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With the Fall of France, the only land power that could confront the German Army in Europe was the Russian Army. The atomic bombs was only available come July 1945, and then only two by August and two more by November 1945 (The US was planning to use gas on Tokyo as part of its invasion plan for Japan, given the limitation imposed do to the lack of fissionable materials to make more bombs). In fact there is a constant rumor, denied often but never truly refuted, that said the Bomb used in Hiroshima used Uranium from a German Submarine sent to Japan in the Spring of 1945 with strategic supplies but that had surrendered to the Allies after Germany surrendered on May 7th, 1945. The amount of weapons grade uranium was limited, in many ways more limited then Plutonium used in the Nagasaki bomb.
Thus the Western Powers would have NOT had the ability to challenge German control over Europe till August 1945. Thus Hitler would have had control over all of Europe from Russia to Spain till August 1945. No Invasion would have been possible for the German Army could send more troops by rail to any location the Western Allies could land troops by sea. Allied forces could have landed and lasted 3-4 days, but then the Full might of the German Army would have arrived to finish them off. Given that sad fact of life no full scale invasion would have occurred, not even in Sicily (Through French North Africa would have been invaded in the fall of 1942, German had no fleet to oppose the US Invasion and to far to send troops by rail).
One other factor comes into play, the German Army from 1939 till the invasion of Russia in June 1941 was dependent on Russia for its oil. The invasion of Russia was a gamble, Germany betting it could take Russia before it ran out of oil it had stored up over the previous year in anticipation of the invasion (This dependency as known to Stalin and appears to be the #1 reason he did NOT think Hitler would attack Russia, once the oil was gone the German Army's ability to maneuver would have disappeared with it). Hitler had three other sources of oil, Romania (These were small compared to Soviet and US oil supplies but important and shut off with Romania falling to the Russians in the fall of 1944), conversion of Coal to oil, and finally importation via Spain from the US (Which was only cut off with the liberation of France in the summer and fall of 1944).
Now, with no war with Russia, the Germans would have had full access to Russian Oil. With that oil, Germany could train and field more planes to intercept the British and American bombers then it had when oil was short after 1941. The ME-109 was one of the best fighters of 1939-1941 period, but was slowly becoming obsolete (being replaced by the FW-190 and then the Jets as the war progressed). Roughly the ME-109 was the same generation as the Spitfire and the American P-40 fighters. The FW-190 was of the same generation as the Mustangs and Thunderbolts. The Germans did not have the fuel to fully train their pilots on the FW-109 and this lack of training came to hurt their ability to shoot down the US and British Bombers in the Bombing attacks of 1942-1945 (The Cut off of Romania and Spain and the destruction of the Coal to oil plants did more to grown the German Air Force then the Air Forces of the Western Allies and the Soviet Union).
My point is no war with Russia, the Air War over Germany would have been a clear failure by 1943. To many bombers were being lost by the US Air Force in its Daylight Campaign and it was becoming more and more clear that the British Night time Campaign was helping the Germans more then hurting the Germans (The Nazis had a hard time convincing Germans to move out of the inner cities to the Suburbs during the 1930s and the early years of the War, with the workers not willing to move, neither were their employer, the bombing campaign provided the push for the Germans to move out of the inner City to the new suburbs around the new Factories, which dispersed the workers and factories and made the British Bomber Campaign harder to show any real effect on German war efforts. Post WWII analysis of the Bombing Campaign confirmed the above, the only effective air campaign was one against the transportation system and that was only implemented in 1945 as part of the Air Forces efforts to support the Ground war.
Thus by August 1945 you would have had a stalemate of over four years in duration. The Germans had no fleet so any invasion of British was risky for them. On the other hand the Germans could defeat any allied invasion within a week of its landing. The Germans would have had peace to fully train its Army, fuel to equip and train its army and Air Force for over four years before the Atomic Bomb is available for use.
One last factor must be considered, the only plane capable of carrying the Atomic Bomb of 1945-1950 (In the 1950s a lighter bomb was invented but that was AFTER the Russian had one themselves and German had the Technology to have one about the same time period) was the B-29. The Atomic Bomb was to heavy for the B-17s and B-24s used in Europe. The B-36 only came into service in 1946 and it only had the ability to hit Europe from the US with an Atomic Bomb. Thus any atomic Bomb would have had to be carried to Britain to be dropped by a B-29, a plane the Germans, unlike the Japanese in 1945, could have intercepted and shot down (especially with no war with the Russians to deny them oil). The US had a limited number of B-29s in 1945 and even the B-29s had to be modified to carry these huge weapons.
Thus the US could have dropped the Atomic Bombs on 2-4 German Cities between August 1945 and November 1945. Then nothing for about another six months (Yes, the US had a limited number of Atomic Bombs in the period 1945-1950, each had to be custom made and this production of fuel for them was also limited). Four bombs would NOT have destroyed the German Ability to retaliate, and in that regard the German had the perfect weapon and target. Only Germany had Nerve Gas during WWII, Hitler refused to use it for he had been gassed during WWI, but Nerve gas was available. In retaliation for an Atomic Bombing Hitler would have overcome his objection to Gas warfare and ordered a full scale Gas attack on London. Remember we are talking about a German NOT tied down with the Russians. Germany would have had the planes to launch such an attack and it would have been deadly, if aimed at London would have cost more English Lives then the Atomic Bombs would have killed Germans. The Western Allies would have responded with Mustard Gas, but it is NOT as effective as Nerve Gas AND German Gas Masks were effective against Mustard, a gas known since WWI, but British and American Gas Masks were NOT design for Nerve gas for the simple reason neither country had determined HOW to make Nerve Gas (the Allies would find out about it as they took over Germany in the Spring of 1945 and were unpleasantly surprised).
Would Churchill have permitted an Atomic Bombing of Germany fully expecting a Gas retaliation? Maybe, but once it was done I see Churchill using unofficial Channels to then end the exchange of weapons. The cost of the Nerve Gas Attack would have been to high, and the value of the Atomic Bombings to low given the German policy of dispersing production after the start of the Air War in 1940.
One last Comment, all of the above is ignoring the U-Boat War in the Atlantic. No Russia, the U-Boats would have had full access to fuel. The Germans would have put more efforts in expanding their Air Force to reach into the Atlantic to stop convoys to Britain. People forget Britain was on its knees in 1943 when Churchill gambled. Churchill gambled that the German would still be using their Enigma Code system no matter HOW often it became clear to the Germans that the only way the British were avoiding their U-Boats (and finding those U-Boats) were do to the code being broken. i.e. the Allies planes were watching at the location the U-boat had said it would be making its next transmission, the U-boat came up and promptly sunk by a B-24. Without the enigma machine being broken the Allies would have lost the War in the Atlantic and sometime in 1943 Churchill would have sued for peace with Hitler. You can NOT go to war when the children at home are starving to death and that was what Churchill was facing when he ordered that all restrictions on the use of the Intercepts from the Enigma be abolished. The fear was that if the Germans put two to two together the enigma would be replaced by an equally complex but different machine. Britain only had the Enigma Machine for the Poles had obtained one and when Poland fell in 1939, transported it to Britain. With use of the first Electronic Computer and the Enigma Machine Britain was able to read the messages sent by the Enigma throughout most of the War (The Classic Case was the German Invasion of Crete, the British Commander made the comment that the Germans promptly followed their own plan). Now Crete also shows the limitation on reading the other side plans, sometime you can NOT do anything to stop them as what happened in Crete in the Spring of 1941 (The British were driven out). In regards to Axis conveys to North Africa, the Allies had to make an effort that they found the conveys via normal search patterns instead of by intercepting the messages. By 1943, the situation in the Atlantic was bad, and something had to be done and Churchill ordered no further efforts to cover up for breaking the Code be made if it meant a delay in attacking an U-Boat OR diverting a Convoy from a U-Boat Pack. This was risky, someone in German Intelligence could have figure this out and ordered new machines (In this regard we have to thank the head of German Intelligence, who more then any other person tried to get rid of Hitler and apparently did all he could do to make sure all evidence that the enigma machine was compromised was covered up, he was part of the July 20th plot to kill Hitler and was hanged for his efforts, but by then the Western Allies were in France and Hitler was doomed).
Yes, the Western allies would have had the Atomic Bomb by August 1945, but Germany would have controlled ALL of Europe AND may even had forced Britain to sue for Peace in 1943-1944 to end the U-Boat war in the North Atlantic. No Western invasion without the Atomic Bomb was possible, thus no invasion even of Italy till Summer of 1945. The 4-6 bombs the US would have had by 1946 (if none used in 1945) would NOT have changed the military situation that much. The last thing an invading army wants is to destroy the transportation system of the country it is invading (other then to deny the enemy transport). The Atomic Bombs could have been used to isolate an invasion beach, but then the roads out of the beach would also have been destroyed, limited transport either way. Britain out do to the U-boat menace would have made even that invasion impossible.
No you have to ignore the fact HOW much of the German Army was tied in with the War with Russia (2/3rds of all German losses were on the Eastern Front, and that includes the period 1939-1941 when their was no Eastern Front). You have to ignore how the access to oil from Russia would have strengthen the German Navy and Air Force in regards to the U-Boat war in the Atlantic. You also have to ignore the fact how limited the production of Atomic Bombs were before the 1950s. If you ignore those three sets of facts, then the Atomic Bombs could have forced Hitler to Surrender in late 1945, but with those three sets of facts, Britain would have sued for peace in 1943-1944. No Surrender by either side but negotiated peace with German Forces being pulled out of France along with the U-boats in exchange for Germany having a free hand in the rest of Europe. Once the atomic Bomb would have been invented in 1945, the Germans like the Russians would have found out about it and start their own crash program.
All of the above was undone by the simple fact Hitler invaded Russia in June 1941. He cut off his best source of oil, he tied up his ground forces, he withdrew financial support for the U-boat arm to strengthen the army. He withdrew financial support for development of a long range bomber (that could have been used in the North Atlantic) in favor of more tactical air support planes. All of these are the result of the German's invasion of Russia. While an invasion of North Africa in the fall of 1942 was possible, maybe even an invasion of Sicily (and maybe even Greece) was possible, but even an invasion of Italy would have been out of the question with a German Army NOT tied up in Russia. Britain would NOT have been able to feed itself if all German effort was converted to the U-Boat war in the Atlantic and be force to come to some sort of agreement by 1944 with Hitler. By the time an Atomic bomb would have been ready, peace would have been declared over Europe for over a year (Japan would have been another story, but we are talking about the case if Russia had NOT been at war with Germany 1941-1945).
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