STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday June 26

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday June 26, 2008

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 209
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2713 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2438 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2729
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES &
MARKETS INDICATORS>
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON June 25, 2008

Dow... 11,811.83 +4.40 (+0.04%)
Nasdaq... 2,401.26 +32.98 (+1.39%)
S&P 500... 1,321.97 +7.68 (+0.58%)
Gold future... 882.30 -9.30 (-1.04%)
30-Year Bond 4.66% -0.00 (-0.02%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.12% +0.01 (+0.24%)






GOLD,EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact actionpost@legitgov.org

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

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Read more: du

BY CHRIS PUPLAVA

It sure looks that way as the stimulus checks have begun to filter into the economy with minimal affect. The month over month retail sales growth has picked up modestly recently, however the year over year growth rate continues its downward trend and is likely to continue south as the affect of the stimulus checks fade.

Though the stimulus checks have resulted in a modest bounce in the monthly growth rate in retail sales, it has done absolutely nothing to stop the bleeding in consumer confidence. No matter how you try to spin it, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence numbers released yesterday were downright depressing. The present situation component fell to its lowest levels since the last recession while the expectations index fell to its lowest levels in more than 30 years. Despite readings like these, financial pundits are still holding on to the “goldilocks” economy denying any appearance of a recession.

.....

Americans over the last several decades have leveraged up to maintain the their lifestyles. However, with greater leverage comes greater financial stress as investment banks of late have come to find out. Americans are buckling under the weight of a weakening economy when their debt levels have sky rocketed as has their financial obligations rate. Since 1980, total household debt outstanding has grown over 750%, the personal savings rate has fallen from 10.7% to 0.6%, and the household financial obligations rate has risen from 13.8% to 17.8%.

.....

Americans have never been more unprepared for economic weakness and financial hardships than they are today, making them evermore dependent on big brother for handouts and bailouts, which is exactly the case today. Ignoring the affects of the 2005 hurricanes, more American households are collecting food stamps from the government to survive, and social benefit payments on the state and federal government levels continue to soar as we become less self sufficient and more reliant for governmental assistance.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

I hope this fucker loses his non-job and has to live on food stamps for a few months. I detest Big Media.

"the affect effects of the stimulus checks fade."

:grr:

Must I read everything with a red pen in hand?

He was one of those "free thinkers" who felt that grades were an artificial feedback mechanism that don't account for the actual learning process. And in some ways I agree with him..... (beside the point)

So for a while he gave everybody that took his class an "A". He taught a freshman intro to art course (elective, non-major), so you can imagine that he was quite popular.

Finally he was called upstairs and directly onto the carpet. He was given orders to use the standard grade scale.

So at the end of every semester, he would tape up everybody's name helter-skelter, put on a blindfold, pick up his paint ball gun loaded with 3 colors signifying "A" "B" and "C" and shoot randomly at the wall. Ta-Da!

Worst you could make was a "C" and there was really no work or requirements for the class.

A Professor who only gave A's.

The theory being, if a 'C' were awarded then it was a failure of the Teacher in teaching the course material.
Only half of it had sunk in to any meaningful degree. This Professor stood by the prediction that if any of these
students ended up teaching the subject in the future armed with only half of the information, and if they awarded
'C's to their students the knowledge of the subject would fall by another half and so on. Until, nothing was left.

This Professor demanded that to get our 'A' we had to know more about the subject at the end of the course than the Professor did.

Most difficult course I ever took. But, I remember every word of it.

Oh, yeah... That Professor also awarded, "Incompletes"... With a hearty, "See you next Semester!".

rather than just showing how much you don't know. (in contrast to their puffed up egotism)

One of the "best" (to me anyway) pieces of feedback I ever got on the anonymous reviews was a side notation: "Harsh, but immanently fair."

I think many people underestimate the abilities of "the young". I have always tried to find ways to challenge them (which keeps me interested in the process) and in most cases they are more than eager to rise to the occasion.

Yeah..... nobody ever took me for an easy "A".......

Where the Professor flips the plane upside down and yells out to the Student, "Whatcha gonna do now?"

:rofl:

Although, it could also be immanently....

I was in my happy place.

There are Couches there.... Ahhh.

08:30 Chain Deflator-Final Q1
Briefing.com 2.6%
Consensus 2.6%
Prior 2.6%

08:30 GDP-Final Q1
Briefing.com 1.0%
Consensus 1.0%
Prior 0.9%

08:30 Initial Claims 06/21
Briefing.com 370K
Consensus 375K
Prior 381K

10:00 Existing Home Sales May
Briefing.com 5.05M
Consensus 4.95M
Prior 4.89M

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

01. U.S. Q1 corporate profits down rev 0.3% vs up 0.3% prev est
8:30 AM ET, Jun 26, 2008

02. U.S. Q1 core PCE up 2.3% vs 2.1% prev est.
8:30 AM ET, Jun 26, 2008

03. U.S. Q1 GDP just below 1.1% forecast
8:30 AM ET, Jun 26, 2008

04. U.S. Q1 GDP up 1.0% vs 0.9% prev est.
8:30 AM ET, Jun 26, 2008

05. U.S 4-wk. avg. continuing jobless claims rise to 3.10 mln
8:30 AM ET, Jun 26, 2008

06. U.S. continuing jobless claims rise 82,000 to 3.14 mln
8:30 AM ET, Jun 26, 2008

07. U.S. 4-wk. avg. initial jobless claims up 2,250 to 378,250
8:30 AM ET, Jun 26, 2008

08. U.S. weekly initial jobless claims unchanged at 384,000
8:30 AM ET, Jun 26, 2008

Each one signifies a person who is under extreme stress.

The number crunchers are so persistent in their attempts to "revise away" any recessionary factors.

not really cumulative - unless you are looking at the 4-week number - 384,000 this week, 384,000 last week - 376,000 the week before - it's over a million claims in 3 weeks! This is not "churn" - these are lost jobs.

But they have more ways of excluding people from the stats now, such as part-time workers. And most people worked full time back then.

to quote the Condi-liar.

01. U.S. May existing-home sales rise as expected
10:00 AM ET, Jun 26, 2008

02. U.S. existing-home sales down 15.9% in past year
10:00 AM ET, Jun 26, 2008

03. U.S. May existing-home median price down 6.3% in past year
10:00 AM ET, Jun 26, 2008

04. U.S. May existing-home inventory falls to 10.8 month supply
10:00 AM ET, Jun 26, 2008

05. U.S. May existing-home sales rise 2% to 4.99 million pace
10:00 AM ET, Jun 26, 2008

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/06/04/business/LA-FIN-Mexico-Auto-Advantage.php

DON'T KNOW IF YOU'VE SEEN THIS YET...

MEXICO CITY: Mexican auto unions are taking a cue from U.S. labor leaders by offering two-tier hiring schemes and salary cuts that bring already low wages down to near-Chinese levels.

As more automakers turn to Mexico, a big argument for the North American Free Trade Agreement in 1993 — that Mexico's low wage rates would slowly rise to close the gap with U.S. wages — seems to have been thrown in reverse.

"The pressure has not been to raise the Mexican wages up, it's been to push the U.S. wages down," said Ben Davis, the director of the AFL-CIO Solidarity office in Mexico City.

And now Mexican wages are being pushed down even more...Wage concessions were apparently key to persuading Ford Motor Co. to direct many of the 4,500 new jobs involved in building Fiestas to the Ford plant in Cuautitlan, on the outskirts of Mexico City. Union leaders at the plant told The Associated Press they had agreed to cut wages for new hires to about half of the current wage of US$4.50 per hour.

"We agreed to it," said Ford union leader Juan Jose Sosa Arreola. "We need to be more competitive. That's the truth. That's a reality."

The United Auto Workers union had hoped to preserve American jobs by offering a two-tier wage system last fall, cutting starting wages for new U.S. workers by half to about US$14.20 an hour. But it hasn't worked — the jobs are flowing to Mexico, where starting wages at some plants also have been two-tiered, to as little as US$1.50 per hour with a lot less of the related pension and health care costs of U.S. workers.

With labor costs like these, Mexico is staying competitive with China, where an average worker at a foreign-owned factory or joint venture can make US$2 to US$6 per hour. While Mexican benefit costs run higher, Mexico may have already won the low-wage race.

Mexico also now has the advantage of a massive auto production platform based on experience with export plants and proximity to major markets that can't yet be beat in China, whose factories still produce mainly for its own domestic market.

Ford spokeswoman Alejandra Acevedo said she did not know what starting wages for new hires at Cuautitlan would be, but she acknowledged that to win the jobs, the plant had to compete against other Ford facilities worldwide.

"It makes business sense that labor costs are much lower here, and also it's much cheaper here to grow the local supplier network," said Acevedo, noting Mexico's free trade deals help slash the cost of importing parts and exporting cars, Acevedo said.

Other U.S. automakers also are squeezing wages. General Motors said Tuesday it will stop using relatively high-wage workers to assemble slow-selling pickups at its plant in central city of Toluca. A labor leader there said the union had gotten the message, and would offer to work for less to keep the plant alive.

"I think we are going to have to sacrifice something in order to continue to be competitive," said Edgar Arroyo, a union leader at the Toluca General Motors plant, where he estimated some workers earn about US$6 per hour, an extremely high rate by Mexican auto industry standards.

Nothing in NAFTA stops this drive to the wage floor. The treaty only requires countries to enforce their own minimum wage laws, which in Mexico means about US$5 per day.

Foreign investment in Mexico's auto industry is soaring, averaging about US$2 billion per year since the 1990s. Ford's US$3 billion investment in the Fiesta project may accelerate that trend.

Auto exports grew by almost 68 percent between 2004 and 2007 to 1.6 million units. Most went to the U.S., but also to European and other Latin American markets.

But since NAFTA's approval in 1993, the gap in overall manufacturing wages between Mexico and the United States has widened slightly, according to government figures.

At Volkswagen's plant in the central Mexican city of Puebla, union spokesman Arturo Monter blames low wages on Mexico's antiquated system of labor laws that favor employers and discourage strikes and union organizing.

Unlike in the United States, where a single national union, the UAW,organizes most auto plants, in Mexico unions are deeply split and may only represent workers at one manufacturer, or even at a single plant.

Union leadership at Monter's plant agreed to cut starting wages to US$1.50 an hour from US$1.95 a few years ago. It can now take as long as seven years to work up to earning what was once the entry-level wage, Monter said.

Still, those lower labor costs helped win a contract for an as-yet unnamed Volkswagen model, known at the plant only as "Project Zero," that the automaker had been considering building in the United States, Monter said.

A VW spokesman declined to comment on production plans, saying only that nothing had yet been confirmed.

Mexico's abundant, youthful work force is still drawn to auto plants despite the low wages, union leaders say, because the firms offer stable employment, a rarity in Mexico's working world.

"Despite the fact that we're negotiating what you could call a cheaper contract, I guarantee you that if we advertise for 2,000 workers, 10,000 people are going to show up," said Sosa Arreola, whose plant sits on the outskirts of Mexico City.

If you owned a slave, you'd have to feed them, clothe them, house them, and keep them healthy.

Now, you pay them shit, work them to death, send them home hungry to their cardboard shack. And if they die overnight, you just hire another one. Wash, rinse, repeat.

We need a worldwide general strike.

Or, as I posted back in April,
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/Dr.Phool/1

of one of the nieces, who I was no doubt trying to impress with just how unpredictably radical my politics could be: "I was thinking we should set up the 'Bring Back Slavery Party'." When he looked at me askance, but with a raised eyebrow, I continued, "On the grounds that maybe workers would be better looked-after if they were actually, you know, property."

To his credit, he did get the point. And went on to marry the niece, who's turned out to be a real bitch (con perdón).

A nicely restrained (ie. not too bloody) but real revolution in the USA would truly be a wondrous thing to behold.

A "restrained" revolution would be nigh upon a miracle.

It's the Give-em-hell-lone-hero-cowboy-go-for-broke mentality.

We might need a few thousand years of Buddhist Boot Camp to understand the value and use of Yin.

Now that you mention it we could use a refresher on all of the 'tions'.

If only they'd pay us to do it... :o

aren't seeing it this way.

But I think the vast majority of people are still far too comfortable to rise up. When the vast majority discover all the credit cards are maxed out, the utilities are getting cut off, the house is in foreclosure, and the cupboard is bare, THEN you'll see a revolt. Not until then.


The thing is, Americans are by and large fairly optimistic. Even when things are really abysmally horribly desperately BAD, Americans expect it turn around soon. Call it the Micawber syndrome if you will. We just can't wrap our little heads around the idea that, gee, our world really IS coming to an end.


When we realize this, we will do something. Maybe.

Oil prices moved higher Thursday as buyers moved back into the market a day after a report showed U.S. stockpiles of oil and fuel were larger than expected.

Light, sweet crude for August delivery was up 50 cents to $135.05 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midday in Europe.

In London, Brent crude futures rose $1.08 to $135.41 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

.....

Wednesday's inventory report was taken as evidence that soaring gasoline prices have crimped demand in the U.S., the world's biggest energy consumer. Crude oil stocks rose slightly last week, the U.S. Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said. Analysts surveyed by research firm Platts had expected a 1.7 million barrel decline.

Gasoline supplies fell less than expected. And inventories of distillates, which include diesel fuel and heating oil, rose much more than expected.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Supreme Court on Wednesday threw out the record $2.5 billion in punitive damages that Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM.N) had been ordered to pay for the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill off Alaska, the nation's worst tanker spill.

By a 5-3 vote, the high court ruled that the punitive damages award should be slashed to a maximum amount equal to the total relevant compensatory damages of $507.5 million.

The justices overturned a ruling by a U.S. Court of Appeals that had awarded the record punitive damages to about 32,000 commercial fishermen, Alaska natives, property owners and others harmed by the spill.

In the majority opinion, Justice David Souter concluded the $2.5 billion in punitive damages was excessive under federal maritime law, and should be cut to the amount of actual harm.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080625/bs_nm/exxon_valdez_court_dc_8

LOS ANGELES (AFP) - Trains are bustling, scooter sales are booming and manual lawn-mowers are back in vogue. But charities are grimly facing up to a drop in volunteer workers while some cash-strapped families are cutting expenditure on fresh meat and vegetables.

.....

In a myriad of ways, the effects of soaring gasoline prices are being felt directly and indirectly across America, forcing many into lifestyle changes as they rethink monthly budgets.

John Gargotta, executive director of Senior Volunteer Services, says spiralling pump prices are already biting in the non-profit sector, with the number of volunteers plummeting by 20 percent in two years.

.....

By the end of the summer, fuel costs are expected to account for 4.2 percent of average US disposable income, according to Brian Bethum, chief US financial economist for Global Insight. That's up from 3.7 percent in the first half of the year and fast approaching the record 4.5 percent set at the peak of the OPEC oil crisis in early 1981.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080626/ts_alt_afp/commoditiesenergyoilpricelifestyle_080626075939

04. OPEC president says oil could hit $150-$170 this summer: AFP
7:50 AM ET, Jun 26, 2008

when no legislation is moved and attention is diverted elsewhere, to something beyond oil futures speculation.

isn't that when all the channels are focusing on shark attacks?

and pig attacks, summer box office proceeds, whatever Brad and Angelina are doing at this very moment (he goes to the fridge, retrieves a jug of milk, removes cap, lifts jug to lips, gulps, replaces cap, replaces jug, closes fridge door, but in a so very hot, Hollywood leading man way...)

Summer fashions, why the sun is bad for you, who has gotten fat in Hollywood, who is anorexic, when the kids need to start getting ready to go back to school, how schools suck, tax free days, "does your daughter dress like a 'ho?" blah, blah, blah, blah blah.......

Hurricane season, ya know.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/06/25/confusions-about-speculation/

OK, Tyler Cowen weighs in — but I think that he partly misunderstands my point.

I’m not asking (at least in the latest entry) whether there’s a bubble; I’m asking whether expectations of a higher future price and/or investment in the futures market by institutional investors are pushing up the current price. If the answer is yes, then we can ask whether there’s a bubble — that is, whether the expected future price is unreasonable.

It’s quite possible to have speculation that isn’t a bubble. As I pointed out, there is in effect rational speculation every winter in the gasoline market, as investors rationally expect that gas prices will rise in the summer driving season, and stockpile gas to meet future demand.

But is speculation, rational or not, driving the price of crude?

.....

Maybe the oil inventories are being held in the ground; but do we have any evidence that oil producing countries are withholding output? (And for those who blame speculators, are Kuwait and Saudi on the other side of those futures contracts?) Maybe there’s a shifting liquidity premium that mucks up the relationship between spot and future. But this really is starting to sound like epicycles — an attempt to rescue the speculation hypothesis, which originally was supposed to be based on compelling evidence, by saying that there’s actually no evidence that could refute it.

Since Nixon closed the gold window.

03. August crude up $1.10 to $135.61 a barrel on Globex
8:34 AM ET, Jun 26, 2008

1. August crude up $3.49 to $138.04 a barrel on Globex
9:05 AM ET, Jun 26, 2008

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article19941.htm


....Mark my words: you have perhaps a year, maybe two, before the riots start. High gas prices, high food prices, incompetent disaster relief, home foreclosures, lack of jobs, and a loss of faith in the system will combine to create chaos. If your aides were to look up my previous correspondance with you they will find that I accurately predicted the lack of WMD, the quagmire that is Iraq, and a number of other things. I'm sure you believe that if we can just get throught the election, everything will be better with a Democratic President. Wrong: whoever is president will soon discover that we are broke, the business class has no interest in rectifying anything, and we are bereft of influence. More people will lose their homes while you and your colleagues pump billions into corporations "that are too big to fail". Those corporations will take that tax money and invest it outside the United States. The kicker is going to be TV, in February '09. When you have millions of people with no home, no work, no money, hugely expensive gas and food, and nothing much to do besides watch TV, and you take THAT away from them what exactly do you think they will do? Vouchers for new TVs or adapters don't help if you can't afford to feed your children. The subsequent riots will spin completely out of control with most of the National Guard deployed overseas....

DON'T KNOW IF YOU SAW THIS ONE, EITHER (CATCHING UP ON MY EMAIL)



http://www.newspress.com/Top/Article/article.jsp?Section=BUSINESS&ID=565299957931049946


LA PAZ, Bolivia (AP) - President Evo Morales warned foreign companies Sunday to step up investment in Bolivia's natural gas industry or risk losing access to its lucrative deposits.



Morales said his government is readying an ''ultimatum'' to Brazil's Petrobras, Spain's Repsol YPF, Britain's BP and others working in Bolivia.

''I've asked my ministers to prepare a decree giving the companies an ultimatum to invest,'' the president said in the central Bolivian town of Punata. ''If they don't invest in the areas where exploration has shown there to be plenty of petroleum and natural gas ... in a determined period of time, we're going to take those areas back for (state energy company) YPFB.''

Morales said YPFB would make any needed investment even if it has to do so on credit, but he did not give further details on the decree.

Morales' push for more state control has spooked foreign energy investment in Bolivia, home to the second largest natural gas deposits in South America.

An estimated US$876 million (euro565 million) in investment that the government anticipates for 2008 is largely targeted to pumping existing fields, rather than developing new ones that Bolivia needs to feed growing demand in its energy-hungry neighbors Brazil and Argentina.

Earlier this month YPFB took majority control of Bolivian subsidiaries of BP and Repsol, as well as the pipeline company Transredes, a subsidiary of the Houston-based Ashmore Energy International. Morales also announced plans for YPFB to purchase the German- and Peruvian-owned distribution company CLBH.

WASHINGTON - The Federal Reserve's aggressive period of cutting interest rates to keep the country from falling into a recession is over. That point is in general agreement. The trouble starts when you try to figure out what period the Fed has now entered.

.....

In their statement, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues let it be known that they are now less worried about the economy slipping into a recession and more worried about inflation.

.....

That wording, however, was somewhat bland, even by the guarded standards of Fed-speak, especially given the pronouncements of Bernanke and other Fed policymakers, who openly worried in recent speeches about the inflation pressures that could be spawned by a weak dollar and surging energy prices.

It was those comments that caused financial markets to start pricing in rate hikes, possibly beginning as early as the Fed's August meeting. Now after Wednesday's announcement, the expectations of imminent rate hikes have subsided considerably.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080626/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/fed_interest_rates

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- If the outlook for the banking industry worsens in the months ahead, the Federal Reserve may have something to do with it.

Members of the Fed's policy-setting committee, which left interest rates untouched Wednesday, left the door open to future rate hikes to curb inflation pressure.

Such a move may not happen until later this year or early 2009. But even a moderate increase in short-term interest rates by the Fed in the future could pose yet another headache for the struggling banking industry.

.....

Increased competition for deposits

Rising interest rates would also lead to even more intense competition for deposits, notes Michael Nix, a principal at Greenwood Capital Associates in Greenwood, S.C., which oversees about $750 million in assets.

Many online banks and brokerages have been offering their own interest bearing money market accounts, often at a higher rate than traditional banks, in recent years.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/26/news/companies/banks_margins/index.htm?postversion=2008062607

Now maybe we can get some shakeout.

When Pilate saw that he could prevail nothing, but that rather a tumult was made, he took water, and washed his hands before the multitude, saying, I am innocent of the blood of this just person: see you to it.

Chopper Ben would wish to have a legacy so kindly bestowed by history.

NEW YORK - U.S. stocks headed for a lower open Thursday ahead of a final reading on first-quarter gross domestic product, sales of existing homes and weekly unemployment claims.

Beyond the flurry of economic data set to arrive, investors digested comments from technology bellwether Oracle Corp., which said after the closing bell Wednesday that the traditionally slow summer months could prove particularly difficult amid a slowing economy. The remarks from the maker of business software dented a notion that technology companies could show resistance to a weakening economy.

Wall Street's cautious turn comes a day after the Federal Reserve interrupted a series of interest rate cuts by leaving rates unchanged and warning of an increased threat of inflation. Stocks, which posted uneven gains Wednesday after the Fed's decision, also benefited from a decrease in crude oil prices.

.....

Investors will likely be focusing on the GDP figures for a broad look at well-being of the economy. The Commerce Department's reading, which measures the value of all goods and services produced within the U.S., is expected to show that GDP grew at a 1 percent annual pace, an increase from the 0.9 percent estimate the department released on May 30 but still a painfully small rise.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/wall_street

S&P 500 -15.70 1306.90 6/26 8:36am
Fair Value 1323.48 6/25 9:03pm
Difference* -16.58

NASDAQ -27.75 1904.50 6/26 8:37am
Fair Value 1943.98 6/25 9:03pm
Difference* -39.48

Dow Jones -116.00 11691.00 6/26 8:36am

NEW YORK (Reuters) - General Electric Co's (GE.N) auction of its $30 billion credit-card business is attracting only tepid interest, according to an article on the Wall Street Journal's website.

Prospective buyers are afraid that customers of stores like Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT.N), J.C. Penney Co (JCP.N) and Lowe's (LOW.N) are having trouble paying their bills, said the report.

JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N), which was seen as a likely acquirer of the business, recently dropped out of the bidding, the article said, citing people familiar with the situation.

Other companies with large credit-card portfolios, such as Citigroup Inc (C.N), Bank of America Corp (BAC.N) and Capital One Financial Corp (COF.N), also aren't expected to submit bids, as a result of rising delinquencies and charge-offs in their own card portfolios, said the report.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080626/bs_nm/generalelectric_creditcards_dc_1

(Reuters) - Citigroup Inc (C.N) may suffer $8.9 billion of second-quarter write-downs, forcing it perhaps to cut its dividend again, while Merrill Lynch & Co (MER.N) may incur $4.2 billion of write-downs, Goldman Sachs & Co analyst William Tanona wrote on Thursday.

The analyst also added Citigroup to Goldman's "Americas conviction sell" list. He said the largest U.S. bank's 32 cents-per-share quarterly dividend is "not safe," and that the bank may have to issue common stock or sell assets to raise capital because regulators may forbid it from issuing more preferred or convertible securities.

"We see multiple headwinds for Citigroup including additional write-downs, higher consumer provisions as a result of rapidly deteriorating consumer credit trends, and the potential for additional capital raises, dividend cuts, or asset sales," the analyst said.

.....

Citigroup shares, meanwhile, fell 61 cents to $18.24 in pre-market trading. If they fall below $18.00, they would touch their lowest level since October 1998, the month Citicorp and Travelers Group merged to form Citigroup, Reuters data show.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080626/bs_nm/citigroup_research_goldman_dc

The TED spread is starting to rise again and is back above 1.0 for the first time since the beginning of May. Here is the TED Spread from Bloomberg. The spread is still far below the previous three waves, but well above the normal level (below 0.5).

And from the WSJ: European Bank-Lending Anxiety Returns


more...

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/06/credit-crisis-4th-wave.html

Credit Market Worries Rising?

(excerpt)

the Short View column in the Financial Times, keying off adverse trends in the credit default swaps market, sounded positively anxious:



So while none of this is definitive, the signs of instability are worsening. All it might take is a couple of mind-focusing bad developments in short succession for investors to start running for cover.

edit: http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/06/credit-market-worries-rising.html

German Import Prices Have Biggest Gain in 18 Years

June 26 (Bloomberg) -- German import prices rose the most in almost 18 years in May, adding to signs of increasing inflation pressure in Europe's largest economy.

Prices gained 2.4 percent from April, when they climbed 0.9 percent, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said today. That's the biggest gain since September 1990. Economists expected an increase of 1.5 percent, according to the median of 16 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey.

A surge in oil prices to a record $139.89 a barrel on June 16 has pushed up inflation and increased pressure on companies to pass on higher costs, even as a stronger euro makes imports more affordable. The European Central Bank has said it is ready to raise borrowing costs from a six-year high next month.

``Inflation pressures are much stronger than expected,'' said Thorsten Polleit, chief German economist at Barclays Capital in Frankfurt. ``It's mainly due to developments on commodity markets. Prices will continue to rise.''

From a year earlier, import prices increased 7.9 percent after rising 5.7 percent in April, the statistics office said today. That's the strongest annual increase since November 2000. Energy costs increased 10.1 percent in the month and imported crude oil was 13.3 percent more expensive, today's report showed.

The price of oil has increased 43 percent this year, draining the purchasing power of companies and consumers. The euro has gained 6.6 percent against the dollar over the same period.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aYMkTjf3kd78&refer=economy

The willingness of banks to LEND TO EACH OTHER is truly measured by the TED spread.

The TED spread is the difference between 3-month LIBOR and 3-month Treasuries.

The significance of this spread is that it represents the spread between the rate charged for lending to a bank and the rate charged for lending to the government.

It effectively measures the perceived credit risk of banks relative to the government (the credit risk premium).

That spread generally indicates how much FEAR is in the banking system (about the banking system ITSELF).

Even though the media doesn't focus much attention on this indicator (AS IT SHOULD), it should not be dismissed or taken lightly. It is very serious.


You can find the rate for 3-month LIBOR and 3-month Treasuries at this link:
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/index.html

Written by Bernard on 2007-12-01 08:33:06
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/229674

edit to add link for the TED Spread chart
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.TEDSP:IND

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 72.745 Change -0.163 (-0.22%)

Is the Dollar Rally Over?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Is_the_Dollar_Rally_over__1214429437481.html

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at 2 percent and upgraded their degree of hawkishness but unfortunately for dollar bulls, the Fed was not hawkish enough (Detailed Take on the FOMC). What currency traders came to realize was that even though the Fed could still raise interest rates in September, the ECB will beat them to them punch. Federal Reserve members are in no rush to show their cards because time is on their side. With 2 non-farm payrolls and multiple inflation reports before the next Fed meeting, the US central bank will get a much better sense of whether US consumers and businesses can handle a rate hike. In the meantime the dollar may continue to let off some steam, particularly against the Euro. Non-farm payrolls and the European Central Bank meeting are both scheduled for the same day next week, which could give us two reasons to sell the US dollar. However any further weakness should just be a bump in the road for the US dollar because the ECB has already forewarned the markets that the July rate hike may be one-off. Therefore the focus will shift back to the Federal Reserve, whose next move will be a rate hike. If inflation refuses to ease over the next few months, the Fed may be forced to tighten monetary policy more than once. In that case, they could be perceived as more hawkish than the ECB, which would help the dollar recover. This is of course assumes that economic conditions do not get progressively worse over the next 2 months and inflation does not suddenly drop. Durable goods orders and new home sales elicited nothing more than a yawn as both numbers came out very close to expectations. The final figures for first quarter GDP, jobless claims and existing home sales are due for release tomorrow. All three pieces of data are expected to be dollar bullish with GDP predicted to be revised higher and existing home sales expected to rebound.

...more...

Euro Consolidates Post FOMC; EURJPY- The Flavor of the Day?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio2/Euro_Consolidates_Post_FOMC__EURJPY__1214471718278.html

The EURUSD spent a relatively quiet night of trade consolidating its post FOMC gains around the 1.5650 figure but forward progress was hurt by a sharp drop in French consumer confidence suggesting that economic conditions across the ocean are not much better than they are in the US. French confidence reached a new low hitting –46 versus –41 expected as rising prices damped spending plans as consumers were less inclined to purchase big ticket items, While French consumers have a history of saying one thing while doing another, (note the surprisingly strong rebound in French consumer spending data just a few days back) the survey does suggest that the parabolic rise in energy prices may have significant negative repercussions on spending in the next several months.

While the EZ consumer, much like his US counterpart is clearly slowing down, it is unlikely that this dynamic will have any effect on ECB monetary policy next month. Tonight’s economic calendar also showed that EZ M3 expanded at faster than expected rate of 10.5% vs. 10.4% forecast no doubt fueling further worries about inflation amongst monetary authorities in Frankfurt while only strengthening their resolve to raise rates in July.

As we noted earlier, the market now shares a near universal belief that EZ rates will increase by 25bp to 4.25% next week. Meanwhile yesterday’s rather ambiguous statement from the Fed still leaves the idea of an increase in September Fed funds rate a matter of serious doubt. In short with the interest rate differential between the euro and the dollar expanding to 225bp the euro will continue to attract speculator flows especially if economic data from the US continues to surprise to the downside further jeopardizing the possibility of tightening by the Fed.

We believe the Fed missed a golden opportunity to support the dollar with a surprise rate hike yesterday leaving the greenback subject to the whims and vagaries of the oil market. If oil prices remain sticky above $130/bbl for much longer, dollar’s value is likely to continue to erode. If on the other hand, oil begins to finally break to the downside, Dr. Bernanke and company would have caught a lucky break as currency traders would assume that the ECB would limit its tightening policy to “one and done” putting no further selling pressure on the greenback.

...more...

28 minutes ago Brunswick to cut 1,000 jobs and may cut another 1,000 - MarketWatch

35 minutes ago Brunswick to cut dozen, or more, boat-building plants - MarketWatch

37 minutes ago Brunswick sees U.S. marine market shrinking - MarketWatch

39 minutes ago Brunswick to cut fixed costs by $300 million - MarketWatch

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/brunswick-cut-expenses-300-million/story.aspx?guid=%7B157F2278%2DAD17%2D4E15%2DA833%2D11049E466E94%7D&dist=TQP_Mod_mktwN

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Brunswick Corp. (BC) said Thursday that due to the current downturn in the U.S. marine market, it will cut its fixed-cost structure by $300 million versus 2007 spending levels. "Retail unit sales of power boats in the United States have been in decline since late 2005; however, the rate of decline has been accelerating," said CEO Dustan McCoy in a statement. The company said it would be reducing its work force by 1,000. Further work force reductions of approximately 1,000 hourly and 700 salaried employees across the company's marine business units and staff functions are contemplated. these actions are estimated to result in restructuring charges in the range of $200 million to $220 million pretax. Brunswick shares rose 3% Wednesday to $12.05.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/cause-jump-commodity-prices-not/story.aspx?guid=%7B8C746386%2D38F9%2D4310%2D8A9A%2D6C1EC97B0CBC%7D

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The cause of the spike in food prices and energy costs this year remains a mystery, but the increases seen to date are not yet a full-blown emergency, Federal Reserve Vice-Chairman Donald Kohn told a German audience Thursday.

Speaking behind closed doors at the International Research Forum on Monetary Policy sponsored by the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Kohn said higher headline rates of inflation popping up around the globe "have shown only a few tentative signs of embedding themselves in core inflation or in longer-term inflation expectations."

But the No. 2 Fed official said central banks nonetheless "must monitor the situation carefully for signs that the increases in relative prices globally do not generate persistently higher inflation."

Kohn didn't address head-on the divergent postures of the Fed and the European Central Bank toward the threat of inflation. A copy of his remarks was released in Washington.

...more...

Con-man deluxe!

Who wrote this stupid speech for this bubbleheaded POS?

Maybe he's thinking abstractly about the run-up in food and fuel costs. Kinda like the equations retailers use to establish their price relative to wholesale cost... But I doubt it. This kind of talk from such an accomplished stumble bum galls me. He has a Ph.D. in economics, right? He buys eggs, milk and coffee, right? Does he live in a house? Have a mortgage?

Now maybe the Federal Reserve (which raises its own money for its own secretive budget) has granted its members such a cushy compensation package that earthly necessities are of no concern. But this does not explain away this vacuous statement.

Perhaps Kohn would like to take a Fed all-star tour around food charities. These charities are having a hard time keeping stocks because of demand. Donations are way down too. Maybe Kohn would care to speak with a grocery store manager who can explain the factor of transportation costs in the price of food.

Or if these levels of discourse are beneath him - maybe the Andrew Liveris of Dow Chemical can give him a good talking to.

As posted yesterday:

Kohn may also discover that Dow is now adding fuel surcharges to every shipment, by truck and by rail, that leaves its factory.

Decent people should shun this idiot.

then price-inflation cannot long continue, because if workers can no longer pay high prices then either prices must fall or workers must fall (ie. die). Fewer workers-as-'consumers' would also encourage prices to fall (same supply, fewer buyers). Either outcome looks rosy in terms of the kind of business these people are interested in.

:spit:

In another thread here on DU.

Must be true then... :eyes:

*cough*Dumbasses*cough*

From The Big Picture blog:

Long time readers know I am a fan of Barron's, and frequently reference the usually fine Econoday updates of daily economic data. But the NYT's Floyd Norris points to what can only be described as the single most absurd commentary on Sentiment data you will likely read in your lifetime.



Normally at this point in our conversation, I would be railing about whether the economy is expanding, given the negative readings in jobs creation, manufacturing, income, and consumption, and how understated inflation makes GDP look better than it is regardless.

But considering that this is not a time of war, I must have another explanation. It seems I have fallen thru a tear in the fabric of spacetime into an alternate universe. Back in my universe, where the US is likely in a recession, there is also two wars going on, one in Afghanistan and one in Iraq.

This tear in the fabric of spacetime does explain some of the more absurd commentary we have heard over the past few years: That the credit crisis is contained, or the economy was doing well, that real estate has bottomed, etc. We are simultaneous inhabiting two separate universes, one where everything is going swimmingly -- and this one.

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/06/barrons-no-war.html

to see how far from reality they can stray and still have people buy their shit. This is a new record, I think. Congress just signed off on $150B more for Iraq, and yet Barron's doesn't think we're in a war-time economy.

The Marlin Company 14th Annual Attitudes in the American Workplace Poll reports the following results on June 24.



http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/06/peak-credit.html

who needs terrorists?

Deregulation wasn't bad enough, so remove the rest of the regulations.

Carlyle Hires UBS’s Sarkozy for Financial Deals

March 3, 2008, 8:10 am

The Carlyle Group, the private equity firm, said Monday that it had hired Oliver Sarkozy, one of UBS’s top investment bankers for financial services deals, to work as co-head of a similar practice.
Mr. Sarkozy, the joint global head of UBS’s financial institutions group (and half-brother to French president Nicolas Sarkozy), will join Carlyle in April and will remain based in New York.

His group will search for investment opportunities amid today’s global banking and credit crisis.
“Olivier is a remarkable addition to our financial services team,”

David Rubenstein, a Carlyle co-founder and managing director, said in a statement. “He has an incredible track record and network that will help Carlyle capitalize on the dislocation in the financial services sector and extend our record of success to this important and growing part of the global economy.”
Before UBS, Mr. Sarkozy worked at Credit Suisse. Some of the deals he has worked on over the past year include ABN Amro’s sale of LaSalle Bank to Bank of America and Sallie Mae’s attempt to sell itself to a group of investors.

/... http://speedysarkozy.blogspot.com/2008/03/sarkozy-carlyle-and-911.html

Dow 11,591.10 Down 220.73 (1.87%)
Nasdaq 2,340.67 Down 60.59 (2.52%)
S&P 500 1,297.00 Down 24.97 (1.89%)
10-Yr Bond 4.058% Down 0.057
NYSE Volume 1,307,405,125
Nasdaq Volume 690,917,500

11:05 am : The stock market has trended further downward to hit a new session low. The S&P 500 is now down approximately 1.9%, while the Dow is down by the same percentage and the Nasdaq is down 2.5%.

All ten of the major economic sectors are in the red. Eight have losses in excess of 1.0%. Four have losses in excess of 2.0%.

Dow component General Electric (GE 27.16, -0.83) is struggling this session as its stock hits a new 52-week low. Reports indicate the company is having difficulty finding a buyer for its credit card business.DJ30 -219.67 NASDAQ -60.00 SP500 -25.04 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 540/631 mln/2120 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 497/381 mln/2487

10:35 am : Stocks have moved up a bit from their session lows, but hold on to considerable losses. The session's tone has been pessimistic from the start.

90% of the S&P 500 components are trading with a loss. The only sector in the S&P 500 to sport a gain, though slight, is energy (+0.1%).

Gold, often considered a hedge against inflation, is trading 3.25% higher at nearly $909 per ounce.DJ30 -132.47 NASDAQ -42.31 SP500 -15.74 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 699/470 mln/1889 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 661/293 mln/2259

...as the Dow will probably be lower than when he took office. When was the last two term president that ever achieved that feat?

Highlights

Current:



30-day and 90-day vs.greenback:



30-day vs. Euro, Yen, UK Pound and Swiss Franc




Currency Comparison: http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Detailed analysis: http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD

Up-to-the-minute graph: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CD.Y%24%24&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=1

Historical values http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2008-05-15 Thursday, May 15 1.0004 USD
2008-05-16 Friday, May 16 1.00341 USD
2008-05-19 Monday, May 19 1.00867 USD
2008-05-20 Tuesday, May 20 1.00725 USD
2008-05-21 Wednesday, May 21 1.01626 USD
2008-05-22 Thursday, May 22 1.0141 USD
2008-05-23 Friday, May 23 1.01184 USD
2008-05-26 Monday, May 26 1.01184 USD
2008-05-27 Tuesday, May 27 1.00685 USD
2008-05-28 Wednesday, May 28 1.00878 USD
2008-05-29 Thursday, May 29 1.01307 USD
2008-05-30 Friday, May 30 1.00624 USD
2008-06-02 Monday, June 2 0.998901 USD
2008-06-03 Tuesday, June 3 0.994926 USD
2008-06-04 Wednesday, June 4 0.985707 USD
2008-06-05 Thursday, June 5 0.980873 USD
2008-06-06 Friday, June 6 0.981643 USD
2008-06-09 Monday, June 9 0.978186 USD
2008-06-10 Tuesday, June 10 0.976467 USD
2008-06-11 Wednesday, June 11 0.983284 USD
2008-06-12 Thursday, June 12 0.977517 USD
2008-06-13 Friday, June 13 0.972573 USD
2008-06-16 Monday, June 16 0.979432 USD
2008-06-17 Tuesday, June 17 0.980296 USD
2008-06-18 Wednesday, June 18 0.98174 USD
2008-06-19 Thursday, June 19 0.987167 USD
2008-06-20 Friday, June 20 0.982994 USD
2008-06-23 Monday, June 23 0.984155 USD
2008-06-24 Tuesday, June 24 0.98668 USD
2008-06-25 Wednesday, June 25 0.986777 USD


Current values

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

Market            Open   High    Low   Last  Change    Pct 
CD.Y$$ Cash     0.9905 0.9905 0.9899 0.9899 -0.0008 -0.08% 
CD.U08 Sep 2008 0.9890 0.9900 0.9875 0.9900 +0.0002 +0.02% 
CD.Z08 Dec 2008 0.9800 0.9800 0.9800 0.9892 +0.0033 +0.33% 
CD.H09 Mar 2009 0.9757 0.9757        0.9889 +0.0032 +0.32% 
CD.M09 Jun 2009 0.9995 0.9995        0.9886 +0.0031 +0.31% 
CD.U09 Sep 2009 0.9865 0.9865 0.9865 0.9883 +0.0030 +0.30%  

Other combinations: (http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies)

Market          Open    High    Low     Last    Change   Pct 
AUSTRALIAN $/CANADIAN $ (CME:ACD)
ACD.U08 Sep 2008 0.9589 0.9589 0.9589 0.9589 +0.0005 +0.05%  
BRITISH POUND/US$ (SMALL) (NYBOT:MP) 
MP.U08.E Sep 2008 (E) 1.9566 1.9566 1.9562 1.9590 +0.0032 +0.16% 
EURO/BRITISH POUND (NYBOT:GB)
GB.U08.E Sep 2008 (E) 0.79620 0.79620 0.78815 0.79580 +0.00305 +0.38%    
EURO/JAPANESE YEN (NYBOT:EJ)
EJ.U08.E Sep 2008 (E) 167.830 167.920 167.650 167.920 +0.355 +0.21%     
EURO/US$ (SMALL) (NYBOT:EO)
EO.U08.E Sep 2008 (E) 1.54115 1.54115 1.54115 1.55895 +0.00855 +0.55%    

Blather (from http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

The September Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates above the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.34. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's rally, the 50% retracement level of the May-June decline crossing at 99.23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 98.22 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 99.08. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level crossing at 99.23. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.34. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 98.22.


Analysis

If you look at the rest of the blathers, the loonie slipped against everything else except the greenback. It also lost against the Ozzie.

I realised from yesterday that Alberta is pulling a classic Keynes. I have to dodge a major infrastructure improvement to get to work and the morning traffic report gives hints to get around all the other upgrades going on. There's all sorts of highway improvements as well, mostly related to oilsands production but also tied to population increase.

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Tumbling U.S. stock markets pushed the euro to a fresh three-week high against the dollar, which was already reeling after the Federal Reserve failed to set a clear timetable for possible interest-rate increases.

The euro reached $1.5751, its highest level since June 9, while the dollar fell to Y107.13, a full yen lower from its intraday high, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell to a 52-week low. It was recently down 221 points.

...

The dollar entered the North American session on its back foot after the Fed's decision Wednesday to leave rates steady at 2%, as expected. But markets were also expecting the Fed to provide a solid clue as to when it may start raising rates to stem inflation, which would likely be a strong boost for the dollar. The Fed failed the markets in that regard, stating only that inflation worries have increased, and reminding markets that U.S. economic growth is at risk.

/... http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=77b65b1a-91ad-4655-83de-557078c2aae8

----------

June 26 (Bloomberg) -- The yen and the Swiss franc rose against all of the other major currencies as a drop in stocks encouraged investors to reduce holdings of higher-yielding assets funded in Japan and Switzerland.

The dollar declined to the weakest level versus the euro in more than two weeks on pared speculation that the Federal Reserve will increase borrowing costs in August. The pound appreciated to a seven-week high against the dollar after Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said policy makers will do what's needed to stem inflation.

...

Colombia's Peso <-- looks like Colombia's going to have to pay the price of its too-cosy relationship with Big Brother.

Colombia's peso dropped to the lowest level against the dollar in almost four months on speculation the central bank's plan to buy $20 million a day will stem the appreciation of the currency, which is up almost 10 percent this year. The peso fell 4.9 percent to 1,864 per dollar, from 1,777.50 yesterday, and touched 1,888.80, the weakest since March 7.

The pound strengthened after King said in testimony before a parliamentary committee that U.K. inflation will probably exceed 4 percent in the coming months. Sterling increased as much as 0.7 percent to $1.9895, the highest since May 2, after the BOE governor said ``although inflation is rising now, we will ensure that it falls back to the 2 percent target.''

The yen increased 2.1 percent to 13.4440 versus the South African rand, and the Swiss franc rose 1.3 percent to 1.5575 Brazilian reais, as the Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 2 percent. Investors bought the yen and the franc to pay back loans in those currencies used to fund investments in higher- yielding assets, which become less profitable when stocks fall.

...

``People are starting to wonder whether the Fed has the guts to raise rates in the first place,'' said Matthew Kassel, director of proprietary trading at ING Financial Markets LLC in New York. ``The dollar could test $1.60 in the next month.''

The chance that the Fed will increase the target rate for overnight lending between banks at its next meeting on Aug. 5 has fallen to 22 percent, from 36 percent yesterday and 44 percent a week ago, according to futures on the Chicago Board of Trade. The balance of bets is on no rate change.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=ae29d61jrvIc&refer=currency


The Norwegian Krone as the Next Reserve Currency?

Today, the Norges Bank, the Norwegian central bank, raised its policy interest rate 25 basis points to 5.75%. That puts the Norges Bank's policy rate 293 basis points over the May year-over-year CPI inflation rate on a harmonized basis (see Chart). Notice that the Norges Bank was raising its policy rate in the first half of 2007 as the inflation rate was falling. The Norges Bank is offering savers an "honest" return on their funds. Isn't this what you would look for in a reserve currency's central bank?

<-chart->

/... http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5229.html


Gold futures end with strong gains as dollar falls

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures surged nearly 4% Thursday as weakness in the U.S. dollar buoyed investment demand for the metal, lifting prices to their highest level in a month. Gold for August delivery ended up $32.80 at $915.10 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, the contract hit a high of $916.50, its highest intraday level since May 27.

/. http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/gold-futures-end-strong-gains/story.aspx?guid={ED3D5C7F-E536-45A8-B391-B5AA6405B5EF}&siteid=rss

While not technically business or stock related news, I think we all can agree that however this issue plays out, it will impact the global economy. Whether that is a continued deterioration of our natural resources to the point of malfunction or a refocusing of our best and brightest on something we do really well, when we set our mind to it: solving a very large problem.

http://www.worldwatch.org/node/5798


Today, I will testify to Congress about global warming, 20 years after my June 23, 1988 testimony, which alerted the public that global warming was under way. There are striking similarities between then and now, but one big difference.

Again a wide gap has developed between what is understood about global warming by the relevant scientific community and what is known by policymakers and the public. Now, as then, frank assessment of scientific data yields conclusions that are shocking to the body politic. Now, as then, I can assert that these conclusions have a certainty exceeding 99 percent.

The difference is that now we have used up all slack in the schedule for actions needed to defuse the global warming time bomb. The next President and Congress must define a course next year in which the United States exerts leadership commensurate with our responsibility for the present dangerous situation.

:eyes:

the countdown to 10,578.24 has begun...

dp

tomorrow.. :evilgrin:

quick.... issue another tax funded bailout! "We the People" must take care of the rich!

Who needs a reality-based world? End of problem!

12:15
Dow 11,577.09 Down 234.74 (1.99%)
Nasdaq 2,340.58 Down 60.68 (2.53%)
S&P 500 1,295.22 Down 26.75 (2.02%)
10-Yr Bond 4.066% Down 0.049
NYSE Volume 1,909,491,750
Nasdaq Volume 951,474,562.5

12:00 pm : All ten of the S&P 500 economic sectors remain in the red as the stock market fights to move back above 1300. Pessimism has been widespread for the entire session amid mixed earnings results and underwhelming forecasts from several corporate players.

The financial sector has come under heavy pressure, currently down 2.9%, after Goldman Sachs lowered its rating on the broker sector and indicated Citigroup (C 17.78, -1.07) may incur additional write-downs and may also raise more capital, according to reports. Reports also indicated Goldman believes Merrill Lynch (MER 33.94, -1.52) may also raise capital. Shares of C were added to Goldman’s Conviction Sell List, according to Dow Jones.

Goldman also cut estimates for Dow Jones Industrials component General Motors (GM 11.46, -1.35). Shares of GM are trading at multiyear lows.

Fellow Dow component General Electric (GE 27.20, -0.79) has hit a new 52-week low of its own. According to The Wall Street Journal, the company is reportedly having difficulty finding a buyer for its credit card business.

On the economic front, the final first quarter GDP reading indicated the economy grew at 1.0%, which is on par with what economists were expecting and up slightly from the prior reading. Personal consumption expenditures were revised upward to 1.1%, while the GDP price index came in at 2.7%. The component changes in the report are not significant enough to alter second quarter forecast trends.

Jobless claims for the week ending June 21 exceeded expectations, totaling 384,000, and were unchanged from the prior week. Continuing claims were reported at 3.139 million, which is above the expected 3.105 million claims and up from the prior week’s reduced reading of 3.057 million continuing claims.

Existing home sales rose 2% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.99 million, which is better than the expected increase of 1.2%.

Considered a hedge against inflation, gold and oil are sporting gains. The yellow metal is up 3.7% to $912 per ounce, while crude is up 2.4% to $137.85 per barrel. DJ30 -209.17 NASDAQ -55.99 SP500 -22.92 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 581/893 mln/2178 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 530/542 mln/2538

12:35
Dow 11,551.28 Down 260.55 (2.21%)
Nasdaq 2,336.38 Down 64.88 (2.70%)
S&P 500 1,291.82 Down 30.15 (2.28%)
10-Yr Bond 4.06% Down 0.055
NYSE Volume 2,078,094,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,031,141,500

11,566.51 -245.32 -2.08%
as of 12:43 PM EDT on 06/26/2008

by bonddad

(excerpted)

From Bloomberg:


.....

Here's an example. One of the big problems with the current situation is CDOs/CLOs (collateralized debt obligations and collateralized loan obligations). These are pools of mortgages and/or loans that are cut up in different ways to different investors. (Here is a link to Wikipedia for a general explanation.) These structures have been around for about 25 years in one form or another and in general have worked as advertised. But there has been some call for an outright banning of these structures. This is akin to throwing the baby out with the bathwater. Something has to be done to prevent the current situation from happening again. But that something can't be so extreme as to make it impossible to get any business done.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/6/26/62339/6572/927/542169

http://www.star-telegram.com/business/story/721427.html

"The wieners quickly disappeared."

Edit: This article is littered with innuendo. Seriously.

Seriously.

I'm sure your interest in the article was genuine and I regret I wasn't able to edit my initial reply
to remove the jest. You've taken an article from a large legitimate news source, but, the writing in the article is
amazingly explicit in it's subtext. After reading the whole text, I can only conclude the reporter is somehow
bored or disaffected with the assignment.

*sigh* I'll chalk this up to another sign of the times.

Sorry, antigop...

snaking lines... "mounting"(?) the event... an "unexpectedly large" turnout.. due to a "tight" job market... disappearing wieners...

Homeboy needs to get laid is my guess.

to find the DOW under 12K, was wondering when the hell that happened and now this. Damn! I wasn't expecting this until after the summer.

This is bizarre, isn't it? It's not even a witching day.

and it's not run by folks as friendly and understanding as the Fed.

But, what do I know.

to gather as much wool as possible before the critters bolt for the gate in a stampede. :shrug:

Of course there is still the "mutton" man guarding the gate.

would it?

Another highlight for *'s resume - right after the all-time execution record for Governors.

:thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup:
:thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup:

Problems are continuing to grow sharply among Alt-A borrowers, despite a dearth of pending rate resets, underscoring just how much home price depreciation is affecting borrowers in key housing markets nationwide.

A new report released by Clayton Fixed Income Services, Inc. on Wednesday afternoon found that 60+ day delinquency percentages and roll rates increased in every vintage during May among Alt-A loans, while cure rates have declined only for 2003 and 2007 vintages.

The picture being painted for Alt-A is increasingly beginning to look a whole lot like subprime, as a result, even if peaking resets in the loan class aren’t expected until the middle of next year. In particular, loss severity continues to ratchet upward — a trend that portends some likely further reassessment of rating models at each of the major credit rating agencies, as they catch up with the data.

Loss severity — the average amount lost relative to unpaid principal balance — reached 41.4 percent for all Alt-A first liens in REO during the most recent rolling six month period through May, Clayton said; that was up from a 37.6 percent rolling average one month earlier, and compares to a similar 49 percent loss severity average for subprime first liens liquidated in REO through May.

Those numbers make Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services latest assumption of 35 percent loss severity on Alt-A loans, only one month old, already start to look a little too conservative. The rating agency’s updated loss severity assumption was one key reason the agency cut ratings of 1,326 Alt-A residential mortgage-backed securities in late May — and put another 567 AAA-rated tranches on negative ratings watch.

http://www.housingwire.com/2008/06/26/alt-a-performance-gets-much-worse-in-may/

DJ EURO STOXX 50 € Pr 3,366.35 -94.05 -2.72%
FTSE 100 INDEX 5,518.20 -147.90 -2.61%
CAC 40 INDEX 4,426.19 -110.10 -2.43%
DAX INDEX 6,459.60 -158.24 -2.39%
IBEX 35 INDEX 12,077.70 -368.40 -2.96%
S&P/MIB INDEX 29,373.00 -636.00 -2.12%
AMSTERDAM EXCHANGES INDX 426.03 -13.53 -3.08%
OMX STOCKHOLM 30 INDEX 880.56 -30.08 -3.30%
SWISS MARKET INDEX 6,949.73 -131.64 -1.86%

ER
Its inching down to 300 I wonder if It'll go down 400 like it did couple Fridays ago
DJIA 11,516.76 -295.07 -2.50%

oils at 139.40 4.85


140.00 5.45 4.05%
as of 02:20 PM EDT on 06/26/2008 in USD (NYMEX D

according to the site: www.justducks.co.uk/

"Ducks are the new Black"

I think I need a drink.......

:beer: they aught to change it to shock market

:smoke: http://uk.reuters.com/news/video?videoId=85200&videoChannel=4

...The migratory flights of the passenger pigeon were spectacular. The birds flew at an estimated speed of about sixty miles an hour. Observers reported the sky was darkened by huge flocks that passed overhead. These flights often continued from morning until night and lasted for several days... http://www.si.edu/Encyclopedia_SI/nmnh/passpig.htm

Seriously. :spray:

Great sector, possibly a good ETF, but a most unfortunate ticker symbol!

...The PowerShares Global Wind Energy Portfolio (PWND) is based on the NASDAQ OMX Clean Edge® Global Wind Energy Index. This index includes companies that are primarily manufacturers, developers, distributors, installers and users of energy derived from wind sources. The Index selects companies listed on global stock exchanges and uses a modified market capitalization-weighted methodology, with consideration to trading volume and float-adjusted market capitalization minimums. The index is reconstituted semi-annually and rebalanced quarterly.

Index Country Weightings as of 6/23/2008

Index
Country Weight
Belgium 5.67%
Canada 3.14%
Denmark 14.00%
France 8.00%
Germany 16.52%
Greece 1.24%
Hong Kong 5.03%
Japan 2.29%
Spain 22.69%
Switzerland 3.75%
United Kingdom 6.13%
United States 11.55%

Source: The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc., based on hypothetical Index information as of June 23, 2008. The Index was not yet operational as of June 23, 2008. Allocations represent the percentages that would have been utilized if the Index had been operational. Data is subject to change. Index values do not represent Fund values. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

/... http://finance.boston.com/boston?ChannelID=3198&GUID=5844558&Page=MediaViewer

It's a slow motion crash.

Was much of it due to interest rates being stable? The market was probably expecting another cut to stay neutral or have a short-term rally.

and stop acting like a big bunch of crybabies.

All the Deep Pockets have left town early for the 4th of July, anyway.

This may take extra hands on deck to get it all cleaned up in time for lights, camera, action tomorrow.

Julie

And a 3 day weekend for those who can swing it.

une 26 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks tumbled, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average to its worst June since the Great Depression, as record oil prices, credit-market writedowns and a slowing economy threatened to extend a yearlong profit slump.

General Motors Corp., the largest U.S. automaker, plunged the most in three years as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. advised selling the stock and crude rose by $5 a barrel. Citigroup Inc. led the KBW Bank Index to an almost 10-year low as Goldman said the lender may report an $8.9 billion second-quarter charge and cut its dividend. Research In Motion Ltd., maker of the BlackBerry, posted its biggest drop since 2001 on concern competition with Apple Inc.'s iPhone is reducing earnings.

....

``Most investors are going to sit on the sidelines until they're more certain the sharks have left the waters and it's safe to go back in,'' said Bruce McCain, the Cleveland-based head of investment strategy at Key Private Bank, which oversees about $30 billion. ``The write-offs have been far worse than anyone would have imagined.''

....

Citigroup, Merrill

Citigroup dropped $1.18, or 6.3 percent, to $17.67 today, the lowest level since October 1998. Goldman added the biggest U.S. lender by assets to its ``conviction sell'' list and lowered its recommendation on U.S. brokerages to ``neutral'' from ``attractive,'' saying the pace of deterioration in the industry ``appears to be far worse than'' it originally anticipated.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aBzD.V1iluuA&refer=home

---

Good to know that this whole credit mess is contained like Bernanke and Paulson said a year ago. Does "contained" mean "to this planet", ya think?

Attaboy! Not since the Great Depression have we seen a month like this. Huzzah, chump!

:hide:

Very very close... Maybe... I'll call you when it's a Recession, Don't call us.

Don't email us either... Cuz WE WON'T OPEN IT! That'll teach ya! :P


:lol:

The new ones are 75% of the value so you're already in the hole.

Who still has the pool queue about oil hitting $150/bbl?

I said last two weeks of May or first two weeks of June.

Okay, so I was off by a couple of days.


( eek! )

I guess we'll have to start a new Pool Queue.

:hide:

"Guess the date the DJIA rolls back to the level it was when * took office (10,578.24). You can revise your dates up until Labor Day (the working man's holiday) or the DJIA hits 11000 (Must have a cut off). Anyone can join, just give a date and your reasoning for that date.

bahrbearian.....7/1
Finnfan......7/2
InkAddict.....7/3
Karenia.....7/8
UIA.....7/15
alterfurz... 7/22
Roland99.....7/28 (Alternate 10/17)
TOJ........... 7/31
Abelenkpe.....8/2
Ghost Dog... 8/5
TalkingDog... 8/16
dweller.... 8/19
Dr.Phool... 8/23
Nadinebrezezinski.....9/1
MattSh... 9/2
kineneb.....9/4
Prag.....9/5
MoJo Rabbit.....9/5
kickysnana.... 9/8
MuleBoy(aka hiz honna da mayor).....9/11
radfringe.... 9/11
Nickster.....9/12
ozymandius... 9/19
Demeter......9/21
ozone_man.... 9/23
Birthmark....10/10
Tansy_Gold...10/13
DemReadingDU.10/16
AnneD....10/24
Neshanic.....10/24
MsLeopard.....10/31
Wordpix.....11/3
PassingFair...11/4
Ship wrack.....11/5
Wednesdays..... 1/16/09 (Subscribes to the 'turned 3 corners too many' theory.)


Remember-you can change the dates as we learn more. If your date isn't on the list, e-mail me and I'll add it the next time I post. I erased expired dates so you can guess again. I post about one a week-more often the closer we get to the number. The winner get the praise and admiration of those on the Stockwatch Thread. There is still time to place your bets.....And no Reggie bars in the pool please. Also, you'll notice this is an 'OOL', Please keep it that way."

NOTE: I'm going to enter this in my Journal so that any future Volunteer Lifeguards can pick it up to post from there.

I expect the PPT to do some heavy lifting, even take a position against itself in the coming days and weeks.

:popcorn:Third Time's the Charm lol crazy as things are going we may see thousand point rally :shrug: