Obama 52% Victory Forecast by Yale Professor's Economy Model

Source: Bloomberg

Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) -- With 25 days before Election Day, a forecasting model that has called the top vote-getter in the last three presidential races predicts a solid victory for Barack Obama.

The Democratic presidential candidate will get about 52 percent of the popular vote on Nov. 4, according to an economic model developed by Yale University Professor Ray Fair.

``The model has predicted all along that the Democrat will get the majority of the two-party vote, and it's still saying that,'' Fair, who has been forecasting a Democratic victory since November 2006, said in a telephone interview from New Haven, Connecticut.

Fair, 66, cautions that his algorithm doesn't measure the effects of race, age or foreign policy, all of which may play an outsize role this election, the first in which a black candidate is a major-party nominee. ``All the political stuff isn't accounted for,'' said Fair.



Read more: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&sid=aPnl.m5.6Sa8&refer=home

It falls within the margin of cheating

:eyes:

it means theft is the vehicle by which a repuke mandate becomes possible

I see the problem. Fuck.

I'm hopeful.

And predicting Clinton in 1996 wasn't exactly a tough one. :eyes:

:hurts:

they're saying who SHOULD have won

I'd like to know which candidate he called as "the top vote-getter" in 2000 and 2004. And even though he says he's not counting "all the political stuff," it appears the Bradley Effect is taken into account.

and in that regard, Obama is WAY ahead!

Instead of predicting the future, you predict the present, or even better, the past. Obama is already at 52%. The other trick is to add a lot of weasel words, so if your basic prediction is wrong, you can claim success anyway. "Race, age, foreign policy." "All the political stuff isn't accounted for."

I do prognostication as a hobby. On other posts, I've made my predictions for this election. A brief recap: 1) Obama wins. 2) He wins by a clear majority. 3) He doesn't make it to 60%. 4) McCain may dip below 40%. 5) Obama wins electoral college vote by a margin of about 200.

Note there are some weasel words in there, and if things remain unchanged from right now, I can claim 5 out of 5. See? Predict the present.

n/t