A fearful end to Sri Lanka's war?

Source: BBC

Sri Lanka's government says it is nearing victory in its 25-year conflict with the Tamil Tigers, but as Roland Buerk explains the war will leave a bitter legacy.


Sri Lanka's government believes it is now winning the 25-year war
The Sri Lanka Air Force helicopter flew fast and low out of Anuradhapura, heading north.

The white domes of the ancient city's Buddhist temples stood high over the green canopy of the treetops.

Flares thumped out of tubes on the helicopter's side, bright red sparks trailed thick white smoke into the jungle just below, a defence against being shot down.

We were being flown to meet soldiers taking part in the military's offensive against the Tamil Tigers. Not too close to the battlefields though: Sri Lanka's government carefully controls access by journalists.



Read more: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/from_our_own_correspondent/7740527.stm

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Doesn't look for the Tamil Tigers at this stage..

The war ebbs and flows. But until the national rights of all groups are addressed and Sinhala chauvinism reigned in, the fight will continue.

I recall a few years ago the military all-but declared victory, when suddenly the Tigers swept over the north like nothing had happened. As you say, as long as the root causes remain, a new generation will take up arms.

violence and ethic strive - here is something I posted the day after the election here. Many Sri Lankans contrasted what we did in electing Obama to the current lack of hope that

"Yesterday morning, I spoke to one of my college daughters, who had in spring semester last year done her study abroad in Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka is currently in an eighteen year old civil war between 2 ethnic groups. When she was there, people were intensely interested in the election. Although a very small island, they are divided by ethnic group and religion. The two main ethnic groups, both of which originated in India are the Tamils, who are Hindu and the Sinhalese who are Buddhist. In addition, they have people who are Christian (mostly Catholics because of Portuguese Jesuits and Tamil speaking Moslems, who are descented from 14th century Moorish traders. (I think I have this right)

She went to the web site of their English language newspaper that she often read there. They show how incredible the reaction was immediately. It is fascinating that not only was their praise for the US, but internal soul searching on their own ethnic/religious divides. They do not see that anyone other than a Buddhist Sinhalese person could rule in their country. (While there she lived for several months with a Sinalese family and then for about a month with a Moslem family - but of which she loved (as they did her.)

An except chosen by my daughter of letters:
"My wholehearted congratulations and well wishers from fellow citizens of Sri
Lanka. Your achievement gives an courage to the entire world. I wish that you
are very capable to solve the problems which has been arising so for in the
world. You have change the race and colour of the human in America. Good Luck
Good Luck

Posted By: Gamini H

Actually we love you.please make your concentration to develop third world
countries.congradulations.

Posted By: cbandara

Congratulations & Congratulations for the whole american people initialy
selecting a right candidate after 8 years. Mr.Obama deserves to be the president
of US. His entry as the US president will definetly change the US & the world to
a peacefull status. Well done Mr.Obama & god bless you.

Posted By: S.S.Sureshkumar

Now the challenge begun the world needs a change we r happy at least americans
choose some 1 from minority now justify it

Posted By: jehan

When is a Sri-Lankan going to feel the same way that an American felt listening
to Obama's victory speech ???

Posted By: HOPE

Will Sri Lanka and Sri Lankan (Singhalese) will learn a lesson from this
results? A BLACK skin personality can become a PRESIDENT OF AMERICA! Can either
a Tamil become a prime minister or president of Sri Lanka? It is only a day
draem in this RACIST country for ever!!!

Posted By: nandu

Congratulations. It is hoped that you will be able create that global village
that we long for- sans differentiations and divisions. Good Luck to you !!

Posted By: ys

Congratulations-America you showed the world it is not about color,religion,its
about love for your country and the determination to work hard for the people
and you delivered your verdict.If only we in Sri lanka could have chosen leaders
without religious and racial bias maybe we we would have never been in this
mess.I too think that Lakshman Kadirgamar would have been a statesman like Obama
but we are not blessed for such things.

Posted By: christine abeywickrema

This is good lession to singhele brothers and sisters to understand the
democratic in USA . Please let us as well make this (Sri lanka ) country peace
without racism . lets fight against the racism god bless this beatifull island

Posted By: Mohamed

Congratulations Dear Barak Hussain Obama! You have done it aginst all odds. You
have proved that if there is a will there is a way too.You have become the first
Afro-American President of USA and now it is up to you to be the first US
President to get the support of arch enemies of US ( Cuba , Venezula Libiya and
Iraq etc). Whatever happenes whole world is with you and you are the man of the
moment. Good Luck ! ! !

Posted By: Senaka Wijesinghe

Can ever at least a Sinhalese Catholic be the President of this country!!!
Amaricans have changed, when can we change???

Posted By: Ivan

Congratulations senator !! you have a gifted background to attract every people
by your charming words with confidence, hope you can see the world with a
different eye !! all the best to you !!!

Posted By: Riyazi

"The road ahead will be long. Our climb will be steep. We may not get there in
one year or even one term, but America --I have never been more hopeful than I
am tonight that we will get there," - Barack Obama....anybody there for SL?,hope
this will be a good lesson for whole world

Posted By: sincere citizen"
http://www.dailymirror.lk/DM_BLOG/Sections/frmNewsDetailView.aspx?ARTID=31286

During the Vietnam War, the CIA fought a war in Laos against the North Vietnamese and their Laotian allies (Who later took charge of Laos in the mid-1970s). The US would use its helicopters to take huge areas of Laos during the Monsoon Season, and then the North Vietnamese and their Laotian allies would re-take it with ground troops during the Dry Season, do to their larger ground comitment in Laos and support for Laotian allies.

Part of what is happening in Sri Lanka is Similar. The traditional Dry season ends in October of each year. I believe the Monsoon came late this year, but we are only one month in the first of two Monsoon season in Sri Lanka. The traditional Monsoon is October to January in the Northeast section of Sri Lanka (The Southwest get more rain so it technically has two Monsoon season, back to back while the Northwest only has one monsoon season, October to January). Most of the Government gains seems to come in dry season January to October and the Guerrillas re-take much of the area, for their have local support, between November and January. The Government need access to local roads, which become impassable during the Monsoon (The Guriallas use foot or bicycle transport, so less dependent on roads).

My impression of this report it is a release of information by the Sir Lanka Government to brag about their latest gain before even they know it will be reduced (much like Laos during the Vietnam Conflict). The Government seems to have done more this year then they had in previous year but in the next three months we will see of this is a permanent gain or a temporary gain.

For more on Sir Lanka and the Monsoon see:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geography_of_Sri_Lanka

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/world/country_guides/results.shtml?tt=TT002810

http://www.srilankaexoticholidays.com/info_srilanka.shtml

More on Laos and the CIA's run war in Laos:
http://www.olive-drab.com/od_history_vietnam_laos.php
http://ehistory.osu.edu/vietnam/books/aiv/0035.cfm