STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday August 26

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday August 26, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Under Indictment = 2
Financial Sector Officials In Prison = 6

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 25, 2009

Dow... 9,539.29 +30.01 (+0.32%)
Nasdaq... 2,024.23 +6.25 (+0.31%)
S&P 500... 1,028.00 +2.43 (+0.24%)
Gold future... 946.00 +2.30 (+0.24%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.43 -0.04 (-1.18%)
30-Year Bond 4.22 -0.05 (-1.13%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

The Wall Street-Main Street Paradox
BY FRANK BARBERA

These days, many folks are feeling justifiably befuddled, as the contrast between Wall Street and Main Street is perhaps as striking a divergence as what was seen before the 2008 Credit Crisis bust. To be sure, the stock market continues to perform well, and at least on the surface the economic headlines appear to have reached a plateau. Yet below the surface the outlook for 2010 is taking on a grimmer and grimmer profile. Going back to December of 2008, I wrote a piece entitled “Tracking the “Official” Recession.”

I stated that the odds would be high that the current ‘great recession’ would take the shape of a “W”, implying a “Double Dip” contraction. Back then, I stated,

“In my view, a more accurate forecast might suggest that a “35 to 40” month economic contraction makes more sense, implying that the present period of great financial turmult may not end until early 2011. Yet, in contemplating these figures, a repeat of the 1980 to 1982 scenario in my view is starting to make the most sense. This is the so called “Double-Dip” recession outcome, where we may see an important economic “statistical low” in the early portion of 2009 (say April, May 2009), followed by a lengthy statistical rebound (perhaps 12 months – i.e. May 2010), followed in turn by a second, even more strongly declining contraction phase beginning in the latter half of 2010. It would not surprise me to see that second phase last a good 20 months in its own right implying that the final contraction bottom may not be seen before early 2012.”

Of course as it happened, the economic data began to turn up in March – April of this year, and has been on an understated bounce over the last few months. In today’s headlines, we learned that Consumer Confidence as tracked by the conference improved to a reading of 54.1 in August, up from a revised reading of 47.40 in July. Within the Consumer Confidence report, the Present Situation Index increased to a reading of 24.90 in August, up from 23.30 in July. At the same time, the Consumer Expectations Index rose to 73.50 in August, up from 63.40 in July. In the chart below, I show the steady increase in the Forward Expectation chart along with the 12 month Rate of Change in Forward Expectations (see lower clip for ROC). At present, I find that their remains a lot of upside momentum behind the current resurgence in the consumer outlook, which in my view implies that the current trend is likely to be maintained for another two to three months. In fact, in my view, the Forward Expectations component -- the leading component of the survey -- is likely to rise toward a value in the 88 to 96 range (see little dashed box) before the current advance is complete. Once Forward Expectations have reached a value in that zone, I believe things will be in the neighborhood from which point a renewed downside contraction may emerge.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

I was reading The Pareto Principle and the Next Wave Down in Real Estate by Charles Hugh Smith, link: http://www.oftwominds.com/blogaug09/housing-pareto08-09.html and it contained this that seems to have come form the Onion:


All we need for a complete bubble reflation is people avidly gaming the system... oh wait, we have that, too. A recent Time magazine cover story on Las Vegas contained this informative tidbit (courtesy of Michael Goodfellow):


(Realtor) Boemio specializes in short selling, in a particularly Vegas way. Basically, she finds clients who owe more on their house than the house is worth (and that's about 60% of homeowners in Las Vegas) and sells them a new house similar to the one they've been living in at half the price they paid for their old house. Then she tells them to stop paying the mortgage on their old place until the bank becomes so fed up that it's willing to let the owner sell the house at a huge loss rather than dragging everyone through foreclosure. Since that takes about nine months, many of the owners even rent out their old house in the interim, pocketing a profit.
Hmm, isn't this the same recipe of froth, low down payments, cheap, easy mortgage money and scamming which got us in trouble the last time? Only the lenders lose, but then now that Ginnie Mae and FHA have stepped up to replace the disgraced, bankrupt shells of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, then it really isn't the lenders taking the risks, it's the U.S. taxpayer (again).

My question is: Where in the hell would anyone find a bank or lending institution STUPID ENOUGH to lend them money to purchase the second home? Where is this promised oversight?


This realtor person and her cronies should be hanged by a lamp post. It appears we have not learned from the current mess we are in and so are very likely to repeat our mistakes. Is this a great country, OR WHAT?

This concludes my rant for the day. We will now return to our regularly scheduled programing. Thank you for your patience. Have a good day!

Whether it can still be done is debatable...banks are gullible, or greedy, otherwise they wouldn't be in this situation. You don't do this unless or until the value of the house (which you are current on) declines sufficiently and the target house also declined sufficiently. Otherwise, if you are already in foreclosure, it's too late. This way you get perhaps a better house for a better price and better terms, rent on the first house, and clear out the huge overhead on the first house.

Some People will try anything, ethical, legal, or not.

But we gutted enforcement, since the market regulates itself.

08:30 Durable Orders Jul
Briefing.com 2.8%
Consensus 3.2%
Prior -2.5%

08:30 Durables, Ex Transportation Jul
Briefing.com 0.4%
Consensus 1.0%
Prior 1.1%

10:00 New Home Sales Jul
Briefing.com 380K
Consensus 390K
Prior 384K

10:30 Crude Inventories 08/21
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior -8.40M

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

U.S. July durable-goods orders up 4.9%
8:30am Today

U.S. July core capital equipment orders fall 0.3%
8:30am Today

U.S. July durables shipments up 2.0%
8:30am Today

U.S. July durables inventories fall 0.8%
8:30am Today

U.S. July durables orders increase most in 2 years
8:30am Today

U.S. July durables orders better than 4% expected
8:30am Today

U.S. July durable ex-transportation orders up 0.8%
8:30am Today

U.S. July new-home sales up 9,6% to 433,000 rate
10:00am Today

U.S. new-home sales better than 395,000 expected
10:00am Today

Gasoline inventories fall 1.7 million barrels
10:31am Today

Distillate inventories rise 800,000 barrels
10:31am Today

U.S. crude inventories gain 200,000 barrels: EIA
10:30am Today

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia – Oil prices hovered above $72 a barrel Wednesday in Asia after tumbling more than 3 percent overnight, weighed down by concerns over slowing demand in the United States, the world's largest energy consumer.

Benchmark crude for October delivery was up 43 cents at $72.48 a barrel by late afternoon Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Prices briefly touched $75 per barrel Tuesday for the first time in 10 months, buoyed by new signals of rising U.S. consumer confidence, but fell back to settle at $72.05 after a new report from Washington projected a cumulative $7 trillion U.S. deficit for the next decade.

.....

In other Nymex trading, gasoline for September delivery gained 0.76 cent to $2.0172 a gallon and heating oil added 0.76 cent to $1.8635 a gallon. Natural gas was little changed at $2.881 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

Now, let's see, did traders anticipate this result and already "price it into the market?" Or are they worried about oil prices or...who the hell knows?

on eidt: meant to comment on durable goods. Oops!

Oil futures end up $1.06 at $72.49/brl on Nymex
2:47pm Today

MONTGOMERY, Ala. – Colonial BancGroup Inc., the Montgomery-based real estate lender whose banking unit was shut down by the government and sold to BB&T Corp. earlier this month, has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

The company listed debts of $380 million and assets of just $45 million in its Tuesday filing in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in the Middle District of Alabama. A list of creditors holding the 20 largest unsecured claims shows that Bank of New York Trust Co. has a $253.7 million claim and Bank of New York Trust Co. of Fla., a $104.1 million claim.

With about $25 billion in deposits, Colonial Bank represents the largest U.S. bank failure so far this year, and the sixth-largest in U.S. history. The FDIC sold most of its deposits, 346 branches in five states and about $22 billion in assets to BB&T. Colonial Bank's collapse is expected to cost the insurance fund $2.8 billion.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090826/ap_on_bi_ge/us_colonial_bancgroup_bankruptcy

now comes the criminal prosecution....

TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan's exports slipped in July as annual drops in exports to the United States and China accelerated, in a sign that the impact of stimulus measures in major economies worldwide may be starting to wane.

Exports to the United States have lagged improvements in shipments to Asia as the world's largest economy struggles to pick up steam, while the yen's rise against the dollar also played a part.

But exports to the fast-growing Chinese economy also fell at a faster annual pace as a surge in state spending and loan growth failed to mask tepid domestic demand there.

.....

Compared with a year earlier, Japan's exports fell 36.5 percent in July. That was slightly less than the median forecast for a 38.6 percent fall in July, but faster than the 35.7 percent annual decline in June.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090826/bs_nm/us_japan_economy

Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Toyota Motor Corp., Japan’s biggest automaker, plans its first long-term closure of a domestic assembly line as car sales in the country fall to the lowest in more than 30 years.

Toyota, which cut domestic production 49 percent through June, will reduce output by about 220,000 vehicles by shutting down a line at its Takaoka plant from the fiscal first quarter of next year through the second half of calendar year 2011, spokeswoman Ririko Takeuchi said by phone today.

.....

The carmaker had a domestic market share of about 40 percent last fiscal year, excluding its Lexus brand. Toyota’s sales in Japan fell 23 percent through July. Honda’s domestic sales declined 12 percent in the same period, and Nissan’s dropped 22 percent.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=avdxlCpHth4I

WASHINGTON – In a chilling forecast, the White House is predicting a 10-year federal deficit of $9 trillion — more than the sum of all previous deficits since America's founding. And it says by the next decade's end the national debt will equal three-quarters of the entire U.S. economy.

But before President Barack Obama can do much about it, he'll have to weather recession aftershocks including unemployment that his advisers said Tuesday is still heading for 10 percent.

Overall, White House and congressional budget analysts said in a brace of new estimates that the economy will shrink by 2.5 to 2.8 percent this year even as it begins to climb out of the recession. Those estimates reflect this year's deeper-than-expected economic plunge.

.....

The summer analyses by the White House budget office and by the Congressional Budget Office reached similarly bleak conclusions. The CBO's 10-year deficit figure was smaller — $7 trillion — but that is because it assumes that all tax cuts put into place in the administration of former President George W. Bush will expire on schedule by 2011. Obama's budget baseline, however, hews to his proposal to keep the tax cuts in place for families earning less than $250,000 a year.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090826/ap_on_go_pr_wh/us_obama_economy

http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-2009-8
Today The White House confirmed news that leaked last Friday, about the deficit being wider than they had previously estimated. As you can see, while the deficit as a percentage of GDP has been revised down for this year -- due to less bailout spending -- it's been bumped up every year going out to 2019. Next year the hike is big -- from 8.6% to 10%.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/blogs/beltway-confidential/Former-CBO-director-doubts-new-deficit-numbers-54600412.html
Former CBO director doubts new deficit numbers
Former Congressional Budget Office Director Douglas Holtz-Eakin says the Obama administration's claim that the Obama's updated figures on the deficit that will be released Tuesday are "spin and nothing more."

http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/
But there's nothing bold or out-of-the-box about it. It's simply the work of a one-trick pony. And when the markets go down again, which is inevitable given unemployment, foreclosures and consumer spending, Bernanke will be caught in the headlights, with no option but to pull the same stunt again. And again. It's all he knows how to do. It's a mighty expensive way to purchase temporary relief, but then, it’s not on his tab. Numbers published today by the White House and the CBO say the country faces a cumulative $9 trillion deficit from 2010-2019. You have Bernanke to thank for that. And those numbers are low-balled to the point of ridicule. The first thing I thought about right off the bat when seeing them was TARP inspector general Neil Barofsky's estimate of teh potential costs of that program alone. He put it at $23.7 trillion.

Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) -- French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s plan to shun bankers who don’t accept pay limits was met with alarm by analysts and investors in the U.S., where Citigroup Inc. and six other bailed-out companies are being grilled by the government on how they compensate top-paid executives.

“From now on, France will give no mandates to banks that don’t apply these rules,” Sarkozy said yesterday in Paris. He didn’t differentiate between French and other institutions. “It is possible to change the rules of financial capitalism.”

Sarkozy said his government won’t hire financial firms unless they apply rules agreed to by French bankers that include a three-year deferral on two-thirds of bonus payments. He aims to bring his proposals to the Group of 20 summit in Pittsburgh next month, which President Barack Obama is scheduled to attend.

.....

In France, institutions including BNP Paribas SA and Societe Generale SA agreed to the deferral and promised to pay out a third of bonuses in shares. They also pledged to stop offering guaranteed payouts to new hires.

Sarkozy said he wants the G-20 to consider capping the total amount paid out by banks in bonuses and to consider setting limits on the size of individual bonuses. The meeting in Pittsburgh follows one held in London in April, when the group promised tighter rules on pay for bankers.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aUiWfT.2bIZY

:donut:
good morning

see the Writing on the Wall. And what's more, act on it.

.....

So let me see if I get this right. 2.126 billion shares traded in four stocks, two of which that accounted for some 900 million of those shares are in companies that by any measure of accounting have absolutely zero common equity value whatsoever (and never will under any rational view of the future), yet NYSE Euronext continues to list them.

These four stocks represented thirty seven percent of all shares traded Tuesday.

Tuesday 3,162 different stocks traded on the NYSE. These four represent 0.13% of the total, yet they comprised 37% of the volume. That's an over-representation of nearly 300 times the average.

Now folks, let's be straight here. Do you believe for one second that this is "great liquidity" added by the "high-frequency trading" computers that are almost certainly behind the vast majority of this volume?

.....

http://seekingalpha.com/article/158286-analyzing-strange-volume-on-the-nyse?source=feed

He seems far too serious and skeptical to ever be taken in by the manic rush of NYSE. Still, it's nice to find he's looking at actual stocks now, no longer needing to announce the coming apocalypse. He certainly makes an excellent argument for giving the whole thing a wide berth.

All these years, I've just watched the stock market as a voyeur. I wonder how much I would have gained or lost if I had been a trader.

Never liked that hot potato game, so I'm glad I'm not playing now!

which you regular viewers may recall I invested in back in May at a price of about $0.85 per share. It promptly (well, gradually) went down to $0.51 per share, then held at $0.58 for some time. Then in August it shot up for no reason I could discover. I did find some research reports that rated it a "buy" or an "outperform." The S&P analysis set the "12 month target price" at $1.50. Well, it exceeded that 2 days ago.

This sudden increase made me nervous and I started joking about bubbles, and a couple of articles have expressed dismay that a company that's losing money and owes the government billions should rise so quickly on trading volumes many times higher than normal.

So okay, I'm chickening out. Sold at $1.78 per share, an increase of approximately 109%. That's right, I doubled my money in three and a half months! (Still not rich. Darn.)

I'll take credit for making a profit, but I cannot claim credit for having foreseen the means of making that profit. My expected scenario included an economic recovery and Fannie Mae returning to some sort of stable business model, possibly in 3 to 5 YEARS, with FNM stock rising to $2 to $5 per share. Never did I predict making a profit on it this year.

With the proceeds, I intend to put about half in a stable, low risk, dividend paying stock, and half in something more speculative. Wouldn't we all get a hoot if that turns out to be Fannie Mae, after it plunges again? The stable, low risk, dividend paying investment is something I neglected back in the 90s, when I made a small fortune. That hurt me during the Bush years when the value of stocks dropped about 25% over 8 years.

A big feature of the 2005 changes to the U.S. bankruptcy law was supposed to be a means test that would get people into chapter 13 instead of chapter 7. Because a chapter 13 requires a 3- or 5-year repayment plan, the law's advocates pitched it as an attempt to force "can pay" debtors to repay a portion of their debts. Initially, chapter 13 rates did go up, but that was a statistical artifact of the huge surge in filings just before the 2005 law. As I have noted previously, the chapter 13 rate has been declining ever since.

I am now officially going to call it ....

Anyway you measure it, chapter 13s have returned to their historical level. In fact, one could even interpret the data to show that chapter 13s are slightly below their historical norms. As a percentage of all filings, the chapter 13 rate for July 2009 was 28.1%, and the chapter 13 rate for the first seven months of 2009 was even less--27.6%. In 2004, chapter 13s were 28.1% (the red line in the graph) and from 1999 - 004 they were 29.0%. The 2005 bankruptcy law accomplished nothing about chapter choice.

http://www.creditslips.org/creditslips/2009/08/another-sign-of-the-futility-of-the-2005-bankruptcy-law.html

The bankruptcy rules make it very hard to successfully complete a Chapter 13. The bankruptcy trustee keeps people under his thumb for 5 years, demanding as much of them as possible, increasing those demands if the people make any headway. Any financial successes they have during the life of the Chapter 13 gets taken from them--raises, lottery winnings, whatever--to enrich the creditors. For the trustee, squeezing them so hard they fail and have to go into Chapter 7 liquidation makes little difference. It may even make the trustee's job easier. And Heaven knows they are terribly, terribly overworked.

One big difference from the 2005 bankruptcy changes, written by credit card company lobbyists (they BOAST about it), was to make it easier for credit card companies to get their supposedly unsecured loans partly paid back from the proceeds of forcing debtors to sell real property. It turned unsecured loans into secured loans.

...

After the SEC attempted a truly staggering feat of legal contrivance by blaming the Merrill bonus fiasco on "understood" arrangements and placing all the blame on counsel, where the trail would end because Bank of America would never waive attorney-client privileges, Rakoff shot back and told the SEC, in no uncertain terms, to not take him or the legal system for Wall Street's marionettes, a role the SEC is more than happy to play day in and day out.

In this sense, Rakoff's response to the SEC is a masterpiece, which, assuming the Judge is not voluntarily or otherwise silenced, could force Rakoff to rake the SEC over the coals of public humiliation and finally acknowledging its crony lap dog status for a group of wealthy Wall Street insiders who consistently have special status with Mary Schapiro and her henchmen.

Quoting from the order released earlier:

"In its August 24th submission, the SEC repeatedly reconfirms its central assertion that "Bank of America's statement was materially false and misleading because it indicated to shareholders that Merrill would only make 'required' payments to its employees, such as salary and benefits, but would not pay discretionary year-end bonuses, n fact, Bank of Americas expressly had agreed to allow Merrill to pay up to $5.8 billion in discretionary year-end bonuses." Yet the same submission asserts that the SEC, despite its 2006 policy quoted above, decided not to bring charges against culpable individual offenders because all the company's witnesses "stated that they had relied entirely on counsel to decide what was or was not disclosed in the proxy statement." Further, the SEC asserts that it was unable to test this assertion because "Bank of America has not waived the attorney-client privilege (and) (a)s a result, the investigative record does not include any specific rationale as to why the disclosure schedule (revealing the bonuses) or it contents were not disclosed in the proxy statement."

At this point any lawyer readers can proceed to go ahead and vomit, because, indeed, this is the "defense" used by the SEC. Rakoff has a comparable reaction:

"This is puzzling. If the responsible officers of Bank of America, in sworn testimony to the SEC, all stated that "they relied entirely on counsel," this would seem to be either a flat waiver of privilege or, if privilege is maintained, then entitled to no weight whatever, since the statement cannot be tested. In asserting that no waiver occurred, the SEC cites just one case, John Does Co. v. United States<,> which, on first reading at least seems hardly to support such a broad assertion applicable to the fact here."

.....

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/judge-rakoff-set-expose-every-detail-wall-streets-usage-sec-bidet

---

]
Ooooh... this is good. If anyone ever wanted to combine a popcorn munching moment with a good ol' fashioned torches-and-pitchforks one - this is it. I just hope that Judge Rakoff stands ground on this one.

Sorry to be the party poopr, but I no longer have faith in the ability of the system to work. One individual might make a temporary stand, but in the end it's all the same.





Tansy Gold, who didn't get enough sleep last night.

over the Madoff scheme even now. The SEC got that whole mess dropped into their laps with a pretty ribbon on it and still didn't do anything about it. That goes beyond incompetence and into collusion.

That most of them are in their jobs and the rest have parachuted out into cushy retirement speaks louder than any promise to get tough.

Bidet is about right.

:donut: :donut: :donut:

I soon will be out the door and off to school. Oddly - we are going to discuss Elizabeth Warren in passing today while the lesson is about credit card debt. We will also cover the 2005 bankruptcy legislation. That never fails to get a teenager's attention.

Have fun watching the Casino.

:hi:

Vaya con Dios, Ozy!

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 78.491 Change +0.181 (+0.23%)

US Dollar, Japanese Yen Showing Signs of a Turn as Surge in Consumer Confidence Fails to Impress

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_fundamentals/US_Dollar__Japanese_Yen_Showing_1251236688233.html

To say it was an interesting day in the currency markets would be an understatement. The US dollar and the Japanese yen ended as the strongest of the majors, but they were well on their way to be the weakest during the European and early US trading session. Indeed, ahead of the release of US consumer confidence, carry trades were making headway and US stock market futures were rising in anticipation of strong results. In the end, the markets were correct in anticipating better results, but wrong on the subsequent fallout. In fact, shortly after the Conference Board announced that their measure of US consumer confidence jumped to a three month high of 54.1 from a revised 47.4, US stocks started to pullback from intraday highs, and the US dollar and Japanese yen rallied. These moves may suggest that optimism has hit an extreme, and with the DXY index holding above a trendline connecting the July 2008 and August 2009 lows, and many of the JPY crosses showing signs of reversal, we may be finally nearing the return of risk aversion. That said, I was beating this drum last week and got burned as a result, so I’ll be awaiting confirmation signals (such as trendline and neckline breaks in pairs like GBPUSD, GBPJPY, and EURJPY) before taking decisive action.

Taking a closer look to Tuesday’s data, a breakdown of the consumer confidence report shows that the increase was due primarily to surge in consumer expectations, as this component rose to 73.5, the highest since December 2007, from 63.4. The index gauging sentiment on the present situation, however, was not as optimistic, as this component edged up to 24.9 from 23.3, leaving it near the same levels we've seen all year. What does this tell us? It suggests that consumers have been buying in to the cheerleading perpetuated by government and central bank officials, but they haven't seen any sort of economic improvement in their own lives.

On Wednesday, US durable goods orders is projected to show a 3.0 percent increase in July following a 2.5 percent drop in June, but excluding transportation the index is forecasted to only rise by 0.8 percent. While the headline result will have the most impact on forex trading, the markets should keep an eye on non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, as this number serves as a leading indicator for business investment. This component has improved over the past two months, and a continuation of this dynamic would be supportive of outlooks for a slow and steady recovery in the US economy.

...more...

EUR/USD: Trading the U.S. Durable Goods Orders Report

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/EUR_USD__Trading_the_U_S__Durable_1251201215737.html

Orders for U.S. durable goods are expected to improve in July, with economists forecasting demands to increase 3.0% from the previous month, and the rise in private-sector spending is likely to reinforce prospects for a sustainable recovery as policymakers anticipate economic activity to improve throughout the second-half of the year.


Trading the News: US Durable Goods Orders

What’s Expected

Time of release: 08/26/2009 12:30 GMT, 08:30 EST

Primary Pair Impact : EURUSD

Expected: 3.0%
Previous: -2.5%



Effects of US Durable Goods Orders on EURUSD for the past 2 months



June 2009 US Durable Goods Orders



Demands for U.S. durable goods plunged 2.5% in June, driven by a 39% drop in commercial aircrafts however, orders excluding transports unexpectedly rose 1.1% from the previous month, and the data encourages an improved outlook for future growth as policymakers take unprecedented steps to stimulate the ailing economy. A deeper look at the report showed stockpiles fell for the sixth consecutive month in June, while unfilled orders fell 0.9% from the previous month, and firms may increase production and investments throughout the second half of the year as demands improve. However, the downturn in the labor market paired with the rise in the personal savings rate foreshadows a weakening outlook for household spending, and the Fed is likely hold the benchmark interest rate at the record-low going into the following year to promote a sustainable recovery.

...more...

http://stopmebeforeivoteagain.org/
Managerial Philistinism
By Al Schumann on Tuesday August 25 07:46 PM

Barney Frank gets nasty in response to wild hyperbole from a loon at a canned town hall, in which "debate" is a euphemism for a marketing push. The effect is surreal. Frank is tasked with the sales pitch of a product that does not yet exist, even in its eventual, inevitable bait and switch form. The reluctant consumer puts the idiot in useful idiot, for the benefit of Frank, who couldn't ask for a better opposition. Liberals offer middle management applause to the equivalent of an angry marketing veep losing his shit over a bat shit crazy mail room clerk who is delivering the package he needs for a promotional effort.

The real world context and content of the farce is completely irrelevant to the applauders. A merit class senior manager, oh blessed relief, is showing signs of shaking off the nembutal haze of a decade's long powerpoint presentation. He could be attempting to fuck the xerox machine, for all they care, as long as he's doing it loudly, vigorously and in a way that offends people they just don't like; it's a mirrored version of the corporate millenarians' corporate epater les bourgeois.

He's right about the futility of arguing with some people, though. A certain subset of humanity won't listen to reason, they stick to what they believe, no matter what. I heard of a case where after several years of basking in the attention of UFO believers, a hoaxster confessed to faking his photos and even produced the models he used in the process. The true believers simply nodded to each other and whispered, "They got to him."

For those of you who are UFO believers, I don't remember the exact case, so it could have been about Bigfoot. (This is part of the fun. The fanatic UFO believers think the Bigfoot believers are crazy and vice versa. Except, of course, for the intersecting subset who believe Bigfoot is a space alien.)

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/aug/26/katrina-racism-us-media

Four years on, Katrina remains cursed by rumour, cliche, lies and racism

Ordinary people mostly behaved well. Those in power panicked, spread fear and fiction, and showed eagerness to kill


Katrina was a fairly terrible natural disaster. But it turned into a horrific social catastrophe because of the response of the people in power, spurred on by their willingness to believe a hysterical, rumour-mongering media. (Journalists on the ground were often fiercely empathic and right on the mark, but those at a remove were all too willing to believe the usual tsunami of cliches about disaster and human nature.)

The story that few can wrap their minds around is that ordinary people mostly behaved well – there were six bodies in the Superdome, including four natural deaths and a suicide, not the hundreds that the federal government expected when it sent massive refrigerator trucks to collect the corpses. On the other hand, people in power behaved appallingly, panicking, spreading rumours, and themselves showing an eagerness to kill and a pathological lack of empathy.

Amusingly, the New Orleans Police Department stripped a Cadillac dealership of its cars, some of which were found as far away as Texas. Less amusingly, they shot a couple of unarmed – and, of course, black – family groups on the Danziger Bridge shortly after the storm in the only such incident to receive much press coverage. A middle-aged mother had her forearm blown off; a mentally disabled 40-year-old on his way to his brother's dental office was shot five times in the back and died, and a teenager was also killed.

Truth, the first casualty of war, is pretty imperilled in disasters, too. One group of suburban white men who believed the rumours or just anticipated that in the absence of authority we all become monsters became monsters themselves, even as they fantasised they were preserving order. These men in Algiers Point across the river from the city of New Orleans gathered an arsenal and launched their own little murder spree, killing several black men and injuring and threatening others.

embodied it."

I believe there was a film about a city which had been turned into a vast prison, in which the kidnapped President was held hostage by the leaders of the prison inmates, and was to be rescued by some Dirty Dancing guy with a black patch over one eye.

Well, it seems the perfect metaphor for the way in which President Obama is being held hostage by the pathocracy of the quintessentially evil, far-right billionnaires, the ultimate slaves of sin, who have done so much, not only to destroy the US, but the whole world. Let's hope President Obama is able to become his own rescuer, as well as the world's. Maybe, he should take some notes from Burt Reynolds, too. I suppose shmoozing with their political puppets, to win their approval for his bills, is Obama's Dirty Dancing.

ranks right after trawling the Baltic for crab. Travolta danced right into the Scientologists.

http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/08/scientists-confirm-effectiveness-of-big.html

As the study notes, this tendency of many people to make up false stories to explain why we went to war and then to hold on to such false beliefs in the face of contrary evidence is "a serious challenge to democratic theory and practice". Until people learn to think more clearly and rationally, they are easily manipulated.

All a government has to do is tell a big enough lie, and many people will swallow it hook, line and sinker. Or the government can just do something big - like starting a war for no good reason (or giving trillions in bailouts to the wealthiest corporations instead of the "little people" who most need it?) - and many people will struggle mightily to themselves concoct false justifications for doing so.

http://www.alternet.org/story/142171/

There Are More Slaves Today Than at Any Time in Human History
The world suffers global recession, enormous inequity, hunger, deforestation, pollution, climate change, nuclear weapons, terrorism, etc. To those who say we’re not really making progress, many might point to the fact that at least we’ve eliminated slavery.

But sadly that is not the truth.

One hundred forty-three years after passage of the 13th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution and 60 years after Article 4 of the U.N.'s Universal Declaration of Human Rights banned slavery and the slave trade worldwide, there are more slaves than at any time in human history -- 27 million.

Today’s slavery focuses on big profits and cheap lives. It is not about owning people like before, but about using them as completely disposable tools for making money.

.....
But Skinner is most haunted by his experience in a brothel in Bucharest, Romania, where he was offered a young woman with Down syndrome in exchange for a used car.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/aug/26/american-obama-republicans-hadley-freeman
If Obama can stand up to Scotland, why can't he stand up to the Republicans?

Well, my fellow American expats, we had a good run. Almost a whole nine months of the rest of the world thinking we were the cool kid in the cafeteria, as opposed to the inbred, pock-cheeked bully who was likely to shoot them with an air rifle behind the gym if they didn't hand over their potato chips. We were Corey Haim in the 1986 film Lucas, the former high school pariah who is suddenly lifted on to the shoulders of the world and carried through the campus.

Admittedly, maybe some hopes about The New America, AM (Anno Messiah), were a little high. But still, one might have hoped for coverage of post-Bush America a little less shaming than YouTube clips of town hall meetings filled with people whose parents probably had the same surname before they got married, insisting that Obama has "Nazi policies", the Nazis being well-known for their interest in expanded healthcare.

Worse, in the eyes of the British media, were reports of the sainted NHS's name being taken in vain by US politicians and so-called newscasters at the doltish end of the social spectrum. Most awkward of all, though, for the expats, were accounts of what American healthcare is actually like, with tales of people forgoing food in order to afford their insulin. Hard to maintain that air of buzzy Apple iMac modernity when everyone knows many in your country rely on a healthcare system reminiscent of a third world dystopia.

I have long cherished a theory that the real point of a country's leader is to reflect one of its own national cliches and consolidate this image abroad. Thus, France is currently ruled by a Napoleon with a supermodel wife who sings about heroin. Italy is headed by an extra from The Godfather (the Porn Version) and North Korea is governed by the puppet from Team America. This is why Gordon Brown – who may as well be tattooed with tartan – has never really made an international impression as the UK prime minister. Equally, it explains why David Cameron will easily take his place, as he not only looks like a stuffy landowner from an Austen adaptation, but he literally is a character in last year's most manically namedropping autobiography, Ferdinand Mount's Cold Cream.

8/24/09 Robert Kiyosaki: "Is the crisis over?"

"Is the crisis over?" is a question I am often asked. "Is the economy coming back?"
My reply is, "I don't think so. I would prepare for the worst."

Like most people, I wish for a better future for all of us. Life is better when people are working, happy, and spending money.

The stock market has been going up since March 9, 2009. Talk of "green shoots" fill the air. Yet, in spite of the more positive news, I continue to recommend that people prepare for the worst. The following are some of my reasons:

1. I believe the stock market is being manipulated. I suspect the government, banks, and Wall Street are doing everything they can to keep the market from crashing. Our leaders know that nothing makes the world feel better than a raging bull market.

Do I have any proof that the market is being manipulated? No. I just smell a rat, or a pack of rats. I believe greed, self-interest, arrogance, and fear control the financial markets. I suspect those in charge will do anything to keep us all from panicking... and I don't blame them. A global panic would be ugly and dangerous.

2. In my view, this global crisis has been caused by the Federal Reserve Bank, the U.S. Treasury, Wall Street, and the central banks of the world. They caused the problem, profited excessively in doing so, and now profit by being asked to fix the problem.

Every time I hear a politician mention the word stimulus, my mind flashes back to high school biology class, when I touched battery wires to a dead frog to make it twitch. Today, you and I are the dead frogs. Pretty soon the dead frog will be fried frog.

In the 1980s, our government's hot money stimulus was measured only in the millions of dollars. By the 1990s, the government had to ramp the stimulus voltage into the billions in order to get the frog to twitch. Today the frog has jumper cables with trillions in high-voltage hot money pouring through the lines.

While most us feel better when we have more high-voltage money in our hands, none of us feel good about higher taxes, increasing national debt, and rising inflation for the long term. Another old saying goes, "Sometimes the cure is worse than the disease." I say the government stimulus cure is killing us frogs.

3. Old frogs don't hop. Another reason I am cautious about the future is that the Western world has a growing number of old frogs. Between 1970 and 2000, the economy responded to bailouts and stimulus packages because the baby boomers of the world were entering their greatest earning years -- their purchasing power increased, and demand for homes, cars, refrigerators, computers, and TVs boosted the economy.

The stimulus plans seemed to work. But when a person turns 60, their spending habits change dramatically. They stop consuming and start conserving like a bear preparing for winter. The economy of the Western world is heading into winter. Hot wires and hot money will not get old frogs to hop. Old frogs will simply join the bears and stick that money in the bank as they prepare for the long, hard winter known as old age. The businesses that will do well in a winter economy are drug companies, hospitals, wheelchair manufacturers, and mortuaries.

4. The dying frog economy will lead us to the biggest Ponzi schemes of all: Social Security and Medicare. If we think this subprime financial crisis is big, it's my opinion that this crisis will be dwarfed by the crisis brewing in Social Security and Medicare...Medicare being the biggest crisis of all. As old frogs head for the big lily pad in the sky, they will demand young frogs spend even more in tax dollars just to keep old frogs from croaking.

5. The 401(k)Ponzi scheme. A Ponzi scheme, like the scheme Madoff ran, depends upon young money to pay off old money. In other words, a Ponzi scheme needs tadpoles to finance old frogs. The same is true for the 401(k) and other retirement plans to work. If young money does not come into the stock market, the old money cannot retire. One reason so many people my age are worried, not only about Social Security and Medicare, is because they're concerned about getting their money out of the stock market before the other old frogs decide to drain the swamp.

The facts are that the 401(k) plan has a trigger that requires old frogs to begin withdrawing their money at a certain age. In other words, as baby boomers grow older, more and more will be required, by law, to begin withdrawing their money from the market. You do not have to be a rocket scientist to know that it is hard for a market to keep going up when more and more people are getting out.

The reason the 401(k) has this law related to mandatory withdrawals is because the Federal government wants to collect the taxes that they deferred when the worker's money went into the plan. In other words, the taxman wants their pound of flesh. Since they allowed the worker to invest without paying taxes, the government wants their tax dollars when the employee retires. That is why the laws require older workers to sell their shares ¬-- and pay their pound of flesh.

Demographics show that we are entering a battle between young and old. I call it the "Age War." The young want to hang onto their money to grow their families, businesses, and wealth. The old want the tax and investment dollars of the young to sustain their old age.

This war is not coming...it is upon us now. This is one of many reasons why I remain cautious and say, "The worst is yet to come."

http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/richricher/184720

I read one of his lesser known books called Prophesy I think. Now he may not be known for this but even a broken clock is right twice a day. I gleaned some good nuggets from this book and it prompted me to change my tack years ago. Haven't read it since but I bet it would sound prophetic now. I enjoy reading him because he gets me thinking outside the box. Love his take on this and agree with a lot of what he is saying about this esp the part on the 401K.

I don't recall reading him, but wiki says he has written a bunch of 'Rich Dad'...books

Rich Dad's Prophecy (2002) predicts that the market will crash around 2016 when the oldest Baby Boomers start cashing out their 401(k) plans. Individuals whose savings are locked into 401(k) plans will suffer because these retirement plans are not flexible and do not do well in a bear market.<5> Robert Kiyosaki believes this may be his most important book yet.

more info...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Kiyosaki

Really got me thinking about the future of the 401's as investment vehicle. That was when I switched to ROTHS-to ease the tax burden and enhance social security income earnings.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article6806419.ece?print=yes&randnum=1251277896493
Professor Paul Krugman at war with Niall Ferguson over inflation
America’s top liberal pundit is at loggerheads with a British don over how to save the world economy

One of them is a “poseur”. The other is “patronising”. One suffers from “verbal diarrhoea”. The other is a “whiner”.

A bust-up on the set of High School Musical 4 perhaps? A scrap behind the catwalk at a Milan fashion show? No. Those accusations were slung round in an increasingly bitter public row between two of the world’s most distinguished commentators on global finance and economics, professors Paul Krugman and Niall Ferguson, of Princeton and Harvard, respectively.

It started as an argument about bond prices. But last week it blew up into a row about racism, printing money, spending our way out of recession, and the fate of the global economy.

Academic spats can, of course, be famously catty. Ludwig Wittgenstein once tossed a poker at his fellow philosopher Karl Popper at a meeting of the Cambridge Moral Science Club as they argued about whether issues in philosophy were real or just linguistic puzzles. At least Krugman and Ferguson haven’t come to blows yet, although at their next meeting it might be better to hide the blunt instruments. Still, it is a long time since the academic world witnessed a dispute as gladiatorial as this one.

That was until I got to part 3 of "The Ascent of Money", and he started heaping all kinds of praise on Milton Friedman, Pinochet, Thatcher, et al. The Czechago Boys were our saviors. The welfare state sucks.

Get a clue, Niall.

caused the biggest trouble.

I can't read my bank statements, but that is clearly the most facile, even infantile evasion - you couldn't call it an argument - an infant could make. If you linger on the thought too long, it takes your breath away. How did this guy ever graduate from infant's school? It's like saying: "If a sentence of life-imprisonment or the imposition of any kind of substantial penal sanction on serial-killers is so effective, how come a strongly-worded letter to serial-killers has proved so ineffective?"

In a real enough way, the comparison is not so far-fetched: many innocent people will have suffered protracted agony and premature deaths, as a result of just the repeal of the Glass-Steagall law; and, recently, this conversion of unsecured loans through credit cards, into secured loans, usurious though their rates have been, i.e. by the seizure of homes.

(Debt up .472 billion, while the FICA side goes down .669 billion dollars. Added breakout calculations from times GWB left, fiscal year ended and time heavy borrowing started just prior to the fiscal year ending.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,385,932,492,348.44 + 4,333,128,433,517.42
UP 472,040,908.69 + DOWN 669,307,581.82

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 307-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.76, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,262,901 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 08/24/2009 13:24 -> 307,261,605
Currently, each of these Americans owe $38,140.18.
A family of three owes $114,420.53. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 5,115,105,806.19.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,751,077,591.20.
The average for the last 31 days would be 3,630,075,088.26.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 149 reports in 216 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.28B$ per report, 5.06B$/day so far.
There were 224 reports in 328 days of FY2009 averaging 7.56B$ per report, 5.17B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,245 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.4 and 18.2T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
08/24/2009 11,719,060,925,865.86 BHO (UP 1,092,183,876,952.78 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,694,336,028,953.40 so far this fiscal year, broken down below:
Borrowed in FY2009: 0,602,152,152,000.59 in part from time during Bush reign.
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,092,183,876,952.78 in part since Obama takes over.


LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
08/04/2009 -000,056,382,262.77 ----
08/05/2009 +000,017,974,078.47 ------------*******
08/06/2009 -000,578,106,269.92 ---
08/07/2009 +000,290,467,707.81 ------------********
08/10/2009 +000,222,135,743.03 ------------******** Mon
08/11/2009 +000,246,752,500.45 ------------********
08/12/2009 +000,081,638,592.29 ------------*******
08/13/2009 +004,096,319,823.99 ------------*********
08/14/2009 +000,017,806,259.60 ------------*******
08/17/2009 +012,224,191,599.44 ------------********** Mon
08/18/2009 +036,282,270,009.21 ------------**********
08/19/2009 +000,703,521,737.77 ------------********
08/20/2009 +001,088,553,104.23 ------------*********
08/21/2009 +000,333,547,281.04 ------------********
08/24/2009 +000,472,040,908.69 ------------******** Mon

55,442,730,813.33 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4031190&mesg_id=4031277

(Debt up .287B$, it's the FICA side that rose most.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,386,220,240,936.11 + 4,344,180,381,514.20
UP 287,748,587.67 + UP 11,051,947,996.78

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 307-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.76, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,271,541 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 08/24/2009 13:24 -> 307,261,605
Currently, each of these Americans owe $38,176.01.
A family of three owes $114,528.02. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 5,385,740,187.85.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,129,067,477.35.
The average for the last 32 days would be 3,871,000,760.02.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 150 reports in 217 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.31B$ per report, 5.09B$/day so far.
There were 225 reports in 329 days of FY2009 averaging 7.58B$ per report, 5.18B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,244 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.4 and 18.2T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
08/25/2009 11,730,400,622,450.31 BHO (UP 1,103,523,573,537.23 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,705,675,725,537.90 so far this fiscal year, broken down below:
Borrowed in FY2009: 0,602,152,152,000.59 in part from time during Bush reign.
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,103,523,573,537.23 in part since Obama takes over.


LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
08/05/2009 +000,017,974,078.47 ------------*******
08/06/2009 -000,578,106,269.92 ---
08/07/2009 +000,290,467,707.81 ------------********
08/10/2009 +000,222,135,743.03 ------------******** Mon
08/11/2009 +000,246,752,500.45 ------------********
08/12/2009 +000,081,638,592.29 ------------*******
08/13/2009 +004,096,319,823.99 ------------*********
08/14/2009 +000,017,806,259.60 ------------*******
08/17/2009 +012,224,191,599.44 ------------********** Mon
08/18/2009 +036,282,270,009.21 ------------**********
08/19/2009 +000,703,521,737.77 ------------********
08/20/2009 +001,088,553,104.23 ------------*********
08/21/2009 +000,333,547,281.04 ------------********
08/24/2009 +000,472,040,908.69 ------------******** Mon
08/25/2009 +000,287,748,587.67 ------------********

55,786,861,663.77 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4033020&mesg_id=4033338

Someone pointed out previously the only area carrying the economy is Defense. And you all wonder why they just don't cancel the wars.

http://market-ticker.org/
Durable Gains CFC And Defense Related
Defense orders are up 14.8%, again putting a fork in the Democrat/Liberal dreams of Obama pulling back on the military. Nope. This is a consistent trend since the beginning of his administration - he's a big-military guy folks, despite what you may have wished. Welcome to reality; defense was the only year/over/year positive change.

Machinery shipments and new orders were both down, which is one of my "key item" areas for manufacturing on a forward basis, since machinery is what makes "stuff". The slide there continues.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/other-unmentioned-consumer-index

The Other, Unmentioned Consumer Index
With all eyes glued to the Michigan numbers yesterday which were supposed to start another recursive market spike, most pundits failed to notice the much less cheerful ABC consumer comfort index which was virtually unchanged, and in fact the buying climate assessment indicated a deterioration.

Here are the results, via Bloomberg:

U.S. overall consumer confidence rose last week, according to an ABC News poll released Tuesday. The consumer comfort index rose one point to -45 in the week ended Aug. 23, from -46 a week earlier.

According to the survey, 8% of respondents expressed confidence in the economy, up from 7% the week before. Also, 49% of those polled said their own finances were in good standing, up from 48% in the prior week. In assessing the buying climate, 25% of respondents said it was good, down from 26% a week earlier.

The consumer comfort index was based on a random survey of 1,000 respondents nationwide ended Aug. 23. The index measures typical Americans' confidence in three areas: the national economy, their own finances, and their willingness to spend money, according to the report.

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/
A Plunge in Foreign Capital Inflows Preceded the Break in US Financial Markets

The peak of foreign capital inflows into the US was clearly seen in the second quarter of 2007, just before the crisis in the US that has rocked its banking system and driven it deeply into recession.

Are the two events connected? Had the US become a Ponzi scheme that began to collapse when new investment began to wane, and the growth of returns could not be maintained?

Watch the dollar and the Treasury and Agency Debt auctions.

The sad truth is that US collateralized debt packages and their derivatives have become toxic in the minds of the rest of the world, and there is little being done to change that, except an orderly winding down of the bubble, with the remaining assets being divided largely by insiders.

What happened to that make or break FDIC report due out yesterday?
I can't find anything about it.

http://dissidentvoice.org/2009/08/the-widening-gap-in-americas-two-tiered-society/
The Widening Gap In America’s Two-Tiered Society

As Barak Obama, perhaps hypocritically, chastened, “Under Republican and Democratic administrations, we failed to guard against practices that all too often rewarded financial manipulation instead of productive and sound business practices. We let the special interests put their thumbs on the economic scales.”

Yet, he, himself, showed no hesitation during his election campaign over collecting $40,925 from the bailout fund recipient and nearly bankrupt investment house Bear Stearns, $161,850 from the bailout fund recipient and mortgage underwriter Morgan Stanley, as well as benefits from countless other institutions that have received government favors at taxpayers’ expense. As such, it’s hard in actuality to deliver more than just a mild verbal rebuke about these organizations’ modus operandi if one picks up a personal windfall from not meddling. Thus, the financial corruption continues at all levels of government.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yKtWMqW4ICM

JOHNNY GUITAR WATSON
ain’t that a bitch
Eew, Lord have mercy, I can't get ahead, no way I try
Everything is out of pocket, somebody do somethin'
The brother's situation is abstract, listen, mm

Listen
I'm workin' 40 hours, six long days
And I'm highly embarrassed ev'rytime I get my pay
And they're workin' everybody
Lord, they're workin' poor folks to death
And when you pay your rent and your car
Note, you ain't got a damn thing left

Ain't that a bitch - yes it is
Somebody doin' somethin' slick -
It's got me wonderin', which is which
Might as well go uptown and dig a ditch
Ain't that a bitch - yes it is - now ain't that a bitch

But let me tell you about my qualifications
I program computers
I know accounting and psychology
I took a coarse in business
And I can speak a little Japanese -
Got to work two years to get one week off with pay
And when I'm on my job, I better watch every word I say

Ain't that a bitch - ha ha, boy
Somebody doin' somethin' slick - downtown
It's got me wonderin', which is which
Might as well go uptown and dig a ditch
Ain't that a bitch - it's way too cold - ain't that a bitch
Make me wanna holler

Ah Lord, Lord, Lord, have mercy to see
Won't somebody please help me to see now, Lord
I wanna play the guitar, come here guitar
Aw, somebody doin' somethin' slick

Now listen at this
Stopped at the supermarket to get myself somethin' to eat
And when I looked at the prices, it knocked me off of my feet
I was in the baloney section, and I had to take myself a close look
Now Abdul Jabar couldn't have made these prices with a sky hook

Ain't that a bitch - he he, yes it is
Somebody doin' somethin' slick -
It's got me wonderin', which is which
Might as well go uptown and dig a ditch
Ain't that a bitch - hm - so ain't that a bitch

Oh, ain't that a -------- bitch
Sure is somethin' slick goin' on, sure is somethin' slick
Sure is somethin' slick goin' on, sure is somethin' slick
Ain't that a -------- bitch
Sure is somethin' slick goin' on, sure is somethin' slick
Sure is somethin' slick goin' on, somebody sure is slick

Ain't that a -------- bitch
Sure is somethin' slick goin' on, sure is somethin' slick
Sure is somethin' slick goin' on, sure is somethin' slick
Sure is somethin' slick goin' on, sure is somethin' slick
Ain't that a -------- bitch
Sure is somethin' slick goin' on, somebody sure is slick ....

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/laplaza/2009/08/plastic-bags-outlawed-in-mexico-city.html

Plastic bags outlawed in Mexico City
In the latest effort to improve Mexico City's environment, it became illegal last week for supermarkets and other businesses to hand out nonbiodegradable plastic bags to customers.

CNN reports that "amended ordinances on solid waste now outlaw businesses from giving out thin plastic bags that are not biodegradable."

Sure enough, on my weekly trip to the Soriana supermarket in my neighborhood, I had my groceries packed into plastic bags emblazoned with a logo promising they were biodegradable.

All stores, production facilities and service providers within Mexico City, also called the Federal District, will be affected by the new law, which makes Mexico City the second big city in the Western Hemisphere to enact such a ban, along with San Francisco.

"In some sectors"

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=103x474789#474790

Pass the Kool-aid, please!

Obviously from IDIOT WIND

Idiot wind, blowing every time you move your mouth,
Blowing down the backroads headin' south.
Idiot wind, blowing every time you move your teeth,
You're an idiot, babe.
It's a wonder that you still know how to breathe.

He also has been giving props to Ben. He & Ravi Batra, my two econ gurus, are at odds. Don't know who to believe.

Basically three of the head cheerleaders slathering all over themselves and acting like they know something.

I noticed some of the regulars here chimed in, and that's always a good thing, but anything posted by those idiots is better left unread. They Copy and Paste Mainstream Propaganda and then act all pleased with themselves as they analyze bullshit and think themselves informed.

But if you notice, NOT ONE of those cowards has the guts to EVER post in this thread. They also never post any responses to any contributors here, because they haven't got one scintilla of substance other than what they've been told to think.

It's frightening how deluded these people are, and how proud of their ignorance they seem to be.

You can't have a conversation with someone who can't think for themselves.

It's best avoided.

The only reason I even saw that thread is because I've got the OP on Ignore, and I wasn't logged in.

Thanks for the reminder to always be logged in. :)

But, I decided otherwise.

Wouldn't it be wonderful to just bring Alberto Gonzales back to the Justice Dept? Or put Condi Rice back in the NSC? They had as much foresight as Bernanke.

Sure, he studied the great depression. He just didn't comprehend what he studied.

dresses down Kevin Cline's Character:

Otto: Apes don't read Philosophy.....

Wanda: Yes, They Do Otto.....They Just Don't Understand it.

:rofl:

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/sickaroundtheworld/interviews/couchepin.html

Before LAMal, they could turn people down?

They could, but they didn't do it practically, because the 5 percent who were not insured were the people absolutely poor, that we have to pay the health insurance premium for them --

The government pays it?

Yes, through subsidies. Or the very rich, who say, "We don't care to have an insurance; we can afford to pay the real costs of our treatments." But we decided , and I supported that as a member of the parliament. Today I am not sure that it was a very , because then, there was a huge increase in the expenses of the health insurance.

.....
... One of the problems we have in America is that many people -- it's a huge number of people -- go bankrupt because of medical bills; some studies say 700,000 people a year. How many people in Switzerland go bankrupt because of medical bills?

Nobody. Doesn't happen. It would be a huge scandal if it happens.

Even to one?

... You go bankrupt because you're not pay your premium, 2,000 or 3,000 Swiss francs, but it is not because of that but because of your general situation. But that the normal situation become bankrupt of health costs, it would be for us something absolutely unbelievable. ...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/pipeline-executives-confirm-abusive-hft-practices-including-potential-front-running
Pipeline Executives Confirm Abusive HFT Practices, Including Potential "Front Running"
An article in yesterday's Advanced Trading magazine, written by Pipeline executives Fred Federspiel and Alfred Berkeley, which was supposed to extol the virtues of HFT (or of the Pipeline product offering specifically, we were a little confused on that issue), ended up doing anything but, and in fact confirmed many of the concerns voiced with regard to high frequency trading in the blogosphere and in other venues.
......
Other high frequency trading approaches "a class of stat-arb strategies sometimes called information arbitrage" look over longer timeframes in an attempt to detect asymmetries in trading interests, and then profit by trading before institutions have a chance to finish their orders. These intra-day timing tactics have been called "front running" or "penny jumping"; they directly generate market impact losses for institutions.

And there you have it - HFT's direct and mandated involvement in what is explicitly front-running of various trading interests, as a function of information traffic speed and asymmetries. And this is not merely Flash orders - this is the whole market landscape: the underlying premise of today's HFT participants is to promote riskless (or as close to as possible) trading for those who are embedded within the market topology and have been given the green light by exchanges to "front run" or "penny jump" - call it however you want. Maybe it is time the SEC provided its own semantic definition of this phenomenon.

A unique method
:)


Extreme Sheepherding, appx 3 minutes
http://solari.com/blog/?p=3986

I apologize if the stories are too long, But Cliff Young should be admired by all. Not only because he was the underdog but because of his humility, decency, and lack of greed.
He deserves a posthumous Medal of Freedom more than anyone. Maybe even a Nobel.

http://www.my-inspirational-quotes.com/inspirational-stories/cliff-young-a-farmer-who-inspires-a-nation/

Cliff Young, a farmer who inspired a nation
“
Cliff Young runningThe whole nation thought he was a crazy old man to undertake an almost impossible feat. Most feared that he would die trying. But this humble old man proved all the critics wrong.

Cliff Young, at 61 years of age, participated in 1983’s Sydney to Melbourne race. Considered to be the world’s toughest race, with the distance of 875 kilometers and took at least 6 to 7 days to finish, Cliff Young entered the race against world-class athletes. Read how he achieved the unthinkable and inspires the whole nation.

The Beginning

Every year, Australia hosts an 875-kilometer endurance racing from Sydney to Melbourne – considered to be the world’s longest and toughest ultra-marathon. It’s a long, tough race that takes a week and normally participated by world-class athletes who train specially for the event. Backed by big names in sports like Nike, these athletes are mostly less than 30 years old men and women equipped with the most expensive sponsored training outfits and shoes.

In 1983, these top class runners were in for a surprise. On the day of the race, a guy named Cliff Young showed up. At first, no one cared about him since everybody thought he was there to watch the event. After all, he was 61 years old, showed up in overalls and galoshes over his work boots.

As Cliff walked up to the table to take his number, it became obvious to everybody he was going to run. He was going to join a group of 150 world-class athletes and run! During that time, these runners don’t even know another surprising fact – his only trainer was his 81-year-old mother, Neville Wran.

Everybody thought that it was a crazy publicity stunt. But the press was curious, so as he took his number 64 and moved into the pack of runners in their special, expensive racing outfit, the camera focused on him and reporters started to ask:

“Who are you and what are you doing?”

“I’m Cliff Young. I’m from a large ranch where we run sheep outside of Melbourne.”

They said, “You’re really going to run in this race?”

“Yeah,” Cliff nodded.

“Got any backers?”

“No.”

“Then you can’t run.”

“Yeah I can.” Cliff said. “See, I grew up on a farm where we couldn’t afford horses or four wheel drives, and the whole time I was growing up– until about four years ago when we finally made some money and got a four wheeler– whenever the storms would roll in, I’d have to go out and round up the sheep. We had 2,000 head, and we have 2,000 acres. Sometimes I would have to run those sheep for two or three days. It took a long time, but I’d catch them. I believe I can run this race; it’s only two more days. Five days. I’ve run sheep for three.”

When the marathon started, the pros left Cliff behind in his galoshes. The crowds smiled because he didn’t even run correctly. Instead of running, he appeared to run leisurely, shuffling like an amateur.

Now, the 61-year-old potato farmer from Beech Forest with no teeth had started the ultra-tough race with world-class athletes. All over Australia, people who watched the live telecast kept on praying that someone would stop this crazy old man from running because everyone believed he’ll die even before even getting halfway across Sydney.

Turtle vs rabbits
cliff young australia Every professional athletes knew for certain that it took about 7 days to finish this race, and that in order to compete, you would need to run 18 hours and sleep 6 hours. The thing is, old Cliff Young did not know that!

When the morning news of the race was aired, people were in for another big surprise. Cliff was still in the race and had jogged all night down to a city called Mittagong.

Apparently, Cliff did not stop after the first day. Although he was still far behind the world-class athletes, he kept on running. He even had the time to wave to spectators who watched the event by the highways.

When he got to a town called Albury he was asked about his tactics for the rest of the race. He said he would run through to the finish, and he did.

He kept running. Every night he got just a little bit closer to the leading pack. By the last night, he passed all of the world-class athletes. By the last day, he was way in front of them. Not only did he run the Melbourne to Sydney race at age 61, without dying; he won first place, breaking the race record by 9 hours and became a national hero! The nation fell in love with the 61-year-old potato farmer who came out of nowhere to defeat the world’s best long distance runners.

He finished the 875-kilometre race in 5 days, 15 hours and 4 minutes. Not knowing that he was supposed to sleep during the race, he said when running throughout the race, he imagined that he was chasing sheep and trying to outrun a storm.

When Cliff was awarded the first prize of $10,000, he said he did not know there was a prize and insisted that he had not entered for the money. He said, “There’re five other runners still out there doing it tougher than me,” and he gave them $2,000 each. He did not keep a single cent for himself. That act endeared him to all of Australia. Cliff was a humble, average man, who undertook an extraordinary feat and became a national sensation.

The Inspirational Run Continues
In the following year, Cliff Young entered the same race and won the 7 th place. During the race, his hip popped out of the joint socket, his knee played up and he endured shin splints. But those didn’t deter him from finishing the race. When he was announced as the winner for most courageous runner and presented with a Mitsubishi Colt, he said, “I didn’t do it near as tough as old Bob McIlwaine. Here, Bob, you have the car,” and gave the keys to him.

It was said that Cliff Young never kept a single prize. People gave him watches, because he never had one. He would thank them because he did not want to hurt their feelings, but will then give it away to the first child he saw. He did not understand why he would need a watch because, he said, he knew when it was daylight, when it was dark, and when he was hungry.

Cliff came to prominence again in 1997, aged 76, when he attempted to become the oldest man to run around Australia and raise money for homeless children. He managed to completed 6,520km of the 16,000km run before he had to pull out after his only permanent crew member became ill.

His love for running never diminished but in year 2000, after collapsing in his Gellibrand home a week after completing 921 kilometers of a 1600-kilometre race, his lose his strength for running. The mild stroke ended his heroic running days.

After the long illness, Cliff Young, the running legend passed away on 2 nd November 2003. He was 81.

Current Race

The “Young-shuffle” has been adopted by ultra-marathon runners because it is considered more aerodynamic and expends less energy. At least 3 winners of the Sydney to Melbourne race have been known to use the ‘Young-shuffle’ to win the race.

Now, for Sydney to Melbourne race, almost nobody sleeps. To win that race, you have to run like Cliff Young did, you have to run all night as well as all day.

Thanks for sharing. Appreciate the postings you contribute everyday. I do check them out, though don't make many comments on DU, or anywhere. But I enjoy reading the diverse authors and articles.

I read things that need to be shared.
Most people just don't have the spare time I do.

http://www.badassoftheweek.com/paleokostas.html
Vassilis Paleokostas

What do you get when you cross Jesse James, Robin Hood, and Jack Bauer in the body of a giant, bearded, bald Greek man?
Meet Vassilis Paleokostas:

This crazy, utterly fearless dude is public enemy number one in Greece, and probably one of the most badass motherfuckers to come from the country since the days of our friend Leonidas.

Vassilis' story starts back in the early 90s, when he went on an insane crime spree of delicious armed robbery, blackmail, extortion, and kidnapping. Basically, his modus operandi was to kidnap a super-rich bastard, hold him for a ridiculous ransom, and then sell him back to his stupid family in exchange for giant piles of cold, hard cash. Then, he'd take that bling, keep a small percentage of it for himself, and distribute the rest of his newly-acquired wealth to impoverished farmers of the tiny rural province in which he grew up. The dude quickly made a name for himself as the Robin Hood of Greece, and was beloved by fans of badassery, the people of the lower classes, and pretty much anybody else he wasn't in the process of robbing or extorting for money. Shit, even the fucking people he kidnapped came out later and said that he was very polite and respectful to them while they were in captivity, and that it was pretty much the most pleasant kidnapping they'd ever experienced. That should give you some indication of what this dude was all about – steal from the rich, give to the poor, make a profit in the process, and be completely awesome all of the goddamned time. He also made a vow never to harm a member of the public in his criminal escapades. He's been true to his word.

In true badass fashion, Vassilis Paleokostas also has a trusty sidekick – a lunatic Albanian named Alket Rizai. Rizai is like the Friar Tuck in this story, only if instead of being a benevolent, staff-swinging priest, the clergyman was a crazy gunman with a hair-trigger and a penchant for firing automatic weapons at heavily-armed tactical police officers. Rizai is currently up on charges for murder, though I haven't really been able to track down any details about any of that (that's the problem with trying to research current events, I suppose). My assumption is that he was being attacked by some evil corrupt officers sent by the Sherriff of Nottingham and responded by burning a full clip of Uzi ammunition into them, jumping through a plate glass window, rescuing a damsel in distress, and swinging off on a chandelier with a hot babe clinging to his rippling biceps. According to a Greek friend of mine, this guy once blew up a known Mafia hangout by shooting it with a fucking rocket launcher.

Of course, the downside to being a career criminal – even a happy-go-lucky one who commits non-violent crimes in the name of the oppressed populace – is that eventually the long arm of the law is going to bitch-slap you in the fucking face really really hard. In 1995, Vassilis Paleokostas was caught by the fuzz, convicted of kidnapping, robbery, and weapons charges, and hauled off to a federal pound-me-in-the-ass penitentiary known as Korydallos Prison.



Now over the years, Korydallos Prison has gained a reputation as being one of the harshest and most brutal prisons in Greece. This place is like a mix between Andersonville, Oz, and that stupid plastic box they keep Magneto inside in the X-Men movies. The warden is a hardass son-of-a-bitch, the guards don't give a shit, and people that go inside the facility never come out.

Except Vassilis Paleokostas.

In June 2006, Paleokostas' older brother (another pathological criminal who is now serving jail time on 16 counts of armed robbery) commandeered a helicopter, and landed it right in the middle of the fucking exercise yard of the prison in broad daylight. The armed guards at Korydallos, not expecting to be subjected to such an unbelievable display of gigantic steel-plated testicles, assumed that this chopper belonged to the warden or the Chief of Prisons or something, and instead of investigating it they all decided to make sure their shoes were appropriately spit-shined so as not to incur a citation from their wrathful bosses. Vassilis (who had orchestrated the entire operation from the beginning) and his Albanian buddy simply walked up to the helicopter, hopped inside, and lifted off. By the time the guards got their heads out of their asses and started firing their guns at the bird, it was already too late. Paleokostas had escaped.

So the Greek police put out an all-points bulletin, and a nation-wide manhunt began for the Greek Robin Hood. Officers, dogs, and federal agents scoured the countryside for this fugitive day and night, relentlessly following leads and doing everything in their power to bring this wanted criminal to justice.

Paleokostas evaded them for two and a half years. He lived in the mountains outside Athens, evaded all attempts to recapture him, and even orchestrated another high-profile kidnapping in the process – snatching a powerful jackass CEO industrialist, ransoming him for a huge wad of cash, and once again distributing the loot to local farmers and families. There are also rumors that he planned and executed another kidnapping while he was still incarcerated, which is bonus points no matter how you look at it.

In August 2008, Paleokostas was tracked down and re-captured by the Greek police. He was placed in a different maximum security facility, where he was held for another six months, awaiting trial for his brazen escape in 2006. On 21 February 2009, Vassilis Paleokostas was transferred back to his old home – Korydallos Prison. His trial was to begin on the 23rd, and he was to stay in his former holding area while he stood trial for this crime.

But he never made it to trial. The very next day, 22 February, ANOTHER FUCKING HELICOPTER showed up in the skies above Korydallos Prison. It flew over a large tower of the prison, lowered a long rope ladder, and Vassilis Paleokostas and Alket Rizai climbed up into the chopper. As the helicopter flew off into the sunset, the prisoners of Korydallos cheered.


Greek police opened fire on the chopper as it flew off, but a woman returned fire with an AK-47 assault rifle. Now having hot Greek babes with automatic weapons come save your ass from prison isn't the sort of thing that happens to normal people every day, but that's just how things work out for you when you're a badass like Vassilis Paleokostas.

The police eventually tracked down the helicopter, and found that it had ditched on the side of the road outside Athens with a bullet hole in the gas tank. According to the pilot, Paleokostas and his associates left the chopper and drove off on totally sweet motorcycles to an undisclosed location. They also popped some totally bitchin' wheelies while doing so.

Vassilis not only earned his freedom for the second time, and once again showed the world that his ballsack is roughly the size of a small continent, but he also got some sweet delicious revenge on the motherfuckers in charge of the Greek prison system at the same time. For allowing the same guy to escape the same prison in the same manner twice in a row, the Greek government fired the country's Chief of Prisons, the Inspector-General of Prisons, the warden of Korydallos, and three guards at the facility. They all learned what it means to step to somebody as awesome as the Greek Robin Hood.

Vassilis Paleokostas is fully rad because he kicked ass, won the respect of the people, said "fuck you" to the police, and managed to single-handedly place the country's three top-ranking prison officials in the back of the unemployment line.

He is still at large.

or whatever the herding equivalent is.

I don't know whether to thank or curse you for that.

8/12/09 Paul Krugman Gets a New Place to Hang His Hat and Nobel

The Times columnist, Princeton professor, recent Nobel winner, and all-around ceaselessly smart economist Paul Krugman has a nice new co-op. According to a deed filed in city records Wednesday, Mr. Krugman and his wife, economist and yoga teacher Robin Wells, spent $1.7 million on a three-bedroom Riverside Drive apartment earlier this month.

"We really wanted a place that has the ultimate New York luxury, which is a washer and dryer," Mr. Krugman said Wednesday afternoon.

Even though the couple bought their place at a big discount--it was listed early last year for $2,495,000, which became $2,199,000 and then $1,850,000--it's slightly odd that Mr. Krugman, whose cynicism about the American housing market is not a secret, would want to buy something now. "Yes, I do expect New York prices might fall some more," he offered, "but we need a place. And I came into some money." He chuckled awkwardly, because he was referring to his Nobel, which comes with about $1.4 million. "We have financial resources that we didn’t have before."

The couple’s seller happens to be former Times reporter and correspondent Joseph B. Treaster--which is a coincidence. "Never met," Mr. Krugman said, but offered that Frank Rich is in the co-op's sister building. Then he paused, gasping about something that the kooky Niall Ferguson wrote ("President Barack Obama reminds me of Felix the Cat… Felix was not only black. He was also very, very lucky"), then went back to the new apartment. Unlike in his old place in the neighborhood--which is about to be sold, though the couple won't be making any money on it--this has a spare bedroom he can write in: "We're planning on having a desk, and a Murphy bed, to make it a little more spacious for when it’s serving as an office."

On the downside, Ms. Wells said the apartment needs to be seriously refurbished. She's already spent $250 on a Polson light fixture. "We like Danish modern," she explained. "We’re kind of, you know, moderate, kind of a step up from Crate and Barrel. The only thing I’m probably splurging on a little bit is upholstery fabric. I think I'll be getting some actual Swedish fabric. But the sofa I’m covering I found on eBay; it’s one of these beautiful 1960s pieces." That Swedish fabric, she said, is "truly expensive stuff. Oh, yeah. They’re like the Germans. Everything is perfect."

http://www.observer.com/2009/real-estate/paul-krugman-gets-new-place-hang-his-hat-and-nobel

and a washer and dryer.

http://taxprof.typepad.com/taxprof_blog/2009/08/tax-court-rejects.html
Tax Court Rejects Taxpayer's Attempt to Use Geithner's TurboTax Defense

The Tax Court yesterday rejected a taxpayer's attempt to use the TurboTax defense successfully employed by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner. Hopson v. Commissioner, T.C. Summ. Op. 2009-130 (Aug. 25, 2009) (citations omitted):

Petitioners have not met their burden of persuasion with respect to reasonable cause and good faith. Mr. Hopson admitted that he received both Forms 1099-R for the distributions and that he knew they constituted income. After using tax return preparation software for nearly 20 years, he simply filed the return that was generated by the software without reviewing it. The omission of the distributions resulted in the failure to report over 40 percent of petitioners’ total income for the year. Granted this was a one-time event, but petitioners nevertheless had a duty to review their return to ensure that all income items were included. Petitioners were not permitted to bury their heads in the sand and ignore their obligation to ensure that their tax return accurately reflected their income for 2006. In the end, reliance on tax return preparation software does not excuse petitioners’ failure to review their 2006 tax return.

:)

Sometimes one just has to step away for a few minutes to regain one's sanity.

I recommend a healthy dose of Paul's Punch from The Mercury here in Seattle.

Does the trick every time.

You have to be a member though.

Well, what can you say? Once again they release fake numbers (Seasonally adjusted, lightly simmered, slightly sauteed) and the Media Bellows through their Megaphones, manipulating the flock to ONLY pay attention to these perfectly spun reports, and continue to flagellate in the fantasy of Recovery.

When you take a look at The Market Reaction to all of the "Good News" this morning, it seems even the Criminals themselves get embarrassed by their own Bullshit occasionally, and can't run the Market to the moon on what is probably the most OBVIOUS Propaganda we have seen in awhile.

For More explanations on the housing numbers, check here:

http://truthingold.blogspot.com/2009/08/was-todays-new-home-sales-number-for.html

YES, it's a blog, not CNN or any Mainstream news source, so keep in mind any information you find there that is not pre-approved by Larry king himself is automatically fallacy, and does not exist. For Entertainment Purposes Only. :)

As for the durable goods numbers, the spin was nice but do you ever wonder how much of this stuff is due to non-defense, and military related activity?

Hmmmmm......

http://forums.wallstreetexaminer.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=645

And finally, for your entertainment, I wanted to share a post I saw this morning on WallStreetBear, from the great eeyore of Economics, mannfm11, which was in response to a Permabull showering everyone with his proclamations that this was the Greatest Bull Market In History, and we were heading for new all-time highs. I don't think even I could have said it better than this:

Bullcrap
mannfm11 - Wed, Aug 26, 2009 - 11:22 AM

This time last year the market was 1300 or there abouts and hadn't fallen below 1200 yet. There are nonsense economic reports being spun as if we are at the peak of some raging economy when the numbers are just flat absurdly low. Green shoots are more like microbiological algae under a microscope in a sewer. The housing numbers never left bubble sales territory, which tells me that once this false economy turns down (there aren't any sales when the government is going broke financing what is being sold, guaranteeing debt in former blue chip companies like GE, and China is rolling cash in the streets like it is on huge rolls of toilet paper), home prices and financing losses are going to the floor. The unemployment claims numbers are huge and the underlying numbers are being spun. The new home sales number today was barely over 400,000, which on an annual basis is a 50 year low number. Kind of like using a park bench to practice high jumping if you ask me.

Where has there been a top? I haven't seen but one pause, back in June in an area where the market was in January. That's January 2009, Raven, not January 2008 or January 2007 when the market was a full 40% higher. We aren't even at the 2/3 point in the all time chart here, yet you would think by what you are writing we were at 20,000. I fully expected the market to be here early this year before turning down, so in my book this rally peak has arrived 6 to 8 months late.

In the meantime, the Fed has destroyed itself, the government has put its finances on the brink of disaster and what we are looking at here are the remnants of John Laws bubble, not a new bull, and the US consumer is done. China is faking world demand by building stuff that will never be used and if the government over there hadn't been doing with finances what ours had to start last year they would have already collapsed.

What is being bulled are depression numbers in the economy and earnings that have actually fallen off the cliff from last year. Who is going to inflate the bubble on the private side again Raven? Is it going to be the Chinese consumer, who earns 1/7 what his US counterpart does and has very little security? Are the US and world banks,which are operating on capital positions roughly 1/2 what they should have going to suddenly become raging lenders? Industrial capacity is a record low 65%, so I guess we are going to get down and build more of that. I venture it is not any better in China and not much better in Europe. The commercial real estate sector is coming unglued so we are going to have a building boom while the banks that finance them are going broke? New home sales are so low on a historical basis that we are in boom territory despite the government attempting to set the market on a tee so even an idiot can buy and a fool can sell real estate again? Where is the new sub prime? FHA/VA? What are their delinquency rates? Seems I saw 14%. Another bailout coming.

There is no legitimate economy and even when we have the inventory snap back, not much is going to happen. The only way they call this a double dip is if they create a recovery out of discarded junk. There wasn't a double dip in 1980, as it was nothing more than a political claim while Volker put the finishing touches on setting up the debt bubble we have today.

As for stocks? Real PE/s are not 15, but more like 60. There are no earnings in the transportation indexes and though they claim about 16 in the Dow, the earnings are suspect with the inclusion of 3 banks who are being allowed to falsify their books and borrowing money for nothing. Dividends, the true test of stock values, as far as the entire blue chip portfolio go, are only 2/3 of historical peak lows. Everything the typical person has witnessed in the stock market since 1987 has to do with it being in a bubble and few can even identify what has occurred and that stocks have never been cheap since they took off in 1990. In the meantime, Raven is going to lend the US the $5 to $8 trillion a year they need on an expanding basis to keep the bubble intact and growing.

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You can feel free to put any and all of those points in that post in your own words and hand them to the next cheerleader that accosts you. :)

http://www.pensitoreview.com/2009/08/26/aarp-poll-86-want-universal-coverage-79-want-public-plan/
AARP Poll: 86% Want Universal Coverage; 79% Want Government Option

Nearly 8 in 10 Americans support a federal health insurance plan for those who can’t afford or can’t get private insurance, but only 37 percent define “public option” correctly, a new national poll found.

The majority of people polled — 86 percent — say insurance should be available to everyone regardless of health history.

And:

…79 percent say they believe a federal government health insurance option should be available for people to buy.

On the downside, the poll, which was sponsored by the AARP and endorsed by Charlie Cook, whose reputation for non-partisanship is unchallenged, found that about a quarter of people confuse the “public option” with national health plans like those offered by every leading democracy in the world, except for the United States.

http://benbittrolff.blogspot.com/2009/08/china-trying-to-talk-its-way-out-of.html
China Trying to Talk Its Way Out of a Bubble

FN: The Chinese government has finally caught on to the fact that they've created a bubble and are trying to "talk it down". As long as the central bank and the rest of the banks continue to provide liquidity, Wen Jiabao is going to be as successful as Alan Greenspan was when he warned of "irrational exuberance" while having his foot placed firmly on the monetary accelerator.

China Stocks Decline as Wen Says Economy Faces ‘Uncertainties’: "Chinese stocks, the world’s worst performers this month, extended declines after Premier Wen Jiabao said the economy faces many “uncertainties” and China Construction Bank Corp. warned of asset bubbles."

Asian Stocks Fall on Lower China Earnings, U.S. Credit Concern: "Asian stocks dropped, led by mining and finance companies on lower profit at Chinese companies and amid speculation loan losses in the U.S. will increase."

http://www.smithsonianmag.com/people-places/Micronations-of-the-World.html
Micronations of the World
Explore these mock sovereign states fueled by local disputes, utopian idealism and the imaginations of a few eccentric individuals

* By Robin T. Reid
* Smithsonian.com, August 24, 2009

Hundreds of micronations exist at any given time, says President Kevin Baugh of the Republic of Molossia, a 6.3-acre micronation established in 1998 within Nevada and California. “Most were started by teenage boys. When they contact me, it’s obvious it’s a kid in his bedroom with a computer; the abysmal spelling usually gives it away,” he explains. “The average lifespan of a micronation is about 90 days, because that’s the average attention span of a teenage boy.”

In this context, a place like Seborga is downright prehistoric. Established in 954 as a seignory of the Holy Roman Empire, the hilltop village near the Italian Riviera managed to maintain its independence largely because it was overlooked by the succession of rulers who took over this part of the world. Seborga issues its own stamps, currency (the luigino, valuable only as a collector’s item), and has consuls in several European nations and Indonesia. The leader of this gorgeous micronation of slightly fewer than 400 people is Prince Giorgio I, first elected in 1963. As far as Italy is concerned, Seborgans are tax-paying residents of Imperia Province.

More than 200 miles north of Seborga is the Republic of Saugeais, a 386-square-mile country surrounded by France. Shortly after World War II, so the story goes, a French official was having lunch at Georges Pourchet’s restaurant in the Saugeais capital of Montbenoit. When Pourchet playfully asked the bureaucrat if he had a pass to visit the republic, the official replied that if it was a republic, a president was necessary. And he then dubbed the restaurant owner president.

Pourchet stayed in that office until he died in 1968; his wife, Gabrielle, succeeded him. In 1972 Mme. Pourchet was elected president for life during a fundraiser to restore Montbenoit’s medieval abbey. Her election was as much about marketing as it was about politics; the 12th-century structure is arguably Saugeais’s main tourist attraction.

to even more bank friendly Tim Johnson (SD).

The death of Sen. Edward Kennedy is likely to have a ripple effect on Senate bank regulation: If Sen. Chris Dodd gains Kennedy's spot chairing the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, he's likely to make his escape from leading the Banking Committee - whose next chairman could be bank-friendly Tim Johnson of South Dakota

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2009/08/26/succession-question-if-dodd-moves-up-will-johnson-be-banking-chair/