STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday January 6

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday January 6, 2009

DAYS REMAINING UNTIL BUSH IS GONE = 14

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.
$1 USD = EUR 1.06678
$1 USD = JPY 116.6200

In recognition of those who predicted the Dow's precipitous return on Bush values (9/29/08): JuneBourder and AnneD

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON January 5, 2009

Dow... 8,952.89 -81.80 (-0.91%)
Nasdaq... 1,628.03 -4.18 (-0.26%)
S&P 500... 927.45 -4.35 (-0.47%)
Gold future... 857.80 -21.70 (-2.53%)
30-Year Bond 3.04% +0.23 (+7.99%)
10-Yr Bond... 2.49% +0.07 (+2.98%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD,EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

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Handy Links

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Read more: du

"Damn the Torpedoes, Full Speed Ahead!"
Destination: Japan or Zimbabwe?
BY TONY ALLISON

The famous quotation above comes from the Battle of Mobile Bay in 1864 during the Civil War. Union Admiral David Farragut needed to capture Mobile Bay and Fort Morgan, but was facing a bay strewn with mines (called “torpedo fields” back then) that had already taken down the USS Tecumseh with all 94 men going down with the ship. Coming under fire from both the Confederate fleet and Fort Morgan, Farragut had to decide between retreat or taking on the minefield. Farragut issued his now historic order, eluded the minefield and emerged victorious.

The Federal Reserve and the incoming Obama Administration today face an economic minefield more treacherous than even that faced by Admiral Farragut. They must either charge ahead aggressively with unprecedented spending programs, or retreat and be accused of letting the economy fall off a cliff. One can easily guess which way they will go. Full speed ahead!

....

It appears fairly certain that the Fed and the new administration will not be incremental. They will “go big” with both monetary and fiscal policy, and not be the least concerned about inflationary effects down the line. The Fed seems to believe it can handle that situation should it arise by draining liquidity out of the economy. We shall see. Economic stimulus and money creation of this massive and historic nature has never been attempted. In a complex global economy, unintended consequences are always a potential risk lurking around the bend. Clearly the Fed is more concerned about the deflationary effects of debt and deleveraging. The Fed has already “leveraged up” its balance sheet to the tune of $1.2 trillion in 2008 and appears to be just getting warmed up. Expect many trillions of new dollars (borrowed or printed) to be thrown into the fray in 2009. This road could eventually lead to Zimbabwe-like inflation.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

and I have my doubts about both the speed and the direction that our Leaders will choose.

Yay, I'm not a newbie anymore.

More like "Fear in my gut."


"Oh noes!11! The few remaining pukes in my senate might gang up on me! I better give 'em what they want or they'll take my lunch money!"


Harry, you twat, THEY ALREADY DID. AND THEY TOOK MY LUNCH MONEY AND MY MOTHER'S LUNCH MONEY AND MY GRANDCHILDREN'S LUNCH MONEY.....


As someone said in another thread, what a wanker.



Tansy Gold, who isn't quite sure she knows what a "wanker" is but has a pretty good idea and is quite sure she doesn't want to be called one herself!

Put your mind at ease. (See what too much Harry Potter fanfiction will do to you?)

Twat, on the other hand, we are fully qualified for, biologically. But anyone who says it is gonna have to answer to a knuckle sandwich.

My first X-rated post. I don't know quite how to feel, pleased or appalled.

Feels good. Kinda like being a wanker. (Oh, non-specific deity, forgive me for that one.)

Wanker is Brit slang for m*sturbater. (And technically, fems can do that. But maybe not by wanking. (Spell check didn't object to wanking!)) That's how it started out. Wanker has kinda morphed into a general insult for an ineffectual person.

wankers. :evilgrin:

10:00 Factory Orders Nov
Briefing.com -2.0%
Consensus -2.6%
Prior -5.1%

10:00 ISM Services Dec
Briefing.com 37.0
Consensus 37.0
Prior 37.3

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

01. U.S. Nov. factory orders fall 4.6% vs. -2.2% expected
10:00 AM ET, Jan 06, 2009

02. U.S. Nov. factory shipments fall record 5.3%
10:00 AM ET, Jan 06, 2009

03. U.S. Nov. factory orders ex-transportation fall 4.2%
10:00 AM ET, Jan 06, 2009

04. U.S. Nov. core capital equipment orders rise 3.9%
10:00 AM ET, Jan 06, 2009

05. U.S. Nov. durable goods orders fall 1.5%
10:00 AM ET, Jan 06, 2009

06. U.S. Nov. nondurable goods shipments fall 7.4% on oil prices
10:00 AM ET, Jan 06, 2009

07. U.S. Nov. core capital equipment orders up 3.9%
10:00 AM ET, Jan 06, 2009

08. U.S. November pending home sales index down 4%
10:00 AM ET, Jan 06, 2009

U.S. Dec. ISM services 40.6%, above consensus 37%

SINGAPORE – Oil prices remained above $48 a barrel Tuesday in Asia amid signs OPEC is implementing announced production cuts and as Israel's ground offensive in Gaza kept tensions high in the oil-rich Middle East.

Light, sweet crude for February delivery fell 69 cents to $48.12 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by afternoon in Singapore. The contract rose overnight $2.47 to settle at $48.81.

....

Oil prices have risen 42 percent since reaching a five-year low of $33.87 a barrel on Dec. 19 despite signs that a severe global economic slowdown is worsening.

U.S. auto sales plunged 36 percent in December, and President-elect Barack Obama said Monday the U.S. economy was "bad and getting worse."

....

In other Nymex trading, gasoline futures fell 0.47 cent to $1.18 a gallon. Heating oil slid 0.46 cent to $1.57 a gallon while natural gas for February delivery jumped 7.2 cents to $6.14 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

Thank you, Israel, for nothing.

TOKYO – Toyota is suspending production at all 12 of its Japan plants for 11 days over February and March, a stoppage of unprecedented scale for the nation's top automaker as it grapples with shrinking global demand.

The last time Toyota Motor Corp. halted production at all its Japan plants was in August 1993, when demand plunged because of a rising yen, and that was for only one day, according to the company.

A global economic downturn has hammered the auto industry in Japan and elsewhere, forcing carmakers to cut staff, lower production and delay new models. Major automakers in the U.S. had teetered on the brink of collapse until securing a multibillion dollar government lifeline.

....

Overnight, Toyota reported that its U.S. sales in December were down 37 percent on year, a worse drop than Ford Motor Co.'s 32 percent drop and General Motor's 31 percent slide.

Toyota last year suspended production at its auto plants in Alabama, Indiana and Texas for three months, and shut down output for two days in December at all its North American vehicle factories including five in the United States, one in Canada and another in Mexico.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090106/ap_on_bi_ge/as_japan_toyota

How can this be? Toyota doesn't have overpaid UAW workers! They're the reason the Detroit auto makers aren't selling cars! It's the unions' fault!

I mean, it can't be because there's a global recession, can it? It can't be because the haves have it all now and no one else can afford to buy anything, because the good-paying union (and even good paying non-union) jobs are all gone, mostly shipped to China and its slave labor camps. . . . . .



Tansy Gold, who just can't bring herself to use the totally unnecessary :sarcasm: thingy

Sure it makes me look like a syringe. But I don't care. I just look useful. And you'd be amazed to see the expression a politician wears when he asks me for my vote. Or the look on a panhandler's face when I refuse to "help him out".

Anyway, my point is: nothing makes sense anymore when you consider the criticisms from the right anti-union and anti-labor factions. Perhaps the world would make sense to the anti-labor crowd if we were all investment bankers. But then, to be useful, an investment banker today would need to carry something like a plunger; ever ready to tackle that clog in the system.

I dunno. Does this sarcasm make sense?

One thing that gets me, is how well sold the anti-union, anti-labor program is. It's been my experience that some of the most rabid anti-union people, are some of the poorest, hard-working people that I've ever seen. The ones with the most to gain.

propaganda. they hear lies enough times, they believe it as truth

Lifelong pukes before boooosh. I mean, my father-in-law was a GOP precinct committeeman for probably 50 years. My mother-in-law was twice elected county treasurer in a virtually all-red county.

My father-in-law belonged to two different unions, one for meatcutters, one for carpenters. His medical insurance and a good part of his retirement is due to union benefits. For years and years and years and years he was rabidly anti-union --- for factory workers. It was okay for him, because he saw *his* trades as independent. Because construction was never a steady job, carpenters "needed" a union. Factory workers were just lazy and wanted a guaranteed wage so they could sit around and drink coffee and smoke cigarettes and scream discrimination if a supervisor asked them to work.

Eventually, after some of his friends lost their jobs because the companies they worked for shipped jobs to Mexico and Thailand and goddess only knows where, he suddenly realized what the truth was. By then, of course, the damage had been done.

They may have voted for Clinton but I'm not sure. I think they may have voted for boooosh the first time, but by 2004 they hated his guts. They've never changed their party, but they have definitely changed their votes.


The anti-labor and especially anti-union rhetoric are very familiar to me. Friends have learned NOT to engage me on that subject, because if they start out anti-union and get into a discussion with me, they will either emerge pro-worker or they will leave in emotional collapse.


Tansy Gold, the merciless

He trumpeted his father's and uncle's lucrative pension benefits (thanks to their unions) but swore that he never would join a union because of their self-destructive practices characterized by higher wage demands, workplace accommodations (like safety mechanisms) and, gasp!, defined pension benefits that eroded the company's bottom line.

If Bush had promised to eliminate welfare, unemployment insurance, Social Security disability benefits then this Luddite would have worked tirelessly to gin support to repeal the 22nd Amendment to make Bush eligible to run for a third term. Really. He said this.

It's no use arguing with people like this guy. Armed with invincible ignorance, a nihilist of this sort proselytizes his passion to destroy anything associated with whatever said person opposes. Beware of people like this talking about 'reform'. Reform to them is accomplished with a fist.

also Jimmy Hoffa and the Purple Gang....

I can understand objecting to crime, graft, violence and corruption.

I cannot understand objections to welfare, unemployment insurance, disability and the like.

What Hoffa ever did was never as bad as what the coal companies did to miners and their families. Miners and their families were massacred on several occasions-YES massacred in this country. I'll take a corrupt union over a corporation any day of the week.

My grandfather was born in Penn, but at age 2 was taken back to visit the old country just as WWI broke out. When it was all over, and Pres. Wilson signed an order so the family could come back to the US (retreated all the way to the Pacific behind Russian lines, survived the Bolsheviks, etc.) they resettled in Detroit, where the jobs were.

He lived a panoramic life. But he didn't dig coal.

in the coal mines and some of thecruel things that were done by the Pinkerton Agency (I think that was their name). Your Grand dad would have thought twice. Most Americans are totally ignorant to this history.

Chrysler, though, was another, sadder story.

The material writes itself, and your delivery is devastatingly witty and accurate.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3676264

I'm posting this without telling you what it is only because I didn't see any regular SMWers as posters in the thread. I'm sure there are lots of cross-lurkers though.



TG

but it is funny, if you don't think about it too hard. I now have a headache.....

HONG KONG – Asian stock markets were mostly higher Tuesday, shrugging off lackluster trade overnight in the U.S. and Europe amid growing optimism the world economy would start to recover later this year.

Overseas markets, meanwhile, were poised to follow Asian bourses higher as European benchmarks gained early in the session and Wall Street futures pointed to a positive open.

....

In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 stock average rose 37.72 points, or 0.4 percent, to 9,080.84 as a weaker yen boosted exporters like Sony Corp. and Canon Inc.

....

The Shanghai Composite Index rose 3 percent to 1,937.15, as property firms got a boost after a top official said the government would increase possible financing methods for developers and improve access to low-cost housing.

Eslewhere, South Korea's Kospi rose 1.8 percent and Australia's key benchmark added 1.5 percent. Hong Kong was the only major regional market to fall, with the Hang Seng index down 53.80 points, or 0.4 percent, at 15,509.51 points.

As trading opened in Europe, Britain's FTSE 100 was up 0.6 percent, Germany's DAX gained 0.4 percent and France's CAC-40 added 0.1 percent.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090106/ap_on_bi_ge/world_markets

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. President-elect Barack Obama said on Monday he expected "sobering" unemployment figures at the end of this week as he went to Capitol Hill to campaign for his economic stimulus package.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090105/pl_nm/us_usa_obama_stimulus

---

This week's numbers will be fairly inaccurate because of shortened administrative activity due to the holidays. Next week's numbers will be a doozy. We already see news, such as that below, that will culminate in a surge in unemployment claims.

---

Economists see jobless surge, deeper housing hole

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The worst financial crisis in more than a half century is going to get even worse, putting further pressure on U.S. home prices and driving the unemployment rate above 11 percent, according to two prominent academic economists.

Carmen Reinhart, from the University of Maryland, and Kenneth Rogoff, of Harvard, suggested housing might not bottom until 2010, which bodes poorly for struggling banks that still hold trillions in mortgages.

....

They said that on average the examples they studied as comparisons, which included rich countries like Sweden and Japan as well as poorer developing nations such as Malaysia and Thailand, the unemployment rate rose an average of 7 percentage points over a four-year period. Given that U.S. unemployment bottomed at 4.6 percent in late 2006, this would take the eventual rate above 11 percent.

That would mean at least another 6 million to 7 million jobs could be lost from current levels, according to government data. The November jobless rate, the latest data point available, was 6.7 percent.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090105/bs_nm/us_usa_economy_outlook

A big reason auto sales have tanked in recent months is the sharp rise in unemployment. Folks who are worried about losing their jobs aren't likely to take on the added risk of a five-year car loan.

Hyundai Motor America unveiled a novel approach to the problem over the weekend. Dubbed the Hyundai Assurance Program, the South Korean automaker said people who finance or lease a new Hyundai during the next 12 months could return the car if they "experience an involuntary loss of income" within one year of the purchase date.

....

Hyundai, with a 3% share of the U.S. market in 2008, certainly needs customers. Its sales were down 48% last month compared with a year earlier -- one of the worst showings among automakers.

Hyundai said it would absorb as much as $7,500 in negative equity (the difference between what a vehicle is worth and what is owed on it) for buyers who opt to walk away from their loans. Customers who pay cash for their vehicles don't qualify for the program.

http://www.latimes.com/business/careers/work/la-fi-hyundai6-2009jan06,0,2449126.story

Wow, these numbers are simply awful:

• General Motors U.S. sales plunged to a 49-year low in 2008. December was another poor month, down 31%;

• Toyota U.S. deliveries plummeted 37% percent;

• Honda fell 35%;

• Ford Motor fell 32%

• Nissan was down 31% percent;

• Chrysler dived 53%;

• Mercedes-Benz was off 24;

•Audi sales fell 9.3%

• BMW sales fell 36%

• Subaru sales were down 7.7%;

• Volkswagen AG said its December sales fell 14%;

• This was the worst annual volume since 1992;

• 2008 will be the first year in which the U.S. automakers combined market share was less than 50%;

• This was the first drop in sales for Japanese automakers for Toyota since (1995) and Honda (1993);

These are terrible numbers across the board . . .

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/car-sales-iwere-horrific/

down only 7% compared to Honda at 35%???

I was gonna make one, but I had to go to work. My son looked up the figures and said Mini was the big winner--sales up 1% in December. And for anyone who cares, according to its company blog, Tesla has made over 100 cars. Not quite ready to replace GM. Just 4 orders of magnitude short.

"Industry-wide, automakers sold 896,124 new cars, minivans and trucks in December, a drop of 36 percent compared with December 2007."

. . .

"For the entire year, U.S. sales totaled 13.24 million in 2008, down about 18 percent, according to Autodata, and the fewest U.S. sales since 1992."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/01/05/AR2009010501693.html?hpid=topnews

18% down for the year is bad, but not as bad as Chrysler sales dropping 53% in December. There is a latent demand for new cars building up, though. Whichever car companies survive this horrible period will do very well.

And it looks like Tesla might have to ramp up production by 5 orders of magnitude (that's 100,000) to replace all the old dinosaur driven car companies. (Sorry to pick on Tesla, but I get a little frustrated on other threads when people with little knowledge of the auto market say we should let the old companies die and let new forward-thinking companies like Tesla take over. They just don't understand the scale of what they're talking about. Tesla has had troubles building 100 cars. The big car companies build over 1,000,000 a month.)

BRUSSELS, Jan 6 (Reuters) - Euro zone inflation plunged more than expected to a 26-month low in December, data showed on Tuesday, pulling the rug from under the euro on rising expectations of a deep European Central Bank rate cut next week.

The European Union's statistics office Eurostat said inflation in the 15 countries using the euro in December was 1.6 percent year-on-year, down from 2.1 percent in November and well below the ECB target of just under 2 percent.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected a decline to 1.8 percent. The euro plunged against the dollar <EUR=> to $1.3369 from $1.3440 in response.

The estimate does not contain a monthly figure or a detailed breakdown, but economists said the fall stemmed mainly from a sharp drop in oil prices compared to the same period of 2007.

"It makes it even more likely for the ECB to cut interest rates further in the next few months, starting in January and going to 1.5 percent in March," said Holger Schmieding, co-head of Europe economics at Bank of America.

"Next week, the cut will probably be 50 basis points," he said.

The ECB meets to discuss rates on Jan. 15. Markets have largely priced in a 50 basis point cut, with some investors betting on a 75 basis point move after the last such reduction in December. ECBWATCH

The bank has cut rates by 175 basis points to 2.5 percent since October as inflation decelerated rapidly from a July peak of 4.0 percent along with a sharply slowing economy and falling oil prices.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idAFL653286120090106?rpc=44

from Calculated Risk

From San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen: Comments on "The Revival of Fiscal Policy"


more...

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article21648.htm

January 05, 2009 "Information Clearinghouse" -- Economists will scoff at the question in the title. But that’s because they are trying to fit the present into the past.

In the past recoveries were routine, because recessions were temporary restraints resulting from the Federal Reserve putting the brakes on an overheating economy. By restraining the supply of money and credit, the Fed caused inventory buildup, layoffs, and a halt to price rises and union wage demands. With the economy cooled by unemployment, the Fed would take off the brakes. Interest rates would decline, money would flow, consumer demand would rise and workers would be called back to the factories...In those days when workers borrowed to spend, they were borrowing against rising real wages from rising productivity. In economic downturns, few workers actually lost their jobs. They were laid off from their jobs for temporary periods. Workers seldom lost their homes or cars, thanks to union funds and unemployment benefits.

Today the situation is different. In the 21st century real wages have not risen. Workers have spent more by accepting deteriorating household balance sheets. They have maxed out their credit cards and spent the equity in their homes. Imitators of the US government, American consumers borrow to pay their bills.The expansion of household debt relative to income created the illusion that the economy was sound. But the consumer economy was as much of a credit-based bubble as the real estate bubble and the financial sector bubble. The economy has lost its real basis.

Today it is difficult to stimulate consumer demand by lowering interest rates. Consumers are too heavily in debt to borrow any more. Financial institutions are too impaired to want to lend to anyone except those who don’t need to borrow. As the Keynesian macroeconomists used to say, “you can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make him drink.”

And there’s another problem. Much of what American consumers purchase today is made offshore. Stimulating consumer demand in America puts factories back to work, but those factories are located elsewhere in the world.

How does an economy consume more than it produces? Previously, this question applied only to poor third world countries. These countries would consume by the grace of World Bank loans. From time to time they would pay for their consumption by being put through an IMF restructuring program that would curtail their consumption to make them repay their loans by forced saving....

MORE AT LINK

Is Biden's mission to find an alternate supply route? If that's the case, then Robert's prediction could be disastrous.

And not only because we may have trouble supplying an army in Afghanistan. Revolutions break out due to economic mismanagement. Robert Heinlein once said something like, "Every man is only a few days of missed meals from becoming a revolutionary."

(First day of 2009. Big adjustments. Yesterday, last day of month and last day of first fiscal quarter, up 147B, today, first day of month and first day of second quarter, down 72B.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,320,066,198,644.34 + 4,307,895,097,286.33
DOWN 49,252,670,832.20 + DOWN 22,590,897,849.26

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 300-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.33 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: THEIR SHARE IS TEN BUCKS in a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is a federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)
(I hate those end to end dollars to the moon and back, or years to spend $100/second. Just say'n)
If you read this and have a suggestion or comment, good or bad, I'd love to see it.

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is -2,600,241,606.57.
The average for the last 30 days would be -1,906,843,844.82.
The average for the last 31 days would be -1,845,332,753.05.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 64 reports in 94 days of FY2009 averaging 9.43B$ per report, 6.42B$/day.

PROJECTION:
GWB** must relinquish the presidency in 18 days.
By that time the debt could be between 10.6 and 10.7T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/02/2009 10,627,961,295,930.60 GWB (UP 4,899,765,499,749.03 so far since Bush took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 603,236,399,018.20 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
12/11/2008 -019,940,834,952.80 -
12/12/2008 -000,182,958,692.63 ---
12/15/2008 +027,986,876,028.13 ------------********** Mon
12/16/2008 +000,172,636,444.49 ------------********
12/17/2008 -000,200,107,551.80 ---
12/18/2008 -057,877,925,051.10 -
12/19/2008 -000,369,261,235.72 ---
12/22/2008 -000,588,542,244.94 --- Mon
12/23/2008 +000,074,940,615.00 ------------*******
12/24/2008 -000,121,597,338.38 ---
12/26/2008 -036,328,594,643.92 -
12/29/2008 -000,737,189,520.41 --- Mon
12/30/2008 +000,055,730,362.68 ------------*******
12/31/2008 +046,553,280,763.13 ------------**********
01/02/2009 -049,252,670,832.20 -

-90,756,217,850.47 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $963,329,492,671.60 in last 106 days.
That's 963B$ in 106 days.
More than any year ever, except last year, and it's 95% of that highest year ever only in 106 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 106 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3673077&mesg_id=3673103

(On either side of the calendar-year/first-quarter beginning and end, big moves. Today, nope. Just small moves.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,319,153,451,562.27 + 4,316,358,609,344.89
DOWN 912,747,082.07 + UP 8,463,512,058.56

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 300-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.33 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: THEIR SHARE IS TEN BUCKS in a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is a federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)
(I hate those end to end dollars to the moon and back, or years to spend $100/second. Just say'n)
If you read this and have a suggestion or comment, good or bad, I'd love to see it.

ANALYSIS:
There were 20 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 20 reports is -887,963,609.64.
The average for the last 30 days would be -591,975,739.76.
The average for the last 31 days would be -572,879,748.15.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 65 reports in 97 days of FY2009 averaging 9.40B$ per report, 6.30B$/day.

PROJECTION:
GWB** must relinquish the presidency in 15 days.
By that time the debt could be between 10.6 and 10.7T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/05/2009 10,635,512,060,907.10 GWB (UP 4,907,316,264,725.53 so far since Bush took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 610,787,163,994.70 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
12/12/2008 -000,182,958,692.63 ---
12/15/2008 +027,986,876,028.13 ------------********** Mon
12/16/2008 +000,172,636,444.49 ------------********
12/17/2008 -000,200,107,551.80 ---
12/18/2008 -057,877,925,051.10 -
12/19/2008 -000,369,261,235.72 ---
12/22/2008 -000,588,542,244.94 --- Mon
12/23/2008 +000,074,940,615.00 ------------*******
12/24/2008 -000,121,597,338.38 ---
12/26/2008 -036,328,594,643.92 -
12/29/2008 -000,737,189,520.41 --- Mon
12/30/2008 +000,055,730,362.68 ------------*******
12/31/2008 +046,553,280,763.13 ------------**********
01/02/2009 -049,252,670,832.20 -
01/05/2009 -000,912,747,082.07 --- Mon

-71,728,129,979.74 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $970,880,257,648.09 in last 109 days.
That's 971B$ in 109 days.
More than any year ever, except last year, and it's 95% of that highest year ever only in 109 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 109 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3674907&mesg_id=3674946

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article21599.htm


-- On February 24, 2005, I clicked on the evening news to see President Bush finishing his European tour in Slovakia, surrounded by children waving little American flags. It had the feel of a Macy’s holiday window designed by Karl Rove. I recalled a recent news item about Slovakia. Just two months prior to the President’s visit, Slovakia initiated a plan to divert nine per cent of worker’s wages into private investment accounts laden with corporate stocks and bonds as an alternative to a government run social security program.

This was similar to a plan that President Bush had peddled under the banner of the “ownership society.” Fortunately, this was one of the rare occasions when the President was rebuked by Congress.

Today in the U.S., with both corporate bonds and stocks suffering massive losses and over $2 trillion of taxpayers’ dollars doled out by the Federal Reserve to shore up Wall Street firms in various stages of insolvency, we finally grasp the true meaning of “the ownership society:” the Wall Street execs absconded with the so-called profits; the little people own the losses; the next generation owns the bailout debt. This scheme makes Ponzi artist Bernie Madofflook like a piker.

The Slovakia plan was modeled after the program set up in Chile in 1980 and 28 other countries thereafter. According to actuarial studies of the plans in Chile and Mexico, it was an asset stripping operation that allowed Wall Street firms like Citigroup to strip away as much as 20 to 25 per cent of the workers’ wages in fees to “manage” the money.

The Chilean plan was the brainchild of Jose Pinera, who served as Labor Minister under the brutal military dictatorship of General Augusto Pinochet. Pinera later emerged as the global pied piper of private accounts to replace government run social security systems and peddled his pension reform mantra around the globe.

In testimony before the U.S. Senate on June 26, 1997, Pinera explained how private accounts move workers to the corporate side of the table: “A typical Chilean worker is not indifferent to the behavior of the stock market or interest rates. Intuitively, he knows that his old age security depends on the well being of the companies that represent the backbone of the economy.” In Pinera’s book, The Bull by the Horns, he says the whole working population can become “shareholder capitalists.”

According to Pinera’s web site, www.pensionreform.org, (which is registered not to him but to the Cato Institute, a free market think tank) Pinera sat down in the Austin home of George W. Bush, then Governor of Texas, and mapped out his vision.

I had a chance to personally observe this worker-capitalist dynamic in action in August 1994. I was working for the Wall Street brokerage firm, Smith Barney (which had been taken over by the large insurance company, Traveler’s) and was called to an employee meeting by the branch manager and a visiting V.P. from the corporate headquarters. Employees were shown a new benefits plan that deferred anything we might hypothetically get in deferred compensation invested in company stock intothe distant future while dramatically increasing our expenses in the present.

While the room was fuming, one of my colleagues spoke up. He said since we’re getting deferred stock over time in the publicly-traded parent company (Traveler’s), and reducing company expenses will boost profits and push the stock price higher, isn’t this something we should support. The room immediately calmed. They had sipped the Kool Aid of shareholder capitalism. (Traveler’s would eventually merge with Citicorp to become Citigroup and in 2008 require a backstop of hundreds of billions of taxpayers’ dollars to prevent the company from collapsing.)

I opted out of the stock plan. The fine print of this so-called Capital Appreciation Plan said the firm could keep two years of the wages I put into the plan if I was terminated for cause or left to join a competitor. This sounded to me like shackled shareholder capitalism at best and theft of employee wages at worst.

Combined with Traveler’s, and later Citigroup’s, private justice system which barred employees from accessing the nation’s courts as a condition of employment (including whistleblower claims) it was all too Kafkaesque for me. (Citigroup and most Wall Street firms enforce a system called “mandatory arbitration” which moves all legal claims against the firms into an industry run forum which is not required to follow the law, legal precedent or issue a written decision, making an appeal to a court almost impossible.)

On April 17, 2001, some dodgy looking police would whisk me off the public sidewalk in front of Citigroup’s shareholder meeting at Carnegie Hall in New York City and throw me in jail for my high crime of peacefully attempting to hand out flyers highlighting Citigroup’s private justice system, Capital “Appreciation” Plan, and myriad abuses against women, minorities and society in general.

News media reported that shortly after my pesky personage was removed from the sidewalk, Citigroup’s shadow government (Board of Directors) emerged from their black limos: former President Gerald Ford; former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin; former CIA Director John Deutch. You can imagine my reaction on November 25, 2008 when the New York Post featured a photo spread of Citigroup’s Board of Directors (which included Rubin and Deutch) and a full front page titled “Citi of Fools.” The same issue carried an editorial urging an ouster of the Board (“Bounce These Bozo Bankers”) or perhaps a stronger remedy (“Off with their heads”).

The uproar at The Post was over a weekend confab that saw the Federal Reserve guarantee upwards of $300 billion of taxpayer money to bail out Citigroup for the second time in a month and a half. Of that amount, $20 billion was for a paltry equity stake for taxpayers when the whole company could have been bought for $20.5 billion at the prior Friday’s closing price, and that was $4.5 billion less than taxpayers had dumped into the company in October. (It’s not a good omen that the man who helped put this deal together, Tim Geithner, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, has been selected by President-elect Barack Obama to be the new U.S. Treasury Secretary; neither is it promising that Robert Rubin was standing at the elbow of the President-elect in his first press conference, signaling he’s a key advisor.)

What progressives need to focus on is that all of these private retirement accounts, IRAs, Roth IRAs and 401(k)s have one homogenous denominator: they are primarily invested in stocks and bonds of multinational companies that we in the progressive community frequently oppose on issues ranging from labor, environment or human rights degradation. Our own money is being deployed in opposition to our goals. We’re financing our own demise.

MORE AT LINK

And it looks like more and more of the same old same old.

Are tax cuts the only thing they know how to do in Washington? They're not going to do you much good, when you don't have a job.

Business tax cuts and throwing low wage earners five hundred bucks is not going to be a help to anyone in the not-rich class.

I agree, this doesn't sound as if there has been a change in government.

I have been a Debbie Downer. This is very uncharacteristic of me as I am personally an upbeat person. I am thinking only the most positive things about Obama administration. They will have to prove their worth.

Barack received money in record amounts most by small donors. He won straight out. He is beholding to only one special interest group......the American Public. We have trusted him. I think he is way smarter than me and I trust him to make wise decisions. I like that he has a variety of voices-but in the end I hope he remembers our interests and not the Democratic Party or his personal interest. I think he realizes that this office is a sacred trust (by his reaction to AF1). My arrows are sharp but my quiver is closed for a while.

It's the optimist in me.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=7922946

I got royally flamed in this thread, and I'll keep reposting it for the lurkers, because what I said back then about Obama's economy team nominees still stands.

It's the goddess-damned same old, same old, indeed, Dr.Phool. Same names, same policies AND THEY DIDN'T WORK THEN AND THEY WON'T WORK NOW.


:grr:




Tansy Gold, who should be workin' and isn't

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article21649.htm

January 05, 2009 "Information Clearinghouse" -- -The collective consciousness of the U.S. working class is on the brink of a profound transformation. We grew up being told that capitalism was the best of all possible systems, with apparent confirmation being supplied by the fall of the Soviet Union. But we are now entering a new reality that has the potential to overturn all the old, established assumptions perhaps, in the final analysis, even to overturn capitalism itself.

The U.S. government, which has been lecturing other countries for decades about the virtues of privatizing state-owned enterprises, has recently embarked on a campaign of reversing its own dictates by partially nationalizing many of the financial institutions that were teetering on the brink of disaster. In other words, the U.S. government became a stockholder in these companies, thereby ironically taking a step in the direction of socialism socializing their losses, that is, not their profits. Meanwhile, for decades, the U.S. working class has watched helplessly as public education has been defunded, the environment has been progressively destroyed, and social services in general have shriveled, all supposedly because no money was available to launch a rescue operation. Yet the breathtaking speed with which the government threw a staggering trillion-dollar bailout to the financial institutions with no strings attached has not been lost on
the working class. And more is on the way: the government has thus far pledged a total of $8.5 billion to help rescue the financial institutions. Workers, too, through their unions, are now demanding bailouts.

Policies that only yesterday appeared as irrevocable as acts of nature suddenly appear as they truly are: political decisions made by the federal government where Democrats and Republicans are united in their commitment to rescue their friends  the rich.

And fuel has been thrown on the fire. Recently, when asked for an account of how they spent the bailout funds, the financial institutions refused to oblige. After all, they calculated, why should they start becoming accountable to the U.S. public after all these centuries? This, too, has not been lost on the working class.

The working class also took notice of the modest but resounding victory scored by the United Electrical workers at the small windows and doors factory in Chicago. These workers did not have the advantage of working in a key industry so that if it were shut down, the reverberations would echo far and wide, thereby providing them with bargaining leverage. But they were emboldened by the outpouring of public support from across the country, and Bank of America, one of the most powerful banks in the world, backed down.

Finally, the working class was assured that the Great Depression would never see a second coming. Lessons had been learned and mechanisms were inserted to guarantee everlasting stability, we were told. All these assurances now look like more toxic assets, and working people will begin to draw the obvious conclusion: not only are recessions endemic to capitalism, but depressions are as well. And this realization will inevitably provoke questions about the desirability of capitalism itself.

MAJOR CUT HERE===SEE LINK


The Problem

People are a social species. We need each other, not only to satisfy our basic physical needs, but also to satisfy our deep-seated psychological needs. We need to be appreciated, loved, and enjoy the pleasures of friendship. Capitalism, however, directs people to look to the accumulation of wealth as the highest good so that each of us competes against the others for “success.”

While some material wealth is obviously necessary for survival and for a comfortable life, when wealth is promoted to the supreme good -- when people are valued on the basis of their income and not on the content of their character then human needs become subordinated to the accumulation of material things. Genuine needs are forsaken for artificial substitutes. Once people accept this premise, then they embark on a lonely, futile road. When the accumulation of wealth proves unfulfilling, then these unwitting victims pursue even more wealth, but fulfillment and satisfaction always seem to recede to a more distant horizon. In short, they become more like drug addicts, always identifying happiness with a bigger fix, but becoming progressively more miserable in the process.

Capitalism has placed us at a crossroads in history. Our planet can no longer sustain the hyper consumption that this economic system encourages. 70 percent of the U.S. economy has been dependent on consumption; without it, we slip into a recession. When there is a national disaster, we are encouraged to go shopping. Meanwhile, the environment is breaking down. If these tendencies are not checked, it will suffer irreversible damage.

We are not greedy to the core; greed is not the origin of capitalism but to a large part its effect. People are placed in structures in which greed and selfishness are rewarded. Hedge fund operators have walked away with tens of millions, sometimes hundreds of millions of dollars, and then successfully used their wealth to lobby Washington for low taxes. Meanwhile, teachers who are dedicated to helping everyone achieve their full potential must struggle to get by. Artists who want to make our world more beautiful, and us happier in the process, must struggle to get by. Hard-working maids and janitors must struggle to get by. People who do not like to compete but just want to do a good job must struggle to get by. But those who are only dedicated to money and themselves can indulge in every imaginable luxury.

If the environment were healthy and the rest of us had plenty, who would care? These money-obsessed fanatics could be dismissed as immature, self-absorbed and self-indulgent degenerates. But the irrationality and injustice becomes intolerable when this rapacious greed implies that millions of others will not have their basic needs met and the environment will be destroyed.

The Solution

Socialism is predicated on the premise that in order for society to operate in the interests of the majority, everyone must have both a voice and vote in democratically determining its direction. Instead of the economy being owned by a wealthy elite who run it entirely in their own interests while impoverishing billions of people around the world and destroying the environment, it would be placed in public hands. And its basic operating framework would then be determined by a public discussion, with all the relevant information available, followed by a debate and vote. In this way, the economy could be steered onto an entirely rational foundation so that its ability to serve the interests of ALL members of society would be maximized coupled with the recognition that our collective interests can only be served when the environment, which nurtures and sustains us, is healthy and vibrant.

Such a revolutionary transformation would represent a tremendous moral advance for humanity: the impulses of individual self-interest and greed would be replaced by a conscious commitment to defend the interests of everyone. Instead of the weak and frail being cast by the wayside to fend for themselves, society would redouble its efforts to ensure that their needs, too, were properly addressed. Instead of living by the uninspiring dictum, “Everyone for him or herself,” we would embrace the principle, “An injury to one is an injury to all” because, in the final analysis, the well-being of each individual is bound by millions of invisible threads to the well-being of all others.

Conclusion

The stakes are high. The U.S. working class will be reevaluating everything in these next years, and in particular the nature of the capitalist economy which runs most efficiently when wages and benefits are at rock bottom, or when workers can be replaced by machines and when unemployment is high. Although workers might not succeed in overthrowing capitalism during this profound economic crisis, their consciousness will emerge transformed. Capitalism will never again enjoy their unquestioning loyalty. If this crisis does not prove to be the end of capitalism, it will be the beginning of the end.

Ann Robertson is a writer for Workers Action (www.workerscompass.org), and can be reached at aroberts45@aol.com

Marking.

Remember the pompous fool who claimed that the estimates that unemployment after WWII would shoot to 20% were an example of intellectual stupidity of the "experts", or something to that nature?

And I commented that had women not been fired en masse, or if they had been counted as unemployed following their summary exit out the factory doors, unemployment would have been that or higher?

Well, consider today's economy, or poor excuse for one.

Even if all the manufacturing came home, would we have full employment? Technology has made productivity gains. Unless we provided a lot of "art" and culture type jobs that paid living wages, we'd probably still have able-bodied unemployed.


And what if one income were enough to keep a family alive? Would not also the divorce rate as well as the poverty rate decline? And if women and men were paid equally, then they could take turns, or each work half-time. Children could grow up in their own family, instead of daycare. Time and money pressures would ease, leading to less mental illness of the stress-generated kind. Homes would be small economic units producing quality of life, not major income drains requiring multiple services.

Home-making is a profession, and something this country desperately needs. Also community-building, electorate-developing, etc. In the rush for the dollar, our human needs were short-changed.

We cannot just give the economy a jolt of debt and expect the old model to crank over and crank back up to the giddy bubble days.

We need to rebuild the economy, a new ordering of work and reward, a better way to see that people are fed, clothed, sheltered and healthy. Because that's really what an economy is. Everything else is Madison Avenue fairy tale. Or Stephen King horror story.

Me thinks me smells a whiff of marxism on the breeze.



:evilgrin:


Tansy Gold

We may need to get back to some kind of basics in what a society needs to be healthy and sustainable. Rethink the models that have served us so badly in the last decades.

Thanks for posting that...

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 83.883 Change +1.284 (+1.65%)

January Seasonal Effect Favors Dollar Strength

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/January_Seasonal_Effect_Favors_Dollar_1231187809161.html

In this article, we argue that there is an interesting seasonal pattern affecting the US dollar’s exchange rate during the month of January. To some extent, the U.S. dollar has a tendency to rise during the month of January, particularly against the Japanese yen. In fact, over the past decade the U.S. dollar rallied against the Japanese yen during 7 out of the last 10 years. It is true that past returns are not indicative of future results. Yet, price patterns do form in the currency market and there are many different ways to incorporate seasonality into your trading.

US Dollar – Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)

The U.S. dollar appreciated against the Japanese yen in 20 out of the last 29 years, which is roughly 69 percent of the total sample. The seasonal effect was particularly strong during the 1999 to 2003 period. On average, the USD/JPY exchange rate gained 2.28 percent during the positive months and lost 2.72 percent during the negative months.



...more...

Euro Remains Under Pressure As Falling Inflation Adds Pressure For ECB Rate Cuts

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Euro_Remains_Under_Pressure_As_1231239961980.html

The Euro continue to remain under heavy selling pressure which was accelerated by the Euro-Zone CPI estimate slowing to 1.6% from 2.1% on the back of falling energy prices and waning demand. The Euro dropped nearly 300 bps falling below 1.3400 for the first time since December 15th as the inflation prediction beat estimates of 1.8%. Meanwhile, the final Euro-Zone service reading was revised slightly higher to 42.1 from the preliminary reading of 42.0, but contracted for a seventh month and despite the increase was the lowest reading on record.

The sharp fall in prices will raise deflation concerns which we saw yesterday has become a concern for the ECB. Therefore, expectations have grown that the central bank will lower their benchmark rate by another 25-50 bps at their January 15th meeting. Yet, Credit Suisse overnight index swaps saw a shape decline in expectations for rate cuts over the next twelve months to 65 bps from 153 bps on December 24th. Therefore, we may see the ECB signal an end to easing following another rate reduction which may see the single currency reverse its losses following the decision. Indeed, rising commodity prices on the back of an improved outlook for the global economy will alleviate some deflation concerns. However, expect the Euro to remain under pressure heading into the rate decision with it possibly targeting support at 1.2500.

The Pound traded higher despite choppy price action as weakening fundamental data and an expected rate cut have prevented a stronger bullish push. Indeed, the December Nationwide housing price gauge showed prices fell 2.5% which was the biggest drop since 1997 led to early Sterling weakness. The ever slumping housing sector has remained a burden for consumers and has sunk consumer confidence to an all time low of 47 in December. Meanwhile, the PMI service reading unexpectedly rose to 40.2 from 39.0 but still remained near a record low and the sector which accounts for the majority of growth in the country contracted for an eighth month. Despite the fundamental data suggesting an almost certain rate cut by the BoE, pound bulls haven’t been deterred leaving the possibility that a bottom may have been put in place at the December 31st low of 1.4351. A rate reduction could lead to another test of this price level, but beware of a subsequent reversal which tends to follow a rate change that is believed to be the final in a cycle.

The dollar remained mixed during overnight trading as it continues to gain against the Euro, Yen and Swiss Franc while losing ground against the Pound and Canadian Dollar. The upcoming ISM Non-manufacturing report may threaten bullish sentiment for the greenback as economists are predicting that the sector contracted further to set a fresh all-time low of 37.0 following November’s 37.3. Sharp declines in new orders led last month’s decline which may be a weighing factor for the sector that accounts for over 70% of GDP. Pending Home sales and factory orders for November will also present event risk as both are predicted to show further weakness. The deteriorating housing market and weak manufacturing sector were reasons cited by President –Elect Barack Obama for the proposed $710 billion in aide. The FOMC will also release their minutes from their last meeting where they lowered the benchmark interest rate to 0% -0.25%. Although the central bank doesn’t have room for more easing the minutes will give insights into the outlook for the economy. The MPC has recently taken up the cause to lower consumer borrowing costs which may include asking that TARP funds be used to purchase distressed assets as it was originally intended. The prospect of the U.S. consumer coming back on line may add longer term dollar support and an increase in risk appetite.

...more...

My head hurts more and more as I go down this thread....

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- U.S. stocks were set to open higher Tuesday ahead of new reports on services, home sales and manufacturing, and following announcements of job cuts.

....

Company job cuts: Cigna (CI, Fortune 500), a health benefits company, said Monday that is was cutting 1,100 jobs, or 4% of its total workforce, to save up to $40 million.

....

Logitech (LOGI), a maker of computer products, said Monday that it was cutting 15% of its salaried work force, without providing a total number of the cuts.

....

The Institute for Supply Management will issue its December report on the services sector. The index is seen declining to 37 from 37.3 in November, according to a consensus of economists surveyed by Briefing.com; such a level would signify contraction in the sector and recession in the economy.

The government will report on November factory orders, with a decline of 2.6% forecast in the Briefing.com consensus. That would be an improvement over the 5.1% plunge in October.

Also due are pending home sales for November from the National Association of Realtors.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/01/06/markets/stockswatch/?postversion=2009010606

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090106/ap_on_bi_ge/congress_madoff

WASHINGTON – Two more months of mortgage payments and retiree Allan Goldstein says he'll be broke, just another victim in what may be the biggest Ponzi scheme in history.

Goldstein, 76, was among the thousands of investors who trusted Wall Street figure Bernard Madoff with their money while counting on federal regulators to protect the investing public from fraud.

"Somewhere inside of me was the thought that this was a regulated industry. It wasn't. The warning flags were just pushed aside," Goldstein told a House panel Monday.

<snip>

"Clearly, our regulatory system ... failed miserably and we must rebuild it now," said Rep. Paul Kanjorski, D-Pa., who presided over the first congressional airing of the Madoff scandal.

In the Senate, Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd, D-Conn., and Sen. Richard Shelby of Alabama, the panel's senior Republican, announced that they have opened an investigation of the Madoff affair.

The Securities Investor Protection Corp. and the trustee handling the liquidation of Madoff's firm announced that they mailed more than 8,000 claim forms to customers on Friday.

...more...

bbuuuttt... remember how these "sophisticated" investors would always know everything!

Hedge Fund Regulation Is Ordered

October 27, 2004 in print edition C-1

A divided Securities and Exchange Commission voted Tuesday to impose new oversight on hedge funds, the fast-growing investments that have thrived in an unregulated marketplace.

The 3-2 vote capped a pointed debate in which Republican Chairman William H. Donaldson argued that the public would benefit from stronger federal regulation of the funds, some of which played key roles in trading abuses involving mutual funds.

Donaldson, backed by the SEC’s two Democratic commissioners, said regulators didn’t know enough about these funds. Hedge funds have traditionally catered to wealthy, sophisticated investors, but industry experts say employee pension systems are increasingly investing in them too – giving middle-class workers a stake in how they are managed.

It “would be a major dereliction of the commission’s responsibility” not to monitor hedge funds, Donaldson said.

The funds, which are believed to hold $870 billion in assets, often employ aggressive and risky strategies, such as betting on whether a stock will lose value in the future, in hopes of big returns. Typically, the minimum investment is $1 million.

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, Treasury Secretary John W. Snow and some members of Congress have argued that oversight isn’t necessary for an industry catering to an elite clientele well aware of any risks.

...more...

For sixteen years red flags were popping up around Madoff's business practices. Yet the SEC only found minor irregularities after investigating Madoff eight times.

Of course, Greenspan and later, John Snow, would run interference for the entire hedge fund industry. Culpability can justly be shoveled far, wide and thick. If Greenscam, for one, protected the hedge fund industry repeatedly for many years with as much personal credibility and physical wind as his dessicated voice could muster - then it raises the questions: what did he know and when did he know it? Was Greenscam truly this ignorant of the biggest heist in U.S. history?

A number of people including myself have asked this question. I found an article asking the same thing and a couple of the comments offer a possible explanation. If correct, their answer argues that it was indeed fraud and not just the collapse of another hedge fund.

"How Bernie (Made-Off) with 50 Large
All $ in Billions
Start in 1995 getting $1.0 from the rubes and increase that by 18%/year. Accrue negative gains of -5% and report positive gains of 15%. Allow rube withdrawals of 20%/year of average balance. Bernie gets an 8% commission on each incoming dollar and spends it. In fall 2008 have emergency withdrawals of $7.0.

Bernie has his properties if they are not mortgaged and $.05 in chump change.

What’s left for the crows: $1.9
Posted By Jack Mason Portland, OR"

"The scheme unraveled because he ran out of money and it’s no great leap of logic to understand why.

While the Madoff scandal is a $50 billion Ponzi scheme, we’ll discover investors put in about 1/10th of that amount. Through the magic of compound interest, your $1M initial investment becomes $9.4M after twenty years of 12.5% annualized returns.
Each year, most investors let their gains roll-over while some took money out. When the money was withdrawn, your initial investment was used to pay someone else even if that was just a portion of their yearly capital gains. Since his returns were so high, small withdrawals would have huge impacts on the available cash. Furthermore, to avoid suspicion, when Madoff either kicked someone out or they decided to leave, the investor left with their full account and that’s where the cash went. As funds of funds needed to cash to meet their Q4 2008 redemptions, Maddoff’s cash hoard of maybe 5% of the actual amount soon unraveled. That’s why there’s nothing left. Barring the bear market, he’d still be a genius. We’ll learn later this almost happened during previous market corrections.

I’m sure he spent a lot, but the guy’s a psychopath who fed on the reinforcement and social proof of his success. Once he got started it was probably impossible to stop; it wasn’t the money. The whole situation is a Greek tragedy. His gains helped finance enormous acts of charity while he destroyed the lives of his friends.
Posted By Jake, NYC"

From - A simple question for Madoff watchers

http://stanleybing.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2008/12/23/a-simple-question-for-madoff-watchers/

Like (a few) others, I've been asking too where did the money go. And I've wondered, too, if some of it was never there to begin with. Rather like the Enron 401k accounts that were fat with bloated Enron stock, maybe a portion of what was "lost" to Madoff's scheme was money he himself "created" on paper.

So, big-dollar, sophisticated Mr. Investor puts $10m into Bernie's hands and Bernie puffs it up with interest over the years to $100m. The POOF! it's gone. But it's not $100m that's gone; it's only $10m. And if some of that was withdrawn over the years, then the total sum lost is even less.

I don't think Bernie had a real good grasp on reality. We may find out he even lied about how much he "lost."



Tansy Gold, who didn't lose anything; she just, um, mislaid it

but this feels like the right answer.

If it is, it's also likely that:

1. It was indeed a fraud/Ponzi scheme and investors may be partially covered via the Securities Industry Protection Corporation (SIPC).

2. The $50 billion figure is vastly overstated if one counts the original investment and not the fictitious earnings (though even 1/10th of that is still a lot of money).

Pending home sales plunge to record low
Slumping stocks, economy made buyers put purchases on hold


BREAKING NEWS
updated 31 minutes ago

WASHINGTON - The National Association of Realtors says pending home sales fell to the lowest level on record in November, as the plummeting stock market and faltering economy caused buyers to put their purchases on hold.

The trade group said Tuesday its seasonally adjusted index of pending sales for existing homes fell 4 percent to 82.3 from a downwardly revised October reading of 85.7 in October.

That’s worse than the reading of 88 that economists expected, according to a survey by Thomson Reuters.

(snip)
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28521496/

http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2008/fortune/0812/gallery.parloff_quotes.fortune/index.html


Other quotes listed from other players.

Color me skeptical. Does anyone think any of these guys will be held accountable, no matter much the public screams?

A lovely tropical vacation for these pirates.

If we run out of space, we could probably lease Devils Island.

Appointment vacancies still exist at:

- Mariana Trench
- Antarctica
- Mars
- The Sun

Highlights

Current:

Loonie: Toronto Stock Exchange:

30-day and 90-day vs.greenback:



30-day vs. Euro, Yen, UK Pound and Swiss Franc




Currency Comparison: http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Detailed analysis: http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD

Up-to-the-minute graph: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CD.Y%24%24&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=1

Historical values http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2008-11-24 Monday, November 24 0.816593 USD
2008-11-25 Tuesday, November 25 0.818733 USD
2008-11-26 Wednesday, November 26 0.810504 USD
2008-11-27 Thursday, November 27 0.810504 USD
2008-11-28 Friday, November 28 0.809061 USD
2008-12-01 Monday, December 1 0.808407 USD
2008-12-02 Tuesday, December 2 0.805023 USD
2008-12-03 Wednesday, December 3 0.795355 USD
2008-12-04 Thursday, December 4 0.797448 USD
2008-12-05 Friday, December 5 0.770951 USD
2008-12-08 Monday, December 8 0.795545 USD
2008-12-09 Tuesday, December 9 0.793525 USD
2008-12-10 Wednesday, December 10 0.796622 USD
2008-12-11 Thursday, December 11 0.820951 USD
2008-12-12 Friday, December 12 0.803019 USD
2008-12-15 Monday, December 15 0.809717 USD
2008-12-16 Tuesday, December 16 0.817127 USD
2008-12-17 Wednesday, December 17 0.829325 USD
2008-12-18 Thursday, December 18 0.835981 USD
2008-12-19 Friday, December 19 0.814797 USD
2008-12-22 Monday, December 22 0.820479 USD
2008-12-23 Tuesday, December 23 0.822368 USD
2008-12-24 Wednesday, December 24 0.824742 USD
2008-12-25 Thursday, December 25 0.824742 USD
2008-12-26 Friday, December 26 0.819202 USD
2008-12-29 Monday, December 29 0.822233 USD
2008-12-30 Tuesday, December 30 0.818666 USD
2008-12-31 Wednesday, December 31 0.816993 USD
2009-01-02 Friday, January 2 0.818438 USD
2009-01-05 Monday, January 5 0.824402 USD

Current values

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

Market            Open   High    Low   Last  Change    Pct Time
CD.Y$$ Cash     0.8405 0.8501 0.8405 0.8501 +0.0091 +1.08% 10:01 
CD.H09 Mar 2009 0.8416 0.8464 0.8409 0.8464 +0.0057 +0.68% 09:38 
CD.M09 Jun 2009 0.7792 0.7792 0.7792 0.8418 +0.0168 +2.00% set 15:08 
CD.U09 Sep 2009 0.8280 0.8290 0.8280 0.8435 +0.0169 +2.00% set 15:08 
CD.Z09 Dec 2009 0.8200 0.8200 0.8200 0.8444 +0.0165 +1.95% set 15:08 
CD.H10 Mar 2010 0.8800 0.8800 0.8800 0.8452 +0.0165 +1.95% set 15:08 
CD.M10 Jun 2010 0.8459 0.8459 0.8459 0.8459 +0.0165 +1.95% set 15:08 
 

Other combinations: (http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies)

Market          Open    High    Low     Last    Change   Pct 
AUSTRALIAN $/CANADIAN $ (CME:ACD)
ACD.H09 Mar 2009 0.8454 0.8454 0.8454 0.8454 -0.0121 -1.43%  
BRITISH POUND/US$ (SMALL) (NYBOT:MP)
MP.H09.E Mar 2009 (E) 1.4499 1.4638 1.4498 1.4638 -0.0070 -0.48%   
EURO/BRITISH POUND (NYBOT:GB)
GB.H09.E Mar 2009 (E) 0.9189 0.9189 0.9189 0.9189 -0.0047 -0.51%     
EURO/JAPANESE YEN (NYBOT:EJ)
EJ.H09.E Mar 2009 (E) 127.700 127.700 126.080 126.310 -1.025 -0.81%     
EURO/US$ (SMALL) (NYBOT:EO)
EO.H09.E Mar 2009 (E) 1.34410 1.34410 1.33020 1.33680 -0.02055 -1.52%   

Blather (from http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

The March Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends Monday's rally above the 10-day moving average crossing at 82.58. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off December's low, the 38% retracement level of the May-December decline crossing at 86.29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.87 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 84.55. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 86.29. First support is the 10- day moving average crossing at 82.59. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.87.

Analysis

"Junior" oil companies in Calgary are apparently in trouble due to the falling oil prices. They pick up business the larger companies can't be bothered with or do little jobs for them.

Car sales are so bad here the advertising has gone completely amok. I heard an ad over the weekend saying if you bought such-and-such Ford, they'd sell you an F150 or a subcompact for $1.

Two of my neighbors bought new ones right before X-mas. One is retired, and the other is semi-retired, part-time self employed.

The neighborhood dealer said that he just finished one of his best years. Go figure. I tried to sell mine a couple of years ago, and got zero bites. I figured I might as well keep it.

Now I just finished washing it (and the Fudd) and I'm going to jump on it (the bike), and spend some quality time with my favorite barmaid.

See y'all later.

Just got a 4-week notice my contract is terminated at the end of this month.

There are apparently some opportunities the company I work through is going to submit my resume to but nothing is guaranteed, obviously. I thought I was pretty safe being the only person at this plant with knowledge of one of the systems but they're moving support to a plant in Central America. Sales are off noticeably and they have to cut costs.


2009 - The Year of Adventure

That was my motto New Year's Eve. It sure got...adventurous!

I hope you land solidly on both feet soon.

:grouphug:

Hope you find something quickly.

You have company here with this experience, past and present, so do not be shy about communicating your condition. I have met some generous DUers who are willing and able to help with the networking process. Just let us know what you need.

Your comment gave me an idea. Can we have some job seeker board here where people can brain storm. I would rather have a DU'er in the cubical net door. Would the mods consider a trial balloon?

Another board I frequented long ago did something like that.

Awesome idea!

I have seen job seekers post in their respective state's forum. But there are fifty states forums - not very convenient one-stop shopping. How does the process get started? There is a way to get it done. Email?
:shrug:

and ask them to consider adding it. They can do a survey of the DU'rs and see if it has appeal-I am sure it will because I have seen other threads where DU'rs talk about being out of work.

Since you do the SWT, I think you might have a little more influence than Roland or I. I think it is a great idea. You never know who knows who. We all have our areas of expertise.

Some folks want to stay in their state but some people might move but at least people can brain storm and cheer each other along and not feel so isolated. When other DU's get ideas, leads, opportunities, or tips they can post in the employment (multi levels and scams etc can be exposed). Folks can ask questions about other areas and not go into something blind.

I think, with a few ground rules-it can be another nice feature.

Should the forum be established then I will post a permalink to it on the SMW main page.

this truly is the most savvy and, dare I say it, the most trustworthy of any board I've ever been on.

You're one of the good guys. They always win, right? :)

They don't know the high quality of the worker they'll be losing.

:/

You've been canned more than a tomato. Well, you did good the last time, let's hope it happens again. OK, You know the drill-pm me if you need too. Do I cross my fingers or is it my legs:think: I love you but this street corner is mine.:spray:

I wish there were something we could do - we can give a great recommendation for how very smart and savvy you are!

:grouphug:

I'm about to take a test online for the company I work thru and then dust off the resume. There's a place they want to submit my name and I'm guessing an interview could be setup in a matter of days. There are many good things about this one particular place that would be a great match for me but I'm certainly not going to hold my breath.

We shall see!

:thumbsup:

your teeth for spinich. Knock em dead.:rofl:

:spray:

good luck, my friend

WSJ breaking news. No story yet.

http://financialweek.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20090106/REG/901069989/1036



And I'll bet you'd find more entrepreneurs willing to start their own businesses.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aty4gEh9wups&refer=home

"These corporate swine have inspired communist revolutions all over the globe."

It's not the Commies, you dumb fucks. It's you. You privileged, self-centered, entitled bastards, who think you have the divine right of kings, who fuel animosity, hatred for your ilk, and inspire revolutions.

It's well past time to pass out those severance packages. You know the ones I'm talking about.

Get your FR Severance Packages right here....

executives selling apples from a cart-offering to slice them for you with their mini FR Severance Packages.

a FR Severance Packages to sever this double post.

Dow 9,015.10 Up 62.21 (0.69%)
Nasdaq 1,652.38 Up 24.35 (1.50%)
S&P 500 934.70 Up 7.25 (0.78%)
10-Yr Bond 2.505% Up 0.017
NYSE Volume 6,097,687,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,183,896,500

4:30 pm : Stocks were up as much as 1.8% before the latest batch of economic data triggered a round of selling pressure. The major indices were able to finish the see-saw session with marked gains, but off their session highs.

November factory orders fell 4.6%. They were expected to decline 2.3% after falling 6.0% in October.

November home sales were down 4.0% month-over-month, which is worse than the 1.0% decline that was widely forecast. Sales were down 4.2% in the prior month.

Bucking the trend of worse-than-expected data, the December ISM Service Index came in at 40.6, which was better than the consensus estimate of 36.5. The reading was also up from a multiyear low of 37.5.

In other economic news, the minutes from the Dec. 16 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting indicated there was significant contraction in economic activity during the fourth quarter, and downside risk to growth remains. Unemployment is expected to rise significantly into 2010.

The FOMC noted it stands ready to expand purchases of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities; it is also evaluating the potential benefits of purchasing longer-term Treasuries.

Stocks slipped in the wake of the announcement, but found support when they tested afternoon lows. The re-emergence of buyers paired with the realization that the FOMC's comments didn't really tell the market anything new helped stocks ascend to their best levels of the afternoon.

However, the stock market was unable to eclipse its session high and drifted lower to finish the session with a 0.8% gain.

Cyclical plays were among the strongest gainers.

Tech topped the other economic sectors by advancing 3.0% with help from large-cap holdings like Microsoft (MSFT 20.76, +0.24) and Hewlett Packard (HPQ 39.31, +2.98). Other large-cap tech names helped the Nasdaq outperform the other headline indices.

Materials (+1.9%) advanced with help from Mosaic (MOS 38.56, +0.89). Mosaic posted better-than-expected quarterly earnings results but ran into some pressure when it indicated during its conference call it is seeing a tight supply chain. Meanwhile, Dow Chemical (DOW 16.05, +1.00) indicated it will seek to enforce its rights regarding a failed business agreement with a Kuwaiti petrochemical outfit.

Consumer discretionary stocks (+1.8%) and industrials (+1.6%) also outpaced the broader market.

Energy was a leader early on, gaining as much as 3.0%, but it finished just 0.5% higher as oil prices pared early gains to close just above the unchanged mark at $48.85 per barrel. Oil was up as much as 3.4%.

Financials (+1.9%) were the only other economic sector to post a gain. Its advance came in the face of a warning from Bank of America (BAC 14.28, +0.30) chief executive Ken Lewis that 2008 results are expected to be below Wall Street's expectations. Bank of America isn't scheduled to announce its quarterly results until later this month.DJ30 +62.21 NASDAQ +24.35 NQ100 +1.0% R2K +1.9% SP400 +1.6% SP500 +7.25 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2013/2.19 bln/758 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2461/1.34 bln/681