Waiting for a Shi'ite Civil War

Source: time



Waiting for a Shi'ite Civil War
By CHARLES CRAIN/BAGHDAD
Thu Nov 15, 3:15 AM ET



On Sunday Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki hailed a "remarkable" decline in violence, saying the country may have finally moved beyond the Sunni-Shi'a sectarian conflict. While that level of optimism may be premature, the security situation has improved dramatically in recent months.



But with sectarian violence waning for the time being, the stage may be set for an escalation of the simmering battle among Shi'ites for control of southern Iraq. In Najaf, the spiritual center of Shi'ite Iraq, public displays of respect and cooperation mask an often violent competition between rival factions. Since shortly after the American invasion The Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC) - known until May 2007 as the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, or SCIRI - has clashed, often violently, with followers of the Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr. This summer Sadr announced a "freeze" in the activities of his Mahdi Army militia and the two sides have reached an uneasy truce. But residents in Najaf say the rivalry has simply gone underground. "The relationship between the two sides in the media is the opposite of reality," says a history professor who teaches near Najaf (concerned for his safety, he asked that his full name not be used). "Their relationship on the streets is tense, and can reach the level of an explosion."


So far this fall the violence has not boiled over again into pitched battles, as it has several times in the past across southern Iraq. But residents in Najaf say militias loyal to SIIC and the Sadrists are engaged in more targeted violence. Aysser Ali, 35, said kidnappings and assassinations are the tactics of choice for now. "I would believe that nobody goes out of his house without thinking that somebody will come and shoot him in the head," Ali says. Still, he says he is hopeful that the public's growing weariness of militia violence will eventually calm the situation.


But another Najaf resident, Hassan Kammona, says that neither the Sadrists nor SIIC were doing enough to rein in their foot soldiers. "If the people in charge of security are serious - not just for Najaf but for all of Iraq - they have to educate their followers how to respect the law," he says.


Read more: http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/20071115/wl_time/waitingforashiitecivilwar

You're dealing with matters of religion. Islam teaches that religion takes precedent over all sectarian laws. Good luck in getting the Shia to play nice with each other.

Slightly off topic: Did you see the Washington Post article detailing the Iraqi Shia Government's failure to reach out to their Sunni brethren. Wonder when the top is going to fly off that tea pot?

Basically Sadr represents on group of Shiites who tend to be the urban poor. The SIIC is tied in with those arab tribes with historical strong ties with Iran (Some of these ties can be traced to Roman times, when Barsa and southern Iraq was under the Control of the then Persian Empire, while Kurdistan and those parts of Iraq in the Northwest came under Roman Rule. When both empires collapsed, The Arabs tended to control Iraq from Baghdad, but the call to both Iran and Right is now Turkey remained strong. This ended with the Mongolian Sacking of Baghdad in 1258. The Ottoman then took over the remains of the Byzantine Empire (Which in turn had been the Greek Remains of the Roman Empire) and Baghdad. The South returned to Iran as a source of influence, while Baghdad became the Eastern Capital of the Ottoman Empire.

Iraq has always been pulled in these two directions (and occasionally a third, depending on how powerful Egypt was at any one time). The tribes of Iraq are used to using these three middle-east superpowers for their own purposes. This has been done for at least 3000 years. The tribes are use to it, and are doing it today. All of the tribes may month Islamic terms, but what is important is how does any action support the tribe? We will NOT go into the Shiite tribes backing the US occupation (Till such support is not longer in that Tribes benefit, then support will be dropped).

In fact some of the Tribes in the Sunni West have members in Saudi Arabia. This complicates the situation for unlike Europeans who tend to identify themselves by their nationality/home country, Arabs tend to view themselves first as a member of their tribe AND then as an arab (Notice "Iraq" is NOT factor, it is just a European imposition on the tribes, that the Tribes accept since the Iraq Government does exist, but unless force to do so, the Tribal members do not view Iraq as something for fight FOR).

Arabs have a greater sense of being an "Arab" then a European has at being a "European" and less sense of being an "Iraqi" then a European sense of being a "German", "Frenchman" or an "Italian" for example. At the same time such a Arab is identifies himself even more with his tribe.

My point is what is going on in Iraq is the Iraqi Tribes are fighting/negotiating between themselves on what tribe will get what. Shiite-Sunni disputes are secondary, but often indicants historical allies between tribes (Shiites tend to ally with Shiites, Sunni tribes with Sunni). Thus you see the wider Sunni-Shiite war, but within each group you have infighting. One Shiite Tribes vs another Shiite tribe (and Sunni tribes vs Sunni Tribes).

This tribal attitude was ignored by the US when we invaded, and it appears the US still have not come to fully understand how the tribes interact with each other. These tribes have learn to live with each other for thousands of years, 1300 since the time of Mohammad. At the same time the tribes have constantly fought each other for better positions versa each other. When you have a change in the balance of power. such as the US invading, the tribes have to re-balance the situation until balance is once again meet. Furthermore each tribe knows the US will pull out sooner or later, and while the US is in Iraq, why not use the US to gain an advantage over another tribe? That is what is going on, and will continue till we pull out and the tribes have to learn to live together without the US being in Iraq.