozy!! Perfect. Reminds me of one witty DUer who also coined the term "9 levels of Zell", a humorous twist of course on Dante's 9 levels of Hell. haha. We're such a cultured lot.

Well if I were to do my investing according to CNBC I wouldn't know which way to turn. EVERYTHING is just so fabulous!! One might even be so foolish as to do a great deal of buying margin....

Oy! The blatancy!!

Also, if I were to overhear some conversation somewhere in the Real World regarding investing, if commodities were mentioned I may wonder why they were including two languages in their discussion. "Commodities"??? I watch CNBC and they never say such words. ;-)

Happy Friday all! May it be a prosperous day. :hi:

Julie

Melting – “Up”

Today the technology stocks reversed a run of weaker days with a strong showing as they were led by 3Com’s report of better than expected quarterly results. Semiconductors, Internet, networks and computer hardware were among the best performing sectors. However, while the technology sector reversed its spat of weakness, the Blue Chips continued their strength as the shift to popular safe havens and companies that are actually making money continues. One can expect that with the returns the market posted in 2003, 2004 will be the “show me the money” year, and while everything is still an uncertainty shifting some of the gains from the high beta companies to the so-called defensive shares likely will be the flavor of the year.

The usual deluge of Thursday’s economic reports got the market off to a good start this morning when the weekly jobless claims reports showed a decrease of 22,000 initial claims during the past week bringing the total to 353,000. In a separate report, the U.S. index of leading economic indicators rose 0.3 percent in November. Six out of the 10 indicators increased in November, including consumer expectations, vendor performance, the factory workweek, stock prices, and interest rate spread. On the negative side of the index were building permits, money supply, new orders for non-defense capital goods, and new orders for consumer goods. Over the past six months, the index is up 2.2 percent, with nine out of 10 components advancing. Also joining in on the party was the Philly Fed business activity index, as it soared to 32.1 in December from a 25.9 in November, much higher than the 27.3 expected by economists.

As all the good news is pointing to the economic recovery the individual investor continues to throw money at the stock market. Hopefully, as some of what the market indexes are showing, is that this money is going to defensive shares as the uncertainty of the 2004 economic recovery begin to unfold. These shares likely will outperform the shares of companies that correspond to cyclical changes in the economy.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

Wall Street was expected to open lower on Friday, but low volume as traders and investors look ahead to the break for Christmas, may inject a dose of volatility into the market.

The expiry of futures and options contracts later in the session could make the ride even bumpier.

<cut>
Wednesday's rally was prompted by further good news on the US labour market. Not only did weekly initial claims fall unexpectedly sharply, but the employment component of the Philly Fed survey hit its highest level since 1973.

<cut>
Some participants believe investors are holding a large number of call options that are "in the money" due to the rises in the stock market and underlying stock prices. If they unwind their short positions by buying the shares, increased volatility is likely.

more

NEW YORK - U.S. stocks are set to open lower Friday after triple-digit gains Thursday. The lack of economic corporate news ahead of the Christmas holiday will likely leave the market with little direction.

<cut>
U.S. markets rose Thursday on analysts' upgrades of some bigger names, such as Honeywell International Inc. and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 102.82 points, or 1.01 percent, to 10,248.08; the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 34.85, or 1.81 percent, to 1,956.18; the Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 12.69, or 1.18 percent, to 1,089.17, very close to its own 19-month peak.

No economic data is expected Friday.

more

The people never learn. ;-)

Julie

I have never invested in the stock market. What has always bothered me is, why isnt the market considered a PYRAMID SCHEME?" I sincerely mean it. Only people that are in at the top and can stay in it long enough to weather fluctuations are able to make a profit. Can someone explain it to me.

You can go to their website at http://www.fool.com. The Gardner brother often recommend a buy-and-hold strategy to investing. Do your homework. You can start here at the Fool School.

Here is an excerpt from investing basics "Why Buy and Hold". I think this will address your issue about pyramid scheming.

Episode 1: Introduction
With every market correction comes a flurry of pronouncements that the so-called "buy and hold" approach is dead. Without even an attempt to define what is meant by the phrase "buy and hold," a bevy of journalists armed with all sorts of self-serving quips from traders and market timers descends upon the heartland of America. They then try to scare individual investors into putting all of their defined benefit retirement plans into the "money market" option, warning that stocks are "dangerous." The latest in a regrettable series of nonsense appeared in the Washington Post's Investing column over the weekend, but this is simply representative of a growing sentiment in pressrooms and on trading floors across the country. "Buy and hold is dead," they whisper. Now, it seems, only traders and market timers can make money. Individual investors are best-served by forking over their hard-earned savings to "financial professionals" who can actively manage the money appropriately, lining their pockets the whole time.

My take on this: as with nearly any venture, you must have money to make money. It takes longer to build a portfolio with some real liquidity if you do not have much money. And that's okay.

Good morning and happy Friday to everyone.
Some numbers to start the watch with...

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=s

Last trade 87.95 Change +0.10 (+0.11%)

Settle 87.85 Settle Time 23:34

Open 87.91 Previous Close 87.85

High 88.05 Low 87.82

Seems the dropping dollar has helped some of the base metals.

NEW YORK, Dec 18 (Reuters) - A plunging dollar has buoyed base metals prices amid a global economic recovery, and analysts said on Thursday they saw metals markets remaining in vogue heading into 2004.

As commodities priced in U.S. dollars become cheaper to buy overseas, copper, nickel and tin have soared in price to multiyear peaks this week.

In addition, near-insatiable demand in Asia and tightening supplies are lending support to prices.

"You are seeing commodity price inflation and that is directly tied to weakness in the dollar and this voracious Chinese demand in the market," said David Meger, metals analyst at Alaron Trading in Chicago.

The dollar was under heavy pressure due to investor concerns about the widening U.S. current account deficit and expectations benchmark U.S. interest rates will stay steady for some time. Those factors dampen demand for the dollar.

The greenback hit a fifth straight lifetime low against the euro of $1.2435 on Thursday. So far this year, the dollar has fallen more than 18 percent against the euro.

A weak U.S. currency typically encourages buying of dollar-denominated metals in foreign currencies.

http://www.reuters.com/financeArticle.jhtml?storyID=4017873&newsType=usGoldRpt&menuType=markets

I will be in and out again today. Still have so much to do before the family comes for the holiday. You would think that I would be on top of these things now that I have all the time in the world being unemployed. I just seem to lack focus and ambition these days.

That and DU is addicting! :D

I always like to catch up on currencies.

Nice that you'd take the time with company coming for holidays and all. Focus and ambition may return more easily after the holiday distractions. Here's to better days in '04! :toast:

Julie

soon. I think it has more to do with the grieving process of loosing a job than the holidays. I was one of those "grossly over paid" IT types. There is just nothing out there in my area.

But hey, Shrub has given us displaced workers $$$ to go to a tech school and learn new skills, like auto-mechanic or HVC repair or dental technician! Whodathunk that 4 year plus degree would be worthless so fast.

The 700 club can be very disorienting, apparently... :evilgrin:

And yeah, grieving over a lost job is part of the process. Back in the salad days of 2000, I was laid off from one job while having two others already in my pocket, and it still upset me for weeks. It's just not easy to put yourself and your effort into something like a decent job and then to have it yanked away from you for any reason is just plain wrong somehow.

So, although backseat advice is way too easy, I'd have to agree with Julie and urge to to relax over the next two weeks, enjoy the holidays with friends and family (commiserating with loved ones is always easier and nicer than commiserating with a bottle of scotch), and to come out fresh and ready for January.

I have to watch my pennies, I'm more than happy with a beer.:beer:

From the source-country's point of view, they'd have to raise the dollar price just to stay even.

For instance, if I've been doing my math correctly, the oil price has been dropping for Europeans. While the dollar price has been going up to compensate, I think the Euro has gained more over the dollar than oil has gone up.

Back when oil was $25/barrel and the Euro was at $0.80, oil was roughly €30 a barrel. Now, with oil around $32/barrel and the Euro at $1.20, it's something like €26/barrel (is that right?). This is the best economic reason for oil producing nations to switch away from the dollar, as I understand things.

rise in value. Reports that I have seen floating around the web state that the Euro is not only rising because of the dollar and that their exports to other countries are beginning to take a hit.

Hard to separate fact from "propaganda" these days though. It may just be trying to dissuade folks from playing the currency rate casino.

But since they'll be saving a lot of money on cheaper dollar-denominated components and energy, they could probably afford to lower their exported price to compete. I think it's a far more enviable position than having your currency devalued, and having to pay far more for overseas components and energy costs with no room to either raise or lower your price (ie., a squeeze).

luxury that the US dollar once had. I don't believe there is enough comfort with it to replace the dollar for oil much less as the reserve currency. It is over valued. I think OPEC stating they were thinking about changing to the Euro was a bit of a politcal play. It is a very young currency and has not stood up to this type of test before. Now, if things continue on this way for a longer period of time, they may well switch. The 1999 reserve agreements of the Euro nations will expire in 2004. What will happen after that is still an unknown.

The dollar has been in trouble before and has bounced back. That is what is on everyones mind right now, but that confidence is slowly eroding. It is now a wait and see game. We live in interesting times.

I wonder how many foreign currencies are tied to the dollar. I know there are some, but I'm not sure which. Anyways, I think oil producers tieing oil to the Euro would end up raising costs for just about everyone except for those using the Euro.

But the thing is, if oil producers did switch to the euro, oil importers with big dollar holdings (like Japan) would be likely to convert their currency reserves to euros. Many of the countries most vulnerable to oil price changes are also the ones with largest dollar reserves (other than the oil producers themselves). If they were to dump them for euros...

I'm sure I'm not bringing up anything new in this thread, so I'll stop with the 'Captain Obvious' impression. Carry on.

I didn't have time to do a reading this morning.

I'm running late to work, but I wanted to say hi to all my pals here in the stock thread!

As the French say, "Bon weekend!"

:hi:

"Caution"

I Ching smart. ;-) Hope you have a good weekend Coventina!

Julie

The casino is now open! Ten minutes in and here's how the action's lookin' early on:

Dow 10,290.96 +42.88 (+0.42%)
Nasdaq 1,956.88 +0.70 (+0.04%)
S&P 500 1,090.07 +0.90 (+0.08%)
10-Yr Bond 4.168% +0.027


Heavier betting on stocks than Treasuries to start. Will the day trend that way? Who knows in which direction Lady Luck's favorable nod will go today? :shrug:

Julie

I was last above 11,000 in early 2001. At the rate it is going it seems like it will hit 11,00 in no time. It has never been above 12,000.

Really just guessing, but I think it'll be solidly above 11,000 by November 2004.

It is on a precipice now IMO. I do not see it heading dramatically upward.

Julie

corrected. I'd prefer a nasty bruising to shattered bones!

Dow 10,280.00 +31.92 (+0.31%)
Nasdaq 1,957.05 +0.87 (+0.04%)
S&P 500 1,090.15 +0.97 (+0.09%)
10-Yr Bond 4.154% +0.013

I will be leaving soon. So this may be my last post of the day. Have a fun day watching the players cash in their chips Marketeers. I hope your pre-holiday weekend is as stress-less as possible.

Ozymandius

Last trade 88.23 Change +0.38 (+0.43%
High 88.23 Low 87.82

on edit add:
http://www.smartmoney.com/bn/ON/index.cfm?story=ON-20031219-000382-0933

This article holds an awful lot of different theories. Think they have covered all their bases. :D

snip>
Barring unforeseen negative developments, the conditions are in place for the dollar to continue clawing back some of its recent losses in the U.S. session Friday.

There are no U.S. economic data releases for dealers to sell the dollar on as they have done in recent weeks, irrespective of the numbers. Liquidity is thin and having already run up remarkable gains, many currencies are well overdue a correction lower

snip>
In addition, the specter of intervention from Japanese monetary authorities to sell yen for dollars looms large over the market.

snip>
Meanwhile, strengthening resistance to the euro climbing above $1.2440 could slow and perhaps reverse the single currency's upward momentum for a short while, analysts said.

However, the dollar has been ripe for a corrective move higher for several sessions, particularly Wednesday this week. Just as it appeared as if the dollar was going to begin rebounding that day, a report suggesting the European Central Bank would not intervene to halt the euro's rise until it reached $1.35 hit the wires and the dollar slid sharply to fresh lows.

snip>
"There is significant risk of year-end position squaring," wrote ABN Amro currency analysts in a research note Friday. "We suspect the bulk of will occur between today and Tuesday's U.S. close."

snip>
But any moves higher the dollar does make Friday aren't expected to be massive. The sheer momentum against the greenback and an unwillingness on the part of dealers to reverse that trend as the holiday season approaches will see to that.

Last trade 88.27 Change +0.42 (+0.48%)
High 88.38 Low 87.82

And this:
http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/content/102055/content.asp?menu=market&dia=19122003

Key factors today:

Any comments from central bank officials will be under close scrutiny, although trading is liable to be lacklustre today.

Euro/dollar:

The underlying factors are likely to be little changed in the short term and there is no evidence that a dollar selling climax has been seen. Nevertheless, there is the potential for a covering of short dollar positions and the overwhelmingly bearish sentiment suggests a correction may be close. There is still the risk of a move to 1.2480/1.2500 in the short term, but there should be a good correction from there and fresh short dollar positions still look dangerous at this stage.

snip>
The comments from ECB officials have been mixed over the past 24 hours. The officials are unlikely to signal major alarm, especially as this could fuel additional dollar selling. There remains the potential for gentle verbal intervention to help minimise speculative Euro buying.

I have to run a few errands. Will be back later this afternoon.

Nasdaq is dropping well below waterline, and Dow is moving in close to the water for the last 30 minutes. S&P following Dow progres but at a lower level. Looks like the morning's enthusiasm has evaporated into selling.

Dow 10,250.15 +2.07 (+0.02%)
Nasdaq 1,941.31 -14.87 (-0.76%)
S&P 500 1,085.95 -3.23 (-0.30%)
10-Yr Bond 4.160% +0.019

Howdy Steve! :hi:

Well I hope all chose their positions carefully today. Seems a bit of doubt spilleth over:


Dow 10,239.03 -9.05 (-0.09%)
Nasdaq 1,942.11 -14.07 (-0.72%)
S&P 500 1,085.17 -4.00 (-0.37%)
10-Yr Bond 4.160% +0.019


It is a beauteous snowny day here in the north. Popped in my favorite Vivaldi and will enjoy the snow falling on cedars (literally) while wrapping presents (and hiding them!) before kids come home. Will check in before end of day to see who the winners and losers are at the gaming tables today!!

Julie

"It is a beauteous snowny day here in the north. Popped in my favorite Vivaldi and will enjoy the snow falling on cedars (literally) while wrapping presents (and hiding them!) before kids come home."

Better than looking across the back of a junkyard from a generic office tower in the suburbs!

Well, speaking of Christmas cheer (or lack thereof in my cubical), I've got to go out and atone for a week of late work nights by trying to finish my shopping this afternoon. Have a great day marketeers (even as the markets go into an afternoon lull) and I will see y'all on Monday.

1:50 numbers -

Dow 10,239.41 -8.67 (-0.08%)
Nasdaq 1,942.58 -13.60 (-0.70%)
S&P 500 1,084.98 -4.19 (-0.38%)
10-Yr Bond 4.151% +0.010

<snip>
"It certainly can be called a Santa Claus rally," added Andy Brooks, head of equity trading at T. Rowe Price Associates Inc. in Baltimore. "The economic news coming is certainly very positive. We got more of it today."
<snip>

http://www.sunspot.net/business/bal-bz.economy19dec19,0,7727541.story?coll=bal-business-headlines

I always read this thread and I thank you all for contributing! I just usually do not participate because I'm still learning and know little.

I also appreciate your thought and input into a bit of helpful tips or guidance as we try to prepare for the worst case scenario while hoping for the best!

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all you level-headed wonders!!

:bounce: :hi:

We try to keep our heads while all around are going ga-ga....

Reuters
Dollar Slips on NYC Attack Threat Report
Friday December 19, 12:43 pm ET
By Manuela Badawy


NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar gave up some gains against the euro on Friday on the back of a report of an imminent threat of an attack in New York City, analysts said.

"There is a report from ABC News that there is a credible and imminent suicide bomber in NYC and the market is selling back dollars based on that," said Andrew Delano, foreign exchange analyst at IDEAGlobal, a Wall Street research firm.

There is still a very raw nerve in the market for things like this. The dollar seems to be negatively sensitive to increases in panic over terrorism and related kind of developments," Delano said.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/031219/markets_forex_8.html

On the subject of the dollar, I hope nobody missed this DU post.

ex_jew (250 posts) Fri Dec-19-03 12:54 PM
Original message
Dow actually flat last 12 months !

Has anyone else pointed out that while the Dow was zooming from 8500 to 10250, the dollar was slumping from $1.03 to $1.24 per Euro ? The Dow went up 20% at the very same time the dollar went down 20%. I think it's safe to say that the zooming Dow is a complete mirage. No wonder there are few other signs of a healthy economy.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=942018

Sounds like a terror threat is the last thing the Street needs.

Dow 10,278.22 +30.14 (+0.29%)
Nasdaq 1,951.02 -5.16 (-0.26%)
S&P 500 1,088.67 -0.51 (-0.05%)
10-Yr Bond 4.133% -0.008

Pretty flat in the end.

Thanks to all for insights, kind words and articles (I especially love d that "objective one toward the end there haha).

Safe and happy weekend Marketeers! :hi:

Julie