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Penndems Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-20-07 09:30 PM
Original message
Texas-sized Hurricane Dean spins toward Yucatan
Source: CNN

CANCUN, Mexico (CNN) -- Hurricane Dean burgeoned into a Category 5 storm -- capable of inflicting catastrophic damage when it makes landfall early Tuesday.

As of 7:30 p.m. (8:30 p.m. ET), Dean's maximum sustained winds reached 160 mph, moving it from a Category 4 to a Category 5 hurricane, the National Hurricane Center said.

A Category 5 storm is the most extreme level on the Saffir-Simpson scale, the standard measurement for hurricanes. Such hurricanes can have a storm surge of more than 18 feet and are powerful enough to take off roofs, uproot trees and wipe out buildings.

Dean is expected to pour 5 to 10 inches of rain on the Yucatan, Belize, Guatemala and Honduras. Some areas could see up to 20 inches -- enough to "cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides," the hurricane center said.

***************************************************************************************


Read more: http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/americas/08/20/hurricane.dean/index.html



Dean has been classified as a CAT 5 hurricane. Looks as if there's another Katrina heading into the Gulf of Mexico. :scared:
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Jacobin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-20-07 09:34 PM
Response to Original message
1. Fortunately, it won't hit a city below sea level with substandard levees
So it won't have Katrina effects.

But it is a monster and its going to cause a lot of damage
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Penndems Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-20-07 09:38 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. The National Weather Service is issuing another bulletin at 11:00 p.m. Eastern Time
Link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Yes, Jacobin, you are absolutely right: This is (yet) another monster.

I read in the Washington Post that the local authorities on the Yucatan Pennisula are trying to get the Mayan people out of their huts and houses, but are having little success. We need to keep these folks in our thoughts and prayers.


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RL3AO Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-20-07 10:16 PM
Response to Reply #1
9. Nope. It will just hit an area with a lot of people that live in huts.
Thank god.
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slackmaster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 08:28 AM
Response to Reply #9
22. People who happen to have recent memory of what a strong hurricane can do
I hope they take care of themselves.
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mdelaguna2000 Donating Member (300 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 03:12 PM
Response to Reply #9
24. Thank you.
My thoughts exactly. The drinking water and transport issues (including food), not to mention subsistence farm plots destroyed, have severe impacts on these peoples which rarely get publicized up here. Major hunger, health issues. The flooding is horrible - this area only inches above sea level - and it lasts for a month or two.
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idgiehkt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-20-07 09:38 PM
Response to Original message
3. I heard they are concerned about some of the ruins there
I wonder if a storm of this magnitude has hit there in recent memory?
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Penndems Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-20-07 09:44 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. Here is the Washington Post's excellent coverage:

Yucatan Villagers Implored to Flee Homes

By Adriana Varillas and Manuel Roig-Franzia
Washington Post Foreign Service
Tuesday, August 21, 2007; Page A10

FELIPE CARRILLO PUERTO, Mexico, Aug. 20 -- Hurricane Dean drew strength from warm Caribbean waters Monday and roared toward Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, where soldiers begged campesinos to abandon thatch-roofed shacks and take refuge in shelters.

After battering the Cayman Islands with heavy rain and wind, Dean, which reached Category 5 strength Monday evening, is expected to smash into the Yucatan with 160 mph winds and even stronger gusts before dawn Tuesday. Torrential rains and storm surges up to 18 feet are forecast.

"It's as bad as it gets," meteorologist Dennis Feltgen said in a telephone interview from the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

The storm, which is blamed for eight deaths over the weekend on Caribbean islands, appeared to be veering away from the luxury resorts of Cancun and toward lightly populated areas at the southern end of the peninsula seldom visited by tourists. The region is known for its natural splendor, highlighted by the Sian Kaan Biosphere Reserve, and is rich with natural buffers, such as swamps, that can help deaden the impact of hurricanes.


Link:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/08/20/AR2007082000579.html?hpid=topnews


**********************************************************************************

I also heard about the concerns voiced regarding the ancient Mayan antiquities. Let's hope that both they and the population are spared this horrible event. :(

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idgiehkt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-20-07 09:48 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. thanks so much for the link
strange how interest falls off when it's announced it isn't hitting the U.S. :shrug:
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Penndems Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-20-07 09:54 PM
Response to Reply #5
6. So true
Texans should continue to monitor "Mean Dean", though. It's expected to make its second landfall in central Mexico, but as big as this thing is, there's gonna be high winds and coastal flooding in The Lone Star State.
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BleedingHeartPatriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-20-07 10:07 PM
Response to Reply #4
7. It's encouraging that there is wetland protection, so to speak, something long gone for NOLA.
Edited on Mon Aug-20-07 10:09 PM by BleedingHeartPatriot
What's the equation? Something like every 10 miles of wetland reduces the storm surge by a foot? MKJ


edited to add the word "surge", maybe I have a subconscious aversion. MKJ
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Penndems Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-20-07 10:11 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. That equation sounds about right to me.
n/t
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fed-up Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-20-07 10:37 PM
Response to Original message
10. for those that know Belize-someone in San Pedro just reported that band is just starting to hit
Edited on Mon Aug-20-07 10:43 PM by fed-up
I have a sis inland near the Guatamalan border, and they just expect a lot of rain and wind.

I did watch a little msm news today and they mostly reported on Cancun, barely mentioning Belize...

It will be a long night, but hopefully those that were trying to get inland made it to safety. The airport in Belize was closed earlier today and will be closed tomorrow. Evacuations were halted up this afternoon.

There are conflicting reports on whether the storm is wobbling a little to the north or not.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200704.html#a_topad

radio... here's the English station:

http://www.lovefm.com/


Belize news doesn't get updated online until after 9pm US time, but at least there is some info here

http://www.channel5belize.com/

http://www.7newsbelize.com/


and the hurricane thread from the message board from Ambergris Caye (Belize)

http://ambergriscaye.com/forum/ubbthreads.php/ubb/postlist/Board/2/page/1
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Up2Late Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 02:22 AM
Response to Reply #10
19. Here's a link to the Belize National Meteorological Service (NMS)
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Scurrilous Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 12:04 AM
Response to Original message
11. Hurricane Dean is seen from the international space station on Saturday.
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jus_the_facts Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 01:02 AM
Response to Original message
12. here's a wicked scary satellite photo....


:scared:
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RL3AO Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 01:15 AM
Response to Original message
13. Dean is now the tenth most intense hurricane ever recored in the Atlantic.
At 911mb. That is likely to go lower by the time the hurricane hunters finish up.
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RL3AO Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 01:29 AM
Response to Reply #13
14. Passes Ivan....now ninth most intense Atlantic storm ever.
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onewholaughsatfools Donating Member (301 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 01:34 AM
Response to Original message
15. we can only hope that after it crosses the yucatan, that it shift east and hits texas
Mexico will have enough to deal with.....Texas has Homeland security to help.....God bless us all........
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RL3AO Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 01:49 AM
Response to Reply #15
16. Then it will just go over more of Mexico. It would be better for it to just get into the Pacific.
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slackmaster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 08:41 AM
Response to Reply #16
23. It won't have any rotation left by then
Edited on Tue Aug-21-07 08:43 AM by slackmaster
But all that moisture has to go somewhere. It's going to be interesting.

This just in...

...IT APPEARS WE WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THEN X-HURRICANE DEAN. BY FRI A
SUBTROPICAL UPPER LOW OVER BAJA FORMS FROM THE REMNANTS. THIS UPPER
LOW OR INVERTED TROUGH GIVES US 588 SE FLOW...WHICH HELPS KEEP TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MT/DES TSTORMS SAT PM. THE 585 LOW
COULD ALSO SPREAD 1/4 INCH RAINS OVER ALL OF SCALIF SAT NIGHT AND
SUN...BUT THAT IS TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO PREDICT WITH CONFIDENCE....


http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/sgx/display_special_product_versions.php?sid=SGX&pil=AFD
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junior college Donating Member (290 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 02:01 AM
Response to Original message
17. There are several way more deadly hurricanes coming
and they will be direct hits on the US mainland. These yet unnamed hurricanes are going to make Katrina look like a bird pond. There will be untold death and destruction and of course Bu$h will bungle it like he did in NO. Only thing is that this time your average suburban ding dong is going to take notice. Not that I want this to happen but it will be a wake up call for the apathetic American zombies. Of course the 20 percenters will always deny a correlation between planetary abuse and bizarre acts of nature.
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Up2Late Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 02:15 AM
Response to Original message
18. Here's the current posititon and wind field model...
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RL3AO Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 02:43 AM
Response to Original message
20. The western eyewall is making landfall.
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demoleft Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 08:05 AM
Response to Original message
21. "Dean downgraded to category three hurricane"
"Hurricane Dean, which slammed into the Caribbean coast of Mexico on Tuesday, was downgraded from a powerful category five to a still dangerous category three hurricane, the Miami-based National Hurricane Center announced."

AFP, http://www.afp.com/english/news/stories/070821120933.4ma2ru0y.html
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slackmaster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 03:26 PM
Response to Original message
25. The center of rotation is back over open water
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml

Check out the infrared and water vapor loops.
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Karenina Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 04:55 PM
Response to Reply #25
26. Es geht weiter...
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alfredo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 05:15 PM
Response to Original message
27. Watch this animation of Dean Note what they project
after it passes onto the Pacific.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200704_v5d.html?extraprod=v5d#a_topad

It shows it reforming as a Cat 1 hurricane.
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