STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday June 18

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday June 18, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Under Indictment = 2
Financial Sector Officials Under Indictment = 0
Financial Sector Officials In Prison = 2

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON June 17, 2009

Dow... 8,497.18 -7.49 (-0.09%)
Nasdaq... 1,808.06 +11.88 (+0.66%)
S&P 500... 910.71 -1.26 (-0.14%)
Gold future... 936.00 +3.80 (+0.41%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.69 +0.04 (+0.96%)
30-Year Bond 4.52 +0.04 (+0.96%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

A Fundamental Look at the Recent Dow Non-Confirmation
by Chris Puplava

While the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a new rally high in June the Dow Jones Transportation Average did not, with many technicians pointing out the non-confirmation (shown below). Today’s article looks at why the transports have been lagging and whether or not their recent weakness relative to the industrials will continue.

-chart-

The markets correctly discounted an improvement in economic activity as several economic indicators experienced a rebound after the plunge seen in the last quarter of 2008. For example, the ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) plummeted from 49.4 in August 2008 to 32.9 in December, but has since staged an impressive recovery to 42.8 in May of this year, though the index still shows a contracting economy as long as the index remains below 50.

.....

While improvement has been seen in the manufacturing base of the economy from the collapse seen last fall, there is little to show for improvement in terms of transportation data to support the rally in the Dow Transports. The Cass Corporate Freight Shipments Index, which is based on transportation dollars and shipments of 1500 of Cass Information Systems clients, has failed to confirm the rebound in the Dow Transports. A similar occurrence was seen in the 2001 rally that saw the Transports stage an impressive rally while the Cass Freight Shipments Index continued to head south. It was only when the Cass Index bottomed that the Dow Transports put in their final bottom in early 2003. While the Dow Transports have rallied meaningfully off the March lows, the Cass Freight Shipments Index has merely stabilized and does not support the rally in the Transports.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

08:30 Initial Claims 06/13
Briefing.com 595K
Consensus 602K
Prior 601K

10:00 Leading Indicators May
Briefing.com 1.0%
Consensus 1.0%
Prior 1.0%

10:00 Philadelphia Fed Jun
Briefing.com -18.0
Consensus -17.0
Prior -22.6

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

U.S. 4-wk avg. continuing claims up to 6.75 mln
8:30am Today

U.S. continuing jobless claims fall to 6.68 mln
8:30am Today

U.S. continuing jobless claims fall by 148,000
8:30am Today

U.S. 4-wk. avg. initial claims fall to 615,750
8:30am Today

U.S. initial jobless claims up 3,000 to 608,000
8:30am Today

(edited 'cuz I can't add)

Bad. Bad. Bad.

No other way to phrase this. Henceforth, anything above the minimum required figure for monthly job creation relative to the rate of population growth qualifies for 'oh shit!' status.

For several months we have been tracking job losses at sixteen times the rate of needed job growth to keep pace with the population entering the work force. In other words, we need an estimated 150k new jobs every month to keep pace with the population entering the workforce. Weekly job losses are tracking 600K plus. That statistic is abysmal.

by the next election, and then you'll see improvement....

From Calculated Risk:

Still contracting, but the pace of contraction has slowed "dramatically".

Here is the Philadelphia Fed Index released today: Business Outlook Survey.

Declines in the region's manufacturing sector were much less in evidence in June, according to results for this month's Business Outlook Survey. Indexes for general activity, new orders, and shipments showed notable improvement, suggesting recent declines have lessened dramatically. Indicative of ongoing weakness, however, firms reported sustained declines in employment and work hours this month.

The survey's broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, increased from -22.6 in May to -2.2 this month, its highest reading since September 2008 when the index was positive for one month...

Broad indicators of future activity showed significant improvement this month. The future general activity index remained positive for the sixth consecutive month and increased markedly from 47.5 in May to 60.1, its highest reading since September 2003 (see Chart). The index has now increased 71 points since its trough in December.

"The index has been negative for 18 of the past 19 months, a span that corresponds to the current recession."

More info with charts at link above..

SINGAPORE – Oil prices rose above $71 a barrel Thursday in Asia, arresting a recent decline as falling U.S. crude inventories suggested demand is improving.

Benchmark crude for July delivery rose 41 cents to $71.44 a barrel by late afternoon Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On Wednesday, it rose 56 cents to settle at $71.03.

....

The Energy Information Administration said Wednesday that crude inventories fell last week by 3.9 million barrels, or 1.1 percent, and have dropped 10.8 million barrels over the last four weeks.

While U.S. inventories are still bloated with the most oil in nearly 16 years, analysts see the recent drawdowns as a sign that gasoline demand is recovering.

....

In other Nymex trading, gasoline for July delivery was steady at $2.03 a gallon and heating oil gained 1.15 cents to $1.86. Natural gas for July delivery rose 1.8 cents to $4.27 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

WASHINGTON – Legislation that would require greater use of renewable energy, make it easier to build power lines and allow oil and gas drilling near the Florida coastline advanced Wednesday in the Senate.

The Energy and Natural Resources Committee approved the bill by a 15-8 bipartisan vote. But both Democrats and Republicans expressed concerns about the bill and hoped to make major changes when it reaches the Senate floor, probably in the fall.

The measure's primary thrust is to expand the use of renewable sources of energy such as wind, solar and geothermal sources as well as deal with growing worries about the inadequacies of the nation's high-voltage power grid.

.....

While the bill was approved by a safe margin in the committee its prospects in the full Senate are anything but certain. Several senators called it too weak in its support of renewable energy development, while others said it ignored nuclear energy and greater domestic oil and gas production.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090617/ap_on_go_co/us_energy_bill_3

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – President Barack Obama laid out his vision for recrafting U.S. financial regulation on Wednesday, vowing to halt "a cascade of mistakes ... over the course of decades" that eroded bank and market oversight.

....

The plan takes on some tough jobs, such as forcing large financial firms to boost their capital cushions and regulating over-the-counter derivatives and securitized instruments.

....

No merger of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is being proposed, for instance, due largely to political obstacles.

A centerpiece of the plan is vesting the Federal Reserve with new powers over "systemic risk" in the economy with the aim of preventing future disasters like September's collapse of former Wall Street giant Lehman Brothers and the taxpayer bailout of mega-insurer American International Group.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090617/bs_nm/us_financial_regulation

---

Vesting the Federal Reserve with more powers is a mistake. This amounts to outsourcing banking oversight to a consortium of banks that are not bound by U.S. transparency laws. Second, oversight of the banking industry only works when there is genuine interest in oversight. Secretary Geithner, as the former NY Fed chief, practiced no oversight of New York financial firms in his position which, as chartered, is tasked with these responsibilities. Less should be hidden under the Fed's cloak. Not more. This provision needs to be stripped from the bill when it reaches Congress.

....

In the overhaul of financial regulation proposed by the Obama administration on Wednesday, rating services — which, during the boom, stamped high ratings on many subprime securities — will avoid the radical changes their detractors have urged.

While the administration is proposing some modest changes, none addresses what many see as the central problem: Services like Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s are paid by the companies whose securities they are evaluating. It is as if Hollywood studios paid movie critics to review their would-be blockbusters.

....

The rating services play a crucial role in the capital markets by rating everything from plain-vanilla corporate bonds to trickier “structured” investments. By law, banks must take ratings into account when investing in bonds. Big money managers often base investment guidelines on them.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/18/business/18securitize.html

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Again, we see Geithner and Summers hand in this. If the culture that gives the ratings agencies so much influence over valuing assets were changed then the "misunderstood" value of worthless assets, these derivatives contracts (now called "legacy assets"), would be subject to revision. PPIP is dead because everyone with a brain knows that legacy assets are as worthless as used toilet paper. Geithner and Summers - once again - look out for the banks short-term speculative interests more than they care about protecting the value of solid investments and their owners.

I guess Uncle Sam doesn't want to piss off S&P. They might lower his credit rating.

:donut: :donut: :donut:

That would jack up the works, wouldn't it? I wonder how much the bond market would crash if Uncle Sam poked at the ratings agencies with a sharp stick?

My questions are two-fold: Will Obama try to institute the correct regulations? And: Did he wait too long before introducing the effort? They say the honeymoon period is over. Traditionally, Presidents have a short time to initiate their new programs. Then the opposition hardens, the support fragments, and the President has to start playing defense.

Okay, a third question is: Will terrific new regulations do any good if the next time Republicans take power, they will just pull a George W Bush and put anti-regulators in charge of regulatory agencies?

I feel that Obama has veered in a positive direction lately but has not fully corrected his course. He had a litany of bad advice that wrote his earlier policy/ideas. Your third question weighs heavily on every concern moving forward.

Could we have another malevolent administrator like Bush? Sure. If someone has any ideas for a panacea - please come forward and share.

We've got a Dem prez, Dem House, Dem Senate, but we've got puke/DLC holdovers at the head of the economic team. So it doesn't take a puke administration to wreak havoc.

Obama didn't put the brakes on the crisis, and that was his main mistake, as I see it. He thought, I suppose, that he could hold it all together and bring it under control without damaging the foundations. Unfortunately, it was those very foundations that were the problem. And until he addresses those, nothing's going to change.




Tansy Gold

Edward Harrison writing at Naked Capitalism

.....

If you listen to the criticism from the right and from the left, from pro-regulation and anti-regulation pundits, you can understand the political constraints which produced the white paper which the President unveiled yesterday. Given those constraints, I consider the white paper a good effort.

My initial reaction, therefore, was largely positive. However, upon further reflection, it is clear this is a political document more than a regulatory one. The white paper is a govern by consensus product about which I have grave reservations. There is much to like about the white paper, but also much to question. As a result, I see no need to rush ahead and enact sweeping legislation and reform before the full measure of the financial crisis has been felt and the implications of regulatory lapses is known.

Propaganda campaign is coming

An orchestrated media blitz is now under way. We have Summers and Geithner's Op-Ed in the Washington Post Monday. Christina Romer on Bloomberg today. The President giving his speech, Austan Goolsbee was on CNBC talking this thing up and Sheila Bair released a statement of support. Obama’s whole financial team is out making the rounds in support of this legislation.

How are people reacting to the plan? Banks seem happy. Arthur Levitt, a consultant to Carlyle and Goldman Sachs, is happy. Ron Paul and most economists – not so much – but for very different reasons. This should tell you that the legislation is fairly bank-friendly. But the unhappy parties make clear that there are political constraints.

---

Mr. Harrison has issued a good list called "What’s wrong with this proposal". It deserves your attention.

It is exceedingly difficult to convey exactly how much we are spending on all these bailouts. Whenever I start talking trillions (versus mere billions), I get puzzled looks from people. Humans have a hard time conceptualizing any number that large. I wanted a graphic way to clearly show how astonishingly ginormous the amounts involved were.

So I once again went to Jess Bachman at Wallstats. This Bailout Nation graphic shows the the total costs to the taxpayer of all the monies spent, lent, consumed, borrowed, printed, guaranteed, assumed or otherwise committed. It is nothing short of astonishing.

It includes the total outlay for all the bailouts to date. In just about one short year (march 2008 - March 2009), the bailouts managed to spend far in excess nearly every major one time expenditure of the USA, including WW2, the moon shot, the New Deal, Iraq, Viet Nam and Korean wars — COMBINED.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/06/bailout-costs-vs-big-historical-events/

---

Please go see the graphic. It compares massive historical capital expenditures: on one side, over the past twelve months versus, on the other side, costs over the previous 206 years.

The thing is, that a lot of those expenditures were begun when Bush was in office. But when the economy turns bad, they blame the current president forgetting how we got into this mess.
:(

When you remember we were on both sides of the Civil War, and the collateral damage was all here in our country, and correct for 130 years of inflation, it comes to a pretty big amount. I think I heard more that Vietnam, but less than WWII. And where is the box for WWII? That should be bigger than Vietnam. WWI isn't there either. The Korean War box looks a little too big. It wasn't that close to the dollar cost of Vietnam.

Oh, okay, I looked it up. Here's a graphic of the cost of wars in 2008 dollars: http://manyeyes.alphaworks.ibm.com/manyeyes/visualizations/89ade5ae1b698c4b011b6b494ac80191/comments/253a88b8ada011ddbde3000255111976

According to this, I overestimated the cost of the Civil War, though they split the costs to the Union and Confederate sides. Together, they add up $60.2B. Lack of expensive high tech weaponry and small value of destroyed infrastructure might explain it. Look how big WWII is ($4.1 trillion).

compared to major wars merits consideration. In essence, we have found ourselves in yet another undeclared war. (I think the big banks are winning.)

has been scrutinized on DU? I must have missed it, tried to post a loong OP on it yesterday, lost network connection upon pressing post :-(
The bailout (in ALL its forms, people just don't know) is to me the elephant in the room that precludes much of the rest of the policy debate.

One bit I ran across in the full text (available at http://static.tijd.be/upload/Voorstel_Obama-4652884.pdf) is the fact that FDIC would be able to liquidate not just (smaller) banks, but also bank HOLDINGS and other companies. Iirc, a point that has been argued for by several bailout critics.

Overall, I got the feeling Obama does want to bend the overhaul in the "right" direction, but without challenging the status quo (ie the "too big to fail" meme is continuated, and the Fed gets more power. Say what??).

They thought the Republican Party was near death during FDR's time. After all, the R's were blamed for the Great Depression, and Roosevelt saved the banks, saved capitalism, and won WWII. Then they thought the Republicans were done in after Watergate. In the mid to late 70s it was poison to have an R after a politician's name.

I was just thinking this morning that as the baby boom generation retires, pensions and social security are not safe because sometime in the next 20 to 30 years, the Republicans may get another at bat with leadership who remembers the Bush years fondly. If you think that's impossible, just look at how they regard St. Ronald Reagan now. Yet a big topic during Bill Clinton's first campaign for president was the "failure of Reaganomics." Then W came in with a strong desire to imitate the economic policies of Herbert Hoover.

The motives that drive these ideologies seem eternal while the memories of voters have the lifespan of a fruit fly.

Today (and moving forward into the future) it will be extremely difficult to rewrite history with the great fondness that we have witnessed from seeking political power. Why? Technology.

Evidence to this perspective can be found in Rumsfeld's reaction from the release of Abu Graib images. Technology and the immediacy of the Internet never crossed the mind of old-style politicians whose political realities were formed when there were only a handful of respectable major dailies and even fewer television news outlets. If a politician was quoted saying something inflammatory in the newspaper, he can merely say that either he was misquoted or that he never said it at all. Thirty years ago, there was no immediacy of data storage and transmission systems as we have today.

Side note: Do you remember Rumsfeld's reaction on live tee-vee when CNN aired tape of him shaking hands with Saddam Hussein during the Reagan years? Older politicians have not changed their world view from the "good ol' days" to today's culture in which they must temper their language and actions to accommodate the immediate broadcast of every syllable they utter and every finger twitch.

My FiL argues that no one will remember what someone said ten or twenty years ago. That used to be true. Very, very true. How else could there still be room in the world for a Herbert Hoover Institute for economic policy research? Ahhh... the "good ol' days. They were terrible.

I love technology and hate it sometimes. If I were constantly in the public eye then I can assure you that I would hate it even more.

When I ran for Congress, my wife constantly reminded me to act like I had a camera or a mic on me at all times.

I ran a campaign for a friend of mine, who spoke very sincerely and passionately on the stage, or during interviews. As soon as he was off the stage, or the mic was turned off, he talked like a sailor. He lost a lot of supporters because of that.

I googled my address the other day. Right after the map, came a campaign finance report. A little deeper, posts to a freethinkers forum from the late '90s through 2002.

It's ALL out there now.

No matter how many times Jon Stewart shows video clips of Dick Cheney saying exactly what Cheney just denied ever saying, Cheney keeps spewing BS, and right wing TeeVee and websites give the falsifications life and credibility (with some). It still takes critical thinking and a little effort to tease pins of reliable historical information out of the hay pile of misinformation.

One of the things I like about the SMW thread is the frequent references to source material, quoting and linking to the articles or tables of data. Yet, a lot of the time we immediately proceed to shred the premises of the articles' original authors. That's part of the fun.

Cheney has had many "goes to eleven" moments. Too many to count really. He is still that old fashioned politician who believes that the truth is what he says it is, but is subject to change at his discretion. As I recall, it was Rumsfeld who recommended Cheney to a position in the Nixon administration. Quite a pedigree there.

Yes, critical thinking is essential. I lament evidence of a conspicuous lack of it. So we keep plugging away, having fun analyzing and shredding premises here at the SMW. We're doing our little corner of the world a favor.

Comparing Democrat’s hero-CLINTON—versus Republican’s hero--REAGAN
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.JOBS—grew by 43% more under Clinton.
2.GDP---grew by 57% more under Clinton.
3.DOW—grew by 700% more under Clinton..
4.NASDAQ-grew by 18 times as much under Clinton.
5.SPENDING--grew by 28% under Clinton---80% under Reagan.
6.DEBT—grew by 43% under Clinton—187% under Reagan.
7. DEFICITS—Clinton got a large surplus--grew by 112% under Reagan.
8.NATIONAL INCOME—grew by100% more under Clinton.
9.PERSONAL INCOME—Grew by 110% more under Clinton.
10. DEFENSE BUDGETED-Clinton -2311B—Reagan-2062B (current $)
11.UNEMPLOYMENT—AVG—Clinton 5.2%--Reagan 7.6%
(I admit averaging averages can be dumb. I dumb.)
SOURCES—Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.BLS.Gov)--Economic Policy Institute (EPI.org)—Global & World Almanacs from 1980 to 2003 (annual issues)
www.the-hamster.com (chart taken from NY Times)
National Archives History on Presidents. www.nara.gov
LA Times 10-11-00 on Market--www.Find articles.com
Federal Budget.Com 2009

A vote for a Conservative is a vote for Less Success.
A vote to reduce the Standard of Living for all Americans.

Recall 1920’s and Wall Street under Conservative control?
Recall 2000-2008 and Wall Street under Conservative control?

Want more of those years?

Even less do I want Bush or Hoover-like years. But the m*therf*ckers keep coming back. And they come back with the same old sh*tty policies that I thought were thoroughly discredited many decades ago. They completely ignore the facts that you laid out so neatly and make up BS. One of my Republican friends argues that "It takes time for a President's economic policies to take effect. So all the stuff that looked good under Clinton was really the result of Reagan." (They always forget GHW Bush.)

Meanwhile, I hear other Republicans trying to blame Obama, not just for the current situation, but for stuff GW Bush did before Obama took office. (TARP is all Obama's fault, they claim.) Something like 22% still think George W. did a good job. Hannity told Jesse Ventura, "Yes, I do think the country is better off since George Bush took office."

It hurts me to think about Wall Street from 2000-2008. I personally lost a fortune then, the fortune made mostly in the 90s.

Other than bringing up painful memories, I thought that was a very good post.

because those are the ways they got back in after the Depression and the Nixon debacle.

However, this time they just might have jumped the shark and could easily go the way of the Federalists and then the Whigs.

The Republicans have made two deals with the devil, Nixon with the southern bigots and Reagan with the religious crazies. Now the devils are the most numerous within the party and want to run it. They've lost their traditionally solid, if minority, base and will continue to radicalize themselves completely out of the mainstream.

The devil for the Federalists was the emerging plutocracy and the devil for the Whigs was the small but growing Abolitionist movement.

History could easily repeat itself.

Stoneleigh: People have been asking how we see the future unfold. In case you wonder what we stand for, much of our view of what's to come can be found in the primers on the right-hand side bar. Here is an additional brief summary (in no particular order and not meant to be exhaustive) of the ground we have consistently covered here at TAE over the last year and a half, and before that elsewhere.

1. Deflation is inevitable due to Ponzi dynamics (see From the Top of the Great Pyramid)
2. The collapse of credit will crash the money supply as credit is the vast majority of the effective money supply
3. Cash will be king for a long time
4. Printing one's way out of deflation is impossible as printing cannot keep pace with credit destruction (the net effect is contraction)
5. Debt will become a millstone around people's necks and bankruptcy will no longer be possible at some point
6. In the future the consequences of unpayable debt could include indentured servitude, debtor's prison or being drummed into the military
7. Early withdrawls from pension plans will be prevented and almost all pension plans will eventually default
8. We will see a systemic banking crisis that will result in bank runs and the loss of savings
9. Prices will fall across the board as purchasing power collapses
10. Real estate prices are likely to fall by at least 90% on average (with local variation)
11. The essentials will see relative price support as a much larger percentage of a much smaller money supply chases them
12. We are headed eventually for a bond market dislocation where nominal interest rates will shoot up into the double digits
13. Real interest rates will be even higher (the nominal rate minus negative inflation)
14. This will cause a tsunami of debt default which is highly deflationary
15. Government spending (all levels) will be slashed, with loss of entitlements and inability to maintain infrastructure
16. Finance rules will be changed at will and changes applied retroactively (eg short selling will be banned, loans will be called in at some point)
17. Centralized services (water, electricity, gas, education, garbage pick-up, snow-removal etc) will become unreliable and of much lower quality, or may be eliminated entirely
18. Suburbia is a trap due to its dependence on these services and cheap energy for transport
19. People with essentially no purchasing power will be living in a pay-as-you-go world
20. Modern healthcare will be largely unavailable and informal care will generally be very basic
21. Universities will go out of business as no one will be able to afford to attend
22. Cash hoarding will continue to reduce the velocity of money, amplifying the effect of deflation
23. The US dollar will continue to rise for quite a while on a flight to safety and as dollar-denominated debt deflates
24. Eventually the dollar will collapse, but that time is not now (and a falling dollar does not mean an expanding money supply, ie inflation)
25. Deflation and depression are mutually reinforcing in a positive feedback spiral, so both are likely to be protracted
26. There should be no lasting market bottom until at least the middle of the next decade, and even then the depression won't be over
27. Much capital will be revealed as having been converted to waste during the cheap energy/cheap credit years
28. Export markets will collapse with global trade and exporting countries will be hit very hard
29. Herding behaviour is the foundation of markets
30. The flip side of the manic optimism we saw in the bubble years will be persistent pessimism, risk aversion, anger, scapegoating, recrimination, violence and the election of dangerous populist extremists
31. A sense of common humanity will be lost as foreigners and those who are different are demonized
32. There will be war in the labour markets as unempoyment skyrockets and wages and benefits are slashed
33. We are headed for resource wars, which will result in much resource and infrastructure destruction
34. Energy prices are first affected by demand collapse, then supply collapse, so that prices first fall and then rise enormously
35. Ordinary people are unlikely to be able to afford oil products AT ALL within 5 years
36. Hard limits to capital and energy will greatly reduce socioeconomic complexity (see Tainter)
37. Political structures exist to concentrate wealth at the centre at the expense of the periphery, and this happens at all scales simultaneously
38. Taxation will rise substantially as the domestic population is squeezed in order for the elite to partially make up for the loss of the ability to pick the pockets of the whole world through globalization
39. Repressive political structures will arise, with much greater use of police state methods and a drastic reduction of freedom
40. The rule of law will replaced by the politics of the personal and an economy of favours (ie endemic corruption)

http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/

I'm still trying to grapple with
35. Ordinary people are unlikely to be able to afford oil products AT ALL within 5 years


Oil products? Not just gas for our cars, but anything made from petroleum?
Like anything made from plastic? trash bags? computers? lenses for eyeglasses? That list is endless.

:(


Direct link to read comments and questions at the end of the articles
http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2009/06/june-17-2009-40-ways-to-lose-your.html

Edit: Stoneleigh has added this as a dailykos diary
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/6/18/743928/-40-ways-to-Lose-Your-Future

that the same idiots will be in charge throughout the process.

I have to think that won't be the case. Many will die natural or unnatural deaths, invalid out, or be ousted. New blood will be forced into the economic body, and new arteries will grow.

The old ways of doing everything simply cannot continue. The more complex and unnatural things will fail first. Anything that can revert to a more sustainable (sometimes referred to as "Primitive") mode of operation, will.

Large tax, finance, economic policy will cease to matter, because it will not be enforceable.

I think we will see ports and customs taxation become the big growth industry, until there are no seaworthy vessels.

Change is painful only if one gets nothing out of it, or stubbornly resists, tooth and nail. Anyone selling painful and exploitative change will be summarily booted. This is still America, and we aren't all dead or senile yet.

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 80.410 Change +0.241 (+0.31%)

US Dollar Positioning Increasingly Bullish Against Forex Majors

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/US_Dollar_Positioning_Increasingly_Bullish_1245313013836.html

US Dollar positioning is turning increasingly bullish against the spectrum of major forex currencies. We have already initiated exposure against the Euro, the British Pound and the Australian Dollar, with trades selling the Canadian and New Zealand dollars against the greenback pending just around the corner.



...more...

The Pound Sunk By Unexpected Weak Retail Sales, Supporting Recovery Concern

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/The_Pound_Sunk_By_Unexpected_1245319262482.html

The pound sunk nearly 100 pips immediately after the disappointing release of U.K. May retail sales which unexpectedly fell by 0.6%. Early forecasts were looking for a 0.3% gain which would have been a third straight month of improvement, but months of job losses made it difficult for Britons to sustain the level of demand. However, public sector net borrowing rose to £19.8 billion which was the highest since record keeping began in 1993 and a sign credit markets are thawing. The GBP/USD reached as low as 1.6209 before finding support erasing all of its gains from yesterday’s trading.

A reversal in consumption at non-food and non-specialized stores which fell by -1.4% and -1.8%, signals that Britons have reigned in non-discretionary spending. Signs of stabilization in the economy had led to gains the past two months but now that the built up demand has been exhausted, future purchases will come under scrutiny. Meanwhile, calls for spending to be curbed by Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling will put added pressure on Prime Minister Gordon Brown as the government continues to increase its debt in an attempt to spur an economic recovery. Also, BoE Governor King speaking today said that although that there a signs of a recovery, it is too soon to reverse stimulus and liquidity measures, but the time has come to plan an exit strategy. The comments underline the prevailing concern that as soon as we start to see a global recovery, government’s efforts to stave of inflation and reverse recent efforts will limit the upside potential for growth. The GBP/USD losses were slowed by the 20-Day SMA at 1.6222, but further weakness could lead to a test of 1.5986- the 6/9 low.

The Euro has seen see saw price action during European trading as bullish sentiment is being challenged by declining equity markets. The EUR/GBP is benefiting from sterling weakness which has propped up the single currency against the dollar. The Italian trade balance was the only fundamental release which showed a deficit of 277 billion euros after a surplus of 69 billion the month prior as exports sharply fell. Despite, signs of stabilization in the economic union there are several countries that are still facing considerable challenges. Indeed, the German economic Ministry June report stated that the contraction is weaker than previously and expects a bottoming by the end of 2009 but downside risk remain high. The 20-Day SMA at 1.4015 may limit upside potential for the EUR/USD which could lead to another re-test of 1.3783- the 38.2% Fibo of 1.2884 -1.4340.

The SNB left its Libor target rate unchanged at 0.25%, as expected and confirmed that it will continue to take "firm action" to prevent an appreciation of the franc as risks of deflation still remain. The central bank also pledged to continue to provide sufficient liquidity to the market until signs of growth return. The USD/CHF was relatively unchanged despite the commitment to depreciate the franc.

After earlier losses the dollar has regained its footing and is benefiting from increased risk aversion on the back of weak U.K. consumption figures. We may see continued greenback support as markets start to come to the reality that any recovery will be prolonged and challenging. On the US economic docket we will see focus on the upcoming initial jobless claims figures as traders look for signs that the labor market is improving. Forecasts are for new filings to remain level at 602k after 601k the month prior as the pace of layoffs has slowed. A drop below the 600K level could spark an improvement in risk sentiment and weigh on the dollar. Additionally, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing reading is forecasted to improve to -17.0 from -22.6 which would be the highest since September, 2008. Canadian CPI out ahead of the U.S. releases will also provide volatility for the “loonie “pairs as forecasts are for a drop to -0.2% which could encourage the BoC to institute quantitative easing measures.

...more...

Mervyn King, the governor of the Bank of England, tonight called for banks that are "too big to fail" to be cut down to size as he opened a deep rift with Alistair Darling over the future regulation of the City.

While the chancellor used the annual Mansion House gathering of City grandees to oppose a break up of the big financial institutions, King sketched out plans for a much more radical overhaul.

He voiced opposition to high street banks having taxpayer-funded guarantees for their speculative investment banking activities and expressed scepticism about changes to regulation in the aftermath of the run on Northern Rock that would limit the Old Lady of Threadneedle Street to delivering "sermons".

....

King put it differently. "Blaming individuals is no substitute for acknowledging the failure of a system, of a certain type of banking. We have a real opportunity now to put that right and regain the trust that has been lost."

The Conservatives have already called for a break up of banks that are "too big to fail" and signalled a willingness to dismantle Lloyds Banking Group and Royal Bank of Scotland.

....

Unite, Britain's biggest union, also highlighted the plight of the unemployed. "You only have to look at the latest unemployment figures, the highest in 12 years, to see what the bankers have done to our economy. Tinkering with the regulatory system is not an option, there needs to be radical reform," said Derek Simpson, Unite's joint general secretary.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/jun/17/king-in-bank-reform-call

and their evil way of privatizing the profits and socializing the risks.

Merger mania often grips the corporate world. But we need to push a major divestiture effort to promote REAL competition in the marketplace.

Did I fall asleep, or something?

From there - the imagination can carry us away.

King of All Garbage Scows;

King Lint and Tattered Socks;

on and on...

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE55H0M720090618?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews

(Reuters) - NYSE Euronext (NYX.N) (NYX.PA) said it had signed a deal with Depository Trust & Clearing Corp (DTCC) to form a joint venture for clearing U.S. fixed income derivatives.

The new clearing house, New York Portfolio Clearing, will combine the NYSE Euronext's U.S. futures exchange and DTCC's Fixed Income Clearing Corp to offer risk management, clearing and settlement efficiencies for U.S. fixed income securities and derivatives.

NYSE Euronext, the world's top exchange operator by the size of its listings, said it planned to commit a $50 million financial guarantee as an additional contribution to back the NYPC default fund.

The New York Stock Exchange parent company said the joint venture has been approved by both companies and was expected to be operational in the second quarter of 2010.

...more...

Yippee! Now we can have "unsophisticated" investors trading in this swamp!!!

:woohoo:

I get the distinct impression that all this TARP, PPip, bailout etc is simply a delaying tactic until Wall Street can manufacture a "market" to unload all their toxic worthless assets on the public either directly at the retail level or indirectly to the government.

I suppose in the twisted logic of Wall Street their ideal situation is to "sell" all the toxic assets to the Fed and take treasuries in return.

According to Pat Buchanon this morning, "Everthing is going the Republicans way right now". Due to epic failure of Obama so far.:evilgrin:

The details of his assertion must be frightening. Does he profess his continued belief in the Tooth Fairy?

June 17 (Bloomberg) -- JPMorgan Chase & Co. and four of the nation’s largest banks repaid $54.7 billion to the U.S. Treasury’s bailout fund in a step toward ridding themselves of government restrictions on lending and pay.

JPMorgan repaid $25 billion, and New York-based Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. each gave back $10 billion. U.S. Bancorp, with its headquarters in Minneapolis, refunded $6.6 billion and Winston-Salem, North Carolina-based BB&T Corp. paid $3.1 billion, the banks said today in separate statements.

The lenders are among 10 companies that last week said they would repay a total of $68 billion to the Troubled Asset Relief Program after Treasury approved the payments. Banks have unveiled plans to raise more than $100 billion in capital, and financial stocks have climbed in the past three months on signs the global credit contraction is easing.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aSmLfH2N0h0s

---

All big banks were required to take bailout funds. This, I believe, was to conceal the identities of the banks that were in the most trouble. So now I wonder if we can now reliably determine which banks are the weakest based on who has not paid the bailout money back.

because they don't want to limit their personal avarice, or anything else, for that matter...they want corporate welfare without any rules or restrictions.

June 18 (Bloomberg) -- European and emerging-market stocks fell for the fifth day, the longest losing streak since January, as an unexpected drop in U.K. retail sales and downgrades of U.S. banks by Standard & Poor’s fanned concern the global economic recovery will falter.

The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index of European shares slid 0.6 percent at 12:25 p.m. in London after a three-month, 36 percent rally that drove price-earnings valuations to the highest levels in five years. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index of 22 developing nations dropped 1 percent. The pound lost as much as 1.3 percent against the dollar after a report showed British retail sales fell in May.

....

U.S. futures fluctuated between gains and losses after three days of declines for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. The 40 percent rally in the S&P 500 since March 9 through last week had left the index valued at 14.9 times its companies’ earnings, near the highest since October.

Russia’s Micex index slid 4.5 percent to the lowest level since May 15 and Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite Index lost 3.7 percent to the lowest this month, leading the decline in emerging markets.

....

The Libor-OIS spread, which measures banks’ reluctance to lend, has narrowed to 38 basis points, from a record 364 basis points in October, following the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Analysts covering S&P 500 companies began to boost 2009 profit estimates for the first time this year in May as economists predicted the U.S. economy will start to expand next quarter, weekly data compiled by Bloomberg show.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a8H.sb5Ln2qE

Hungary, severely hit by the economic crisis, has said it is to close four embassies worldwide to save money, including one in Europe.

Budapest intends to close its representations in Luxembourg, as well as in Malaysia, Chile and Venezuela.

It will also shut down eight consulates – in Lyon (France), Dusseldorf (Germany), Krakow (Poland), Chicago (US), Toronto (Canada), Sao Paolo (Brazil), Sydney (Australia) and Hong Kong, Hungarian foreign minister Peter Balazs announced on Tuesday (16 June).

"With the reorganisation, the ministry will save two billion forint (around €7 million) annually," Mr Balazs said at a press conference in Budapest, French news agency AFP reported.

In addition to the closure of embassies and consulates, Hungarian delegations to several international organisations will move to shared offices in Vienna, Paris and Geneva, he added.

After the closures, Hungary will still maintain 102 representations in 80 states worldwide. But the opposition in the country criticised the move and said it was a form of "self-destruction."

The announcement comes as part of a bid to get Hungary out of its economic turmoil. Hit badly by the global crisis, it was the first EU country to obtain an International Monetary Fund-led €20 billion bail-out last year to avoid bankruptcy.

http://macedoniaonline.eu/content/view/7170/46/

And poor Latvia has also taken IMF funds. In order to do so they have cut teachers pay by 20% and have reduced pensions by 10%. Latvia had the lowest pension payment system in the EU prior to this cut but the IMF sharks are feasting on their skinny butts again.

Jun 18, 2009, 8:37 a.m. EST

U.S. stock futures tilt upward after jobless data
U.S. stock futures tilt upward after jobless dataStory Comment Alert Email Print ShareBy Kate Gibson NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stock futures turned higher on Thursday after the government reported continuing jobless claims fell by 148,000 to 6.68 million last week. Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average were up 22 points at 8,459. Those for the S&P 500 pulled 2 points higher to 908.00, while Nasdaq 100 futures gained 2 points to stand at 1,455.7.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-futures-tilt-upward-after-jobless-data

SACRAMENTO, Calif., June 17 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- The Senate Banking Committee today approved AB 377 after much debate, a measure disguised as reform of the predatory payday loan industry. In reality it not only maintains but worsens the status quo.

The bill will next head to the Senate Judiciary and Appropriations Committees.

AB 377 as presented contained a number of flawed provisions, none of which addressed the long-term financial harm that the payday debt trap does to consumers. These provisions included raising the loan amount, thus putting borrowers into greater payday loan debt, and offering borrowers one problematic repayment plan per year.

California, often a bastion of consumer protection, continues to capitulate to the payday industry rather than following the progressive lead of 15 states . . .

Payday lending supporters claim that payday loans are the only short-term credit options for the working poor living paycheck to paycheck. But data suggest that many borrowers have good credit before they get caught in the payday debt trap, and it is often payday loans themselves that lead to reduced credit options, a weakening of borrowers' credit scores and, most unfortunately, bankruptcy.

http://newsblaze.com/story/2009061719400200001.pnw/topstory.html

More payday lending. Just what California needs.

BIRMINGHAM, Ala. (AP) — A state judge on Thursday ordered former HealthSouth CEO Richard Scrushy to pay about $2.8 billion to shareholders who sued over accounting fraud at the rehabilitation chain.

Circuit Judge Allwin E. Horn, who heard the case without a jury, ruled in favor of HealthSouth shareholders who filed a civil suit claiming Scrushy was involved in a massive fraud that nearly sent the company into bankruptcy.

Scrushy was acquitted in a federal criminal case over related charges and testified in the state civil suit that he knew nothing about any fraud. He is serving a nearly seven-year sentence for a 2006 conviction in a separate state government bribery case.

The Alabama suit accused Scrushy of unethical dealings with the company while it was going broke and complicity in $2.6 billion in fraudulent earnings and asset reports it filed with regulators from 1996 to 2002. The amount shareholders sought included money they claimed he pocketed through sweetheart deals.

Scrushy, who testified publicly for the first time concerning the alleged fraud during the trial last month, denied getting millions from the company in improper deals or having any role in a scheme to cook the books.

"I had no knowledge of any financial fraud at HealthSouth," he testified.

While Scrushy was acquitted of criminal charges in federal court in 2005, 15 former HealthSouth executives pleaded guilty and a 16th was convicted. Some testified in the civil case, claiming Scrushy knew that financial reports were faked.

During the lawsuit trial, an attorney for shareholders, John W. Haley, repeatedly confronted Scrushy over what Haley described as obvious conflicts of interest. Among them was HealthSouth's purchase of 19 acres of land next to Scrushy's suburban Birmingham estate for $1.9 million, then giving him the land three years later. Scrushy said he got the land instead of a bonus one year.

Haley, sounding incredulous, recounted how Scrushy took an $82 investment in a company that purchased property at a discount from HealthSouth and turned it into a personal profit of some $12 million in four years by leasing the property back to the corporation.

"That's the way it works in America," Scrushy said.

Haley also claimed Scrushy received $226 million in compensation over seven years while HealthSouth was losing $1.8 billion, but Scrushy disputed the numbers.

Five former HealthSouth finance chiefs gave testimony implicating Scrushy in a scheme to fraudulently inflate earnings. Scrushy, who hired all five when he ran the company, blamed them and described them as having personal weaknesses.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hOi0Cq7H8K3ri9gM9CzBfMl3uKqAD98T6IG00

It's Too Bad this Tim Paradis fellow doesn't have a direct e-mail, because if he did I would be the first one to ask him how he can sleep at night knowing he's a liar and a Propagandist for thug criminals.

Financial, health care stocks lead market higher

Stock market welcomes Geithner comments on regulation, better reading on leading indicators

* By Tim Paradis, AP Business Writer
* On Thursday June 18, 2009, 12:46 pm EDT



NEW YORK (AP) -- Investors ("Investors" :rofl: ) piled back into shares of financial and health care companies, pushing the stock market higher after three days of declines.


Shares of major banks rose Thursday as Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner appeared before a Congressional panel defending the regulatory overhaul announced the day before by President Barack Obama. Geithner said he's seen evidence of healing in the financial sector. (Note there are no Specifics, no proof, no data, nothing that can be presented as fact. He just "Said So.")

Several positive reports on the economy encouraged investors after a sell-off in stocks earlier this week that dragged the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 index down 3.8 percent. (Pray Tell, which ones are those?)

A private sector group said its forecast of economic activity rose more than expected in May, marking a second straight month of gains after seven months of declines.

Read the rest of it. Contradictory, laughably obtuse.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Financial-health-care-stocks-apf-2185877222.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

A couple of more gems:

Geithner's comments appeared to ease anxiety about the impact of the government's regulatory changes, which have been a point of worry for investors in financial shares.

(Because the only time the Market goes up at all is when there is soothing Propaganda to cover the manipulation.)

Speaking before the Senate Banking Committee, Geithner said the Federal Reserve is best suited to become a super-regulator that would oversee large financial firms whose failure could topple the economy.

Yes, this is a GREAT IDEA. Put the Criminals in CHARGE of the Criminals. This is the Fed's and The Banks' WET DREAM. No Oversight, No checks and balances, the ability to steal, rob and loot with impunity, and the best part of it is: FULL LEGALITY TO DO SO.

Meanwhile, the Labor Department reported that total unemployment insurance rolls fell last week by 148,000 to 6.69 million -- the largest drop in more than seven years. However, new claims edged up.

Pretty good move here from a Propaganda perspective. For weeks they've been dealing the Bullshit that Claims were "slightly less than expected", so that was indication that the Recession ended last year, or possible never existed to begin with, but you can't keep playing the same card every week. So they have shifted the bullshit to Continuing Claims to tell us that everything is OK.

But there is a LITTLE bit of reality hidden in this Naziesque Propaganda Piece:

Rising yields -- which are closely tied to interest rates on mortgages and other consumer loans -- have become a concern for investors since a prolonged spike could choke off borrowing activity and threaten an economic recovery.

And the only truthful statement in the entire article:

"I don't think that this rally is sustainable," said Scott Armiger, portfolio manager at Christiana Bank & Trust. "I still think we have to give up a little bit more."

Well, Scott, you kind of told a HALF-TRUTH there. There is A LOT more to give up.

What did we learn from this article?

We don't have a functioning economic system.

PERIOD.

But I'm sure the apologists will be flagellating all over themselves today, talking about how Geithner is "Good", and how words will save the economy, not actions or sensible policies.

6/18/09 Dow gains on signs of hope
The blue-chip average advances after jobless claims, leading indicators and Philly Fed surprise economists.
http://money.cnn.com/2009/06/18/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm?postversion=2009061812

:wtf:


If anyone truly wants to know what we are up against, please read Stoneleigh's introduction at the beginning, and responses in the comments section, at The Automatic Earth
http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2009/06/june-17-2009-40-ways-to-lose-your.html

edit to add direct link to comments section
https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=4921988708619968880&postID=2214606954961509009&pli=1

Signs of HOPE? :wtf: INDEED.

The sad thing is DRDU, MOST people on DU would take the CNN article at face value, and not even bother with your other link, and just claim "It doesn't exist. Now shut up and let me feel good. You want things to fail, so you can be right and profit from it. You're not a team player."

I WEEP for this country.

And I no longer have much sympathy for those willing to go along with it's systematic destruction.

Thank You for the link, though.

It is the Truth almost NONE of us are willing to face.

Dr.Phool originally posted the TAE link earlier, but I got to reading the comments section this afternoon, and Stoneleigh is so patient explaining the whys and whats we are facing. It's numbing, I have much to do, yet it's still hard to face the truth.

Individual investors Not Fueling Recent Rally, Expert Says
Posted Jun 18, 2009 11:00am EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Recession, Banking

"Conventional wisdom is that retail investors – not institutions – have powered the market’s rally off the March lows.

Not so, says Charles Biderman, CEO of Trim Tabs Investment Research. His firm tracks the flow of money in and out of mutual funds. Since the start of May, he says, “U.S. equity funds have taken in a modest $7.1 billion” despite improved performance. Instead, retail investors are plowing money into bond funds.

Moreover, Biderman says that individuals did capitulate in the heat of the crisis, having been burned twice in the last ten years.

Normally, these would be bullish signs for the stock market. But Biderman is “cautiously bearish” and his model portfolio is 50% short, based on his concerns about the economy and high levels of insider selling."

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/266193/Individual-Investors-Not-Fueling-Recent-Rally%2C-Expert-Says


The link is to a video where Biderman is asserting that individual investors are stubbornly on the sidelines. He pooh poohs the myth that there is simply trillions of dollars sitting on the sidelines to fuel the rally. I'm inferring that this bear market rally is being almost completely driven by market makers manipulating the markets to draw in mutual fund money managers. These "institutions" simply must pour their cash into mutual equity funds or else miss their target percentages and get fired.

I think that this also means when the market finally turns down again, sometime late summer or early fall (my timing is always off), that programmed trading and the herd mentality of the institutional money managers will take the markets down harder and faster than ever, ever before.

But I never got around to it.

"Individual Investors" have absolutely ZERO with this inflated, artificial, manipulated Zombie Rally.

Biderman makes some good points.

Thanks Again for the post. :hi:

Huh?

http://www.boston.com/business/ticker/2009/06/local_buyers_to.html

The local buyers of convicted Ponzi scheme operator Bernard Madoff's former brokerage have renamed the business Surge Trading Inc. and plan to reopen in the same midtown Manhattan office tower where the firm operated before scandal overtook the investment side of Madoff's business.

The deal, which could fetch up to $25.5 million for Madoff's victims, was completed today. The firm is still awaiting approval by the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, but its principals are working on the business in hopes that by August, they'll be actively placing stock trades for clients like big-name Wall Street brokerage houses and smaller regional brokers.

Surge has attracted some big names from the brokerage industry, as previously reported by the Globe. They include chief executive Frank J. Petrilli, the former chief of brokerage TD Waterhouse, and Robert P. Mazzarella, a former president of Fidelity Brokerage Services in Boston, who will be nonexecutive chairman of the new firm. They said they hope to pick up where the old firm left off, and to attract new clients among hedge funds and investment managers.

. . .

The operation will rehire a number of people from the former Madoff brokerage -- perhaps as many as 50, Petrilli said -- and decided to stay at the trading floor in the Third Avenue location, called the Lipstick Building (for its shape and color), because the technology and infrastructure are still there.


more . . .


They are hiring people from a firm which has not made one valid trade, whose only talent is being creative in conjuring up client investment statements. How would anyone think this is a valid business model.

(Debt moves up .3 billion dollars, a tiny amount. Day before raised debt enough for most of a week. What occurs today will be reported tomorrow, Friday, and has shown bigger increases, but not all the time. The borrowing has not been outrageous under Obama as Republican poutrage would suggest. F5 before paste and post.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,133,503,894,802.76 + 4,272,509,065,079.79
UP 300,303,919.12 + UP 4,988,923,511.22

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 307-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.26 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.78, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 306,667,142 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 05/25/2009 01:14 -> 306,504,012
Currently, each of these Americans owe $37,193.46.
A family of three owes $111,580.39. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 5,804,883,450.38.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,063,418,415.27.
The average for the last 32 days would be 3,809,454,764.31.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 100 reports in 147 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging -0.14B$ per report, -0.05B$/day so far.
There were 175 reports in 259 days of FY2009 averaging 7.89B$ per report, 5.33B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,314 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.2 and 18.4T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
06/16/2009 11,406,012,959,882.55 BHO (UP 779,135,910,969.47 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,381,288,062,970.10 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
05/26/2009 +000,178,213,075.69 ------------******** Tue
05/27/2009 +000,332,821,919.42 ------------********
05/29/2009 +019,434,324,960.50 ------------**********
06/01/2009 +078,540,152,146.76 ------------********** Mon
06/02/2009 +000,543,288,286.72 ------------********
06/03/2009 -000,003,266,733.82 -----
06/04/2009 +011,755,789,483.75 ------------**********
06/05/2009 -000,226,149,345.97 ---
06/08/2009 +000,015,040,049.19 ------------******* Mon
06/09/2009 +000,025,670,087.48 ------------*******
06/10/2009 +000,124,232,779.18 ------------********
06/11/2009 +000,484,710,305.16 ------------********
06/12/2009 +000,342,814,514.03 ------------********
06/15/2009 +022,279,783,785.91 ------------********** Mon
06/16/2009 +000,300,303,919.12 ------------********

134,127,729,233.12 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,741,381,156,623.48 in last 271 days.
That's 1,741B$ in 271 days.
More than any year ever, including last year, and it's 171% of that highest year ever only in 271 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 271 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3926836&mesg_id=3926852

(Debt moves down .017 billion dollars, a teeny-tiny amount. Ready for the Friday dump, should that happen. Good day and great weekend to all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,133,486,161,909.16 + 4,269,284,066,164.82
DOWN 17,732,893.60 + DOWN 3,224,998,914.97

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 307-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.26 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.78, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 306,674,342 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 05/25/2009 01:14 -> 306,504,012
Currently, each of these Americans owe $37,182.02.
A family of three owes $111,546.05. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 33 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 5,393,628,211.34.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,955,327,354.98.
The average for the last 33 days would be 3,595,752,140.89.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 101 reports in 148 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging -0.20B$ per report, -0.08B$/day so far.
There were 176 reports in 260 days of FY2009 averaging 7.83B$ per report, 5.30B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,313 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.2 and 18.4T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
06/17/2009 11,402,770,228,073.98 BHO (UP 775,893,179,160.90 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,378,045,331,161.50 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
05/27/2009 +000,332,821,919.42 ------------********
05/29/2009 +019,434,324,960.50 ------------**********
06/01/2009 +078,540,152,146.76 ------------********** Mon
06/02/2009 +000,543,288,286.72 ------------********
06/03/2009 -000,003,266,733.82 -----
06/04/2009 +011,755,789,483.75 ------------**********
06/05/2009 -000,226,149,345.97 ---
06/08/2009 +000,015,040,049.19 ------------******* Mon
06/09/2009 +000,025,670,087.48 ------------*******
06/10/2009 +000,124,232,779.18 ------------********
06/11/2009 +000,484,710,305.16 ------------********
06/12/2009 +000,342,814,514.03 ------------********
06/15/2009 +022,279,783,785.91 ------------********** Mon
06/16/2009 +000,300,303,919.12 ------------********
06/17/2009 -000,017,732,893.60 ----

133,931,783,263.83 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,738,138,424,814.91 in last 272 days.
That's 1,738B$ in 272 days.
More than any year ever, including last year, and it's 171% of that highest year ever only in 272 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 272 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3928421&mesg_id=3929424