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Wall Street has financed and run the GOP since the 1850s. Mark Hanna, the head of the GOP around 1900 is reported to have said "The art of Politics is first convincing the Rich to give you money to protect them from the poor, then to convince the poor to vote for you to protect them from the Rich" (Paraphrase only, exact quote escapes me). In many ways the GOP has followed this policy form the 1850s till today, i.e. Get money from the Rich to pay for ads to tell the poor to vote GOP. As long as Wall Street elites saw that it was always one of themselves OR someone their trusted received the GOP nomination the Elites were contended with this situation (Even Theodore Roosevelt was viewed as one of the elite, but one that saw changes had to be done, as explained by a quote from him at a party "You either agree to what I am doing, or more radical people will get in charge and do things even worse" (Paraphrase exact quote escape me).
In the 1960s the GOP decided to adopt Nixon's Southern Strategy, pick up the South as GOP, given that the Democrats came to be viewed as the party of Black Civil Rights (In the 1950s over a 1/3 of the blacks of the US voted for Eisenhower, 1/3 voted AGAINST FDR do to the long history of Democratic opposition to Civil Rights, that started to change under Truman, who received moe black votes than any previous Democratic Candidate, and escalated under Kennedy and Johnson with their support for the Civil Rights Movement). This shift on positions as to the rights of blacks lead to a shift in the political mix of both US political parties. The Democrats went into a long decline as they slowly lost most of the South. The GOP went expanded as the South became more and more GOP friendly, while they retained their Northern Supporters. This lead to the Reagan Victory in 1980 and the subsequent GOP domination of the Presidency (Except for 1993-2001 and Clinton) and finally Control of Congress from 1996 till 2007 (Remember elections are held in the year before the person takes office, so 2008 election is for the 2009-2011 term of Office).
Since 2000, Northern support for the GOP has slipped. The growth in Southern Support for the GOP stopped. This indicated a switched to the Democratic party that has NOT been seen since the large Cities abandoned the GOP and went Democratic in the 1930s. Suburban GOP voters have slowly abandoned the GOP as the GOP embraced ideas from it new Southern Supporters (i.e. Suburban Voters want to have access to Abortion clinics, while conservative Southern want to ban them, Southern Voters want taxes to be low, even if that means no services, Suburban voters are willing to pay higher taxes to increase or maintain Government services). Furthermore the jump in the economy under Clinton increased income for both inner city and Suburban residents, thus reducing the Resistance to higher taxes.
Lets look at the GOP coalition at the present time. The largest single voting group are the Religious Right, concentrated in the South but having influence elsewhere. While the Religious Right support the war in Iraq and oppose Abortion, the do favor higher taxes for services and to pay for the war (There are some well-known exceptions to this rule, but this is true of the membership of the religious right, but less true of its national leadership). This group has been waiting since 1980 for a constitutional amendment to ban abortion, but even when the GOP controlled both Houses it was NOT passed or even proposed (The President has NO activity in the Constitutional amendment process so the fact Clinton was President had no affect on this). These group kept waiting for the GOP to find the Right time to propose the amendment, but it never seems to come. The GOP leadership kept saying it was not the right time for such an amendment, but the leadership did NOT even propose such an amendment. The GOP line was they did NOT have the 2/3 votes needed to pass it, but the Religious right wing retorted and ask for a vote anyway. The GOP leadership were afraid of turning off Suburban voters by such a vote, just keep the amendment bottled up in Committee, let enough Democrats would vote for it and see in pass both houses (No harm to the Democrats to vote for it, they were the minority party at that time). This frustrated the Religious Right and the decision of the Religious Right NOT to come out and vote in 2006 permitted the Democrats to win congress that year.
Basically the Religious Right is burned out and unless the GOP nominates someone it likes (Huckabee) the religious Right will just sit out the election. On the other hand the Ruling Elite not only wants abortion rights to keep suburban voters happy, they want tax cuts at all costs, the Religious Right is willing to support HIGHER taxes to support the war in Iraq and Social Services, both requiring higher taxes thus the Religious right is willing to vote for higher taxes. The Religious Right know that if the Democrats get in NO abortion amendment is possible, but since none is forthcoming, except in talk, from the GOP what is the harm leaving the Democrats in? Especially given the Religious right is willing to vote for higher taxes, something the ruling elites of the GOP oppose.
Second, is the Northern Rural Republican voter. He is NOT the racist, anti-government fanatic you find in the rural South (Through you see such fanatics in both rural area, but just much more in the SOuth then the Rest of the Rural areas of this Country). The rural northern WANTS good roads, good schools for his kids, access to markets, and is willing to pay taxes for such actions. The GOP is giving him NOTHING, even the proposed tax cut gives little to such rural northerns (And let me say, the Mid-South is more like the Rural North than the Deep South, except it has been Democratic not Republican since the Civil War). The present war, economy, price of oil, and how each have been ignored by the GOP has turned this group against the GOP leadership.
Suburban American is the most Solid Base for the GOP, but it has been contested between the two parties since at least 1960. IT tends to be 50/50 and as such important in deciding who wins, but is NOT a base element like the Rural North has been to the GOP since the Civil War, or like the Rural South has slowly become GOP since the 1960s, or like the inner City has been solidly Democratic since the 1950s. Many campaigns will be won in suburban america if both parties can keep their base up, but as seen above the GOP has been failing, while the Democratic have been very successful at getting its base out.
As to the GOP itself, the Religious Right supports Huckabee. The Ruling Elite Supports Giuliani. Romney seems to have support of Suburban GOPers, with McCain getting the pro-War, pro-military clique of the GOP. These groups are at each other's throats, but the GOP can NOT win unless ALL of them support the nominee. The Ruling Right wants Giuliani for he represents want they want, a pro-wall street government. The Religious Right wants Huckabee, for he supports what they want, a ban on abortion and increase funding (and increase taxes to pay for it) for social services to help their communities. The pro-military want McCain for given a choice between Social Security and National Defense he will opt for National Defense (The Religious Right will opt for Social Security unless the US is directly attacks, an unlikely event). Romney
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