STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday June 28

Source: DU

Thursday June 28, 2007

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 573 LONG DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2365 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2077 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2038
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON June 27, 2007

Dow... 13,427.73 +90.07 (+0.68%)
Nasdaq... 2,605.35 +31.19 (+1.21%)
S&P 500... 1,506.34 +13.45 (+0.90%)
Gold future... 644.80 -0.50 (-0.08%)
30-Year Bond 5.19% -0.03 (-0.61%)
10-Yr Bond... 5.07% -0.03 (-0.61%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact actionpost@legitgov.org

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

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Read more: DU

Statistical Review of World Energy 2007:
A look at British Petroleum’s Annual World Energy Report
Part I – General Overview
BY CHRIS PUPLAVA

Last week British Petroleum (BP) released their annual report on world energy (click for link), and today’s WrapUp will highlight the general trends in energy for oil, natural gas, coal, uranium, as well as regional patterns in consumption, with the emphasis on the U.S., China, India, and the Middle East. An in depth analysis on the surging energy demand from China, with highlights as to what was the likely catalyst that lead to China’s increase in energy demand, as well as a comparison on the diverging importance of China and the U.S. on aggregate world energy demand will be presented in tomorrow’s WrapUp.

Regional Consumption Patterns & 2006 Energy Consumption Growth

For the most part, oil remains the top energy fuel for the various regions of the world, coming in as the number one fuel in four of the six world regions. Oil represents just over 40% of North American primary energy consumption, 44.7% in South and Central America, 50.5% in the Middle East, 40.3% in Africa, and 31.5% in Asia Pacific.

The number one consumed fuel for Europe & Eurasia is natural gas at 34.1%, while coal represents 49.2% of Asia Pacific’s energy demand. Of the six regions, Europe and Eurasia has the most diverse energy demand, with no single fuel accounting for more than 35% of total aggregate energy demand. The Middle East displays the least diverse energy demand profile, with oil representing 50.5% and natural gas representing 47% of total aggregate energy demand.

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In summary, the BP data shows that developing nations are rapidly growing their energy consumption, with the bulk of their energy consumption growth coming in the last ten years through the strong globalization taking place. As developing countries like China and India mobilize their population into manufacturing centers their energy needs have increased dramatically.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

8:30 AM GDP-Final Q1
Briefing Forecast 0.6%
Market Expects 0.8%
Prior 0.6%

8:30 AM Chain Deflator-Final Q1
Briefing Forecast 4.0%
Market Expects 4.0%
Prior 4.0%

8:30 AM Initial Claims 06/23
Briefing Forecast 315K
Market Expects 315K
Prior 324K

10:00 AM Help-Wanted Index May
Briefing Forecast 29
Market Expects 29
Prior 29

2:15 PM FOMC policy statement

01. U.S. 1Q GDP revised up to 0.7% vs. 0.8% expected
8:30 AM ET, Jun 28, 2007 - 2 minutes ago

02. U.S. 1Q before-tax profits revised up to 1.4%
8:30 AM ET, Jun 28, 2007 - 2 minutes ago

03. U.S. 1Q residential investment revised lower to -15.8%
8:30 AM ET, Jun 28, 2007 - 2 minutes ago

04. U.S. 1Q business investment revised down to 2.6%
8:30 AM ET, Jun 28, 2007 - 2 minutes ago

05. U.S. 1Q consumer spending revised lower to 4.2%
8:30 AM ET, Jun 28, 2007 - 2 minutes ago

06. U.S. 4-wk. avg. continuing jobless claims rise to 2.50 mln
8:30 AM ET, Jun 28, 2007 - 2 minutes ago

07. U.S. 1Q GDP revisions due to higher exports
8:30 AM ET, Jun 28, 2007 - 2 minutes ago

08. U.S. continuing jobless claims fall 27,000 to 2.49 mln
8:30 AM ET, Jun 28, 2007 - 2 minutes ago

09. U.S. 1Q final sales revised up to 1.7% vs. 1.6%
8:30 AM ET, Jun 28, 2007 - 2 minutes ago

10. U.S. 1Q core inflation revised up to 2.4% vs. 2.2%
8:30 AM ET, Jun 28, 2007 - 2 minutes ago

11. U.S. 4-wk. avg. initial jobless claims up 1,000 to 316,000
8:30 AM ET, Jun 28, 2007 - 2 minutes ago

12. U.S. 1Q GDP revised up to 0.7% vs. 0.6% previous
8:30 AM ET, Jun 28, 2007 - 2 minutes ago

13. U.S. initial jobless claims drop 13,000 to 313,000
8:30 AM ET, Jun 28, 2007 - 2 minutes ago

Growth, inflation revised higher in 1st quarter
Core consumer prices rose at 2.3% pace in past year
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/growth-inflation-revised-higher-1st/story.aspx?guid=%7BAF34BA5E%2DF1D2%2D48D5%2DA99D%2D2F8D7E2C24E9%7D

02. U.S. May help-wanted index falls to 27 vs. 29
10:00 AM ET, Jun 28, 2007 - 17 minutes ago

03. U.S. May help-wanted index falls to 49-year low
10:00 AM ET, Jun 28, 2007 - 17 minutes ago

01. FOMC vote unanimous to hold rates steady
2:15 PM ET, Jun 28, 2007 - 2 minutes ago

02. Fed sees growth at moderate pace in coming quarters
2:15 PM ET, Jun 28, 2007 - 2 minutes ago

03. Fed says adjustment in housing ongoing
2:15 PM ET, Jun 28, 2007 - 2 minutes ago

04. Fed says growth has been moderate in first half of year
2:15 PM ET, Jun 28, 2007 - 2 minutes ago

05. Fed repeats inflation still predominant policy concern
2:15 PM ET, Jun 28, 2007 - 2 minutes ago

06. Fed says sustained moderation in inflation not yet apparent
2:15 PM ET, Jun 28, 2007 - 2 minutes ago

07. Fed says core inflation has improved modestly
2:15 PM ET, Jun 28, 2007 - 2 minutes ago

08. FOMC holds rates steady at 5.25% as expected
2:15 PM ET, Jun 28, 2007 - 2 minutes ago

VIENNA, Austria - Oil prices rose Thursday following a U.S. government report that showed an unexpected drop in gasoline stocks amid peak summer driving season demand.

While some analysts have said a decision by oil majors Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips to withdraw from Venezuela would not affect prices, other say it may affect production.

Light, sweet crude for August delivery gained 24 cents to $69.21 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midday in Europe. The contract had climbed more than a dollar to end at $68.97 Wednesday.

-cut-

In its weekly inventory report, the U.S. Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said gasoline inventories dropped by 700,000 barrels in the week ended June 22, contrary to the 1.1 million gain that had been expected by analysts polled by Dow Jones Newswires.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

Surprise drop in gasoline supply ahead of summer driving season sends U.S. crude prices above $70 for the first time this year.


http://money.cnn.com/2007/06/28/markets/oil.reut/index.htm?postversion=2007062813

WASHINGTON - The Federal Reserve has gone a year since it last changed interest rates and it could be another year before the Fed moves off the sidelines.

That is the betting of many private economists who think Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues are perfectly content to sit back and watch economic developments unfold according to their script.

Fed officials, wrapping up a two-day meeting on Thursday, were expected to announce that for the eighth consecutive time they will leave the federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25 percent.

-cut-

While Bernanke acknowledged recently that the housing slump is lasting longer than Fed officials had expected, in most other respects the economy is performing exactly according to the Fed's desires.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070628/ap_on_bi_ge/fed_interest_rates

NEW YORK - Stock futures were little changed Thursday ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, and investors were on guard for whatever comments policymakers might make about the economy.

-cut-

The Fed — widely expected to keep the benchmark rate steady at 5.25 percent after its two-day meeting ends — has stated recently the economy is on track to recover from a weak first quarter despite difficulties in the housing market. Investors want to get any clues on the pace of inflation, which central bankers have believe remains a paramount concern.

Investors will also get some more economic data to mull over. The Commerce Department releases its final reading on first-quarter gross domestic product, which the market expects to come in at 0.6 percent, the same as the estimate made in May.

The report comes after the Commerce Department disappointed Wall Street on Wednesday. reporting that orders for durable goods plunged 2.8 percent in May following three months of increases.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070628/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/wall_street

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20070628:MTFH33401_2007-06-28_08-03-59_SHA110966&type=comktNews&rpc=44

SHANGHAI, June 28 (Reuters) - Chinese stocks tumbled 4.03 percent on Thursday out of concern that large sales of government bonds later this year could suck funds from the market, and on fears the central bank might soon hike interest rates.

The Shanghai Composite Index <.SSEC>, which was flat at midday, suffered its biggest percentage fall in three weeks to close at 3,914.204 points, just marginally off the day's low of 3,912.814.

Losing Shanghai stocks overwhelmed gainers by 773 to 74. Turnover in Shanghai A shares was modest at 126.4 billion yuan ($16.6 billion), little changed from Wednesday, suggesting many investors were staying away from the market.

The government said on Wednesday that it planned to issue about $200 billion worth of yuan bonds to finance purchases of foreign exchange from the central bank for a new overseas investment agency.

Depending on how the bond sales are conducted, they could soak up money that would otherwise have gone into stocks.

/...

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20070628:MTFH34091_2007-06-28_08-33-33_HKG271228&type=comktNews&rpc=44

HONG KONG, June 28 (Reuters) - Hong Kong stocks snapped a three-day losing streak to end 1.1 percent higher on Thursday, tracking a rebound in U.S. equities and helped by an easing yen, with mainland oil producers leading a recovery in Chinese large-caps.

Qingling Motors (1122.HK: Quote, Profile , Research) was a standout, rallying as much as 19 percent following a state media report that the automaker may list in mainland China's stock market following an asset injection from shareholders. (For details, click on ).

The benchmark Hang Seng Index <.HSI> closed up 232.66 points at 21,938.22 on mainboard turnover of HK$80.5 billion (US$10.3 billion) compared with Wednesday's HK$78.8 billion.

The China Enterprises index of H shares <.HSCE>, or Hong Kong-listed shares in mainland companies, gained 1.1 percent, or 135.47 points to 12,050.00.

Risk appetite resurfaced, as the yen broke a three-day rally with easing concerns about the fallout from U.S. subprime mortgage sector problems supporting a rebound on Wall Street, prompting investors to sell the yen again in carry trades.

But as June closes out, some were worried the market could pull back next month.

/...

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/070628/ap/d8q1nb000.html

Japanese stocks rebounded after a four-day slide Thursday, helped by Wall Street's rally overnight. Exporters like Toyota, retailers and rubber product makers led the advance.

The Nikkei 225 index rose 82.99 points, or 0.47 percent, on the Tokyo Stock Exchange to 17,932.27 points. The gain came after the index has fallen 2.1 percent over the previous four trading sessions, including Wednesday's decline of 1.20 percent.

A recovery in U.S. stocks on Wednesday buoyed sentiment in the Tokyo market. But expectations are growing that Japanese shares will also regain an upward momentum once closely monitored economic data come out and deliveries for the second half of the calendar year starts, traders said.

"The market is gearing up for another testing of the high some time next month," said Chuo Securities' head of stock trading Mamoru Maeda, a reference to a seven-year high touched last week.

/...

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/070628/kyodo/d8q1o2p80.html

(Kyodo) _ Motor vehicle exports from Japan rose 5.1 percent year on year in May to 482,793 units, registering an increase for the 22nd consecutive month, due to strong shipments particularly to Europe and the Middle East, an industry group said Thursday.

However, shipments to the United States fell 7.1 percent to 164,217 vehicles, declining for the second consecutive month, according to the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association.

"The fall in U.S.-bound exports occurred in reaction to a 42.5 percent jump posted the same month a year earlier," said an official of the association.

Vehicle production in Japan rose 6.3 percent in May on the year to 865,734 vehicles, for the first increase in three months, on strong exports.

/..

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?type=comktNews&storyID=2007-06-28T112708Z_01_L28838469_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-EUROPE-STOCKS-UPDATE-2.XML

PARIS, June 28 (Reuters) - European shares advanced on Thursday, as buoyant shares of oil and gas firms helped the market snap a five-session losing streak, while investors braced for the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate decision and statement.

Among Europe's top gainers, Deutsche Postbank (DPBGn.DE: Quote, Profile , Research) surged 4 percent after a top Commerzbank (CBKG.DE: Quote, Profile , Research) executive said in a television interview his bank may be interested in Postbank. Deutsche Post (DPWGn.DE: Quote, Profile , Research), which owns a majority stake in Deutsche Postbank, said it had no intention to sell.

At 11:03 GMT the FTSEurofirst 300 index <.FTEU3> of top European shares was up 0.84 percent at 1,592.83 points.

The benchmark index is still down about 1.7 percent since reaching near seven-year highs on June 18 as investors are worry about the outlook for inflation and the prospect of rising interest rates.

"Inflation fears have resurfaced over the past couple of weeks, just like they do every six months, but the risks are not so big, especially with the ongoing weakness in the U.S. real estate sector ... so we may soon be anticipating a fall in long term rates," said Jean-Luc Buchalet, strategist at Factset in Paris.

"The rally we got during the first part of the year will continue, although with some hiccups. Despite the recent rise in short-term rates, liquidity is still abundant, and the global growth is still strong," he said.

...

Around Europe, London's FTSE 100 index .FTSE rose 0.6 percent, while Frankfurt's DAX <.GDAXI> gained 1.1 percent and Paris's CAC 40 <.FCHI> rose 0.8 percent.

/...

http://mwprices.ft.com/custom/ft2-com/html-story.asp?pulse=true&siteid=ft&dist=ft&guid=%7Bad63c41d%2D4db2%2D43a8%2D9af1%2Dca1102dce6c9%7D

European equities rallied strongly on Thursday as investors sought bargains after five sessions of losses, while takeover speculation also buoyed the markets. Deutsche Postbank, Germany’s biggest retail bank, gained 4 per cent to €64.01 after one of the top executives at Commerzbank said the investment bank would be interested in a making a bid. Wolfgang Hartmann, executive board member, said in an interview on Bloomberg TV said that if Deutsche Post, the majority owner of Postbank, was ready to sell, Commerzbank would ”immediately snap it up”. Shares in Commerzbank were up 1.5 per cent to €34.99. Deutsche Post, which responded by saying it had no plans to sell its stake, rose 0.7 per cent to €23.63. French information technology consultancy Capgemini rose 4.6 per cent to €53.78 on rumours that Infosys, its Indian rival, was considering making an offer. Traders said that Infosys could be targeting the French company because of its large outsourcing operations in India and to give itself a foothold in European markets. By the close of trade in London the FTSE Eurofirst 300 was up 0.9 per cent to 1,593.67, Frankfurt’s Xetra Dax added 1.5 per cent to 7,921.36, the CAC 40 in Paris climbed 1.1 per cent to 6,006.31 and London’s FTSE 100 gained 0.7 per cent to 6,571.3.

http://mwprices.ft.com/custom/ft2-com/html-story.asp?pulse=true&siteid=ft&dist=ft&guid=%7B7a5cc30d%2Db0c5%2D4f33%2D9e67%2D1f02b4187647%7D

London shares ended the session higher on Thursday as commodities provided a boost to the market and investors were cheered by expectations that the Federal Reserve would keep US interest rates on hold. Mining stocks rallied as copper prices rose and oil heavyweights jumped on the back of higher crude prices. BHP Billiton firmed 3.1 and Rio Tinto 1378p while amongst oil majors, Royal Dutch Shell climbed 2.6 per cent to 2053p and BG Group put on 2.7 per cent to close at 812.5p. The FTSE 100 finished trading at 6,571.3, an increase of 0.7 per cent or 44 points. The mid-cap FTSE 250 rose 127 points, or 1.1 per cent, to 11,519.2.

NEW YORK - Adelphia Communications founder John Rigas and his son Timothy have long fought one of the nation's largest corporate fraud cases, managing to stay out of prison for three years after they were convicted.

But as they face a court order to report to prison Aug. 13, the Rigases are almost out of options. They have asked an appeals court to reconsider the case and plan to ask the Supreme Court to intervene, but such requests are rarely granted.

U.S. District Judge Leonard Sand has given the men, once among the country's richest, a little less than seven weeks to put their affairs in order. He rescinded an order that had allowed them to remain free on bail while their appeal worked its way through the courts.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070628/ap_on_bi_ge/adelphia_fraud

WESTLAKE VILLAGE, Calif. (AP) - Guitar Center Inc., the largest U.S. musical instrument retailer, said Wednesday its board had accepted a $1.9 billion cash buyout offer from a private equity firm.

The deal with affiliates of Bain Capital Partners LLC came amid speculation that a buyout was in the works. Guitar Center had hired investment bank Goldman Sachs & Co. to auction the company.

Bain Capital offered to pay $63 per share, which represents a premium of 26 percent over Guitar Center's closing price Tuesday of $50.06. The purchase price is based on the company's 30.2 million shares outstanding at the end of March.

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The company, which now has more than 210 stores, went public in 1997. The stock has more than tripled since its initial share sale, and revenue last year was $2.03 billion, compared with $296.7 million in 1997.

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=AP&Date=20070628&ID=7091880

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 82.190 Change -0.113 (-0.14%)

Federal Reserve Meeting: What to Expect for the US Dollar

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/Federal_Reserve_Meeting__What_to_1182950748491.html

Federal Reserve interest rate announcements have traditionally been big market movers for the US dollar. However in recent months, the market moving-ness of this event risk has been downgraded significantly since the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy has become as predictable as the passage of time.

This Thursday, the Federal Reserve is fully expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 5.25 percent, which would mark a full year since they last raised interest rates. The economic outlook is cloudier this month than last, which means that we could also see a larger currency market reaction. Of course that movement will not be triggered by the rate decision but instead by the accompanying FOMC statement. The key phrases to watch are the ones in reference to the housing market and inflation. A bigger focus on housing market problems will most likely lead to more pronounced dollar weakness against the Euro than the Japanese Yen because the market anticipates another interest rate hike from the European Central Bank this year while shorting USD/JPY would require paying a hefty interest. By the same token, if the tone of the statement remains unchanged, expect USD/JPY to benefit more than the Euro.

For those who want to lay on currency trades going into the meeting, it is important to examine how the economic landscape or data has changed since the last monetary policy meeting in May:

US Economic Data: How Have Things Changed Since the Last Meeting?



...more...

Dollar Strengthens Ahead of FOMC as Weaker Growth Takes Backseat to Stronger Inflation Pressures

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Dollar_Strengthens_Ahead_of_FOMC_1182980355532.html

The US dollar has strengthened ahead of the FOMC meeting despite the larger than expected drop in durable goods orders in the month of May. The US economy is clearly facing problems as the weakness in durable goods follow disappointments in both existing and new home sales. However, the problems in the economy will take a back seat to inflation risks at tomorrow’s FOMC announcement. Consumer and producer prices were both up in the month of May and based upon the recent increase in corn and dairy prices as well as the mild change in the US stock market, the Federal Reserve is not likely to loosen their leash on inflation. Oil prices also jumped over 1 percent today after reports of lower US fuel supplies. Crude prices are now $1 shy of its 9 month high. At this point, the Federal Reserve does not have much choice other than to keep the tone of the statement unchanged in order to tame the stock market bubble. The key phrases to watch are the ones in reference to the housing market and inflation. A bigger focus on housing market problems will most likely lead to more pronounced dollar weakness against the Euro than the Japanese Yen because the market anticipates another interest rate hike from the European Central Bank this year while shorting USD/JPY would require paying a hefty interest. By the same token, if the tone of the statement remains unchanged, expect USD/JPY to benefit more than the Euro. For a more detailed outlook on what the Federal Reserve meeting could mean for the US dollar, see our special FOMC Report.

...more...

MATTHEWS, N.C. (AP) - Discount-store operator Family Dollar Stores Inc. on Thursday said it expects bigger markdowns in the fourth-quarter along with low single-digit same-store sales growth.

Family Dollar said it would offset this by higher sales of prepaid services, better purchase markups, lower freight expense and reduced shrinkage, or theft, expense.

Family Dollar expects earnings for the 4th-quarter, which ends Sept. 1, between 26 cents and 29 cents per share. Analysts expect earnings of 28 cents per share.

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?Feed=AP&Date=20070628&ID=7100354

America's Car-Mart Inc., operator of 92 dealerships in nine states, said Thursday its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings plunged 55 percent as the company sold 17 percent fewer vehicles.

Net income in the three months ended April 30 dropped to $2.1 million, or 17 cents per share, from $4.6 million, or 38 cents per share, in the year-ago period. The company said results in the latest quarter were helped by an effective tax rate of just 8.3 percent.

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?Feed=AP&Date=20070628&ID=7100351

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.5. As expected, Q1 GDP was revised slightly higher, but barely. The final read checked in at 0.7% (consensus 0.8%), up from a preliminary read of 0.6%. The chain deflator, a key inflation measure, unexpectedly rose to 4.2% (consensus 4.0%) from 4.0%. Initial claims fell 13K to 313K (consensus 315K).

The response in stocks so far has been relatively muted given the Q1 GDP report's predictability; however, futures were trending higher ahead of the data as investors revisit the idea that policy makers will exclude the word "elevated," as it relates to inflation, in today's closely-watched Fed statement. Bonds have also barely budged on the news; the 10-year note remains unchanged yielding 5.08%.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.3. So much for yesterday's afternoon rally carrying over into this morning's open as futures indications currently point to a slightly lower start for stocks. That's not all that surprising, though, given the cautionary tone that typically precedes the culmination of an FOMC meeting and the Fed's closely-watched policy directive (2:15 ET).

Investors are also weighing Q2 warnings from Novellus Systems (NVLS) and LSI Logic (LSI), plus cautious-sounding guidance from Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY), against analyst upgrades on bellwethers like Intel (INTC), Cisco Systems (CSCO), and Starbucks (SBUX).

http://dailyreckoning.com/Writers/Mogambo/DREssays/MG062707.html

I don't know why I am so edgy here lately. Maybe because Federal Reserve Credit last week only increased a little, going up $2.3 billion to $852.3 billion, which is about the same level of Total Credit as it was in January, six months ago.

Or maybe it is because Anthony M. Cherniawski of thepracticalinvestor.com writes that, suddenly, three Hindenburg Omens have been sighted.

So what is a Hindenburg Omen? Robert McHugh of Main Line Investors, accurately assessing my limited intellectual abilities, explains just the essence of it, which is "the alignment of several technical factors that measure the underlying condition of the stock market - specifically the NYSE - such that the probability that a stock market crash occurs is higher than normal, and the probability of a severe decline is quite high."

Mr. Cherniawski says that according to the facts at Wikipedia.com, this "now confirms the probability of a major decline in the next 120 days. The probability of a move greater than 5% to the downside after a confirmed Hindenburg Omen within the next 41 days after its occurrence is 77%, the probability of a panic sellout is 41%, and the probability of a real big stock market crash is 25%."

He admits that the 77%, 41% and 25% statistics are a long way from any precision as far as forecasting goes, and, "The occurrence of a confirmed Hindenburg Omen does not necessarily mean that the stock market will go down. On the other hand, there has never been a significant stock market decline in history that was not preceded by a confirmed Hindenburg Omen."

And on the third hand, a 77% probability ain't hay, either!

/...

http://www.dailyreckoning.com/Writers/Mogambo/DREssays/MG062707.html

I don't know why I am so edgy here lately. Maybe because Federal Reserve Credit last week only increased a little, going up $2.3 billion to $852.3 billion, which is about the same level of Total Credit as it was in January, six months ago.

Or maybe it is because Anthony M. Cherniawski of thepracticalinvestor.com writes that, suddenly, three Hindenburg Omens have been sighted.

So what is a Hindenburg Omen? Robert McHugh of Main Line Investors, accurately assessing my limited intellectual abilities, explains just the essence of it, which is "the alignment of several technical factors that measure the underlying condition of the stock market - specifically the NYSE - such that the probability that a stock market crash occurs is higher than normal, and the probability of a severe decline is quite high."

Mr. Cherniawski says that according to the facts at Wikipedia.com, this "now confirms the probability of a major decline in the next 120 days. The probability of a move greater than 5% to the downside after a confirmed Hindenburg Omen within the next 41 days after its occurrence is 77%, the probability of a panic sellout is 41%, and the probability of a real big stock market crash is 25%."

He admits that the 77%, 41% and 25% statistics are a long way from any precision as far as forecasting goes, and, "The occurrence of a confirmed Hindenburg Omen does not necessarily mean that the stock market will go down. On the other hand, there has never been a significant stock market decline in history that was not preceded by a confirmed Hindenburg Omen."

And on the third hand, a 77% probability ain't hay, either!



Plenty more....also with a link to an excellent essay by Dmitry Orlov

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/6766563.stm

Millions of Indian coins are being smuggled into neighbouring Bangladesh and turned into razor blades. And that's creating an acute shortage of coins in many parts of India, officials say.

snip...

"Our one rupee coin is in fact worth 35 rupees, because we make five to seven blades out of them," the grocer allegedly told the police. "Bangladeshi smugglers take delivery of the blades at regular intervals."

snip...

To deal with the coin shortage, some tea gardens in the north-eastern state of Assam have resorted to issuing cardboard coin-slips to their workers.

The denomination is marked on these slips and they are used for buying and selling within the gardens.

The cardboard coins are the same size as the real ones and their value is marked on them.

more...

http://www.mineweb.net/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page34?oid=22593&sn=Detail

The Shanghai Gold Exchange is launching individual gold bullion trading next month through a partnership with China's Industrial Bank.

The Shanghai Daily reported Tuesday that the gold bourse has scheduled a joint briefing in early July with Industrial Bank about the service.

The exchange will also subsequently launch trading through Huaxia Bank. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China is likely to be the third entity to join the bullion trading scheme.

China's central bank, the People's Bank of China, gave approval for the gold bourse to start nationwide gold trading services at the end of 2006, the Shanghai Gold Exchange said Monday.

Under the new trading scheme, individual investors will be able to trade in gold from a minimum threshold of 100 grams, which would cost roughly 16,000 yuan (US$2,099). Investors can take home the bullion at lower prices than those of jewelers and coin makers. For example, investment-grade bullion fetches more than a 10% premium in the market.

a little more...

http://www.dailyreckoning.co.uk/article/worldwidefinancialbubblenewphasetounfold0299.html

Youll remember we said that this worldwide financial bubble is both more worldly and more financial than any in history. And, for the moment, it is very much alive. Meanwhile, the experts, commentarists, kibitzers and analysts are saying that there is a whole new phase of the giant bubble about to unfold; things could get a whole lot crazier. Even many of our respected colleagues are pointing to a text by the great Austrian economist, Ludwig von Mises, for a clue. What we have here, they say, is what Mises described as a Crack-Up Boom....

When a kiss is over, it’s over. When a bubble
pops...well…that’s all she wrote!
All kisses end, even the wettest “French” kisses. So do
all bubbles. Even sloppy mega-bubbles of liquidity.
This one will be no exception. But of course, it’s not
the certainties that make life interesting…but the
uncertainties -- the known unknowns and the unknown
unknowns, as Mr. Rumsfeld says. We are all are born of
woman and end up where all men born of women end up –
dead. But that doesn’t mean we can’t have some fun
between baptism and last rites.

You’ll remember we said that this worldwide financial
bubble is both more worldly and more financial than any
in history.

And, for the moment, it is very much alive. So much
alive that the media can hardly keep up with it. Forbes
magazine, for example, tries to estimate the wealth of
the world’s richest people. But the rich don’t typically
give out their balance sheets, telephone numbers and
home addresses. So, there’s a fair amount of guesswork
in the calculations.

more...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/06/26/cnusecon126.xml

The United States faces a severe credit crunch as mounting losses on risky forms of debt catch up with the banks and force them to curb lending and call in existing loans, according to a report by Lombard Street Research.

The group said the fast-moving crisis at two Bear Stearns hedge funds had exposed the underlying rot in the US sub-prime mortgage market, and the vast nexus of collateralised debt obligations known as CDOs.

"Excess liquidity in the global system will be slashed," it said. "Banks' capital is about to be decimated, which will require calling in a swathe of loans. This is going to aggravate the US hard landing."

Charles Dumas, the group's global strategist, said the failed auction of assets seized from one of the Bear Stearns funds by Merrill Lynch had revealed the dark secret of the CDO debt market. The sale had to be called off after buyers took just $200m of the $850m mix.

more...

Dow 13,483.33 55.60 (0.41%)
Nasdaq 2,622.68 17.33 (0.67%)
S&P 500 1,511.32 4.98 (0.33%)
10-Yr Bond 5.091% 0.021

NYSE Volume 1,801,504,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,202,884,000

12:00 pm : Per usual on a Fed day, uncertainty heading into the culmination of a two-day FOMC meeting is underpinning a cautious tone to this morning's action.

Even though it is a foregone conclusion that policy makers at 2:15 ET this afternoon will leave the overnight lending rate unchanged at 5.25% for an eighth straight meeting, investors remain anxious to see if the policy directive's wording will be altered since core inflation has deflated faster than the Fed anticipated.

Oil prices surging 2.0% and eclipsing the psychologically significant $70/bbl mark for the first time since September is also acting as a headwind for buyers.

The major averages are mixed midday and continue to hover around the unchanged mark with no real standouts from a sector leadership perspective. Materials is turning in the best performance; but a modest 0.5% advance in the sector with the smallest weighting on the S&P 500 is no match for a 0.4% decline in the most heavily weighted sector of them all, Financials.

For a second straight session, Technology is in focus and, as reflected in the Nasdaq again outperforming its blue-chip counterparts, its decent 0.2% gain is lending some reassurance about the sustainability of yesterday's much larger (+1.2%) tech advance. Analyst upgrades on bellwethers Intel (INTC 23.98 +0.19) and Cisco Systems (CSCO 28.05 +0.78), which are also recommended holdings in the Briefing.com Active Portfolio, are helping to counter Q2 warnings from Novellus Systems (NVLS 28.79 -1.11) and LSI Logic (LSI 8.02 -0.62).

Separately, the final read on Q1 GDP checked in at 0.7% (consensus 0.8%) while initial claims fell 13K to 313K (consensus 315K). However, since both reports were very close to expectations and won't change economic forecasts, neither has garnered much attention as investors remain focused on the 2:15 ET release of the Fed policy statement. DJ30 -8.95 DJUA +1.0% NASDAQ +5.50 NQ100 +0.3% R2K +0.2% SOX -0.6% SP400 +0.5% SP500 +0.56 XOI +1.3% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1380/1483/722 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1150/1965/496 mln

11:30 am : More of the same for stocks as the major averages continue to fluctuate around the flat line looking fatigued. Sure, consternation ahead of the Fed's decision is forcing investors to keep their cards close to their vest. However, it is also worth noting that stocks would likely being sluggish anyway given the temptation to consolidate some of yesterday's impressive tech rally, especially after Novellus Systems (NVLS 28.72 -1.17) and LSI Logic (LSI 8.04 -0.60) warned.

Offsetting their respective declines of 4% and 7% has been a 2.6% surge in shares of Cisco Systems (CSCO 27.97 +0.70). Cisco's market value of $170 bln dwarfs the combined market cap of less than $10 bln for NVLS and LSI.DJ30 -4.47 NASDAQ +4.72 SOX -0.6% SP500 -0.03 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1367/1433/612 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1201/1877/416 mln

11:00 am : Energy Stocks continue to trade with little fanfare as split sector leadership dictates this morning's action. As evidenced by the Nasdaq holding steady in positive territory, it's not surprising to see some follow-through in Technology contributing to its positive disposition. Unfortunately for the bulls, the sector is only up 0.2%.

What is surprising has been the Energy sector's (-0.2%) inability to take advantage of oil prices hitting their highest levels in nine months. As oil was hitting fresh session highs over the last 30 minutes, a sell-the-news reaction in Energy subsequently pushed it into the red. Energy still stands as this year's best performing sector, with nearly 14% of its 16% year-to-date advance coming in the second quarter. DJ30 -14.47 NASDAQ +5.89 SP500 -0.61 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1256/1480/494 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1104/1929/330 mln

The writers at The Wall Street Journal really don’t want to see Dow Jones (DJ) get taken over by Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp. (NWS)

With reports suggesting that a News Corp. deal to acquire the company could be sealed within a matter of weeks, provided the controlling Bancroft family agrees, the union that represents workers at Dow Jones staged a sickout Thursday morning.
The union issued the following statement:

Wall Street Journal reporters across the country chose not to show up to work this morning. We did so for two reasons.

First, The Wall Street Journal’s long tradition of independence, which has been the hallmark of our news coverage for decades, is threatened today. We, along with hundreds of other Dow Jones employees represented by the Independent Association of Publishers’ Employees, want to demonstrate our conviction that the Journal’s editorial integrity depends on an owner committed to journalistic independence.

Second, by our absence from newsrooms around the country, we are reminding Dow Jones management that the quality of its publications depends on a top-quality professional staff. Dow Jones currently is in contract negotiations with its primary union, seeking severe cutbacks in our health benefits and limits on our pay. It is beyond debate that the professionals who create The Wall Street Journal and other Dow Jones publications every day deserve a fair contract that rewards their achievements. At a time when Dow Jones is finding the resources to award golden parachutes to 135 top executives, it should not be seeking to eviscerate employees’ health benefits and impose salary adjustments that amount to a pay cut.

We put the reputation of The Wall Street Journal and the needs of its readers first. That’s why we will be back at our desks this afternoon, producing the day’s news reports. But we hope this demonstration will remind those entrusted with the future of Dow Jones that our publications’ integrity must be protected, and sustained, from top to bottom.


full article...
http://mediabiz.blogs.cnnmoney.com/2007/06/28/wsj-reporters-get-a-case-of-blue-flu/

Tainted toothpaste that entered the United States from China last month was distributed more widely than the discount stores that carried them, a newspaper reported Thursday.

About 900,000 poisonous tubes have been found in hospitals for the mentally ill, prisons, juvenile detention centers, and some hospitals serving the general public, the New York Times reported.

Most of the tainted toothpaste was handed out in dozens of state institutions in Georgia and North Carolina, where state officials said the products were being replaced with brands made outside of China, the paper said. Hospitals in South Carolina and Florida also reported receiving toothpaste from China, according to the report.

The poisonous chemical found in the toothpaste, diethylene glycol, is used in some antifreeze products and often replaces its more expensive chemical cousin glycerin in Chinese toothpaste, the paper said.

full article...
http://money.cnn.com/2007/06/28/news/international/toothpaste_china/index.htm?postversion=2007062812

Dow 13,422.28 down 5.45 (0.04%)
Nasdaq 2,608.37 up 3.02 (0.12%)
S&P 500 1,505.71 down 0.63 (0.04%)
10-Yr Bond 5.118% down 0.048

NYSE Volume 2,954,667,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,993,056,000

4:20 pm : Nearly one year ago to the day after the Fed snapped its streak of 17 straight rate hikes by leaving its benchmark rate unchanged, policy makers were unmoved yet again at their latest gathering Thursday. When a volatile afternoon session finally came to a close, stocks too were left relatively unchanged.

Per usual, when Fed officials meet to discuss monetary policy, neither buyers nor sellers were initially willing to make any concerted bets until they had a chance to sift through the closely-watched FOMC statement. As expected, policy makers left rates unchanged at 5.25% for an eighth straight time. The accompanying policy directive, though, did undergo some changes -- edits that were over-analyzed throughout the remainder of the day.

With core inflation deflating faster than the Fed has anticipated, the word "elevated" was removed. That gave market bulls a little something to hang their hat on. However, the directive went on to say that "sustained moderation in inflation pressures has yet to be convincingly demonstrated. The directive also reiterated that "the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain those pressures" and that inflation remains a predominent risk, hardly suggesting the Fed's tightening bias is any softer than it was at the last meeting.

Thus, nothing in the statement to suggest the FOMC is inclined to move the fed funds rate anytime soon, either up or down, was eventually interpreted as fairly neutral and ultimately gave investors little guiding influence about the short-term direction for equities.

Split industry leadership further underscored the market's lack of direction. Of the five sectors trading higher, Telecom turned in the best performance. A 0.9% advance in one of the least influential S&P sectors, though, was also accompanied by an average gain of less than 0.1% for the remaining four sectors barely finishing in positive territory.

More troubling was the fact that Energy not only paced the way lower but did so despite oil prices closing near nine-month highs. Crude for August delivery was up as much as 2.2% intraday and eclipsed the psychologically significant $70/bbl level for the first time since September. With nearly 14% of the Energy sector's 16% year-to-date advance coming in the second quarter, however, investors opted instead to take lock in some of those gains with Q1 coming to a close tomorrow. BTK 0.2% DJ30 -5.45 DOT +0.4% NASDAQ +3.02 NQ100 -0.1% R2K +0.1% SOX -0.9% SP400 +0.1% SP500 -0.63 XOI +0.5% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1452/1539/1.95 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1345/1933/1.37 bln

3:30 pm : Stocks are maintaining modest gains going into the close as participants continue to view the absence of any negative surprises in today's Fed statement as welcome news. The Nasdaq continues to pace the way among the majors, but not by all that much, while leadership on the Dow remains evenly matched.

With regard to the S&P 500, all 10 of its sectors are still trading higher, but the Energy sector now vacillating near the unchanged mark is noteworthy since oil prices closed near nine-month highs. DJ30 +36.02 NASDAQ +11.37 SP500 +4.80 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1349/1632/1.60 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1196/2059/1.14 bln

3:00 pm : While it appears as though equities haven't done much since the last update, when simply looking at the levels, volatility remains prevalent. So much so that the Dow and S&P 500 have both made brief visits into negative territory as investors continue to weigh the ramifications of another neutral statement that offers little guiding influence over the short-term direction of the stock market.

It is worth noting that further deterioration in Treasuries, with yields across the curve poised to close near session highs, may be the deciding factor when it's all said and done for equities. Nothing in today's directive to suggest the Fed is inclined to move the fed funds rate anytime soon in either direction as put bond traders back on the defensive. The yield on the 10-year note at 5.11% is well off a recent high of 5.32%; but expectations the benchmark yield will remain over 5.00% recently prompted Briefing.com to lower its Market View to Neutral. DJ30 +36.74 NASDAQ +12.02 SP500 +4.62 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1302/1681/1.44 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1180/2069/1.01 bln

2:30 pm : After further analysis of a Fed directive that cited improvements in inflation and that the economy continues to weather weakness in housing, stocks have spiked to new intraday highs. However, the language still suggesting the Fed is not yet satisfied also leaves buyers less convinced about what today's statement implies about the interest rate outlook.

The actual text of the statement reads: "Economic growth appears to have been moderate during the first half of this year, despite the ongoing adjustment in the housing sector. The economy seems likely to continue to expand at a moderate pace over coming quarters.

Readings on core inflation have improved modestly in recent months. However, a sustained moderation in inflation pressures has yet to be convincingly demonstrated. Moreover, the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain those pressures.

In these circumstances, the Committee's predominant policy concern remains the risk that inflation will fail to moderate as expected. Future policy adjustments will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information." DJ30 +46.36 NASDAQ +17.45 SP500 +6.93 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1271/1689/1.19 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1011/2227/842 mln