Super Tuesday won't decide nominations

Source: AP

WASHINGTON - Don't look to crown any presidential nominees on Super Tuesday. The race for delegates is so close in both parties that it is mathematically impossible for any candidate to lock up the nomination on Feb. 5, according to an Associated Press analysis of the states in play that day.

"A lot of people were predicting that this presidential election on both sides was going to be this massive sprint that ended on Feb. 5," said Jenny Backus, a Democratic consultant who is not affiliated with any candidate. Now it's looking as if the primaries after Super Tuesday — including such big, delegate-rich states as Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania — could grow in importance.

"Maybe some states were better off waiting," said Backus.

That doesn't mean Super Tuesday won't be super after all. Voters in more than 20 states will go to the polls on the biggest day of the primary campaign, and thousands of delegates will be at stake.

But it's possible Feb. 5 might not even produce clear front-runners.



Read more: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080124/ap_on_el_pr/super_tuesday_not_over

I can't believe this thing is actually going to keep going.

Time for DU to up it's ad rates. :-)

Basically, the point they are making is that nobody can make it all the way to 2025 on Feb 5. Fair enough.



What this analysis ignores is that if one candidate dominates the Feb 5 primaries, the campaign would be effectively over.

Still, at this point there is a good chance that no candidate will win decisively on Feb 5, which mean the campaign keeps going.

(Which would prolong the ugliness here on DU. But I gotta admit I do find the campaign itself to be very exciting to watch.)

If the primaries are close, even with one candidate winning a majority of them, it leaves open the possibility of momentum shifts and unpredictable events over the next few months, with states voting through, what, June?

But yes, if one candidate wins most of the states with large majorities, the other 2 candidates would probably run out of money and momentum pretty quickly.

Maybe just wishful thinking on my part since my primary isn't until May. :-)

NGU.

:D

In Ohio,a friend of mine is a super-delegate and was coverly smoozed by both Obama and Clinton this week.

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/21/debate.transcript/index.html

;-)

STFU.

I said please.

:)

NOW!

It would had given the voters to know the candidates better and possibly allow more of the candidates to stay in the race longer and campaign more in each of the states.

that states moved up their primaries to have more of a say on who ends up with the nomination, but in this cycle, with the 3 good competitive candidates, it would have been great to have the primaries more spread out.

I knew it.

Unlike Fred Thompson, Lee Mercer is not a quitter.

with a darkhorse candidate coming down the stretch with a win. We might get Biden, Dodd, or Kucinich yet!

I will put my Howard Dean sign back out in the yard!!

I'm dreaming of a brokered convention too.

Biden would completely make the GOP shit in their pants, especially McCain.

yeah feb 5th won't decide anything says the corporate media, because if you believe that it will, we will lose market share and we can't have that now, can we?

after super duper, tsunami, big ass tuesday (or whatever they are calling it now) is over, we will have our leader. Whom ever that is.

this is nothing more that the panic story of a media that doesn't want the election year gravy train to end.

I can't wait for the next political campaign season to start...jan. 21, 2009.

sigh.

But it'll probably end a campaign or 2...like Giuliani's, possibly.

Go back to your consulting business, Rudy, and take the gold digger with you. Please.

If Obama were to pull off an upset and take, say, California, things could well remain in flux until the convention.

That was about 367 delegates (including super delegates) that had to be reallocated to the other states. So, this will make the primary go longer. Edwards task will be to stay above 15% to win delegates. I think it will go well past March and most likely all the way to the convention. This measn that I get to have my vote count in March. Perhaps a brokered convention. So, that would be exciting! Think Dean or Gore. :)

It will be nice, for once, that all won't be decided by Iowans and New Hampsters. ;-) Viva Democracy!

Although the primaries are getting to me, as a political junkie AND an American I think this is a good thing. I never liked the media meme that Iowa and New Hampshire got a disproportionate say in the primaries. The media has tried hard to anoint a candidate, and now looks ridiculous.

Let's hear it for democracy!

I hadn't seen that portrait yet...very nice. :)

It's a very beautiful photo.

out of all the people I know, I found one 35 year old guy who supports Hillary in DFW....

I am allowed to have the illusion to vote for. Then when it is all said and done, the corporations are going to install who ever they want. If you lived in Florida like I do, then you would understand how it all truly works. Wake me up when the board of of directors for the Incorporated States of America has decided who the next CEO will be.

:popcorn: