STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday August 17

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday August 17, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Under Indictment = 2
Financial Sector Officials In Prison = 6

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 14, 2009

Dow... 9,321.40 -76.79 (-0.82%)
Nasdaq... 1,985.52 -23.83 (-1.19%)
S&P 500... 1,004.09 -8.64 (-0.85%)
Gold future... 948.70 -7.80 (-0.82%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.57 -0.03 (-0.81%)
30-Year Bond 4.42 0.00 (0.00%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

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Handy Links - Market Data and News:
Economic Calendar    Marketwatch Data    Bloomberg Economic News    Yahoo! Finance
    Google Finance    LayoffDaily    Bank Tracker    Credit Union Tracker

Handy Links - Economic Blogs:
The Big Picture    Financial Sense    Calculated Risk    Naked Capitalism    Credit Writedowns
    Brad DeLong    Bonddad    Atrios    goldmansachs666

Handy Links - Government Issues:
LegitGov    Open Government    Earmark Database    USA spending.gov

Handy Links - Videos:
The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class    Charlie Rose talks with Roubini    Charlie Rose talks with Krugman

---

This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

Under Market Data and News - you will find links to bank and credit union trackers.

Thank you very much for bringing this to my attention!

:thumbsup: :yourock:

:blush:

Aw, shucks! It was mostly DemReadingDU who pointed out the links.

I miss quite a lot of stuff across these vast DU plains.

Didn't work then either. :rofl:


What? Why's everyone laughing at the thought I have a Trophy Spouse?

I have a Trophy Spouse, Car, House (Formerly), Shoes, Eyewear, Tee-shirt ensemble, 100 calorie treats, underwear... etc.

Just like everyone else! :lol:


(P.S. The spouse keeps asking where the money is. :rofl: )

:donut:

I was busy trying to determine your browser issue and just started to read the whole thread.

You have a lot of good links there, thanks!

I love all the new additions.

Bear Market Phasing

According to Dow theory.....

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

It's up to you to read more. I simply do not have any patience for his bile. - ozy

08:30 Empire Manufacturing Aug
Briefing.com 5.00
Consensus 2.20
Prior -0.55

09:00 Net Long-Term TIC Flows Jun
Briefing.com NA
Consensus $17.5B
Prior -$19.8B

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

U.S.Empire state index highest since Nov. 2007
8:31am Today

U.S. Aug. Empire state index rises to 12.1
8:30am Today

SINGAPORE – Oil prices fell below $66 a barrel Monday in Asia on investor concerns that crude demand will remain weak amid a slow global economic recovery.

.....

Friday's big selloff was triggered by a sharp drop in the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, a bad sign for crude demand, which has already been sluggish this summer.

.....

In other Nymex trading, gasoline for September delivery fell 0.70 cents to $1.93 a gallon and heating oil dropped 2.35 cents to $1.82. Natural gas for September delivery fell 4.8 cents to $3.19 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

LONDON – World stock markets and oil prices slid Monday as worries about the consumer outlook in the U.S. reined in hopes about the pace of any global economic recovery — despite the news that Japan has climbed out of recession.

In Europe, the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares was down 76.23 points, or 1.6 percent at 4,637.74 while Germany's DAX fell 95.78 points, or 1.8 percent, to 5,213.33. The CAC-40 in France was 58.69 points, or 1.7 percent, lower at 3,436.31.

Shanghai's market led sharp declines across Asia, plummeting nearly 6 percent, and futures markets pointed to big falls later when Wall Street opens. Dow futures were 157 points, or 1.7 percent, at 9,164 while the broader Standard & Poor's 500 futures fell 18.5 points, or 1.8 percent, to 987.30.

.....

A disappointing consumer confidence survey on Friday combined with a raft of downbeat earnings from the likes of Abercrombie & Fitch Co., JC Penney Corp. and Nordstrom Inc. to fuel concerns that that the world economy may not recover as swiftly as many in the markets have been hoping. Investors are fully aware that without the support of the U.S. consumer, which accounts for around 70 percent of the U.S. economy and 20 percent of the global economy.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090817/ap_on_bi_ge/world_markets_8

Aug. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese stocks fell, dragging down the Nikkei 225 Stock Average by the most since March, on concern the country’s economic recovery may falter and after U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly dropped.

Global stimulus measures helped the economy expand for the first time in more than a year last quarter, while private investment shrank, a report showed today. Sony Corp., the maker of Vaio computers, sank 4.1 percent. Nintendo Co., the world’s biggest maker of handheld game consoles, lost 2.6 percent after Credit Suisse Group AG cut its investment rating. Sumitomo Realty & Development Co., Japan’s third-largest developer, plunged 5.8 percent as housing investment slumped.

.....

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 328.72, or 3.1 percent, to 10,268.61 at the close in Tokyo, the steepest retreat since March 30. The broader Topix index slid 2.5 percent to 949.59, with six times as many stocks falling as rising. Both gauges finished last week at the highest level since October.

All benchmark gauges in Asia declined today, led by a 5.8 percent slump in China’s Shanghai Composite Index.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=afQWW35J.vKg

want.

The "News" is useless.

The Reality is what matters.

And Reality is speaking very loudly this morning.

Will they be able to silence it?

Stay Tuned.

Everybody EXCEPT US can claim some improvement! The best we can do is: Not as bad as last month or last quarter....That's got to hurt!

Think of poor Ben, hankering to be reappointed, or Geithner, hanging his career on it, or Larry Summers, who should have been taken out with Last week's trash.

You throw 2 Trillion into the Market, but it still goes south and starts to collapse after the sugar high wears off.

Maybe they need to wait about a week and then inject another 1 trillion, and buy themselves another three months.

But make no mistake, they stop printing and manipulating, the Music for this Market stops completely.

No matter what Tim Wood wants to spew at us. :)

The Amish, perhaps?

NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. stocks could extend last week's retreat after a four-week advance as the earnings season winds down and investors search for signs that consumer spending will help sustain an economic recovery.

Fewer than 50 Standard & Poor's 500 companies remain to report quarterly financial results, including the two major home improvement retailers, Lowe's Companies (LOW.N) and Home Depot Inc (HD.N). Clothing retailer Gap Inc (GPS.N) and discount chain store Target (TGT.N) are also on tap.

The recent evidence suggests consumers have not been a source of strength for improved growth.

Reports last week showed weak consumer sentiment in August and an unexpected decline in July retail sales.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090816/bs_nm/us_column_stocks_outlook

---

As for sources of strength in the global climate: it seems to be conveniently forgotten that governments across the globe have pumped vast sums of capital into banks and public utilities. So I am not buying one word of this news about certain nations "emerging from recession". We see numbers looking good for one quarter alone - and for one glaringly obvious reason.

Dow...-175....9146.00

S&P...-20.40....985.40

Nasdaq....-30....1585.00

GENEVA (Reuters) – The deal initialed last week between the United States and Switzerland over UBS (UBSN.VX) will involve the disclosure of around 5,000 holders of secret Swiss accounts, weekly newspaper NZZ am Sonntag said on Sunday.

Another Swiss weekly, Sonntag, said around 4,500 names would be handed over.

The landmark deal, ending a dispute in which the U.S. tax authorities had sued UBS to disclose 52,000 U.S. clients suspected of tax evasion, dispels a big cloud hanging over the world's second biggest wealth manager.

.....

NZZ am Sonntag said the names of those to be disclosed would be those suspected of committing tax fraud under the terms of the double taxation agreement, which obliges Switzerland to provide help if Washington seeks it in a criminal investigation.

.....

However, account-holders threatened with disclosure would be able to challenge the move in the Swiss courts, it said.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090817/bs_nm/us_ubs

---

Does anyone here know about Swiss law? Such that if someone files a suit to block their name's disclosure, would that be part of public record?

Full page spreads! :bounce:

They are correlating names with activity in Sweisse and Hong Kong, who evidently did the laundry for the Swiss....

(Debt up 4B$ FICA side just up over half a billion.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,334,810,561,448.46 + 4,328,020,320,431.61
UP 4,096,319,823.99 + UP 541,599,606.25

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 307-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.26 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.77, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,084,742 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 05/25/2009 01:14 -> 306,504,012
Currently, each of these Americans owe $37,979.19.
A family of three owes $113,937.58. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 24 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 24 reports is 5,726,582,494.93.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,581,265,995.95.
The average for the last 31 days would be 4,433,483,221.88.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 142 reports in 205 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.24B$ per report, 5.05B$/day so far.
There were 217 reports in 317 days of FY2009 averaging 7.55B$ per report, 5.17B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,256 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.4 and 18.2T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
08/13/2009 11,662,830,881,880.07 BHO (UP 1,035,953,832,966.99 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,638,105,984,967.60 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
07/24/2009 -000,124,358,216.07 ---
07/27/2009 +000,077,777,899.40 ------------******* Mon
07/28/2009 +000,420,333,618.55 ------------********
07/29/2009 +000,733,026,310.02 ------------********
07/30/2009 -026,031,384,097.19 -
07/31/2009 +095,534,108,940.65 ------------**********
08/03/2009 -005,083,538,887.00 -- Mon
08/04/2009 -000,056,382,262.77 ----
08/05/2009 +000,017,974,078.47 ------------*******
08/06/2009 -000,578,106,269.92 ---
08/07/2009 +000,290,467,707.81 ------------********
08/10/2009 +000,222,135,743.03 ------------******** Mon
08/11/2009 +000,246,752,500.45 ------------********
08/12/2009 +000,081,638,592.29 ------------*******
08/13/2009 +004,096,319,823.99 ------------*********

69,846,765,481.71 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power.
Since then US borrowed $1,998,199,078,621.00 in last 329 days.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4014451&mesg_id=4014480

It just occurred to me that Bush added almost 5T to the debt in 8 years. Obama has been in office only 7 months, and the debt has grown another Trillion. WOW.

This fiscal year is going to look ugly ugly ugly.

...the government. It is then cited by Republicans as evidence of government irresponsibility. The Democratic Party has become the party of the financial sector. Can the Democratic Party represent rich and poor?

It's what's your name, what's your angle in our corruption?

The media has been bought and sold for years.
The Republicans are 100% sellouts.
And just enough Dems have sold out in order to stop some legislation or another. (e.g. healthcare)

The transfer of money to the treasury, then from the treasury to the bankers, and from the treasury to the Federal Reserve was and is stupid, but who's going to tell us that? The media? HAH!

(Debt up .0718B$, FICA debt we owe to ourselves, up 6.9B$.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,334,828,367,708.06 + 4,334,954,715,567.74
UP 17,806,259.60 + UP 6,934,395,136.13

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 307-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.26 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.77, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,091,942 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 05/25/2009 01:14 -> 306,504,012
Currently, each of these Americans owe $38,000.94.
A family of three owes $114,002.83. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 24 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 24 reports is 5,866,342,347.30.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,693,073,877.84.
The average for the last 31 days would be 4,541,684,397.91.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 143 reports in 206 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.24B$ per report, 5.06B$/day so far.
There were 218 reports in 318 days of FY2009 averaging 7.55B$ per report, 5.17B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,255 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.4 and 18.2T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
08/14/2009 11,669,783,083,275.80 BHO (UP 1,042,906,034,362.72 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,645,058,186,363.40 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
07/27/2009 +000,077,777,899.40 ------------******* Mon
07/28/2009 +000,420,333,618.55 ------------********
07/29/2009 +000,733,026,310.02 ------------********
07/30/2009 -026,031,384,097.19 -
07/31/2009 +095,534,108,940.65 ------------**********
08/03/2009 -005,083,538,887.00 -- Mon
08/04/2009 -000,056,382,262.77 ----
08/05/2009 +000,017,974,078.47 ------------*******
08/06/2009 -000,578,106,269.92 ---
08/07/2009 +000,290,467,707.81 ------------********
08/10/2009 +000,222,135,743.03 ------------******** Mon
08/11/2009 +000,246,752,500.45 ------------********
08/12/2009 +000,081,638,592.29 ------------*******
08/13/2009 +004,096,319,823.99 ------------*********
08/14/2009 +000,017,806,259.60 ------------*******

69,988,929,957.38 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power.
Since then US borrowed $2,005,151,280,016.73 in last 330 days.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4018479&mesg_id=4018499

Aug. 17 (Bloomberg) -- The world’s biggest pension funds lost confidence in stocks as the best long-term investment, cutting holdings or leaving them unchanged during the steepest rally since the 1930s.

Funds overseeing money for California teachers and public workers, Dutch government retirees and South Korean private- sector employees reduced their target weightings for equities this year, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The rest of the 10 largest kept them the same. U.K. pensions have cut stock allocations to the lowest since 1974, according to Citigroup Inc. Managers handling Oxford and Cambridge University professors’ assets have been selling shares as the MSCI World Index posted a five-month, 53 percent rally.

.....

“The real issue is they don’t want the volatility they had,” said Louise Kay, head of U.K. institutional business development at Standard Life Investments Ltd. in Edinburgh, which oversaw the equivalent of $34 billion for U.K. pension firms as of December. “Funds normally have to look whether they rebalance or not after one asset class loses value, and this time they are wondering whether this is the right thing to do.”

.....

Four of the world’s seven largest pension funds -- Sacramento, California-based California State Teachers’ Retirement System and California Public Employees’ Retirement System; Heerlen, Netherlands-based Stichting Pensioenfonds ABP; and South Korea’s National Pension Service -- have cut their equity target allocations, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Calstrs, Calpers

The $119 billion California State Teachers’ Retirement System, which oversees the pensions of 833,000 members, said on July 21 that it had temporarily shifted 5 percent from equities to fixed income, real estate and private equity, and permanently moved 5 percent from stocks to “absolute return” products that target gains even as markets fall.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aGIATunT3Aao

Ritholtz posts some historical drivel:

“The spring of 1930 marks the end of a period of grave concern…American business is steadily coming back to a normal level of prosperity.”
– Julius Barnes, head of Hoover’s National Business Survey Conference, March 16, 1930

“While the crash only took place six months ago, I am convinced we have now passed through the worst — and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover. There has been no significant bank or industrial failure. That danger, too, is safely behind us.”

– Herbert Hoover, May 1, 1930

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/hoover-on-the-recovery/

And to think an institute was named after this man... - ozy.

From Ritholtz:

In the world of commercial real estate, we don’t use the clever residential phrase ‘Jingle mail;’ Rather, the preferred term is “Default & Forfeiture.”

The WSJ:

‘Jingle mail” isn’t just for homeowners anymore. From San Diego to Dearborn, Mich., an increasing number of hotel owners in the U.S. market are simply walking away from money-losing properties and forfeiting them to lenders.

The rise in hotel forfeitures is the product of the worst hotel market since the early 1990s, with revenue declining by double-digit percentages. That has pushed the value of many hotels to less than the balance on their mortgages. Just like homeowners who mail their house keys back to the bank — so-called jingle mail — hotel owners see no hope in renegotiating their loans . . .

To be sure, a delinquency doesn’t immediately or always translate to foreclosure. It often takes several months for a lender to foreclose on a property with a delinquent mortgage. And some delinquent borrowers manage to negotiate with lenders to avoid foreclosure or file for bankruptcy protection to thwart it.

What is striking about the current trend is that several of the companies forfeiting hotels are publicly traded.“

Ba-Da-Ching!! (rimshot)

Thank you, thank you...try the veal, tip your servers. I'll be here all week.

(not really, it's just canned patter)

Hi to All

TD

Glad to see you!
:hi:

I don't believe in market calls, and trying to time turns is a perilous game. But most savvy people I know have been skeptical of this rally, beyond the initial strong bounce off the bottom. It has not had the characteristics of a bull market. Volumes have been underwhelming, no new leadership group has emerged, and as greybeards like to point out, comparatively short, large amplitude rallies are a bear market speciality.

In addition, this one has had some troubling features. Most notable has been the almost insistent media cheerleading, particularly from atypical venues for that sort of thing, like Bloomberg. Investors who are not at all the conspiracy-minded sort wonder if there has been an official hand in the "almost nary a bad word will be said" news posture. Tyler Durden has regularly claimed that major trading desks have been actively squeezing shorts. There have been far too many days with suspicious end of session rallies.

The fall in the markets overnight, particularly the 5.8% drop in Shanghai, seems significant in combination with other factors:

More bank woes. We may be two thirds of the way through the losses, but it could also be as little as half. And despite the stress test baloney, the banking system is undercapitalized by a large margin. Even if the remaining writedowns are smaller in absolute terms than what is, past, they dig deeper into depleted equity bases. Colonial Bank, a $25 billion bank taken out last Friday, was deemed well capitalized until recently. We noted its much bigger neighbor, $140 billion Regions Bank, similarly deemed to be well capitalized, has effectively said it is insolvent How many other banks are broke save thanks to overly permissive accounting? And as we have noted before, the IMF in a study of 124 banking crises, found that regulatory forbearance, which is econ speak for letting the halt and lame limp along rather than taking them out, is far more costly, both in terms of lost growth and size of the ultimate bank recapitalization, than earlier action.

Consumers tapped out. The lousy retail sales report was a reminder of a rather central fact most have chosen to forget.

.....

Lack of leadership. The health care fiasco is going to be a defining event for Obama, in a negative way. His inability to respond effectively to simply absurd distortions of his plan and of the record of public supported programs overseas (including that many are government funded but still privately run, for instance) may dispel the illusion that he is or can be an effective leader. His banking policy, which is vital to recovery, became hostage to Geithner and Summer's deep loyalty to the industry, and his lack or interest in rocking any boats. All Team Obama has done on the banking front is write a lot of blank check, hold some bogus "stress tests" in lieu of doing the real thing, and raise a stink on a few symbolic issues to try to paper over the failure to embark on real and badly needed reforms.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/08/is-this-start-of-big-one.html

hit 1000. That was my sell point. Now I am looking for a point of entry again. Getting close to making up what I lost last year.

Hate to bet against the U.S. economy, but I feel it is a house of cards.

Just know you are playing in a rigged game.

The main reason behind this artificial Bubble is to get every last bit of sucker income the Public had left before it collapses again.

Don't let them take back what you've gotten back.

I don't know how Yves keeps her cool, I truly don't.

Especially the comments about the lack of leadership from Team O'Wall Street.

Obama has been all bark and no bite. NOTHING has been done. A few clunkers off the street, a little improvement in Ford production, and in a month or so it will all be gone and we'll be back to square minus-one, or maybe minus-three, or maybe minus-a-couple-of-trillion-bucks.

Health care -- no debate. It's like Obama took lessons from John Kerry on how to defeat the swiftboat liars.

He loves the sound of his own voice, and he's had oh so many lovely opportunities to enjoy that pleasure. He's forgotten that he was elected to DO SOMETHING.

A few years ago, I had a professor who talked and talked and talked. The class was a small seminar grad course, about 8 or 10 students. We met in a conference room, sat chummily around a big table, and were supposed to discuss a series of 20th century philosophers and writers -- Freud, Foucault, Lukasz, etc. Most of the time, Dr. S------- would start the 3-hour session with a variation on "Okay, this week we really need to discuss the material. I'm not going to take up the whole session with my blathering." He would then begin to blather and continue for about an hour and a half, until we reached break time. Some of us literally fell asleep. Just put our heads down on the table and dozed off. Dr. S------- didn't seem to notice or care. And after a 15 or 20 minute break, we'd come back and he'd do the same thing.

Finally, one night, I dared to interrupt him. I held up the text then under discussion -- iirc, it was Eagleton's "Ideology of the Aesthetic" -- and I said, "Hold on a minute. When are we going to discuss this stuff? I want to know what the hell all of this shit is supposed to MEAN."

Dr. S------- just laughed and said, "Welcome to grad school!" and went on blathering.

I got so angry that I brought a tape recorder to class the next time, set it right on the table in front of me, and recorded his non-stop drivel. In my next paper, I put my feelings into words:

If, as was brought up in class in response to my declaration that I hadn’t a clue as to what Eagleton was talking about, if these great twentieth century thinkers were engaged in the struggle to create a new human being, one who could, in the Marxist philosophy, achieve true species-being, and if the goal was to bring the amorphous proletariat to class-consciousness so it could achieve species-being, what the hell are we doing -- doing -- to move humanity to this end? Or is, as some of the thinkers thought, the process of becoming the same as being and is the end the same as the means and therefore the means the same as the ends and so we don’t need to do anything to reach the end because we’re already there because we’re not there but only going there which is the same thing, so to speak?

To illustrate my point, I quoted ONE SENTENCE from Dr. S-------'s monologue of the previous class session:

. . . And that is the place we are now in in relation to culture, that you are always going to be in a position to and as all these thinkers and I think, as Gary started to say and I just happened to pick up on, that whatever sets of values, practices, ideologies, meanings, mythologies, religious systems, no matter which ones you begin to evoke, given the predicament of isolated individual psychologies and the idea of the human subject, the idea of there being humans who have -- who know of other human beings, they’re in this paradoxical, contradictory and often conflicted situations that your enchantment becomes somebody else’s disempowerment because you can never get them to agree with your enchantment and when you do start to get them to agree with your enchantment or with your art or your sets of belief, you then wind up with a.) the kind of perversely human fact that once you have an engagement with some form of desire we then have a natural reaction to it, we find its antithesis, but secondly this whole idea that any form of thinking or any form of construction of a reality from without becomes a system that others might not agree with and it raises the huge, another way of thinking of this is this, which Foucault is going to plunge us right into when we get into that, is that once we have created this notion or once we have arrived at this notion that the world has various ways of representing itself and we representing ourselves to the world, this specter and this terror and this force and again and again and again all the characterizations you want of a form of representation exists in our midst and representation in and of itself becomes ideolog--- is an aesthetic phenomena that becomes infused with a kind of ideology that necessarily becomes a diminishment of reality or a competition of reality or a substitution of reality and on and on and on. . . . .

I feel as if we've collectively stepped back into that conference room. Only now it's Dr. O---- spewing the bullshit, the rest of us are putting our heads down and falling asleep

AND NOTHING IS HAPPENING.



Tansy Gold

That says it in a nutshell.

New York state's attorney general, Andrew Cuomo, is expected to file a lawsuit as soon as Monday against Charles Schwab Corp. alleging civil fraud related to the brokerage firm's marketing and sales of auction-rate securities, according to people familiar with the situation.

The move has been expected since Mr. Cuomo told the San Francisco company last month that it would face a lawsuit unless it agreed to a settlement that included buying back the securities from investors who were stuck with them when the market froze last year. No settlement has been announced, and Schwab maintains it did nothing wrong and couldn't have predicted the collapse in the auction-rate market.

.....

Schwab has denied allegations that anyone at the firm could have foreseen the auction-rate securities market's impending calamity. The company has blamed its clients' losses on large Wall Street underwriters of the auction-rate securities, claiming that Schwab was merely a distributor and was deceived by underwriters about the market's health.

Mr. Cuomo is expected to file as part of the lawsuit transcripts of recordings between Schwab brokers and customers that he alleges show how the brokers misrepresented of auction-rate securities as easy-to-sell alternatives to cash.

The attorney general also contends that Schwab failed to train brokers about the risks that the auction-rate securities market could stop functioning, locking up people's money for years.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125047465385135733.html

Report: Guaranty Bank Bids Due Monday from Calculated Risk:

The Financial Times is reporting that regulators have ask prospective buyers to submit bids for Guaranty Bank on Monday.

Guaranty Bank had $14.4 billion in assets at the end of Q1.

From Reuters: Regulators want Guaranty bids by Monday: report



more information at link above...

Really good statistics!

Track your bank here
http://banktracker.investigativereportingworkshop.org/banks

Track your credit union here
http://banktracker.investigativereportingworkshop.org/credit-unions


I see that while my banks troubled asset ratio is double the national median, my credit union troubled asset ratio is just slightly above the national median. However, the CU's ratio has doubled from a year ago when it was lower than the national median. uh oh.

Here is the link for the big Colonial Bank that closed this weekend
http://banktracker.investigativereportingworkshop.org/banks/alabama/montgomery/colonial-bank



edit to add methodology

BankTracker methodology
http://banktracker.investigativereportingworkshop.org/stories/2009/mar/16/banktracker-methodology

Methodology for credit union analysis
http://banktracker.investigativereportingworkshop.org/stories/2009/jun/11/methodology-credit-union-analysis

8/14/09 Unofficial FDIC problem bank list
DISCLAIMER: This is an unofficial list, the information is from public sources and while deemed to be reliable is not guaranteed. No warranty or representation, expressed or implied, is made as to the accuracy of the information contained herein and same is subject to errors and omissions. This is not intended as investment advice. Please contact CR with any errors.

See description below table for Class and Cert (and a link to FDIC ID system).

The table is wide - use scroll bars to see all information!

NOTE: Columns are sortable - click on column header (Assets, State, Bank Name, Date, etc.)

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/08/problem-bank-list-unofficial-aug-14.html

The Big banks, Citibank, BofA, State Street, Goldman, are not listed. And I'm fairly sure they have been cooking the books and hiding the fraud.

You can sometimes get good/better service from a smaller neighborhood bank and they seem more willing to work with you based on YOU + a credit score rather than just your credit score. I'd think the same would apply to small businesses too.

My tiny neighborhood bank is like that.

I'm sure the mega corpwhore welfare banks are just laughing their TARP gobbling asses off as they watch the these smaller banks sink while they artificially float. I'd think less competition would be very good for them.

The text on the left-hand column is cut off. Any clues?

and both are fine. What browser do you use?

I use a Mac.

Anybody else here use Safari that we could ask to test on their computer?

using Safari 4.0.2

No problem with seeing the whole page with firefox...

seems the local bank where I live and have a small account at is at 24.6% troubled assets (not good). I'll be closing this thing out very soon no doubt!

Thanks again!!

CountAllVotes

It seems like all the banks have a T.A.R. of about 22. There really is no better choice, and they all area banks have received money through the TARP program. Credit unions may be better, but my C.U. (while still low in T.A.R.), has doubled its T.A.R. since last year. That to me, is not a good sign.

:(

I have accts. at two different credit unions - one of them has a T.A.R. of 7; the other has T.A.R. of 4. I'll likely be moving money to the one with the T.A.R. of 4 soon and that includes the funds at the bank with the 24.6 rating. I'm glad to know that this is fairly common in other places these days.

I really do prefer credit unions. :D

Thanks again!

:dem:

S&P 500 -21.10 984.70 8/17 6:46am S&P 500 FUTURES

NASDAQ -28.25 1586.75 8/17 6:34am NASDAQ FUTURES

Dow Jones -176.00 9145.00 8/17 6:32am


Make no mistake, we will probably get the Morning Dump, The Fascist Float, and the Late Day Miracle.

The Recession will still be over, The Recovery will still be here, and The Media will numb you to thinking even the worst news is good.

And it will all still be an Illusion.

Because Illusion is the only thing they have left.

This whole damn thing is Collapsing.

Whether they are going to give you the Courtesy of actually SEEING it or not.

Good Luck Marketeers.

We Are Going to Need it.

From Jack Katzanek at the Press-Enterprise: Time -- and benefits -- running out for Inland jobless:


found at Calculated Risk

and, all things concerned, might not be a wise thing?

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 79.383 Change +0.552 (+0.71%)

US Dollar: Is This the Turn Markets Have Been Waiting For?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/currency/eur_fundamentals/US_Dollar__Is_This_the_1250284748851.html

The US Dollar fell near fresh year-to-date lows versus the Euro and other major counterparts, but a sharp end-of-week reversal suggests that the downtrodden Greenback could stage a larger recovery. Impressive S&P 500 rallies played a large role in dollar weakness. A late-week US University of Michigan Consumer Confidence nonetheless proved sharply disappointing, and the key risk sentiment barometer turned notably lower into the week’s close. The strongly-correlated safe-haven US currency continues to take its cues from risky assets, and a true turnaround in stocks could herald an accelerated USD correction. We feel that a sustained US Dollar rally is almost inevitable, but timing the turn remains extremely difficult and we’ve thus far been early in our calls for Greenback strength. Increasingly one-sided sentiment nonetheless that Friday’s USD rally could be the start of a bigger move.

Limited US economic event risk in the week ahead leaves volatility expectations noticeably lower, but the dip hardly precludes short-term breakouts. Last week’s string of top-tier economic reports underlined the fact that forex traders still care about economic data, but market reactions are not always intuitive. Indeed, the dollar has frequently rallied on a number of disappointing US economic data releases. The strange dynamic owes itself to the USD’s strong link to risk sentiment and the S&P 500. When the S&P gapped lower following a clearly worse-than-forecast University of Michigan Consumer Confidence report, the US Dollar rallied sharply against the Euro and other key counterparts. If we can expect similar price action in the days ahead, US Dollar bulls should hope that domestic economic sentiment has likewise taken a turn for the worse. Recent Consumer Confidence figures suggest future consumption-linked reports may similarly disappoint.

Foreseeable highlights in the week ahead include Treasury International Capital (TICs) data, Housing Starts and Building Permits reports, and an end-of-week Existing Home Sales release. The first report may prove especially interesting to recently-skittish US Treasury Bond traders, as it will underline the health of foreign demand for US Dollar asset classes. Much was made of a “failed” US Treasury auction at the end of July, where demand for 2 and 5-year Treasury Note was sharply lower than expected. Commentators suggested that supply of US Government debt had far outstripped demand and Treasuries tumbled on the news. Recent 30-year bond auction results nonetheless showed healthy demand for long-term debt—that which is particularly susceptible to fears of excessive government deficits and creditworthiness. We here at DailyFX could not help but notice that the news coincided with the Fed’s aggressive balance sheet expansion on the week. Indeed, the Fed’s Quantitative Easing measures have explicitly purchased Treasuries and likely overstated the health of demand for US debt. The TICs report will provide a breakdown of foreign purchases and demystify the source of robust 30-year bond demand, and any signs of weakness in foreign purchases could have noteworthy effects on the US Dollar and domestic stock markets.

Prominent housing data could likewise drive volatility in the US S&P 500 and the Greenback, but results for the choppy data series are especially difficult to handicap. We will clearly keep a close eye on the S&P and other risky asset classes through upcoming trade. Whether or not the US dollar can finally stage a comeback will likely depend on the trajectory of financial risk sentiment.



...more...

Pound Sunk By Declining Home Prices; Dollar, Yen Gain As Global Growth Outlook Dims

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Pound_Sunk_By_Declining_Home_1250503483978.html

The pound remained under assault as a drop in home prices, global growth concerns and the extension of the quantitative easing program are all adding weight. Rightmove LLC reported that home prices in the U.K. fell by 2.2% which was the biggest decline in eight months. The early release would add to the current bearish sentiment that begun when the BoE extended their asset purchase program by £50 billion. The GBPUSD has broken below support of the 50-Day SMA at 1.6458, which had held since March. Therefore, we could see a test of 1.6000 where we will also find Fibo support at 1.6034-38.2% extension of 1.4395-1.7044.

The Euro has also seen an extension of its losses from Friday despite an encouraging trade balance report. The trade surplus for the region widened to 4.6 billion from 1.9 billion as exports rose by 7.5 billion. However, the seasonal adjusted reading missed forecasts of 1.3 billion with a reading of 1.0 billion, tempering expectations of future growth. The single currency continues to see its fortunes dictated by risk sentiment and with global equity markets under pressure we could see continued losses for the euro today. Rising exports adds to signs that the regions economy is emerging from a recession as we saw second quarter growth from its two biggest economies in Germany and France. However, the struggles of regional stalwarts like Spain and smaller developing nations may limit the potential for the broader economy. The 50-Day SMA at 1.4088 has been a key support level and a break below could open the door for a test of 1.4000.

Asian equity markets set the tone to start the day dropping over 3% despite the Japan’s economic recession coming to an end. Japanese GDP rose for the first time in five quarters but missed expectations of 1.0% with a print of 0.9% as domestic demand fell 0.7%. The main source of growth has been government spending and concerns are that it will be hard pressed to have a sustainable recovery without domestic growth returning as the impact from stimulus efforts dissipates. Yet, the Yen rallied on the flight to safety as the growth data added to prevailing concerns that a global recovery may not be sustainable without a rebound in labor markets and consumer demand.

The dollar rally continued overnight as Chinese growth concerns added to the dimming optimism that was generated by the dip in U.S. consumer sentiment. Probably the two most important engines of future global growth are the Chinese economy and the U.S. consumer and with both still not back to pre-recession levels, the scope of a recovery will be limited. We are definitely starting to see a pull back in risk appetite which continues to be a supporting factor or the greenback. Asian and European equity markets saw significant losses and Dow futures are trading lower by over 150 points. Adding to concerns is the closing of several U.S. lenders by regulators as we are starting to see the slumping commercial real estate market and weak credit card receivables have an impact. The Empire manufacturing report due today may generate some optimism as it is expected to improve to 2.20 from -0.55 which would be the first positive reading since April, 2008. Nevertheless, the prevailing pessimism should be supporting factor throughout the day and possible the week.

...more...

Lowes sales and profits lower....No one left to lay-off?

Credit card write-offs increase ......... Something like 5% in default ='s 10% in actual write-downs!!

VIX starting to jump again ..... Broccoli greens = gas.......Green shoots, where?

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE57D49S20090814
Insiders are cashing out!!

NY Manufacturing Index rises......But since we don't really make much anymore, SO WHAT!

Clap your hands, everybody! Let Tinkerbell live!

First hotmail, now this site acting up.

More like the market's doing the fascist float again today, there isn't a single investor/speculator remaining in the markets with enough money to move this manipulated hedge fund world-o-corruption. Oh wait a minute, Tim Wood says that people who believe in manipulation are conspiracy kooks so I guess his fat ass Uncle Fester looking repugnicant self is correct and I'm just a lying piece of shit.

Weird looking graph if you go back to last week. Big discontinuity where the weekend would be. Was there some bad news on Saturday or Sunday?

Dow: -2%, Nasdaq: -2.75%, S&P 500: -2.43%

and that's after losing one on Thursday in Georgia(?). The shinola just rubbed off the shit, if you know what I mean. They cannot even pretend it's getting better any more.

I've seen some rumors elsewhere.

edit
Or maybe it is Corus Bank? Maybe both banks?

8/17/09
In a jarring reminder that hope does not pay scheduled interest payments, Readers' Digest announced it is about to file for bankruptcy. And since bondholders don't accept hope in lieu of cash, the company announced that not only would it not make its $27 million coupon payment but that it would undergo a prearranged Chapter 11 process in which its secured lenders would end up owning the company concurrent with a 75% haircut in their holdings.

Luckily someone benefitted from the deal:

"At the time, many analysts believed Ripplewood had out-negotiated Reader's Digest and faulted both its board of directors and its financial advisors, Goldman Sachs, which received an $11 million fee for its advice, and former Goldman banker Michael Lynch, who received a $2.75 million fee, for failing to get a better deal for shareholders. Lawsuits on their behalf against Reader's Digest, Ripplewood and its co-investors were later settled. (Ripplewood, Goldman and Miller Buckfire all declined to comment for this story.)"
more...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/readers-digest-file-bankruptcy


Press Release
http://news.prnewswire.com/DisplayReleaseContent.aspx?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/08-17-2009/0005078587&EDATE=

RD was big into leaning rightwards for so long, it must have fallen over, and can't get up again.

RD was big into leaning rightwards for so long, it must have fallen over, and can't get up again.

She talked us into a subscription. We subscribed for about a decade, then stopped because no one had time to read magazines.