Subtropical Storm Andrea Has Formed Off Southeast Coast

Source: MSNBC

No specific link yet, breaking news banner on front page of MSNBC.com

No link yet.

I remember seeing stuff like this last year, except they would refer to something as Tropical Depression so-and-so. Used to be, a storm only got named once it hit tropical storm strength (35mph+).

Methinks this is just to give the media something to obsess over.

don't think it's obsession - being prepared is half the battle in situations like this.

because the water temperatures are not high enough. But the storm has all the other characteristics of a tropical storm.

hot core storms.

the cold core can be just as deadly

tropical depressions are different, as tropical depressions can turn into a hot core storm.

Started out as subtropical Gustav

The earlier forecasts I saw a few days ago didn't have this thing getting that strong.

I also learned something new today! :toast:

Unless it sits and churns out there for 4-5 days. It's winds were much stronger a day or two ago (about 70 mph).

Here's the latest runs on it.

The subtropical storm is forecast to linger off the coast on Wednesday with some slight westward movement toward the Georgia coast. The current forecast calls for the storm to gradually weaken just off the Georgia/South Carolina coast during the next two days. Details of this storm will be closely monitored.

The greatest impacts from this storm have likely peaked but tropical storm-force wind gusts are possible Tuesday night especially along the South Carolina coast. Although wave heights will decrease on Wednesday, they'll still be formidable especially along the North Carolina coast with breakers of 8 to 12 feet. Minor to moderate beach erosion is still possible and the high risk of rip currents will remain through at least Wednesday.

Coastal showers will move onshore from time to time especially along the South Carolina, Georgia, and northeastern Florida coast. Unfortunately for the arid Southeast, it will likely not be a soaking rainfall and will offer little help in battling the wildfires. By Thursday, impacts will lessen and conditions will slowly improve.

A high risk of rip currents extends up and down the coastline from North Carolina southward along the Atlantic coast of Florida.

High waves have been the most visible aspect of the storm. A buoy stationed 150 nautical miles east of Cape Hatteras documented 42 foot waves on Monday afternoon. The waves at this buoy have since decreased to 10-15 foot waves.

Along the immediate coast, the largest breakers have been found along the North Carolina coast. Waves are forecast to break between the 8 to 12 foot range during Wednesday not only for N.C. but also for much of the South Carolina coastline. Wave heights will be lower, between 1 to 5 feet, from coastal Georgia southward along Florida's coast.

Along with the thunderous waves, minor to major beach erosion and coastal flooding has also been documented. Coastal overwash spilled on top of U.S. 12 in the Outer Banks and portions of the road were at one point impassable on Monday. Major beach erosion and coastal flooding was also reported in Jupiter, Florida. The National Weather Service out of Miami reported a life guard office and garage were nearly washed into the ocean and about 100 feet of coast has been eroded. The road leading to Jupiter Inlet has since been closed. The pier at Flagler Beach (20 miles north of Daytona Beach) was also closed.

This will continue to be updated...

Throw away the calendar, hurricane season is here! The Hurricane Hunters are in the air, and found that the intensifying storm of the Georgia coast had acquired enough organization to be called Subtropical Storm Andrea. Here's the special advisory put out by NHC at 9am:


Special tropical disturbance statement
905 am EDT Wed May 9 2007

Satellite imagery and preliminary reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft this morning indicate that the area of low pressure centered about 150 miles east of Jacksonville is acquiring the characteristics of a subtropical cyclone. The system continues moving generally westward at about 5 mph. If present trends continue... advisories on subtropical storm Andrea would be
initiated later this morning.

Dangerous surf conditions continue along the coasts of the
Carolinas... Georgia... and northeastern Florida. Interests in these areas should continue to monitor products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.


Andrea has developed several bands of intense thunderstorm activity, well removed from the center. Tropical storm-force winds cover a wide swath of ocean surrounding the center. Winds from the 6:44am EDT pass of the QuikSCAT satellite (Figure 2) were as high as 50 knots (57 mph) in the heaviest thunderstorms on the southeast side. Winds overnight at buoy SKMG1 located about 60 miles off the Georgia coast were as high as 50 mph, gusting to 56 mph. These strong winds will continue to bring coastal flooding and significant beach erosion from North Carolina to northern Florida today.

more...

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=668&tstamp=200705

I live in Columbia, about 100 miles inland. The damn wind has been blowing hard for three days so far. I was in Charleston yesterday, and they were warning people to be careful driving across the tall bridges. Said wind gusts could hit 50 mph.

Suburban Charleston. They're saying we'll get as much as 2" of rain. We really need it.

and yes we do need the rain but I didn't need the tornado warning this am. Our home got hit by a tornado several years ago, in May. I rather just have a few days of rain then this thing out there.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/G1.html
The Atlantic hurricane season is officially from 1 June to 30 November. There is nothing magical in these dates, and hurricanes have occurred outside of these six months, but these dates were selected to encompass over 97% of tropical activity.


http://www.thestormtrack.com/2007/05/an_early_start_to_the_season.php
8PM EDT UPDATE: I was just looking at some observations from a buoy that is located about 180 miles east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Winds at this buoy have been above tropical storm strength (>39 mph) throughout the day.

The interesting thing to me though are the wave heights. Operationally, NHC warns of a 12-ft wave height radius for named systems, that is how far from the center of the storm does one find 12-ft high waves. Have a look below at the wave heights generated by this system. Pretty impressive.

Alas, looking at the latest model runs, this is most likely the height of the storm's intensity, so if NHC has not upgraded the system yet, it most likely will not. Still, this storm will be a significant rain/wind/surge event for the Southeast Coast, with hurricane force wind warnings posted off the South Carolina coast. If anything else happens with the storm, we'll try to get it posted here.
http://www.thestormtrack.com/WaveHt_8May07_0z.bmp

then May 10, May 20, June 1, June 10, etc. So the green area is outside the official hurricane season. You can see there are very occasionally hurricanes around May 20, and there was one (hurricane? named storm? I can't tell) before May 10, in those hundred and a bit years.

:kick:

Source: MSNBC

MIAMI - Subtropical Storm Andrea formed Wednesday off the southeastern U.S. coast, more than three weeks before the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season, forecasters said.

The year’s first named storm had top sustained winds near 45 mph and was centered about 140 miles southeast of Savannah, Ga., at 11 a.m. ET, the National Hurricane Center said. The storm was moving west at about 3 mph.

....

And Andrea's formation follows predictions that 2007 will be an active year.

Private and university forecasters have predicted that the 2007 season that starts June 1 and ends Nov. 30 will be especially active, producing up to 17 tropical storms and hurricanes and a "well above average" possibility of at least one striking the U.S. The federal government plans to release its predictions May 22.

....




Read more: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18573390/

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I think this year may be a bad one....

I got two bags of ice; four jugs of water; a case and a half of beer; a whole barful of whiskey, tequila and vodka; a newly purchased gas grill with an extra tank; and a freezerful of meat that I'll have to grill before it goes bad.

I am ready!

B-)

:evilgrin:

I love FLA and would love to move there one day. I just hope it is still there when I am ready.

My brother lives in Deerfield beach; he was complaining about is hurricane insurance doubling. Oh well stay safe

Hurricane season is going to happen. You certainly can't pick up your house and move it, so you have to deal with the hurricanes. You can either give in to despair or have a hurricane party. I choose the latter.

head north like this one.

ellen fl

What time should I be over?

Looks like it will be a very wet weekend in Daytona Beach as the storm track indicates

it's the 100 mph winds I have a problem with.

sub tropical storm is winds under 70 mph. I don't think it will gain hurricane force.

There's been much earlier storms in previous years, though. It's unusual, but not ridiculously so.

it's not the same type of storm. SOmeone pointed out that it is more like a winter pattern 'noreaster

cost too much money! I have been thinking this year may be very bad. We've had so little rain, NO WINTER at all and now we're getting hit with FIRE!

All I can do is sit and wait!!

n/t

I've lived in Florida all my damn life and I've seen more storms in recent years than all the other years put together!

I think I need to go from a house to an air-conditioned tent, I can always fold that up when a storm's coming.

store your stuff when the time comes!

The reason for the tent: you can drive away!

Never understood why mobile homes couldn't be moved anywhere. As a kid I always thought the idea was that if trouble was coming, you could up and leave!

1. you have the means, are able to do so and have a place to go (not too poor to afford transportation and not too sick to move)

2. 6 million other people don't get the same idea at the same time.

People talk about evacuating the Gulf Coast, but how will Long Island handle the next hurricane that heads that direction?

Looking very good. Might be fully tropical this time. Advisories may be re-initiated by Saturday morning.