|
Remember how the CIA tried to hand JFK a 'fait accompli' war on Cuba, in his first months in office? That could be one scenario. And there are several others.
Only a few weeks ago, Bush-supported white separatists in Bolivia went on a rampage--machine-gunned 30 unarmed peasants, rioted, blew up a gas pipeline--in an effort to split off the gas/oil rich eastern provinces from Evo Morales' national government. Morales threw the Bush-U.S. ambassador's ass out of Bolivia for his collusion with these fascist murderers and rioters. Ecuador's president, Rafael Correa, has stated that there is a three-country Bushite strategy to do the same in Bolivia, Ecuador and Venezuela: fascist secessionist movements. In Venezuela's oil rich state, Zulia, on the Caribbean coast, they have a fascist governor (prez opponent of Chavez in 06) who is in cahoots with secessionists and probably with the Colombian military and rightwing paramilitary death squads next door. One possible scenario is that they declare their "independence," invite the Colombian military or paramilitaries (and US special forces, or Blackwater?) across the border, to start a civil war, then appeal to Bush to support their "independence" with the US 4th Fleet now in the Caribbean. At the least, this would cause one shitload of turmoil in South America. At most, the Bushwhacks and Exxon Mobil gain the greatest prize of all--Venezuela's biggest oil reserves and a strategic position with which to try to create a leftist-free zone in the Caribbean/Central America.
This could be instigated with some "Gulf of Tonkin" incident in the next few months, before Bush-Cheney are gone. I have reason to believe Donald Rumsfeld may be involved in such planning. What would Obama do?
A second possibility is a privately instigated civil war in Zulia, after Obama is in office. I don't think Obama would overtly support war on Venezuela, but he could wink at a private war, or a combo private war (Exxon Mobil, Blackwater) using billions stolen from us in Iraq and Colombian forces (built up with $6 BILLION in U.S.-Bush military aid).
A third possibility is that Obama DOES support such an action, and would provide overt or covert aid. The presence of Biden on the ticket, and the Clintons' active support, make me think this is at least a possibility. Bill was the initiator of "Plan Colombia." Hillary has very close ties to the fascist thugs running Colombia. Her chief campaign strategist, Mark Penn, was a paid agent of the Colombian government.
Obama could proceed with a subtler "divide and conquer" strategy on the surface, while this kind of shite goes forward under the radar of the American people.
I have no illusions about Obama, on South American issues. He is the "nice face" that our Corpo/Fascists want to put forward in South America, until they can regain a foothold to control South American resources again--especially their oil, but also predatory financial control through the World Bank/IMF, and military control via the corrupt, failed, murderous U.S. "war on drugs." Ecuador's leftist president is about to throw the U.S. "war on drugs" base at Manta out of the country (80% of Ecuadorans favor this). Bolivia's leftist government is in outright rebellion against the U.S. "war on drugs" (which is basically a war against the poor). The U.S. "war on drugs" is one of the biggest war/police-state boondoggles, next to the wars on Iraq and Afghanistan, and Israel/Palestine.
We're talking major, MAJOR war profiteer interests--so big, and so corrupt, that no one--and I mean, no one--can stand against them, and expect to be crowned emperor of the U.S. That's just the reality. Obama may have the best intentions in the world--but he is walking through a minefield.
The best scenario that I think is possible and realistic is that Obama works out more peaceful relations between our Corpo/Fascists and the South American left. There IS room for compromise. These are DEMOCRATIC leaders--Chavez, Morales, Correa. They are close friends and allies of Lula da Silva in Brazil and the Kirchners in Argentina. They are part of the MAINSTREAM in South America. They are by no means "dictators" or extremists. And, together, these countries--Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador and also Uruguay, Paraguay and, to some extent, Chile--are creating a NEW South America, committed to economic/political integration and social justice. They are NOT anti-business. Even the most leftist among them, Venezuela, has seen a nearly 10% economic growth rate over the last five years, with the most growth in the private sector. When you look at Venezuela's policies, you see that what they aspire to is European/Scandinavian-type socialism (universal health care, government control of resources for the common good, etc.)--in a mixed socialist/capitalist economy. They have a RIGHT to implement such policies. It is the will of the people--proven time and again, in transparent elections all over the continent. And the U.S. and its corporations have NO right to impose predatory capitalism, or any other policy (including the "war on drugs") in South America. As Evo Morales has said, "We want partners, not bosses."
So that is the key: The U.S. stopping its arrogant, violent bullying of these countries, and becoming a respectful partner, with mutual goals of prosperity and social justice. These governments will not permit the kind of global corporate predator exploitation, and U.S. dictation of policy, that has occurred in the past. Can Obama achieve a compromise between our capitalists and the people of South America? I don't know. Does he have good intentions in this regard? Maybe, but I don't really know. But one thing I do know: The Dark Lords--the Bush Cartel, Exxon Mobile & brethren, and their fascist colluders in South America--are NOT resigned to the present state of affairs, a truly democratic South America.
|