STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday June 18

Source: DU

Monday June 18, 2007

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 583 LONG DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2355 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2067 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2028
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON June 15, 2007

Dow... 13,639.48 +85.75 (+0.63%)
Nasdaq... 2,626.71 +27.30 (+1.05%)
S&P 500... 1,532.91 +9.94 (+0.65%)
Gold future... 658.70 +2.80 (+0.43%)
30-Year Bond 5.26% -0.03 (-0.55%)
10-Yr Bond... 5.17% -0.05 (-0.88%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact actionpost@legitgov.org

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

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Read more: DU

Silver and Its Long-Term Cycles
BY TIM W. WOOD

There are two long-term cycles in silver that have historically proven significantly meaningful. The first is the 5-year cycle, and the second is the 10-year cycle, with the 10- year cycle being the more dominate of the two. It is important to understand that cycle analysis is nothing more than a method of quantifying market trends of similar degree. Because market cycles ebb and flow and are not rigid, we have to look at the common denominators and develop averages. We can then use these common denominators and averages as a guide for what might be expected in the future.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

Everyone enjoy Father's Day? I scooted my youngest off to a 2-week summer camp early yesterday morning and then proceeded to enjoy several cat naps throughout the rest of the day. ;)


As for the article, Mr. Wood seems to think the silver 10-year cycle top has been hit, eh? Runs counter to the Mogambo school of thought. Which to believe more (or less)?

That's why he barely receives the time of day when I post the WrapUp. Mr. Wood's strict adherence to Robert Rhea's eighty year-old market philosophy is tiresome. As far as this outmoded philosophy appeals to me: it's nostalgia-based. It also carries the same weight as allopathic medical practices of the same era.

The common denominator among all writers of the WrapUp rests in precious metals. That's not knocking the gold and silver bugs at all. Just pointing out a common trait among the financial sense crowd.

I've dabbled in the stock market for about 20 years, did quite well in the 90's (imagine that) and am still hanging in there with some very nice Janus Mutual Funds.

And thank you for dropping by. I too did pretty well during the 90s - even while being skinny on tech stocks. Today my portfolio is still disappointing despite the record run-up. I don't tinker with it at all.

Appreciate all the stock market news. The older I get, the more I realize the highs in the stock market aren't worth it. It's scary waiting for the big crash, and it will come. So I am basically out of stocks and am not worrying about my portfolio. There's not much in there now to worry about. :)

:donut: and lurkers. You said a mouthful DemReading. After many years of playing the market, I look at the market like throwing a ball in the air. I try to catch it going up and get out somewhere on the down side. As long as I get out above where I got in, I'm ahead of the game. I try to keep emotion out and that saves me from the could've, should've, would've blame game (which is an exercise in futility anyway). I have learned to be bullish and bearish but never piggish. I occasionally forget-but I don't lose as much now as I use to. I do my own homework and ask a lot of questions. You'd be amazed at the number of folks telling you you can spin straw into gold (all the while they are separating you from your gold). I have limited exposure in the market now (even with it going up) and am diversifying. But the greatest money maker has been paying off our debts. Just that saved interest payments has done more for my bottom line.:thumbsup:

Glad you are back, we missed you last week. It is good to pay off debts...our house is paid for and no car payments nor other major bills. Except there is always something that bursts the bubble. Last month lightening struck near our house. Zapped the circuit board to the furnace, printer, microwave, cable to TV and internet, and magnetized the color on TV (people look purple). Thankfully computer was good, except to replace the network interface card. To keep insurance premiums low, our deductible is $1000 and we have just reached that with electronic replacements. :(
And we received the bill for semi-annual property taxes. Always something. But health is good and kids on their own. The grandkids are fun :)

but had fun. Worked hard and played hard. Got to spend a bit on fun stuff for a change. Saw Knocked Up (very funny) and Once (small indi film-if you liked The Commitments you'll enjoy this). My teen daughter gave both thumbs up too. I am trying to score some free advanced tickets to the movie about Edith Piaf's life. I have always enjoyed her music-I have eclectic tastes. I want to see Evan-but that is about it for me in the way of movies this summer.

I got hubby a small flat screen tv and vcr for father's day-he was very happy. He'd not a big tech or tv nerd but he likes to watch old Hindi films and they are dvd only in most places. We so seldom 'buy' that it was a treat. I am not surprised that you reached you deductible on electronics-it is easy to do these days. The more complicated the plumbing-the easier to stop up the drain.

Ah for the day when my child is on her own and I have grandkids to brag on. I guess nieces and nephews will have to do til then. I'm like you...great family, dear friends, and good health are the true measure of wealth. Hubby and I are in the Fortune 100 on that measure.;)

I was taking care of 11 total care folks with 2 aides. Sorry I missed it.

I remember the first time I heard her music. I was watching the movie Bull Durham (I am such a base ball nut-no stats though). I knew enough French to make out the meaning. I watched the credits-looked up an album and voila. I like Maurice Chevalier, Jacques Brel and a lot of the older singer-song writers. I have been trying to find info on Ivy. She sang on the Something about Mary. It was in English and pop but I liked it. My best CD....French Rap and Swiss French Rap. Such a hoot.

Edith had a short but interesting life. I liked her work immediately but I have eclectic interests. She may be an acquired taste.

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 82.704 Change -0.095 (-0.11%)

Dollar Caught in Crosscurrents of Data, Will Sentiment Hold Euro Below 1.3400?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strategy_pieces/trade_or_fade/Dollar_Caught_in_Crosscurrents_of_1182145016947.html

Were it not for a final burst of price action in the waning hours of Friday afternoon, the dollar would have been up against the euro for the seventh week in a row rallying 300 points since the lows set at the end of April. However, the stealth rally has been so slow and steady that it was almost difficult to notice. The greenback’s gains are not doubt due in large to the improvement of the US data over the past several weeks as well as the upward creep in inflation gauges. PPI skyrocketed by 0.9% vs. 0.3% expected and CPI also registered its biggest headline gains since August 2005, but the market chose to focus on the slightly softer core CPI reading which dipped to 0.1% from 0.2% expected.

Yet in the end market sentiment remains divided between the bulls who argue that the worst of the Q1 slowdown is over, that growth is picking up and that inflation remains a serious threat and the bears who claim that the tick up in commodity prices is temporary and that housing continues to cast a large shadow over the US economy depressing everything in sight. Friday’s U of M numbers which slid 88.3 to 83.7 gave the last round to the bears, but its far from clear if they have won the match. For now we continue to be range bound and next week’s light calendar is unlikely to resolve the debate unless hosing prints worse than expected. -BS



...more...

from Friday afternoon:

US Dollar Gets Hit By Weaker CPI Report

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_fundamentals/US_Dollar_Gets_Hit_By_1181943664495.html

As expected, the consumer prices report set the tone for the US dollar early on in the New York morning. It wasn’t industrial production, TIC or even current account that set the day’s theme, it was inflationary pressures. Forever a harbinger of interest rate decisions to come, it seems that the report quells some speculation, at least for now, that rate hikes are in the foreseeable future. For the month, consumer prices rose better than the 0.6 percent consensus. However, dealing the dollar a death blow, core figures pared back, rising by only 0.1 percent. With slow but stable growth likely, inflationary pressures will come in line and keep pace with overall economic expansion. As a result, rate hikes will no longer be needed in calming what some deem as uncontrollable consumer prices. Confidence in this notion was more than evident as the US dollar fell the most in almost two months against the Euro, dropping against the British pound as well. Subsequently, next week doesn’t look be any better as momentum from today’s report will likely emanate along with the dearth of US data scheduled.

...more...

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/070618/ap/d8pr64sg0.html

The U.S. dollar was mostly lower against other major currencies in European trading Monday morning. Gold rose.

The euro traded at $1.3406, up from $1.3378 late Friday in New York.

Other dollar rates:

_123.40 Japanese yen, down from 123.46

_1.2399 Swiss franc, down from 1.2428

_1.0699 Canadian dollars, up from 1.0685
ADVERTISEMENT

The British pound traded at $1.9826, up from $1.9751.

Gold traded in London at $658.00, up from $653.60 late Friday.

In Zurich, gold traded at $655.95, up from $652.15.

Gold rose $6.60 in Hong Kong to $657.55.

Silver opened in London at $13.28, up from $13.15.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=a1oZM0kWnxqU&refer=commodities

June 18 (Bloomberg) -- Gold in Asia rose for a fourth day as a decline in the dollar boosted the appeal of the precious metal as a hedge against the U.S. currency. Silver advanced.

The price of gold generally moves in the opposite direction of the dollar which fell against the euro today ahead of U.S. government reports this week that may show a slump in the housing market.

``It is dollar weakness driving it higher this morning,'' Jonathan Barratt, managing director of Commodity Broking Services in Sydney, said by phone today. ``It seems to have found an intermediate floor around $645 to $650 level and the way it is trading it could reach the $662 level soon.''

more...

Oil prices fell slightly Monday but were supported by concerns over U.S. gasoline supplies still not meeting peak summer demand and militant attacks on oil facilities in Nigeria.

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Light, sweet crude for July delivery fell 34 cents to $67.66 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midday in Europe. The contract had risen 35 cents to settle at $68 a barrel Friday, its highest close since September.

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Last week's report by the U.S. Energy Department's Energy Information Administration showed gasoline inventories were unchanged at 201.5 million barrels for the week ended June 8. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had expected inventories to rise by 2 million barrels.

The report showed that U.S. refinery utilization, which had been expected to grow by 0.8 percentage points, fell 0.4 points to 89.2 percent in the week ended June 8, the second straight weekly decline. Most analysts say refineries should be using 94 percent to 95 percent of their capacity at this time of year.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

And I saw $2.77 in Cincinnati on Sat. whereas over Memorial Day it was as high as $3.49 in that part of the town we'd been in then. $0.70 drop in 3 weeks. wow.

Prices range from 2.89 on the outskirts of the inner city to 3.09 at gas stations located near the interstate.

in H town now either at $2.79-$3.09, but I have found cheaper gas in the smaller outlying towns and filled up this weekend at $2.74 when I was doing prn work. It was nice to get that price break since that is a long commute. The folks are extra nice to Nurses there because they recognize the uniform colours;)

We now look upon 2.79/gal as a bargain. How our perspective has changed since 2001.

ITA.

WASHINGTON - A push from Congress and the White House for huge increases in biofuels, such as ethanol, is prompting the oil industry to scale back its plans for refinery expansions. That could keep gasoline prices high, possibly for years to come.

With President Bush calling for a 20 percent drop in gasoline use and the Senate now debating legislation for huge increases in ethanol production, oil companies see growing uncertainty about future gasoline demand and little need to expand refineries or build new ones.

Oil industry executives no longer believe there will be the demand for gasoline over the next decade to warrant the billions of dollars in refinery expansions — as much as 10 percent increase in new refining capacity — they anticipated as recently as a year ago.

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This spring, refiners, hampered by outages, could not keep up with demand and imports were down because of greater fuel demand in Europe and elsewhere. Despite stable — even sometimes declining — oil prices, gasoline prices soared to record levels and remain well above $3 a gallon.

Consumer advocates maintain the oil industry likes it that way.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070617/ap_on_bi_ge/ethanol_refineries

the oil industry has no plans to expand the current refinery capacity because it would cut in to profits. This is the end time of oil and they know it. We will still need oil for petroleum based products-but not so much for cars. The gulf coast and La and Tx have been very amenable to the oil industry and they could have built refineries here any time they wanted-BUT THEY CHOSE NOT TO BUILD. All those other excuses they give are just bull shit.

Right now Texas is working on wind and solar energy. We are blessed with abundant energy here (all but coal) and give companies leeway in the form of credits and friendly regulations to start up. You can't drive through west Tx anymore without seeing giant wind turbines (shades of Cervantes) on distant mesas. And there is no reason why they can't include giant solar collectors there either. Eventually they will. The biggest concern we have is bird migratory routes-but that is a workable problem.

NEW YORK - The stock market is once again poised to set new record highs, and Wall Street will be watching this week's data on the housing market to decide whether to forge ahead.

The National Association of Homebuilders on Monday releases its housing index for June. Last month, the May index registered at 30, down from 33 in April, suggesting a deteriorating outlook for the housing market.

The next day, the Commerce Department reports on housing starts and building permits. The market predicts that construction of new homes and apartments slipped in May, but that building permits rebounded from a 10-year low in April, according to economists surveyed Friday by Thomson Financial.

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Wall Street has been fairly confident that falling home prices and rising mortgage defaults won't damage the broader economy, but if mortgage rates — closely tied to the 10-year yield — keep rising, fewer people will want to buy homes and fewer homeowners will be able to refinance. If that happens, the residential real estate market's troubles could snowball, eat into consumer spending and dampen corporate profits.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070617/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/wall_street_week_ahead

NEW YORK - Chip designer Alereon Inc. said Monday it is releasing the first chip that uses a frequency band that is legal all over the world for wireless USB, a technology with the potential to cut the tangle of cables surrounding computers.

The new chip could prove an important step in persuading computer makers to incorporate the technology. A few wireless USB products are already on the U.S. market, but they send and receive signals over a frequency that isn't legal in most of the world because of potential interference with radar.

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The underlying radio technology is called ultra-wideband, or UWB, and uses frequencies far above those usually employed for Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, cellular phones and other wireless technologies. It's relatively virgin territory in the airwaves, and exploiting it promises high data transfer rates with low power consumption at the price of range — the signal hardly goes further than 30 feet.

In theory, UWB can reach speeds of up to 480 megabits per second, equivalent to USB 2.0 cables, at distances up to 10 feet, but Alereon spokesman Mike Krell said first-generation devices were not that fast.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070618/ap_on_hi_te/wireless_usb

NEW YORK, June 18 (Reuters) - U.S. stock futures rose on Monday, boosted by a flurry of deal news including a report that BHP Billiton has revived plans for a $40 billion takeover of aluminum producer Alcoa Inc.

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In other takeover news, General Electric Co. and Pearson Plc may challenge News Corp.'s $5 billion bid for Dow Jones & Co. with a plan that could let Dow Jones's controlling Bancroft family keep an interest in the company, the Financial Times and The Wall Street Journal reported on their Web sites.

http://today.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2007-06-18T114743Z_01_N18363268_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-STOCKS-UPDATE-1.XML

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aLCKzZNDSjmQ&refer=asia

June 18 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks rose for a third day, driving benchmarks in China, Hong Kong and South Korea to records, as prices of metals and crude oil advanced and the yen weakened against the dollar.

Rio Tinto Group climbed, becoming the first A$100 share on the Australian stock exchange. Toyota Motor Corp. gained on expectations a weaker yen will boost dollar-denominated sales. China's CSI 300 index surged 2.8 percent, having taken less than two weeks to rebound from a rout that erased more than $400 billion of market value.

``The commodities boom is a key theme for investors, based largely on the view that demand from China is going to continue to hold up,'' said Atul Lele, who helps manage about $380 million at White Funds Management in Sydney. ``Rio is playing a big role, given its size and the diversified nature of its businesses.''

The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index added 1.2 percent to 153.43 as of 3:30 p.m. in Tokyo, extending a two-day 1.4 percent rally. Indexes rose around the region, with Singapore, Indonesia and the Philippines also setting new highs. Taiwan's market is closed for a holiday.

Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average gained 1 percent to 18,149.52. Sony Corp. climbed as a report showed U.S. core inflation slowed, suggesting borrowing costs in the world's largest economy won't be raised.

/...

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/070618/kyodo/d8pr2l5g0.html

Tokyo stocks surged Monday on the yen's depreciation and rises in U.S. stocks, allowing the Nikkei index to wipe out the losses incurred since February's global stock plunge.

The 225-issue Nikkei Stock Average rose 178.03 points, or 0.99 percent, to 18,149.52, topping its closing quote of 18,119.92 on Feb. 27, the day before the global stock plunge. The broader Topix index of all First Section issues on the Tokyo Stock Exchange gained 15.45 points, or 0.87 percent, to 1,788.39.

The key indexes extended their winning streaks to a third trading day, mirroring the three-day rally through Friday in key U.S. stock gauges -- the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index.

Easing inflation worries in the United States on a weak consumer price report for May released by the U.S. Labor Department, coupled with a decline in long-term U.S. interest rates, helped boost U.S. stocks on Friday.

"With the possibility looking high for a soft-landing by the U.S. economy, global stocks are likely to advance," said Hiroichi Nishi, equities chief at Nikko Cordial Securities Inc.

Nishi said that in addition to growing optimism about the course of the world's largest economy, the yen's recent depreciation was a plus because a weaker yen fuels expectations that export-reliant Japanese companies could revise their earnings estimates upward.

Export-oriented automaker and high-tech issues like Toyota Motor were buoyant in particular as the euro hit a record high in the mid-165 yen zone earlier in the day. The U.S. dollar was also near a four-and-a-half-year high in the upper 123 yen zone.

Katsuhiko Kodama, senior strategist at Toyo Securities Co., said that market sentiment was also propped up by data showing that foreign brokerages placed a large volume of net buying orders prior to Monday's opening. Foreign brokerages' pre-opening orders are regarded as a key barometer for assessing foreigners' investment appetite in Japan.

"There was a sense of nervousness over recent sharp rises, but the market was firmly supported," Kodama said. "If foreign investors keep buying a large volume of shares, it will help the Nikkei to top recent highs."

/...

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20070618:MTFH39085_2007-06-18_06-56-51_T177826&type=comktNews&rpc=44

TOKYO, June 18 (Reuters) - The Japanese government repeated on Monday the nation's economy is recovering despite weak industrial output, while some cabinet ministers were wary about recent rises in long-term interest rates.

The monthly report came as government bond yields fell and the yen weakened to a record low against the euro on comments by Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui on Friday that made a rate hike before August unlikely.

"The economy is recovering, despite weakness in some sectors of industrial production," the government said in its report, reiterating the phrase it has used since April.

Revised data showed last week that Japan's economy grew an annualised 3.3 percent in January-March, outperforming both the United States and the euro zone for the second straight quarter.

The current growth phase that began in early 2002 is now the the longest post-war growth period, although the pace of expansion has been much more modest than previous booms.

"As for the outlook, we need to pay attention to the impact of oil prices, but we expect a recovery trend to continue," Economics Minister Hiroko Ota told a news conference. Continued...

/...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aIfOKW9oXpKM&refer=asia

June 18 (Bloomberg) -- China's key stock index rose to a record, having taken less than two weeks to rebound from a rout that erased more than $400 billion of market value.

...

The CSI 300 climbed 128.19, or 3.1 percent, to 4227.57 at the close, with about 90 percent of the shares included in the measure advancing. It has tripled in the past year, the biggest gain among 90 global benchmarks tracked by Bloomberg.

``Investors keep buying shares as a rumored clampdown involving measures such as interest-rate increases failed to materialize over the weekend,'' said Chen Shide, who manages the equivalent of $212 million at GF Fund Management Co. in Guangzhou. ``It can't be ruled out that the government will still take action.''

The CSI 300, which tracks yuan-denominated A shares listed on China's two exchanges, plunged as much as 22 percent from May 29's record close of 4168.29 after the government tripled the tax on securities trades. It took about a month to recoup a single-day loss of 9.2 percent on Feb. 27, the biggest slide since the gauge was introduced in April 2005.

...

China's bank regulator has found that eight banks including Bank of China have illegally lent money to companies that used the funds to buy stocks, Capital Week magazine reported. The regulator retracted a June 5 press release on its findings amid concern the news will trigger a market slump that causes borrowers to default on their loans, it said.

Interest Rates

China's securities regulator summoned managers and chief investment officers of 57 mutual funds last week, telling them to refrain from speculating on market rumors for short-term gains, China Business News reported today.

Sichuan Changhong Electric jumped by the daily limit after the company announced Microsoft Corp. has agreed to buy 15 million new shares for 94 million yuan ($12 million), or 6.27 yuan each. The shares rose 0.99 yuan to 10.92.

The Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks the bigger of China's stock exchanges, gained 2.9 percent to 4253.35. The Shenzhen Composite Index, which covers the smaller one, rose 2.8 percent to 1257.75.

/...

http://mwprices.ft.com/custom/ft2-com/html-story.asp?pulse=true&siteid=ft&dist=ft&guid=%7B1851fc83%2D5417%2D4cfe%2Db01a%2Df16a1cee47f8%7D

Lead hit a new record at $2,420 a tonne on Monday before easing back to $2,400 a tonne amid concerns about supplies from China which has imposed a 10 per cent tax on exports of unwrought refined lead from June 1. China produced 2.68m tonnes of lead last year and about one-fifth of this was exported. “There’s widespread expectation that some of the exports from china will be hit because of more expensive shipments and on the back of that, people are going long on lead (betting on further price appreciation)” said Michael Widmer, metals analyst at Calyon. Copper rose to $7,580 a tonne after a fall of 1,300 tonnes in LME stocks. A upsurge in labour unrest has prompted covering of short positions in the market. In Peru, workers at Southern Copper’s two mines and a smelter will go on an indefinite strike from June 23. A threatened strike at Grupo Mexico’s operations in Mexico have been put on hold after the government declared it illegal. In Chile, the world’s largest copper producing country, negotiations at the large Collahuasi mine have stalled and subcontractors at other mines said support was growing for strike action. “Our advice is don’t be short copper,”said Robin Bhar of UBS: “With copper prices remaining high and mining companies’ revenues very strong, militancy among the workers is likely to stay active which should underpin prices.”

Reminds me of the decades-old competition between Beta and VHS. Beta should have won the consumer market because of its higher quality image and sound. Consumers apparently did not know that. So I wonder if there is a remarkable difference between the Blu-ray and HD DVD products.

LOS ANGELES (AP) -- Blockbuster Inc. will rent high-definition DVDs only in the Blu-ray format in 1,450 stores when it expands its high-def offerings next month, dealing a major blow to the rival HD DVD format.

The move, being announced Monday, could be the first step in resolving a format war that has kept confused consumers from rushing to buy new DVD players until they can determine which format will dominate the market.

Blockbuster has been renting both Blu-ray and HD DVD titles in 250 stores since late last year and found that consumers were choosing Blu-ray titles more than 70 percent of the time.

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Sony, which is pushing Blu-ray, recently slashed the price of its player by more than half to $499. The player retailed for $1,000 when it first was introduced.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070618/blockbuster_blu_ray.html?.v=13

of these corporate pissing contests. I preferred beta quality to VHS, I loved the warm sound of vinyl to tinny sound of CD's, and where are the 8 tracks and reel to reel's.
We have VHS and finally DVD, and we have CD's too...but I'll be damned if I'll switch again. There comes a point when it just doesn't merit it. At the risk of sounding like an old fogey, this is another way to part you from your cash.

Blu-Ray is just superior in this case so I'm glad to see this.

that's interesting!

NEW YORK (Fortune) -- During the height of the real estate bubble, mortgage lenders were often shameless in how they pursued new business. Whether it was jacking up hidden closing costs to make loans appear cheaper than they were or using absurdly-low teaser rates on option- or interest-only ARMs to get customers in the door, lenders made owning a home seem easy.

Too easy. Fast forward a couple years, and mortgage defaults are skyrocketing. Foreclosures were up 90 percent in May alone, according to RealtyTrac. And lenders are finally realizing that coaxing consumers to borrow more than they can really afford is, as business strategies go, just plain dumb.

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Just consider the direct-mail solicitation I recently received from GMAC Mortgage. The letter was addressed to me as a "Washington Mutual Customer"- I have a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage with WaMu - and it began ominously: "You've probably read about it in the newspaper or seen it on the nightly television news. Many mortgage lenders all across the country are heading for financial trouble because they have made too many questionable loans. Some lenders may even go out of business. And what will become of the people who trusted those lenders if that happens?"

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GMAC's pitch is absurd on so many levels I barely know where to begin. First off, the letter implies if you have a conforming mortgage, as I do, that you could somehow lose your mortgage should your lender go bankrupt. That's simply untrue. Sure, there could be some servicing glitches should your loan be acquired by another bank, but that's more an annoyance than a genuine financial safety issue.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/06/15/news/companies/pluggedin_birger_mortgage.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2007061806

from Bonddad

This paragraph from a WSJ article got me thinking:

Tom Sowanick, chief investment officer for investment manager Clearbrook Financial LLC's Clearbrook Research unit, says concerns that rising rates will hurt corporate stocks may be overblown. He notes that since its June 2003 trough, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note has climbed two percentage points, and the yield on the two-year note has risen nearly four percentage points. During the same period, he says, the S&P 500 has risen 64%, while the Russell 2000 Index, a measure of small-stock performance, is up 95%.

Let's look at a few points.

1.) US interest rates are rising from generational lows. Here is a chart of the effective Federal Funds rate. Notice it is rising from the lowest levels of a generation.

-see chart-

So -- while interest rates are increasing, it's important to remember where they're rising from: the lowest rates we'll see in our lifetime.

09:02 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.8. The bullish bias remains intact as a lack of unsettling headlines, healthy gains in Asian markets overnight and the dip in market rates have kept sellers at bay.

08:45 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.8.

08:31 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.8. There hasn't been any significant change in the futures indication. Accordingly, the broader market remains headed for a modestly higher open, driven by carryover momentum and a lack of negative news of note.

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20070618:MTFH44358_2007-06-18_11-27-11_L18371887&type=comktNews&rpc=44

PARIS, June 18 (Reuters) - The Bank of France questioned on Monday why certain countries decided to run up huge foreign currency reserves, saying their choice could not be justified on grounds of financial security.

The report questioned whether China's $1.2 trillion in foreign exchange reserves as of the end of March was "really a gauge wealth".

Without then specifically mentioning China, it said countries would be better served looking to boost the value of their own currencies rather than accumulate other nations' currencies.

"In certain countries, the holdings of foreign reserves, which are increasing at a rapid rate, greatly exceed what can be justified for reasons of insurance," the report said. "This then becomes problematic for pursuing monetary policy."

The Bank of France said seeing foreign reserves as an indication of a nation's wealth, was a "mercantile" way of viewing the economy.

"The wealth of a nation is not so much measured by the total of its currency reserves but by its capacity to buy foreign goods thanks to improvements in its own terms of exchange, favouring a strategy of balanced and sustainable growth," the report said.

that article had me cracking up....that is so totally a French view point. I can say that and not be insulting because of my French background. Thanks for the chuckles:rofl:

the stronger €uro has certainly helped somewhat control prices for oil and other imported commodities...

the euro will give the greenback a run for the money :evilgrin:. And yah, I am sure the Chinese are still smarting from the French insult about their 'mercantile' economy.

What was that insult from Search for the Holy Grail "I fart in your general direction".

Global systemic crisis / Summer 2007 : Fed looses control on US interest rates and crisis reaches China and EU
Public announcement GEAB N°16 (Special Summer 2007 issue - 23 pages!)
http://leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-16-is-available!-Global-systemic-crisis-Summer-2007-Fed-looses-control-on-US-interest-rates-and-crisis-reaches_a713.html?PHPSESSID=1b35f747f8c8cdee7b8beb462c7de388

This second quarter's fundamental event about to shove most players' anticipations over the coming months, is certainly the final and simultaneous failure of the two key-strategies defined by US leaders, i.e.:

. in the economic, financial and monetary fields, the Fed' policy initiated a year ago when M3 publishing was abandoned and aimed at substituting a financial and stock bubble to the bursting housing bubble in order to maintain US growth (and capital attractiveness) has now patently failed, thus entailing a historical loss of the Fed's control on US interest rates (for the first time since 1918, except in times of war or social/economic depression)

. in the military, strategic and diplomatic fields, the stability plan for Iraq is a complete failure taking place in the framework of Washington's growing political paralysis (which LEAP/E2020 plans to describe in GEAB N°17 - on subscription).

Spring 2007 indeed appears as the tipping point of the global systemic crisis: the US economy went into recession, US interest rates were restored, the bond market is in crisis, the subprime crisis begins to hit large US financial institutions such as Bear Stearns (1), Goldman Sachs (2) and Freddie Mac (3), the US housing crisis is speeding up (4), the paralysis of Washington's political power grows (5), the isolation of the US on the international arena increases, the security plan for Iraq proves to be a complete failure, the US is powerless against Iran, the relaunch of the Israelo-Arab peace process aborts, trade tensions between China and the US rise, a growing number of countries (Kuwait, Syria,…) flee from the US dollar, etc…

However, according to LEAP/E2020 researchers, it is undeniably this Fed's and White House's (Pentagon's) double simultaneous failure which affects most the unfolding of the global systemic crisis for the months to come, as it precipitates China and the EU into the « vacuum » thus created and thrusts the US into « recessflation ».

http://imgred.com/

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http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20070618:MTFH44147_2007-06-18_11-16-33_L18497010&type=comktNews&rpc=44

LONDON, June 18 (Reuters) - European shares traded flat on Monday, hovering around their highest level in 6-1/2 years, as a rally in chemical stocks lent support to the market after ICI (ICI.L: Quote, Profile , Research) shunned a takeover bid.

Among major movers, Invensys (ISYS.L: Quote, Profile , Research) jumped on market talk Siemens (SIEGn.DE: Quote, Profile , Research) could make a bid, while Adecco (ADEN.VX: Quote, Profile , Research) gained after saying it would buy Germany's Tuja group.

"A lot of investors are looking for defensive but steady returns, and this is very tricky in an environment of higher interest rates," said Andreas Kampe, fund manager at Bayern Invest in Munich.

"This is the recipe for the wall of doubt we are softly crawling up. Investors are really cautious but caution doesn't give you any yield, so it's a real conundrum."

At 1057 GMT, the FTSEurofirst 300 <.FTEU3> index of top European shares was down 0.1 percent at 1,623.5 points, after earlier hitting 1,630.69, its highest since Nov. 17, 2000.

The FTSEurofirst 300 rose 3.7 percent last week, as interest rate fears eased, after rising bond yields had driven a similar-sized fall in equities the previous week by drawing investors towards fixed income.

France's CAC 40 <.FCHI> fell 0.1 percent while Germany's DAX <.GDAXI> rose 0.4 percent and Britain's FTSE 100 .FTSE slipped 0.1 percent. Continued...

/...

http://mwprices.ft.com/custom/ft2-com/html-story.asp?pulse=true&siteid=ft&dist=ft&guid=%7Ba6035f0c%2D2635%2D45b4%2Dbe73%2D8bbf1b3b0881%7D

The European chemicals sector was in focus on Monday after ICI rejected a £7.2bn takeover approach from Dutch rival Akzo Nobel. Despite the snub, the UK group’s shares jumped 16.7 per cent to 640½p on hopes of a higher bid while Akzo lost 1.1 per cent to €60.91. BASF rose 2.3 per cent to €94.19 and Linde gained 2 per cent to €83.97. Analysts at Citigroup said consolidation in the sector was “inevitable”, adding that ICI could also turn the table and bid for Akzo. “Akzo Nobel is in the stronger financial position to bid for ICI. However, ICI, with perhaps only modest additional equity, has the financial firepower to bid for Akzo Nobel. Indeed, both companies are vulnerable to bids, given their strong cash generation potential and financial positions. On balance, Akzo Nobel is more likely to be the predator,” analyst Andrew Benson wrote in a note. In the wider market, the FTSE Eurofirst 300 was down 0.1 per cent to 1,623.8 while the CAC 40 fell 0.1 per cent to 6,100.53 in Paris and the Xetra Dax in Frankfurt rose 0.5 per cent to 8,074.55.

http://mwprices.ft.com/custom/ft2-com/html-story.asp?pulse=true&siteid=ft&dist=ft&guid=%7B9c5ea058%2D7bfc%2D495c%2Db5d5%2Df9bb0020ebcf%7D

London kept small gains in mid-session trade on Monday, as investors poured in to Imperial Chemical Industries following the company’s rejection of Akzo Nobel’s bid. ICI was trading 16.8 per cent higher at 641p, well above Akzo’s 600p-per-share bid price. The maker of Dulux paints told shareholders it unanimously rejected Akzo’s offer because it “significantly undervalued” the company. Market rumour linked ICI with potential rival offers from Dow Chemical in the US and and BASF in Germany. In the wider market, the FTSE 100 was 4 points firmer lower at 6,736.1. The FTSE 250 was 0.2 per cent lower at 11,975.6, boosted by strength in mid-cap oil explorers after Tullow Oil announced a major discovery in Africa. United Utilities featured among the blue-chips, trading up 1.2 per cent at 752p as traders talked of a possible 900p-per-share bid for the utility. Rolls-Royce was trading at record highs, up 0.7 per cent at 550½p, after it announced an engine deal with Qatar Airways and Airbus worth $5.6 billion, its most valuable non-military engine order on record. Rolls-Royce will provide the engines for 80 new Qatar Airways Airbus A350 planes. ICI’s extraordinary gains lifted the chemicals sector, as anticipation of a bidding war stoked hopes for industry-wide consolidation. Elementis gained 2.7 per cent to 95¾p, and Croda was trading 2 per cent higher at 696p.

http://mwprices.ft.com/custom/ft2-com/html-story.asp?pulse=true&siteid=ft&dist=ft&guid=%7B0e6c4b99%2Dea4d%2D4c11%2D9359%2Daff593c739bf%7D

...

In the wider market, the FTSE Eurofirst 300 closed down 0.3 per cent to 1,620.28. The CAC 40 fell 0.3 per cent to 6,087.15 while the Xetra Dax was higher by 0.1 per cent at 8,036.12.

/..

http://mwprices.ft.com/custom/ft2-com/html-story.asp?pulse=true&siteid=ft&dist=ft&guid=%7B8794c60e%2Dba8f%2D46c2%2D925e%2D9f16121f5b3e%7D

London equities made further broad-based losses on Monday afternoon, as investors poured in to Imperial Chemical Industries following the company’s rejection of Akzo Nobel’s bid. ICI was trading 15.6 per cent higher at 635p, well above Akzo’s 600p-per-share bid price.

...

On the downside, Pearson, the owner of the Financial Times, fell 1.3 per cent to 862.5p after weekend presses reported it was mulling a joint GE-Pearson counterbid for US financial information company Dow Jones. Any offer would presumably be at a premium to News Corp’s $60-per-share bid. The FTSE 100 closed 29 points lower at 6,703.5, a loss of 0.4 per cent. The FTSE 250 was 0.4 per cent lower at 11,947.5, but boosted by strength in mid-cap oil explorers after Tullow Oil announced a major discovery in Africa.

/..

9:31
Dow 13,653.63 Up 14.15 (0.10%)
Nasdaq 2,630.40 Up 3.69 (0.14%)
S&P 500 1,534.35 Up 1.44 (0.09%)
10-Yr Bond 5.144% Down 0.027
NYSE Volume 29,420,000
Nasdaq Volume 43,314,000

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/17/technology/17ecom.html?_r=1&ref=business&oref=slogin

Since the inception of the Web, online commerce has enjoyed hypergrowth, with annual sales increasing more than 25 percent over all, and far more rapidly in many categories. But in the last year, growth has slowed sharply in major sectors like books, tickets and office supplies.

snip...

The reaction to the trend is apparent at Dell, which many had regarded as having mastered the science of selling computers online, but is now putting its PCs in Wal-Mart stores. Expedia has almost tripled the number of travel ticketing kiosks it puts in hotel lobbies and other places that attract tourists.

The slowdown is a result of several forces. Sales on the Internet are expected to reach $116 billion this year, or 5 percent of all retail sales, making it harder to maintain the same high growth rates. At the same time, consumers seem to be experiencing Internet fatigue and are changing their buying habits.

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"At the same time, consumers seem to be experiencing Internet fatigue."

I've cut back on my internet buying because my pay is stagnant and inflation is not, simple math. I still spend as much time on the internet as ever (hmm, maybe that's not a good thing).

is the group affected. The very poor don't shop on the net (limited computer access and limited credit card access and limited money). Bet most of those dropping out are the squeezed and tapped out middle class, for the above mentioned reasons.

I run a business producing a luxury product, with a low, mid range and high end price point. My goods are carried at some Neiman Marcus and high end specialty stores.

Over the last two years I have seen my sales in the low and mid range drop steadily, however, my increases in sales on the high end has more than made up the shortfall. It is sad to watch, I see it up close as I do shows at my retailers and there are many long time clients that in the past I would see every show, who now come in less frequently or not at all anymore. I hear it all from the sales associates who tell me, it is that people don't have the money anymore as housing has dropped, people are worried about the war, gas prices, and the general cost of everything. Because I create and sell a niche product, I can probably survive here in the states, however, I have begun to expand my overseas business, what is different about it, most of my clients there pay in cash or with a check, and very few use cards.

My clients, in the low to mid range, pay with credit cards, my high end clients will pay with a check.



-mojavekid

Mojave-good observation. I have noticed the trend with Christmas Sales. Neiman's does well, WalMart takes a hit. There is only one reason for this.

And you hit on a good point-wealthy pay in cash/check.

Another thing I learned in my debt reduction program-when you flash the cash...you can get a better deal.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/story/0,,2104908,00.html

There's money out there, but little sign of responsibility

The Guardian

No two moments in history are the same, but I have found myself increasingly thinking a lot about the Eighties lately. It is because everyone is talking about money again, particularly other people's money: their property, the lavishness of entertainment, the extent of their staffs, the fatiguing ingenuity it takes to make a dent on the enormous bonuses brought home by the big City earners

It was sometime between mid-1987 and 1988 that people became overwrought on the subject of money, and then again in the dotcom boom of the late Nineties, though the talk was not nearly so widespread nor so intense. But today in London there is a atmosphere of gold rush, and the money made by the few who have seized the mining rights - that is to say hedge fund managers, private equity barons, the banking aristocracy, foreign billionaires - cascades to make lesser fortunes for estate agents, art dealers, wine dealers, restaurateurs, jewellers and anyone who offers a service or an item to sell that is in limited supply.

snip...

Whatever you call it - silly money or serious money - it is undeniably big money, and the world has never seen fortunes made so quickly by so many and so mysteriously. In New York - it could just have easily been London - there was recently a party for the top hedge fund earners held by a publication called the Institutional Investor's Alpha Magazine (which carries a league table each year of the 25 best earners). Coming top was James Simmons, a 69-year-old former mathematics professor who is shy of the press and peered out of the party pictures like a man being honoured for long service in a book store. Using complicated mathematics models, he made $1.7bn last year. The rest of the list consisted of people who had made more than $240m.

snip...

This week the big auction houses expect to sell a record £450m of modern masterpieces, including a portrait by Lucian Freud of his late friend Bruce Bernard, which is estimated at £5.5m. Bruce had slightly more money than his more famous brother Jeffrey, but the idea of this amount being paid for his gently despondent countenance would have made him hoot with laughter.

The property market is hectic because of the vast weight of money at the top. Demand outstrips supply so houses can earn more per annum than their owners and estate agents are buying Porsches again. At Savills a pool of £125m is to be shared in bonuses for 4,000 employees with some taking over £1m.

more...


-mojavekid

I've cut way back myself. I had problems with a credit card being stolen too (it happened twice in fact). Now I have another credit card with a low line of credit on it and have had to purchase Identity Theft coverage. I got a "deal" on this - $4.95 a month is the story.

However, the credit card thing is not the reason as the card with the low line of credit seems to have solved this problem. My problem is cash flow. It is too darn easy to spend a lot of money online and I realize it. It becomes almost an addiction after awhile if you aren't careful.

If I had more money to spend, I'd keep buying stuff online. I've cut back by at least 75-80% on all purchases and buy only what is absolutely necessary these days online. :(

I can't afford it is why! The costs of EVERYTHING are going right straight through the roof!

Home builders' confidence falls to 16-year low
Contractors say market probably won't improve until next year
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/home-builders-confidence-falls-16-year/story.aspx?guid=%7B44171FF5%2D1FA7%2D4E66%2D8B0A%2DC8B96EF44F75%7D&dist=MostReadHome