Gallup Daily: Obama 49%, McCain 43%

Source: Gallup

PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking report from Monday through Wednesday shows Barack Obama with a 49%to 43% lead over John McCain among registered voters.

Almost all of the interviews in this three-day rolling average were conducted before Wednesday night's third and final presidential debate at Hofstra University, which began at 9 p.m. ET. It will be several days before the full impact of this debate can be measured in the three-day rolling average, although its initial impact might be apparent as early as Friday's report.




Read more: http://www.gallup.com/poll/111211/Gallup-Daily-Obama-49-McCain-43.aspx

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Every number on that graph is within the margin of error of the Gallup poll. You can get a graph like this with fluctuations in the error, and no change in the "real" numbers. It's unclear from the Gallup poll if any underlying trends have affected anything. If you look at longer term averages, and the results of more polls, you should get errors canceling each other out.

The Gallup Daily Tracking poll and the others all show one thing: Obama leads by a significant amount, an amount greater than the polls' internal margins of error. I can't find a single poll that shows McCain in the lead.

And when you look at the electoral college map, it shows an amplification of Obama's lead to about 1.5 or 1.8 to 1. (That's like 60-40 to 65-35 percentagewise.) This indicates the Obama campaign is playing the electoral game very skillfully. You only have to win a state by a little bit to win all its electoral votes. Winning a state by 30% doesn't count for any more than winning by 5%. A lot of people don't like that, but the founding fathers made up these rules, and part of campaigning is proving you can play the game well.