Phoenix, Arizona. July 22, 2003. Favorable job ratings for President George W. Bush have dropped to 56 percent in July from 69 percent in April, resuming the downward trend that has been registered in all but one quarter since January of 2002. At the same time, the proportion of Arizonans assessing his performance in the White House as “Poor,” rose to 21 percent, the highest such reading since April of 2001.
Ratings of the President’s performance are also becoming intensely partisan, with 79 percent of Republicans giving him favorable job ratings compared to only 36 percent among Democrats and 46 percent among Independents. Among Arizona voters most likely to go to the polls in a presidential election, Mr. Bush’s job ratings are 54 percent positive to 20 percent unfavorable.
The decline in Mr. Bush’s popularity may also be having an impact on the willingness of Arizonans to support his re-election. Today 56 percent favor another term for Bush, but the proportion strongly committed to vote for him now registers at only 36 percent. The balance of his supporters (19 percent), say they are not firmly committed to his re-election. Opposition to a second term totals 39 percent, including 28 percent who say their opposition is firm. Overall, only eight points separate staunch supporters and opponents of his re-election.
Viewed from another perspective, if one adds together uncommitted voters and those neither firmly committed for or against Mr. Bush’s re-election, 36 percent of voters could be considered “swing voters” at this time. If the downward slope in his job ratings continues,
by year’s end his ability to carry Arizona could be in question.
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