STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday August 19

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday August 19, 2008

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 155
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2767 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2492 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2783
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES &
MARKETS INDICATORS>
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.
$1 USD = EUR 1.06678
$1 USD = JPY 116.6200

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 18, 2008

Dow... 11,479.39 -180.51 (-1.55%)
Nasdaq... 2,416.98 -35.54 (-1.45%)
S&P 500... 1,278.60 -19.60 (-1.51%)
Gold future... 805.70 +13.60 (+1.69%)
30-Year Bond 4.44% -0.03 (-0.72%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.82% -0.04 (-0.93%)






GOLD,EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact actionpost@legitgov.org

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

The Great Oil Bubble?
Supply and geopolitical issues will not go away in global recession
BY TONY ALLISON

The markets are rejoicing as the “great oil bubble” loses air and rapidly heads back to its proper double-digit price. The rejoicing may be a bit premature as the underlying supply and demand fundamentals do not appear to support “proper” prices for oil.

Between 2004 and 2007, global oil consumption grew by 3.9%, driven by emerging giants China and India (40% of the world’s population) and other rapidly growing emerging economies. While consumption has exploded, production has not kept pace. Non-OPEC production growth has slowed well below historical averages. And the only country with significant spare production capacity is Saudi Arabia. Unfortunately, Saudi spare capacity is not independently verified, and the vast majority of their current production is from the giant Ghawar oil field, a dowager now 57 years old which still produces nearly 5 million barrels a day.

“Saudi Aramco is injecting a staggering 7 million barrels of sea water per day back into Ghawar, the world's largest oilfield, in order to prop up pressure. It accounts for 30% of Saudi oil reserves and up to 70% of daily output. Doubts grow about Saudi as Global Swing Producer," Aberdeen Press & Journal Energy

It is interesting to note that the above article appeared in April 2004. Time is not on the side of Saudi Arabian spare productive capacity.

...

Disturbing Findings

The historically conservative International Energy Agency (IEA) has issued some disturbing findings in its latest report. It notes that global production cannot keep up with demand, and the trend is getting worse. It predicts global oil depletion at 5.2% this year, versus 4% last year. Over 3.5 million barrels per day of new production will be needed each year just to hold global production steady. With Ghawar, the world’s largest and one of the oldest fields now producing less than 5 million barrels per day (approximately 6% of global daily production), where will this new production come from this year, and in every succeeding year? What if the global depletion rate is over 6% next year, equivalent to Ghawar? This is the crux of the issue. Finite supplies will never be able to meet infinite future demand.

...

Dollar Rally Pushing Down Commodity Prices

The dollar is enjoying a nice run after a long period of dreary performance. This is affecting all things priced in dollars, particularly commodities. The fundamentals for the dollar have not improved, only sentiment against other currencies such as the euro. While a dollar rally could last into the fall, it is very likely that it cannot be sustained without improved fundamentals. Look for reality to reenter the markets after the November elections. The alchemists at the Fed cannot create prosperity through the printing of more dollars, though they will surely try to stave off a severe recession in this manner.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

They will buy enough oil to grow their renewable energy and nuclear, and then wean off it. They will have mass transit electric trains, and biodeisel their trash for trucking and buses.

There are now probably no countries in the world that seek to emulate the US. Our economics, our politics, everything we do, is a good example of how NOT to be a functioning, viable nation.

I'll look it up later. Now, I know he was no Tim Russert, but, he did have some insights worth pondering.

Not sure if that was Vonnegut, actually.

08:30 Core PPI Jul
Briefing.com 0.2%
Consensus 0.2%
Prior 0.2%

08:30 PPI Jul
Briefing.com 0.6%
Consensus 0.6%
Prior 1.8%

08:30 Building Permits Jul
Briefing.com 975k
Consensus 959K
Prior 1091K

08:30 Housing Starts Jul
Briefing.com 975K
Consensus 960K
Prior 1066K

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

01. U.S. July housing completions fall to 25-year low
8:30 AM ET, Aug 19, 2008

02. U.S. July housing starts fall to 17-year low
8:30 AM ET, Aug 19, 2008

03. U.S. July building permits sink 17.7% to 937,000 pace
8:30 AM ET, Aug 19, 2008

04. U.S. housing starts down 29.6% in past year
8:30 AM ET, Aug 19, 2008

05. U.S. July single-family building permits off 5.2% to 584,000
8:30 AM ET, Aug 19, 2008

06. U.S. July housing starts fall 11% to 965,000 annual pace
8:30 AM ET, Aug 19, 2008

07. U.S. July single-family permits fall to 26-year low
8:30 AM ET, Aug 19, 2008

02. U.S. July energy PPI up 3.1%
8:31 AM ET, Aug 19, 2008

03. U.S. July food PPI up 0.3%
8:31 AM ET, Aug 19, 2008

04. U.S. PPI up 9.8% in past year
8:31 AM ET, Aug 19, 2008

05. U.S. July core PPI up 0.7% vs. 0.2% expected
8:31 AM ET, Aug 19, 2008

06. U.S. July PPI rises 1.2% vs. 0.3% expected
8:31 AM ET, Aug 19, 2008

"A moment on the PPI lips and a lifetime on the CPI hips."

Especially in a Shruggerteria as we have in modern times (I say modern, but, it still looks like the same Feudalism or
ye olde Company Town to me).

That's how it goes.

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia - Oil prices dropped below $112 a barrel Tuesday in Asia, extending an overnight decline as Tropical Storm Fay avoided oil-producing infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico.

Analysts also said oil pricing is likely to remain suppressed amid concerns that a global economic slowdown may further dampen world oil demand. But intermittent supply concerns due to the hurricane season and ongoing conflicts such as that between Russia and Georgia are likely to halt any sharp slide in pricing.

....

Late afternoon in Singapore, light, sweet crude for September delivery was down 97 cents at $111.90 barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The contract fell 90 cents Monday to settle at $112.87 a barrel after the threat of Tropical Storm Fay eased. That was the first time crude ended below $113 since May 1.

...

In other Nymex trading, heating oil futures fell 1.36 cents to $3.0712 a gallon, while gasoline prices lost 1.54 cents to $2.7998 a gallon. Natural gas futures fell 8.5 cents to $7.803 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

When the main pipeline that carries oil through Georgia was completed in 2005, it was hailed as a major success in the United States policy to diversify its energy supply. Not only did the pipeline transport oil produced in Central Asia, helping move the West away from its dependence on the Middle East, but it also accomplished another American goal: it bypassed Russia.

...

Now energy experts say that the hostilities between Russia and Georgia could threaten American plans to gain access to more of Central Asia’s energy resources at a time when booming demand in Asia and tight supplies helped push the price of oil to record highs.

...

The latest struggle over Caspian oil started in earnest in the 1990s under Bill Clinton, after the breakup of the Soviet Union. The building of the pipeline that passes through Georgia, the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan line, or BTC, remains one of the signature successes of the American strategy to put a wedge between Russia and the Central Asian countries that had been Soviet republics.

Attempts to get oil out of Kazakhstan through a non-Russia route failed. Most of the oil production from the giant field of Tengiz, for example, in which Chevron is the largest investor, now travels through a pipeline known as the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which runs along the northern Caspian coastline to the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk. And proposals for new oil and natural gas pipelines in the region have stalled, in part, because of Moscow’s opposition.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/14/world/europe/14oil.html?ref=todayspaper

WASHINGTON - Whether or not the government is actually on the verge of taking over mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, investor fears that a bailout is imminent could turn such a worst-case scenario into reality.

Amid renewed concern that shareholders will wind up with nothing if the government intervenes to bail out the troubled companies, shares in the mortgage finance giants tumbled Monday to the lowest levels in nearly two decades.

Fannie Mae's stock slid more than 22 percent, or $1.76, to $6.15 on Monday, while shares of Freddie Mac fell 25 percent, or $1.46, to $4.39.

...

Jennifer Zuccarelli, a Treasury spokeswoman, said the government has "no intention" of using its authority to invest in Fannie and Freddie and declined further comment.

Denials from government officials have not been soothing investors lately. "You don't pass that sort of legislation unless there's some sort of intent to use it," said Barry Ritholtz, chief executive of FusionIQ, an asset management and research firm in New York.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080819/ap_on_bi_ge/fannie_freddie_bailout

NEW YORK - Shares of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. edged lower Monday amid worries the company may face a fiscal third-quarter loss instead of a modest profit that many analysts had expected.

The nation's fourth-largest investment bank continues to struggle with writing down the value of mortgage-backed securities and other risky investments. Lehman could lose up to $1.8 billion, according to The Wall Street Journal. In June, Lehman unexpectedly reported a loss of $2.8 billion — the first quarterly loss since going public.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080819/ap_on_bi_ge/lehman_brothers_mover

According to reports in the New York Times and Wall Street Journal, Lehman is shopping its asset management business, which includes Neuberger Berman (purchased for $2.6 billion in 2003), its private client brokers, and Lehman Brothers Asset Management.

Now look at the valuation of the asset management business versus Lehman as a whole. From the New York Times:


Connect the dots. The stock market is saying that the value of current Lehman operations ex the asset management business is close to zero, or maybe even negative (which would hold if liabilities exceed the value of the remaining assets). Note that the Journal story puts a narrower value on the asset management operations, $8 to $10 billion.

...

This gives the impression that Lehman is price-shopping to get inputs as to whether it should sell all or part of the operations or not. The reason I doubt this interpretation is you don't circulate "detailed" information to buyers casually. First, the process of shopping a company is time consuming and rattles employees and often leads to defections (although in this case, with Lehman's stock at such lousy levels, the Neuberger principals are believed to be on board with this move). Second, the prospective buyers are all major clients. It would be ill advised to jerk them around.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/08/value-of-lehman-ex-asset-management.html

---

Just look at the partial client potential buyer list: Kohlberg, Kravis & Roberts, J. C. Flowers, the Blackstone Group, the Carlyle Group and Apollo Management

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The worst of the global financial crisis is yet to come and a large U.S. bank will fail in the next few months as the world's biggest economy hits further troubles, former IMF chief economist Kenneth Rogoff said on Tuesday.

...

"We're not just going to see mid-sized banks go under in the next few months, we're going to see a whopper, we're going to see a big one, one of the big investment banks or big banks," said Rogoff, who is an economics professor at Harvard University and was the International Monetary Fund's chief economist from 2001 to 2004.

...

"Probably Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac -- despite what U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson said -- these giant mortgage guarantee agencies are not going to exist in their present form in a few years."

Rogoff's comments come as investors dumped shares of the largest U.S. home funding companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on Monday after a newspaper report said government officials may have no choice but to effectively nationalize the U.S. housing finance titans.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080819/bs_nm/usa_banks_crisis_dc

How did Bush & Cheney overlook the FDIC?

Obviously, they NEVER IMAGINED that their policies would trash the economy. If there's one thing this Mal-Administration lacks, it's a good grasp of actions and reactions, truth and consequence, not to mention the need for give as well as take.

Don't you have any American USA! USA! sites instead?

I only know American!


( :lol: Did you get a Cheerios banner on the page? )

Which I'm assuming refers to the Large Fire-breathing Lizards they keep in the moats around their castles..... or something.

As they say: 1 culture separated by a common language.

Cholesterol level.

They may have some use for me yet.


or


Eeek! Maybe they know something I don't.

Oh, great... Now England knows too. How come I'm always the last to know these things?

are both owned by Mr. Rupert Murdoch.

Does he have an agenda? Of course he has an agenda: More power and riches for himself and his family. Nothing else.

Here is Paul Krugman's preliminary syllabus for Economics 553.

Alvin's School of Learning and Stuff #122 is kind of fussy about what they consider accredited 'learnifying'. (Their word, not mine)

Usually credit transfers boil down to who wrote the textbook and if it was bought from Neil Bush.

I'll have to check with the Registrar/Massage Therapy Professor and see.

:)

Oh, yeah... And unless the course includes numerous Jack Welch quotes my employer is unlikely to chip in.

And a minor in Deregulation, Shrugging, and Tooth Fairy Economic Dynamics.

Measures of M3 (no thanks to the Fed) have shown sharp contractions this year with a new shock recorded from May to July.



more at the link...

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/08/more-evidence-of-sharp-contraction-in.html

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 3:04pm BST 19/08/2008

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/08/19/cnusecon119.xml

I've noted this. Normally if I apply for a credit card I get a huge one approved - like a $20,000.00 limit or more. I recently applied for an amazon.com credit card and they approved $5,000.00 period. I cancelled this card at once.

I have zero debt btw.

Say hello to deflation, something America hasn't seen since the Great Depression. There was plenty to buy (according to my late mother) but no one had any money to buy anything with. She was fortunate and lived on a farm in Arizona during this time and didn't notice it too much.

Cash is indeed king. Stay away from something called the stock market - something I've been saying since oh one. :(

:kick:

Lots of houses with no one living in them too.

RPT-GLOBAL MARKETS-Asia stocks at 2-yr low on fresh credit fear
Tue Aug 19, 2008 2:40am EDT



* MSCI pan-Asia index at lowest since July 2006

* Japan's Nikkei, down 2.3 pct, leads region lower

* U.S. dollar rises to 7-month high as metals weaken (Updates prices, adds European outlook)

By Kevin Plumberg

HONG KONG, Aug 19 (Reuters) - Asian stocks fell to a two-year low on Tuesday, led by exporter shares, on fears the U.S. government will have to bail out the top mortgage finance companies, further destabilising the financial sector.

European stock markets .FTSE .GDAXI .FCHI were expected to open between 0.7 percent and 1.1 percent lower, according to financial bookmakers, as fallout from the credit crisis mounted.

Wall Street tumbled after an article in Barron's said a government bailout could wipe out existing holders of Fannie Mae (FNM.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and Freddie Mac (FRE.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) common stock with other asset holders also suffering losses.

The news seemingly put the bottom in the worst housing crisis since the Great Depression further out of reach, and confounded those expecting a U.S. recovery, at a time when the euro zone and Japanese economies are shrinking and could be lumbering toward recession. Continued...

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINSP2479220080819?rpc=44

TOKYO, Aug 19 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan delivered its bleakest assessment of the economy since the 1997/98 Asian financial crisis in a sign that a global slump sparked by the U.S. credit crunch may be spreading too quickly for Japan to avert recession.

Slowing global growth was hurting Japanese exports, the U.S. economy will remain sluggish this year and a decline in commodity prices from July's record peaks may not mean the end of an era of surging raw material costs, BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said.

The BOJ left interest rates unchanged at 0.5 percent in a unanimous decision on Tuesday. Shirakawa said its pessimistic assessment of the economy did not shake its belief in a recovery and signalled that the bank would keep its neutral policy stance.

The statement announcing the rate decision described the Japanese economy as "sluggish" - a term the BOJ last used in its assessment in May 1998, when capital was fleeing Asia after an asset-price bubble collapsed the previous year.

"While we did say that economic growth is sluggish, the possibility of Japan's economy worsening sharply is slim," Shirakawa told a news conference.

The scale of the worldwide slump triggered by a meltdown in U.S. mortgages last year is driving trading in global foreign exchange markets. The dollar has rallied to its highest in seven months against an index of major currencies on bets that Europe and Asia will suffer more than investors had previously expected.

"We're not surprised with the BOJ's wording that economic growth was sluggish," said Kyohei Morita, chief economist at Barclays Capital.

"What was more interesting was that it acknowledged that export growth was slowing. The bank has been saying all along that exports were in an upward trend, but now it has changed that view."

Some investors sold Japanese government bonds to lock in profits on the view that the BOJ's downgrade did not go far enough to signal the chance of a rate cut. <JP10YTN=JBTC>

...

The world's second-largest economy shrank in the second quarter as crumbling U.S. and European export markets hit factories, and consumers tightened belts to cope with high food and fuel costs.

Exports to Asian emerging markets weakened in June from a year earlier after sustaining growth in the face of a slump in U.S. and European demand.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINT26993420080819?rpc=44&pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0&sp=true

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 77.131 Change -0.022 (-0.03%)

Japanese Yen Forecast Ahead of BoJ Meeting

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Japanese_Yen_Forecast_Ahead_of_1219066341808.html

This week the Bank of Japan is widely expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged and we expect the Japanese yen to be particularly vulnerable against the U.S. dollar on interest rate differentials.

The Bank of Japan is widely expected to keep its key interest rate on hold at 0.5 percent. Last week, a government report showed that the Japanese economy shrank an annualized 2.4 percent in the second quarter and downside risks to growth are likely to take center stage when the BoJ holds its two day monetary policy meeting. Moreover, according to overnight index swaps, which measure interest rate expectations for the next twelve months, traders expect the Bank of Japan to keep rates unchanged in 2008/2009. On the other hand, the U.S. Federal Reserve could be pressured to increase rates faster than traders had previously expected since the U.S. dollar currently offers negative interest rates when adjusted by inflation. In fact, we expect the Fed to increase rates by almost 150 bps in the next 18 months in order to keep up with inflation.

...more...

Japan freezes rates, lowers economic outlook

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/japan-holds-key-interest-rate/story.aspx?guid=%7B8CC7ECEE%2D6EEF%2D4C30%2DBC71%2DAF3AAFE88529%7D&siteid=bnbh

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- The Bank of Japan voted unanimously to keep its main interest rate at 0.5% on Tuesday, as expected, while lowering its economic outlook in acknowledgement that the economy has deteriorated.

"Economic growth has been sluggish against the backdrop of high energy and materials prices and weaker growth in exports," the BOJ's policy board said in a statement on its website Tuesday after the conclusion of its two-day monthly policy meeting.

The language in its monthly report reflects a softening from July when the central bank noted that economic growth appeared to be "slowing further."
Still, the BOJ kept its outlook for an eventual pick up in economic activity.

"While growth will likely remain sluggish for the time being, it is expected to return gradually onto a moderate growth path as commodity prices level out and overseas economies move out of their deceleration phase," the BOJ said.

Gov. Masaaki Shirakawa told reporters at a news conference late in the afternoon that the economy had lost steam but was unlikely to spiral downwards.

"The possibility of a serious downtown in the near future is likely small," he said.

Following the policy rate announcement, the futures markets were pricing in no chance of a BOJ rate hike over the next year, a reading that was basically unchanged from Monday, according to market-implied interest rate calculations by Credit Suisse.

...more...

By Ellis Mnyandu

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stock index futures fell on Tuesday as fears that the U.S. housing slump will spawn more losses for the financial sector, causing investors to pare back risk.

As a result, Wall Street was poised to extend declines seen in Asia and in Europe.

Adding to gloom about the financial sector was a forecast by JPMorgan Securities that Lehman Brothers (LEH.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), a U.S. investment bank, will likely take a further $4 billion of write-downs in the third-quarter due to losses stemming from sour mortgage-related investments.

Additionally, worries about the stability of home finance providers Fannie Mae (FNM.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and Freddie Mac (FRE.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) persisted.

"What is unnerving the market is the ebb and flow of the credit concerns," said Andre Bakhos, president of Princeton Financial Group in Princeton, New Jersey. "There just seems to be a high degree of uncertainty. Just when you think you've seen the worst, more skeletons come out."

S&P 500 futures fell 5.20 points and were slightly below fair value, a formula that evaluates pricing by taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration on the contract.

http://www.reuters.com/article/hotStocksNews/idUSLC59987420080819

Everything down between 1.5 - 2% this morning.

LONDON, Aug 19 (Reuters) - European shares extended losses to hit their day's lows in afternoon trade on Tuesday after a U.S. government report showed that U.S. wholesale prices shot up in July at the fastest year-on-year rate in 27 years.

...

At 1236 GMT, the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index was down 1.95 percent at 1,166.01 points, having hit a low of 1,164.59 after the data.

/.. http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCALJ50981420080819?rpc=44

* sets yet another record.

It's important people see the connection.

Promptly gets ass fired.

In a statement, the CEO of UBS, who asked to remain anonymous,said, "This moron outlived his usefulness a long time ago".

and that's all we need.

The United States of Apathetica is the root cause.

:(

I see a gloomy picture. The charts tell me a story of bad things to come, the reports tell me worse-than-bad things are happening and the news posted here contributes only more bad news.

Why do I get the feeling that if I turned on CNBC they would be telling me things are good and the opportunities abound?

Nice work on the thread Marketeers! Loved the clever toon Ozy. :hi:

Julie

CLU08.NYM Crude Oil Sep 08 112.27 9:18am ET Down 0.60 (0.53%)
HOU08.NYM Heating Oil Sep 08 3.0782 9:18am ET Down 0.0066 (0.21%)
NGU08.NYM Natural Gas Sep 08 7.839 9:18am ET Down 0.049 (0.62%)
PNU08.NYM Propane Gas Sep 08 1.57 8:38am ET 0.00 (0.00%)
RBU08.NYM RBOB Gasoline Sep 08 2.8129 9:18am ET Down 0.0023 (0.08%)

Anyone notice a growing disconnect between Crude prices and HO and RBOB prices? I would ask "whassup wid dat" but I already know the answer.

Hmm... I wonder. :eyes:

The legal beagle who is trying to round up a financier for our co-op to condo conversion said that after striking out at Countrywide, he was going to talk to these bozos.

I think we are being played for fools. He wants his money, and I don't think he's a big enough shark to blackmail anybody in the market to get it.

today's the day we fall below 10,578.24 on the dow, or i'm belly-flopping back into the pool at the end of the day...

well, it is heading down ... the drain.
dp

I haven't seen AnneD in a couple of days.

School has started, so, maybe we'll have to climb the fence to get in.

and skinny dips.

But the pool is evaporating--climate change, they say.

If you don't have photographic evidence-you got bump kiss.:evilgrin:

The pool hasn't evaporated...yet.

Enter with caution......


Guess the date the DJIA rolls back to the level it was when the chimp took office-10,578.24. You can revise your dates up until Labour Day (the working man's holiday)or the DJIA hits(IMPORTANT CHANGE) 10700 (got to have a cut off). Anyone can join, just give a date and your reasoning for that date. Not the change on the cut off. That should make for a good horse race. I will check the post date/time for last minute posters but those that guessed the date way in advance get extra points. The earlier posters are at the top in the cases of multiple guesses on the same day.


DWellwer.....8/19
Dr.Phool.....8/22
Muad dib.....8/22
Skoalyman.....8/29
Nadinebrezezinski.....9/1
Radfringe.....9/1
MattSh.....9/2
Tansy Gold.....9/2 Honoring me on my birthday. I guess I won't be getting cake and a pony if this date wins
Kineneb.....9/4 taking advantage of bet spreading
Prag.....9/5
MoJo Rabbit.....9/5
Kicksana.....9/8
JuneBourder.....9/4
MuleBoy(aka hiz honna da mayor).....9/11
Nickster.....9/12
Ozy.....9/19
AnneD..... 9/19 Like the triple witching thang.
Demeter.....9/21
Ozone man.....9/23
JuneBourder.....9/29
Birthmark....10/10
Demreading DU.....10/16
TansyGold.....10/13
Roland99.....10/17, you have 2 dates, are they correct?
AnneD....10/24
Neshanic.....10/24
MsLeopard.....10/31
Wordpix.....11/3
Passingfair.....11/4
Ship wrack.....11/5
Wednesdays.....1/16/2009 your optimism is so refreshing.



Remember-you can change the dates as we learn more. If your date isn't on the list, e-mail me and I'll add it the next time I post. I erased expired dates so you can guess again. I post about one a week-more often the closer we get to the number. The winner get the praise and admiration of those on the Stock Watch Thread. We have also kicked in for a years worth of bragging rights and Karl Rove as you own pool boy if we can find Speedos to fit. There is still time to place your bets.....And please-no Reggie bars in the pool.

IMPORTANT ADDENDUM: I believe, as an investor, one day does not a trend make. So as activity coordinator of the pool, additional guesses are allowed should it dip down but pop up above the cut off. Call it the Indian Summer Clause. I personally think that 11000 is their PIN, but the fact that it cannot be pumped up any further anymore points to weakness in the system-for my $0.02.

And I've got photographs and negatives.....

The jig is up, will do.

and how did he get my date?

oh well, i'd like to re-enter w/ the date of 10/14

thankyouverymuch.
dweller

aka, dp

Highlights

Current:



30-day and 90-day vs.greenback:



30-day vs. Euro, Yen, UK Pound and Swiss Franc




Currency Comparison: http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Detailed analysis: http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD

Up-to-the-minute graph: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CD.Y%24%24&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=1

Historical values http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2008-07-08 Tuesday, July 8 0.979912 USD
2008-07-09 Wednesday, July 9 0.989315 USD
2008-07-10 Thursday, July 10 0.989805 USD
2008-07-11 Friday, July 11 0.990786 USD
2008-07-14 Monday, July 14 0.994036 USD
2008-07-15 Tuesday, July 15 0.998502 USD
2008-07-16 Wednesday, July 16 0.998004 USD
2008-07-17 Thursday, July 17 0.998203 USD
2008-07-18 Friday, July 18 0.994728 USD
2008-07-21 Monday, July 21 0.998104 USD
2008-07-22 Tuesday, July 22 0.991768 USD
2008-07-23 Wednesday, July 23 0.991277 USD
2008-07-24 Thursday, July 24 0.988728 USD
2008-07-25 Friday, July 25 0.983574 USD
2008-07-28 Monday, July 28 0.978474 USD
2008-07-29 Tuesday, July 29 0.974659 USD
2008-07-30 Wednesday, July 30 0.976562 USD
2008-07-31 Thursday, July 31 0.974564 USD
2008-08-01 Friday, August 1 0.975515 USD
2008-08-04 Monday, August 4 0.965717 USD
2008-08-05 Tuesday, August 5 0.959233 USD
2008-08-06 Wednesday, August 6 0.95511 USD
2008-08-07 Thursday, August 7 0.951475 USD
2008-08-08 Friday, August 8 0.936593 USD
2008-08-11 Monday, August 11 0.936944 USD
2008-08-12 Tuesday, August 12 0.939761 USD
2008-08-13 Wednesday, August 13 0.938262 USD
2008-08-14 Thursday, August 14 0.941531 USD
2008-08-15 Friday, August 15 0.942596 USD
2008-08-18 Monday, August 18 0.943129 USD

Current values

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

Market            Open   High    Low   Last  Change    Pct 
CD.Y$$ Cash     0.9384 0.9430 0.9381 0.9430 +0.0032 +0.34% 
CD.U08 Sep 2008 0.9386 0.9420 0.9375 0.9420 +0.0029 +0.31% 
CD.Z08 Dec 2008 0.9380        0.9380 0.9380 -0.0006 -0.06% 
CD.H09 Mar 2009 0.9519 0.9519 0.9519 0.9390 -0.0043 -0.46% 
CD.M09 Jun 2009 0.9880 0.9880 0.9880 0.9397 -0.0043 -0.46% 
CD.U09 Sep 2009 0.9540 0.9540 0.9540 0.9401 -0.0042 -0.45% 
CD.Z09 Dec 2009 0.9845 0.9845 0.9845 0.9405 -0.0041 -0.44%  

Other combinations: (http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies)

Market          Open    High    Low     Last    Change   Pct 
AUSTRALIAN $/CANADIAN $ (CME:ACD)
ACD.U08 Sep 2008 0.9219 0.9219 0.9219 0.9219 +0.0072 +0.78%   
EURO/BRITISH POUND (NYBOT:GB)
GB.U08.E Sep 2008 (E) 0.78895 0.78905 0.78840 0.78920 +0.00055 +0.07%   
EURO/JAPANESE YEN (NYBOT:EJ)
EJ.U08.E Sep 2008 (E) 160.790 161.530 160.560 161.530 +0.115 +0.07%     
EURO/US$ (SMALL) (NYBOT:EO)
EO.U08.E Sep 2008 (E) 1.46480 1.47570 1.46300 1.47490 +0.00735 +0.50%    

Blather (from http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

The September Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends last week's trading range. If September renews this month's decline, last August's low crossing at 93.00 then the 75% retracement level of the 2007-2008 rally crossing at .9279 are the next downside targets. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.86 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 94.18. Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 94.79. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 93.14. Second support is last August's low crossing at 93.00.

Analysis

If you look at the graphs, it's regaining ground nicely today.

The real reason I posted was because of something I heard on the morning drive-in. I've been wondering for awhile why, exactly, the Canadian banks did NOT get trounced by the asset-based securities disaster in the United States that now looks like it may bring down at least one major US bank. It turns out that Canadian regulators took one look at them and froze all trading. They only finally released them this week. The CBC told the story of somebody who invested the capital from the sale of a farm in ABS's and got in before the lock, then had to mortgage his house to keep up payments. Only now is he getting his money out.

Fund Managers Told to Prepare for Run


8-18-2008
By Lee Hyo-sik
Staff Reporter

Financial authorities are urging asset management companies to secure cash and other types of liquid assets in preparation for a possible massive withdrawal of equity funds investing in stocks abroad.

Most retail investors have refrained from redeeming overseas equity funds despite steep losses, but fears are growing that they could bail out of foreign stock markets en masse if share prices continue to head downward.

The Financial Supervisory Service said Monday that it is asking asset managers here to increase cash holdings and liquid assets in their portfolios to brace for the possible ``fund run, '' or massive withdrawal of money, by retail investors who put money into overseas equity funds.

The regulator is setting up a task force to strengthen the monitoring of overseas equity fund holders, as well as help asset managers manage investment risks and cope with potential liquidity shortage. It is also considering offering equity fund investors additional tax breaks and other incentives to encourage them to become long-term investors.

``There are no visible signs of a fund run yet, but now is the time for asset management firms to boost their liquidity and closely monitor the overseas equity fund market,'' an official said.

The financial watchdog held a meeting Thursday with executives of Mirae Asset Management and four others in the industry operating an array of funds investing in foreign stocks on the measures.

People investing in Chinese, Vietnamese and other Asian emerging market stocks through the indirect investment vehicle have suffered big losses over the 18 months amid the prolonged bearish market. Furthermore, equity funds investing in natural resource-rich Russian and Brazilian stock markets have recorded steep losses over the past month, weighed down by the falling prices of oil and other raw materials.

For instance, Mirae's Insight Fund, which invested more than 60 percent of its portfolio in Chinese stocks, have lost 32.3 percent of its investment since its inception in October last year. The fund had drawn more than four trillion won as investors had high expectations on the fame of Mirae and its group chairman Park Hyeon-joo.

Most investors have refrained from withdrawing money from the fund despite its dismal performance amid the bearish Chinese stock market. They have, however, begun taking money out of the fund in recent weeks, raising fears of a Mirae liquidity crunch when the massive fund withdrawal materializes. Last month alone, Insight Fun had 26.4 billion won withdrawn.

The country's first equity fund investing in shares listed on the Vietnamese market managed by Korea Investment Trust Management has lost 38 percent of its investment capital, or 224 billion won, since its inception in 2006. The fund had a paid-in capital of 590 billion won.

leehs@koreatimes.co.kr

Dow 11,348.55 Down 130.84 (1.14%)
Nasdaq 2,384.36 Down 32.62 (1.35%)
S&P 500 1,266.69 Down 11.91 (0.93%)
10-Yr Bond 3.8420% Up 0.0260
NYSE Volume 4,200,627,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,785,854,250

4:20 pm : The stock market posted a 0.9% loss Tuesday, as continued concerns regarding financials, an increase in wholesale inflation and a rebound in crude oil prices weighed on investor sentiment.

The July Producer Price Index brought disappointing news, although the CPI report last week showed some cost-push inflation pressures, so the PPI reading is not a complete surprise. Total PPI rose 1.2% in July (consensus 0.6%) and core PPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.7% (consensus 0.2%). That leaves the year-over-year increase for total PPI at 9.8% -- the highest since 1981. Core PPI is up 3.5% year-over-year, the highest level since 1991.

In other economic news, July housing starts and building permits posted steep declines, although this was partially due to a change in permit applications requirements during June. Starts fell 11% to a 965,000 annual rate (consensus 960,000) and building permits dropped 17.7% to a 937,000 annual rate (consensus 970,000). Homebuilding stocks fell 3.6%.

Eight of the ten economic sectors posted a loss in broad-based weakness.

The financial sector (-3.0%) acted as the main drag. AIG (AIG 20.37, -1.23) tumbled 5.7% after Goldman Sachs said there is an increased chance that the insurance giant may need to raise more capital, according to Reuters. Lehman Brothers (LEH 13.10, -1.93) fell 12.8% following several negative media reports, including a Wall Street Journal article that said Lehman's third quarter has turned ugly.

Meanwhile, Fannie Mae (FNM 6.04, -0.11) and Freddie Mac (FRE 4.18, -0.21) were unable to recover from the previous session's steep decline. Freddie sold new five-year notes at 4.172%, which is 113 basis points more than the five-year Treasury Note. The large spread over Treasuries indicates market participants continue to show some apprehension regarding debt from Freddie, despite the implied guarantee from the U.S. government.

Consumer discretionary stocks (-2.2%) also came under pressure, with the rise in crude prices and discouraging news from several retailers (-2.7%) prompting the selling interest. Home Depot (HD 26.05, -0.91) and Target (TGT 49.74, -0.31) both reported year-over-year declines in quarterly net earnings, although the results topped Wall Street's forecast. Still, the companies' stocks posted a decline. Meanwhile, department store operator Saks (SKS 10.32, -0.90) tumbled 8.0% after posting a larger-than-expected quarterly loss. Staples (SPLS 23.56, -1.02) fell 4.2% in response to its second quarter profit outlook that fell short of estimates.

The energy sector (+2.8%) received a boost, with oil and gas exploration stocks (+4.3%) benefiting from the 2.2% rise in crude prices.

With regard to crude, prices traded in a volatile manner on no specific news. Oil posted a loss of 1.1% at session lows, and was up 3.4% at session highs. Tomorrow, oil will once again be in focus with the government's weekly energy data set for release at 10:35 AM ET. DJ30 -130.84 NASDAQ -32.62 NQ100 -1.2% R2K -1.6% SP400 -1.0% SP500 -11.91 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 755/1.74 bln/2035 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 855/1.01 bln/2274

Good night, and good luck! (to steal a phrase)

Wang Chung flat.

And good night, Chet.

And good night, for NBC News
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huntley-Brinkley_Report

So who knows what Asia will do overnight.

/off to bed