STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday September 28

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday September 28, 2007

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 480 LONG DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2457 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2169 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2130
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 27, 2007

Dow... 13,912.94 +34.79 (+0.25%)
Nasdaq... 2,709.59 +10.56 (+0.39%)
S&P 500... 1,531.38 +5.96 (+0.39%)
Gold future... 739.90 +4.40 (+0.59%)
30-Year Bond 4.84% -0.06 (-1.14%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.57% -0.05 (-1.02%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact actionpost@legitgov.org

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

The Radical Fringe should return soon.


Read more: du

BY GARY DORSCH

Nowadays, traders of all stripes are betting on an easier Federal Reserve monetary policy. Signs that the US economy is headed into a recession are mounting, led by sliding home prices, a global credit crunch, and the first loss in employment in four years in August. US retail sales stagnated last month, and the glut of unsold US homes reached 10 selling months, its highest in 18-years.

Historically, the US economy has gone into recession seven times since 1960, and six of the downturns were foreshadowed by an Inverted yield curve, where yields on three-month Treasury bills exceed the yield on ten-year Treasury Notes. Usually, when lenders in the bond market are willing to accept lower interest rates for longer term debt than for shorter term debt, it is a signal that the US economy is about to experience a serious slowdown or even a recession within 12-months.

So far in this decade, the Inverted yield curve has made two appearances, in March through Dec. 2000, at the height of the frenzy for internet and high tech stocks, and as recently as July 2006 through May 2007. Soon after the appearance of the Inverted yield curve in 2000, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 imploded in 2001, and an eight month economic recession arrived in 2002.

-cut-

Why did the Bernanke Fed slash the fed funds rate by a larger than expected half-point on Sept 18th, at a time when inflationary pressures are elevated at dangerously high levels in the global economy? Robert Shiller, a Yale University economist, told a US congressional panel on Sept 19th, “The collapse of US home prices might turn out to be the most severe since the Great Depression. The decline in house prices stand to create future dislocations, like the credit crisis we have just seen.”

-cut-

Meanwhile, existing US home sales fell 4.3% in August to a 5.5 million-unit annual rate, swelling the inventory of homes and condos for sale to 4.58 million units, to a record supply of 10-months. Former Fed chief “Easy” Al Greenspan said on Sept 16th that he would not be surprised if US home prices fell by double-digits into 2008.

A fall in home prices on that scale would be unprecedented in US history and could tip the world’s largest economy into recession. US residential real estate has an aggregate value of about $21 trillion, and is the single biggest source of US household wealth. If home prices fall roughly 15%, it could wipe out $3 trillion of household wealth, and deal a huge blow to consumer spending.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

8:30 AM Personal Income Aug
Briefing Forecast 0.4%
Market Expects 0.4%
Prior 0.5%

8:30 AM Personal Spending Aug
Briefing Forecast 0.4%
Market Expects 0.4%
Prior 0.4%

8:30 AM Core PCE Inflation Aug
Briefing Forecast 0.1%
Market Expects 0.1%
Prior 0.1%

9:45 AM Chicago PMI Sep
Briefing Forecast 55.0
Market Expects 53.0
Prior 53.8

10:00 AM Construction Spending Aug
Briefing Forecast -0.1%
Market Expects -0.2%
Prior -0.4%

10:00 AM Mich Sentiment-Rev. Sep
Briefing Forecast 83.8
Market Expects 84.0
Prior 83.8

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

04. U.S. Aug. consumer prices unchanged
8:30 AM ET, Sep 28, 2007 - 5 minutes ago

05. U.S. Aug. savings rate falls to 0.7% vs. 0.9%
8:30 AM ET, Sep 28, 2007 - 5 minutes ago

06. U.S. Aug. incomes up 0.3% vs. 0.4% expected
8:30 AM ET, Sep 28, 2007 - 5 minutes ago

07. U.S. core inflation up 1.8% in past year, lowest in 3 years
8:30 AM ET, Sep 28, 2007 - 5 minutes ago

08. U.S. Aug. core consumer price inflation up 0.1%
8:30 AM ET, Sep 28, 2007 - 5 minutes ago

09. U.S. Aug. consumer spending up 0.6%, most in two years
8:30 AM ET, Sep 28, 2007 - 5 minutes ago

Did anyone else break into raucous laughter while reading those numbers?

Brought tears to my eyes. Funny stuff!

but I did spit tea at the monitor.

Gotta love those core inflation and consumer inflation rates.

Gotta love that increased spending outstripping that magnificent 0.3% wage hike.

Does anybody take those numbers seriously any more?

If they tell us our chocolate ration has doubled...well, we'll sorta believe them even if we know better simply because we're social critters and we want to get along. But when they tell us our chocolate ration has been increased ten-fold...we damned well better have chocolate breath. :D

43. UMich Sept. sentiment matches 83.4 in Aug.
10:01 AM ET, Sep 28, 2007 - 8 hours ago

44. UMich Sept. sentiment below 84.0 forecast
10:01 AM ET, Sep 28, 2007 - 8 hours ago

45. UMich Sept. sentiment revised down to 83.4 vs 83.8
10:01 AM ET, Sep 28, 2007 - 8 hours ago

46. U.S. Aug. public construction outlays rise 0.7%
10:00 AM ET, Sep 28, 2007 - 8 hours ago

47. U.S. Aug. private nonresidential outlays rise 2.3%
10:00 AM ET, Sep 28, 2007 - 8 hours ago

48. U.S. Aug. private residential construction outlays fall 1.5%
10:00 AM ET, Sep 28, 2007 - 8 hours ago

49. U.S. Aug. construction outlays rise 0.2% vs. -0.2% expected
10:00 AM ET, Sep 28, 2007 - 8 hours ago

50. September Chicago PMI 54.2% vs. 53.8% in August
9:46 AM ET, Sep 28, 2007 - 8 hours ago

BANGKOK, Thailand - Oil prices rose back above $83 a barrel in Asian trade Friday, adding to gains in the previous session sparked by a decline in crude inventories at a key Oklahoma terminal and the confrontation between the West and Iran.

Light, sweet crude for November delivery rose 36 cents to $83.24 a barrel in Asian electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by late morning in Singapore.

The Nymex crude contract jumped $2.58 Thursday to settle at $82.88 a barrel during the floor session.

-cut-

Also stoking concerns about crude supplies was a slight decline in oil inventories at the Nymex crude delivery point of Cushing, Oklahoma, last week. That decline was about the only element of Wednesday's inventory report by the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration that was supportive of prices, analysts said. But it was enough to spark a late rally on Wednesday and to boost oil prices again on Thursday.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

WASHINGTON - Freddie Mac, the nation's second-largest financer of home mortgages, is paying a $50 million fine to settle civil securities fraud charges brought by federal regulators in a four-year accounting lapse.

In addition, four former executives at the government-sponsored company settled negligent conduct charges by agreeing to pay a total of $515,000 in civil fines and to make restitution totaling $275,548. They are former president and chief operating officer David Glenn, ex-chief financial officer Vaughn Clarke, and former senior vice presidents Robert Dean and Nazir Dossani.

"We take these charges seriously, and that's why the Freddie Mac of today is a very different company than the Freddie Mac of the past," said Richard Syron, Freddie Mac's chairman and chief executive officer.

McLean, Va.-based Freddie Mac neither admitted nor denied wrongdoing under the accord with the Securities and Exchange Commission announced Thursday, but it agreed to refrain from future violations of securities laws.

An accounting scandal erupted at Freddie Mac in June 2003 when it disclosed that it had misstated earnings by some $5 billion — mostly underreporting them — for 2000-2002 to smooth quarterly volatility in earnings and meet Wall Street expectations.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070928/ap_on_bi_ge/freddie_mac_fraud

WASHINGTON - The International Monetary Fund, which once lent billions of dollars to help countries through financial crises, now faces questions of its relevance in a world that seems to need it less and less.

The fund's 24 executive directors were to meet Friday to choose a new managing director to begin trying to chart a different course for the 185-nation organization that has been trying to give countries with fast-developing economies a greater role in IMF decisions.

In addition, IMF member countries no longer are borrowing as often as they did, so funds for operations are down, staff cuts are imminent, and the agency may have to sell gold reserves to make ends meet.

Countries with fast-developing economies and access to international capital markets, such as China and Brazil, no longer need the IMF, but it still runs lending programs for poorer nations, many of them in Africa.

The inheritor of these problems is almost certain to be France's Dominique Strauss-Kahn, a former Socialist finance minister. He has the support of the United States, the fund's biggest shareholder, and the 27-nation European Union.

If chosen, Strauss-Kahn would replace Spain's Rodrigo de Rato, who announced in June he was retiring for personal reasons in the third year of a five-year term. De Rato will serve through the annual meetings of the IMF and its sister institution, the World Bank, Oct. 20-23.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070928/ap_on_bi_ge/imf

A total of 361 products and 157 medication compounds are now available after the program added medicines for conditions including glaucoma, attention deficit disorder, fungal infections and acne, the Bentonville, Ark.-based company said Thursday. Three fertility and prescription birth control medications also were added at $9 each, compared to national average prices of as much as $30 per prescription.

Wal-Mart has increased pharmaceutical sales to 9% of its $345 billion in sales in the year ended January from 8% as it began the $4 generic drug program in Tampa, Fla., in September 2006 and had expanded it to 49 states by November. The program covers about 40 percent of prescriptions filled in the retailer's Wal-Mart, Sam's Club and Neighborhood Market pharmacies, the company said.

-cut-

Drugstores weigh Wal-Mart impact

While shares of drugstore chains Walgreen Co. and CVS Caremark Corp. were hurt when Wal-Mart first introduced the plan last year, retailers including Walgreen said they have no plans for price matching any time soon.

The same $9 generic birth control prescription at Wal-Mart cost about $25-$30 at Walgreen and Wal-Mart's $4 heart medicine Atenolol with 50mg dosage carried a price of $8.59 at the drugstore chain, Walgreen spokesman Michael Polzin said in an interview.

Walgreen is the largest U.S. drugstore chain and generates about two-thirds of its sales from its pharmacy department.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/wal-mart-expands-4-prescription-generic/story.aspx?guid=%7B0933747F-84D6-44C7-BA93-D1F981CE4CB8%7D&dist=hplatest

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- U.S. stock futures were weaker Friday as investors expressed nervousness ahead of a barrage of economic reports that could fan inflation and recession fears.

At 6:36 a.m. ET, futures were lower and suggesting a negative start for Wall Street. Stocks have been on a run lately, fueled by the Fed's decision to slash rates last week.

But there are concerns that the central bank may not keep lowering rates if inflation flares up. Investors will get a closer look at the inflation situation when the government releases a report on personal income and spending - which includes a key inflation reading known as the PCE deflator.

They'll also take in a number of readings on the health of the economy, including the consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan, along with a reading on construction spending and the Chicago PMI, a regional manufacturing report.

Investors have cheered weak economic reports lately, taking them to be a sign that the Fed will keep lowering rates to juice growth. But signs of a significant slowing in the economy - especially a pullback among consumers - could raise recession fears and dampen sentiment.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/09/28/markets/stockswatch_ny/index.htm?postversion=2007092806

Happy Friday Marketeers!!

Well it looks like we're in for another interesting day at the casino! I smell fear. Could get ugly. Since bad news seems to make the markets do well these days, we can only hope some disaster strikes somewhere so everyone can make some money. Oy.

Julie

$78.10 @6:33...$78.05 @7:45am...


My My....what rollercoaster shall we ride today?

:donut:
Good Morning Folks!!

Yesterday we talked about the debt ceiling being raised. Well, it's a done deal.

U.S. Congress agrees to raise U.S. credit limit
http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2007-09-28T031501Z_01_N27415556_RTRIDST_0_USA-CONGRESS-DEBT-UPDATE-2.XML

WASHINGTON, Sept 27 (Reuters) - With the U.S. government fast approaching its current $8.965 trillion credit limit, the Senate on Thursday gave final congressional approval of an $850 billion increase in U.S. borrowing authority.

The Senate voted 53-42 to raise the debt ceiling to $9.815 trillion, the fifth increase in the U.S. credit limit since President George W. Bush took office in January 2001. The U.S. House of Representatives approved the higher debt limit earlier this year as part of the overall budget resolution and the legislation now goes to Bush for his signature.

My guess is Bush will give us a line about how fiscally responsible he and his cronies have been during his tenure. Also, the chocolate ration has been increased from 4 grams to 3 to celebrate this tremendous accomplishment.

Last trade 78.161 Change -0.156 (-0.20%)

A Weak US Dollar: How Does that Impact You?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/A_Weak_US_Dollar__How_1190910183231.html

Over the past month, the value of the US dollar has fallen significantly with the once mighty greenback dropping to a record low against the Euro and a 31 year low against the Canadian dollar. For currency traders, the dollar’s weakness has provided plenty of opportunities, but for the average person living in the United States, what does a weak dollar really mean? As there are two sides of every coin, a weak currency also has its advantages and disadvantages.

At a time when the US housing market is contracting, the job market is deteriorating and consumer spending is at risk, the US economy needs a weaker dollar. This is the primary reason why we do not expect the US government and the Federal Reserve to stand in the way of further dollar weakness.

Benefits of a Weaker Dollar

1) Increased Exports – One of the biggest reasons why a weaker dollar will help the US economy is because it increases the competitiveness of US goods. It boosts foreign demand while keeping US consumer demand domestic. Over the medium term, this benefits the sales of US corporations which will eventually translate into more jobs and consumer spending. It also helps to reduce the trade deficit, one of the most criticized aspects of the US economy.

2) Foreign Investment – There are three different ways that foreign investment can help the US economy and the US dollar. Over the past few years, foreigners have been big buyers of US real estate. According to a study by the National Association of Realtors, about one in five American real estate agents sold a second home in the year ending April 2007 to a foreign buyer. A third of these buyers come from Europe, a quarter from Asia and 16 percent from Latin America. As the US dollar continues to fall in lockstep with house prices, foreign buyers could provide the support that the US housing market needs to avoid a major crash. The second support would be in the form of value hunting in the US equity markets. If the dollar continues to fall, foreign investors may begin to load up on companies with sound fundamentals that are also less vulnerable to a US economic slowdown. Both of these factors are contingent upon the US dollar showing signs of stabilization. Foreign investors will only swoop in with size when they believe that dollar weakness is nearing an end. The third factor is less contingent upon the outlook for the US dollar. A weaker dollar also makes US corporations more attractive buyout targets. Sovereign wealth funds of countries like China and Dubai are flush with cash and are on the lookout for good investment opportunities.

...more...

Death of Housing Market Leads to Further Dollar Weakness

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Death_of_Housing_Market_Leads_1190930304574.html

The housing market is in big trouble. Not only did sales of new homes drop to a 7 year low last month, but the median price of a home sold also fell by the largest amount in 37 years. This follows an already abysmal report of existing home sales released earlier this week and collectively they provide strong evidence that the US economy is in trouble. For the past few years, the inflated value of homes helped to fuel aggressive consumer spending. Now that house prices and demand are falling while inventories are rising, people will start to become more conservative about their spending habits. The US dollar hit a new record low ahead of the new home sales figures as the record amount of subprime adjustable rate mortgages due to reset next month raised big concerns about the possibility of increased foreclosures. With non-farm payrolls due for out next Friday, the state of the labor market is coming back into focus. Jobless claims were surprisingly low last week, but help wanted ads last month fell to a record low. The market is looking for a 100k rebound in payrolls following last month’s drop. We think this is a bit overly optimistic especially considering the fact that many financial companies have announced fresh layoffs in the past month. Although we don’t expect job growth to be negative for the second month in a row, we also do not expect a significant recovery. Meanwhile there is a tremendous amount of US data due for out tomorrow. We are expecting personal income, personal spending, the PCE deflator, Chicago PMI, Construction spending and the final University of Michigan consumer confidence report for the month of September. The odds are skewed towards stronger rather than weaker data because most of these reports are either tied to inflation or the manufacturing sector.

...more...

Benefits of a Weaker Dollar

1) Increased Exports – One of the biggest reasons why a weaker dollar will help the US economy is because it increases the competitiveness of US goods.


edit to add: What are the goods that U.S. produces?

1) Blowhard Politicians (we could surely export a lot of those)
2) Financial Pollyannas
3) Head in the Sand Right-Wing Ostriches (when their heads are out, they can only walk in circles, which confuses them so they have to re-insert head into sand)
4) Things that blow up like bombs, arms and computer systems


On the upside, if the Peso gains against the dollar that might solve the illegal immigration problem.




My Favorite Master Artist: Karen Parker GhostWoman Studios

:rofl:

actually this is true, we may not control the oil, but we sure as hell sell them the parts for the rigs. I have shipments to Dammam, Dubai, Jubail, and Ras al Khaimah on my desk right now.

Last trade 77.955 Change -0.362 (-0.46%)

Settle Time 15:00 Open 78.372

Previous Close 78.317 High 78.378

Low 77.909 2007-09-28 11:00:01, 30 min delay

52wk High 87.3 52wk High Date 2006-10-13

52wk Low 78.159 52wk Low Date 2007-09-27

:crazy:

By Jennifer Hill

LONDON (Reuters) - Almost half of Britons think people will ditch banks and stash their cash at home following the woes at Northern Rock, according to a survey.

Forty-five percent of people thought the liquidity crisis at the country's fifth largest listed bank will see consumers reject the banking sector.

Some 40 percent of the 1,500 people polled for insurer Cornhill Direct said storing money at home is a good idea.

Britons have 4.6 billion pounds in cash lying around in their homes: more than three-quarters of those questioned admit to stashing cash in their houses, an average 127 pounds.

The top hiding places for cash, according to the survey, range from drawers, tins and pockets, to under beds, mattresses, floorboards and in flowerpots. One respondent even stored cash in the freezer.

more...
http://uk.reuters.com/article/personalFinanceNews/idUKNOA82086720070928

I'd be saving them under my mattress. I don't think these paper greenbacks are much worth the trouble.

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/newsanalysis/businessinsurance/10381807.html?

>>
Wall Street loves a knight in shining armor, be it the Fed or Warren Buffett.

For now, the Fed is the only guy riding through town. The rumor that Berkshire Hathaway's (BRKA - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) Warren Buffett would buy a stake in Bear Stearns (BSC - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) wasn't even a full day old before it was debunked by a report on CNBC that said Bear isn't talking with anyone.

The rumor was good while it lasted, though. Bear Stearns shares rose sharply Wednesday afternoon, and risk premiums narrowed on its bonds and derivatives that offer protection from default. While the pondering and wrangling lasted, the firm organized the sale of $2.5 billion of investment-grade bonds at a price nearly 75 basis points below its prior bond sale in August
>>

:wow:

and raise you a :scared:

Low 77.876 2007-09-28 11:29:11

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i



:wow:

Highlights

Current:



30-day and 90-day vs.greenback:



30-day vs. Euro, Yen, UK Pound and Swiss Franc




Currency Comparison: http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Detailed analysis: http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD

Up-to-the-minute graph: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CD.Y%24%24&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=1

Historical values http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2007-08-27 Monday, August 27 0.951022 USD
2007-08-28 Tuesday, August 28 0.941974 USD
2007-08-29 Wednesday, August 29 0.944109 USD
2007-08-30 Thursday, August 30 0.946342 USD
2007-08-31 Friday, August 31 0.94697 USD
2007-09-03 Monday, September 3 0.94697 USD
2007-09-04 Tuesday, September 4 0.953016 USD
2007-09-05 Wednesday, September 5 0.951656 USD
2007-09-06 Thursday, September 6 0.949307 USD
2007-09-07 Friday, September 7 0.948227 USD
2007-09-10 Monday, September 10 0.949487 USD
2007-09-11 Tuesday, September 11 0.958773 USD
2007-09-12 Wednesday, September 12 0.964134 USD
2007-09-13 Thursday, September 13 0.968617 USD
2007-09-14 Friday, September 14 0.971628 USD
2007-09-17 Monday, September 17 0.970214 USD
2007-09-18 Tuesday, September 18 0.977135 USD
2007-09-19 Wednesday, September 19 0.985513 USD
2007-09-20 Thursday, September 20 0.998901 USD
2007-09-21 Friday, September 21 0.999201 USD
2007-09-24 Monday, September 24 0.998901 USD
2007-09-25 Tuesday, September 25 0.9995 USD
2007-09-26 Wednesday, September 26 0.99552 USD
2007-09-27 Thursday, September 27 0.99691 USD


Current values

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

(I've given up promising to write this table code. Anyone want to take a crack at it? Needs to be in Perl or C.)

Market Open High Low Last Change Pct Time
CD.Y$$ Cash 1.0014 1.0052 1.0014 1.0032 +0.0044 +0.44% 10:02
CD.Z07 Dec 2007 1.0047 1.0064 1.0035 1.0050 +0.0054 +0.54% 10:28
CD.H08 Mar 2008 0.9998 0.9998 0.9987 1.0000 +0.0042 +0.42% set 15:08
CD.M08 Jun 2008 0.9495 0.9495 1.0000 +0.0039 +0.39% set 15:08
CD.U08 Sep 2008 0.9997 1.0000 0.9987 0.9999 +0.0037 +0.37% set 15:08
CD.Z08 Dec 2008 0.9530 0.9530 0.9530 0.9998 +0.0039 +0.39% set 15:08
CD.H09 Mar 2009 0.9997 0.9997 0.9997 0.9997 +0.0044 +0.44% set 15:08

Other combinations: (this will be a table too, same offer applies)

AU.Z07 AUSTRALIAN $/US$ Dec (NYBOT) 0.87815 +0.00180
HY.Z07 CANADIAN $/JAPANESE YEN Dec (NYBOT) 114.425 +0.720
GB.Z07 EURO/BRITISH POUND Dec (NYBOT) 0.69950 -0.00145
EP.Z07 EURO/CANADIAN $ Dec (NYBOT) 1.41380 -0.00455
EJ.Z07 EURO/JAPANESE YEN Dec (NYBOT) 162.36 +0.08
EU.Z07 EURO/US$ (LARGE) Dec (NYBOT) 1.41725 +0.00200


Blather (from http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

The December Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last week's high crossing at 100.70 are needed to renew this year's rally. Closes below Wednesday's low crossing at .9913 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening in early-day session trading.

Analysis

The CBC morning drive-in was talking about the Alberta economy, saying it was "thankfully slowing down" to more reasonable levels ie. to the point where the infrastructure could actually handle it. There's still plenty of economic activity in the forecast, especially coming from the oil sands, which benefits Ft. McMurray, surrounding cities, Calgary and to a lesser extent Edmonton. That city, however, is in the middle of civic elections and its incumbent mayor, Stephen Mandel, is pushing hard for the Port Edmonton concept (one look at a map should tell you that's fairly weird) I was talking about last week - Edmonton as the container port for Prince Rubert B.C. He's also talking a lot about affordable housing. A lot of that's for people displaced by incoming oil workers driving up housing prices.

The Alberta government has lifted the cap on wind power (why was there one in first place?) but it will take awhile for it to have any meaningful effect on the economy.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper announced a government surplus and promised income tax cuts (which benefits mostly the rich). Pure Conservative dogma.

I assumed it would hover just below the US dollar a bit longer.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070928/bs_nm/economy_greenspan_dc_2


The probability of a recession in the United States has increased but is still less than 50/50, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said in comments broadcast on Friday. Greenspan said he expects consumer spending to slow as the housing market slowdown "significantly" reduces the 'wealth effect' but is still not convinced that will lead the world's largest economy to contract.

But when asked if he expected a UK housing market crash, the former Fed chief said such a bleak outlook was premature. Still, he recognized that all asset bubbles, be they in residential housing, equity or real estate markets, will probably burst if you let them expand long enough.

On the current financial market turmoil sparked by a collapse in the risky U.S. mortgage sector, Greenspan said he had little sympathy for the hedge fund community which was "presumably the largest culprit" behind it.

He wasn't concerned at seeing these wealthy investors' net worth dwindle, but argued that their role in greasing the wheels of the global financial system is still crucial and beneficial.

IT'S LIKE THE COUNTDOWN BEFORE CHRISTMAS---IS IT RECESSION YET, DAD? ONE HAS TO WONDER WHAT WOULD BE THE SIGNAL THAT ONE HAS ARRIVED AT CATASTROPHE.

That's how it will be framed, anyway.

Probably starting with Congress, with the usual talking points about spending.

enough that Republics who can't add or subtract will still believe them.

It's not a recession until the super wealthy find themselves losing paper profits domestically as well as internationally.

Personally, I don't believe the old fraud will admit it's a recession until he's standing against the wall in front of a firing squad.

Of course, given the size of the coming De[ression, Alan should have a supporting cast of hundreds, if not thousands, all lined up in matching blindfolds....

Oh my

I'm beginning to wonder if 30-yr fixed will be pushing 8% by next summer

They are not defending it...
What happens now?

More seriously are there geo-political as well as economic strategies being played out here.

This is going to hurt not only foreign holders of USD and USD denominated debt but also all those who peg their currencies to the dollar. In particular it is going to be a blow to the Chinese who have a growing inflation problem, particularly with rapidly rising food and real estate prices. All their imports of raw materials are likely to rise making the problem worse. Sooner or later the Chinese may be forced to break the dollar peg and let the yuan rise. If that happens we will be in a new economic world.

Dow 13,895.63 17.31 (0.12%)
Nasdaq 2,701.50 8.09 (0.30%)
S&P 500 1,526.75 4.63 (0.30%)
10-Yr Bond 4.579% 0.006

NYSE Volume 2,925,354,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,950,277,000

4:25 pm : Friday's reassuring economic reports were not enough to send the stock market out on a high note on the last trading day of the third quarter. The major indices stayed within a tight range, and spent the vast majority of the day in negative territory. Losses, though, were modest in scope.

The Dept. of Commerce released its Personal Income and Consumption report prior to the start of trading. Spending was up 0.6% for August, slightly stronger than the expected increase of 0.4%. This is significant, considering personal spending makes up 70% of economic activity. Personal income rose 0.3% (consensus +0.4%).

One of the favorite inflation indicators of the Fed, the core PCE deflator, met the consensus estimate for an increase of 0.1%. Presumably, the recognition that inflation has moderated will give the Fed more room for further rate cuts.

Interestingly enough, St. Louis Fed President Poole caused a bit of a stir near the end of the trading day after he reportedly said it would be a mistake for markets to bet on more rate cuts. That comment helped erase earlier gains in the Treasury market and sent the major indices to their lows for the session.

The major indices pared their losses in the last 45 minutes, though, as equity traders eventually viewed Poole's comment as an innocuous remark. After all, no Fed official is going to come out and say, "Yes, it would be a good idea to bet on more rate cuts."

The Chicago PMI, a regional manufacturer survey, was reported at 54.2 for September versus 53.8 in the prior month and the consensus estimate of 53.0. Due to the report's regional nature, the data did not cause the market to move much, but it was a welcome indicator due to all the recession chatter lately.

On a related note, it was reported that former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told BBC Radio that there is an increased risk of recession in the U.S. now, but that he still places the odds at less than 50/50.

Eight of the ten economic sectors lost ground Friday. Utilities (-1.4%), and telecom (-0.8%) were the biggest drag on the S&P today. Consumer discretionary (+0.08%) and consumer staples (+0.13%) were the only sectors that finished the day in the green, in response to the strong spending report.

The CRB commodities index was far more interesting than the stock market today, even though the index finished the day close to unchanged. Crude oil futures for November delivery were especially volatile today. Crude prices traded as high as $83.76 before running into resistance. They closed the session at $81.39 or nearly 3.0% off their high

Gold prices jumped 1.3% to $749.60 per ounce. Once again, gold perked up as the dollar index (-0.8%) slid to new lows.

For the quarter the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 gained 3.6%, 3.8%, 1.6%, respectively. The dollar index, meanwhile, dropped 5.1%.DJ30 -17.31 NASDAQ -8.09 SP500 -4.63 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1777/1208/1.90 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1834/1457/1.34 bln

3:30 pm : The stock market reached new intra-day lows in the last half hour following the comment from St. Louis Fed President Poole that it would be a mistake for the market to bet on more rate cuts.

Poole's remark should hardly be seen, though, as a real source of upset. Do you think a Fed official is really going to come out and say, "Yes, it would be a good idea for the market to bet on rate cuts?" All Poole's remark did was provide an added excuse to do some added profit taking ahead of the weekend.

Separately, General Motors (GM 37.07, +0.61) is the largest gainer in the Dow today. The company is getting a boost from details regarding its United Auto Workers (UAW) labor agreement that involves, among other things, a lower wage scale for new, non-core hires.DJ30 -35.12 NASDAQ -12.13 SP500 -6.19 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1867/1069/1.46 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1909/1343/839 mln

and the ever diminishing dollar:

Last trade 77.698 Change -0.619 (-0.79%)

Settle Time 15:00 Open 78.372

Previous Close 78.317 High 78.378

Low 77.666 2007-09-28 17:19:11, 30 min delay

52wk High 87.3 52wk High Date 2006-10-13

52wk Low 78.159 52wk Low Date 2007-09-27