Gallup Daily: Obama-McCain Gap Narrows (+7 RV, +4 LV)

Source: Gallup

PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking report finds registered voters preferring Barack Obama (50%) to John McCain (43%) when asked who they would vote for if the presidential election were held today.

These results, based on Oct. 9-11 polling, represent a narrowing of Obama's lead over McCain. Obama led by double-digits for three consecutive days last week, but now his advantage is down to seven percentage points. Obama has led in each of the last three individual days' polling, but by less than double-digits each day, suggesting that the race is, in fact, tightening.

... Obama's current advantage is slightly less when estimating the preferences of likely voters, which Gallup will begin reporting on a regular basis between now and the election. Gallup is providing two likely voter estimates to take into account different turnout scenarios.

The first likely voter model is based on Gallup's traditional likely voter assumptions, which determine respondents' likelihood to vote based on how they answer questions about their current voting intention and past voting behavior. According to this model, Obama's advantage over McCain is 50% to 46% in Oct. 9-11 tracking data.

Read more: http://www.gallup.com/poll/111064/Gallup-Daily-ObamaMcCain-Gap-Narrows.aspx

I honestly think his true margin is around 8 or 9. Still, he's going to win.

...ad infinitum this past week.

And there's your narrowing.

Fear and loathing is McCain's most recent Hail Mary pass.

But just like all the others, it has no shelf life.

I expect Barack to pull out further ahead again after the final debate.

If ACORN did anything wrong and they can dig it out in the next two weeks, we're sunk.

Head of ACORN on CSPAN this AM said they check ballots and flag before they're turned in, but they have to turn them in nonetheless. It comes down to who gave money to whom (ACORN claims 80k, but not from Obama's campaign) for "get out the vote" campaigns, not for registration drives like the Pukes claim.

Please don't let this one stick.

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

Otherwise they can't try to ES&S McShame and the crazy lady into office with the cheat machines.

One of their big points was that daily tracking polls make for lousy journalism, because they invite people to draw conclusions about trends based on statistical noise.

that said Obama always loses points on the weekends. I haven't investigated the claim. I'm not really a poll watcher, but I do see a lot of people that rise and fall according to a poll number.

I've been checking a lot of polls, refusing to trust any particular one. The last downward fluctuation overall for Obama was 10/08, a Wednesday. Any daily measure will fluctuate. Weekly averages will fluctuate, too, but should look quite a bit smoother. Here's weekly averages from RealClearPolitics.com for the last five weeks: 2.4% McCain, 0.8% Obama, 3.6% Obama, 5.4% Obama, and 6.3% Obama.

This past week, gallup had Obama higher in mid-week, but the previous two weeks, he was lower mid-week and higher on the weekends.

Here's a prediction: In the coming week, the daily polls will . . . fluctuate.

I'll keep your prediction in mind. Sounds a little far-fetched from what I generally read. :toast:

n/t

at least a little bit by averaging the results of several polls. They have Obama's lead today at 7.3%. the high, from yesterday, was 7.6%. The trend on RCP has been pretty steadily upwards for Obama, with just a few tiny fluctuations, this trend going all the way back to 9/8, when McCain had a 2.9% lead. Since then, RCP's graph has headed in Obama's direction at a fairly steep angle, about 2% per week. With three weeks to go, this trend would reach approximately +13% Obama by election day.

Their electoral map still shows 277 Obama, 158 McCain, 103 toss-up. In percentages, that's 51.5% Obama, 29.4% McCain, and 19.1% toss-up.

Any day now Colorado and/or Florida may change from toss-ups to "leaning" Obama.

The best news I've seen, though, is over on freerepublic.com. The freepers are attacking their own candidate, and each other. Many are openly regretting the choice of McCain as their nominee.

Realclearpolitics is just a basic average of polls without any consideration of the relative quality of the poll. It is also susceptible to manipulation because they add and take away poll data haphazardly. I have sent them several emails and they never reply. Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com works on baseball statistics and explains his entire method for calculating the scenarios he presents. His approach allows him to predict the result on election day, not just report the history of what people were thinking two days ago. Take a look.

I love playing with the numbers, and you're just giving a numbers junkie more.

:D

like chickens with their heads cut off is fine with me. I don't think they ever really backed McLame, more planning to vote holding their racist noses.

Sistah Sarah was their savior, but we know how well that's working out. :evilgrin:

We need to defend against all the misundertanding that is out there, and quickly!

today was primarily negative towards Dems also. I found it appalling since it was so obvious and usually they are much more fair.

Imagine what a Republican campaign would do with Biden being found to have abused his power!

Why isn't Obama's campaign making this a big news issue?

At the very least, it could be used to keep Ayers and ACORN out of the news for a few days.

Seems like a strategic mistake to let it die without a fight?

If it gets too close, it will be stolen.

Also, the cable press has really been on the attack against Obama this week.

If you live in a safe state, make calls to a battleground. If you live in a battleground find your local Obama office and go knock on doors. Expect the polls to tighten, but polls don't vote. Get the new registered people out to vote and it will be a landslide. I just want 270! Let's make that our mantra. I just want 270!!!

It's too late for McSane to make a comeback.