STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday November 15

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday November 15, 2007

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 433 LONG DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2494 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2216 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2177
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 14, 2007

Dow... 13,223.93 -83.16 (-0.62%)
Nasdaq... 2,644.32 -29.33 (-1.10%)
S&P 500... 1,470.58 -10.47 (-0.71%)
Gold future... 814.70 +15.70 (+1.93%)
30-Year Bond 4.60% -0.00 (-0.02%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.27% +0.01 (+0.31%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact actionpost@legitgov.org

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

You are up early....
Today should be interesting...:donut:

:donut: :donut: :donut:

Today should be interesting indeed. Overnight futures charts usually trend high and steady. But not this time. Portent tells a bumpy ride today with lotsa potholes.

BY CHRIS PUPLAVA

When October’s jobs report came out on Friday November 2nd, there were some questions as to the validity of the numbers. Maria Bartiromo asked CNBC senior economics reporter Steve Liesman to comment on the numbers. His response was something on the lines of the following, “I take the numbers at face value.” I sure as heck don’t!

There are two main points that led me to question the validity of the numbers. The first is the discrepancy between the establishment survey (which is the most widely followed and quoted employment survey) and the household survey. The second point is where the strength in the establishment survey is coming from.

Establishment Survey vs. the Household Survey

Before commenting on the different employment numbers from these surveys, a detailed description as to their construction is in order. This breakdown of the construction for the two surveys was done recently by John Mauldin in his weekly commentary on the day the jobs report came out and is presented below:

But there is one flaw in this methodology: it will tend to underestimate new jobs when the economy is recovering from recession and overestimate them when the economy is slowing down (emphasis added). Thus, in 2003-4, the Democrats were beating up Bush about the jobless recovery. As it turns out, those employment numbers were massively revised upward a few years later. There was in fact a powerful recovery going on, just not in the statistics. However, nobody but a few economic geeks paid attention, as it was last year's news.

As John Mauldin pointed out above, the widely reported establishment survey lags the household survey at major turning points in the economy, either when a recovery or a contraction in employment is underway. This can be illustrated in the figure below that highlights the lagging behavior of the establishment survey to the household survey coming out of the 2001 recession. Also shown below is the establishment survey currently lagging again, but this time to the downside.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

"those employment numbers were massively revised upward a few years later. There was in fact a powerful recovery going on, just not in the statistics."

Is Chris Puplava's reckoning a victim of the 'What can we do to get * reelected?' syndrome within the Government
Counting Houses at that time?

I won't believe any numbers released until they stop playing political football with them. IMHO... Partisan politics
controlling the information released by the Govt is the worst crime of the NeoCon agenda. We read about the numbers
being tainted again... and again... and again... and again...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20071115/bs_afp/stocksworld_071115073712;_ylt=Ao63_Ia0JAbuK0p_wHnb8lSmOrgF

TOKYO (AFP) - Asian share prices lost ground Thursday as investors locked in some of the previous day's strong gains, reacting cautiously to overnight losses on Wall Street, dealers said.

Tokyo ended down 0.7 percent, Seoul dropped 1.3 percent, Sydney lost 1.1 percent and Shanghai dipped 0.9 percent.

Singapore declined 1.2 percent in late trade while Hong Kong was down 1.5 percent.

It was "a very soft day," said Stuart Smith, a private client advisor at Bell Potter Securities in Sydney.

The subdued start came after Wall Street lost ground Wednesday as a late sell-off gathered steam when the market failed to keep up momentum from a powerful rally a day earlier.

The falls in Asia were no surprise after Wednesday's strong gains and the retreat on Wall Street, said Ben Kwong, head of research at KGI Securities.

"Concerns over another possible rate hike in China also limited the upside," added Kwong.

Trade was sluggish in Shanghai amid worries that authorities may announce new monetary tightening measures, such as an interest rate hike.

Financial markets are also still nervous that more banks will report losses from the US subprime loan crisis due to rising defaults by American homebuyers with patchy credit histories.

...

In Tokyo, the main Nikkei index rose in early trade but a late downturn erased the gains.

Investors were weighing news of profit falls at several Japanese banks due to losses from the subprime crisis.

Mizuho Financial, Japan's second-largest bank, reported after the close of trade Wednesday a 16.6 percent drop in first-half net profits.

The bank's subprime related losses were not as bad as the market had expected, easing worries about the impact of the US credit crisis on Japan, said Toshihiko Matsuno, senior strategist at SMBC Friend Securities.

"But there is doubt that the rebound in banks will be sustained as there is a possibility of further losses arising later," he said, noting that some major banks have yet to announce their earnings.

/...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20071115/ts_afp/uschinaeconomygrowthworldbank_071115062953

WASHINGTON (AFP) - China's economy is 40 percent smaller than most recent estimates, a US economist said Wednesday, citing data from the Asian Development Bank and guidelines from the World Bank.

Albert Keidel, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a former US Treasury official and World Bank economist, made the comments in a report published by the US think tank and in a commentary in the Financial Times.

Keidel told AFP he made the calculations based on a recent ADB report that made its first analysis of China's economy based on so-called purchasing power parity (PPP), which strips out the impact of exchange rates.

"The results tell us that when the World Bank announces its expected PPP data revisions later this year, China's economy will turn out to be 40 percent smaller than previously stated," Keidel wrote.

"This more accurate picture of China clarifies why Beijing concentrates so heavily on domestic priorities such as growth, public investment, pollution control and poverty reduction."

...

Based on this new analysis, he said "the number of people in China living below the World Bank's dollar-a-day poverty line is 300 million -- three times larger than currently estimated."

Keidel told AFP that under these calculations, China's gross domestic product (GDP) would have been roughly five trillion dollars in 2005, compared to some 12 trillion for the United States on the same basis.

This would still mean China's economy is moving ahead of Japan as the world's second largest economy, but might not overtake the United States until around 2030.

/...

if this redefined and overestimated Chinese economy is the big player in buying up US government debt, the big player in the oil markets driving demand, the big player out-competing us for years in manufacturing and so driving US job losses....then if they are 40% smaller than thought, doesn't this imply that the US economy is 40% more pathetic to be so dependent upon the Chinese?

After all, many are educated at our finest business schools, just like Bush, Bernanke, et al.

:spray: you owe me a screen.

Where should I send it?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20071115/bs_afp/ecbeurozonebankrateforexmoney_071115101053;_ylt=Ak2HRAzIj_FhSsE7RJmghuymOrgF

FRANKFURT (AFP) - The European Central Bank fears inflation could swell in the 13-nation eurozone, which benefits at present from sound economic fundamentals and strong growth in employment, it said Thursday.

The ECB's latest analysis "fully confirmed that the outlook for price stability over the medium term is suject to upside risks," it said in its monthly bulletin for November.

The wording matched that of ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet on November 8, when the bank left its primary interest rate unchanged at 4.0 percent amid rising prices and persistent tensions in eurozone money markets.

The ECB's monetary policy "stands ready to counter upside risks to price stability," the bank added, a signal that it could still raise interest rates should inflation threaten to get out of hand.

In October, eurozone retail prices surged by 2.6 percent, the highest level in more than two years, an estimate by the EU's Eurostat data agency showed.

The rate was well above the ECB's preferred level of close to but less than 2.0 percent.

ECB economists have determined meanwhile, that "overall, the fundamentals of the euro area remain sound," pointing in particular to strong corporate results along with "robust employment growth and falling unemployment to levels not seen for 25 years."

/...

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20071115:MTFH13214_2007-11-15_10-37-15_WEA7085&type=comktNews&rpc=44

FRANKFURT, Nov 15 (Reuters) - European shares extended their losses to trade 1 percent lower on the pan-European top-300 index <.FTEU3> by late morning on Thursday.

Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS.L: Quote, Profile , Research), down 4.8 percent, and French pharmaceuticals maker Sanofi-Aventis (SASY.PA: Quote, Profile , Research), down 4.1 percent, were among prominent losers.

/..

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=aiMrGS8uDt2w&refer=europe

Nov. 15 (Bloomberg) -- European stocks fell to a two-month low after earnings from SABMiller Plc, Sodexho Alliance SA and Credit Agricole SA deepened concern profit growth is slowing.

Experian Group Ltd. had its biggest drop ever after the credit-checking company said sales growth will cool in the second half. Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc slipped on speculation about writedowns in the investment-banking unit it bought from ABN Amro Holding NV. Sanofi-Aventis SA sank after L'Oreal SA cut its stake in France's largest drugmaker.

The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index lost 1.3 percent to 365.82, the lowest since Sept. 17, as all 18 industry groups fell. The measure has dropped 8.6 percent since reaching a 6 1/2-year high June 1, on concern losses tied to U.S. subprime mortgages will hurt earnings and slow economic growth.

``Sentiment is negative and there is currently a tendency for investors to focus on the risk of further downgrades,'' said Ed Wallace, who helps oversee $4 billion in global equities at Gartmore Investment Management in London. ``Companies that are reporting earnings below expectations are being sold off.''

Analysts have cut their earnings growth forecasts for Stoxx 600 companies this year to 8.9 percent from 9.9 percent at the start of last month, data compiled by Bloomberg shows.

National benchmarks dropped in all 18 western European markets. France's CAC 40 retreated 0.9 percent while Germany's DAX slipped 1.5 percent. The U.K.'s FTSE 100 decreased 1.1 percent. The Stoxx 50 decreased 1.1 percent and the Euro Stoxx 50, a measure for the euro region, lost 0.9 percent.

/...

SABMiller, huh. So, even alcohol companies are down in the present climate. Darkest clouds I've ever seen on the horizon. I'm trying to recall in detail what my father (a financial director) had to say back there around 1973...

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=companyResultsNews&storyID=2007-11-15T093134Z_01_L15580416_RTRIDST_0_BARCLAYS-TRADING-UPDATE-2.XML

LONDON, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Barclays Plc (BARC.L: Quote, Profile , Research), Britain's third-biggest bank, unveiled a 1.3 billion pound ($2.7 billion) writedown on its exposure to credit market problems on Thursday, less than was feared.

In a surprise trading update the Barclays Capital investment bank unit said it would write down 500 million pounds for the July-September quarter and 800 million pounds for October.

Barclays shares jumped over 6 percent after the update, but pared gains as analysts said BarCap's growth this year will be restricted by market turmoil and by 0931 GMT the stock was up 1.1 percent. Analysts said the shares rose because the writedown was less than persistent recent speculation had suggested and as the bank had provided greater detail on all its exposure.

BarCap said its pretax profit for the 10 months to the end of October was ahead of a year before at 1.9 billion pounds after writedowns.

"We had a very strong income month in October and that's enabled us to absorb those writedowns," said John Varley, Barclays chief executive, adding that BarCap's income was a record for any month in the fourth quarter.

"We have been conservative, but we've also been firing on a lot of our cylinders in the income line and that enables us to report the results we've reported today," he told reporters on a conference call.

/...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2007/nov/15/economy1
Rising inflation and weak house market over next year, says King

The governor of the Bank of England issued a stark warning yesterday of a looming economic slowdown as he signalled that the next year will be the toughest for Britain in a decade.

Putting investors on high alert for a sharp fall in share prices, Mervyn King said the period ahead would be marked by slower growth, rising inflation, a weakening housing market and a falling pound. He expressed surprise that global stock markets had so-far shrugged off evidence of the slowdown.

The governor stressed that even the two quarter-point cuts in interest rates pencilled in to the Bank's forecasts would not spare consumers from a painful period of belt-tightening next year - and that the risk was that the UK economy would be even weaker than Threadneedle Street currently expects.

Delivering the Bank's quarterly inflation report, he made clear his belief that it will be 2009 - the likeliest date for a general election following Gordon Brown's decision not to go to the country this month - before growth picks up and inflation is brought under control. With oil prices close to $100 a barrel and food prices up by 10% in the last three months, he hinted it would be some time before the Bank responded to economic weakness by cutting the cost of borrowing.

He said the Bank's "central outlook for the UK economy is, in the near term, one of slowing growth and rising inflation. But further ahead that outlook is for a return of growth to its average rate and inflation to target."

King stressed that the period of financial market turmoil that led to the run on Northern Rock was far from over and would be intensified by a tumble in share prices.

"It's very striking that despite developments we've seen in the last three months, equity prices are on average higher now than they were in August. This is true around the world and in emerging markets, they're 20% higher," King said.

/...

Damn. Is it now time to get out of Sterling as well as USD?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/leaders/story/0,,2211075,00.html

(comments including, for example, this one:

'Whilst the inevitable recession will be very painful, it is necessary to rebalance what is a totally unsustainable economic model based on debt, credit markets and low IRs.'

I agree, but I have been round this course before. As soon as there is a sign that the coming recession/downturn is ending there will be a return to the 'irrational exuberance' we have had the last seven or eight years.

It isn't profitable to learn from your mistakes - and there is absolutely no need to, if you don't have to pay for them. It's us peons who will be doing the paying in having our houses repossessed and our jobs made redundant and our public services cut.

The other thing is that the reason we have asset bubbles in all sectors is the huge redistribution of wealth towards the rich and the dismantling of capital controls that have been the aim of our governments for the last thirty years or so. They can't possibly spend their vast wealth and so there are far too many piles of capital looking for profitable investment, which can't be found in a finite world - even a globalised one where the rich's money is footloose and beyond responsibility.

If we were to redistribute money out of the hands of rich gamblers and into productive areas of society (building carbon neutral homes and distributed energy production, for example) we wouldn't end up with such huge imbalances in terms of wealth and in terms of the various officially sanctioned lotteries/casinos our rich friends run for their own interests.

)

8:30 AM CPI Oct
Briefing Forecast 0.3%
Market Expects 0.3%
Prior 0.3%

8:30 AM Core CPI Oct
Briefing Forecast 0.2%
Market Expects 0.2%
Prior 0.2%

8:30 AM Initial Claims 11/10
Briefing Forecast 320K
Market Expects 325K
Prior 317K

8:30 AM NY Empire State Index Nov
Briefing Forecast 15.0
Market Expects 18.0
Prior 28.8

10:30 AM Crude Inventories 11/09
Briefing Forecast NA
Market Expects NA
Prior -821K

12:00 PM Philadelphia Fed Nov
Briefing Forecast 4.0
Market Expects 5.0
Prior 6.8

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

02. U.S. continuing jobless claims down 7,000 to 2.57 mln
8:30 AM ET, Nov 15, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

03. U.S. 4-week avg. jobless claims unchanged at 330,000
8:30 AM ET, Nov 15, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

04. U.S. Oct. CPI energy prices up 1.4%, biggest since May
8:30 AM ET, Nov 15, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

05. U.S. CPI core up 2.2% in past 12 months
8:30 AM ET, Nov 15, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

06. U.S. CPI up 3.5% in past 12 months
8:30 AM ET, Nov 15, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

07. U.S. Oct core CPI up 0.2% as expected
8:30 AM ET, Nov 15, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

08. U.S. Oct. CPI up 0.3% as expected
8:30 AM ET, Nov 15, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

09. Jobless claims at highest level since Oct. 13
8:30 AM ET, Nov 15, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

10. U.S. weekly initial jobless claims up 20,000 to 339,000
8:30 AM ET, Nov 15, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

Govt wealth funds could distort markets-US Treasury

WASHINGTON, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Fast-growing sovereign wealth funds could distort markets if they are allowed to invest for strategic gain and remain opaque in their policies and holdings, a senior U.S. Treasury official said on Wednesday.

The Treasury is studying "non-national security issues" related to the potential distortions from a larger role of foreign governments in markets as such funds invest excess earnings from oil, commodities and other trade, said David McCormick, the Treasury's undersecretary for international affairs.

"For example, through inefficient allocation of capital, perceived unfair competition with private firms, or the pursuit of broader strategic rather than strictly economic return-oriented investments, sovereign wealth funds could potentially distort markets," McCormick said in prepared testimony before the Senate Banking Committee.

McCormick repeated the Treasury's call for the International Monetary Fund and World Bank to develop a code of best practices for sovereign wealth funds, building on existing best practices for foreign exchange reserve management.

"These would provide guidance to new funds on how to structure themselves, reduce any potential systemic risks, and help demonstrate to critics that sovereign wealth funds can be responsible, constructive participants in the international financial system," he said.

SINGAPORE - Oil prices edged lower Thursday after advancing nearly $3 overnight, with traders awaiting the release of U.S. petroleum supply data later in the day.

Prices were supported by expectations that U.S. oil inventories fell last week, but many traders were waiting on the sidelines as "it's too risky to sell crude before the data comes out," Koichi Murakami, a broker at Daiichi Shohin, told Dow Jones Newswires.

-cut-

The contract rose $2.92 to settle at $94.09 a barrel Wednesday.

-cut-

The Energy Information Administration's weekly inventory report to be released later Thursday is expected to show crude oil supplies fell by 300,000 barrels, according to the average estimate of analysts polled by Dow Jones Newswires.

Gasoline inventories, on average, likely fell 100,000 barrels, while distillate stocks were expected to fall 300,000 barrels. Refinery use likely rose 0.7 percentage point to 86.9 percent of capacity.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

TAIPEI, Taiwan - Perhaps the biggest reason that oil costs nearly $100 a barrel can be found in places like China, where roads that were full of bicycles 15 years ago are now choking with cars and trucks. Or in India, where sales of diesel-powered generators have soared as people try to avoid frequent power outages.

The rapid growth in China, India and other emerging economies has been fed by crude oil, but this rising demand for fossil fuels may finally be pushing the limits of supply. If basic economics is any guide, that could also mean $100 is just the beginning of far higher prices.

-cut-

Some experts see a potential disaster looming — in as soon as five years or even less. Chris Skrebowski, the editor of the London-based Petroleum Review, thinks slower-than-expected supply growth combined with rising demand from burgeoning Asian economies could result in a worldwide shortfall of as much as 7 million barrels a day by 2013.

Demand is so strong that Matthew Simmons, a Houston oil and gas investment banker, says $100 a barrel oil may even be a bargain, with $300 crude likely in the future.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071115/ap_on_bi_ge/oil_supply_crunch_7

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/dorsch/2007/1113.html

For the vast majority of Americans who usually don’t follow trends in the crude oil futures market, the Global “Oil Shock” only caught their attention after gasoline prices suddenly jumped 25 cents a gallon at the pump this month, and about 80 cents more than a year ago. Last week, West Texas Sweet crude oil surged to an all-time high of $98.62 /barrel, and jolted the Dow Jones Industrials 4% lower towards the 13,000 level, zapping the value of investors’ 401k accounts.

Guy Caruso, the head of the US Energy Information Administration, told reporters on Nov 12th, “We haven’t seen the full pass-through of high oil prices yet. I would say what's in the pipe right now for gasoline is about another 20 cents.”

The stunning rise in the price of crude oil, up 56% this year and up 365% in a decade, to within a whisker of the magical $100 /barrel level, has some traders wondering whether “Peak Oil” is finally here. If correct, is the spectacular bull-run for global stock markets, which is now 4.5-years old, building a major “rounding top” pattern? Until recently, high and rising oil prices didn’t disturb the bullish psychology among global stock market operators. Instead, the spin surrounding rising oil prices described a positive story, an unprecedented boom in the world economy.

But historically, Global “Oil Shocks” have tipped the global economy into recession. For example, the Arab oil embargo of 1973-74 and the Iranian Revolution of 1978-79 triggered unprecedented increases in oil prices and were associated with worldwide recessions. Depending on how the adjustment is calculated, $38 a barrel for crude oil in the 1970’s would be worth around $96 to $103 /barrel today. Most US recessions in the post-World War II era were preceded by sudden spikes in oil prices.

...

But in an attempt to deflate some of the Iranian “war premium” that has help lift US crude oil prices to within a whisker of $100 /barrel, and knocked the Dow Jones Industrials below the 13,000 level, Mr Bush started to tone down his tough talk of “World War III” over Iran’s nuclear weapons program on Nov 10th, after he secured a pledge from German Chancellor Angela Merkel that Bonn would be willing to support a third round of UN sanctions against Iran.

Merkel, in a visit to Bush’s ranch in Crawford, Texas she would also consider cuts in Germany’s robust trade with Iran, in exchange for Mr Bush’s agreement that diplomacy is the best way to resolve the standoff with Iran.

"The threat posed through the nuclear program of Iran is indeed a serious one. But we also are of the opinion that this issue can be solved through diplomatic means. The next step then, obviously, would be a UN resolution,” Merkel said.

Germany is Iran’s biggest trading partner, reaping a surplus of 4 billion euros in 2006. German machinery powers most of Iran’s industries, transportation and chemical projects.

However, there are recent indications that German engineering giant Siemens, has decided to pull out of all new business dealings with Iran, and Germany’s three biggest banks, Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank, and Dresdner, have quit Iran after a stern warning from US vice-president Dick Cheney that they would encounter strong barriers to doing business in the US, if they continue to do business with Tehran. European banks store Iran’s foreign currency reserves and offer export guarantees.

Global Markets in Un-chartered Territory

Whether the historic rise in crude oil towards $100 /barrel heralds the arrival of “Peak Oil,” or is just a speculative bubble that will deflate, are just some of the tough questions in today’s brave new world of investing.

/...

its only now that the markets are catching up to what the future has for all of us, LESS OIL!!!

This is just the beginning of the rough ride for most of us..

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20071115/ts_afp/oilopecsummit_071115165549

RIYADH (AFP) - OPEC's president said Thursday that "potentially dangerous" high crude prices were beyond the cartel's control as leading members defied pressure to raise their output to help ease the burden of near 100-dollar oil.

"These prices are potentially dangerous," Mohammad al-Hamli, who is also the oil minister of the third largest OPEC producer United Arab Emirates (UAE), told a symposium held as part of a rare OPEC summit.

"OPEC is doing all it can for prices to be suitable" for consumers and producers, Hamli said. "But it is clear that factors are beyond OPEC's control."

Producers have blamed a dramatic decline in the dollar, speculation by investment funds and geopolitical factors for record prices of more than 90 dollars a barrel.

"Why should we increase production?" said Algerian Energy Minister Chakib Khelil, who claimed a production hike would have no influence on prices.

/...

LONDON - HSBC Holdings PLC, Europe's biggest bank, reported another big hit from exposure to the U.S. mortgage crisis Wednesday and warned that bad debts could increase if the U.S. housing market weakens further.

However, the bank's shares rose 3 percent as it reassured investors that third-quarter profits for its global business were ahead of last year, despite the $3.4 billion (2.3 billion euros) impairment charge at its U.S. consumer finance division, HSBC Finance Corp.

The charge was higher than anticipated by analysts and significantly above the $1.9 billion and $2.2 billion booked in the first and second quarter respectively. The division also added $3.4 billion to its credit loss reserves.

HSBC said it would close or consolidate up to 260 more HSBC Finance Corp. branches, adding to 100 branches it had announced previously and taking the number of remaining branches to around 1,000.

-cut-

Reserves against bad debt in HSBC Finance's consumer lending division, including mortgages it originates, more than doubled between the end of June and Sept. 30, to $1.01 billion (690 million euros) from $492 million. Loss reserves in mortgage services, which handle mortgages written by other lenders, rose to $2.42 billion (1.66 billion euros) from $2.15 billion.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071114/ap_on_bi_ge/britain_hsbc

:donut:

My time here is at an end so I can earn a little scratch today. I'll check back when all is done.

Ozy :hi:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3066611

NEW YORK, Nov 14 (Reuters) - A $5 billion money market fund run by General Electric Co's (GE.N: Quote, Profile, Research) asset management unit is offering investors an option to redeem their holdings at 96 cents on the dollar, Barron's Online reported on Wednesday, becoming the latest casualty of turmoil in U.S. mortgage and credit markets.

The GEAM Trust Enhanced Trust fund's assets primarily come from GE's pension trust and other GE employee benefit plans, Barron's said. In a Nov. 8 e-mail to institutional investors, GE Asset Management said "extreme conditions in the credit markets" are forcing the fund to sell securities at a loss, according to Barron's.

It is extremely rare for money market mutual funds -- which are designed to maintain a constant $1 per share net asset value but lack federal deposit insurance -- to lose principal. In 1994, the $100 million Community Bankers U.S. Government Money Market Fund gave investors back just 94 cents on the dollar.

/...

There's no way dodgy instruments such as CDOs should form part of a money market fund. Government bonds, in the main, it should be, with maybe a small percentage of commercial bonds issued by the most (presumably) solid, solvent companies.

This fund, however, is described as "enhanced". Read, I suppose, more risky than usual...

Could the problem involve some big bank or banks defaulting on their part of such agreements? Or, has somebody simply had their hand in the till? :shrug:

-->

Banks prop up money market funds
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/39e0b806-922a-11dc-8981-0000779fd2ac.html
Published: November 13 2007 22:37 | Last updated: November 13 2007 22:37

Banks and mutual fund managers are being forced to prop up their money market funds to prevent ratings agencies from downgrading the funds, as the credit crisis spreads further through the financial system.

Bank of America on Tuesday said it would spend $600m on supporting its money market funds, some of which were exposed to troubled securities.

Legg Mason and SEI Corporation have also provided capital support to their money market funds in order to protect the funds’ credit ratings. A drop in the credit rating would not itself cause the fund to lose money, but it would result in many investors pulling their money out, creating an immediate liquidity drain and a dent in the funds’ reputation as a safe harbour.

Money market fund assets have risen by $640bn to a record $2,340bn in the year to date, according to iMoneyNet, the market information provider. Investors are pouring record amounts of cash into the funds, which have a reputation for safety but are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.

/...

GE bond fund to offer 96 cents on the dollar signaling more money market woes
http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/11/15/ge-bond-fund-to-offer-96-cents-on-the-dollar-signaling-more-mone/
Posted Nov 15th 2007 10:10AM by Peter Cohan
Filed under: General Electric (GE)

MarketWatch reports that General Electric Co.'s (NYSE: GE) General Electric Asset Management (GEAM) Trust Enhanced Cash Fund will offer investors the option to redeem holdings at 96 cents on the dollar. I wonder whether this will look like a relatively good deal when we look back on the problems that money market funds are likely to experience due to their exposure to asset-backed securities (ABSs).

The GEAM fund sustained losses due to mortgage-backed securities (MBS) investments and has already let institutional investors exit the fund. No word on the terms these investors received, but if they had other business dealings with GE, I would be very surprised if they got out below 96 cents on the dollar. Meanwhile, GE plans to withdraw $250 million of its own money from the fund.

As I posted yesterday, GEAM is far from the only money market fund in trouble due to investing in MBSs. One thing's clear -- those who get out first will be better off than the small fry that wait until the end to try to redeem their money from these uninsured funds.

/.

So, such funds should not be classified as "money-market" if they are simply speculative. Mis-selling, or even Fraud going on here?

http://money.cnn.com/2007/10/25/magazines/fortune/funds_sivs.fortune/

"Who could have anticipated a crash in the housing market?"



:eyes:

Foreclosures Hit a Snag for Lenders

By GRETCHEN MORGENSON
Published: November 15, 2007

A federal judge in Ohio has ruled against a longstanding foreclosure practice, potentially creating an obstacle for lenders trying to reclaim properties from troubled borrowers and raising questions about the legal standing of investors in mortgage securities pools.

Judge Christopher A. Boyko of Federal District Court in Cleveland dismissed 14 foreclosure cases brought on behalf of mortgage investors, ruling that they had failed to prove that they owned the properties they were trying to seize.

The pooling of home loans into securities has been practiced for decades and helped propel real estate prices in recent years as investors sought the higher yields that such mortgage trusts could provide. Some $6.5 trillion of securitized mortgage debt was outstanding at the end of 2006.

But as foreclosures have surged, the complex structure and disparate ownership of mortgage securities have made it harder for borrowers to work out troubled loans, in part because they cannot identify who holds the mortgage notes, consumer advocates say.

Now, the Ohio ruling indicates that the intricacies of the mortgage pools are starting to create problems for lenders as well. Lawyers for troubled homeowners are expected to seize upon the district judge’s opinion as a way to impede foreclosures across the country or force investors to settle with homeowners. And it may encourage judges in other courts to demand more documentation of ownership from lenders trying to foreclose.

The ruling was issued Oct. 31 by Judge Boyko, and relates to 14 foreclosure cases brought by Deutsche Bank National Trust Company. The bank is trustee for securitization pools, issued as recently as June 2006, claiming to hold mortgages underlying the foreclosed properties.

On Oct. 10, Judge Boyko, 53, ordered the lenders’ representative to file copies of loan assignments showing that the lender was indeed the owner of the note and mortgage on each property when the foreclosure was filed. But lawyers for Deutsche Bank supplied documents showing only an intent to convey the rights in the mortgages rather than proof of ownership as of the foreclosure date.

Saying that Deutsche Bank’s arguments of legal standing fell woefully short, the judge wrote: “The institutions seem to adopt the attitude that since they have been doing this for so long, unchallenged, this practice equates with legal compliance. Finally put to the test, their weak legal arguments compel the court to stop them at the gate.”

A spokesman for Deutsche Bank declined to comment on the ruling. But the inability of Deutsche Bank, as trustee for the pools, to produce proof of ownership at the time of the foreclosures will fuel borrowers’ concerns that they are being forced out of their homes by entities that may not even hold the underlying loans.

“This is the miracle of not having securities mapped to the underlying loans,” said Josh Rosner, a specialist in mortgage securities at Graham-Fisher, an independent research firm in New York. “There is no industry repository for mortgage loans. I have heard of instances where the same loan is in two or three pools.”

The process of putting together a mortgage pool begins when a home loan is originated by a bank or mortgage lender. That loan is typically sold to a Wall Street firm that pools it with thousands of others. Once a pool is packaged, it is sold to investors in different slices, based on risk. A trustee bank oversees the pool’s operations, ensuring that payments made by borrowers go to the appropriate investors.

Lawyers who represent troubled borrowers complain that trustees overseeing home loan pools often do not produce proof, usually in the form of a mortgage note, that their investors own a foreclosed property. And a recent study of 1,733 foreclosures by Katherine M. Porter, an associate professor of law at the University of Iowa, found that 40 percent of the creditors foreclosing on borrowers did not show proof of ownership. Such proof gives a creditor standing to foreclose against a borrower and is required by law.

“The big issue in all these cases, whether we are dealing with a bankruptcy court, a state court or a federal court, is who really owns the mortgage note, and that is allegedly what they securitized,” said O. Max Gardner III, a lawyer who represents borrowers in foreclosure in Shelby, N.C. “A collateral question is, has that mortgage note really been transferred and assigned to the securitization trust? If not, then they really don’t have standing. It’s Law School 101.”

When a loan goes into a securitization, the mortgage note is not sent to the trust. Instead it shows up as a data transfer with the physical note being kept at a separate document repository company. Such practices keep the process fast and cheap.

Because most foreclosures proceed without challenges from borrowers, few judges have forced trustees like Deutsche Bank and Bank of New York to prove ownership by producing a mortgage note in each case.

Borrower advocates cheered Judge Boyko’s ruling.

The plaintiff’s argument that “‘Judge, you just don’t understand how things work,’” the judge wrote, “reveals a condescending mindset and quasi-monopolistic system where financial institutions have traditionally controlled, and still control, the foreclosure process.” The cases could be filed again in state court, however.

April Charney, a consumer lawyer at Jacksonville Area Legal Aid in Florida, who has been practicing foreclosure law since the late 1980s, said she rarely sees proof of ownership in cases involving securitization trusts. Her group has 30 to 50 such cases and not one of the lenders’ representatives has produced proof of ownership predating the foreclosure action.

“We see a trend toward judges having enough of this trampling of the rules and procedure and care and reverence with which lawyers and litigants and participants in the judicial process should comply,” Ms. Charney said. “Hopefully this will convince everybody that the time to work out these home loans is now.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/15/business/15lend.html?ex=1195794000&en=09648beb1e35f1a5&ei=5099&partner=TOPIXNEWS

I can NOT find the exact case at the present time, but here is the web site for the District Court itself:

http://www.ohnd.uscourts.gov/

So does that mean:

1) The loan was carved up and portions went into different pools ?(which I what I originally thought)

or

2) The SAME LOAN is double or triple counted --- the same loan (or the same portion) is in different pools?

:wow:

Could some of these same loans (or the same portions) been sold multiple times? And the accounting is so screwed up, no one really knows how many times the loans (or portions) have been sold?

Great thinking antigop.

We may never know for sure, but, I tend to think you're correct.

and now nobody knows who really owns the paper, the original paperwork has been lost, and the homeowner can't be sure that ticket he sent in every month with his payment went where it was supposed to.

This is going to be interesting as hell to watch.

We can only hope to keep the GOP out of power long enough that they go to prison.

I've read bits and pieces....

Thanks for the reply.

:donut: and lurkers. I am a tad under the weather today. Hubby decided to go up and visit his sister in NJ while he is off. He decided to go by bus so I got up at 3 this am to get him on the 4:15. I am glad he is visiting them. It does him good to see his family. I told him to take his time and have a long visit. It takes 40 hours to get there by bus but it is not that cheap. I think it is more because it was a last minute. I am sure he will come back with some travel stories. I try to do this cycle and see every one at least once in every 2 years. And since we are spread out to North Texas, Arizona, and Colorado...I think I do pretty well.

I managed to finagle a Thanksgiving Dinner invite at my friends mom's house. They are an Italian family from upstate New York. We always have such a good time. All the aunts are accomplished cooks and the spread is unbelievable. We catch up with the gossip in both families. It is always a blast. My daughters entry dish this year will be pumpkin flan.:9 I think I will bring some nice flowers like I did last year. My friend's hubby had bladder cancer and is currently undergoing his second round of chemo today. We hope the nausea subsides by early next week. I was over there last night and brought him a gallon of fresh squeezed lemonade to get him through the nausea stage. He was a bit winded and fatigued, but doing ok. He's lost a bit of weight but a few meals with his MIL should take care of that.

And speaking of nausea....the Stock Market Roller coaster ride will be racing full tilt down the tracks. Hope folks have the stomach for it. I think it will continue to reset downward for the next year or more, continually retesting the ceiling and floor, baring a major event (a big caveat). Looking at the old data from the Great Depression, you had that one great drop and then a downward trend for some time until we started gearing up for WWII and post war production. I think the curbs seem to be holding and guiding us down. I think that in order to pull us back up-we need to develop some new industry. All this means embracing education, science and research, which this administration is not inclined to do. They seem to want to make money the old fashioned way: war, corruption, fear mongering, and swindling.

I propose, for the next elected congress and administration we ease restrictions on educational visas, fund education and clean house in the educational loan industry that is sapping the life blood out of our new graduates. I think we should be front and center of the global warming issues. Bio fuels are a bit better, but there has got to be something better than growing corn. We need to stop putting food in our gas tanks. Why can't we recycle green house gases as a fuel-or at least trap them? Detroit need to rethink the internal combustion engine and spark research into alternatives. They have the brain power and the man power. With some bold steps and bold leadership-the industry can and needs to be retooled to save it's self. We had need for more research in water-saving and recycling. We need more efficient use of all our resources. We don't need the next war to be fought over water. We need a bold government that can focus on the needs of the people, not politicians bent on saving their assets. I remember someone once told me that the chinese character for misfortune was the same as opportunity. That in every disaster-there can be opportunity. As a nation, we need to start focusing on these areas as possible new growth industries, instead of war. We need to remember Maslow's pyramid of hierarchical needs. Folks that have their basic needs met are less incline to engage in activities such as terrorism and war. America as a nation is particularly good at thinking outside the box....and we need to do this now more than ever.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

:thumbsup:

(Did Hubby remember to pack his Ruction Cream? ;) )

tall, dark skinned, foreign type guy with a heavy accent buying a last minute ticket on a bus. Sounds suspicious to me....and I'm his wife. :spray:

:-) So, how does the time and price of such a trip by bus compare with travelling by rail, over there?

(cf. A green light for Eurostar: The train that takes the eco-strain (London-Paris 2 hours)).

Time: 1 day, 15 hours
Miles: 1854
Cost: $262 USD in Euro's about 178.23 more or less if site can be trusted.
Paying cash instead of credit card.....priceless ;)

there are few passenger trains this far South and it costs as much or more than a flight. I have traveled in Europe by train and LOVE it. No such luck here once you get out of New England. Rail here is pretty much for transporting goods-not folks. You also have to consider the sheer size of the US.

European cities never had to face the onslaught of the automotive industry to the extend we have here. Geography helped the automobile. We use to have trolleys in the major cities. The auto industry systematically bought and then tore up the lines-forcing folks into cars.

(You'll have seen R. Crumb's famous drawings "A Short History of America", I guess :-) ).

Must require some weird economics to render air travel cheaper than rail, though.

The most important factor in a great long distance train is the restaurant car, and then the bed. Time just flies!

edit to add: And rail, as I understand it, surely, is what made the sheer size of North America feasible in the first place?

something unknown to a large number of Americans....I can say it is the most cost effective and practical way to go. Nothing like going to bed in Frankfurt and waking up in Paris (ok, the drunk Polish worker that got on mid way in the top berth, I could do without).

I love the restaurant cars, but the trolley dollies were nice too. My daughter says she always thinks of them when she reads the Harry Potter books. She thought they were so cool when we traveled in England (at 13 it is easy to impress one with some chocolates and a beverage).

a device tacked onto the end of a muffler that compresses the exhaust.

Or perhaps something akin to the scrubbers in the stacks of coal plants to better clean the exhaust.


hmmmm....

and if you do make a fortune on one of my ideas-be kind and remember me just a tad....1-2% should do in my old age. I had originally asked my daughter to put me in the Eskimo Retirement Home (one ice floe, a few cans of tuna, can opener and a few cans of sterno) but that idea is quickly melting.

:spray:

The Dark Side of the Mogambo

By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - The Daily Reckoning
http://news.goldseek.com/RichardDaughty/1195142460.php


-- Posted Thursday, 15 November 2007

Total Fed Credit was up only $1.7 billion last week, and foreigners only bought up only $311 million in US government and agency securities, which seems odd that interest rates mostly fell, and the rate on 3-month T-bills dropped to 3.6%, almost a full percentage point below the Fed Funds rate.

And the link at 321Gold.com showed $43 billion in repos last Thursday. A new record for the slimy banking system!

And it is not just us moron Americans that are acting like corrupt scumbags, but the European Central Bank is just as shallow, as we learn from Mr. Gonzalez-Paramo, the ECB's "market operations" top dog. According to the Financial Times headline, he says that the ECB is "ready to take emergency action 'for as long as needed'".

Apparently, my scathing email message ("What in the hell is 'for as long as is needed' supposed to mean?") got through, because later in the article he "clarifies" things by explaining that "To the extent that money markets remain subject to tension, we will stay there as long as necessary".

Tension? What the hell is "tension"? Naturally, I became angry at this continual evasion, and I was not surprised that my next email did not go through, seeing that it was just one long, rude, obscene, angry, threatening and vaguely homicidal message from the Very Dark Side Of The Mogambo (VDSOTM).

Part of the problem that necessitates such meddling in the markets may be found in the essay "Is Another Dot-Com Bust Imminent?" by Robert Morley and Richard Palmer, and forwarded to me by JMR Terry L. The question and concern is plain; are stocks high enough to crash and take the economy with it? They explain, "If you try hard enough, any number of reasons can be found to justify paying high prices for stocks with little earnings (and sometimes there may be a good reason). But the question is, why would so many choose to when the economy is flashing clear warning indicators of trouble ahead?"

I thought he was asking a question, and I was already rising to my feet to helpfully explain that a lot of really stupid people have been taken advantage of by unscrupulous people, and these unscrupulous people still have mortgages to pay, too, and children to send to college, and bills to pay, and us stupid people have to continue to be fleeced so that the unscrupulous amongst us can continue to pay their bills, and how I blame the Federal Reserve for creating all the excess money and credit, and how I blame the Congress for allowing them to create all that excess money and credit, and how I mostly blame the Supreme Court because they are the corrupt, lying, thieving buttheads who always ruled that the Constitution does not say what it clearly says about what money is, and what it is to be made of, and how it is to be valued, and now we are stuck with a fiat currency in the hands of a corrupt central bank being used to grow the size an debt of the government, which is the opposite of what was intended in the Constitution.

Since this is one of my favorite harangues, you can imagine the look of horror on their faces as they see me licking my chops in anticipation. They quickly head me off and hurriedly interject the invitation, "Let's recap."

And then, in a sudden avalanche, they recite the long litany of problems, starting off with, "The housing market is collapsing and the bottom is still nowhere in sight. Foreclosures have doubled over the past year. Subprime borrowing, which used to be over 10 percent of the total market, has virtually dried up. Home inventories are rising while home prices are falling like rocks across most of the country. People are no longer able to use their homes like ATM machines every time they refinance their mortgages."

By this time I am reeling, but they unrelentingly go on, "Consumer spending is almost sure to take a hit. The home construction industry is seizing up, with thousands being laid off. The banking industry is being walloped by a credit crunch that Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke considers so serious that he almost immediately cut interest rates. The banking sector is hemorrhaging. The biggest bank in the United States reported a 57 percent drop in third-quarter earnings. Bank of America, the second-largest U.S. bank, reported a 32 percent drop in earnings. The leading U.S. savings and loan, Washington Mutual, says it expects a 75 percent drop in profits, while Merrill Lynch had to write down $5.5 billion in bad subprime and leveraged-loan losses for June to September. Thousands of people in the real-estate, mortgage lending and banking sectors are being laid off."

And to show that this not entirely news to anyone, they note that, as you would expect, "In August, investments totaling a record-breaking $163 billion fled the U.S., according to the latest Treasury Department figures. For the first time since 1998, foreigners on balance sold U.S. government treasuries. The dollar is at its lowest level ever. The Canadian loonie is now worth more than the U.S. dollar. The euro continues to rise against the dollar."

Then they stab me right in the heart with the thing that I fear most; inflation in prices. "Prices of commodities including wheat, corn, milk, oil, gold and silver are all soaring-also not good news for consumer spending or the economy. And, amazingly- in the face of all this bad news -investors continue to buy U.S. stocks that could well be significantly overvalued."

And notice that he does not mention how bonds are so grossly overvalued, and how the system of overlapping/incestuous/expensive governments is grotesquely overgrown, too, all of which is because so damned much money has been created by the central banks to finance all this additional government debt, and all of these oceans of money had to end up somewhere, and there is nothing else that CAN literally spend or absorb that enormously much money! So naturally everything is overpriced!

In short, things are starting to get really weird out there. Perhaps Mike Whitney of InformationClearingHouse.info sums it up best when he says "The news is all bad. The nation's economic foundation is in shambles. US credibility is shot. Bush and Greenspan have put us on the road to ruin. Now their work is done. We're flat broke."

Flat broke? Yikes! I remember the first time I told the family that we were flat broke, which was bad enough what with all their whining and yelling, but made all the worse by having to admit it was because of my own indolence and stupidity, and then made even worse than that by having to repeat the same thing week after week, until I finally had a bellyful of their whining and complaining, and I finally got up off of the couch, took a shower, and went out and got a damned job, which at least shut them up for awhile.

So it is surprising to me that I am looking out of the periscope of the good ol' Mogambo Bunker Of Ultimate Refuge (MBOUR) and marveling that the world is not actually in flames, and the idiots collectively known as "the American public" are not out rioting in the streets.

Then I remember the old adage that "ignorance is bliss", and then perhaps it all makes sense again. Then I remember that I am pretty ignorant about a lot of things, too, like interpersonal skills, compassion and ordinary civility. Then I wonder why I am not blissful. I figure it is a plot by the CIA. Or my hateful neighbors. Probably Bob.

This past weekend almost 300 homes were auctioned off in Massachusetts. It was a Countrywide Financial auction. Most homes sold for about 40% off July 2004 prices and most need work.

Real Estate Disposition will sell 1,000 homes in Houston, Dallas, Phoenix and Las Vegas in December. Countrywide, Bear Stearns and Wells Fargo own the houses. Auctions are scenes you will see every month for the next few years.

Countrywide President, Angelo Mozilo, at a presentation at the Milken Institute a few weeks ago said, “He and his company were victims of financial forces beyond their control.” He explained that borrowers forced lenders like Countrywide to lower mortgage standards. The industry faced special pressure from minority advocates to help people buy homes.

This is the first admission by a mortgage lender that banks and perhaps the Treasury or the Fed had pressured lenders like Countrywide to relax standards. The minority demands were aided and abetted by politicians. Mozilo stated it is now time for the government to increase loan limits at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Countrywide says it bent over backwards as the largest lender to Hispanics, African-Americans and Asians. As it turns out most of these borrowers should have never received loans. Mozilo decried the practices of competitors in 2005 and 2006, but emulated them to keep and expand market shares. These telltale signs also told Mozilo that all this would end up badly and that is why he ended up selling Countrywide stock. He was assisted in building this dream by Sir Alan Greenspan, then Chairman of the Fed, who extolled the virtues of the ARM, adjustable rate mortgage, and said everyone should have one. This madness was officially sanctioned by the Fed and they supplied a 1% prime rate and 3-1/4% ARM teaser mortgages to make it all happen. Mozilo took full advantage by getting bigger and using vertical integration. That is capturing ancillary business to further fatten profits. Mozilo played the political aspects to the hilt with many connected and well known people joining his board. Mozilo went to the edge and it looks like he may have fallen over.

The SEC is investigating Mozilo for selling his shares into a market where his own firm was the buyer. The company borrowed $1.5 billion in badly needed capital to purchase 38.6 million shares for $39 each. This has been a common practice among executives to enrich themselves at shareholder expense. If the SEC were to find this inappropriate, which it is, then Angelo would have to give the profits back to the company. That could happen, and should happen because he knew exactly what was going on. It will also affect thousands of other executives who did the same thing. There is no more blatant conflict of interest.

Posted Thursday, 15 November 2007

Record numbers of homeowners are defaulting on their mortgages and as they do so, questionable practices among lenders are coming to light in bankruptcy courts, leading lawyers to contend that companies instigating foreclosures may be taking advantage of the imperiled borrower, because there is little oversight of foreclosure practices and the fees that are charged, bankruptcy specialists fear that some consumers may be losing their homes unnecessarily or that mortgage services who collect loan payments are profiting from foreclosures.

Bankruptcy specialists say lenders and loan servicers often do not comply with even the most basic legal requirements, like correctly computing the amount the borrower owes on a foreclosed loan or providing proof of holding the mortgage note in question.

Questionable fees have been added to almost 50% of loans in Chapter 13 bankruptcy. The adds were mostly less than $200 each, but collectively they raise millions of dollars for loan servicers at a time when the other side of the business, mortgage origination is in the tank.

http://news.goldseek.com/InternationalForecaster/1195142520.php

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 75.914 Change +0.062 (+0.08%)

Bernanke: Getting More Serious About Inflation

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Bernanke__Getting_More_Serious_About_1195079311359.html

Ben Bernanke is making major changes at the Federal Reserve, ones that will probably be apart of his legacy. According to Bernanke’s speech this morning about changing FOMC communications, the Fed will be looking at the “overall inflation rate” to determine whether they have met their mandated objectives of maximum employment and price stability. Although they stopped short of announcing an actual inflation target, the fact that they will be publishing their projections for overall inflation and core inflation 3 years forwarded and updating them quarterly instead of biannually indicates that at least internally they have an inflation target. To the market, this can be considered inflation targeting lite. Bernanke also pointed out the importance of using the entire inflation rate and not just the core rate in determining the current level of price stability. This tells us that they Federal Reserve really doesn’t want to lower interest rates even though last week the Fed Chairman warned that the downside risks to growth far outweigh the upside risks to inflation. The changes made today also confirm that the US has a central bank that prefers tighter over looser monetary policy. Even though the US dollar has strengthened slightly following these changes, they are not groundbreaking enough to cause a big move in the currency markets because we all already know that Bernanke earned his nickname printing press Ben years ago. Retail sales and producer prices were equally unsatisfying. Retail sales rose more than expected last month but consumer spending growth slowed materially when compared to the prior month. Monthly producer price growth was weaker than expected, but the annualized pace of growth rose to a 2 year high and interestingly enough the increase was driven primarily by the rise in food and not energy prices. This means that we should see the contribution of higher energy costs in the November numbers. Tomorrow we are expecting US consumer prices along with the Empire State and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys. We are still looking for stronger numbers overall which should be dollar positive.

...more...

Will Carry Trades Resume Their Losses?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/Will_Carry_Trades_Resume_Their_1195067504769.html

Recently carry trades, global equities and commodities have all stumbled onto the chopping block. If this market-wide sell off looks familiar, it should. This is the same sort of highly correlated move that swept the markets back in July and August. Given the sizable moves racked up in all of the pertinent assets over this past week, comparisons were bound to be drawn between then and now.

What most market participants are eager to know is whether this is yet another pull back offering good buying opportunities or the true turn in the market. For currency traders, this question could define trends in direct carry trades (like the yen crosses) and possibly even the US dollar. So, to understand conditions this time around, it is important to examine what happened in August.

The August Slump

Broad risk trends have seen incredible volatility over the past four months as a US-centric subprime mortgage problem has evolved into a full blown, global credit crunch. While many market participants had followed the slow descent of the American housing market into its current recession, few had expected the troubles to breach the boundaries of the isolated sector – much less the country. However, all of that changed in late July. Risk aversion slowly started to perk up on July 20th after an Australian hedge fund wrote down the value of its US residential mortgage-backed securities. From there, a number of hedge funds succumbed to the building credit crunch (see the map below). And, in an unprecedented move, on August 9th, in response to seizing credit markets, the ECB injected 94.8 billion euros into the market in an attempt to calm the sudden demand for cash on hand. This market aid triggered preceded a trend of major central banks infusing the market with cash. However, these efforts were clearly ineffective as declines in global equities and carry traders actually accelerated. It wasn’t until August 17th, when the Federal Open Market Committee announced a 50 basis point reduction to its discount rate that the worries began to alleviate. After this unusual move, risk appetite and carry trades started to creep back up. Hesitancy in this budding rebound was washed away on September 18th when the Fed followed up with a 50 basis point cut to both its Federal Funds and discount rate.

...more...

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/PersonalFinance/story?id=3869459&page=1

NEW YORK (AP) - When people start talking about rappers and supermodels shunning the dollar, you know there's a problem.

As the greenback recently hit historic lows against other major currencies, rap mogul Jay-Z released a new video in which he flashes euros, not dollars. It was also widely reported last week that one of the world's richest supermodels, Gisele Bundchen, opted to be paid in euros because of the dollar's weak outlook. Her spokeswoman has denied that the model was spurning the dollar, saying Bundchen is paid in the currency of a job's location.

...

While investors, multinational businesses and travelers have been witnessing the dollar's slide for years, pop culture is new territory.

Jay-Z's "Blue Magic" video seems to have been an attempt to acknowledge the dollar's decline in an ironic way and to paint the artist as an international superstar who is smarter than those accepting greenbacks.

"It is probably a particularly good strategy as the 'image of the dollar' loses its 'currency' as an emblem of extravagance and success," Steven Tepper, associate director of Vanderbilt University's Curb Center for Art, Enterprise and Public Policy, said in an e-mail. "So, you have the combination of a weakening visual icon - the dollar - and a growing international audience that will understand and connect to the image of the euro.

/...

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/currency/eur_news/US_Dollar_Rallies_Despite_Plummeting_1195155482595.html?engine=rss&keyword=article

The US dollar continued to recover against major currency counterparts, as deterioration in global risk sentiment encouraged currency traders to cover dollar-short positions. The greenback saw the bulk of its gains through early morning European trade. Germany’s DAX index shed a sizeable 1.5 percent and London’s FTSE 100 lost a similar 1.1 percent—sinking the euro and the British pound against its downtrodden US counterpart. A similar unwind in carry trades made the Japanese Yen the strongest performer on the day, while the high-yielding Australian and New Zealand dollars slipped further off of recent heights.

Mixed US economic data had little effect on the domestic currency, with an exactly as-expected result in the key Consumer Price Index report having no immediate effect on market sentiment. Indeed, interest rate futures remained almost exactly unchanged in immediate aftermath of the highly-anticipated inflation report. A later tumble in the Dow Jones Industrial Average was the most market-moving event of the session, and it seems as though risk sentiment continues to deteriorate into late New York trading. Given a sharp decline in US Treasury Bond yields, investors are clearly showing their reluctance to buy and hold risky US stocks.

Interest rate futures have responded in kind, and the implied yield on the December Federal Reserves Funds Future fell a significant 5 basis points to 4.32 percent. Such price action shows that traders predict a 92 percent chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by a minimum of 25 basis points to 4.25 percent. Under and markets continue to expect that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its upcoming meeting. Under normal market conditions, falling US bond yields and Fed rate expectations would hurt the dollar. Yet we continue to see market risk aversion trump changes in yield differentials across key risk-sensitive currencies.

/...

Look at the Yen go!

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071115/bs_nm/carlyle_asia_dc

HONG KONG (Reuters) - Private equity is likely to see lower returns in coming years as it faces challenges including more costly debt, Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubenstein said on Thursday.

Such a dip in returns would not be surprising given that the industry enjoyed a "golden age" from 2002 to this year when "everything went perfect for almost everybody in the industry," the private equity veteran added.

"Right now I think return levels are probably going to come down. I think it's unlikely that we can do as well as we've done. I hope it can be possible," he told an industry conference in Hong Kong.

"Clearly, when I'm fundraising I probably emphasize that we can probably do as well as we've done in the past, but the truth is it's probably unlikely."

Carlyle, one of the world's largest private equity firms, manages $75.6 billion in assets.

The global credit crunch has sent the private equity sector into a "pause mode," he said, but added investors should be aware the industry weathered similar lulls in 1990-91 and 2000-01.

...more...

Rubenstein... hmmmm... let me think :think:

"Such a dip in returns would not be surprising given that the industry enjoyed a "golden age" from 2002 to this year when "everything went perfect for almost everybody in the industry," the private equity veteran added."

I got an INSTANT headache reading that.

Thanks!

there are days that I wonder if what I see means a darn thing to anyone but me - and then I have to remember that it really doesn't matter - it means something to me (and I guess to you, also)

:hi:

...if my kids or my husband don't get to me first.

I LOVE what you guys do, everyday.

It MATTERS to ME, too.

:yourock:

11/11/07 The people running the economy are either naïve or corrupt, said business professor Peter Morici of the University of Maryland after winning his second straight Forecaster of the Month award from MarketWatch.

Morici won the award by having the most accurate forecasts of any of his peers on 10 major U.S. economic indicators released in October.

His accurate forecast for the September nonfarm payrolls report was the key to his victory in the closest contest yet in the four-year history of the award, instituted by MarketWatch to honor those with the best record of forecasting the volatile monthly data that often move markets most.

Morici narrowly edged out Joseph LaVorgna of Deutsche Bank for the crown. The other top finishers in October were Dean Maki's team at Barclays Capital, Ethan Harris' team at Lehman Bros., and David Rosenberg of Merrill Lynch.

He says the Federal Reserve and the Treasury are "naïve" about the global economy, charges that Wall Street is infected by "petty corruption," and says "only a commissar could love General Motors."

When Morici looks at the falling dollar and messy end to Wall Street's love affair with debt, he gets animated.

"The capital markets are the mainspring of the American economy, and they are broken," he said in an interview.

more...
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/two-time-champ-morici-climbs-his/story.aspx?guid=%7B803B6C19%2DFB79%2D4FE8%2DBE44%2DB7CE7952BE01%7D

That should be interesting.....


Proud to be rec.#5

My Favorite Master Artist: Karen Parker GhostWoman Studios

11/15/07 Two Interviews on CNBC on FASB 157: Or Being Forced to Price Radioactive Toxic Waste at Market Values
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/226943


11/14/07 yesterday's blog
read comments Written by Bernard

There is a lot of confusion about FASB 157 right now. I know people have gotten fairly agitated about this issue.

I've tried to read into this as best I can, and from what I can read on the Internet, it says that the Wall Street firms have ALREADY implemented FASB 157 as it stands.

FASB 157 provides for the Level 1/2/3 accounting hierarchy that we have been discussing to begin with.

Essentially, FASB 157 allows the Wall Street firms to get away with fabricating their asset values---to use Level 3 valuations based on their own "assumptions" when there are no bids in the market for the asset (or similar assets).

The passing of the November 15th deadline will really only result in changes for all the other firms in the country---OUTSIDE OF WALL STREET.

So, FASB 157 does not "clean up" Wall Street by any means whatsoever. They will continue to deceive the public and falsify their reported profits.

more...
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/226654

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20071115/bs_afp/marketsfinanceusbankinject_071115160025;_ylt=AupHPTjvcRN9XwRRqkrsUmimOrgF
1 hour, 1 minute ago

WASHINGTON (AFP) - The Federal Reserve injected 47.25 billion dollars into US money markets Thursday to help ease tight liquidity, the central bank said.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York said it had injected the money in three separate operations: 19.25 billion dollars in a one-day operation, 20 billion dollars in a six-day operation and eight billion dollars in a 14-day operation.

/..

Big number, today...

It's pretty obvious these are band-aid actions now.

They've been kiting these banks for weeks... Nay, MONTHS!

I guess they're hoping they can carry on until everyone is distracted and no longer paying attention.
Some people have very long attention spans when it comes to money... Especially, THEIR money.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3067275

"biggest temporary daily infusion into the U.S. banking system since just after the September 11, 2001 attacks as short-term lending rates rose on both sides of the Atlantic"

The government may go ahead with its bid to seize assets from Ken Lay's estate, a judge ruled Wednesday, denying a request from the Enron chairman's widow to stop the effort.

<snip>

The judge wrote that prosecutors had provided "ample allegations" of criminal activity tied to the cash and property in question to pursue its case.

<snip>

Ken Lay's May 2006 convictions on 10 counts of fraud, conspiracy and lying to banks were erased because he died of heart disease before he could be sentenced or launch an appeal.

<snip>
Because Lay's record is clean, the government will have to prove his guilt again at a civil forfeiture trial as though the criminal trial hadn't happened.


more.......

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/5302617.html


The wheels of justice are turning slowly, but they are turning. This article is a must read but esp read the comments. The first comment is a lulu. I think it should be recommended DU'ers:evilgrin:

Edited to add that they seemed to remove the first comment....the person was asking if that meant we could go after the billions of dollars of profit some folks made illegally on the war in Iraq....Damn!

:tinfoilhat:

:tinfoilhat: I read the comment, edit to add for a DU kick and when I went back to kick it.....it was gone. Guess the thought police got to it first. But it does raise an interesting point. How will Bush make those last minute pardons (and you know they are cranking them out now) effective when most of these folks haven't been charged or gone to trial yet. Can you give a blanket pardon to someone who hasn't been charged yet. I'd be watching the fine print on any bills the GOP wants passed, esp if the concede something that the DEM's want. I expect a Trojan Horse!!!!!

http://www.economist.com/daily/news/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10143203
Nov 15th 2007 | PARIS
From The Economist print edition
President Nicolas Sarkozy faces his toughest fight so far in his efforts to reform France

IN A wintry November 12 years ago, a first-term French president brought weeks of chaos to the streets and paralysis to the railways by trying to end the country’s generous “special regimes” for public-sector pensions. In the end, Jacques Chirac’s government did what French governments do best: it dropped the whole plan.

This week, another new president, Nicolas Sarkozy, was confronted with what some hard-left union leaders promised would be a replay of 1995. On Wednesday November 14th railway, bus and metro workers brought France to a standstill on the first day of a rolling, open-ended, strike against similar plans to end the special regimes. This marks the start of the most testing period of Mr Sarkozy’s presidency. On November 20th teachers, town-hall staff, post-office workers and other civil servants are due to strike. A week later it will be the turn of magistrates. And militant students have put up blockades on 20-odd university campuses. In two cases, riot police were sent in to clear them.

Officially, this week’s strikes were against the government’s plans to end the special regimes. These allow railway, electricity and gas workers, plus a few others in “arduous” jobs, to retire on full pension after only 37½ years of pension contributions, rather than 40 years in the rest of the public sector. Some 500,000 workers, and 1.1m pensioners, benefit. Over the next four years, Mr Sarkozy wants to lengthen the required contribution period to 40 years.

In reality, the trial is over Mr Sarkozy’s overall determination to face down the opposition of left-wing conservatism. Victory now could stiffen his resolve to push through his other reforms. These include lengthening to 41 years the required pension-contribution period for all workers, as well as changes to the labour market and the benefit system. Some French commentators call this the president’s Thatcher moment.

/...

Highlights

Current:



30-day and 90-day vs.greenback:



30-day vs. Euro, Yen, UK Pound and Swiss Franc




Currency Comparison: http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Detailed analysis: http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD

Up-to-the-minute graph: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CD.Y%24%24&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=1

Historical values http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2007-10-04 Thursday, October 4 1.002 USD
2007-10-05 Friday, October 5 1.01885 USD
2007-10-08 Monday, October 8 1.01885 USD
2007-10-09 Tuesday, October 9 1.01564 USD
2007-10-10 Wednesday, October 10 1.01906 USD
2007-10-11 Thursday, October 11 1.02627 USD
2007-10-12 Friday, October 12 1.02701 USD
2007-10-15 Monday, October 15 1.02501 USD
2007-10-16 Tuesday, October 16 1.0227 USD
2007-10-17 Wednesday, October 17 1.02712 USD
2007-10-18 Thursday, October 18 1.02743 USD
2007-10-19 Friday, October 19 1.03767 USD
2007-10-22 Monday, October 22 1.01926 USD
2007-10-23 Tuesday, October 23 1.03381 USD
2007-10-24 Wednesday, October 24 1.02987 USD
2007-10-25 Thursday, October 25 1.03381 USD
2007-10-26 Friday, October 26 1.03961 USD
2007-10-29 Monday, October 29 1.04745 USD
2007-10-30 Tuesday, October 30 1.04888 USD
2007-10-31 Wednesday, October 31 1.05307 USD
2007-11-01 Thursday, November 1 1.05296 USD
2007-11-02 Friday, November 2 1.06838 USD
2007-11-05 Monday, November 5 1.07101 USD
2007-11-06 Tuesday, November 6 1.0819 USD
2007-11-07 Wednesday, November 7 1.09075 USD
2007-11-08 Thursday, November 8 1.07492 USD
2007-11-09 Friday, November 9 1.06553 USD
2007-11-12 Monday, November 12 1.06553 USD
2007-11-13 Tuesday, November 13 1.03745 USD
2007-11-14 Wednesday, November 14 1.0408 USD

Current values

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

Market            Open   High    Low   Last  Change    Pct 
CD.Y$$ Cash     1.0280 1.0280 1.0200 1.0200 -0.0178 -1.72% 
CD.Z07 Dec 2007 1.0255 1.0290 1.0204 1.0209 -0.0168 -1.62% 
CD.H08 Mar 2008 1.0235 1.0236 1.0200 1.0200 -0.0175 -1.69% 
CD.M08 Jun 2008 1.0230        1.0230 1.0230 -0.0139 -1.34% 
CD.U08 Sep 2008 1.0380 1.0380 1.0380 1.0362 +0.0006 +0.06% 
CD.Z08 Dec 2008 1.0387 1.0395 1.0387 1.0355 +0.0006 +0.06% 
CD.H09 Mar 2009 1.0927 1.0927 1.0927 1.0348 +0.0006 +0.06% 

Other combinations: (http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies)

Market              Open    High     Low    Last   Change     Pct 
AUSTRALIAN $/CANADIAN $ (NYBOT:AS)
AS.Z07 Dec 2007 0.87540 0.87540 0.87540 0.86615 +0.00735 +0.85%  
AUSTRALIAN $/US$ (NYBOT:AU)
AU.Z07 Dec 2007 0.89905 0.89905 0.89905 0.89905 +0.00830 +0.92%  
CANADIAN $/JAPANESE YEN (NYBOT:HY)
HY.Z07 Dec 2007 124.260 124.260 123.520 115.315 +0.975 +0.85%  
EURO/AUSTRALIAN $ (NYBOT:RA)
RA.Z07 Dec 2007 1.6348 1.6348 1.6348 1.6315 -0.0081 -0.50%  
EURO/BRITISH POUND (NYBOT:GB)
GB.Z07 Dec 2007 0.71480 0.71690 0.71340 0.71500 +0.00075 +0.11%   
EURO/CANADIAN $ (NYBOT:EP)
EP.Z07 Dec 2007 1.4272 1.4276 1.4272 1.4305 +0.0173 +1.22%  
EURO/JAPANESE YEN (NYBOT:EJ)
EJ.Z07 Dec 2007 162.880 162.880 161.090 161.090 -1.895 -1.16%   
EURO/US$ (LARGE) (NYBOT:EU)
EU.Z07 Dec 2007 1.46280 1.46280 1.46280 1.46280 -0.00405 -0.28%  

Blather (from http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

The December Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends this week's breakout below the 20-day moving average crossing at 104.93. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off last week's high, reaction low crossing at 101.79 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 105.79 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 104.93. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 105.79 First support is the overnight low crossing at 102.70. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 101.79.


Analysis

Yeah, I heard on the drive-in that it was around $1.02. I'm not the least bit surprised. I'm calling for the slide to stop at parity.

It was at $1.09 last Wednesday.

While most of us -- even bankers -- were caught off guard by the magnitude of the meltdown, others rubbed their hands together in gleeful anticipation of a windfall.

Latest Market Update
November 15, 2007 -- 11:30 ET
The indices are trading near the unchanged mark with neither buyers nor sellers showing a great deal of conviction. Yesterday traded in a similar fashion, and then had a broad-based late-day sell-off.

Standard &... More

IndexBy: Jon Markman

Any journalist worth his weight in cigarette stubs knows that every financial crisis must have villains: a cabal of cranky, omniscient, uncaring old men pushing buttons that drive stocks and home values down, ruin families' retirement plans and make kids cry. Picture bank tycoon Henry Potter in "It's a Wonderful Life," described as "the richest and meanest man in the county," or Mr. Dawes in "Mary Poppins," who fires Jane and Michael's father after he accidentally causes a run on the bank.

Yet the curious thing about our very own nonfiction financial crisis today is that the bankers are themselves victims, even if they're not entirely blameless. One-time "masters of the universe" have gone from superheroes to village idiots, as Bear Stearns (BSC, news, msgs) shares have plunged 40% this year, Merrill Lynch (MER, news, msgs) is down 38% and Washington Mutual (WM, news, msgs) is down 50%.

Talk back: Who do you see as villains and victims in the credit crisis?

And the villains? That's a bit more complicated. But one key dramatic element in all of this is that there is indeed a group of increasingly rich individuals who wanted the current credit meltdown to happen. They had a plan. They're sticking with it. And it's working.

Too low, too long
To understand the bad guys' game, you'll need a bit of background. First, it's critical to keep in mind that the debt markets are at least 10 times larger than the stock market and yet are largely unseen and greatly misunderstood. Virtually all important day-to-day financing of governments, companies and pension funds happens with credit instruments due to expectations that loans will be repaid on a contracted schedule with interest. Stocks are a frivolous afterthought in the world of corporate finance -- speculative playthings.

Company Focus: Who's to blame for the mortgage mess?

Banks for decades have made their profits by borrowing money cheaply from passbook savers and lending it at higher rates to companies. Pension funds likewise make profits by lending employees' savings to companies. This works great when there's a big differential between incoming short rates and outgoing long rates, but when the "spread" narrows, there's trouble.

More from MSN Money
Danger: 25 stocks to avoid now
Are we headed for an epic bear market?
What the big banks aren't telling you -- yet
Recession or not, here's a game plan
Stage is set for a stock crash


In the aftermath of the turn-of-the-century bear market, recession and the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, the Federal Reserve, led by Alan Greenspan, upset this rich dynamic by slashing interest rates to superlow levels in an effort to stimulate commercial and individual investment. That put the economy back on its feet by 2003, but holding rates low for a long time had the unfortunate effect of making it hard for banks and pension funds to profit.

Bankers scrambled for innovative ways to create income-generating instruments. They hit ultimately upon the idea of encouraging low-income Americans to borrow from them to buy houses, clothes, cars and electronics, and then piled those shaky new income streams into packages known as asset-backed securities, which were themselves used as collateral to create another high-yielding type of debt known as collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs. Banks took big fees at every step along the way, putting rocket boosters on their profitability.

Those exotic instruments were so avidly scooped up by Asian and Mideast sovereign and pension-fund managers -- who had been ravenous for high-yield places to store and grow their mounting piles of money amid an emerging-markets boom -- that financial engineers figured they should take it a step or two further. Nothing succeeds like excess, right?

So they encouraged banks to use the CDOs as collateral for "doubled" and "cubed" CDOs, and then piled those into new financial warehouses called structured investment vehicles, or SIVs, that were themselves used as collateral for such seemingly safe instruments as the sort of short-term commercial paper that underlies money-market funds. Top bankers at Merrill and Citigroup (C, news, msgs) who had once shunned such risky paths were forced to get in on the action and become major players.

Huffing and puffing
Now here is where the villains come in. All of these instruments rely on confidence for their very existence. Commercial paper could exist only if brokers believed SIVs were valued properly, and SIVs could exist only if their managers believed their underlying CDOs were valued right, and CDOs could exist only if their managers believed the underlying loans were properly valued, and so on.

Confidence is the heart and soul of credit markets, as unlike stocks, no promises of future growth will suffice -- only streams if cold, hard cash will do.

Now it turns out that slowly emerging at this time were a group of hedge-fund managers running their money in a style known as credit arbitrage who came to believe that these towers of debt were houses of cards just waiting to be pushed over. But how? There are no straightforward ways to short-sell these kinds of instruments.

Continued: Destroying confidence

follow the link for more:

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/SuperModels/CreditPainIsGainForASelectFew.aspx

Please excuse my french:mad:

our little bankruptcy (Ch.7) caused them a touch of pain... asshats. Final papers on it came through at the end of this summer. We are free!

Well, almost. Still owe on small mortgage and owe Mom for the bankruptcy fees. Now to get along living on Hubby's $14K/yr disability.

If read to the very end, it reveals the "Father of the CDO". Careful, the name is very familiar.

:scared:

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/SuperModels/AreWeHeadedForAnEpicBearMarket.aspx

Last I saw, a couple of years ago, Coke was still flowing pretty freely in the City of London...

Is this true? Or a hoax? FBI Raids Liberty Dollar

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.rabidquill.com/?p=17

Frontal Assault on Freedom: FBI Raids Liberty Dollar
Posted by BJT on Nov 15, 2007
Read this email closely. I just got it this morning. Those of you who consider the gold standard a quaint anachronism, pay extra close attention. If Ron Paul supporters, gold standard advocates and the Liberty Dollar were nothing but harmless kooks, why would the FBI raid their offices when no crime was ever committed? This is a currency competing with the USD, yes, but they never, but never make the claim that it is legal tender or anything other than what it is: private currency. And private currencies are numerous in the USA.

No. This raid happened because the Liberty Dollar, the second most popular currency in the country, threatens to usurp the entrenched power of the Fed’s Almighty Dollar. People can see the buying power of the greenback eroding, and they will choose something else if it is available, and the Liberty Dollar is ready and waiting. And that’s why the government must resort to force in order to protect its stranglehold on the economy.

From Liberty Dollar Headquarters:
Dear Liberty Dollar Supporters:

I sincerely regret to inform you that about 8:00 this morning a dozen FBI and Secret Service agents raided the Liberty Dollar office in Evansville.

For approximately six hours they took all the gold, all the silver, all the platinum and almost two tons of Ron Paul Dollars that where just delivered last Friday. They also took all the files, all the computers and froze our bank accounts.

We have no money. We have no products. We have no records to even know what was ordered or what you are owed. We have nothing but the will to push forward and overcome this massive assault on our liberty and our right to have real money as defined by the US Constitution. We should not to be defrauded by the fake government money.

But to make matters worse, all the gold and silver that backs up the paper certificates and digital currency held in the vault at Sunshine Mint has also been confiscated. Even the dies for mint the Gold and Silver Libertys have been taken.

This in spite of the fact that Edmond C. Moy, the Director of the Mint, acknowledged in a letter to a US Senator that the paper certificates did not violate Section 486 and were not illegal. But the FBI and Services took all the paper currency too.

The possibility of such action was the reason the Liberty Dollar was designed so that the vast majority of the money was in specie form and in the people’s hands. Of the $20 million Liberty Dollars, only about a million is in paper or digital form.

I regret that if you are due an order. It may be some time until it will be filled… if ever… it now all depends on our actions.

Everyone who has an unfulfilled order or has digital or paper currency should band together for a class action suit and demand redemption. We cannot allow the government to steal our money! Please don’t let this happen!!! Many of you read the articles quoting the government and Federal Reserve officials that the Liberty Dollar was legal. You did nothing wrong. You are legally entitled to your property. Let us use this terrible act to band together and further our goal – to return America to a value based currency.

Please forward this important Alert… so everyone who possess or use the Liberty Dollar is aware of the situation.

Please click HERE to sign up for the class action lawsuit and get your property back!

If the above link does not work you can access the page by copying the following into your web browser. http://www.libertydollar.org/classaction/index.php

Thanks again for your support at this darkest time as the damn government and their dollar sinks to a new low.

Bernard von NotHaus

Monetary Architect
__________________

with fraud and conspiracy investigations. The Houston Press did a story on it recently....I'll look it up.


Here it is....

http://www.houstonpress.com/2007-07-19/news/texas-coin-companies-target-elderly-investors/

It is a different company but they may be cracking down on the industry.

FBI Agent Wendy Osborne, a spokeswoman for the FBI's Indianapolis office, directed all questions on the raid to the Western District of North Carolina U.S. Attorney's Office. A spokeswoman there said she had no information on the investigation.

Liberty Dollar employees were at the office this morning cleaning up after the raid. They referred all questions to von NotHaus.

http://www.courierpress.com/news/2007/nov/15/liberty-dollar-office-raided/

they don't want us to have 'real money' just those worthless 'Federal Reserve Notes' we carry around in our wallet. Then it is a matter of us 'not respecting their AUTHORITY' (she says in her best Cartman imitation), not a case of scaming folks.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/11/14/news/companies/ubs_writedown/index.htm?postversion=2007111507

http://www.ubs.com/1/e/about/executivebodies/boardofdirectors.html

I never liked UBS, preferring CS. However, based (only) on past experience (especially, SGS - and results at Fiat have been quite amazing), wherever Sergio Marchione is to be found may not be a bad place to place a bet...

edit: Ah, here he is. Looks like he has something to with "vice" involving "key clients" (<- joke :silly: ).
http://www.ubs.com/1/e/about/executivebodies/seniorleadership/vicechairmen.html

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/newstex/AFX-0013-21019328.htm

Multinational Corps are just that multinational and have NO nations (or workers) best interest at heart. They buy our 'political leaders' for peanuts and we are sold into wage slavery.

That bears repeating...
Multinationals have no workers best interest at heart.

A seemless transition.

She'll look anti-corporate compared to *, but she'll still know where her real support is coming from. Not the people, I assure you of that.

YIKES!!!!!!!!!

:kick:

the housing market wasn't overbuilt with McMansions like it is now......
The similarities...your average worker couldn't afford to buy a house.

I'm assuming that there is NO WAY a CNBC host said that.

Had to have been a guest of some sort, via video.

If a host on CNBC had said that, he better get his resume ready. They only like POSITIVE talk for their Spinsters.

You know, stuff like "turning the corner," "bottoming out," "recovery."

I do not know her name but she is on right now FYI.

It was also on the CNBC crawler btw. :scared:

:kick:

Dow 13,133.30 -97.71
Nasdaq 2,622.95 -21.37
S&P 500 1,454.09 -16.49
10 YR 4.16% -0.11
Oil $93.43 $-0.66
Gold $787.30 $-27.40


DJIA was down -172 just about 5-10 min. ago!

http://money.cnn.com/2007/11/15/news/companies/ge_fund.ap/index.htm?postversion=2007111515

Dow 13,110.05 120.96 (0.91%)
Nasdaq 2,618.51 25.81 (0.98%)
S&P 500 1,451.15 19.43 (1.32%)
10-Yr Bond 4.159% 0.11

NYSE Volume 3,982,038,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,344,953,500

4:20 pm : Similar to Wednesday, a late-day sell-off pushed the indices lower on Thursday. The decline was led by the financial sector as negative news regarding the credit market eventually overshadowed mostly in-line economic data.

There were further financial company write-downs making headlines this morning. London-based Barclays (BCS 43.00, -0.88) announced a $2.7 billion write-off. In addition, The Wall Street Journal reported that UBS may need to take a $7 billion write-off. The paper also reported that GMAC's mortgage unit ResCap may need an equity injection.

Comments from Wells Fargo (WFC 31.97, -1.28) CEO John Stumpf at a Merrill Lynch conference put additional pressure on financials. Specifically, Reuters reported that Stumpf said "We have not seen a nationwide decline in housing like this since the Great Depression." He added, "I don't think we're in the ninth inning of unwinding this," indicating that the market has not reached a bottom.

The financial sector (-3.1%) plummeted late in the session as it eventually succumbed to fears of additional write-downs and worries that the credit crisis is not behind the market. It finished the day as the main laggard.

Defensive sectors were in favor on Thursday as uncertain investors looked for safety. The utilities (+0.2%), telecom (-0.5%), consumer staples (-0.2%) and healthcare (-0.3%) sectors outperformed on a relative basis. In addition, as equities sold off, the bond market rallied.

On the economic front, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showed no sign of significant inflationary pressure and no uptrend. The October core CPI rose by 0.2% for the fifth straight month, which was in-line with economists' expectations. This leaves the year-over-year increase at a low 2.2%. Total CPI increased at 0.3%, which was also spot-on with expectations.

The weekly initial jobless claims increased to 339,000 from 319,000 the week before (325,000 consensus). Despite claims rising, they are still low at a historical standpoint, and certainly do not reflect the jobless claims typically associated with recessions.

Two regional manufacturing surveys were released today, the Empire State Index and the Philadelphia Fed, both topped economists expectations.

The Energy Information Administration reported that for the week ended Nov. 9 crude oil had a build of just over 2.8 million barrels. Analysts expected a draw of 750,000. The report caused oil prices to plummet 2%, but they eventually recovered to finish down only 0.7% to $93.47 per barrel.

Commodities as a whole declined today, as indicated by the 1.4% drop in the CRB Index. Specifically, precious metals had a 3.6% drop. DJ30 -120.96 NASDAQ -25.81 SP500 -19.43 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2134/831/2.34 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2556/718/1.47 bln

3:35 pm : Selling pressure faded as the indices bounced off their lows, but a renewed wave of selling interest pushes the indices back toward their intraday lows. Continued worries of subprime related losses are playing a large role in the financial sector's (-3.0%) weakness.

Only the utilties sector (+0.3%) remains in the green. Of note, the energy sector (-2.6%) has not recovered along with crude oil prices (-0.6%).DJ30 -127.30 NASDAQ -31.18 SP500 -20.74 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2239/724/1.79 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2670/602/977 mln

3:05 pm : The stock market falls to fresh intraday lows as the financial sector (-3.4%) extends its losses. Specifically, there is weakness in the thrifts & mortgages group (-6.3%), as Fannie Mae (FNM 43.80, -4.0) and Freddie Mac (42.03, -2.17) get sold off.

Kansas Fed president Thomas Hoeing says the impact of housing on the economy is wider than its mere 6% share of GDP. He also says the decline in U.S. housing prices has not been seen since the early 1990s.

Separately, private-label maker Ralcorp Holdings (RAH 61.11, +5.64) announced today that it has signed a definitive agreement to integrate Kraft's (KFT 32.47, -0.51) Post cereal business into its operations in an all-stock merger. The transaction carries an approximate $2.6 billion value, including the issuance and assumption of roughly $950 million of debt. The deal is subject to customary closing conditions, but is expected to close in mid-2008. DJ30 -113.65 NASDAQ -32.73 SP500 -19.86 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2109/828/1.60 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2459/784/861 mln