STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday May 28

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday May 28, 2008

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 238
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2684 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2409 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2700
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES &
MARKETS INDICATORS>
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON May 27, 2008

Dow... 12,548.35 +68.72 (+0.55%)
Nasdaq... 2,481.24 +36.57 (+1.50%)
S&P 500... 1,385.35 +9.42 (+0.68%)
Gold future... 907.90 -17.90 (-1.97%)
30-Year Bond 4.65% +0.09 (+1.93%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.92% +0.09 (+2.35%)






GOLD,EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact actionpost@legitgov.org

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

Retailers lining up in the crosshairs
BY FRANK BARBERA, CMT

Amid the endless gasoline headlines crossing the news this past weekend came the headline from Germany that billionaire investment guru Warren Buffett sees the USA already in recession. According to Buffett, “the US is already in a recession, which he believes will be deeper and longer than what many think”.

BERLIN (AP) — Warren Buffett, whose business and investment acumen has made him one of the world's wealthiest men, said in an interview published Sunday he believes the U.S. economy is already in a recession. Asked by Germany's Der Spiegel weekly whether he thinks the U.S. could still avoid a recession, he said that as far as the average person is concerned, it's already here. "I believe that we are already in a recession," Buffett was quoted by Spiegel as saying. "Perhaps not in the sense as defined by economists. ... But people are already feeling the effects of a recession." "It will be deeper and longer than what many think," he added.

Of course, the good folks at the BLS have managed to make sure that the ‘official data’ have been massaged enough to the upside in this election year so that, despite two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth, have been postponing the ‘official’ recession signal so far. In today’s update, we review some of the economic data released today from a bigger picture point of view to illustrate just how ‘spot on’ Mr. Buffett's comments in fact are. The primary focus of the last 12 months has been, and remains, the sinking housing market, where this month's action produced a technical bounce. Earlier today, the Commerce Department reported that New Homes sales rose by 3.3% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 526,000 units. At the same time, the government also revised March activity lower to show an even bigger drop of 11 percent to an annual rate of 509,000, which was the weakest pace for sales since April 1991, a 17 year low. Viewed through the lens of a smoothed Rate of Change, we see that New Home Sales are still very close to the lowest levels of the last 40 years, sinking to the depths of the 1980 Carter ‘Stagflationary Recession.’ Appropriate, since today’s unreported inflation rate is running close to 12%.

.....

As far as the stock market is concerned, we believe that an extended recession from here will place more downside pressure on both cyclical stocks, and on retailers. In the chart above, we plot the relative strength ratio of defensive retailers, what I call ‘recession retailers’ versus ‘discretionary retailers.’ On the defensive side, we have names like Wal-Mart, Costco, Ross Stores, Big Lots, TJX Corp, and CVS all in rising configuration, while on the downside names like Radio Shack, Pacific Sunwear, Guess, Starbucks, Whole Foods, Urban Outfitters, and Nordstrom all look overbought and vulnerable.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

08:30 Durable Orders Apr
Briefing.com 0.0%
Consensus -1.5%
Prior -0.3%

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

05. U.S. April durable-goods orders ex-defense down 0.3%
8:30 AM ET, May 28, 2008

06. U.S. April durable-goods unfilled orders up 1.0%
8:30 AM ET, May 28, 2008

07. U.S. April durable-goods shipments up 1.2%
8:30 AM ET, May 28, 2008

08. U.S. April durable goods orders ex-transportation up 2.5%
8:30 AM ET, May 28, 2008

09. U.S. April durable-goods orders down 0.5% vs fall 2.8% expec
8:30 AM ET, May 28, 2008

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN2739793820080528

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - New orders for long-lasting manufactured goods fell a smaller-than-expected 0.5 percent in April as transportation orders dipped, but a key barometer of business confidence posted a surprisingly sharp gain, government data released on Wednesday showed.

Analysts polled by Reuters were expecting durable goods orders to drop 1.0 percent as the weak U.S. economy impacts construction and motor vehicle industries.

Stripping out transportation, orders rose 2.5 percent, the biggest gain since July, the Commerce Department said. Analysts were expecting a 0.5 percent decrease.

Transportation orders were off 8 percent as civilian aircraft orders tumbled 24.4 percent.

However, non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending, jumped 4.2 percent, the biggest rise since December. Analysts had forecast that category would drop 0.5 percent after a 1.0 percent slide in March.

Electrical equipment orders surged 27.8 percent, the steepest increase on record.

Huh????

:shrug:

(sorry, really bad inside joke)

To venture a guess, I'd say that those stimulus checks have something to do with this. Figure this logic: if I were handed a lump sum of money to do with as I please, I would probably buy the items that are used constantly and very expensive to replace. It's like being handed a free washer and dryer. Or a new computer. Maybe a new stereo amplifier.

But then I'm conventional. It's not like I would spend that money on a jet ski or a ferret. I know some people have.

Hybrid automobiles. Lots of heavy electronics in those.



Only thing which makes sense.

I didn't think of that. For that measure - one can still find hybrid vehicles for sale in the online classifieds.

They're turning off analog soon and everybody has to convert.

BANGKOK, Thailand - Oil prices dropped below $127 a barrel Wednesday in Asia, extending a decline of more than $3 in the previous session on a growing sense that soaring prices have cut demand for gasoline and other fuel.

The normally busy summer driving season in the U.S. kicked off with the just-ended Memorial Day weekend, and some analysts are predicting that data will show it had a lackluster start.

.....

U.S. Energy Department data covering the weekend won't be released until next week.

The United States is the world's largest energy consumer and fluctuations in demand there can have an outsized impact on international oil prices. Also, since Americans are particularly reliant on their cars dues to a lack of mass transport in all but a few cities and they have to drive longer distances to their jobs, their consumption of gasoline is closely watched.

Late afternoon in Singapore, light, sweet crude for July delivery was down $2.15 at $126.70 a barrel in electronic trade on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell $3.34 to settle at $128.85 a barrel Tuesday, the first day of trade after the Memorial Day holiday.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

JAKARTA (AFP) - Indonesia will withdraw from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries after years of declining exports, the energy minister said Wednesday even as other producers cash in on soaring oil prices.
ADVERTISEMENT

The only Southeast Asian member of the cartel has become a net oil importer and will not bother to renew its OPEC membership at the end of this year, Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Purnomo Yusgiantoro said.

.....

But the minister said Indonesia, one of the smallest OPEC members, could rejoin if production increased in line with an ongoing effort to boost capacity after years of declining investment.

.....

While other members have enjoyed windfall profits on the back of high global oil prices, Indonesia has been unable to get enough of its 4.37 billion barrels in proven reserves to the market.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080528/bs_afp/opecoilindonesia_080528104252

The boss of Shell UK, the London-based arm of the Anglo-Dutch oil company, has warned the era of "easy oil" is over.

In an interview with the BBC, James Smith said that energy companies were having to go to ever more extreme lengths to sustain production.

Shell has been criticised for making huge profits after oil and fuel prices surged to record breaking levels.

.....

Following the record profits enjoyed by Shell and its rivals, critics of the firms have called for a windfall tax on oil companies, something Mr Smith said may only worsen supply problems in the long run.

"A windfall tax might be fair if we had our feet up and didn't know what to do - but we're ploughing the money back into technology," he explained.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7421792.stm

---

With new reserves so difficult to find and extract - it makes sense to me that research into developing energy sources beyond fossil fuels should be pursued.

based in the speculators bidding it up. I would like them to pay a windfall tax on the profit. The CEO's are getting money that they did noting extra to earn. This wind fall tax money should be put into developing alternative forms of energy development. The other alternative is to take away the tax breaks the oil companies currently receive. You can't have your cake and eat it too.

If these big oil co want that money back they should use it to develop alternatives. Their only alternative is to go the way the auto industry appears to be going. Those that can't make the changes will perish. And there is no need-the term Yankee ingenuity is more than a cliche. We just need to start applying ourselves to the problem.

CHARLESTON, W.Va. - Unsuspecting property owners around the country are getting trampled in an old-fashioned land rush by natural gas companies and speculators trying to lock up long-ignored drilling rights quickly and cheaply.

Stories of fast-talking industry representatives using scare tactics to strong-arm people into signing lowball leases are popping up in rural areas and suburbs from New York to West Virginia to parts of Indiana and Texas. All sit atop largely untapped natural gas deposits made suddenly viable — and valuable — by soaring prices and improved drilling techniques.

West Virginia farmer and convenience store owner Brad Castle is still smarting from his experience.

Castle and his father thought they were getting a windfall when they signed a $5-an-acre lease and promise of 12.5 percent royalties for the gas rights to 800 acres they own near Rowlesburg in northern West Virginia. The process started when a landman — an industry term for a person who secures mineral rights — knocked on their door.

.....

As for the kind of half-truths Castle was told — landowners can be reimbursed for gas sucked from beneath their property — McMahon said that's not universal — and not true. "Some landmen are being fair, but sharp bargainers."

McMahon recently started a campaign to educate landowners about mineral leasing through the West Virginia Surface Owners' Rights Organization. Among other things, McMahon advises landowners to take their time and refuse to be rushed into signing leases. He also suggests rejecting standard leases in favor of documents containing protections against roads, potential pollutants such as saltwater injections, and use of depleted wells for gas storage.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080528/ap_on_bi_ge/land_rush

NEW YORK (Fortune) -- It's hard to imagine why ExxonMobil shareholders are so unhappy. After all, the world's largest publicly-owned energy company rode the surge in oil prices to a record $40 billion in earnings last year, making it by far the most profitable Fortune 500 company. Shares are up 10% in the last year, while the S&P500 has fallen by just as much.

But disgruntled shareholders want more - a lot more. They want ExxonMobil (XOM, Fortune 500) to overhaul its management structure, promote renewable energy, help solve the problem of global warming, support its gay and lesbian workers, and to oppose a ban on women members at the Augusta National club, home of the Exxon-sponsored Master's golf tournament.

The growing discontent should make for a good show at ExxonMobil's annual shareholder meeting Wednesday in Dallas, where 19 shareholder resolutions are on the ballot. Granted, shareholder proposals aren't binding, but this year ExxonMobil's disenchanted investors have a key ally: Descendants of John D. Rockefeller, the founder of Standard Oil, which evolved into ExxonMobil, who are deeply unhappy about the company's direction.

.....

On the issue of capital investment, the Rockefellers might have a point. Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500), Shell (RDSA), and BP all invested more than 50% of their cash flow in capital expenditures last year, according to PFC Energy, a global energy consulting firm. Exxon invested 26% and spent much, much more than the other majors paying dividends and buying back shares.

.....

Concern about ExxonMobil's growth strategy is one reason the Rockefellers want the job of chairman and CEO split in two. The family argues that an independent chairman will serve as check on current chairman and CEO Rex Tillerson. A resolution calling for an independent chair won 40 percent of the shareholder vote last year and the Rockefeller support (and attendant publicity) could deliver a majority.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/27/news/companies/exxonmobil_rockefellers.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008052715

:popcorn:

NEW YORK - Not since George H.W. Bush ran the White House have consumers felt so downbeat about the economy. And the catalyst for much of the gloom — the housing slump — shows no signs of abating, new data Tuesday showed.

With Americans losing sleep over rising inflation and tight credit, the housing market is unlikely to rebound soon, spelling more pain for the economy.

.....

Consumer sentiment fell to its lowest level since October 1992 when the economy was coming out of a recession, the New York-based Conference Board said Tuesday. Economists monitor sentiment because consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the nation's economic activity.

.....

U.S. home prices dropped at the sharpest rate in two decades during the first quarter, the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller national index showed Tuesday, a somber indication that the housing slump continues to deepen.

Prices tumbled more than 14 percent during the quarter and are at levels not seen since the third quarter of 2004. While the index is still up 60 percent from 2000, millions of homeowners who bought in the past four years with little or no money down now owe more than their homes are worth.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080527/ap_on_bi_ge/economy

---

"The only way the economy is not going to recede is if someone cooks the books."

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN2740042220080528

The Federal Reserve is intent on not letting inflation spiral out of control, even as the economy teeters on the brink of recession, a top Fed policy-maker said on Tuesday, indicating that more interest rate cuts are not in the offing.

"This is not the 1970s, but we can't let it get to be the 1970s. Our behavior is critical to that. We have to be the barrier" to high inflation, Janet Yellen, president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, told reporters after a speech.
/snip

*The: What is she smoking?(and can I have some?) snip:

The rate cuts, along with the federal tax rebate stimulus program, "should be sufficient to promote a step up to moderate economic growth later this year," Yellen said.

She said the tax rebate checks should make a notable difference in the second and third quarters of this year.
/snip

Yeah, the cigarette and beer industry will be keeping us afloat with all those stimulus checks coming in:

http://www.charlotte.com/business/story/641536.html
worth a read, if only for the black bile and other humors:

`I GOT A FERRET!'
Stimulus checks trigger a run on frivolity
In time of worry, many taxpayers grab chance to spend money on fun

JOSH SHAFFER
(Raleigh) News & Observer

Nothing gets people giddy quite like free money from the government.

With stimulus checks landing in mailboxes like quarters from a slot machine, many of them as high as $1,800, the nation's shopping list reads like the makings of a champagne-fueled binge.

Artist Kirk Adam wants a Honda Ruckus scooter with its eye-catching, stripped-down frame. "It looks like a skeleton," said Adam, who has a studio in Raleigh.

Go to the Web site www.howispentmystimulus.com and the loot gets wilder. One woman says she decided to fuel the sputtering economy by getting a pair of diamond-shaped tattoos on her elbows. Others used their gift from Uncle Sam to buy a John Deere tractor. A Glock handgun. Whiskey. Skydiving lessons. One woman in Utah declares, "I got a ferret!"

book marked to read later. Loved the folks that donated it to other political candidates. Thanks George Bush.

Washington, D.C. - The number of Americans earning $200,000 or more who paid no federal income tax more than doubled in 2005, just-released Internal Revenue Service numbers show. But changes by Congress, not illicit tax shelters, explain the big jump, according to an IRS analysis.

.....

A record 3.6 million 2005 tax returns (2.7% of those filed), reported adjusted gross income of $200,000 or more, up from 3 million returns in 2004. If the $200,000 "high-income" definition had been adjusted for inflation, the cutoff in 2005 would have been $686,467, and only half a million tax filers would have qualified.

In 2005, 7,389 high adjusted-gross-income (AGI) return filers paid no U.S. income tax, up from just 2,833 in 2004.

Much of that increase was due to a change Congress made in late 2004 to the tax treatment of U.S. citizens living abroad. Expatriates can reduce or wipe out their regular U.S. income tax bills by claiming a credit for the foreign taxes they must pay. But until 2005, this foreign tax credit could offset only 90% of the alternative minimum tax they owed. That led to bitter complaints by Americans living in countries such as Canada who argued they were being subjected to double taxation in violation of the U.S.' own income tax treaties.

....

The new report also shows the impact of the Bush-era tax cuts on the effective tax rate higher-income folks pay. In 2000, high earners paid, overall, 26% of their AGI in federal income tax. By 2005, that had fallen to 22%.

http://www.forbes.com/business/2008/05/27/taxes-congress-amt-biz-beltway-cz_jn_0527beltway.html

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN2832474920080528

Bear Stearns Cos plans to turn over documents to securities regulators showing that financial giants like Goldman Sachs Group, Citadel Investment Group and Paulson & Co cut their exposure to the securities firm before its collapse, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday.

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), as part of an inquiry into events surrounding the implosion of Bear Stearns in March, has sought and will examine these trading records, people familiar with the matter told the newspaper.

The SEC is expected to use the data to determine whether any trading activity was improperly coordinated, constituted manipulation or otherwise contributed to Bear Stearns' collapse, the report said.





Of course it was part of the original bailout deal, but I'm wondering what little spiders they might find?

On the whole, it sounds like an economic hit job.

And seeing as how all of Bear Stearn's loot was safely stashed offshore... Who better to act the goat, scapegoat that is.

Now for the illusionary 'investigation' (Note quotation marks, which imply it's not really an investigation. Merely an
obfuscation and an exercise to make sure they don't have their ass hanging out of their pants anywhere. Which is kind
of funny due to the fact it's hanging out for all to see, but, with no Justice Dept... Nothing will come of it.)

So, now on to other news... Did anybody hear that some rehab frequenting actress kissed some D.J. chick?

In Judaic tradition, the scapegoat was a sin offering to Jehovah.

"He shall take the two goats and present them before the LORD at the doorway of the tent of meeting.
Aaron shall cast lots for the two goats, one lot for the LORD and the other lot for the scapegoat.
Then Aaron shall offer the goat on which the lot for the LORD fell, and make it a sin offering.
But the goat on which the lot for the scapegoat fell shall be presented alive before the LORD, to make atonement upon it, to send it into the wilderness as the scapegoat."

They would kill and roast one goat and place all their sins upon the other then take it and send it off into the desert.

According to Easton's 1897 Bible Dictionary, the tradition was later modified a little:

…the man in whose charge the goat was sent out, while setting him free, was instructed to push the unhappy beast down the slope of the mountain side, which was so steep as to insure the death of the goat, whose bones were broken by the fall. The reason of this barbarous custom was that on one occasion the scapegoat returned to Jerusalem after being set free, which was considered such an evil omen that its recurrence was prevented for the future by the death of the goat.

When do they plan on doing that to the movers and shakers at Bear Stearn's?

Similar to that experienced by Ken Lay.

Hmm... Colorado... Mountains... Nah! :tinfoilhat:




(P.S. Thanks for that very interesting tid-bit, TalkingDog.)

they are called the Sin Eaters. I saw an episode on Night Gallery and it was so compelling an ideas, I could never get it out of my head.

"The term sin-eater refers to a person who, through ritual means, would take on by means of food and drink the sins of a deceased person, thus absolving his or her soul and allowing that person to rest in peace. In the study of folklore sin-eating is considered a form of religious magic.

This practice was said to have been practiced in parts of England and Scotland, and allegedly survived until modern times in Wales. Traditionally, it is performed by a beggar and certain villages maintained their own sin-eaters. They would be brought to the dying person's bedside, where a relative would place a crust of bread on the breast of the dying and pass a bowl of ale to him over the corpse. After praying or reciting the ritual, he would then drink and remove the bread from the breast and eat it, the act of which would remove the sin from the dying person and take it into himself."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sin-eater


It is a straight shot to the Pearly Gates for the sinner and of course-the Sin Eater is stuck with the sin....I can only imagine what some of these folks are toting around with them. Couldn't pay me enough.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Banks say they want to help troubled homeowners, but they are delaying deals that could save everyone - including the lenders themselves - a lot of time and money.

Lenders are taking much longer than necessary to approve short sales, according to Duane LeGate, of House Buyers Network, a short sale specialist.

In a short sale, a homeowner who cannot keep up with their loan asks the lender to take a dollar amount less than what is owed on a home's mortgage, and forgive the remainder of the unpaid debt.

So if a borrower has a mortgage balance of $100,000 and finds a seller who will pay $95,000 for the house, the lender agrees to accept that $95,000 and close out the loan.

.....

Ideally in a short sale, everyone wins. Borrowers avoid the ugly foreclosure process that destroys their credit, while lenders recoup more of their costs than they would by spending the time and money it takes to kick an owner out and resell the property.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/28/real_estate/short_sales_long_waits/index.htm?postversion=2008052806

I am interested in purchasing a short sale townhome.

There I was watching Suze Orman and she brought it up.


The crux was if a borrower can get the lender to agree to a 'Short Sale' the borrower is -NOT- responsible for
the difference between the original loan and the amount of the sale. The Catch-22 was before most lenders will
agree to a short sale they typically wait until after a missed payment, where upon... Other more draconian rules apply. Interesting to note that when mortgage lenders are dealing with borrowers instead of each other and the Treasury... They're all about the RULES!


Aside: I'm finding Suze to be O.K! I know she's been accused of often stating the obvious, but, from what I've
observed it works.


Suze Orman: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suze_Orman

Dave Ramsey, has frequently recommended short sale as an alternative to foreclosure for some time now but from the experiences that folks went though herr in Houston, banks and then S&L didn't want to deal at first because they felt that they were owed the full price and wanted to be punitive with folks. After a while, they learned that you couldn't get a pint of blood from a little turnip. Boy did they change. They did every thing under the sun to keep folks in houses (it was balloon payments instead of ARM), but by then it was too late to help most folks. It took us 7-8 years to pick up again. Time will tell this go round.

The 2 people I recommend for general advice are Dave Ramsey and Suzi Orman. They have good common sense and I have been watching both for a while. Smart Money has some great folks too. David Bach is a good read too (I am basically lazy on some financial aspects and I like his auto pilot savings method). His latte factor gets you thinking. But of all these advisors...the one that helped the most when the 'rubber meets the road' was Amy Dacyczyn and her newsletters that became books The Tightwad Gazette. Those were my well worn best friends in hard times. The recipes, reassuring words, and funny stories made the hard times not seem so bleak. I bought the hard bound books and they are cherished reminders that the difference between poor and down on your luck is between your ears. Traveling overseas to a third world country, I really saw poor. Believe you me, we are just down on our luck.

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN2318527720080528

Surging oil prices have captured the attention of consumers and leaders around the globe, but General Electric Co is already on to what it thinks will be the world's next big worry -- water.

The company said on Wednesday it aims to cut its water usage 20 percent by 2012, a move that should reduce its annual operating costs by $15 million to $20 million.

"There is going to be a price on water that is going to reflect its scarcity, and today it doesn't," Lorraine Bolsinger, vice president of GE's Ecomagination green-business push, said in a phone interview. "We're going to see that change over time, certainly in the emerging markets."

With businesses ranging from manufacturing jet engines to commercial lending, GE has made green business a major thrust for the past three years. Last year it generated revenue of $14 billion -- 8 percent of its total -- through the Ecomagination program, representing sales of products ranging from compact fluorescent light bulbs to electricity-producing wind turbines.

/snip

Now it's all nice and sweet and salable and eco-friendly. How long before it's a bubble?

And I was just reading about Hydraulic Despotism.

In terms of oil, yes, it makes life easier, but we sure as hell survived a few thousand millennia without it. You can't really say the same about water.

And it distresses me to no end that I don't have a claim to even a fraction of the water under the land we own. I can understand the States interest in avoiding hoarding. But being a hill-bred southerner, my social and familial heritage provides me with a deep and abiding distrust of the gub'ment and their intentions.

That's the biggest bully right there. All that spit about "by the people, for the people and of the people" is just water itself since some people are more equal than others.

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/364800_climate28.html

Shocked by rising food prices? Get used to it -- and be ready for water shortages, too, says a sweeping new scientific report rounding up likely effects of climate change on the United States' land, water and farms over the next half-century.

Some effects already can be felt, says the report released Tuesday, which synthesizes results of more than 1,000 individual studies.

snip:
Because of climate disruption of agriculture, consumers can count on higher food prices, researchers said in a news conference. An example of the kind of crop disruption to expect: This spring's unusually wet weather in Eastern Washington discouraged bees from flying. That led to fewer cherry trees being fertilized through pollination. Result: A smaller cherry harvest -- and higher prices.


snip:
"I can tell you my constituents do not relish a sport-fishing season for jellyfish instead of salmon," he said.

/snip


Last fall I heard a report on NPR about all the great jellyfish recipes. Even then I said to myself: Catapulting the Propaganda. The ocean fish are dying off and the jellyfish are surviving. They are just trying to put the meme out there so we won't be shocked at the grocery store.

God, I freakin' HATE these MF-ing bastards. Not just ShrubCo, but every freakin' greedy bastard that put us here so they could, what, buy an island?????

Every time this sh*t happens, it makes me feel like I'm in this movie:




/off to do something about my blood sugar and blood pressure.

Laters.....

Not that it's gonna do much good with Harper giving away the store.

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 72.581 Change +0.185 (+0.26%)

US Dollar Finds Traction Despite Very Weak Data - A Sign Of Strength?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/US_Dollar_Finds_Traction_Despite_1211931916656.html

The dollar was inundated with economic releases today; yet the solid wall of bearish market-movers wouldn’t curb a steady dollar rebound. The return of US volatility from the extended holiday weekend allowed traders to reevaluate last week’s anti-dollar run and put the single currency back on an even keel. Ignoring the short-term response to today’s calendar though, the fundamentals certainly test the Fed’s optimistic forecast for a rebound in economic activity through the second half of the year. Among the many high-level reports, the top release was the Conference Board’s reading of consumer confidence for May. Economists had already projected a significant drop from the report after the University of Michigan marked a 26-year low in its own indicator. However, the sentiment gauge would still surprise with a greater than expected decline to 57.2 - the worst reading since October 1992. What’s more, Americans were growing more pessimistic on employment and income trends, which in turn depressed their plans to make major purchases. Realistically, if the world’s largest economy is too avoid an extended period of negative growth, the consumer sector will need to spend. In other news, the Richmond Fed manufacturing activity index joined the previously released Empire and Philly regional numbers by dropping back into contractionary territory. On the other hand, the session’s housing number were somewhat mixed. The lagging S&P/Case Schiller home price index merely confirmed what other leading indicators have shown. In the year through March, the composite inflation indicator slumped 14.4 percent to uphold the trend of consistently declining price from January 2007 and set a new record low. From the more timely new home sales report however, a major downward revision to March’s figure allowed a 3.3 percent jump in purchases over April. The components were more encouraging with prices rising 1.5 percent and inventories pulling back - both suggestive of improvement in activity. Looking ahead to tomorrow’s fundamental offerings, the number of indicators drops, but their potency does not. The durable goods orders gauge for April will measure capital investment while energy prices continually set record highs and consumer spending forecasts hit new lows.

...more...

US Fed: Inflation Expectations Rise as Oil, Food Prices Prove to Be More Convincing Than Bernanke

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/US_Fed__Inflation_Expectations_Rise_1211924640255.html

Recent commentary by various Federal Reserve members has only supported the case that the FOMC has no intention of cutting rates further in the near-term despite significant downside risks to growth. The comments are especially pertinent given last week’s release of the minutes from the FOMC’s April 29-30 meeting. Indeed, rocketing commodity prices have raised upside inflation risks substantially. Even worse, medium to long term inflation expectations have started to rise, suggesting that the public is not confident that the Federal Reserve can contain price pressures. While many businesses have not been quick to pass through rising input costs to consumers, the end of this practice may be nearing as profit margins get squeezed.

Donald Kohn, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman

“My expectations for moderating inflation and limited spillover effects from commodity price increases depend critically on the continued stability of inflation expectations…If longer-term inflation expectations were to become unmoored--whether because of a protracted period of elevated headline inflation or because the public misinterpreted the recent substantial policy easing as suggesting that monetary policy makers had a greater tolerance for inflation than previously thought--then I believe that we would be facing a more serious situation.” – May 20, 2008

“The Federal Open Market Committee will be monitoring inflation developments closely for any sign that our longer-run objective of promoting price stability is threatened… we also need to continue to carefully assess whether, after a period of near-term softness in economic activity, the economy is likely to be on track for sustained economic expansion over time….it is my judgment that monetary policy appears to be appropriately calibrated for now to promote both rising employment and moderating inflation over the medium term.” – May 20, 2008

Kevin Warsh, Federal Reserve Governor

“Let me recount just a few of our challenges: significant market turmoil, unsatisfactory economic growth, historic housing price declines, dramatic commodity price run-ups, risk of a secular reversal of global inflation trends, sharp changes in exchange rates, uneven and unprecedented contours of economic growth--and policy responses--across major trading partners, and significant domestic debate regarding optimal economic and regulatory policies…. Inflation has been elevated for some time and prices of commodities are surging. I find these trends particularly vexing at a time when global demand growth, most likely, has slowed.” – May 21, 2008

“In my judgment, the changes in credit availability during the past six years have less to do with the prevailing stance of policy and more to do with changes in financial markets and financial intermediaries. Returning the economy to equilibrium requires actions more befitting than changes in the federal funds rate alone. The lending facilities created and employed by the Fed are likely proving useful in this regard.” – May 21, 2008

Alan Greenspan, Former Federal Reserve Chairman

“I still believe there is a greater than 50 per cent probability of recession…that probability has receded a little and I think the probability of a severe recession has come down markedly.” – May 26, 2008

...more...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080528/ap_on_bi_ge/anheuser_busch_future?_ylt=AjwWZtW6uJ_qwF3WYDc4Bfpv24cA

ST. LOUIS - Residents here have grown accustomed to seeing local corporations gobbled up by larger outside firms. But losing Anheuser-Busch Cos. could be the cruelest cut of all.

The nation's largest brewery has long been a point of pride as a hometown attraction. The company's massive red-brick brewery draws tourists from around the country to see the Clydesdale horse stables, brewing vats and Busch family memorabilia dating back generations.

Reports that the company might be purchased by Belgium-based brewer InBev SA have residents worried they might lose a company as closely identified with St. Louis as the iconic Gateway Arch.

<snip>

There's good reason to worry that InBev will make dramatic changes if the deal goes through, said Juli Niemann, an analyst with Smith Moore & Co. in St. Louis. While Anheuser-Busch has made strides to cut costs in the face of rising ingredient prices, InBev has a reputation for making new operations as lean as possible.

"The way InBev does it, they send in the surgeons and their scalpels are sharp. And they cut and cut," Niemann said. Virtually every administrative job at Anheuser-Busch headquarters could be on the chopping block, she said. InBev would likely keep the company's distribution network in place and probably wouldn't close the St. Louis Brewery to tourism that helps build the brand name, she said.

...more...

(fixed link on edit)

NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks headed for a higher open Wednesday after a government report showed orders for big ticket items declined less than expected last month.

A decline in oil prices also appeared to help stock futures.

The Commerce Department's report that orders for durable goods -- which include aircraft and machinery but also consumer items like cars, refrigerators and computers -- slipped 0.5 percent cheered investors. Excluding transportation, orders rose 2.5 percent -- the steepest increase in nine months. And orders for electrical equipment and appliances jumped 27.8 percent, the largest-ever increase.

The numbers appeared to help quell some investors' concerns about the economy. Wall Street has worried that high energy price have been hurting both businesses and their customers. Hesitation among shoppers isn't what Wall Street wants as consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080528/wall_street.html

Stock index futures were indicating a mildly higher open Wednesday as more losses for oil futures continued to restore traders' confidence in equities.

S&P 500 futures were adding 2 points to 1387 and were around 1 point above fair value. Futures on the Nasdaq 100 were up 6 points at 1999 and were also about a point over fair value.

Last time out, the broad indices all booked gains amid deflating oil futures, even in the wake of uneven economic and corporate news. Trading volume, though, was thin. In the end, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 69 points to 12,548, and the S&P 500 had risen 9 points to 1385. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 37 points to 2481.

As the new day began, oil kept pulling back and, at one point, reached a one-week low of $126.37 a barrel. Recently, futures were losing $1.73 to $127.12. The United States Oil (USO - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) exchange-traded fund was down 2%.

http://www.thestreet.com/s/falling-oil-props-up-stock-futures/markets/marketstory/10418610.html?puc=googlefi&cm_ven=GOOGLEFI&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

May 28 (Bloomberg) -- Kohl's Corp. is charging ahead with a campaign to open dozens of stores and capture higher-income customers, at a time when J.Crew Group Inc. Chief Executive Officer Mickey Drexler says there are too many retailers and Talbots Inc. and Macy's Inc. have closed locations.

By pushing designer-label bargains such as $88 Vera Wang dresses and $175 Ralph Lauren Chaps blazers, the discounter is working to grab business from retailers including J.C. Penney Co. and Macy's. Sales at Kohl's will rise 3.5 percent in fiscal 2009, driven by an 8 percent addition to the number of stores, estimates compiled by Bloomberg show. At the older, predominantly mall-based operations of J.C. Penney, revenue will fall 2.3 percent, the estimates indicate.

.....

Even after earnings declined 27 percent in the first quarter -- about half as much as J.C. Penney's -- Kohl's is boosting its spending on marketing to win a disproportionate share of the money 130 million U.S. households will receive in tax rebate checks between April and July.

In particular, Kohl's has set its sights on high-end consumers. In September, the retailer introduced Simply Vera by designer Vera Wang, its most expensive label, amid skepticism that the prices were too high. Sales of Vera Wang are performing ``extremely well,'' Kohl's President Kevin Mansell said on a May 15 conference call.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=amv8jR0axJKQ&refer=home

9:33
Dow 12,589.55 Up 41.20 (0.33%)
Nasdaq 2,490.37 Up 9.13 (0.37%)
S&P 500 1,388.37 Up 3.02 (0.22%)
10-Yr Bond 3.976% Up 0.055
NYSE Volume 88,550,382.812
Nasdaq Volume 58,994,660.156

11:57
Dow 12,532.72 Down 15.63 (0.12%)
Nasdaq 2,473.66 Down 7.58 (0.31%)
S&P 500 1,381.69 Down 3.66 (0.26%)
10-Yr Bond 3.996% Up 0.075
NYSE Volume 1,417,744,875
Nasdaq Volume 727,651,562.5

10:30 am : Stocks continue to push lower as selling pressure intensifies. All three of the major indices are now in negative territory, trading just above the morning's worst levels.

The drop in stock prices follows a rebound in oil prices. Crude had fallen below $126 per barrel in early electronic trading, but is now showing a 0.5% gain and trading at $129.50 per barrel.

Oil's rebound has prompted buyers to enter the energy sector (+0.2%), which had been the worst performing economic sector this morning. Now, financials (-1.6%) are underperforming the other sectors.DJ30 -10.26 NASDAQ -10.47 SP500 -3.48 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1429/1080/389 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1555/1319/224 mln

10:05 am : After opening in positive fashion, the stock market has fallen into negative ground. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are showing losses, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average continues to show a slight gain.

Supporting early buying interest were better-than-expected earnings per share results from Chico's FAS (CHS 7.53, +0.36) and American Eagle Outfitters (AEO 18.30, +1.08). Dollar Tree (DLTR 34.65, +0.87) also reported an earnings per share surprise.DJ30 +18.16 NASDAQ -2.63 SP500 -0.52 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1156/1196/232 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1301/1469/144 mln

Suddenly, it seems, we're getting hit from all directions.

Energy and food prices are soaring. The housing market continues to collapse. Government revenue is falling, and taxes are rising. Airlines are jacking up fares and fees while reducing service. Banks are pulling credit lines. Auto companies are cutting production once again. Even investment bankers are losing their jobs.

The tendency is to see these as separate developments, each with its own causes and dynamic. Fundamentally, however, they are all part of the same story -- the story of the global economy purging itself of large and unsustainable imbalances that for a time allowed many Americans to think they were richer than they really were.

Put another way, residential real estate is finding a new equilibrium, that magical place in the economist's imagination where supply and demand of houses and mortgages come back into some sort of rough balance at a lower price.

But the thing to remember is that it's not just residential real estate. The same factors that were behind the housing bubble were also at work, to varying degrees, in the auto bubble, the commercial real estate bubble, the travel bubble, the college tuition bubble, the retail bubble, the Web 2.0 bubble and most recently the commodities bubble. Unlike housing, which began losing steam two years ago, these other sectors have just begun the painful process of repricing and finding a new balance between supply and demand.

more...
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/27/AR2008052703077.html?hpid=topnews

"The government's failure to develop a comprehensive energy policy is causing U.S. industry to lose ground when it comes to global competitiveness, and our own domestic markets are now starting to see demand destruction throughout the U.S.," Dow Chief Executive and Chairman Andrew Liveris said in a statement.

EVERYONE KNOWS the booooosh administration did not FAIL to develop a comprehensive energy policy. They developed one all right -- to raise the profits of Dickie's and Georgie's oil buddies, whether or not it killed what was left of the U.S. manufacturing base or the even less that was left of the American middle class.

Failure my ass!

:sarcasm: in case anyone didn't get it. . . . .



Tansy Gold

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/060c5c38-2c17-11dd-9861-000077b07658,Authorised=false.html


Here is a link....possibly to the full article?
http://royaldutchshellplc.com/2008/05/28/ubs-tells-unit-staff-to-avoid-us-visits-shell-cfo-peter-voser-is-a-director-of-the-scandal-hit-swiss-bank/

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/5/28/71936/7339/767/524023


and this...

A former employee is believed to be helping the investigation:


Maybe Phil Gramm should stay away, too.

McCain economic policy shaped by lobbyist
Swiss bank paid McCain co-chair to push agenda on U.S. mortgage crisis

Oh dear...

Sweet guy.

*tsk*

But, never fear! The second... third... fourth... n-th homes, boats, aircraft... & etc. are all still negotiable.

:eyes:

Break out the :popcorn: !

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24844889


My apologies if this has been posted previously. I'm briefly checking in this morning.

:hi:

Phil Gramm is a piece of work - looking all official and serious in his dark suit. He needs to wear the bandit mask though. He looks strange without it.

Maybe folks will realize that McCain was with the Keating 5 scandal and something about the S&L housing bust, say who was the President then....:think:


God, you'd think they would be more original. Wonder if UBS=BCCI.

Some background info in case people aren't aware...

http://www.washingtonspectator.com/articles/20080415fyi.cfm

that group is sure incestuous...

...Growing UBS/Phil Gramm/John McCain story journalmarked at this point by GD.

Bonds attract interest while stocks fall.

12:12
Dow 12,502.11 Down 46.24 (0.37%)
Nasdaq 2,466.48 Down 14.76 (0.59%)
S&P 500 1,378.85 Down 6.50 (0.47%)
10-Yr Bond 3.994% Up 0.073
NYSE Volume 1,524,558,875
Nasdaq Volume 788,279,750

Highlights

Current:



30-day and 90-day vs.greenback:



30-day vs. Euro, Yen, UK Pound and Swiss Franc




Currency Comparison: http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Detailed analysis: http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD

Up-to-the-minute graph: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CD.Y%24%24&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=1

Historical values http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2008-04-16 Wednesday, April 16 0.997904 USD
2008-04-17 Thursday, April 17 0.989413 USD
2008-04-18 Friday, April 18 0.99167 USD
2008-04-21 Monday, April 21 0.993443 USD
2008-04-22 Tuesday, April 22 0.996711 USD
2008-04-23 Wednesday, April 23 0.980969 USD
2008-04-24 Thursday, April 24 0.987069 USD
2008-04-25 Friday, April 25 0.983961 USD
2008-04-28 Monday, April 28 0.984446 USD
2008-04-29 Tuesday, April 29 0.987362 USD
2008-04-30 Wednesday, April 30 0.990884 USD
2008-05-01 Thursday, May 1 0.981643 USD
2008-05-02 Friday, May 2 0.982125 USD
2008-05-05 Monday, May 5 0.987654 USD
2008-05-06 Tuesday, May 6 0.996413 USD
2008-05-07 Wednesday, May 7 0.998004 USD
2008-05-08 Thursday, May 8 0.985319 USD
2008-05-09 Friday, May 9 0.993838 USD
2008-05-12 Monday, May 12 0.996314 USD
2008-05-13 Tuesday, May 13 1.0004 USD
2008-05-14 Wednesday, May 14 0.998203 USD
2008-05-15 Thursday, May 15 1.0004 USD
2008-05-16 Friday, May 16 1.00341 USD
2008-05-19 Monday, May 19 1.00867 USD
2008-05-20 Tuesday, May 20 1.00725 USD
2008-05-21 Wednesday, May 21 1.01626 USD
2008-05-22 Thursday, May 22 1.0141 USD
2008-05-23 Friday, May 23 1.01184 USD
2008-05-26 Monday, May 26 1.01184 USD
2008-05-27 Tuesday, May 27 1.00685 USD

Current values

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

Market            Open   High    Low   Last  Change    Pct 
CD.Y$$ Cash     1.0056 1.0109 1.0055 1.0109 +0.0050 +0.50% 
CD.M08 Jun 2008 1.0046 1.0080 1.0046 1.0080 +0.0027 +0.27% 
CD.U08 Sep 2008 1.0055 1.0055 1.0042 1.0045 -0.0062 -0.62% 
CD.Z08 Dec 2008 0.9780 0.9780 0.9780 1.0041 -0.0062 -0.62% 
CD.H09 Mar 2009 0.9757 0.9757        1.0040 -0.0062 -0.62% 
CD.M09 Jun 2009 0.9995 0.9995        1.0039 -0.0062 -0.62% 
CD.U09 Sep 2009 0.9780 0.9780 0.9780 1.0038 -0.0062 -0.62%  

Other combinations: (http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies)

Market          Open    High    Low     Last    Change   Pct 
AUSTRALIAN $/CANADIAN $ (CME:ACD)
ACD.M08 Jun 2008 0.9507 0.9507 0.9507 0.9507 +0.0030 +0.32% 
EURO/BRITISH POUND (NYBOT:GB)
.M08.E Jun 2008 (E) 0.79310 0.79310 0.79310 0.79310 -0.00215 -0.27%    
EURO/JAPANESE YEN (NYBOT:EJ)
EJ.M08.E Jun 2008 (E) 163.26 163.26 163.26 163.26 -0.10 -0.06%     
EURO/US$ (SMALL) (NYBOT:EO)
EO.M08.E Jun 2008 (E) 1.5665 1.5735 1.5600 1.5612 -0.0071 -0.45%    

Blather (from http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

The June Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of this month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 99.86 would confirm that a short- term top has been posted. If June extends this month's rally, March's high crossing at 102.38 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 101.80. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 102.38. First support is the overnight low crossing at 100.42. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 99.86.


Analysis

I'm swamped at work. This is just one of those :wtf: ones for primarly my own edification.

Dow 12,594.03 Up 45.68 (0.36%)
Nasdaq 2,486.70 Up 5.46 (0.22%)
S&P 500 1,390.84 Up 5.49 (0.40%)
10-Yr Bond 4.009% Up 0.088
NYSE Volume 3,927,249,500
Nasdaq Volume 1,844,956,250

16:15 ET
Stocks Close Higher on Late Surge
Dow +45.68 at 12594.03, Nasdaq +5.46 at 2486.70, S&P +5.49 at 1390.84

Positive financial results from select retailers and lower oil prices prompted buyers to enter the market in the early going. However, oil bounced back and sent the stock market into the red for the majority of the session, but a late surge in buying helped the S&P 500 close at its session high.

Chico's FAS (CHS 8.14, +0.97) and American Eagle Outfitters (AEO 18.61, +1.39) announced this morning earnings results that surpassed analysts’ estimates for the most recent quarter. Polo Ralph Lauren (RL 69.00, +7.25) also reported pleasing quarterly results, which helped the apparel and accessories industry advance more than 4.0% on the session.

Oil slipped below $126 per barrel in electronic trading earlier this morning, but ended its trading session on the Nymex $2.03 higher at $130.88 per barrel. In turn, the advance helped offset yesterday's declines. Oil has not closed lower for two consecutive sessions since early May.

The Dow Jones Transportation Average was unfazed by oil’s rebound. The index advanced nearly 1.0% Wednesday, helped by component United Parcel Service (UPS 70.54, +2.14). Reports indicated the global delivery and shipment company may see its sales climb if it can complete a deal to provide services for competitor DHL Express. Shares of UPS were also upgraded to Buy from Hold at Merrill Lynch.

Of the major economic sectors, materials (+2.8%) made the largest advance of the session. The sector was helped by fertilizer and agricultural chemical company Monsanto (MON 125.19, +6.12).

Despite the session’s choppy trading, market participants shunned U.S. Treasuries. The benchmark 10-year note fell 27 ticks. In turn, the 10-year note saw its yield rise above 4.0% for the first time this year.

Separately, the Commerce Department reported that durable goods orders fell 0.5% during April, which is a less substantial downturn than economists forecast. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders increased 2.5%. Economists were expecting a 0.5% downturn following the previous month’s 1.7% increase. Importantly, nondefense capital goods orders, excluding transportation, increased 4.2%. This is an important figure since it is viewed as a proxy for business investment. The report is not reflective of an economy in recession.

Incredulous puke creation heaves forward by a staggering 110%.

:puke: