STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday June 30

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday June 30, 2008

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 205
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2717 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2442 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2733
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES &
MARKETS INDICATORS>
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON June 27, 2008

Dow... 11,346.51 -106.91 (-0.93%)
Nasdaq... 2,315.63 -5.74 (-0.25%)
S&P 500... 1,278.38 -4.77 (-0.37%)
Gold future... 931.30 +16.20 (+1.74%)
30-Year Bond 4.54% -0.07 (-1.43%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.99% -0.04 (-1.07%)






GOLD,EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact actionpost@legitgov.org

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

a Double Non-Confirmation
BY TIM W. WOOD

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm">link to drivel

Doesn't a double-negative make it a positive?

Tim Wood's ideology is getting in the way of his brain.

09:45 Chicago PMI Jun
Briefing.com 49.0
Consensus 48.5
Prior 49.1

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

NEW YORK - Oil futures climbed to a new record near $143 a barrel Friday as the dollar weakened against the euro, confirming expectations that the falling greenback, a major factor in crude's stratospheric rise, will extend its decline and add to oil's appeal.

Retail gas prices inched lower overnight, but are likely to resume their own trek into record territory now that oil futures have broken out of the trading range where they had been for nearly 3 weeks.

Light, sweet crude for August delivery rose as high as $142.99 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange before pulling back sharply in a spate of late-day profit-taking to settle up 57 cents at a record $140.21. On Thursday, the contract shot past $140 and rose more than $5 to a new settlement record.

The latest record came as the dollar fell against the euro in afternoon trading, having traded roughly unchanged for much of the day.

.....

"Oil's back in favor, especially with people bailing out of the stock market," said Jim Ritterbusch, president of energy consultancy Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Ill.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

WASHINGTON - Four-dollar-a-gallon gasoline has stolen a beach vacation in South Carolina from Julie Jacobs' family and exotic bath washes from Angela Crawford. Phil English had to sell his beloved but fuel-guzzling red pickup.

Like a plague that does not discriminate by economic class, race or age, soaring fuel prices are inflicting pain throughout the U.S. Nine in 10 are expecting the ballooning costs to squeeze them financially over the next half-year, an Associated Press-Yahoo News poll released Monday says.

Nearly half think that hardship will be serious. To cope, most are driving less, easing off the air conditioning and heating at home and cutting corners elsewhere. Half are curtailing vacation plans; nearly as many are considering buying cars that burn less gas.

....

Lower-income people, of course, are bearing the brunt of it. As higher prices push grocery, pizza delivery and other costs upward, just over half of those without college degrees — and about the same number earning less than $50,000 a year — are expecting serious personal financial problems to result.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080630/ap_on_re_us/ap_yahoo_poll_gas_prices

People are getting hammered by high gasoline prices now. Come about mid-October, and they'll have to pay to heat their homes too.

It's going to be a double - whammy for a lot of families.

"Like a plague that does not discriminate by economic class, race or age"

Utter bullshit.

Taken on it's face and in terms of being factual, yes, it's true. Everybody (except those with access to cheaper fuel - like some governmental workers and those who get stipends for travel costs and those who get free public transportation if they take the Metro instead of driving) is paying more for the fuel they put in their cars.

But this plague of price does not randomly infect. The lower classes, including the elderly on fixed incomes are, by a proportional measure, paying huge sums of their weekly salary for fuel.

Comparing it to a plague which, in the real world, gives everyone similar symptoms and fairly equal chances of dying would be more accurate if the poor and elderly's symptoms were 5 times as bad and they died at 3 times the rate of the rich.

And just so we don't take except to my example and point out that the elderly do die more often in an epidemic, I'll point out the 1918 influenza which struck, at a substantially higher rate, young, healthy adults.

It's misdirection and minimization. Don't think about the folks who are really suffering, cause you are suffering too.....(just not as bad as them)

Quote from the article:

"Four in 10 people in families earning $50,000 to $100,000 annually, and one in six earning more than that, expect serious financial hardships from rising gas costs..."

One in six! Kinda tells ya something, doesn't it?

To put this in perspective, $50,000 annually is roughly $25/hour. What's Wal-Mart paying these days? eight bucks, maybe nine? What's a Starbucks barista make? and how many of these people are lucky enough to get 40 hours a week every week without fail?

What's the max for social security? I'll bet it ain't $4000/month.

Point being, there are a whole lot of people who fall under that magical $50k figure, and $4 gas is hitting them HARD. They don't have a South Carolina beach vacation to give up. They're probably already only driving to and from work, if they have a car; if they don't, they don't get free passes on public transportation, and they'll get hit when the price of diesel pushes bus fares higher. And they probably aren't in jobs where they can work a four-day week or telecommute.

The "other Americans" are still invisible.



Tansy Gold, one of the invisible

:donut:Truer words were never spoken.....

Today is shaping up to be...interesting shall we say. As one crook said to the other-scram-the jig is up. All I saw this week end was the reports of the market going into a bear market from all these surprised economists.:eyes: I will post some numbers for the pool a bit further down. I may extend the change date past the 11000 cut off because I feel they will be pumping in enough money to keep it from cratering more than it has. Remember the name of the game is to keep everyone calm. Right now, there are too many eyes looking at this. I think levels will hold until we get into the next quarter.

To be honest-I got out of major holding in stock when they first hit 13000 over 2 years ago. Now I do feel bad about missing the last rally, but I did manage to retire some credit card debt at 29%-so my money actually earned 29% in interest saved....far better than what I could have made in the market. When I think of that, I know I made the right choice. We move further in to our jobs, and that proved to be another good choice.

What we are going through is not a simple market cycle, we are experiencing a major , deep seated socio-economic change. The life and lifestyle than we have always know is undergoing a profound change. Some of these factors were put into place earlier, but the severity and intensity of the pain of these changes have been exacerbated by the choices the Bush Admin has made. It will get worse and God help us all.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

I wonder if they will even try, though. They are following the fearless leader and taking a month off for vacation from their stressful jobs.

I especially like the quotes around the bottom of the monument.

Ah, if I only had a nickle for every time I've heard each of those repeated until my ears are numb and
I'm seeing parrots.


So, the SMW Theme for today is the classic automotive ear worm:

"Chitty Chitty Bang Bang" (With apologies to Ian Fleming and a movie I do enjoy)
Music and Lyrics by The Sherman Brothers

Jeremy:
What a funny noise it's making!

Caractacus:
It's talking to us--all engines talk!

Jemima:
What's it saying?
It's saying Chitty chitty, chitty chitty, chitty chitty, chitty chitty,
chitty chitty,
(Bang - Bang)
Bang Bang!
chitty chitty
Chitty Chitty Bang Bang
Chitty Chitty Bang Bang
Chitty Chitty Bang Bang.
Chitty Chitty Bang Bang.
Chitty Bang Bang Chitty Chitty Bang Bang
Chitty Bang Bang Chitty Chitty Bang Bang
Chitty Bang Bang Chitty Chitty Bang Bang
Oh you pretty Chitty Bang Bang,
Chitty Chitty Bang Bang
We love you.
And, in
Chitty Chitty Bang Bang
Chitty Chitty Bang Bang
What we'll do.
Near, far, in our motor car Oh what a happy time we'll spend.
Bang Bang Chitty Chitty Bang Bang
Our fine four fendered friend.
Bang Bang Chitty Chitty Bang Bang
Our fine four fendered friend.
Chitty Bang Bang
Chitty Chitty Bang Bang
Chitty Bang Bang
Chitty Chitty Bang Bang
Chitty Bang Bang
Chitty Chitty Bang Bang
Oh you pretty Chitty Bang Bang
Chitty Chitty Bang Bang
We love you.
And, in
Chitty Chitty Bang Bang
Chitty Chitty Bang Bang
What we'll do.
Near, far, in our motor car
Oh what a happy time we'll spend.
Bang Bang Chitty Chitty Bang Bang
Our fine four fendered friend.
Bang Bang Chitty Chitty Bang Bang
Our fine four fendered friend.
Your sleek as a thoroughbred.
Your seats are a feather bed.
You'll turn everybody's head today.
We'll glide on our motor trip
With pride in our ownership
The envy of all we survey.
Oh Chitty You Chitty
Pretty Chitty Bang Bang
Chitty Chitty Bang Bang
We love you.
And Chitty, in Chitty
Pretty Chitty Bang Bang
Chitty Chitty Bang Bang what we'll do.
Near Chitty, far Chitty, in our motor car Oh what a happy time we'll spend.
Bang Bang Chitty Chitty Bang Bang
Our fine four fendered friend.
Bang Bang Chitty Chitty Bang Bang
Our fine four fendered friend.....(hold)
Chitty Chitty Bang Bang
Chitty Chitty Bang Bang
Fine four fendered Chitty Chitty friend."

Note: If you think I'm going to spell check this, you're out of your ever loving mind. :)

http://www.allmusicals.com/lyrics/chittychittybangbang/chittychittybangbang.htm

If we like it or not, that will be the only choice. Worked for them for many years.

Who made the expression, "We'll sell you a car in any color you like, as long as it's black." famous.

As long as it's Obama or Hillary. The other company gives us a choice of McSame.

Yay!!!!

01. August crude up $1.69 to $141.90 a barrel on Nymex
8:42 AM ET, Jun 30, 2008

PHOENIX - Admit it. That chunky carry-on bag of yours would never fit into the sample box displayed outside the airport gate.

Don't expect that bag to get a free ride for long.

Checked bags are now a moneymaker for US Airways, American Airlines and United Airlines, and officials say they're going to keep a closer watch on how much you take on board as they begin their new baggage fees.

.....

The airlines point out that the carry-on policy came from the Federal Aviation Administration, not the industry, and they have an obligation to keep people from sneaking bulky bags onto planes to avoid fees. Not only is it unfair to the honest, fee-paying traveler, they say, but it would also overload the overhead bins and force gate crews to delay takeoffs while they checked excess bags.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080630/ap_on_bi_ge/carry_on_bags

REDMOND, Wash. - Microsoft Corp. is scheduled to stop selling its Windows XP operating system to retailers and major computer makers Monday, despite protests from a slice of PC users who don't want to be forced into using XP's successor, Vista.

Once computers loaded with XP have been cleared from the inventory of PC makers such as Dell Inc. and Hewlett-Packard Co., consumers who can't live without the old operating system on their new machine will have to buy Vista Ultimate or Vista Business and then legally "downgrade" to XP.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080630/ap_on_hi_te/microsoft_xp

for Linux. :)

Peguinistas, unite!

Amazing.

it worked for "old Coke", didn't it?

CompUSA will sell you a system, or just the CPU with no operating system.

I wonder why they shot there self's in the foot with an over priced OS that didn't work lol. I can't understand they would have made more money producing just one Os that actually worked instead of 2 or 3 different bloated verity's.The same go's for sony with there PS3 and XB360 which were so expensive they price most of there customers out of the market.Maybe windozs 7 will be better who knows lol

but then, he does networks for a living.

NEW YORK - Stocks headed for a mixed open Monday as oil prices set a new trading record and investors awaited a regional manufacturing reading for hints about where the market might be headed after last week's steep sell-off.

Light, sweet crude traded above $143 per barrel for the first time, rising $3.07 to $143.28 in premarket electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Rising prices have weighed on stock markets worldwide because of worries that inflation will force consumers and businesses to pare spending and hurt the economy. In the U.S., consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity so a sharp pullback could prove particularly damaging to the economy.

.....

Monday is the last day of the second quarter, and institutional investors will be looking to make any changes that will put the best light on battered portfolios.

Dow futures fell 17, or 0.15 percent, to 11,340. Standard & Poor's 500 index futures rose 0.30, or 0.02 percent, to 1,280.30, and Nasdaq 100 index futures fell 6.75, or 0.36 percent, to 1,859.00.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080630/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/wall_street

https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=19066


28th of June, 9:10
BRUSSELS/AMSTERDAM - Fortis expects a complete collapse of the US financial markets within a few days to weeks. That explains, according to Fortis, the series of interventions of last Thursday to retrieve € 8 billion. "We have been saved just in time. The situation in the US is much worse than we thought", says Fortis chairman Maurice Lippens. Fortis expects bankruptcies amongst 6000 American banks which have a small coverage currently. But also Citigroup, General Motors, there is starting a complete meltdown in the US"


This fits in the picture, with the other press releases last week, like the short advise of Goldman Sachs and some other of the same messages last week.

Although gold has rallied a lot lost week: first thing monday morning: short Dow, long Gold?

Or will there be a rate cut, which undermines (delays) everything?

Rate cuts have helped the big banks for sure. Access to cheap money to fill in the holes on their balance sheets was the main purpose of those cuts. But they can't fix everything. Now it seems that rate cuts caused severe damage to the monetary system in the form of inflation. Wild inflation. Businesses that were supposed to benefit from these rate cuts are now hurt by their consequences.

What a speedy rise and fall we have seen with Chopper Ben. He hasn't been around long enough to grow a cult following like Greenscam. And now his credibility is shot with fellow central bankers overseas.

csillyNBc this morning someone must of put some crank in there creamer this morning

BASEL, June 30 (Reuters) - The global rise in inflation is top of the agenda at the central bankers' gathering at the Bank for International Settlements' (BIS) annual general meeting in Basel.

Below are highlights of comments made by central bankers attending the BIS AGM in Basel:

POLISH CENTRAL BANK GOVERNOR SLAWOMIR SKRZYPEK

"It (inflation) is a very major concern for me, not just for me but all central bankers. Around 40 percent of our inflation comes from a global impact. Therefore the global impact is very important for us, especially food prices.

/continues... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSL3012666320080630?sp=true

6/28/08 From Mr. Mortgage...
What they have in common is all have recently predicted a massive unraveling of the US financial ’system’ within a few weeks. It is not as if this prediction or being on the verge of a meltdown is something new. The financial system has come apart several times in the past year but the Fed has always stepped in with something that has caused the markets to calm down (on the surface) and stocks to rally. Bonds, however, have never responded in quite the manner of stock market participants who each time in the past have become irrationally exuberant when Bernanke says that ‘all is good’ or decides to throw money around such as the couple of hundred billion to the investment banks in March. In my mind having to create facilities like the TAF in the first place meant the situation was dire.

In the past few weeks fear has come back in full force complete with blown out credit spreads and crashing financial sector stocks. However, this time around the Fed does not have the fire power nor the market confidence behind them because every measure they have taken thus far has only drained their reserves, delayed the inevitable, caused other problems elsewhere for the US and global economies and has not fixed the problem.

From day one the banks, Government and talking heads on bubblevision have been in denial or resorted to outright lying, in an orchestrated attempt to talk the markets into healing instead of doing what needs to be done, which is admitting there is a problem and taking necessary measures and lumps. Oppenheimer’s Meredith Whitney has been preaching this for a year about the banks in particular. In March she said she had downgraded bank’s earnings estimates 22 times in three months and coming out of the closet is the first step to balance sheet repair.


read to find what Fleckenstein, Fortis, RBS and Barclays have said...
http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/2008/06/28/what-do-fleck-fortis-rbs-and-barclays-have-in-common/

edit: tinyurl for above link...
(page downward to read the text)
http://tinyurl.com/5dtm9e

The list is long. You could also add personal debt, national debt, bond issues, monolines. Like I said - the list is long.

Remarkable about this, though, is the role the Federal Reserve should play in this scenario. Remember our history lesson about the financial meltdown in 1907? Small and regional banks were embroiled in a solvency and confidence crisis. J.P. Morgan called a meeting among his colleagues from the big banks. Fearing contagion, they formulated a rescue plan, mainly consisting of short-term loans, that stalled the run on the smaller institutions. This is the role our Federal Reserve is supposed to play today.

Only that no one has confidence in the Fed. The first step toward recovery is admitting a problem. The Fed just cannot seem to do that toward healthy satisfaction.

As long as the Fed can safely keep the billions for the ultra super wealthy, it does not see problem.

If the ultra super wealthy suddenly lose all their wealth, the Fed may see it has a problem, but by then, I don't think the Fed will care because the ultra super wealthy have transferred their billions to secret overseas accounts.

Win-win for them, lose-lose for the rest of us.


:(

6/30/08 The end of the superbubble By Bill Fleckenstein

That sound you hear is the popping of a financial bubble in housing, the economy and the market. And you can trace it all to Alan Greenspan's Federal Reserve.

Reading the papers, it's quite clear that the enormity of the problems facing Americans (and the world, for that matter) has emerged to the fore. Consequently, I decided a quick recap of our troubles might be useful.

There is a budding realization that the housing bubble's collapse will be more difficult than the masses and Wall Street had believed. You could see this last week as the market moved back toward the lowest levels since the collapse began last fall.

It's now obvious that this is a problem not only for the consumer but for the financial system itself, which is in dire straits as it tries to deleverage, thereby compounding the problem.

In addition, it has become common to see stories about runaway inflation somewhere around the globe, with riots and protests against high food prices being a binding theme.

For quite a while, many believed that because sovereign wealth funds were deemed to be flush with money, the banks and brokers could just grab some capital from overseas investors and cash-rich nations and go back to doing what they had done before. That has clearly turned out not to be the case.

However, leverage is quite capable of creating the illusion of liquidity. Thus what many had seen as excess liquidity was simply massive leverage, which is now being unwound. (The surfeit of savings, which is what "liquidity" alludes to, never existed.)

All of these problems trace their roots to Alan Greenspan's years at the head of the Federal Reserve.

more...
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/ContrarianChronicles/TheEndOfTheSuperbubble.aspx

I rarely tune to CNBC. Unless I'm at the gym, and every other TV is tuned to it and muted. Or, I've been out all day, and catch the closing bell (Just for SMW Pool standings).

On Friday, the wife and I spent the day trudging around Busch Gardens, and exhausted, went to bed. I woke up about 3:30am, and got a bottle of water out of the fridge, a smoke, and turned on the TV. Nothing on my 300 channels. Even the Weather Channel wasn't showing weather, so I wound up at CNBC.

There, I was treated to a circus clown named Cramer. I watched this buffoon for about 15 minutes jumping around like a mad scientist with his noise-making gizmos. And for the life of me, I couldn't figure out what the fuck this guy was babbling about. It was like an old Cheech and Chong movie, or something you'd see at the midnight movies in the early '70s. It was "Reefer Madness" reborn. But, since I gave up drugs, decades ago, it wasn't nearly as funny.

People actually take investment advice from these clowns? Am I missing something? Did the drugs of my youth do more damage than I thought?

I have been doing much better since I stopped listening to these guys. Yeah I might look into a company they talk about or check out one with interesting numbers, but I do my own due diligence. It pays off to the point that my broker pays attention to what I put my money in and asks me questions. He has long ago given up selling me something.

What is that phrase-for entertainment value only.

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 72.128 Change -0.149 (-0.21%)

Can The Dollar Recover?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/Can_The_Dollar_Recover__1214774910404.html

Last week we noted that dollar’s fate was in Fed’s hands stating that, “as the FOMC rate announcement takes place on Wednesday currency traders will get a much better idea if Chairman Bernanke is serious about raising rates or is merely bluffing.” After the Fed’s ambiguous statement the markets decided that the FOMC is not truly serious enough about fighting inflation and the greenback fell across the board.

We wrote on Friday, that the Fed missed a golden opportunity to surprise the market with a rate hike this week, which no doubt would have hurt stocks but may have also broken the back of oil speculators by strengthening the dollar while making credit more expensive. Instead FOMC’s dilly-dallying produced the worst of all worlds. Oil prices skyrocketed breaking the $140/bbl handle, stocks fell sharply as a result and the dollar continued to weaken not only against the euro, but the yen as well.

With the greenback clearly on the defensive, next week shapes up to be even more interesting than the last. Because of the July 4th holiday the NFP report will be released on Thursday rather than Friday right at the same time as the post rate announcement news conference by the ECB. The volatility in the pair could therefore be massive, especially if there are surprises on both side of the equation.

If US employment situation deteriorates more that the market expects (and given the recent trend in jobless claims there are good reasons to think that it will) the prospect of Fed rate hikes will dim even more. Therefore the combination of progressively worse US economic data along with relentlessly restrictive ECB monetary policy may create even more weakness for the dollar in the days ahead and lay the foundation for another runs at all time highs. - BS



...more...

Dollar Dumped Across The Board, Aussie at 25 Year High – Parity Next?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio2/Dollar_Dumped_Across_The_Board__1214818219770.html

No respite for dollar longs as the trading week started out much the same way that last week ended with the greenback weak across the board. The EURUSD rose to 1.5830 while USDJPY broke below the 105.00 figure as risk aversion continued to dominate flow. Record high oil prices have soured demand for equities as investors now fear an onset of a global economic slowdown with a risk of a possible recession looming on the horizon in the second half of 2008. Over the past few days several financial services firms have issued dire warnings regarding present dangers to global economic growth and their research has weighed on speculative sentiment in the FX market.

As to the EURUSD we noted in our weekly that, “If US employment situation deteriorates more that the market expects (and given the recent trend in jobless claims there are good reasons to think that it will) the prospect of Fed rate hikes will dim even more. Therefore the combination of progressively worse US economic data along with relentlessly restrictive ECB monetary policy may create even more weakness for the dollar in the days ahead and lay the foundation for another run at all time highs.”

On the economic front the EZ headline CPI numbers tonight printed at 4.0% vs. 3.9% projected providing further support to ECB’s hawkish policy stance, Inflation in the region is now running fully 200 basis point above ECB targets and the monetary authorities in Frankfurt are likely to redouble their efforts to maintain a restrictive monetary policy for the foreseeable future.

Meanwhile, the AUDUSD has enjoyed a stealthy, quiet rally and now stands at 25 year highs. The unit broke the previous high of 9655 in overnight trade and now stands ready to challenge the 9700 barrier. Although the Aussie sports one of the highest yields in the industrialized world, the unit latest strength is most likely a manifestation of anti-dollar flows rather than internal strength. If dollar weakness persists, the AUDUSD could reach parity on pure momentum alone, however we are skeptical about its longer term prospects.

No economy is more leveraged to the global growth cycle than Australia. As the primary supplier of commodities to China, the country has enjoyed meteoric economic growth over the past 3 years. However, if China’s two biggest customers – EZ and US - will begin to curb demand then China’s appetite for Australian goods will decline rapidly, most likely leading to a less restrictive RBA monetary policy in 2009. Parity in AUDUSD could happen, but we doubt that the unit could sustain those values unless the USD collapses completely.

Certainly the economic prospects for the buck do not look promising. Today the US calendar brings the Chicago PMI data which may be a precursor to the national ISM manufacturing report later in the week. The market expects a decline to 48.4 from the 49.1 the month prior and should the report miss to the downside it would only exacerbate the anti-dollar sentiment that pervades the market already.

...more...

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/06/bis-warns-of-deepening-contraction-not.html

The newly-released annual report of the Bank of International Settlements sounds as if it is unusually lively reading. Most official documents strive for an anodyne tone, while this one appears to be unusually blunt. However, while some reporters have their hands on it, the report is not yet up on the BIS website, so those of us among the great unwashed will have to wait a day or two.

In the meantime, we'll turn to Ambrose Evans-Pritchard's write-up at the Telegraph, and assuming his summary is faithful, the BIS author, Bil White, is a man after my own heart. There is a lot of meaty stuff in the BIS report: criticism of bubble-enabling central banks, a forecast of a burst of inflation followed by nasty deflation, and skepticism about the wisdom and viability of fiscal stimulus (explicit and implicit government obligations are already too high). The BIS also charges the regulators (the Fed appears particularly guilty) with having excessively low policy rates and being asleep at the switch as the shadow banking system grew in size and importance.

Not even goldbugs can take cheer from this survey. From the Telegraph:



It's like a humiliating kick in the crotch for Greenscam fans.

6/30/08 BIS warns of worsening credit crisis and deflation

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard writes in today's Telegraph of the BIS annual report, which is unusually cautious about the global economy. His article makes for sobering reading.

Bill White, the departing chief economist at the BIS, in writing his last annual report before departure. has warned that this financial crisis is the worst since the Great Depression and that deflation is the ultimate risk for a de-leveraging world financial system.

more...
http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/06/bis-warns-of-worsening-credit-crisis.html


Here is the link to the BIS report, overview
http://www.bis.org/events/agm2008/ar2008o.htm

NEW YORK (Fortune) -- Even Warren Buffett is wrong some of the time. Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke is hoping this is one of them.

Buffett, the billionaire investor behind Berkshire Hathaway, fingered "exploding" inflation Wednesday as the biggest risk to the economy. "I think inflation is really picking up," Buffett said on CNBC. "It's huge right now, whether it's steel or oil," he continued. "We see it everywhere."

Indeed, the prices of gasoline and milk have shot past $4 a gallon, and Dow Chemical has announced twice in the past month that it's raising prices to offset soaring commodity costs.

Yet Bernanke's Fed signaled Wednesday that, after nine months of interest rate cuts and expansive lending to the financial sector, it isn't eager to reverse course and push rates higher to try to tamp down rising prices.

Why? Because the Fed remains skeptical that high commodity prices will ripple through the economy, leading to broad price hikes and big wage increases.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/25/news/newsmakers/buffett_bernanke.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008062608

In order to make money in the current environment means that one knows the 'real' numbers and I've no
confidence that Bernake hasn't drunk his own kool-ade.

Well, that and Buffett is a better singer. ;)

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080630/bs_nm/usa_paulson_dc

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said on Monday he believes in a strong U.S. dollar and that U.S officials were working to resolve the country's economic problems, including regulatory mistakes that led to excesses in the mortgage and banking sectors.

"I would agree that a strong dollar is a good thing and I believe it is in our nation's interest," Paulson said in a taped radio interview with Ekho Moskvy radio station.

"Every economy is going to have some ups and downs and we are going through a tough period in the United States right now," Paulson said, adding that U.S. long-term economic prospects were solid and will be ultimately reflected in the dollar's value.

Paulson said U.S. policies such as an economic stimulus program to provide U.S. consumers with tax rebates and moves to prevent home foreclosures would enhance confidence in the U.S. economy and efforts to address capital markets turmoil.

"All of these things ultimately will increase confidence in the U.S. economy and will reinforce our policies for a strong dollar," said Paulson. He said high prices for oil were a big burden for the world economy.

"The price of oil right now is creating a big burden on the world economy," Paulson said.

...more...

this nutfluck is a riot a minute! - worrying his beautiful mind about the "world economy"

If somehow, magically, the dollar could regain its value at the beginning on this cursed administration - does he believe that we can all go back to La-La Land as though fundamental employment numbers, debt ratios and inflation are meaningless?

He's a professional liar.

:party:

he's drinking... make it a double..

has unca dicky been reading bedtime fairy tales to paulson too?

:spray:

Wait! Wait! Slow down on the word coinage! :lol:

I'm laughing too much to write them down... So far today I've gotten;

Bubblevision: Any Corporate Media TeeVee show or network dedicated to Financial News.

Nutfluck: I have no idea, but, It doesn't look good for whomever it's invoked upon. Care to define UIA?

n: nut - fluk <from the English nut and a combination of a chicken noise and a *ahem* bendover mechanism>

best described as someone who comes out and screeches proscribed monologues on cue - particularly when those who are pulling the marionette strings become especially afraid of any other background noises

:hi:

(edited for redundancy)

Carly Fiorina knows her bugs.

(Reuters) - Merrill Lynch & Co Inc will be forced to raise equity in the third quarter and may sell 20 percent of its holdings in Bloomberg for $1 billion, Ladenburg Thalmann analyst Richard Bove said.

This would bring in cash, allow the company to value the remaining position in Bloomberg at $4 billion and solve the near-term capital issue, the analysts said in a note.

....

He expects the world's largest brokerage to post a 2008 loss of $1.64 a share, compared with his prior view of a profit of $1.37 a share. He cut his 2009 profit estimate for the company to $3.27 a share from $3.68.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKBNG28040220080630

NEW YORK/BANGALORE (Reuters) - Merrill Lynch & Co will likely write down $5.4 billion of securities in the second quarter, mainly due to its exposure to bond insurers, an analyst at Lehman Brothers wrote on Friday.

The quarterly write-down estimate, one of the highest yet for Merrill Lynch, helped sink the company's shares as much as 2.8 percent and highlighted concerns the broker may need to raise capital.

Lehman analyst Roger Freeman raised his write-down view by $3 billion for Merrill, making his estimate the highest among Wall Street analysts. Analysts to date have expected write-downs to range from $3.5 billion to $4.2 billion.

Freeman looked at how recent rating agency downgrades of bond insurers would affect Merrill Lynch, which offloaded some of its risk on bond insurers. With the bond insurers seen as weaker, their protection is not worth as much to Merrill.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUKBNG19253620080628

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080630/bs_nm/citigroup_dc

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Citigroup (C.N) is planning to change its bonus system for senior managers to encourage different parts of the vast company to cooperate and help one another win business, a person familiar with the matter told Reuters.

The change could be difficult to execute, because measuring cooperation can be difficult, experts said. But giving managers incentives to work together fits in with Chief Executive Vikram Pandit's broader strategy of turning around Citigroup by breaking down the divisions between different parts of the bank, instead of breaking apart the financial conglomerate.

Citigroup, which has posted more than $15 billion of losses in the last two quarters, has underperformed its banking peers for years. In the last three quarters, it has posted more than $40 billion of write-downs and credit losses from repackaged subprime mortgage debt and other underperforming assets.

If Citi's senior managers have more of their compensation tied to the performance of other parts of the bank, they may do a better job of risk management in the future, said David Hendler, an analyst at CreditSights in New York.

"It should create more sensible risk taking. People will give more thought to the impact of their actions not just on their group, but on the whole company," Hendler said.

Citi is laying off employees as it tries to cut costs. The bank has said it is cutting about 6,500 jobs in its investment bank, for example.

...more...

cows out - barn door broken - money all gone

In yet another example of synchronicity, Jim Hamilton provides a chart from Peter Hooper that illustrates why the housing market is in the doldrums: securitized credit has all but vanished. This topic came up in the previous post as a explanation of why the real estate market is coming to look like a war zone.



The collapse of private sector mortgage securitization hasn't gotten the attention it deserves. To put it in crude terms, securitization became central to how we finance housing in America. Banks held only a small portion of the loans they originated; the rest were sold. As we have discussed elsewhere, securitization depends on credit enhancement. Paul Jackson reported early this year that the revival of securitization depended on having support of some form:

While the monoline business may or may not be less important in the municipal bond markets due to the unbelievably low incidence of defaults, the guaranty business is actually far more important to the MBS business than most have given attention to thus far — precisely because defaults can and do happen.

For secondary mortgage market participants, resolving this crisis isn’t just a piece of the puzzle; it might be the puzzle. At the American Securitization Conference in Las Vegas last week, many investment bankers suggested on panels and in hallways that the bond insurer mess is the single largest issue keeping the private-party market from having a chance at establishing any modicum of recovery going forward.

In fact, regulators do not expect securitization to return to anything like its former level. They expect far more bank originated assets to stay within the banking system, on their balance sheets. That in turn will require them to carry vastly more equity than they do now. It will take financial institutions some time and doing simply to secure enough equity to make up for losses and increase their capital levels to the new more conservative standards that are being implemented.

The impairment of lending capacity suggests that housing prices could overshoot their "fair" value in relationship to incomes. Expect more efforts to socialize the housing market to prevent this outcome


http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/06/death-of-securitized-mortgages.html

Most Asian markets slid further on Monday, as investors remained cautious after a recent string of weak finishes and before key economic data from the U.S. later in the week.

Japanese stocks continued their downbeat performance Monday, with the benchmark Nikkei 225 Average ending lower for the eighth straight session, as investors awaited the Bank of Japan's tankan business-sentiment survey on Tuesday. The headline big manufacturers' diffusion index is expected to worsen to 3 from 11 in the previous quarterly survey.

Masanaga Kono, a strategist at SG Asset Management in Tokyo, said stocks performed anemically because investors expected a weak survey and because the Japanese yen strengthened after Moody's Investors Service upgraded its rating on Japanese government bonds to Aa3 from A1. Moody's said it expects Japan to continue to make progress on its debt and be resilient against global economic turbulence.

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djhighlights/200806300528DOWJONESDJONLINE000124.htm

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/06/one-method-to-flush-out-oil-speculators.html


Daniel Dicker, a former oil trader writing at TheStreet.com, contends that there is a way to test the hypothesis that speculation is influencing oil prices (a view that Dicker supports). Exchanges could impost a "liquidiation only" requirement, which was last used to break the Hunt brothers' attempted corner of the silver market in the early 1980s (hat tip reader Michael).

Note that while we believe that oil prices will inevitably move higher as supplies become more scarce, we have trouble believing a 50% price appreciation in five months is solely the result of fundamental factors. Reader Juan provided this quote from presentation by Frank Veneroso last year to the World Bank:


ne may ask, is it a bubble? Two years ago the noted money manager Jeremy Grantham posed this question in an interesting way. He presented a chart of the real inflation adjusted oil price going back to 1875.

He then noted: “Over the years we have asked over 2000 professionals for an exception to our claim that every asset class move of 2 sigmas away from trend had broken, and not one of the 2000 has ever offered an exception! This should be scarier than the fact that GMO has tried so hard to find one and failed. But we always have said that intellectually you can imagine a paradigm shift in an asset class price, even if we have been unable to document one yet in history. ...

However, one must note that some of these two sigma moves took a while to revert. Juan reports that a two sigma move of oil in the late 1990s did not fully correct (it saw only a one sigma fall). But the general premise is worth noting.

Dicker has mixed feelings about this idea but believes it is likely to be implemented.

From TheStreet.com($):

I've been a strong advocate for the position that the price of oil, while under fundamental upward pressure, contains an enormous speculation premium...I've always argued that the speculation in the market has not been manipulative but just a rush to improve gains in commodities...

The futures markets, however, were designed as simple price discovery mechanisms...Because of this, the rush to invest in oil and other commodities has had a geometric effect in price that you would not witness with other asset classes...

Unfortunately, some problems do not lend themselves to simple solutions..Two instruments are called upon to rein in excessive speculation: position limits and margins. Let me add two more that will surely be called upon soon: a ban on pension and indexed investment in commodities. Let's take all four and describe why they'll be less than useless.

Margin increases will have a very limited effect on the commodity markets, because the leverage on them is so high to begin with. ...Position limit tracking would be practically impossible and even less useful; those who wanted to skirt them could easily...avoid all invented limitations on positions....

More interesting is the idea of limiting pension and indexed investment in oil. But here too, the managers of those funds would be easily able to access the over-the-counter markets domestically...

You see, all the solutions that I have heard proposed require that you define the motive of the participant -- that you somehow figure out which contract of oil is initiated as a true hedge or as a speculative investment, and in this, even the participants themselves would be hard-pressed to know.

That is the environment we have created. Everyone's a trader -- very little in the futures markets is "purely" hedge or "purely" speculation anymore...

In one instance, however, the speculation premium was "successfully" tested - in the silver markets in 1980 when the Hunt brothers attempted to corner the market. As silver approached $50 an ounce in January 1980, the commercial participants asked for relief from the enormous margin calls from ever-rising prices. The CFTC and the Comex (the predecessor to the Nymex) responded effectively by imposing "liquidation-only" trading -- traders were allowed only to close existing positions and not permitted to initiate new positions.

This forced purely speculative positions to be closed rapidly, as they could no longer be "rolled" into future months at expiration. This caused the price of silver to drop by $12 the day after it was imposed, a decrease of over 20%! Over the course of the next three months, as contract months expired, the price dropped over 50%.

While I do not advocate such a move,...I believe that in an election year this will inevitably be suggested and implemented. The effects would be astonishing and immediate. Energy funds would be buried, and commodity-biased portfolios hurt badly...

One thing is for sure: A "liquidation-only" market would settle finally and for all time the argument about speculation premium in the oil markets

With an answer to this - I could love the idea.

so everybody will take a hit, just like they did with Securitized Mortgages.

The demand factor in this article is suspect. There weren't emerging 3rd world countries clamoring for silver to advance their building and transportation infrastructure.

The only way to break the oil spiral is to break demand, which means USE LESS, WAY WAY LESS.
Or we could do as the Wall Street Journal suggests, and DRILL EVERYWHERE NOW! which would create an "expectation" of future supply, breaking the futures market price spiral, which is just patent bullshit.

Yup, no exceptions.

Thanks, Demeter.

It's great to have contact with the electronic world again. I don't think I could stand to go back to pre-internet, pre-blogging days, and I'm sure I'm not the only one.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/24/news/economy/tully_housing.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008062509

...the foundation of the housing revival that comes in four steps.


What Mme. Fairy forgot to mention:

1. Banks are unwilling to lend under the standards that made home ownership so easy in the past.

2. There are less funds available for home loans.

3. Current owners are, on average, unable to recoup enough money from a sale to "move up" since property values have fallen precipitously, on average, around the nation.

4. If someone bought at the height of the boom, why would they sell if there would be no profit? To sell either at break-even or at a loss leaves money for little else, especially buying a house.

Can you think of any other reasons why this is just a bunch of fluff?

Sounds like t was written by somebody wh just finished their high school course in "General Business".

Something that's been nagging at me since last Thursday when you pointed out the 32,600 ongoing foreclosures in
one city alone...

First off, the short sightedness of the financial industry never fails to amaze me... That and how -BAD- they are
at math and mathematical concepts. I'll be the first to admit I'm no wiz at math, but, come on! If I can see it
they should be all over it.

The set up to this whole housing fiasco consisted of what the math longhairs like to call a "sorting process".
This sorting process selected 32,600 (I'll call them 'families' because it's homes we're talking about) who had
the desire and some nominal ability to purchase some real estate. Excluding, of course, some small percentage of
speculators. This was a very efficient sorting process due to the fact it was backed up by a huge media push and
incentives of every kind imaginable. Now, those people are being foreclosed on and thanks to the newer draconian
bankruptcy laws they have effectively been removed from the housing market for the foreseeable future. (We're talking
10 years here folks)

So, basically there is no housing market left. They've all been sorted out. After this rush to foreclosure by the
financial smart kids who's left to buy these houses they're holding? Is the plan to rent them back to these masses?
Don't you have to do a credit check to qualify to rent?

Just so I'm clear to these financial wizards... Your plan requires #1 -NEW- people (Not from this sorted set)
#2 People with jobs or -INCOME- which grows over time. (I guess the wizards missed the fact jobs are reduced and
wages are stagnant.) #3 -NEW- People who's -JOBS- are -NEAR- this real estate you're in such a hurry to grab back
(Thanks to energy costs and the lack of alternatives.)

They've killed the Market and now they are seeing rainbows just over the next hill. It isn't going to happen.
Not any time soon and in some areas... NOT.EVER! Oh, yeah... and that NOT.EVER also goes toward that fictionalized
20% return you financial types have come to think you're -entitled- to.

:spits:

Nooooo!!!! Not Goose!!! Now where will they get golden eggses from?

I mean it really doesn't matter that the largest concentration of people all belonging to a single generation are about to start *ahem* shuffling off their mortal coil and that there are many, many more houses than we need even before they start.....ummmm....pining for the fjords...., right?


Wait 10 years when most of the Boomers will start moving into retirement villages or very small apartments. They will be giving houses away.....

Might be able to afford it, then.

Read my reply to this same post.

:lol:

Which were Pre-Depression era mansions which were carved up into quads.

They all have the same floor plan. Top floor two "Apartments", bottom floor two "Apartments".

This is when I was growing up visiting relatives. Many of them lived in one of those apartments.

Over the last 10 or 15 years many of these buildings (which weren't condemned) had been opened up into single
residences again... Has me wondering how many of these modern repo-queens will meet the fate of being
'quadded'. Since building standards aren't what they used to be, I wouldn't think many of them are up
to it.

Oh, and you may wonder why '4' was the magic number? It's because it took 4 people paying rent to make
the payments on these behemoths just to keep them from going into foreclosure. Because rents had fallen
along with everything else.

De ja vou!

Taiwan announces stock market stimulus package
06.29.08, 9:13 PM ET -- Thomson Financial News
http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2008/06/29/afx5165756.html

TAIPEI (XFN-ASIA) - The Executive Yuan, or cabinet, announced over the weekend a package to stimulate the ailing stock market after a 3.37 pct slump on Friday and a cumulative retreat of more than 1,700 points on the index since the inauguration of president Ma Ying-jeou on May 20.

Four major government funds have been encouraged to aggressively buy local stocks for long-term holding, according to a news release from Government Information Office (GIO).

--snip--

Other measures reported by the GIO include a call for insurance companies, which currently have funds of around 8 trln twd, to invest in the stock market and domestic infrastructure projects.

The government is also considering using land from state-owned Bank of Taiwan to establish a property development firm.

In the eight-point package, the government also encouraged the insurance sector to buy into exchange-traded funds targeting indices.

08:00 ET
S&P futures vs fair value: -3.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -13.5.

Stock futures indicate a downward open to Monday's trading. Anheuser-Busch (BUD), which has become the target of InBev, disclosed it is trimming its workforce by 10% to 15%.

http://www.dailyreckoning.com/Writers/MogamboGuru.html


“The series nearest to real-world conditions is, not surprisingly, the highest: U-6, which includes part-timers looking for full-time employment as well as other members of the ‘marginally attached,’ a new catchall meaning those not looking for a job but who say they want one”, and which is running at a frightening 9% unemployment.

Well, admittedly, this is not new, but the interesting part that IS new is when he writes, “Yet this does not even include the Americans who (as Austan Goolsbee puts it) have been ‘bought off the unemployment rolls’ by government programs such as Social Security disability, whose recipients are classified as outside the labor force.”

That’s right! There are lots and lots of people who no longer have to work because the government supports them! Too bad he doesn’t give an estimate of how many these are!

But the new unemployment numbers came out, and right off the bat I see that the Civil Labor Force went up by 173,000 and the number of Employed went up by 360,000, but Non-Farm Payrolls went down by 20,000 and Goods Producing Payrolls went down by 110,000! Huh?

Of course, nobody is surprised that government employment went up by 9,000 employees to 22,385,000, which is up 224,000 over the last year.

In fact, there are now more people on Government Payrolls (22,385,000) than Goods Producing payrolls (21,618,000)! Hahaha! We are so freaking doomed! What makes it So Damned Funny (SDF) is that a conceited, self-absorbed nation like America, that boasts how smart we are, cannot possibly realize the utter, utter stupidity of this! Hahaha! And yet, here it is! Dare I repeat myself that we are freaking doomed? Sure! We’re freaking doomed! Hahaha!

Agora Financial’s 5- Minute Forecast ignores my jocular outbreak and somberly reports that “The U.S. economy shed jobs for the fourth-straight month in April” which they say is important because “in post-Great Depression history, a four-month losing streak has always preceded a recession.” Yikes!

...Maybe this “recession” thing is why the Labor Department reported that the U.S. lost another 20,000 jobs in April. In fact, the economy has shed 260,000 jobs since New Year’s Day!

I admire the way that John Williams restrains himself from busting out laughing as he says in his review of the government’s Payroll Survey that the “Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported a seasonally-adjusted jobs loss of 20,000 (loss of 28,000 net of revisions) +/- 129,000 for April 2008.” Hahahaha! Plus or minus more than 600% of the estimate? Hahahaha!

... I now turn to the Birth/Death Model, which plays such a prominent role in the government’s calculation of employment, and which showed a surprising gain of 267,000 jobs, which is the biggest increase in the last 12 months! Wow!

Before you go off shouting “The recession is over! They’re hiring again!”, the Model showed that 45,000 jobs were added in Construction, which makes me laugh my Big Fat Mogambo Butt (BFMB) off, but not laughing in merriment and joy, but a dark and scornful laugh of contempt, because this would be the most jobs created in the Construction category in the entire last freaking year, which makes me laugh even harder and with more scorn! And LOTS more contempt!

Oddly enough, 83,000 jobs were created in the April’s Birth/Death Model in the category of “Leisure and Hospitality”, which I figure is a pretty good estimate of the number of women who have recently become prostitutes because they are so desperate for money! Welcome to the hell of inflation!

Until next time,

The Mogambo Guru

www.fred.net/tds/bushfail.html

What else can one say? :shrug:

are priceless--think of the blood, sweat, and especially tears those graphs represent. I am stunned.

Whoever thought there would be graphic novels about economics?

Grapes of Wrath qualifies......

Trickle-down Economics and Ronald Reagan
Jim Blair
http://www.bigissueground.com/politics/blair-trickledownreagan.shtml

There has been a good deal of discussion centred on the question of whether anyone can point to a nation or empire that implemented 'Trickle Down Economics' and saw wealth actually trickle. In reviewing the issue I see two separate issues, and plan to treat them in the two parts of this essay.

PART I: What is meant (or at least what is commonly understood) by the term 'Trickle Down Economics'. And from that, what are examples that will be accepted by the parties to the discussion. In other words, let's see if we can agree about what we are talking about, and agree on specific examples.

PART II: How to evaluate a specific example, or what I call the use and misuse of statistics. The earlier exchange generated a "textbook example" of the misuse of statistics about the recent US. And what should be the basis of comparison? Should one country be compared to another? Or one time period in history to another.

----------

(excerpted from the diary on Dailykos - past the charts toward the end of the diary entry)

Here is part of an article I wrote recently on the FDIC's quarterly banking profile.

From the report:



....

So, the short version of the FDIC report is clear: the financial industry is still in serious trouble.

I want to caution, we're nowhere near meltdown mode. There is no panic, not should there be one. The sector is still working. However, instead of being able to get to fifth gear it can only get to second gear.

Simply put, this indicates the financial sector is still in a very bad place.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/6/30/8129/51735/67/544022

Bonddad referred to the FDIC 1st quarter 2008 report in his DailyKos diary. Here is the link...

http://www4.fdic.gov/qbp/2008mar/qbpall.html


It will be interesting to see a summary from FDIC for the 2nd quarter 2008

Work calls. It's going to be a short day. See you this afternoon.

I posted this first article in the Economy forum over the week-end.

http://www.carlyle.com/Media%20Room/News%20Archive/2008/item10417.html


Now, about that "remarkable team of proven executives who really understand what the problem is..."
I assume the reference is to the Carlyle Global Financial Services Group. I assume that includes these guys:

http://www.bizjournals.com/washington/stories/2007/09/10/daily5.html


Now read this...
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/7615749

theyrule.net

see who's sitting on who's board...

Ollie asked Stan.

:hi: antigop.

this will encourage businesses to create jobs, it would trickle down

so we deregulated. and Jobs were created in Mexico, Asia and India etc.

they told us we needed to cut corporate taxes - this will encourage jobs to be created and it would trickle down

so we gave the corporations tax cuts. and Jobs were created in Mexico, Asia and India etc.

they told us the wealthy needed a tax cut - this would encourage investments and in turn create jobs and it would trickle down

so we gave the wealthy a tax cut, and they invested. They invested in the housing mortage speculation until they balloon popped and many people lost their homes, now they are investing in oil and jobs are being created in Mexico, Asia and India etc.

It's all in the spin.

KANSAS CITY, Mo. - H&R Block Inc., the nation’s largest tax preparer, said Monday it swung to a fourth-quarter profit, helped by a record-setting tax season and the sale of its troubled mortgage arm.

The company offered earnings guidance for this year above what Wall Street is expecting, and its shares climbed on the news.

The Kansas City-based company earned $543.6 million, or $1.66 per share, in the three months ended April 30 compared with a loss of $85.6 million, or 26 cents per share, during the same period a year ago.

Excluding discontinued operations, including its Option One Mortgage Corp. subsidiary, the company said it earned $691.1 million, or $2.11 per share, compared with $591.2 million, or $1.81 per share, from continuing operations a year ago.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25455944/

11,392.60 46.09 0.41%
as of 10:59 AM
plenty of fairy dust in the air lol
:party: :party: :party:

glad to see you here at the SMW!

yeah, the H&R peeples made booquoo buckeroos off that stimulus thing - all those folks had to file those returns to get their giveaways!

come back real soon, now y'hear?

:hi:

SarahBelle is my wife. Sometimes we accidentally post on each other's accounts.

I think she's probably pretty sick of me ranting about the economy, so it's ironic that "she" posted in here.

:hi:

6/30/08 The folks at The Automatic Earth, have already posted some articles for today. Here is ilargi's comment at the beginning...

Ilargi: Over the weekend, we’ve seen multiple sources list the growing number of reports that warn of crashes and collapses to come. These reports, from RBS, Barclay’s, Fortis and others, are nothing new for those of you who follow The Automatic Earth on a daily basis. We have posted these and many other warnings for a long time.

Today, yet another grim picture is painted by the Bank for International Settlements, the central banks’ bankers. And more such warnings will be forthcoming. As we have always said, the economic downfall that is now starting to shape up for real, is inevitable. You can not "invent", out of the blue, trillion after trillion dollars of credit, and expect all of it to be accepted as any kind of "real" capital or money forever into the future.

It is not going to happen; it has to come down. The game is over. We already know the outcome. It’s just a matter of seeing HOW we will get to where we must go. What we’ve seen so far amounts to nothing more than a fart in a hurricane, if you will excuse my French. This entire economy of ours is faith-based, it's a religion whose priests dress assets in leveraged emperor's clothes.

The amount of deluded credit, still perceived by most people as having true value, that will soon vanish into the black hole of nothingness, from which not a penny will ever be seen again, is stunning in sheer quantity. The $3 trillion lost so far in the US housing market is but a tiny percentage of what will be going going gone.

The recent reports, and the increasing attention they are generating in the main media, are waking up increasing numbers of people these days. I’m afraid for most it will be too late to do much about their situations. The warnings now come from the players themselves, those who stand to lose their own shirts and shorts and socks and sweaters. That in itself is an extra warning, a giant blood red flag; it indicates that we are indeed fast approaching the edge of the cliff.

Note: I find it interesting to see people starting to understand that we are entering the mother of all deflations, and all the talk of inflation is not worth the paper it’s printed on. As US home prices plunge, homes become more expensive to buy. Think about that one.

There will be more articles added to today’s Debt Rattle as the day progresses.

http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2008/06/debt-rattle-june-30-2008-red-flags-and.html


Debt Rattle or Death Rattle?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_rattle

House of Cards

You thought the housing crisis was bad? You ain’t seen nothing yet.

By Danny Schechter

The Mess
28/06/08 "LA CityBeat" -- - Nationwide, two million homes sit vacant. Home sales are at a nine-year low. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers says that housing finance has not been this bad since the Depression. We still don’t know the full extent of the colossal subprime rip-off, but a recent Bank of America study did some guesstimating on the scale of the consequences of the “credit crisis.” The meltdown in the U.S. subprime real estate market, the bank said, had led to a global loss of $7.7 trillion dollars in stock market value since October.

snip

How bad is it?
• Financial analysts say that in the U.S. alone more than $850 billion in unpaid credit card balances is at stake and fast approaching $1 trillion, roughly the same amount as in the subprime market.

• CNN reports that worldwide, consumers have racked up more than $2.2 trillion in purchases and cash advances on major credit cards in just the last year.

• The unpaid debt portion of this is continuing to pile up, with U.S. consumers last year adding $68 billion against their credit lines, boosting credit card debt by 7.8 percent, the largest increase in seven years, just when the last recession was beginning.

Link: http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article20196.htm

I thought his "In Debt We Trust" was very good also.

Guess the date the DJIA rolls back to the level it was when the chimp took office-10,578.24. You can revise your dates up until Labour Day (the working man's holiday). IMPORTANT RULE CHANGE.....due to the frequent ant intense propping up of the market by TPTB, I WILL ACCEPT changes up to the point when the DJIA hits 10700 (got to have a cut off). Anyone can join, just give a date and your reasoning for that date. Multiple dates are ok within reason as we get closer to the cut off.


bahrbearian.....7/1
finnfan.....7/2
InkAddict.....7/3
Karenia.....7/8
UIA.....7/15
Alterfurz.....7/22
Roland99.....7/28
TOJ.....7/31 or the day after Bush or Israel invades Iran, some folks just have to have their floaties
Abelenkpe.....8/2
GhostDao.....8/5
Kineneb.....8/8
InkAddict....8/14
Talking Dog.....8/17
DWellwer.....8/19
Dr.Phool.....8/23
Nadinebrezezinski.....9/1
Radfringe.....9/1
MattSh.....9/2
Kineneb.....9/4 taking advantage of bet spreading
Prag.....9/5
MoJo Rabbit.....9/5
Kicksana.....9/8
MuleBoy(aka hiz honna da mayor).....9/11
Nickster.....9/12
Ozy.....9/19
AnneD.....9/19.....this is my earlier choice if the mata hits the fan
Demeter.....9/21
Ozone man.....9/23
Birthmark....10/10
Demreading DU.....10/16
TansyGold.....10/13
Roland99.....10/17, you have 2 dates, are they correct?
AnneD....10/24
Neshanic.....10/24
MsLeopard.....10/31
Wordpix.....11/3
Passingfair.....11/4
Ship wrack.....11/5
Wednesdays.....1/16/2009 your optimism is so refreshing.



Remember-you can change the dates as we learn more. If your date isn't on the list, e-mail me and I'll add it the next time I post. I erased expired dates so you can guess again. I post about one a week-more often the closer we get to the number. The winner get the praise and admiration of those on the Stock Watch Thread. We have also kicked in for a years worth of bragging rights and Karl Rove as you own pool boy if we can find Speedos to fit. There is still time to place your bets.....And please-no Reggie bars in the pool.

8/19
dweller

sigh.
dp

I have wild and crazy fingers today. I was so intent to get the right date. Thanks for catching that. If it were only horseshoes.

:toast:

I'm being optimist and this would coincide with getting home from vacation quite nicely. Thanks.

Midweek Maelstrom

(On edit - trying a new graphic to show TSE)

Highlights

Current:



30-day and 90-day vs.greenback:



30-day vs. Euro, Yen, UK Pound and Swiss Franc




Currency Comparison: http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Detailed analysis: http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD

Up-to-the-minute graph: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CD.Y%24%24&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=1

Historical values http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2008-05-19 Monday, May 19 1.00867 USD
2008-05-20 Tuesday, May 20 1.00725 USD
2008-05-21 Wednesday, May 21 1.01626 USD
2008-05-22 Thursday, May 22 1.0141 USD
2008-05-23 Friday, May 23 1.01184 USD
2008-05-26 Monday, May 26 1.01184 USD
2008-05-27 Tuesday, May 27 1.00685 USD
2008-05-28 Wednesday, May 28 1.00878 USD
2008-05-29 Thursday, May 29 1.01307 USD
2008-05-30 Friday, May 30 1.00624 USD
2008-06-02 Monday, June 2 0.998901 USD
2008-06-03 Tuesday, June 3 0.994926 USD
2008-06-04 Wednesday, June 4 0.985707 USD
2008-06-05 Thursday, June 5 0.980873 USD
2008-06-06 Friday, June 6 0.981643 USD
2008-06-09 Monday, June 9 0.978186 USD
2008-06-10 Tuesday, June 10 0.976467 USD
2008-06-11 Wednesday, June 11 0.983284 USD
2008-06-12 Thursday, June 12 0.977517 USD
2008-06-13 Friday, June 13 0.972573 USD
2008-06-16 Monday, June 16 0.979432 USD
2008-06-17 Tuesday, June 17 0.980296 USD
2008-06-18 Wednesday, June 18 0.98174 USD
2008-06-19 Thursday, June 19 0.987167 USD
2008-06-20 Friday, June 20 0.982994 USD
2008-06-23 Monday, June 23 0.984155 USD
2008-06-24 Tuesday, June 24 0.98668 USD
2008-06-25 Wednesday, June 25 0.986777 USD
2008-06-26 Thursday, June 26 0.988045 USD
2008-06-27 Friday, June 27 0.988142 USD


Current values

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

Market            Open   High    Low   Last  Change    Pct 
CD.Y$$ Cash     0.9895 0.9895 0.9817 0.9817 -0.0081 -0.82% 
CD.U08 Sep 2008 0.9873 0.9890 0.9783 0.9805 -0.0081 -0.82% 
CD.Z08 Dec 2008 0.9800 0.9800 0.9800 0.9879 +0.0011 +0.11% 
CD.H09 Mar 2009 0.9757 0.9757        0.9875 +0.0010 +0.10% 
CD.M09 Jun 2009 0.9880 0.9880 0.9880 0.9871 +0.0009 +0.09% 
CD.U09 Sep 2009 0.9865 0.9865 0.9865 0.9867 +0.0008 +0.08% 
 

 

Other combinations: (http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies)

Market          Open    High    Low     Last    Change   Pct 
AUSTRALIAN $/CANADIAN $ (CME:ACD)
ACD.U08 Sep 2008 0.9617 0.9617 0.9617 0.9617 +0.0023 +0.24% 
BRITISH POUND/US$ (SMALL) (NYBOT:MP) 
MP.U08.E Sep 2008 (E) 1.9566 1.9566 1.9562 1.9799 +0.0059 +0.30% 
EURO/BRITISH POUND (NYBOT:GB)
GB.U08.E Sep 2008 (E) 0.79440 0.79440 0.79435 0.79320 -0.00140 -0.18%    
EURO/JAPANESE YEN (NYBOT:EJ)
EJ.U08.E Sep 2008 (E) 164.950 165.740 164.950 165.740 -0.385 -0.23%    
EURO/US$ (SMALL) (NYBOT:EO)
EO.U08.E Sep 2008 (E) 1.54115 1.54115 1.54115 1.57035 +0.00190 +0.12%    

Blather (from http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

The September Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends last week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends last week's rally, the 62% retracement level of the May-June decline crossing at 99.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.21 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 99.42. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level crossing at 99.80. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 98.53. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.21.


Analysis

Ok, so the CBC's deciding to be confusing today. First we've got...

http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2008/06/27/canada-report.html

Canada is in the middle of the pack of the 17 wealthiest countries in terms of social and economic rankings, the Conference Board of Canada reported Monday.

It gave Canada four Bs — for economy, education, health and the social environment — but only a C on environment and a D on innovation. The board gives a B to countries in the second quartile, a C in the third and a D in the bottom.

...

The lack of innovation has hurt economic performance, where slower productivity and other factors have opened the gap between U.S. and Canadian individual purchasing power to $6,400 US now from $3,200 in 1985.

But we've also got....

http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2008/06/30/economy-april.html

Canada's gross domestic product rebounded in April after shrinking in February and March, Statistics Canada reported Monday.

Manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade and the financial sector grew, offsetting drops in construction, and the oil and gas industry.

In the months previously, however..

http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2008/05/30/economyslip.html

The Canadian economy shrank at an annualized rate of 0.3 per cent over the first three months of the year, the first such contraction since the second quarter of 2003, Statistics Canada said Friday.

Cutbacks in manufacturing got much of the blame, as a big drawdown in motor-vehicle inventories led to lower auto manufacturing and exports. Bad weather also contributed to the weak first-quarter reading.

It's worth looking at the comments section.

Just a few short months ago we were gloating about how the US was screwed but thanks to our prudent management we would be alright. Now the truth is revealed: the US Economy continues to grow while Canada's is shrinking.

Stephen Harper & Jim Flaherty have achieved what most economists might have thought impossible - a level of oversight incompetence even worse than that of George W Bush.

Almost everything they've done was against the advice of the economic experts - putting short-term political pandering ahead of the wider national interest at every turn.


...at which point a Conservative vs. Liberal catfight broke out.

3:08
Dow 11,397.81 Up 51.30 (0.45%)
Nasdaq 2,309.39 Down 6.24 (0.27%)
S&P 500 1,285.56 Up 7.18 (0.56%)
10-Yr Bond 3.969% Down 0.021
NYSE Volume 3,138,872,250
Nasdaq Volume 1,466,573,750

3:00 pm : Stocks are largely unchanged from previous levels as the major indices move into the final hour of trading.

The Dow Jones Utility Average is performing well. It is currently up nearly 2.7% this session, more than any of the other Dow Jones Averages or the major indices. Utilities often benefit when investors seek companies that produce steady, predictible earnings and cash flow that is often paid out in a healthy dividend yield.

Crude closed its session on the Nymex just $0.12 higher, finishing at $140.33 per barrel.DJ30 +37.05 NASDAQ -10.69 SP500 +5.06 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1118/1.43 bln/1744 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1401/929 mln/1715

2:30 pm : After touching an afternoon low the stock market is gaining ground again. The advance has coincided with another pullback in oil prices.

Despite the swings in oil prices, the Dow Jones Transportation Average has held steady, sporting solid gains. It is currently trading more than 1.2% higher. FedEx (FDX 78.87, +1.62) is the relateive leader among other components in the index.DJ30 +55.21 NASDAQ -5.88 SP500 +7.31 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1671/1185/1.30 bln NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1481/856 mln/1642

Dow 11,398.13 Up 51.62 (0.45%)
Nasdaq 2,308.32 Down 7.31 (0.32%)
S&P 500 1,286.15 Up 7.77 (0.61%)
10-Yr Bond 3.979% Down 0.011
NYSE Volume 3,535,765,500
Nasdaq Volume 1,647,116,750

3:30 pm : The stock market is trending upward as the session nears its end. The Nasdaq, however, has succumbed to renewed selling pressure after working its way upward toward the unchanged mark. The Nasdaq has consistently underperformed its counterparts this session.

Banking components within the Nasdaq are down 1.5%, collectively, and weighing on its performance. Within the group, Fifth Third (FITB 10.16, -0.07) has been a laggard of late.DJ30 +50.97 NASDAQ -8.02 SP500 +8.00 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1095/1.60 bln/1795 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1417/1.04 bln/1712

In 15 minutes the markets gave up all of their gains.

guess that kick in the punch wasn't caffeine or alcohol after all

It shall be done.

In the last 15 minutes of trading, the Dow lost every bit of today's gain, turned into negative territory, and then in the last few seconds the numbers reversed again and become just barely positive.

If you need me, I'll be in the corner wearing my tinfoil hat.

Dow +3.50
NASDAQ -22.65
S&P +1.62

Bear level: 20% down from the record high

Dow closing high on Oct 9, 2007: 14,164.53

20% off would be: 11,331.62


Today's close: 11,350.01

Ozy upthread noticed the light volume. I believe that the largest investors, knowing that the future's looking pretty dire, but also knowing that no major news/reports were due out today, waited on the sidelines hoping for a sucker rally. They waited until the last possible second and then sold so that they could wring at least a small profit out of the day and cut their loses for June. Then, somebody else (the PPT?) saw what was happening and wanted to ensure that the headline tonight would be "The Dow finally closed up today, reversing its latest trend" rather than "The Dow collapsed into to red again today."

Can I have Dan Ackroyd's job now?

:applause:

Since their high point last October, the Dow gave up 19.87 percent; the S&P dropped 18.22 percent; and the Nasdaq is down 19.80 percent. A 20 percent drop from a market peak is considered the start of a bear market — although many analysts say Wall Street already has a bear market mentality.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080630/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/wall_street

Dow 11,350.01 Up 3.50 (0.03%)
Nasdaq 2,292.98 Down 22.65 (0.98%)
S&P 500 1,280.00 Up 1.62 (0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 3.979% Down 0.011
NYSE Volume 5,064,972,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,115,474,500

4:20 pm : A lack of key economic data and market-moving earnings reports left investors to focus on energy prices and the turbulent financial sector during Monday’s action. In the end, financials (-2.1%) closed at their worst level of the session and the broader market closed with a modest gain.

Oil futures climbed to a new record high of $143.67 per barrel in the early going. The surge in oil prices induced selling among stocks, but buyers returned to defensive plays in an effort to protect against a bear market. Before stocks bounced back into positive ground, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 had fallen almost 20% from their record highs, which were reached last October.

Utilities (+2.3%) and telecom (+3.2%) were the session's best performing sectors. Their stable businesses and steady earnings streams, considered defensive characteristics, attracted buyers amid continued concern related to financial stocks.

Particular weakness was exhibited by its regional banks whose weakness undermined the Nasdaq, which was a consistent underperformer during the session. The Nasdaq closed 1.0% lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished near the unchanged mark and the S&P 500 closed with a gain of just 0.1%.DJ30 +3.50 NASDAQ -22.65 NQ100 -1.0% R2K -1.2% SP400 -0.5% SP500 +1.62 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 994/2.07 bln/1902 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1269/1.61 bln/1898

Mon Jun 30, 2008 4:05pm EDT

* Dollar rebounds versus euro as second quarter ends

* Record high euro-zone inflation cements rate hike views

* Focus on ECB meeting, U.S. payrolls report on Thursday (Recasts, updates prices)

NEW YORK, June 30 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar gained against the euro on Monday as traders bought back the U.S. currency as the second quarter ends, though losses in the euro were limited ahead of an expected rate hike by the ECB this week.

The euro has benefited recently from widespread expectations that the European Central Bank will raise rates to 4.25 percent on Thursday to fight inflation.

"As the quarter comes to an end, we are seeing some investors adjusting their portfolios, buying back some dollars and selling euros," said Greg Salvaggio, a currency trader at Tempus Consulting in Washington. "But selling in the euro may stall ahead of the ECB meeting. They are going to raise rates and possibly indicate further hikes."

...

Euro-zone consumer prices jumped to a record high 4.0 percent in June, double the ECB's 2 percent target, according to data released on Monday. <-- should read, rate of inflation in consumer prices...

Analysts said the data would further harden the ECB's resolve to hike interest rates when it meets this week, with some seeing risks increasing for a post-July tightening as well.

...

The closely watched U.S. employment report is expected a day earlier than usual on Thursday, along with the ECB meeting. On Friday U.S. markets will be closed for the Independence Day holiday.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINN3043592320080630?rpc=44&pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0&sp=true

Mon Jun 30, 2008 2:00am EDT

LONDON, June 29 (Reuters) - Stress levels in financial markets are likely to intensify this week as worsening inflation looks set to trigger the first interest rate hike in G7 economies since the credit crisis blew up last August.

Thursday may well prove to be an explosive day as investors will receive the latest monthly U.S. employment report within an hour of an expected rate rise by the European Central Bank.

Oil's surge above $141 a barrel last week has again fanned inflation fears in both developed and emerging markets, pushing many central banks into considering interest rate rises even though growth is being sapped by the year-long credit turmoil.

And that's damaging for a lot of asset classes. World stocks fell to three-month lows late last week as investors assess the likely damage to corporate profits from higher borrowing costs, soaring input prices and a consumer retrenchment.

...

Almost half way through the year, world stocks, measured by MSCI .MIWD00000PUS, have lost around 12 percent. The dollar is down more than 5 percent against a basket of major currencies .DXY.

Policymakers in major economies battling inflation are trapped in a vicious circle. An interest rate hike -- or more -- in the euro zone may boost the euro further and the resulting dollar weakness risks aggravating the inflationary pulse by further boosting oil and commodity prices.

"In past years... U.S. talk of a `strong dollar being in the interest of the U.S.' was just implausible lip service," said Hans Redeker, head of FX strategy at BNP Paribas.

"Now a strong dollar makes perfect sense as it would help to restrain both U.S. import prices and domestic price expectations," he said. "In contrast, a weak dollar has become a major threat as it would lead to a further increase of inflation expectations which would not bode well for asset prices."

With inflation stubbornly above the ECB's ceiling of 2 percent, interest rate futures markets are almost fully pricing in another rate rise by the end of December. Two more hikes would bring the euro zone cost of borrowing to 4.5 percent.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINL2857856320080630?rpc=44&sp=true

...

With the killing of Kennedy, the dogs of war were unleashed. After America ’s disastrous war in Vietnam ended in 1975, President Jimmy Carter tried to introduce a policy of civility and restraint in domestic and world political affairs, but he was swept away in the election of 1980 by the “Reagan Revolution,” whose catastrophic legacy we see today.


President Ronald Reagan set in motion the current mudslide of worldwide cataclysms through his huge military build-up, the “Reagan doctrine” of proxy warfare in third-world countries, the pathologically paranoid Strategic Defense Initiative—“Star Wars”—program, and the deregulation of the financial industry. Since our economy is the largest in the world, such action was bound to affect every other nation in making them subservient to the U.S. bankers and financiers who organized themselves in such institutions as David Rockefeller’s Trilateral Commission.


Bill Clinton, elected in 1992, did little to stem the tide of barbarism. He completed the destruction of the U.S. as an industrial democracy by signing the legislation for NAFTA and opening the floodgates to foreign control of U.S. business. He also completed the deregulation of the financial industry by repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act which had prohibited the merger of investment and deposit banks. But Clinton still was attacked by the right-wing who wanted him to unleash a new military assault against Iraq .


When George W. Bush became president in 2000, the grand strategy of Middle East occupation was facilitated by the skillful exploitation of the 9/11 attacks as the excuse for military mobilization to be financed by the housing bubble and the forced sale of U.S. Treasury debt to foreign investors. The historic jack-up of petroleum prices—including the most recent ones that have brought gas at-the-pump in the U.S. to $4 a gallon—are clearly a de facto tax on the American public to pay for these wars.


It has become obvious in recent months—even as Bush et. al. plot a possible attack on Iran before the end of his presidency—that the rest of the world is heartily sick of U.S. arrogance. Even our allies in NATO have refused to allow us to build a defensive missile shield virtually to the borders of Russia .


And there are indications that the European financial community—headed by the Bank of International Settlements—may force the Federal Reserve to start raising interest rates again to stem inflation, even if this drives the U.S. domestic population into an economic depression. Recent signs from the Council on Foreign Relations are that the U.S. will accept that the dollar can no longer reign supreme as the world’s sole reserve currency and that it must give way to the Euro and the Chinese Yuan in sharing this role. Thus the U.S. political leadership seems to have begun to realize that we will no longer be allowed to posture as the unchallenged bully of the world.


What we may be seeing—even as the U.S. military has extended its reach to the insertion of uniformed personnel in 135 nations—is the end of the Anglo-American Empire and the birth of a multi-polar world. It appears that the more level-headed among the U.S. and worldwide elite are tilting toward Barack Obama as the best choice to manage America ’s inevitable decline.


This decline is by no means a bad thing. Through graceful acceptance, America may even have a chance someday to regain its soul. A good place to start would be to establish a National Historical Truth Commission to investigate such historical puzzles as the real causes of U.S. entrance into the wars of the past century; assassinations—such as JFK, Senator Paul Wellstone, and JFK, Jr.; and 9/11. Another worthwhile proposal is for a tribunal on “International and Domestic Crimes Committed by High U.S. Government Officials,” which will be discussed at a national conference planned for Andover , Mass. , in September.

/... http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=9473

I am no supporter of empire. Empires tend to forsake the quality of self for appearances, throwing too many resources into projections of power rather than tend to the needs of its entire population. To see this aspect of America cast away is fine with me.

Should we need to use our fists again: Queensberry rules should apply.