STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday May 1

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday May 1, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Under Indictment = 2
Financial Sector Officials Under Indictment = 0
Financial Sector Officials In Prison = 2

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON April 30, 2009

Dow... 8,168.12 -17.61 (-0.22%)
Nasdaq... 1,717.30 +5.36 (+0.31%)
S&P 500... 872.81 -0.83 (-0.10%)
Gold future... 891.20 -9.30 (-1.04%)
30-Year Bond 4.04% +0.02 (+0.45%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.12% +0.03 (+0.90%)

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

Handy Links

Economic Calendar    Marketwatch Data    Bloomberg Economic News    LayoffDaily    The Big Picture    Yahoo! Finance    Google Finance    Financial Sense    Calculated Risk    Naked Capitalism    Credit Writedowns    Brad DeLong    Bonddad    Atrios    LegitGov    Open Government    Earmark Database    goldmansachs666

---

Read more: du

“Everyone stumbles over the truth from time to time, but most people just pick themselves up and hurry off as though nothing ever happened." -- Winston Churchill

We seem to be at an interesting juncture in market psychology.

The long always cheerleaders are still out in full force, urging everyone to buy, buy, buy. But they always say that, so we have learned to filter out the noise of perpetual optimism.

At the other end of the spectrum there is now a famous club of “bear” commentators who called the downturn a couple of years ago and are now continuing to receive significant media attention with dire predictions of untold doom yet to come.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

---

Vague. Really vague.

How about a new assessment for the SMWEI folks? It's the end of the week.

My sense points to a -5.6 on the scale.

We're definitely seeing some retrenchment of the consumer. Indications of a "new normal" are starting to emerge. See... I can be vague just like Ms. Park. Now where's my paycheck? :sarcasm:

I mean... Over the last day we've learned that the Senate loves bank lobbyists more than the voters/taxpayers with the killing of the Mortgage bill... and that getting the flu of 2009 might even be good for you.

That's got to be optimism!

How lucky we are to live in the best democracy money can buy. While we're here, how much is that Tamiflu going to cost? And how much of the profit will be directed to Rumsfeld's legal defense fund?

*sigh*

That article I posted yesterday about Rumsfeld raking in millions from Tamiflu, was removed by the mod.
:shrug:

note that a different mod failed to see it in the editorials forum, look for Flying Pigs

They take a while to get the hang of it.

Hugin's comment is the first I heard of it. Dammit, this is big.

From LA Times: Mortgage reduction bill fails in Senate - Banks lobbied heavily against the measure to help homeowners facing foreclosure.

By Janet Hook, May 1, 2009

Reporting from Washington -- The financial services industry is in trouble over its role in crashing the world economy, but that doesn't mean its lobbyists have lost all their muscle on Capitol Hill. Exhibit A: The Senate delivered a stinging rebuff to President Obama and consumer advocates Thursday by rejecting a measure to help homeowners facing foreclosure. The vote was 51 to 45, with 12 Democrats joining Republicans in opposing the proposal, under which bankruptcy judges could order lenders to reduce the principal on home mortgages. The proposal, which sailed through the House in March, was a key part of Obama's plan to reduce the tide of home foreclosures.

Its defeat in the Senate marked a turnaround for the Democratic supporters of the bill, who had hoped that the party's new majority would boost its chances for passage. Instead, Democratic leaders were furious to see bankers lobbying against consumer protection measures after Congress had approved enormous sums to shore up the financial services industry. "I am sick and tired of being asked to give billions to these banks," said Senate Democratic Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), who threatened to oppose any further industry bailouts. "If they have no sympathy for homeowners facing foreclosure, I don't have any sympathy for them."

More at: http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-cramdown1-2009may01,0,6175308.story

------------

And here's some news on it from Bloomberg: Senate Mortgage ‘Cram-Down’ Bill Headed to Defeat as Banks Balk

By Margaret Chadbourn

April 30 (Bloomberg) -- Senate legislation letting bankruptcy judges cut mortgage terms to help borrowers was headed to defeat as a half dozen Democrats were opposed or undecided and major U.S. banks broke off talks on a compromise. Senate Richard Durbin of Illinois, sponsor of so-called cram-down legislation, said today “months and months of heroic efforts” with banks and credit unions succeeded in winning one industry supporter: New York-based Citigroup Inc. “I can’t tell you how many banks have walked away,” Durbin, the Senate’s second-ranking Democrat, said as debate began on the measure, which would amend a housing bill. The House passed its version 234-191 on March 5.

The Obama administration made the cram-down provision part of a plan targeting 9 million homeowners to help modify or refinance their mortgages. The industry has opposed a bankruptcy role in foreclosures since Durbin introduced it in 2007, and succeeded last year in killing the proposal from a housing bill.

Senator Thomas Carper, a Delaware Democrat, said in debate today he opposed the bill. Democrats Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, Ben Nelson of Nebraska and Jon Tester of Montana plan to oppose Durbin’s proposal, Huffington Post said this week. The measure needs 60 votes and Democrats hold 59 seats, after Republican Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania switched parties this week.

link: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aJ_sqd73P0Wk&refer=us

------------

This hurts. I thought this program was actually going to do some good, more good than TARP, and for a tenth of the cost. Saving 9 million homeowners from foreclosure would go a long way toward addressing the root cause of the mortgage crisis, the toxic assets in mortgage backed securities, and falling house prices.

The big banks lobbied hard against this bill. They hate the "cram-down" idea, where bankruptcy judges can force refinancing of mortgages with more reasonable terms. But maybe they also hate the idea of relief going to the little people and want another round of bailouts, at ten times the cost to taxpayers of a mortgage relief bill. Bastards!

here seems to be a lull in the downward action, and the propaganda has been really heavy this week. And knowing the mess, that's just around the bend.....

I'm going to call it a -6.5. Getting ready to fall out the window when all of this auto industry stuff hits in the coming weeks.

Next month, we get Alt-A, and commercial real estate, with much worse than expected unemployment.

By lowering expectations the last few weeks, and proclaiming daily that "Things weren't as bad as expected", hinting that we're ready for a rebound, they've really set them selves up for the "Oh Shit" moment.

I recall a snippet I read in Flying Magazine a few years back. The did a study of cockpit voice recorders from planes that had crashed. In something like 98% of the recorders analyzed, the last two words on them were, "Oh Shit". The moment of truth had arrived.

Yes, new unemployment claims are high and continuing claims are very high.

I'm still sorting through that cool data tool at Google Ozy posted yesterday.

Could he have been co-opted? Or is there something we don't see? Mass hypnosis, perhaps?

He seems to think that Obama is doing the right things, but there are problems.

http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/256541/i_am_not_dr_doom_i_am_dr_realist_interview_with_newsweek_and_washington_post

I gave you my observation, buy Ford at $1.50 a share. About to hit the 6 spot any day now. During our Thanksgiving get together my Bil was whining he lost 100k in his mutual funds, I suggested He buy Ford stock, he laughed at me. He is a retired Ford salesman.

I had been looking at GM. But they look like they intend to trade a huge fraction of equity for debt relief, one way or another. That means shareholders are being forced to bail the company out. I have mixed feelings about the justice/injustice of that. And it means GM stock doesn't look like a good investment. Ford looks like it will get through this recession without bankruptcy, a bailout, nor trading equity for debt. Plus the Chrysler bankruptcy will cost Chrysler market share. And a GM bankruptcy or reorganization will likely cost them market share. Ford should get some of those sales, at least from customers determined to buy American. I'm thinking it may still be a good investment.

But damn, I wish I had taken your advice back then. Now, confess, did you take your own advice and make a little profit?

Im living on a fixed income, SSD and can barely feed myself. Just sometimes I get these gut feelings and I share those gut feelings.

09:55 Mich Sentiment-Rev Apr
Briefing.com 64.0
Consensus 61.9
Prior 61.9

10:00 Factory Orders Mar
Briefing.com -0.4%
Consensus -0.6%
Prior 1.8%

10:00 ISM Index Apr
Briefing.com 39.5
Consensus 38.4
Prior 36.3

14:00 Auto Sales Apr
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior 3.3M

14:00 Truck Sales Apr
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior 3.8M

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

01. U.S. April ISM index 40.1% vs. 36.3% March
10:00 AM ET, May 01, 2009

02. U.S. April ISM expectations were 39.0%
10:00 AM ET, May 01, 2009

03. UMichigan consumer sentiment up to 65.1 in April
9:59 AM ET, May 01, 2009

04. April UMichigan sentiment above 62 expected
9:59 AM ET, May 01, 2009

me wants crack, too!

SINGAPORE – Oil prices fell below $51 a barrel Friday in Asia as investors clung to a month-long trading range amid uncertainty about when the global economy may emerge from a severe recession.

Benchmark crude for June delivery was down 58 cents to $50.54 a barrel by afternoon in Singapore, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract Thursday gained 15 cents to settle at $51.12.

Trading volume was light in Asia as markets in mainland China, Hong Kong, India, Malaysia, South Korea, Thailand and Singapore were closed for holidays.

....

On Thursday, a Commerce Department report said consumer spending fell more than expected, dropping 0.2 percent in March. And incomes were also down by 0.3 percent as waves of layoffs made their way through the economy.

....

In other Nymex trading, gasoline for June delivery rose 0.80 cent to $1.46 a gallon and heating oil was steady at $1.33 a gallon. Natural gas for June delivery was steady at $3.38 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

HOUSTON – R. Allen Stanford, accused by federal regulators in a civil complaint of running an $8 billion investment fraud, tried to turn himself in to federal marshals in Houston on Thursday, but they didn't take him into custody because no warrant has been issued for him.

The Houston Chronicle reported in its online edition that Stanford and his lawyer marched the few blocks from attorney Dick DeGuerin's office to the federal courthouse to "surrender."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090501/ap_on_bi_ge/us_stanford_surrender

When and if the real thing hits they'll find him cowering in a pup-tent or checked into a seedy hourly rate 'motel'.

He'll know when the jig is up when all of his high priced lawyers suddenly "Have somewhere else to be." and a public defender shows up.

I picture him as the Scarlet O'Hara type.

Edit: These ultra alpha male personalities always seem strained, forced to fit a cultivated persona. I expect him to cower and seek shelter in the most extraordinary fashion.

Note to all of our very honest and law abiding Transgendered and Stimulation Different friends out there: Here we are implying that Stanford would go to the extreme of hiding in the guise of dressing as a member of the opposite gender and that being the type of person he has shown to be, it would be an EXTREME guise.

His demonstrated inclination for deception has no limits. This man is bereft of honesty.

"Please, arrest me!"
"I sorry, sir, we can't. We have no arrest warrant for you."
"Well, you will have. Arrest me now! Now, now, now, now, now, now, now!

Easy come, easy go, will you arrest me now?
Bismillah! No, we will not arrest you now.
(Arrest him now!) Bismillah! We will not arrest you now.
(Arrest him now!) Bismillah! We will not arrest you now.
(Arrest me now!) Will not arrest you now.
(Arrest me now!) Will not arrest you now. (Arrest me now!)
No, no, no, no, no, no, no!
(Oh mama mia, mama mia) Mama mia, arrest me now.
Bernie Madoff has a devil put aside for me, for me, for me!

DETROIT/WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Chrysler LLC filed for bankruptcy on Thursday and announced an industry-changing deal with Fiat, after being pummeled by sliding auto sales and unable to reach agreement on restructuring its debt.

Despite weeks of intense negotiations, Chrysler failed to gain full support from its lenders to avoid the first-ever bankruptcy filing by a major U.S. automaker.

The move was hailed by President Barack Obama as a critical step in saving 30,000 jobs at Chrysler, majority-owned by Cerberus Capital Group, and hundreds of thousands more jobs at affiliated suppliers and dealers.

At the same time, Chrysler entered an expected alliance with Fiat SpA, in which the Italian carmaker was given an initial stake of 20 percent.

The deal will allow Fiat to own up to 35 percent as it makes investments in U.S. operations and small-car technology for Chrysler. Over time, Fiat could eventually own 51 percent after Chrysler has repaid its loans to the U.S. Treasury.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090501/bs_nm/us_autos1

Many plants had to close early because part suppliers stopped shipping parts. Afraid they might not get paid, the suppliers tried to lessen their exposure by halting the shipments. At some Chrysler assembly plants, they suddenly shut down the line in the middle of the afternoon because they just ran out of parts. Chrysler plants may remain closed until the "speedy surgical" bankruptcy is over. It may be difficult to get everything running again. There are a lot of parts in a car. A shortage of one type shuts down the whole assembly line.

Just-in-time inventory systems make this kind of response almost instantaneous. Back in olden times, they would have had a stockpile of parts that would have kept the lines running for days.

In other Chrysler news, Perella Weingerg Partners, one of the 3 funds that held out and forced the bankruptcy, now says they will take the deal offered to them. Oppenheimer and Stairway Capital have remained silent. I'm still hoping the 3 of them suffer for causing the bankruptcy. It will hurt all the other creditors. Therefore the 3 should make it up to the others by taking less. Hell, they should have to pay for the loss in market share Chrysler will inevitably suffer.

How can this be?

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/30/business/30uaw.html?_r=1

snip> "According to restructuring plans proposed this week, THE UNION WILL HAVE OVER HALF THE STOCK in Chrysler and a third of General Motors, meaning it will have tremendous influence, with the government, in determining the future of the companies." <unsnip

:shrug:

Just wondering. . . . . . .

from December '08
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/12/09/lee-iacocca-us-auto-execs_n_149665.html

DETROIT — Lee Iacocca, the man who led Chrysler through a government bailout in the late 1970s, says the CEOs of Detroit's automakers should not be forced to quit as a condition of getting government loans.

Iacocca, Chrysler's retired chairman and chief executive, said in a statement Tuesday that now is not the time to make executive changes, as suggested by Senate Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd, D-Conn.

"Having been there, I do not agree with the sentiment now coming out of Congress that the management should be changed as a condition of granting loans to the Detroit automakers," Iacocca said. "You don't change coaches in the middle of a game, especially when things are so volatile."

"Don't make me come up there!"

and

"Hey, you kids! Get off my lawn!"

(A big drop in the real part of the debt, the part we owe to others. And edau the first of mai. Good may-day to all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,851,477,439,024.13 + 4,301,444,975,364.15
DOWN 34,727,762,120.64 + DOWN 6,689,246,797.05

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 306-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.27 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.8, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 14 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of this report, there should be 306,257,915 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html
Currently, each of these American's owe $36,416.76.
A family of three owes $109,250.29. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 33 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 4,668,187,113.01.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,578,943,453.31.
The average for the last 33 days would be 3,253,584,957.55.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 69 reports in 99 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging -0.20B$ per report, -0.03B$/day so far.
There were 144 reports in 211 days of FY2009 averaging 7.83B$ per report, 5.35B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,362 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.0 and 18.4T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
04/29/2009 11,152,922,414,388.28 BHO (UP 526,045,365,475.20 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,128,197,517,475.80 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
04/08/2009 +000,050,639,456.95 ------------*******
04/09/2009 +024,055,285,655.59 ------------**********
04/10/2009 +000,051,156,797.54 ------------*******
04/13/2009 +000,309,440,014.97 ------------******** Mon
04/14/2009 +000,167,862,523.71 ------------********
04/15/2009 +044,205,591,028.33 ------------**********
04/17/2009 -038,696,374,097.81 -
04/20/2009 +000,193,620,436.16 ------------******** Mon
04/21/2009 -000,363,758,089.93 ---
04/22/2009 +000,051,738,680.14 ------------*******
04/23/2009 -012,857,484,009.95 -
04/24/2009 -000,133,239,400.23 ---
04/27/2009 +000,285,896,492.06 ------------******** Mon
04/28/2009 +000,154,949,620.57 ------------********
04/29/2009 -034,727,762,120.64 -

-17,252,437,012.54 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,488,290,611,129.21 in last 223 days.
That's 1,488B$ in 223 days.
More than any year ever, including last year, and it's 146% of that highest year ever only in 223 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 223 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3855306&mesg_id=3855336

(A big rise in the debt after previous report's drop netting about a 45B$ rise.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,930,824,942,975.56 + 4,307,767,198,983.08
UP 79,347,503,951.43 + UP 6,322,223,618.93

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 306-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.27 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.8, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 14 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of this report, there should be 306,264,086 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html
Currently, each of these American's owe $36,695.76.
A family of three owes $110,087.27. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 8,478,398,316.51.
The average for the last 30 days would be 6,500,105,375.99.
The average for the last 31 days would be 6,290,424,557.41.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 70 reports in 100 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 0.34B$ per report, 0.35B$/day so far.
There were 145 reports in 212 days of FY2009 averaging 8.37B$ per report, 5.73B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,361 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.1 and 19.8T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
04/30/2009 11,238,592,141,958.64 BHO (UP 611,715,093,045.56 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,213,867,245,046.20 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
04/09/2009 +024,055,285,655.59 ------------**********
04/10/2009 +000,051,156,797.54 ------------*******
04/13/2009 +000,309,440,014.97 ------------******** Mon
04/14/2009 +000,167,862,523.71 ------------********
04/15/2009 +044,205,591,028.33 ------------**********
04/17/2009 -038,696,374,097.81 -
04/20/2009 +000,193,620,436.16 ------------******** Mon
04/21/2009 -000,363,758,089.93 ---
04/22/2009 +000,051,738,680.14 ------------*******
04/23/2009 -012,857,484,009.95 -
04/24/2009 -000,133,239,400.23 ---
04/27/2009 +000,285,896,492.06 ------------******** Mon
04/28/2009 +000,154,949,620.57 ------------********
04/29/2009 -034,727,762,120.64 -
04/30/2009 +079,347,503,951.43 ------------**********

62,044,427,481.94 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,573,960,338,699.57 in last 224 days.
That's 1,574B$ in 224 days.
More than any year ever, including last year, and it's 155% of that highest year ever only in 224 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 224 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3857096&mesg_id=3857126

WASHINGTON – Propelled through the House by antibusiness sentiment in tough economic times, legislation putting new reins on the credit card industry now goes to the Senate, where the bill's prospects appear promising.

The legislation, which has President Barack Obama's backing, would eliminate abrupt increases in interest rates and other practices decried by consumer advocates. It could be taken up in the Senate as early as next week.

Supporters want to get a final congressional package to Obama's desk by the Memorial Day holiday. They acknowledged, though, that House passage of the measure on Thursday was just an opening salvo and that industry interests could succeed in getting restrictions weakened during the legislative slog ahead.

....

The bill would prohibit so-called double-cycle billing and retroactive rate hikes and would prevent companies from giving credit cards to anyone under 18.

If they become law, the new House provisions won't take effect for a year, except for a requirement that customers get 45 days' notice before their interest rates are increased. That would take effect in 90 days.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090501/ap_on_go_co/us_congress_credit_cards

For example take the student loan provisions:

· Limit credit lines for student’s without a co-signer.

· Permit students to receive a starter credit card with a lower credit limit, allowing increases over time if prompt payments have been made.

· Require creditors to obtain a proof of income, income history, and credit history from college students before approving credit applications.

· Limit students with no verifiable income to one credit card.

· Require parents to agree in writing to increases in the credit limit of cards which they have co-signed.


Nothing there at all to stop the majority of bad banking practices which have gotten students into so much trouble.

This is the starting point for the bill which the banks now get to water down. What does one call a thing that's weaker than a wet noodle?

April 30 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve will postpone the release of stress tests on the biggest U.S. banks while executives debate preliminary findings with examiners, according to government and industry officials.

The results, originally scheduled for publication on May 4, now may not be revealed until toward the end of next week, said the people, who declined to be identified. A new release date may be announced as soon as tomorrow, they said.

Regulators and bank executives are concerned about how the disclosure is handled because weaker institutions could suffer a collapse in their stock prices.

....

The 19 firms include Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Corp., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., GMAC LLC, MetLife Inc. and regional lenders including Fifth Third Bancorp and Regions Financial Corp. The banks in the test hold two-thirds of the assets and more than half of the loans in the U.S. banking system, according to a Fed study released April 24.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aYN.RjdIR9Hg

---

This process increasingly looks like a sham of a farce. What will the Fed and Treasury NOT do to protect the Banksters from their own self-destructive behavior?

The financial crisis has gone enough rounds to have evolved from tragedy into farce. The stress tests are a prime example.

It's hardly news that some banks are mucho unhappy with their grades. Wells Fargo and US Bank were complaining about the tests even before they began, clearly anticipating less than stellar scores based on the metric. Bank of America and Citi are known to be negotiating, arguing that they don't need the capital raises suggested.

....

But let's face it, in a real test, you don't get to score it yourself and then argue the grade. The banks fundamentally don't seem to accept that they are regulated entities and expect to be treated as equal partners. Given the likely decay in employment given the weakening fundamentals, all the Treasury is doing is getting the banks to face the music perhaps six months ahead of time, which is something they should be doing on their own.

But the flip side is this is yet another Geithner miscalculation. He wants to look tough on the banks, yet starts waffling when the banks get in a tizzy and presumably invoke images of market mayhem. But the use of the word "test", meant to reassure that there was indeed a method, led to demands for transparency. As much as I am a fan of disclosure in general, this is an area where less would have been more (although leaks make that a tough approach to maintain).

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/05/banks-still-negotiating-stress-test.html

Now, they may miss out on the candy Timmeh threatened to throw at them if they didn't pass.

So much for profits this Quarter.

or so says Business Insider:

So the stress tests have been delayed, because the banks and the Fed are arguing furiously over the results. Actually, the problem isn't so much that the Fed will publicly tell them they need more capital -- the problem is that the banks can't easily raise it. If they could raise it, they would've by now (dilution be damned) and this whole thing wouldn't be an issue.

So what point are they arguing over.

Well apparently a big one is that Citigroup (C) somehow claims that higher unemployment won't lead to higher credit card defaults. Seriously. Or at least CFO Ned Kelly has been arguing that the Fed's correlation of unemployment and credit card defaults is too negative.

http://www.businessinsider.com/citi-claims-higher-unemployment-wont-lead-to-big-credit-card-losses-2009-5

Mel: Which reminds me, where's your report card?
Cher: It's not ready yet.
Mel: What do you mean, "it's not ready yet?"
Cher: Well, some teachers are trying to low-ball me, Daddy. And I know how you say, "Never accept a first offer", so I figure these grades are just a jumping off point to start negotiations.

Manhattan attorney Jacob Zamansky has filed an amended lawsuit against the Bank of America, charging that it breached its ‘know your customer’ obligations by allowing a convicted felon to manage millions through about two dozen BofA accounts.

Zamansky, of Zamansky & Associates, claims that the bank “aided and abetted, encouraged, and rendered substantial assistance” to the $413 million fraud federal prosecutors say was perpetrated by Nicholas Cosmo and his company Agape World.

The original suit claimed that the Bank of America branch in West Hempstead assigned more than one bank employee to work out of Cosmo’s office in Hauppauge and supplied direct access to the bank’s accounts and systems.

Zamansky said bank employees stationed inside Agape’s Hauppauge headquarters knew that Cosmo was taking investor money and diverting it to his account.

Zamansky now says that bank employees provided Cosmo access to information about the cash balances of Agape investors who had Bank of America accounts. The amended suit claims that those Agape investors routinely received aggressive solicitations from Cosmo when their balances swelled.

Federal charges against Cosmo allege that he lost nearly $100 million in online futures trading and Zamansky claims the bank improperly approved those transfers of funds.

The suit also claims that futures trading companies are at fault because Cosmo had been barred from associating with the securities industry. Zamansky’s suit says that the trading companies should have also verified the “source and propriety” of the millions that came from a convicted felon.

Cosmo had served 20 months in federal prison for securities fraud and was released in August 2000.
No one from Bank of America could be reached for comment.

http://libn.com/blog/2009/04/30/attorney-bank-of-america-employees-aided-agape-fraud/

BoA had bank employees sitting at desks at their client's workplace. Since they did it here, I wonder how many other bank employees are sitting at desks at other hedge funds and private equity offices.

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 84.510 Change -0.282 (-0.36%)

Dollar, Stocks And Risk Appetite Reaction To Fed's Stress Test May Not Be Straightforward

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Dollar__Stocks_And_Risk_Appetite_1241140838228.html



• Dollar, Stocks And Risk Appetite Reaction To Fed’s Stress Test May Not Be Straightforward
• US 1Q GDP Sets A Disappointing Precedence For Global Growth
• Yields Continue To Contract With The RBNZ Cut Lowering The Ceiling On A Key FX Rate

The steady and relatively unimpeded rise in risk appetite over these past few months may have finally been put off its pace. After a bout of high volatility that coincided with heavy event risk, the markets seem to have lost their clear bias with momentum receding and the fundamental outlook for global growth and financial markets growing more complicated. This time around, traders and investors may require a tangible source of support to bolster their exposure while the future of risk and reward are still unbalanced. Taking measure of the market’s health though, there are a few irrefutable improvements in general conditions. The key improvement comes through the DailyFX Volatility Index. Though this indicator ticked higher week-over-week; at 13.7 percent, the forecasted range of price action over the next three months is nonetheless just off its lowest levels since the September (just before the panic that led to the panic sell off in equities and a deleveraging for so many other asset classes). This is a trend that cannot be ignored as its consistency reflects an underlying improvement in a critical component of the risk/reward equilibrium. For the potential yield or return side of that same equation, the forecast is not as bright – yet. Benchmark interest rates among some of the highest yielding currencies continue to fall and will do so until there is a genuine economic recovery underway. In the meantime, the global rates will trend closer and closer to zero and subsequently close the gap (or carry) along the way. However, we have seen in this market, things can change on a dime.

How risk appetite (or aversion) develops is becoming more and more a factor of sentiment rather than a natural response to fundamentals. The effects of recession are familiar to nearly every market participant; but policy officials, economists and speculators are quickly coming to a consensus that the global economy is beginning to stabilize and is likely to recover sometime at the end of this year or into the beginning of 2010. At the same time, the slighter than expected improvement in the pace of the United States’ recession through the first quarter certainly pushed this outlook back somewhat. As further growth readings from the industrialized and emerging markets cross the wires, the outlook will find further adjustments. Expansion and economic activity are inherently a platform for returns. As such, the timing of the eventual recovery will play a significant role in how quickly the rebound for speculation will be. Should the correction happen immediately, there will still be substantial yield differentials to work with and spur investment. However, with each month that passes, income producers like the Australian and New Zealand dollar will see their rates steadily depreciate. And, while there demand for return is on the rise, we cannot completely write off risk. After months of stability in the capital and credit markets, we are coming on the next major threat to calm: the Fed Stress Test. Initial reports suggest six of the 19 banks under review will come up short and be forced to raise capital. How will the market react to this? Is another collapse inevitable? Time will tell.

...more...

EUR/USD: Trading the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Report

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/EUR_USD__Trading_the_U_S__ISM_1241090329896.html

Manufacturing activity in the U.S. is expected to contract at a slower pace in April as economists project the ISM index to increase to 38.4 from 36.3 in the previous month, and the data could reinforce an improved outlook for growth as demands pick up however, as the region faces its worst economic downturn in over half a century, economic activity is likely to remain subdued throughout the first half of the year.


Trading the News: U.S. ISM Manufacturing

What’s Expected

Time of release: 05/01/2009 14:00 GMT, 10:00 EST

Primary Pair Impact : EURUSD
Expected: 38.4
Previous: 36.3

Impact the U.S. ISM Manufacturing has had on EURUSD over the last 2 months



March 2009 U.S. ISM Manufacturing

Manufacturing in the U.S. fell at a slower pace in March as the ISM index increased to 36.3 from 35.8 in the previous month, and the data suggests the downturn in the economy may be reaching a bottom as policymakers take unprecedented steps to steer the region out of a recession. A deeper look at the report showed new orders increased to 41.2 from 33.1 in February, while export demands rose to 39.0 from 37.5, and the employment component rebounded to 28.1 from a record-low of 26.1 in the previous month. Despite the minor improvement in March, economic activity is likely to remain subdued throughout the year as the labor market deteriorates while credit conditions remain far from normal, and conditions may get worse as the U.S. auto industry falters. Moreover, as the downturn in the world economy intensifies, trade conditions are likely to deteriorate further, which reinforces a weakening outlook for growth.



...more...

For more on Durant (Including his founding of GM, his lost of Control of GM, his regaining Control of GM, and second lost of Control and finally his management of a Bowling ally):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_C._Durant

As fate would have it... I've recently been reading about the pre-dynastic proto-Pharaohs of Egypt.

King Menes (credited with the unification of Upper and Lower Egypt) in particular.

It would seem his end came after a long and successful reign of 62 years in the form of a stampeding hippopotamus.

So, take that as yet another metaphor. Care is required herding hippos.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Menes

Why do we even bother following this Fraud?

Is a fraud.
Who knows what is going on behind the doors? And how could anyone take it seriously?
In my short lifetime, it seems all news coverage has utterly failed. Just take what is spoon-fed to them and run with it. Questions? What questions?
hamerfan

What happened? Oh, car sales figures came out. Thought that would be a few more days. Figures from Reuters:

GM: -34%
Ford: -32%
Chrysler: -48%
Toyota: -42%
Nissan: -38%
Honda: -25%

Also from Reuters: http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCAN0133229520090501?rpc=44

Following is a list of the top-20 selling vehicles, ranked by total units.
RANK VEHICLE 2009 2008 '08 RANK % Chng
1 Ford F-Series P/U 110,336 192,951 1 -42.8
2 Chevy Silverado-C/K P/U 93,720 160,010 2 -41.4
3 Toyota Camry 92,523 147,018 3 -37.1
4 Honda Accord 84,491 122,430 6 -31.0
5 Toyota Corolla 78,132 99,482 4 -21.5
6 Honda Civic 76,782 111,695 8 -31.3
7 Dodge Ram P/U 64,522 93,068 5 -30.7
8 Nissan Altima 61,670 99,037 9 -37.7
9 Honda CR-V 50,647 69,058 11 -26.7
10 Chevrolet Malibu 50,265 59,133 26 -15.0
11 Ford Fusion 46,799 55,109 20 -15.1
12 Chevrolet Impala 45,047 98,478 7 -54.3
13 Ford Escape 44,626 59,299 17 -24.7
14 Ford Focus 41,747 72,920 15 -42.7
15 Toyota RAV4 39,457 47,002 18 -16.1
16 Hyundai Sonata 35,432 37,472 -5.4
17 Jeep Wrangler 34,786 30,513 +14.0
18 Hyundai Elantra 33,851 26,479 27 +27.8
19 Toyota Prius 32,662 64,664 16 -49.5
20 Chevrolet Cobalt 32,065 66,660 14 -51.9

Right now.

I know I am.

It CAN'T be Joe SixPack and the Media's Mythical "Investors."

Moves like the one in the last five minutes, and for that matter all the BS Moves we've seen between 3PM and 4PM on an almost Daily Basis is NOT The Public all of a sudden getting "Happy" about the Economy.

And if you look at the Charts from the past few weeks, this is a Classic Ramp And Camp that is now struggling just to stay flat. TPTB have decided that 8000 is the Economic Price Adjusted Fascism Level they want.

This is CLASSIC Fraud.