STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday February 11

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday February 11, 2008

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 345
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2577 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2303 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2594
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON February 8, 2008

Dow... 12,182.13 -64.87 (-0.53%)
Nasdaq... 2,304.85 +11.82 (+0.52%)
S&P 500... 1,331.29 -5.62 (-0.42%)
Gold future... 922.30 +12.30 (+1.33%)
30-Year Bond 4.44% -0.06 (-1.36%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.65% -0.08 (-2.19%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact actionpost@legitgov.org

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

:hug: :hug:

..edited to show a new addition..

:D


:hi:

thanks bunches!

Off topic of stocks, but on topic of hearts and later eggses....

Our pagan history lesson for today:

Unlike other holidays which have animal associations (Halloween's black cats, Easter's Bunny) seemingly Valentines has no critters associated.

Ah, but we forget the love birds.

Usually bluebirds (of happiness?) twittering around the heads of whatever youth is smitten by their lover fair.

When modern folk learn about these associations they are in the abstract. Bunnies are Easter symbols because somewhere in history, they somehow (as if by chance) became associated.

But if you think about these assoications as primers. Basic pre-literate texts for passing along information that potentially has important survival ramifications, these symbols become much richer and more resonant.

There is a physiological effect of light on the neurochemical response of every living creature. In general, we seek light. Animals, including humans, who don't get enough sunlight on their retinas and on their skin, suffer enochrine imbalances and, in humans (and probably other critters to be honest) depression. The increasing light from it's ebb at Winter Solstice tells our brains, which tells our bodies, that it is time to..... wake up, stir, move around, play in the dirt (plant some stuff).

In birds it tells them it is safe to begin laying eggs. That there will be green stuff soon. That there will be delicious bugs and seeds to feed little gaping mouths.

Until mid February, there is not enough light to signal these neuro-chemical changes. By then, the light has become so strong, that the mating instinct begins to emerge in our feathered friends. And then, there were love birds.

Judeo-Christian holidays aside, by the time Oester (the original Easter, a Celtic Goddess celebrating Spring) rolls around, there are eggs and bunnies aplenty! Good eatin', let's celebrate!

I offer this little trifle as a thank you for my abstracted red shape, symbolising emotional connection. (we will save the historic and cultural associations of the shape for another day).

Have fun today as you follow the bouncing ball.

Those little baby/bird hybrids are most definitely a Pagan invention... Although, they've been cast in with
Angels. They are separate critters. :D

You and the Marketeers are much loved at DU for your high-quality contributions to the dialogue every business day. :toast:

Julie

I suspect they are from the Marketeer community. ;-)

Julie

And thank you to the
rest of the Stock Market
Watch crew.

:yourock:

It's very kind of you to say so!

:donut: and lurkers. Years ago, I heard a piece on the radio about politicians going to senior center trying to get votes. One elderly ladie made me laugh when she said...'If they think you can vote, they come by and 'lick you up' real good. Even the reporter seemed amused. She went on talking about being licked up, and how she was wise to that.

Well here in Texas, with our late primary-I am getting prepared for a tongue bath(eewh). I'm still voting for Edwards and the fact that he is now meeting with Obama gives me an inkling that they are noticing Edwards delegate count and it gives him some leverage to make his case. I have the feeling that Edwards will make a recommendation soon.

It will be an interesting convention if we don't have a clear cut winner. But I think, esp with Edwards delegates in a close race, we won't be nearly as divided as the press makes us out to be.

Happy Hunting and watch out for the bears.

PS. Thanks for my valentine!!!

:hangover:

I don't think the Dems are as divided as the Corporate Media would make it sound.
It's more of an internal domestic dispute... But, the second an outside party tries
to play, watch out! The ONE thing just about everyone here agrees on is... NO MORE OF WHAT WE
HAD BEFORE! (Hey, that rhymes!) :)

But, the Corporate Media needs "bread and circuses" to serve up numbers to their corporate masters.

The Fed Cuts Rates and Saves World From Financial Meltdown?

Just as the equity markets were pushing into their anticipated turn point in late January, the Fed makes a 75 basis point cut of the Discount rate. This was the most aggressive rate cut since August of 1982. The very next week at the regularly scheduled Fed meeting they cut yet another 50 basis points. To hear the spin from the mainstream, these cuts were done to save the equity markets from the woes that first began in August. I have heard many of the analysts and commentators explain why the bottom is now in and how the Fed has finally made everything alright.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

SINGAPORE - Oil prices fell Monday, retreating after spiking to almost $93 a barrel on Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's threat to cut off oil sales to the United States in retaliation for legal moves by Exxon Mobil Corp. to seize some of his country's assets.

Light, sweet crude for March delivery lost 37 cents to $91.40 a barrel in Asian electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by late afternoon in Singapore, after earlier rising as high as $92.71 a barrel in the after-hours session.

The spike came after Chavez on Sunday accused the Irving, Texas-based oil company of acting in concert with Washington, and vowed that "the outlaws of Exxon Mobil will never again rob us."

Exxon Mobil has gone after the assets of Venezuelan state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA in U.S., British and Dutch courts in challenges to the nationalization of a multibillion dollar oil project by Chavez's government. A British court has issued an injunction "freezing" as much as $12 billion in assets.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

CARACAS, VENEZUELA -- Exxon Mobil Corp. won a round in its bitter fight against Venezuela's state oil company Thursday as courts in several countries said they would freeze $12 billion in international assets held by Petroleos de Venezuela.

Last year, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez nationalized a heavy oil field in eastern Venezuela, and Exxon Mobil has been seeking to recover the value of its investment in the site ever since. Exxon Mobil, as well as ConocoPhillips, abandoned projects in the country rather than agree to Chavez's demands to cede majority ownership to Petroleos de Venezuela, known as PDVSA.

Irving, Texas-based Exxon Mobil said Thursday that U.S., British and Dutch courts had approved its request to block the Venezuelan oil giant from "disposing of its assets worldwide valued at $12 billion." The action comes amid reports that the oil company that is Chavez's chief source of money is short of cash and could be looking to sell assets.

News emerged this week that Petroleos had to renegotiate a $1.1-billion loan arranged by the French bank BNP Paribas that was due at the end of 2007. Analysts say the oil company may be in a cash crunch because of rising overhead and declining production. Petroleos officials did not respond to a request for comment Thursday.

.....

Exxon Mobil's Cerro Negro field was producing an average of 115,000 barrels a day in the months before Chavez nationalized it. Although the field represented only about 2% of the company's worldwide production, it had spent billions to pump and process oil with the consistency of tar. Exxon Mobil is now seeking compensation through arbitration, but apparently is skeptical about its prospects and is seeking action by U.S., Dutch and British courts to freeze Petroleos' international assets. The courts' decisions could allow Exxon Mobil to pursue control of Petroleos' foreign assets.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-exxon8feb08,1,6697341.story

CARACAS, Feb 11 (Reuters) - Venezuela has begun moving oil revenue into Swiss banks to avoid a possible seizure of funds by Exxon Mobil in a legal tussle that pits leftist anti-U.S. President Hugo Chavez against America's biggest company.

...

Traders told Reuters that PDVSA had told clients all of their payments should be made to UBS (UBSN.VX: Quote, Profile, Research) bank in Switzerland, days after Exxon lawyers told Dutch Antilles banks that PDVSA accounts would have to maintain their existing balances.

"It all has to go to UBS in Switzerland now," said one trader who asked not to be identified because of the sensitive financial nature of his comments. A PDVSA spokesman said he did not have immediate comment on the issue.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idLTAN1162822120080211?rpc=44

BEIJING - Fighting stubbornly high inflation, China's leaders dusted off a blunt tool from its pre-market reform era and commanded utility companies to freeze electricity prices.

Households got temporary relief after that September order, but the capitalist-style economy produced unwanted consequences. Coal shortages cropped up as power companies cut back on buying and mines reduced production. Freak snowstorms over the past month caught power plants with dangerously low stocks, resulting in blackouts and factory shutdowns.

While the easy ability to rule by fiat often makes the communist government appear nimbly responsive to crises, economists warn that the approach does not always work in an economy as headily capitalist as China's.
.....

Beijing's resort to command economy decrees has not been confined to electricity alone. Beset by inflation galloping at a decade high of more than 6 percent, the government has steadily widened price controls, finally freezing all food prices last month as well as clamping limits on fertilizer prices and raising price supports for rice and wheat.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080210/ap_on_bi_ge/china_commanding_the_economy

Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks fell, led by Kookmin Bank and Commonwealth Bank of Australia, after Group of Seven policy makers said fallout from the U.S. housing slump may further sap global growth.

Kookmin slumped the most in more than three years as South Korean stocks resumed trading after a three-day holiday. Commonwealth Bank dropped after the nation's central bank said it may raise borrowing costs. Reliance Power Ltd. declined on its first day of trade after it raised $3 billion last month in India's biggest share sale.

``The likelihood of a U.S. recession now looks pretty high and it's only a question of whether it's going to be a long or short one,'' said Nicole Sze, a Singapore-based investment analyst at Bank Julius Baer & Co., which manages $350 billion in assets worldwide. ``There's also no clarity as to whether all the subprime losses have already been accounted for.''

The MSCI Asia-Pacific excluding Japan Index lost 2.6 percent to 456.57 as of 4:20 p.m. in Hong Kong, set to close at its lowest since Jan. 23. South Korea's Kospi fell 3.3 percent. India's Sensitive Index slid 4.4 percent, the most in Asia.

Bank of Communications Ltd. led Chinese financial companies lower after Goldman, Sachs & Co. cut their share-price targets. Hong Kong and Singapore dropped following Lunar New Year holidays. Japan, China and Taiwan are shut today.

U.S. stocks fell on Feb. 8, rounding off the market's first weekly decline since mid-January. The Standard & Poor's 500 index has fallen 9.3 percent amid signs of mounting losses tied to investments in subprime, or higher risk, mortgages.

Banks Decline

Officials of G-7, which consists of the U.S., the U.K., Canada, Italy, France, Germany and Japan, ended a weekend meeting in Tokyo saying ``downside risks persist,'' including the U.S. housing slump and tighter credit conditions. ``Growth is expected to slow somewhat in the short term'' in ``all our economies,'' they said in a statement.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=ag1doLUm.gi0&refer=asia

HONG KONG, Feb 11 (Reuters) - Hong Kong blue chips fell
across the board on Monday, sliding 3.6 percent in their first
trading day of the year of the Rat, as the market caught up with
overseas losses during last week's holiday.

But trading was thin as China's stock market remained closed
for the Lunar New Year holiday and concerns lingered over the
health of the U.S. economy.

CNOOC (0883.HK: Quote, Profile, Research) plunged 6.45 percent to lead the blue-chip
losses, but Datang Power (0991.HK: Quote, Profile, Research) gained 1.89 percent to HK$5.40
on hopes it will benefit from the nation's power shortage.

The benchmark Hang Seng Index .HSI fell 853.35 points to
22,616.11. The China Enterprises index of H shares , or
Hong Kong-listed shares in mainland companies, slid 4.11 percent
at 12,530.60.

"Overseas markets are weak and the United States is facing a
major slowdown," said Joseph Lau, a director at Tai Fook Asset
Management.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCAHKG27464320080211?rpc=611

Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Reliance Power Ltd., which raised $3 billion in India's biggest initial public offering, fell as much as 14 percent on debut as a global equities sell-off dried up appetite for new share offerings.

The unit of Reliance Energy Ltd., controlled by billionaire Anil Ambani, fell to 389 rupees on the Bombay Stock Exchange, from the 450 rupees at which the stock was sold in the IPO last month. The shares traded at 425.35 rupees at 11:30 a.m.

Indian stocks tumbled 7.2 percent in the past week, amid a global rout, prompting companies to scrap $1.8 billion of share sales. Investors had sought $189 billion worth of Reliance Power shares in the IPO, betting it will benefit from India's $200 billion plan to expand power generation in the next seven years.

``There seems to be some kind of a panic out there, it's got to do with the broader market,'' said Viswanathan Vasudevan, who manages about $300 million at Aquarius Investment Advisors Pte. in Singapore. ``Reliance's projects have always been ambitious but they have the track record of delivering.''

Investors cast doubt on the scale of the nation's expansion plans after the government said last week it expects growth to slow for the first time in three years and announced an unexpected rise in inflation. That may discourage the central bank from cutting interest rates and companies from making the investments needed for growth.

...

Stocks have tumbled globally on concern that the collapse of the U.S. subprime mortgage market will push the world's largest economy into a recession and slow global growth.

India's key Sensitive Index, or Sensex, has dropped 15 percent this year, compared with a 47 percent increase last year. It fell 1.1 percent to 17,265.12 today, and is down 7.2 percent in the past week.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aQM0lXhJVV0E&refer=asia

Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Malaysia's export growth probably slowed in December as a cooling U.S. economy and a rising ringgit hurt demand for the Asian nation's electronics goods.

Overseas shipments rose 4.9 percent from a year earlier, after a 5.7 percent gain in November, according to the median forecast of 14 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The trade ministry's report is due in Kuala Lumpur tomorrow.

``Deterioration in growth in the fourth quarter in major export markets such the U.S., Singapore and Japan will likely weigh down on export sales,'' said Irvin Seah, an economist at DBS Group Holdings Ltd. in Singapore. ``The continued strengthening in the ringgit is also hurting exports.''

...

Expansion in the $149 billion economy may weaken in 2008 to 5.4 percent from an estimated 6.1 percent last year amid a global slowdown, the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research said on Jan. 17.

Electronic Products

The country, which produces Intel Corp. chips and Dell Inc. computers, relied on domestic demand and investment to lift growth to 6.7 percent in the third quarter as manufactured exports fell.

Malaysia's exports to the U.S. dropped 16.5 percent in November, the biggest decline in three months. Electronics shipments, which account for more than 40 percent of the country's total exports, fell most months in 2007.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aSTH3iS8EtTc&refer=asia

...

A report by Credit Suisse said 10 percent of China's farming land has been affected by the extreme cold, and one percent could see a complete loss of crops and vegetables.

Price increases have been seen in food items ranging from cooking oil to apple juice, as China's growth and global demand creates what economists have dubbed "agflation" referring specifically to rises in prices of agricultural commodities.

Analysts say authorities in Beijing are becoming increasingly concerned about the prospect of food prices getting out of hand, but add that the problem is not yet approaching the levels that led to widespread popular dissatisfaction almost a decade ago.

"They (the central government) are increasingly nervous about it," said Andy Rothman, Shanghai-based China Macro-Strategist for CLSA. "But it is a long, long way from the inflation problems before 1989."

...

Vincent Chan, head of China research for Credit Suisse, cited another change in recent months, saying people were now expecting price rises, an often self-fulfilling situation that leads to even higher market prices.

"If you look at the statistics, then China's inflation problem is simply a food inflation problem," he said. "In the past, we have not really had a problem of inflation expectation (but) this year we have already seen that. And that normally means that prices will rise."

/... http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080211/bs_afp/chinafoodpricesinflation_080211035432;_ylt=Amo5i45kRCeaD4alEn7HZaCmOrgF

European equity markets were lower on Monday, but off their worst levels as heavyweight oil and pharma stocks partially offset losses for financial and mining stocks.

By mid morning, the FTSE Eurofirst 300 was down 0.4 per cent to 1,296.68, Frankfurt's Xetra Dax shed 0.5 per cent to 6,733.92, the CAC 40 in Paris lost 0.4 per cent to 4,691.94 and London's FTSE 100 edged 0.2 per cent lower to 5,773.1.

Deutsche Postbank bucked the weak financial sector to rise 3.1 per cent to EU60.85 after the German press reported the retail bank could be sold as early as the spring.

Postbank has been the subject of fierce speculation during the past months and has strongly outperformed the European banking sector - down just 0.7 per cent since the start of the year, against the sector's 16 per cent losses.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20080211/bs_ft/fto021120080449497674

LONDON, Feb 10 (Reuters) - As much of Asia rings in the year of the rat, European equity investors are bidding farewell to the bull run that has finally drawn to a close after several years of double-digit gains.

European equity investors have enjoyed a prolonged period of chunky returns, thanks to record merger activity and robust economic growth driven by low interest rates and easy credit.

But the worst liquidity squeeze in decades has left the shadow of a contagious U.S. recession that could threaten earnings growth beyond Wall Street. As a result, European corporates have suffered for their exposure to the ills of their transatlantic counterparts.

By most measures, the broader European stock market, as reflected by the DJ Stoxx index of the top 600 companies in the region , has entered bear territory, having fallen by more than 20 percent since hitting 6-1/2 year highs last July.

Entry into a bear trend is often characterised by a drop of 20 percent or more from a peak, along with a shift in certain chart patterns. Rallies can ensue, but these tend to be short lived, marking successively lower peaks and troughs until the market finally hits a bottom.

"We're going into a bear market, and that will mean faux-rallies and short term pick-ups that people will be willing to trade in and out of, which could be exciting but could also be potentially lethal," said Justin Urquhart Stewart, a director at 7 Investment Management.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCNTL0877820120080210?rpc=611

LONDON, Feb 10 - (Reuters) - The extent of Europe's infection from the U.S. subprime mortgage virus is becoming clearer, even as the European Central Bank faces down calls for it to follow U.S. and UK counterparts by cutting interest rates.

Early estimates of fourth-quarter national output from the big euro zone economies are due later this week. The picture is probably one of growth in the 15-nation currency area marginally outstripping the U.S. economy in the final quarter of last year.

But there are growing signs the credit crisis and looming U.S. recession have hit Europe deeper than policymakers seem willing to acknowledge. Hopes that the euro zone can remain partly insulated from a U.S. housing bust and recession are receding.

Cisco Systems (CSCO.O), the largest maker of the routers and switches that direct traffic on data networks, warned last week of a rapid slowdown in both U.S. and European orders. Significantly, the Cisco numbers suggested conditions were deteriorating faster in Europe than the United States. In the quarter through January order growth in Europe more than halved to 8 percent. U.S. order growth slipped only one percentage point to 12 percent. "It's the most cautious I've seen CEOs in the U.S. and Europe in many years," Cisco Chief Executive John Chambers said.

That tallied with last week's shock service sector surveys. Any suggestion that Europe was weathering a U.S.-focused downturn seemed wide of the mark.

While attention largely centered on a plunge in confidence among U.S. service firms in January, German, Spanish and Italian service sectors also recorded their first contraction in years.

Financial markets are waking up also to the idea that it may be dangerous to use the relatively robust ECB economic forecasts as anything other than an interest rate pointer.

"The market is becoming aware that the crisis in the United States will indeed have an adverse impact on growth in Europe," said Heino Ruland, strategist at FrankfurtFinanz in Germany.

Pan-European stock markets have had one of their worst January performances on record and entered bear market territory in the course of that month. The FTSEurofirst (.FTEU3) lost another four percent this week.

"We now see a deterioration in the euro area," said Luca Paolini, strategist at Credit Suisse. "If anything the risks are higher in the euro area than in the U.S. -- where expectations are already very low. And you still don't have a policy response from the ECB."

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet acknowledged the darkening economic horizon after the bank left interest rates unchanged again at 4 percent on Thursday even as the Bank of England cut its key rates again by a quarter of a percentage point.

"If I take all the data, they confirm risks lie to the downside," Trichet told a news conference

Yet few expect an ECB rate cut for at least another month as the central bank focuses on above-target inflation rates instead. The combination of rising concern and a lack of action is worrying for many. The U.S. Federal Reserve has slashed its key interest rates by 2-1/4 percentage points in five months.

...

(GDP) Estimates for Germany, France, Spain and the overall euro zone are due for release on Thursday. Median forecasts for the single currency area are for growth to more than halve to 0.3 percent from 0.8 percent in the third quarter of the year.

That's still about twice the rate recorded in the United States in the final three months of 2007 but the difference is little more than a margin of error given how prone GDP data is to big revisions.

...

On Tuesday, the German ZEW index of investor confidence in February is due for release and, as it disproportionately reflects the mood in the financial world, it is widely expected to fall sharply.

"As the risks to economic growth build, Europe's central banks will likely be even more inclined to lean against the coming downturn," Deutsche Bank economists said in a note to clients on Friday. "We now expect the ECB to cut rates 100bp by the end of this year, starting in Q2."

/... http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080210/bs_nm/economy_weekahead_dc;_ylt=Avdxmr4Vi67ASY7Zrds3rSa573QA

FRANKFURT, Feb 11 (Reuters) - European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet denied that the ECB's Governing Council had informally discussed cutting interest rates at its latest policy meeting, according to an interview transcript published by the ECB on Monday.

"That would be a wrong interpretation," Trichet told Japanese reporters who asked him if the Council had talked about a cut from 4.0 percent, albeit without a policymaker concretely proposing it should do so.

"We had a very thorough discussion because the situation is complex and of a multidimensional nature. Perhaps even unusually multidimensional, taking all elements into account. As I said, there was no call for a rate increase and no call for a rate cut," he continued.

Trichet had made a similar comment at a news conference after the G7 summit of central bankers and finance ministers in Tokyo on Saturday.

... For the ECB's transcript of Trichet's Feb. 9 interview with Japanese news organisations Nikkei, Kyodo News, Yomiuri Shimbun and Nippon Hoso Kyokai, see http://www.ecb.int/press/key/date/2008/html/sp080211.en.html

/.. http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINL1173393020080211?rpc=611

(+ thanx for heart!).

ZURICH (AFP) - Swiss banking titans UBS and Credit Suisse risk losing clients to smaller rivals as annual results next week reveal the heavy impact of the US subprime crisis on their balance sheets.

UBS already said last month it expects its first ever full year net loss due to its subprime exposure, closing 2007 some 4.4 billion Swiss francs (3.5 billion dollars, 2.75 billion euros) in the red.

Subprime losses amount to about 12 billion dollars, with the loss of a further 2.0 billion dollars attributable to other aspects of the US housing market, the bank said.

...

UBS "has lost the confidence of its clients," said a Zurich-based trader who expects a downturn in the bank's key asset management business.

Funds research agency Lipper said that UBS has seen an 8.4 percent decline in its assets under management in the past six months, while Credit Suisse has seen a 1.9 percent fall.

At the same time, medium-sized Swiss banks such as Pictet and Julius Baer have seen their assets under management rise 11.9 percent and 12.3 percent respectively over the same period.

Julius Baer said on Friday that some of this rise came from "a certain number of new clients," without providing further details.

UBS publishes its full results on Thursday, but already has the unenviable status of the third-biggest loser from the subprime crisis, after Citigroup (21.1 billion dollars in losses) and Merrill Lynch (19.4 billion dollars).

The bank warned in January that 2008 would be a difficult year owing to the fallout from the subprime crisis and turmoil on global financial markets.

"We cannot, at this time, accurately predict the future development of US residential mortgage markets and therefore the ultimate impact on our positions in subprime mortgage-related securities," UBS said in a letter to shareholders.

Rival Credit Suisse, which unveils its own full year figures on Tuesday, is expected to fare somewhat better after not getting its fingers so badly burned by subprime, analysts said.

The bank is expected to post a full year profit between 8.6 and 9.4 billion Swiss francs, down from 11.3 billion Swiss francs in 2006.

"Credit Suisse got out of subprime in time, before the market crashed," said Zuercher Kantonalbank analyst Andreas Venditti.

However the bank is still exposed to other sectors, such as commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) and leveraged buy-outs, which could yet fall victim to the credit crunch, he added.

/... http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080211/bs_afp/switzerlandbankingcompanyearningsubscreditsuisse_080211002106;_ylt=AmVlYSFhMJ2ytbwafvTrK0mmOrgF

European equity markets fell on Monday as weakness in financial and mining stocks offset strength in drugmakers.

The FTSE Eurofirst 300 closed down 0.8 per cent to 1,291.96, Frankfurt's Xetra Dax shed 0.4 per cent to 6,743.54, the CAC 40 in Paris lost 0.6 per cent to 4,682.70 and London's FTSE 100 was 1.3 per cent lower to 5,707.7.

Shares in IKB, the German bank hit hard by the subprime crisis, plunged by 21.8 per cent to EU4.94 after reports emerged over the weekend that it was looking for $2bn to stay afloat. Reports that the huge capital guarantee was needed to compensate for further subprime-related writedowns spurred analysts at UniCredit and Equinet to downgrade the stock.

Deutsche Postbank bucked the weak financial sector to rise 1 per cent to EU59.62 after the German press reported the retail bank could be sold as early as the spring.

Postbank has been the subject of fierce speculation during the past months and has strongly outperformed the European banking sector - down just 0.7 per cent since the start of the year, against the sector's 16 per cent losses.

Deutsche Post, the mail and logistics group, owns 50 per cent of Postbank and has said it may decide on a sale in the second half of the year. Its shares were down 0.6 per cent to EU21.67.

Commerzbank, one of the German banks which has already voiced interest in acquiring Postbank, fell 0.8 per cent to EU19.07.

Société Générale, the French bank, led the remainder of the sector lower after launching a one-for-four share issue to existing shareholders at EU47.50 - a 39 per cent discount to Friday's closing price.

/... http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20080211/bs_ft/fto021120081219357737;_ylt=ArTPADvNyfT7JCPOF.r1LHH2ULEF

London's losses deepened after US insurance group AIG found "material weakness" in its credit default swap portfolio, sending shockwaves through the sector.

With AIG share down more than 10 per cent in New York, UK insurers also came under pressure and closed sharply lower.

Royal & Sun Alliance lost 4.4 per cent at 124.6p, Old Mutual fell 5.6 per cent to 116½p, Resolution lost 6.2 per cent to 672p, Aviva shed 4.9 per cent to 551p, Legal & General fell 4.1 per cent to 120.1p and Prudential fell 3.6 per cent to 169p.

Resolution was further undermined by news that its takeover by privately-owned Pearl Group had been delayed.

At the close, the FTSE 100 was down 76.3 points, or 1.3 per cent, at 5,707.7.

Fears remained that banks too will require further writedowns related to complex debt securities as a new report showed the market for collateralised debt obligations (CDOs) had its worst month in January for more than 10 years.

Speaking at the G7 meeting in Japan this weekend, Peer Steinbruck, German finance minister, said write-offs related to the US mortgage crisis could reach $400bn.

Alliance & Leicester closed down 4.4 per cent at 580p, HSBC eased 3.3 per cent to 712½p and HBOS was 3.3 per cent lower at 636p after analysts at HSBC lowered price targets on all the UK's leading lenders.

/... http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20080211/bs_ft/fto021120081219517739;_ylt=AjQHbrKsHtmkA8iIYqUYibv2ULEF

OMG, AIG’s CDS’s Are Not A-OK

Observers for several months now have noted the considerable widening in spreads in credit-default swaps, a kind of insurance investors take out against a default in bond investments. But that widening in spreads hurts someone, in particular the company that is providing insurance, which is what’s behind the hit to American International Group.

. . .

What’s happened is that AIG has been forced to re-evaluate the value of these credit default swaps on collateralized debt in what’s called the “super senior” tranches. Debt is issued in a multitude of tranches, establishing a pecking order on who gets paid back first in the event of a default. Super-senior debt is first in that order, and as a result, “is typically safe from a credit perspective,” says Rohan Douglas, CEO of Quantifi, a credit derivatives analytics and risk management firm in Summit, N.J.

However, market risk has increased dramatically in this area, causing spreads to widen, and reducing the value of those assets. Debt at this super-senior level is also frequently considered a “safe slice of capital,” Mr. Douglas says, so “people have viewed it as a buy-and-hold asset and don’t look at the market risk.”

That risk has increased dramatically, however, to the point where it is impacting AIG’s balance sheet, and Mr. Backshall expects it to affect others, as well. Shares of AIG have dropped and investors are now placing greater premiums on that company’s own risk of default, having boosted insurance to an annual cost of $200,000 to protect $10 million in bonds from defaulting over five years. That’s up from $158,000 last week. Meanwhile, the overall investment-grade bond CDX index, which measures a basket of corporate bonds, is at 137 basis points, compared to 129.7 basis points yesterday.

“This news for AIG is clearly bad and bodes badly for the rest of the sector who are all just as likely to be facing similar exposures,” says Mr. Backshall.

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Northwest Airlines Corp (NWA.N: Quote, Profile, Research) may reach a merger agreement within weeks after sharing details of their plans with pilot unions, according to a report on Bloomberg.com citing people familiar with the talks.

Delta and Northwest have shared details of a proposed combination with Air Line Pilots Associations chapters at each carrier as union leaders study how to mesh pilot seniority lists, according to the report.

An announcement of the merger may come within weeks, according to the report.

A Delta spokeswoman declined to comment on the report saying the company continues to look at strategic options but is not providing updates on the process at this time.

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSN1160509420080211

LONDON, Feb. 11, 2008 (Thomson Financial delivered by Newstex) -- Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO) Inc is seeking to restart merger talks with Time Warner Inc (NYSE:TWX) unit AOL as a means of defending itself against the 45 bln usd hostile bid approach from Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) , The Times newspaper reported, without citing sources.

It is understood that Yahoo and its team of advisers have spent the past week evaluating possible tie-ups with media and technology companies that would save it from being swallowed by Microsoft.

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/newstex/AFX-0013-22918938.htm

LONDON (CNNMoney.com) -- U.S. stock futures fell early Monday as credit concerns stalked the market and investors eyed sharp declines overseas.

At 4:47 a.m. ET, Nasdaq and S&P futures were indicating early losses for Wall Street.

U.S. stocks racked up heavy losses last week as investors were unable to shake off worries about the economy and credit crisis.

Investors overseas have been glum as well. In Asia, Hong Kong stocks finished the session sharply lower. Japanese markets were closed for a holiday. European stocks opened slightly lower.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/02/11/markets/stockswatch/index.htm

Have a wonderful day folks. I'll check back when my day's work is done.

:hi:

WASHINGTON (AFP) - White knights or vultures? Sovereign wealth funds from Asia and the Middle East, which gave a lifeline to US financial houses rocked by a mortgage crisis, are coming under tight US scrutiny.

The spotlight is on the fledgling, cash-flush China Investment Corporation Ltd. (CIC), which US lawmakers fear could snap up strategic assets in the credit-tight United States and threaten American security and sovereignty.

Emerging Asian economies may also be hurt by the aggressive portfolio decisions of the CIC that could drive up their currencies and allow Chinese products to undercut their goods at home and in exports markets, experts say.

...

While the funds provide critical liquity to credit-tight US and serve as white knights for distressed companies, "these short run benefits should not lull us into a false sense of long term security," said Peter Navarro, a business professor at the University of California-Irvine.

"In fact, the SWFs (sovereign wealth funds) could just as easily be looked upon as vultures than white knights," he told the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission last week as the bipartisan congressional panel considered the security implications of investments from such funds.

Navarro demanded full transparency for funds that wished to purchase US assets and asked that they be completely shut out from investing in any sector, industry or asset deemed to be strategic for US economic or military purposes.

/... http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080211/bs_afp/usasiamideastinvestment_080210174507;_ylt=Asdkb1yDcDxIJh1X5QeN3PymOrgF

2/8/08 The Mother of all Bubbles by Peter Schiff

For years I have predicted that the falling dollar, persistent trade deficit, and the lack of domestic savings would combine to send long-term interest rates sharply higher. The effects of these fundamental drivers would undermine the Fed's efforts to lower short-term rates and compound the problems for the housing market and the U.S. economy. Yet as of today, the yield on the thirty-year Treasury bond still stands below 4.5%, within 40 basis points of a generational low. Either this is the one piece of the puzzle that I somehow got wrong, or other factors are working to temporarily confound fundamental economics and prop up the bond market. As you might imagine, I am confident that it is the latter and consider the U.S. Treasury market to be the mother of all bubbles.

Eventually, the world's lenders will reach similar conclusions with respect to U.S. Treasuries. No matter how low the Fed funds or discount rates get, private savers around the world will simply refuse to lend given the inherent risks and paltry returns. At some point the sheer absurdity of holding long-term, low-yielding receipts for future payments of depreciating U.S. dollars will be apparent to all. After all, it was not too long ago that investors thought holding subprime mortgages from financially strapped borrowers who could not possibly repay them was also a great idea -- so great in fact that many leveraged themselves to the hilt to buy them. Judging from the extremely poor demand at this week's $9 billion auction of thirty-year Treasury bonds, the day of reckoning may not be too far off.

more...
http://www.safehaven.com/article-9426.htm

Highlights

Current:



30-day and 90-day vs.greenback:



30-day vs. Euro, Yen, UK Pound and Swiss Franc




Currency Comparison: http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Detailed analysis: http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD

Up-to-the-minute graph: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CD.Y%24%24&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=1

Historical values http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2007-12-31 Monday, December 31 1.01204 USD
2008-01-01 Tuesday, January 1 1.01204 USD
2008-01-02 Wednesday, January 2 1.00786 USD
2008-01-03 Thursday, January 3 1.00959 USD
2008-01-04 Friday, January 4 1.0012 USD
2008-01-07 Monday, January 7 0.995025 USD
2008-01-08 Tuesday, January 8 1.0015 USD
2008-01-09 Wednesday, January 9 0.991768 USD
2008-01-10 Thursday, January 10 0.986291 USD
2008-01-11 Friday, January 11 0.980584 USD
2008-01-14 Monday, January 14 0.979432 USD
2008-01-15 Tuesday, January 15 0.983574 USD
2008-01-16 Wednesday, January 16 0.976753 USD
2008-01-17 Thursday, January 17 0.971817 USD
2008-01-18 Friday, January 18 0.97144 USD
2008-01-21 Monday, January 21 0.97144 USD
2008-01-22 Tuesday, January 22 0.9758 USD
2008-01-23 Wednesday, January 23 0.972573 USD
2008-01-24 Thursday, January 24 0.99295 USD
2008-01-25 Friday, January 25 0.995619 USD
2008-01-28 Monday, January 28 0.995818 USD
2008-01-29 Tuesday, January 29 1.0022 USD
2008-01-30 Wednesday, January 30 1.00644 USD
2008-01-31 Thursday, January 31 0.998203 USD
2008-02-01 Friday, February 1 1.00614 USD
2008-02-04 Monday, February 4 1.00735 USD
2008-02-05 Tuesday, February 5 0.995718 USD
2008-02-06 Wednesday, February 6 0.997705 USD
2008-02-07 Thursday, February 7 0.988631 USD
2008-02-08 Friday, February 8 1.0006 USD


Current values

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

Market            Open   High    Low   Last  Change    Pct 
CD.Y$$ Cash     1.0003 1.0030 0.9996 0.9996 +0.0112 +1.11% 
CD.H08 Mar 2008 0.9975 1.0044 0.9975 0.9987 +0.0108 +1.07% 
CD.M08 Jun 2008 1.0010 1.0010        0.9966 +0.0108 +1.07% 
CD.U08 Sep 2008 0.9785 0.9785 0.9780 0.9947 +0.0107 +1.06% 
CD.Z08 Dec 2008 0.9750 0.9750 0.9750 0.9928 +0.0106 +1.05%  
CD.H09 Mar 2009 0.9810 0.9825        0.9909 +0.0105 +1.04% 
CD.M09 Jun 2009 0.9995 0.9995        0.9890 +0.0104 +1.03% 
 

Other combinations: (http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies)

Market              Open    High     Low    Last   Change     Pct 
AUSTRALIAN $/CANADIAN $ (NYBOT:AS)
AS.H08 Mar 2008   0.88340                 0.89275 -0.00660 -0.76%  
AUSTRALIAN $/US$ (NYBOT:AU)
AU.H08 Mar 2008   0.9042                  0.8914  +0.0028  +0.32%  
CANADIAN $/JAPANESE YEN (NYBOT:HY)
HY.H08 Mar 2008  107.000 107.000 107.000 106.865  +0.975   +0.87%  
EURO/AUSTRALIAN $ (NYBOT:RA)
RA.H08 Mar 2008  1.6642  1.6642  1.6642  1.6255   -0.0004  -0.02%  
EURO/BRITISH POUND (NYBOT:GB)
GB.H08 Mar 2008  0.7445  0.7452  0.7438  0.7465   +0.0004  +0.05%   
EURO/CANADIAN $ (NYBOT:EP)
EP.H08 Mar 2008  1.4870  1.4870  1.4870  1.4515   -0.0108  -0.75%  
EURO/JAPANESE YEN (NYBOT:EJ)
EJ.H08 Mar 2008  155.480 155.570 154.440 154.440  -0.705   -0.44%   
EURO/US$ (SMALL) (NYBOT:EO)
EO.H08 Mar 2008  1.44750 1.44770 1.44750 1.44915  +0.00445 +0.30%  

Blather (from http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

The March Canadian Dollar gapped up and closed above the 10-day moving average crossing at 99.83 leaving a one-day island bottom on the daily chart. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this weeks decline, gap support beginning at 98.22 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 101.14 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. First resistance is today's high crossing at 100.44. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 101.14. First support is today's low crossing at 99.75 then the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.89.


Analysis

Couldn't sleep after some idiot phoned at 3 a.m. so I figured I may as well post early. I notice the loonie's already ping-ponging around par. It ended last week on good economic indicators because of low unemployment.

2/11/08 The bulls have come back out to suggest we've seen the worst of the credit crisis. But the real problem -- too many bad mortgages -- won't be easily solved. by Bill Fleckenstein

Sometimes, in order to figure out what's likely to happen, you need to boil the problem down to its simplest state.

The problem in this country is that too many people have houses they can't afford and debts they can't service. Many financial institutions are owed those debts, which are impaired.

However, in the case before us, mortgages have been sliced and diced. Hardly a mortgage is left in the place it was originated. Conceivably, any given mortgage could be held by 50 or 100 financial institutions rather than just one. And every community has unique problems to deal with.

I don't believe there's any way to get the genie back into the bottle or to solve not just the size but the complexity of the fundamental mortgage problem: Too many people are involved with too many different agendas to make these credit problems go away quickly and easily.

more...
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/ContrarianChronicles/HousingMessTooBigForAQuickFix.aspx

2/10/08

There is still $300bn of bad debt out there, and Japan could be hiding most of it. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard reports

Just as battered investors had begun to glimpse signs of recovery in America, the next shoe has dropped with an almighty thud in Japan. Echoes are rumbling across the Far East.

The Tokyo bourse has crumbled, suffering the worst start to the year since the Second World War. The Nikkei index is down 17 per cent since Christmas, and the shares of Japanese banks are leading the slide. Mizuho Financial, Mitsubishi UFJ and Sumitomo Mitsui have all been punished as hard or even harder than those US banks at the epicentre of the sub-prime debacle.

The nagging fear is that Japan's lenders - the conduit for the world's greatest stash of savings - have taken on a far bigger chunk of mortgage securities, collateralised loans obligations and other exotica from America's structured credit boom than they have yet revealed.

more...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/02/10/ccjapan110.xml

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 76.390 Change -0.264 (-0.35%)

Dollar - Data Doesn't Matter

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/Dollar___Data_Doesn_t_Matter_1202710966024.html

It was a sea of red ink on the US economic calendar this week as Factory Orders, Pending Home Sales, ISM Non-Manufacturing and jobless claims all printed much worse than expected, practically assuring a Fed rate cut at the next meeting in March. The dollar however couldn’t have cared less. The unit gained 300 points in an near vertical fashion as market sentiment changed completely from focusing on US economic woes to worrying about slowdown in the rest of the world.

As we wrote in our special report, Why is the Dollar So Strong? “While the data continues to point to further EURUSD strength, the price refuses to confirm this analysis and as traders we should respect the message that price is sending.” That having been said the EURUSD appears to be finding a modicum of support at the 1.4500 level.

As we noted on Friday, “If the EZ economy is able to weather the slowdown in global demand without seeing any material deterioration in its labor markets, the ECB may keep rates at 4% for much longer than the market thinks. The Fed in the meantime will continue to lower the Fed funds rate perhaps to 2% by the middle of this year. Yesterday’s weekly jobless claims which printed above the key 350k barrier suggest that the labor situation in the US is rapidly becoming worse. The market therefore may be underestimating the length and the duration of interest rate advantage that the euro may have and once traders appreciate that possibility the EURUSD should resume its upward trek.”

Next week the data could play a much more critical role as traders will get a look at Retail Sales, Trade Balance and TICS. Of the three, the TICS release could be the most market moving. Up to now the greenback been well protected from capital flow concerns as TICS have generally printed well in excess of $60 Billion. If however, the data shows a serious drop-off in flows, the dollar may resume its slide.



...more...

The Risks Facing the US Dollar

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/The_Risks_Facing_the_US_1202506433903.html

It has been a quiet day in the currency market with no US economic data released other than wholesale inventories, which was stronger than expected but not market moving. The dollar is slightly weaker against all of the major currencies as retracement and recovery remains the theme of the day. On Saturday, G7 finance ministers will be releasing their communiqué. No major changes to the currency language are expected. Publicly, China will continue to bear the brunt of pressure for exchange rate adjustments but behind the curtains, the US will be called to halt the dollar's slide. In fact, the dollar's weakness has already caused many different groups to reconsider their financial situations. Yesterday, we talked about how the weak dollar is hitting Main Street and today, Reuters obtained an advance copy of an article expected to be published in a London based magazine next week that quotes the OPEC Secretary as saying "Maybe we can price the oil in the euro. It can be done, but it will take time." The US dollar did sell off when the headline hit the news wires but the impact has been small given the significance of this announcement. The lack of a more major reaction may be due to the fact that the article has not been officially released and a move to price oil in dollars will indeed take a very long time because a lot of changes will need to be made including how oil is traded and settled on financial exchanges. This is a big risk for the dollar in the long term because unless we get a major rally, the Euro will continue to chip away at the currency's dominating status. Next week, US retail sales also pose a risk for the greenback. The drop in consumer confidence and decline in chain store sales could lead to another month of negative consumer spending. Recent data out of the US indicates that the economy is in a recession and retail sales can easily confirm or deny that. In addition to the consumer spending number, we are also expecting the US Empire State manufacturing survey, the Treasury International Capital report, Industrial Production and the University of Michigan consumer confidence survey.

...more...

deleted

All that you touch
All that you see
All that you taste
All you feel.
All that you love
All that you hate
All you distrust
All you save.
All that you give
All that you deal
All that you buy,
Beg, borrow or steal.
All you create
All you destroy
All that you do
All that you say.
All that you eat
And everyone you meet
All that you slight
And everyone you fight.
All that is now
All that is gone
All thats to come
And everything under the sun is in tune
But the sun is eclipsed by the moon.

There is no dark side of the moon really. matter of fact its all dark.



Just feeling a bit gloomy on this bitterly cold Monday morning.

But, that song just came up in my iTunes. Sorta got me contemplating for a moment.. Our choices this election. Obama seems to be the only one left that can shed light. All the other bright shining lights have been extinguished.

I got thru on C-SPAN the other day and posted about it here but, as you can see, even here on DU I was attacked with insults and ad hominems. That saddened me. This place should represent a stance of progressivity, not wanting to continue to be mired in the muck of the establishment.

It truly will take a huge, and I mean HUGE, economic crash to wake this country up and allow it to be renewed, like a Phoenix.



Sucks I have to hope for such a dire event...America is fat, dumb, and spoiled.




Ok, enough cheer for the day....

Go sit in the sun. It will make you feel better (see my post upthread).

It's hard slogging through the end of Winter when all you want is warmth and comfort. But the Winter does things for us. It gives the soil a chance to rest. It kills back the bite-y bugs. It snaps old trees and makes way for saplings. It gives us respite from long days of labor in the heat.

Winter is not the Aunty that lets you play outside all day. She's the one that makes you stay inside and read a sensible book. She's a little more structured, a little more stern. And in later years when you look back, you still favor the Summer and those carefree moments, but in your adult wisdom, you appreciate the Winter more and more.

We need the rest of the country and the world to do the same.

Perhaps a rewording of Make Love, Not War into:

Make Love, Not War and Money.

It's rough when someone pisses in your coffee. I think that because we watch the market so closely-we can see a little bit more clearly down the road. ITA. We will have that major crash soo enough. I listen this weekend to WS Business Report. I swear-Maria is starting to sound like Cramer-volumn and all.:eyes:
Keep your head cool and your powder dry Roland99.

01. Chevron, B of A joining Dow industrials
9:13 AM ET, Feb 11, 2008 - 6 minutes ago

02. Altria, Honeywell leaving Dow industrials
9:13 AM ET, Feb 11, 2008 - 6 minutes ago

03. Dow industrials being reweighted: reports
9:07 AM ET, Feb 11, 2008 - 12 minutes ago

note:

When you can win legitimately, cheat - change the rules of engagement - obsfuscate the facts.

:eyes:

I'll have to renegotiate my date in AnneD's "Great Re-do Pool".

I suppose they'll keep switching around to keep the game going. :eyes:

one place is shutting down it's call center - 300 jobs... **poof** saying they were consolidating call centers

another one laid off 50 people due to "reorganiztion of departments" **poof**

yesterday a third place in out area announced 150 to be laid-off **poof** and they specifically said it was because of the economic slowdown

so in about a month's time 500 jobs **poof**

Or maybe it's like the square root of -1, which yields i, which is an imaginary known.

If you think about this too much you could give yourself one hell of a migraine. :(

"Our view is edging closer to recession, albeit a mild one," said Joseph LaVorgna, economist at Deutsche Bank in New York, reacting to a spate of weak economic reports.

...

The latest data "pretty much seals the deal on the recession call," said Myles Zyblock, analyst at RBC Dominion Securities. "The question now turns to how long and how deep this contraction might be."

Even at the Federal Reserve, where officials have generally avoided the "R" word, some officials have let the word slip out. Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker said that while he sees sluggish growth, "I can also see the possibility of a mild recession, similar to the last two we have experienced -- in other words, shallow and with a slow recovery."

Morgan Stanley economists Richard Berner and David Greenlaw said in a note to clients, "Recession has arrived, in our view, heralded by intensifying weakness in incoming data, and the economy faces a rocky road ahead." Berner and Greenlaw added however that the downturn will be limited and that 2008 as a whole will show modest growth of 1.3 percent after declines in the first two quarters. They said the likely impact of tax rebates from the economic stimulus plan will provide a temporary boost but that a strong recovery is not likely until 2009, when they see growth at 2.7 percent.

Others see a more ominous scenario and say the central bank and other officials have been slow to react.

Merrill Lynch economist David Rosenberg said evidence of a recession is piling up with dismal figures from the Institute of Supply Management services sector report, "the collapse in auto sales" in January and "unprecedented tightening in credit conditions." This "adds to our concern that we are facing a much deeper downturn than we saw in 2001," and means the Fed may be forced to make an emergency rate cut before its next meeting March 18.

Nouriel Roubini, a New York University economist, who has been bearish on the economy for over a year, said most indicators "are heading south and suggesting a deep and severe recession that has already started." Roubini said the Fed is moving aggressively because it "is seriously worried about this vicious circle and about the risks of a systemic financial meltdown."

Joseph Quinlan, economist at Bank of America, said that regardless of whether a recession develops, the so-called "misery index" -- the sum of unemployment and inflation -- has reached a three-year high of 9.1 percent, a sign of growing trouble. "With the US economy already on thin ice ... the higher the misery index in the coming months, the greater the odds of a consumer-led US recession," Quinlan said. "The latter, in turn, could trigger a vicious circle of more job cuts, rising unemployment and an even greater level of retrenchment on the part of US consumers."

RBC's Zyblock said the Fed rate cuts and economic stimulus efforts will help ease the downturn. "We believe it to be highly premature to characterize current policy efforts as impotent," he said. "Policy makers have learned from the script of post-1989 Japan and the US experience of the 1930s that today's collapse in real estate should be treated as an ominous deflationary threat. We believe policymakers have begun, and will continue, to attack the problem with the seriousness it deserves."

/... http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080210/bs_afp/useconomygrowthrecession_080210040922;_ylt=AuplIQ99jJoHD1DZs1F8o5OmOrgF

Senior global policymakers have raised projections for the size of subprime-related credit losses in a move that implies financial institutions will have to increase write-offs.

Speaking after the meeting of Group of Seven finance leaders, Peer Steinbrück, German finance minister, said the G7 now feared that write-offs of losses on securities linked to US subprime mortgages could reach $400bn.

This is sharply higher than the $120bn credit losses that Wall Street banks and other institutions have revealed in recent weeks - and also far bigger than the US Federal Reserve's estimates for subprime losses last year of $100bn-$150bn.

But G7 finance ministers admitted that it remained unclear where much of this subprime pain would eventually emerge, not least because the path of the credit crunch was still uncertain. Mr Steinbrück and other ministers appealed to financial institutions to provide "prompt and full disclosure'' of losses, to restore confidence.

"The next 10 days to two weeks will be crucial because we are going to have the first audited accounts since the crisis started," added Mario Draghi, governor of the Bank of Italy and chair of the Financial Stability Forum, a committee of international supervisors and central bankers.

Mr Draghi said regulators were ready to force banks to reveal their losses and replenish their equity ratios. He did not rule out the possibility that governments might eventually need to inject capital into banks, although he stressed that market solutions should take precedence.

The comments followed a weekend of G7 talks that were dominated by the credit turmoil and the implications of these problems for the global economy.

/... http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20080210/bs_ft/fto021020081450027605;_ylt=Aj67TVnt.WWAGZ9CGnuRmL72ULEF

You don't even have to read between the lines anymore. A significant, long lasting slowdown is not even code. It's a working description of an Economic Depression.

Dow 12,102.47 79.66 (0.65%)
Nasdaq 2,297.37 7.48 (0.32%)
S&P 500 1,323.72 7.57 (0.57%)
10-Yr Bond 3.63% 0.024

NYSE Volume 329,216,781.25
Nasdaq Volume 209,074,437.5

09:40 am : It is a lackluster start to trading, with the stock market clutching the unchanged mark. The bulls are hoping for a rebound after last week the S&P 500 had its largest weekly decline ever in the month of February.

Dominating headlines this morning is news that Yahoo! (YHOO) has rejected Microsoft's (MSFT) offer. Yahoo! said that the deal undervalues the company, even though the offer represented a 62% premium when it was made on Feb. 3.

DJ30 -39.26 NASDAQ -1.49 SP500 -1.79

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.5. A modestly higher start to the trading day is expected. Bank of America (BAC) and Chevron (CVX) are being added to the DJIA, replacing Altria (MO) and Honeywell (HON). A Dow Jones official on CNBC said that Altria spurred the change due to its plan to spin off its Phillip Morris brand. He said this is the first change to the average since 2004.

08:57 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.5.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +11.0. It continues to be a quiet morning. Futures have gained some ground with the Nasdaq set to outperform.

Seems like we are getting closer by the week now. Guess the date the DJIA rolls back to the level it was when the chimp took office-10,578.24.You can revise your dates up until Labour Day (the working man's holiday)or the DJIA hits 11000 (got to have a cut off). Anyone can join, just give a date and your reasoning for that date.

the other one.....1/30
DemReadingDU.....2/29
Ther-s a.....3/15
Talking Dog.....3/28 at 2 pmish
Warpy...3/20
FinnFan.....4/10
ProgressiveRealist.....4/17
Mattsh.....4/22
GhostDog.....4/28
MilesColtrain.....5/2
Happyslug.....5/9
UIA.....7/15
Roland99.....7/28
Abelenkpe.....8/2
Kineneb.....8/8
Prag.....9/5
MoJo Rabbit.....9/5
MuleBoy(aka hiz honna da mayor).....9/11
Birthmark....10/10
AnneD....10/24
MsLeopard.....10/31
Ship wrack.....11/5
Demeter.....1/20/09

Remember-you can change the dates as we learn more. The winner get the praise and admiration of those on the Stockwatch Thread.

This is a pretty weak market.
I doubt we'll stay in the 12,000's much longer this year.
It will go much lower soon.

Right up there with "It was a dark and stormy night..." Sounds like we need start a Bulwer-Lytton writing contest for describing the markets and economy. It might at least cheer us up a bit.

http://www.bulwer-lytton.com/

Lackluster seems to be an understatement...

as flat as a pre teen training bra.

The economy was as flat as a Kansas ski slope.

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks fell on Monday on renewed worries about credit losses after insurer American International Group Inc received a rebuke from its auditors for how it valued some credit derivatives.

The disclosure cast doubt on AIG's past contention that the world's largest insurer didn't face major problems stemming from the credit crisis that has slammed other financial institutions.

Shares of AIG fell 11.2 percent to $45, a five-year low and its worst one-day percentage drop since the 1987 stock market crash. That dragged on shares of other financial companies, with the S&P financials index down 2.6 percent.

Economic jitters persisted after finance leaders from the Group of Seven major economies said during the weekend problems in the U.S. housing market may lead to worsening conditions as debt-laden banks clamp down on credit.

"The concerns about AIG are affecting the financials and are clearly having a negative effect on sentiment," Michael James, senior trader at regional investment bank Wedbush Morgan in Los Angeles.

"You also had some comments from leaders of the G7 which may have alarmed some."

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/hotStocksNews/idUSL3188041320080211

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Shares of credit card companies fell on Thursday after American Express Co (AXP.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said a slowdown in cardholder spending and rising delinquencies would lead to a pretax charge of around $440 million for the fourth quarter.

Shares of Capital One (COF.N: Quote, Profile, Research) fell 1.7 percent, Discover Financial (DFS.N: Quote, Profile, Research) fell 1.5 percent and MasterCard (MA.N: Quote, Profile, Research) shares dropped 3.8 percent in extended trade.

American Express shares fell 5 percent.

/.. http://news.yahoo.com/i/1106;_ylt=Al5C_c0yChapyzvWon8qRxmyBhIF

Highlights

Current:



30-day and 90-day vs.greenback:



30-day vs. Euro, Yen, UK Pound and Swiss Franc




Currency Comparison: http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Detailed analysis: http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD

Up-to-the-minute graph: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CD.Y%24%24&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=1

Historical values http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2007-12-31 Monday, December 31 1.01204 USD
2008-01-01 Tuesday, January 1 1.01204 USD
2008-01-02 Wednesday, January 2 1.00786 USD
2008-01-03 Thursday, January 3 1.00959 USD
2008-01-04 Friday, January 4 1.0012 USD
2008-01-07 Monday, January 7 0.995025 USD
2008-01-08 Tuesday, January 8 1.0015 USD
2008-01-09 Wednesday, January 9 0.991768 USD
2008-01-10 Thursday, January 10 0.986291 USD
2008-01-11 Friday, January 11 0.980584 USD
2008-01-14 Monday, January 14 0.979432 USD
2008-01-15 Tuesday, January 15 0.983574 USD
2008-01-16 Wednesday, January 16 0.976753 USD
2008-01-17 Thursday, January 17 0.971817 USD
2008-01-18 Friday, January 18 0.97144 USD
2008-01-21 Monday, January 21 0.97144 USD
2008-01-22 Tuesday, January 22 0.9758 USD
2008-01-23 Wednesday, January 23 0.972573 USD
2008-01-24 Thursday, January 24 0.99295 USD
2008-01-25 Friday, January 25 0.995619 USD
2008-01-28 Monday, January 28 0.995818 USD
2008-01-29 Tuesday, January 29 1.0022 USD
2008-01-30 Wednesday, January 30 1.00644 USD
2008-01-31 Thursday, January 31 0.998203 USD
2008-02-01 Friday, February 1 1.00614 USD
2008-02-04 Monday, February 4 1.00735 USD
2008-02-05 Tuesday, February 5 0.995718 USD
2008-02-06 Wednesday, February 6 0.997705 USD
2008-02-07 Thursday, February 7 0.988631 USD
2008-02-08 Friday, February 8 1.0006 USD


Current values

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

Market            Open   High    Low   Last  Change    Pct 
CD.Y$$ Cash     1.0003 1.0030 0.9996 0.9996 +0.0112 +1.11% 
CD.H08 Mar 2008 0.9975 1.0044 0.9975 0.9987 +0.0108 +1.07% 
CD.M08 Jun 2008 1.0010 1.0010        0.9966 +0.0108 +1.07% 
CD.U08 Sep 2008 0.9785 0.9785 0.9780 0.9947 +0.0107 +1.06% 
CD.Z08 Dec 2008 0.9750 0.9750 0.9750 0.9928 +0.0106 +1.05%  
CD.H09 Mar 2009 0.9810 0.9825        0.9909 +0.0105 +1.04% 
CD.M09 Jun 2009 0.9995 0.9995        0.9890 +0.0104 +1.03% 
 

Other combinations: (http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies)

Market              Open    High     Low    Last   Change     Pct 
AUSTRALIAN $/CANADIAN $ (NYBOT:AS)
AS.H08 Mar 2008   0.88340                 0.89275 -0.00660 -0.76%  
AUSTRALIAN $/US$ (NYBOT:AU)
AU.H08 Mar 2008   0.9042                  0.8914  +0.0028  +0.32%  
CANADIAN $/JAPANESE YEN (NYBOT:HY)
HY.H08 Mar 2008  107.000 107.000 107.000 106.865  +0.975   +0.87%  
EURO/AUSTRALIAN $ (NYBOT:RA)
RA.H08 Mar 2008  1.6642  1.6642  1.6642  1.6255   -0.0004  -0.02%  
EURO/BRITISH POUND (NYBOT:GB)
GB.H08 Mar 2008  0.7445  0.7452  0.7438  0.7465   +0.0004  +0.05%   
EURO/CANADIAN $ (NYBOT:EP)
EP.H08 Mar 2008  1.4870  1.4870  1.4870  1.4515   -0.0108  -0.75%  
EURO/JAPANESE YEN (NYBOT:EJ)
EJ.H08 Mar 2008  155.480 155.570 154.440 154.440  -0.705   -0.44%   
EURO/US$ (SMALL) (NYBOT:EO)
EO.H08 Mar 2008  1.44750 1.44770 1.44750 1.44915  +0.00445 +0.30%  

Blather (from http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

The March Canadian Dollar gapped up and closed above the 10-day moving average crossing at 99.83 leaving a one-day island bottom on the daily chart. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this weeks decline, gap support beginning at 98.22 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 101.14 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. First resistance is today's high crossing at 100.44. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 101.14. First support is today's low crossing at 99.75 then the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.89.


Analysis

(I tried to post this about 5 a.m. my time and I think I crashed the database, so I'm reposting now.)

Couldn't sleep after some idiot phoned at 3 a.m. so I figured I may as well post early. I notice the loonie's already ping-ponging around par. It ended last week on good economic indicators because of low unemployment.

Sun Feb 10, 7:10 PM ET

SYDNEY (Reuters) - Investment bank Goldman Sachs (GS.N) has raised its outlook for Chicago wheat futures by 47 percent to $13.50 a bushel after the U.S. Department of Agriculture cut projected 2007/08 U.S. wheat ending stocks.

The Goldman Sachs three-month and six-month price forecast compares with CBOT March soft red winter wheat futures closing price on Friday of $10.93 a bushel, after prices again rose by their 30-cent daily limit.

Record high wheat prices were sparked on Friday by new world agriculture supply and demand estimates by the USDA, which cut projected U.S. wheat stocks at the end of the 2007/08 marketing year on May 31 to 272 million bushels from its estimate of 292 million bushels in January.

This is the lowest levels of stocks since 1947/48, Goldman Sachs said in its Commodities Watch report, issued on Friday.

Acute world wheat shortages, after crop problems in both the northern and southern hemispheres and strong export demand, have sparked wheat price rises on U.S. futures exchanges by the daily 30-cent ceiling for most of the past three weeks, causing the exchanges to raise the limit from February 12.

/... http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080211/bs_nm/wheat_futures_dc;_ylt=AsYPBmjnNf_hgtQ3xhCaS5a573QA

...

But when it comes to spectacular moves, wheat takes the cake. Prices surged to yet another record high (up 30% y-t-d), as forecasts have US stockpiles falling to the lowest level since 1948. Global supplies are said to be the lowest since 1978. Alarmingly, wheat increased the 30 cent daily limit in Chicago trading for five straight sessions, with Bloomberg reporting this week’s 16% gain as the "biggest in history''. Prices are now up 140% y-o-y. Along for the ride, soybeans rose 4% this week to a near-record ( US inventories at four-yr low), increasing one-year gains to 80%. Corn prices gained 2% (having doubled in the past two years), also trading at record highs. Production and inventory concerns saw coffee prices rise 5.8% this week to the highest level since 1999. Cocoa gained 3.8% this week (37% one-year gain).

The question remains: how much will the Chinese, Indians, Russians, American consumers and others be willing to pay for wheat and other vital commodities? For energy? For stores of value such as gold, silver and the other (increasingly) precious metals in an age of unregulated, unrestrained, unanchored, electronic-based, securities-based, and market-driven global "money" and credit. With trillions of dollar liquidity sloshing vagariously around the global financial "system", there is clearly more than ample high-octane inflationary fuel to destabilize markets for myriad essential things of limited supply. And, increasingly, there is talk of problematic margin calls and derivative-related issues impacting commodities trading conditions.

The talk is of trading dislocations and nervous "bankers" pulling away from the financing of hedging activities in various markets. Or, in short, we are witnessing a precarious ratcheting up of monetary disorder - in a multitude of key markets and on a global basis.

At the heart of monetary disorder, we have a leveraged speculating community increasingly on the ropes. January was a tough month for the hedge fund community. In particular, it appears the (overhyped) "long/short" (holding both long and short positions) and (overhyped) "quant" funds had an especially tough go of it. To begin the New Year, last year’s favorite stocks (ie technology, emerging markets, energy, and utilities) were hammered, while the heavily shorted sectors have significantly outperformed (ie homebuilders, banks, retailers, "consumer discretionary", and transports). The yen and Swiss franc (currencies traders had shorted to finance higher yielding "carry trades") have rallied. Even the dollar has rallied somewhat. Many speculators have been (caught) short commodities, having expected negative ramifications from the bursting of the US credit bubble. Others have been caught over-exposed to emerging equities and debt markets. And, increasingly, it appears various trades throughout the complex corporate credit arena have run amuck.

Friday, various indices of corporate credit risk moved to record highs, including the previously stalwart "investment grade" sector. Leveraged loan prices fell to record lows late in the week, as talk of further bank and hedge fund liquidations captivated the marketplace. While the status of the (monoline) credit insurers is now a central focus, behind the scenes there is increasing angst at the prospect for a disorderly unwind of various leveraged trading strategies in corporate credits and credit derivatives. "Synthetic" CDOs (collateralized debt obligations) - pools of credit default swaps and other derivatives - are especially vulnerable and problematic for the system. In short, the corporate credit crisis took a decided turn for the worse this week. There is, with the economy sinking rapidly and the leveraged speculating community faltering abruptly, little prospect at this point for stabilization. The downside of the credit cycle is attaining overwhelming momentum.

The Wall Street punditry seems to go out of its way to get things wrong. The latest talk is that the market will simply look over the "valley" and begin focusing on a recovery from what will be, at worst, a brief and mild recession. The relative strong performance of the banks, retailers, homebuilders, and transports is accepted as confirmation of the bullish view. I’ll instead take the view that the recent major squeeze in the heavily shorted stocks and sectors is only further destabilizing and indicative of dynamics troubling to the leveraged speculating community and the credit system more generally. "Hedges" have stopped working, creating a backdrop of angst and forced liquidations.

/continues... http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JB12Dj02.html

By Antal E Fekete

Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest writers to have their say. Please click here if you are interested in contributing.

People tend to think in terms of black-and-white. Many think that either hyperinflation or deflation is in store for the dollar; tertium non datur (no third possibility given). I would say tertium datur. The third possibility is a hybrid of hyperinflation and deflation. I described this scenario in my previous article (Dollar needs mint freshener, Asia Times Online, February 7, 2008). It is possible, even probable, that we shall witness collapsing world trade and collapsing world employment together with competitive currency devaluations, as the three superpowers - the US, China and Russia - compete in trying to corner gold. The lure of gold is very strong. "There is no fever like gold fever" and, contrary to conventional wisdom, governments are especially susceptible.

A large part of the problem is that the central bank is helpless in the face of bond speculation. The Fed is no sorcerer. It is the sorcerer’s apprentice. It can pump unlimited amounts of "liquidity" into the system but cannot make it flow uphill. As we shall see, new dollars flow to the bond market causing a lot of mischief there, instead of flowing to the commodity market as hoped by the Fed.

Up to now, leading commodities have outperformed gold. That could change. A select few commodities might continue in the bull-mode for a time, although gold could easily beat them. Most other commodities might go into a bear-mode similar to that of the commodity markets of the 1930’s. If that’s what was in store, then most investors would be totally lost. They would be navigating without a compass. There would be endless debates whether the country is experiencing deflation of hyperinflation. Your motto in this hybrid scenario should be: "expect the unexpected".

Of course, the Fed will keep printing dollars like crazy. Few of them, if any, will go into commodities. Indeed, most of the newly created dollars will go into bond speculation. Why? Because commodity bulls are running into headwind and face grave risks. By contrast, bond bulls enjoy a pleasant tailwind. Bond speculation is virtually risk-free. Under our irredeemable dollar, bond bulls have a built-in advantage. The Fed has to make periodic trips to the bond market in order to make its regular open-market purchases of bonds to augment the money supply. In order to win, all the bond speculator has to do is to stalk the Fed and forestall its bond purchases. This is the Achillean heel of Keynesianism: it makes bond speculation inherently asymmetric favoring the bulls, and that will ultimately derail the economy on the deflation-side of the track.

Uncle Sam in agony
Russia is not as enigmatic as China. The Russians’ game is gold. China is the big unknown. It looks as if China prepares to corner silver. Will the Chinese force a silver standard on their trading partners? It is quite possible that their pile of paper profits in silver is already so huge that they can well afford to gamble. They find trading Treasury bonds most profitable. Indeed, theirs is the greatest US T-bond portfolio ever, anywhere. They can overwhelm any opponent bidding against them.

Just think about it. The financial destiny of the US is in China’s hand. The good news is that the Chinese have a vested interest in keeping the bond bull charging. They also have a vested interest in keeping the dollar on the life-support system. The bad news is that the Chinese insist that it is their finger that must be on the switch. Here is an incredible sight, the US being under the thumb of China. Not because the Red Army is a match for the US military, but because Uncle Sam has voluntarily put his head into the noose.

The Chinese ask: why fight shooting wars when you know that your antagonist is painting himself into a corner anyhow? They know that Uncle Sam will sooner or later start crying: "Uncle!" in agony. They have all the marbles. The marbles of saving. The marbles of producing. The marbles of silver. Maybe, one day, they will also have the marbles of gold.

The logarithmic law of deflation
Most economists are ignorant of the mathematics of depressions. They have certainly never heard of what I call the Logarithmic Law of Deflation. It states that halving interest rates brings about the same proportional increases in bond prices, regardless at what level the halving takes place. It makes no difference whether you go from 16% to 8% or from 2% to 1%, the value of long-term bonds will increase by about the same factor. It can be seen that a much smaller drop in interest rates could bring about the same proportional increase in bond prices, provided that the rates are low enough.

Why is this important? Because it gives away the secret of the deadly deflationary spiral. It is wrong to describe Fed action as cutting interest rates. We should think in terms of the Fed halving them. The bull market in bonds can go on indefinitely under the regime of the fiat currency. People assume, wrongly, that the Fed will run out of ammunition when the rate of interest is approaching zero. The bond-bull will run out of breath. Not so. The Fed will never run out of ammunition. The lower the rate, the smaller cut will do. The Fed can halve interest rates any number of times without ever reducing them to zero. The bond-bull will never run out of breath.

The trouble is that the bond-bull is the root cause of depressions. Falling interest rates create capital gains for bondholders, yes, but these gains do not come out of nowhere. They come right out of the capital losses of producers. They are the very stuff out of which depressions are made. The serial cutting of interest rates by the Fed is the grave-digger of the economy: it causes wholesale bankruptcies in the producing sector. The large-scale dismantling of the producing sector in America during the past 25 years is a direct consequence of the regime of falling interest rates.

/... http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JB12Dj07.html

That would plug one big hole in the Ship of State.

Impeaching, removing and convicting Bush and Cheney would be another.

Repairing the tax schedules third.

Universal health care, extended unemployment, public financing of green jobs in renewable energy applications and installations would do a lot to rebuild the economy.

and instead funding r&d in environmental tech, and developing public transport systems and other energy-efficient applications...

Sat Feb 9, 2008 8:08am EST
TOKYO, Feb 9 (Reuters) - The Group of Seven rich nations on Saturday approved the sale of gold by the International Monetary Fund from April as part of a broad reform of its budget, Italian Economy Minister Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa said.

"There was an acceptance among the G7 that resources should be raised by selling gold," Padoa-Schioppa, who is also the head of the IMF's steering committee (IMFC), told reporters after a meeting of G7 finance ministers in Tokyo.

He said the agreement would be finalised in April and would complement spending cuts being drawn up by the IMF under its new managing director, Dominique Strauss-Kahn.

"The current gold price means a flow of income can be ensured," Padoa-Schioppa said.

Morgan Stanley analyst Stephen Jen said the Fund held 103.4 million ounces of gold worth some $92 billion at current market prices. That was up from $23 billion just five years ago.

"The IMF is rich, if it wants to be," he wrote in a recent note to clients, issued before the G7's approval of the gold sales. "This is arguably a good time to consider selling some of these gold holdings and investing the proceeds in financial securities with positive yields."

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCNTT28198620080209?rpc=44&pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0

Obviously not American securities. Why are they selling American gold to buy foreign stocks and bonds?

And what makes them think that the rest of the world will be insulated from the crashing American Economy?

NEW YORK (AP) -- Bank of America Corp. and Chevron Corp. will replace Honeywell International Inc. and Altria Group Inc. on the Dow Jones industrial average next week, Dow Jones & Co. said Monday.

The changes to the blue chip index of 30 stocks are intended to better reflect which industries have greater influence over the economy and stock market, Dow Jones said.

Bank of America, based in Charlotte, N.C., is the nation's biggest bank by deposits, and Dow Jones said the financial industry does not have enough representation in the index.

Dow Jones said it added Chevron, an energy company based in San Ramon, Calif., to the index because of the oil and gas industry's growing importance to the global economy.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080211/dow_jones_components.html

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of American International Group Inc. hit a new 52-week low Monday after the insurer said in a regulatory filing that auditors have found material weakness in how it reports the value of certain credit default swaps, raising concerns that the company will report further losses.

Shares plunged $5.93, or 11.7 percent, to $44.75 in morning trading. Shares hit a new annual low of $44.52 earlier in the session. In the past 12 months, shares have traded between $49.40 and $72.97.

In a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday, AIG said it would need to alter the way it values credit default swaps involving collateralized debt obligations. CDOs are funds that contain slices of bonds, some of which are backed by mortgages.

AIG said it has not yet determined the amount of the decline in fair value of its credit default swap portfolio that will be included in its fourth-quarter financial statements because of difficult market conditions.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080211/apfn_aig_mover.html

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of credit-card lenders fell Monday afternoon as Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Inc. cut its rating on American Express Co. and Fox-Pitt Kelton reduced its rating on the entire credit-card sector.

American Express shares fell 36 cents to $44.62 in afternoon trading.

Earlier in the day, KBW analyst Sanjay Sakhrani cut American Express' rating to "Market Perform" from "Outperform," saying it is difficult to predict how severe deterioration in macroeconomic indicators will be in 2008.

That uncertainty coupled with weaker trends in credit quality are likely to hurt American Express' shares, Sakhrani wrote in a research note.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080211/credit_cards_sector_snap.html?.v=1

wonder if this is why they are leaning on folks so heavily.

I have no sympathy for this news story.

duplicate thread. must be high traffic.

To top it off someone is spaming that GD : P place I never go.

NEW YORK (AP) -- The New York Mercantile Exchange Inc. said Monday it set daily volume records for natural gas and heating oil futures traded on the CME Globex electronic trading platform on Feb. 8.

Natural gas futures reached 174,470 contracts, surpassing a previous record of 158,525 contracts traded on Dec. 13, 2007. Heating oil futures totaled 107,470 contracts, outnumbering the 96,799 contracts traded on June 13, 2007.

The New York Mercantile Exchange is a subsidiary of Nymex Holdings Inc.

Nymex shares gained $1.96 to $97.83 in midday trading.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080211/nymex_holdings_volume.html?.v=1

FRANKFURT (AP) -- Manufacturing powerhouse Germany posted a record trade surplus in 2007, as exports rose faster than imports. The new high was achieved despite disappointing data for December.

Both exports and imports reached their highest levels ever last year, the Federal Statistics Office said Monday, although in December the trade surplus nearly halved.

In 2007, the trade surplus was 198.8 billion euros ($288.5 billion), up from 159.0 billion euros in 2006. Exports in 2007 rose 8.5 percent to 969.1 billion euros ($1.4 billion), while imports amounted to 770.4 billion euros ($1.12 billion), a 5.0 percent rise over 2006.

The European Union was the destination for 627.6 billion euros ($910.7 billion) of German exports, while 341.5 billion euros ($495.6 billion) went to countries outside the E.U.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080211/germany_trade_surplus.html?.v=1

BRUSSELS, Belgium (AP) -- Europe has "no rational reason to fear recession," the European Commission's president said Monday.

EU Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, heading into a meeting of finance ministers from the euro zone, also said the 15 nations which share that currency must keep clear of "protectionism or futile attempts to stem financial globalization or an artificial stimulus of the economy."

Growth in the euro area will likely slow this year as the global economy faces a white-knuckle ride through a possible U.S. recession and a financial market crisis that could shrink borrowing.

But Barroso warned against too much pessimism, saying Europe was not facing the same problems as the U.S. and did not need emergency measures like the $168 billion economic stimulus plan that President Bush is expected to sign later this week.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080211/eu_finance_ministers.html?.v=1

Bush to give fresh assessment of economy

1 hour, 44 minutes ago

~snip

The economic report is an annual event — a mainstay like the State of the Union address and the presentation of a new budget to lawmakers on Capitol Hill.

Bush, who is expected to sign the stimulus package later this week, has said he thinks the basic fundamentals of the economy are stable. But he also acknowledged in a weekend broadcast interview that "the signs are troubling enough" that he felt the tax rebates he worked out with Congress were necessary. ~short article~

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080211/ap_on_go_pr_wh/bush_economy_9;_ylt=Am_CLUKjMMtUrpdrySv9jayoOrgF


looking stoned

--1776, the musical.

and in the entirely opposite context. I mean it!

NEW YORK, Feb 11 (Reuters) - Dollar-based borrowing costs between banks may increase next week, prompted by failed auctions in the municipal bond market and subprime woes that have slammed bond insurers, JPMorgan said on Monday.

A spike in the London Interbank Offered Rates (Libor) on dollar deposits could spark a fresh round of tightening in short-term credit, hurting business activities and the overall U.S. economy, JPMorgan analysts said in a research report.

Libor has fallen since December in the wake of the massive coordination between the Federal Reserve and other central banks to encourage bank lending that nearly ground to a halt amid the U.S. subprime crisis.

"Still, Libor levels remain very susceptible to market fears and to small changes in the funding landscape," the JPMorgan analysts wrote.

...

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN1163723720080211

Dow 12,240.01 57.88 (0.48%)
Nasdaq 2,320.06 15.21 (0.66%)
S&P 500 1,339.13 7.84 (0.59%)
10-Yr Bond 3.618% 0.036


NYSE Volume 3,593,617,750
Nasdaq Volume 2,138,378,000

4:25 pm : It was a Dow day on Monday. That's not a typo by the way. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was the center of attention after the managing editor for The Wall Street Journal announced changes to the composition of the average. At the same time, Dow components AIG (AIG 44.74, -5.94), Microsoft (MSFT 28.21, -0.35) and ExxonMobil (XOM 83.22, +1.51) made headlines of their own that moved the market.

With respect to the impending changes, Bank of America (BAC 42.14, -0.02) and Chevron (CVX 80.43, +1.17) will be added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, effective February 19. To make room for the new components, Altria Group (MO 72.42, -0.67) and Honeywell (HON 57.64, -0.19) are being removed.

The inclusion of the new components was predicated on the view that the financial services and oil & gas industries are playing an increasingly important role in the world economy, and hence, the added representation in the blue chip average that is looking less and less industrial was necessary.

Altria's removal was pinned on the realization that its restructuring effort leaves it too narrowly focused as a tobacco company. Honeywell, meanwhile, was targeted for removal on account of its revenues being relatively small among the industrials.

The changes were noteworthy given the historical connotations, yet they had little impact on the broader market since there are a greater number of portfolios structured around the S&P 500 versus the 30-stock Industrial Average.

As noted above AIG is one of those components and it suffered a material loss on Monday following a revelation that it still has been unable to determine the cumulative decline in the fair value of the super senior credit default portfolio of AIG Financial Products Corp. and AIG Trading Corp., and their subsidiaries. What AIG does know is that the cumulative decline in valuation, net of cash flow diversion features, stood at $5.2 billion as of Nov. 30 versus just $352 million at the end of September.

AIG's news cast a pall on the financial sector throughout the session as it fostered a new wave of concern regarding the sector's exposure to collateralized debt obligations.

Despite the drag created by the financials, which slipped 1.9%, the major indices still closed the session higher as every other economic sector, with the exception of health care, down 0.1%, ended with a gain.

The energy sector, up 2.5%, led the action as it responded favorably to a 2.1% jump in crude prices to $93.67 that followed news of a weather-related refinery shutdown in Delaware. Supply concerns stemming from a threat from Hugo Chavez that Venezuela might cut supplies to the U.S. after ExxonMobil succeeded in having $12 billion in Venezuelan oil assets frozen also played a part in the price increase.

ExxonMobil's leadership helped offset the losses in AIG and, combined with strength in the basic materials, technology, and consumer discretionary sectors, drove the S&P 500 back into positive territory after an early-morning dip that was linked to the AIG announcement.

Microsoft also weighed on things in the early-going. The software giant dipped on the report that Yahoo! (YHOO 29.87, +0.67) rejected its $44.6 billion buyout offer, saying it significantly undervalued the company. The notion that Microsoft will raise its bid to acquire Yahoo!, and an RBC Capital Markets downgrade to Sector Perform from Outperform, undercut its stock.

Volume was on the moderate side at the NYSE, which suggests there wasn't full conviction behind today's buying efforts.

(Disclosure: Briefing.com has a business relationship with Microsoft and Yahoo!)DJ30 +57.88 NASDAQ +15.21 NQ100 +1.1% R2K +0.9% SP400 +0.6% SP500 +7.84 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1449/1544/2.13 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1488/1648/1.39 bln

3:30 pm : The major indices climb to new session highs as we head into the final half-hour of trade. The stock market has spent the afternoon in positive territory after staying in the red for most of the morning.

Meanwhile, Reuters reports six U.S. lenders are going to release a plan on Tuesday to halt foreclosures for some delinquent borrowers, according to sources.

The three most actively traded stocks in the S&P 500 during this session are all trending lower. They include Microsoft (MSFT 28.26, -0.30) at a volume of 133 million, AIG (AIG 44.97, -5.71) at 86 million and Citigroup (C 25.92, -0.11) at 62 million.DJ30 +60.32 NASDAQ +19.31 SP500 +9.08 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1387/1555/1.67 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1530/1604/1.03 bln

3:00 pm : Stocks are climbing back toward their best levels of the session. Buying interest is broad-based, with the exception of financials (-1.9%), which are not participating.

Airlines (-0.5%) are managing to limit their losses despite the 1.9% gain in crude oil prices. Delta (DAL 17.97, -0.22) and Northwest (NWA 17.96, -0.49) are said to be on the path to a merger that could be completed within weeks, according to Bloomberg.com.DJ30 +34.47 NASDAQ +15.13 SP500 +5.68 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1395/1537/1.53 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1506/1610/935 mln

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