Barack’s Bounce: Latest Newsweek poll shows Obama with 15-point lead

Source: Newsweek

By Michael Hirsh | Newsweek Web Exclusive
Jun 20, 2008

Barack finally has his bounce. For weeks many political experts and pollsters have been wondering why the race between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain had stayed so tight, even after the Illinois senator wrested the nomination from Hillary Clinton. With numbers consistently showing rock-bottom approval ratings for President Bush and a large majority of Americans unhappy with the country's direction, the opposing-party candidate should, in the normal course, have attracted more disaffected voters. Now it looks as if Obama is doing just that. A new NEWSWEEK Poll shows that he has a substantial double-digit lead, 51 percent to 36 percent, over McCain among registered voters nationwide.

In the previous NEWSWEEK Poll, completed in late May when Clinton was still fighting him hard for the Democratic nomination, Obama managed no better than a 46 percent tie with McCain. But as pollster Larry Hugick points out, that may have had a lot to do with all the mutual mudslinging going on between the two Democrats. By contrast, in recent weeks Clinton has not only endorsed Obama but has made plans to campaign with him. "They were in a pitched battle, and that's going to impact things. Now that we've gotten away from that period, this is the kind of bounce they've been talking about," said Hugick.

The latest numbers on voter dissatisfaction suggest that Obama may enjoy more than one bounce. The new poll finds that only 14 percent of Americans say they are satisfied with the direction of the country. That matches the previous low point on this measure recorded in June 1992, when a brief recession contributed to Bill Clinton's victory over Bush's father, incumbent George H.W. Bush. Overall, voters see Obama as the preferred agent of "change" by a margin of 51 percent to 27 percent. Younger voters, in particular, are more likely to see Obama that way: those 18 to 39 favor the Illinois senator by 66 percent to 27 percent. The two candidates are statistically tied among older voters.

Obama's current lead also reflects the large party-identification advantage the Democrats now enjoy—55 percent of all voters call themselves Democrats or say they lean toward the party while just 36 percent call themselves Republicans or lean that way. Even as McCain seeks to gain voters by distancing himself from the unpopular Bush and emphasizing his maverick image, he is suffering from the GOP's poor reputation among many voters. Still, history provides hope for the GOP. Hugick points out that in May 1988 when the primaries ended, Democrat Michael Dukakis enjoyed a 54 percent to 38 percent lead over George H.W. Bush. But Bush wound up winning handily. "Those results should give people pause," Hugick says, saying that a substantial number of voters, about 5 percent, have also moved into the undecided column. A significant improvement in the economy, or continued advances in Iraq—an issue McCain has identified with strongly as the senator who championed the "surge" first—could alter the Republican's fortunes.

For now, however, Obama is running much stronger at this point in the race than his two most recent Democratic predecessors, Sen. John Kerry and Vice President Al Gore....

Read more: http://www.newsweek.com/id/142465/page/1

The Repubs know that McSame is a sacrifice candidate...he didn't get it in 2000. Now he's 72 so they'll use him for this election, he'll lose, and there will be no way he can run at 76 years old in 4 years.

The real challenge will be 2012. Because you know the second Bush leaves office, any death or ANYthing that happens in Iraq becomes Obama's fault. No doubt about it, the Repugs will have no problem dumping Iraq all on him from January 20, 2009 onward (they don't care about the hypocrisy).

they will blame Obama if he gets in, for EVERYTHING B*sh did... but like you said, no time to get complacent even though Obama should win with 300+ EV when all is said and done - I mean, goodness - over 85% of people think the country is going in the WRONG direction!



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Now of course, the situation is far different and we have a pResident with a 19% approval rating and the Repug candidate has done nothing for the last 8 years but kiss his ass. Still though.

I can't wait for President Obama! :) And of course, I really can't wait to have Michelle as First Lady. What a change the next four years will be!

the neo-cons were willing to throw this election. They know, as we do, that American memories are short and fickle. By 2010 everything going wrong will be the fault of whoever is in office, no matter what kind of crap he inherited. The economy, Iraq, housing crisis, et al will all be dumped on the President at the time, whether it was his policies or not.

That's why I wonder sometimes if the smarter members of the repug party didn't run a stronger candidate on purpose. The guy they've got does not appeal to half his own base...you think they could have done better than that. But I think they may have wanted to run a bad candidate so that the dems would win and get saddled with the Bush mess...then, in 2012, they can swoop in like knights in shining armor to rescue us from the perceived dem mismanagement. All of a sudden we are then saddled with 8 more years of hell.

The electorate tends to be stupid so this kind of thing can work. Here is hoping the dems will show a lot of spine in 2009 (if they control both houses and the presidency) and start reversing everything they can. The first couple of years will be painful no matter what, but hopefully by year 3 real measurable progress will have been made. Also hopefully, the electorate will be able to see that progress before the 2010 congressional elections. In 1994 Clinton had done much to roll back the Reagan Bush lunacy...and it was painful...but necessary. However, that also gave Gingrich a chance in 94 to grab a hold of congress. The dems have to work extremely hard in 09 and 10 to show why the reversal of every Bush policy is right, and they have to pound the drum whenever something works...we need to control the whole smash up to 2012. Hopefully by then this country will finally be visibly on the right track and the neo cons will be permanently out of business.

I sure like this one.

"Most other national polls have shown Obama with a 4 to 5 point lead over McCain so far. Random statistical error can explain some of the difference in poll results. The NEWSWEEK survey of 1,010 adults nationwide on June 18 and 19, 2008, has a margin of error of 4 points. But the latest evidence of his gaining ground goes well beyond that margin."

young voters than old ones. If O's base was seniors I would worry more about another hijacking. But it will be tough and dangerous for Rove to keep young people from voting.

predecessors, Sen. John Kerry and Vice President Al Gore"

I think it's that likeability factor.

There is something about his smile, that makes me want to smile. If that happens to me, a dispassionate pragmatist. I can only imagine the effect it has on others.

Obama knows this better than anyone. Basketball games are interesting, because crazy shit can happen in five minutes, altering the course of a game completely. Even a minute is a LOT of time. Well, Obama has more than half the game left.

A fifteen point lead before halftime means nothing. Obama has got to play some tough defense, but not leave any offensive ground. It's his to lose. But I have confidence in him. He knows this. He's hat back and hit back hard.

it ain't no shock to me.

I've never seen a McCain bumper sticker. Never seen someone put forward a case for McCain being President. Haven't even had anyone admit to me in person that they considered McCain to be the 'lesser of two evils'.

Even most Republicans seem to hate his guts. Who exactly is it that supports McCain? How did he even win his own party's nomination, with this complete lack of apparent support? Were the GOP primaries rigged in an attempt to keep the establishment in power?

Every other candidate the Republicans put up was even more loathesome than Straight Talkin' Johnny Maverick if you can imagine such a thing. Mittens, Rudolini, Schmuckabee, and Older Than Dirt Fred all took their turns as the darling of the GOP, and every one of them flopped. McCain stayed in and by virtue of . . . well, I don't know what, exactly, he won the nomination to become the Bobdole of 2008.

AS the weeks go by and the poll numbers lengthen against McCain, it will be the job of the major media to keep people's interest up for the general election, because those big fat paychecks they pocket don't write themselves.

... shows what a horrible bunch of candidates the Puglets had to choose from.

Newsweek's poll is out of sync with all the other polls. That alone should make you weary. They asked more democrats then republicans. Kinda tilts the results. I believe most of the other polls that have Obama up by about 6%. Its still way too early to get a handle on the voters.