STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday September 3

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday September 3, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Under Indictment = 2
Financial Sector Officials In Prison = 6

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 2, 2009

Dow... 9,280.67 -29.93 (-0.32%)
Nasdaq... 1,967.07 -1.82 (-0.09%)
S&P 500... 994.75 -3.29 (-0.33%)
Gold future... 978.50 +22.00 (+2.30%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.30 -0.06 (-1.87%)
30-Year Bond 4.12 -0.07 (-1.72%)

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

---

Handy Links - Market Data and News:
Economic Calendar    Marketwatch Data    Bloomberg Economic News    Yahoo! Finance
    Google Finance    LayoffDaily    Bank Tracker    Credit Union Tracker

Handy Links - Economic Blogs:
The Big Picture    Financial Sense    Calculated Risk    Naked Capitalism    Credit Writedowns
    Brad DeLong    Bonddad    Atrios    goldmansachs666

Handy Links - Government Issues:
LegitGov    Open Government    Earmark Database    USA spending.gov

Handy Links - Videos:
The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class    Charlie Rose talks with Roubini    Charlie Rose talks with Krugman

---

This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

Reg FD...Fair Disclosure or Foggy Distortion
BY RICHARD A. ECKERT

The intent

On August 15, 2000, the SEC adopted Reg FD (Fair Disclosure) to address the selective disclosure by issuers of publicly traded securities of material nonpublic information to certain individuals—e.g., sell-side stock analysts and large holders of the issuers’ securities—who then have the opportunity to trade on the basis of such information before it becomes public. Reg FD was one of several measures adopted by government regulatory agencies and securities industry self-regulatory organizations in the wake of Internet/tech meltdown. That meltdown exposed numerous conflicts of interests involving—among others—stock analysts, accountants, and corporate executives as well as unsavory practices such as spinning (the award of “hot” IPO shares to executives of existing corporate clients by underwriters in exchange for future business). The thread weaving itself through all the new rules and regulations was the desire to level the playing field among market participants—especially between insiders (or effective insiders) and the general public and between large investors and small.

In this author’s opinion, the success of the various measures alluded to above in leveling the playing field have been mixed at best. Indeed, I feel that, in some cases, the new rules and regulations—or perhaps it is the manner in which they have been selectively enforced or ignored by those charged with carrying them out—have only strengthened the hand of insiders and institutions. While the various conflict-of-interest regulations and other measures adopted in the wake of the bursting of the “tech bubble” are outside the scope of this article, I believe that Reg FD—which is the subject of this piece—is illustrative of their collective ineffectiveness in rendering the securities markets a fair and even venue for trading and investing.

.....

The reality

The irony here is that Reg FD actually tilted the playing field in favor of larger investors and insiders (or effective insiders). Even if these investors never communicated with management—or never came into possession of any material nonpublic information—their much greater research and other resources enabled them to develop their own proprietary data. For smaller investors, the only way of neutralizing this “information advantage” was to obtain data they deemed critically important to their decision-making from management. Now, not only is management unlikely to share such information with small investors, but access to management itself—always difficult for smaller stakeholders—is probably not forthcoming at all.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

Pay your money, take your pick, then shuffle it amongst yourselves.

08:30 Initial Claims 08/29
Briefing.com 550K
Consensus 565K
Prior 570K

10:00 ISM Services Aug
Briefing.com 48.7
Consensus 48.0
Prior 46.4

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

U.S. initial jobless claims fall 4,000 to 570,000
8:30am Today

U.S. continuing jobless claims up 92,000 to 6.23 M
8:30am Today

U.S. 4-week average new claims highest in 7 weeks
8:30am Today

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/initial-jobless-claims-down-4000-to-570000-2009-09-03

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The number of people filing for state unemployment benefits for the first time fell by 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 570,000 last week, the U.S. Labor Department reported Thursday. The four-week average of seasonally adjusted new claims rose 4,000 to 571,250, the highest in eight weeks. Meanwhile, the number of people collecting regular state benefits rose by 92,000 in the week ending Aug. 22 to a seasonally adjusted 6.23 million. The insured unemployment rate rose to 4.7% from 4.6%. The four-week average of continuing claims fell 27,250 to 6.22 million, the lowest since April. The number of people collecting benefits of any kind was 9.65 million, not seasonally adjusted.

Initial claims and continuing claims don't seem like very good indicators. They miss a lot of people, and don't say much about how many found jobs. According to BLS, 14,462,000 were unemployed as of July, 2009. That was an improvement over June of about 260,000.

U.S. Aug. ISM service inventory 43% vs 47% July
10:06am Today

U.S. Aug ISM service activity 51.3% vs 46.1% prev
10:04am Today

U.S. Aug. ISM service jobs 43.5% vs 41.5% prev
10:03am Today

U.S. Aug. ISM service orders 49.9% vs 48.1% July
10:03am Today

******
it's always in the revisions - somehow these things must be done delicately :snarl:

SINGAPORE – Oil prices rose toward $69 a barrel Thursday in Asia as mixed U.S. crude inventory data shed little light on demand.

Benchmark crude for October delivery was up 64 cents at $68.69 a barrel at late afternoon Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract Wednesday settled unchanged at $68.05.

The U.S. Energy Department's Energy Information Administration on Wednesday said crude inventories fell 372,000 barrels last week, while analysts had expected a drop of 1.9 million barrels, according to a survey by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos.

.....

In other Nymex trading, gasoline for October delivery rose 0.74 cent to $1.82 a gallon and heating oil gained 0.99 cent to $1.76 a gallon. Natural gas was steady at $2.72 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

NEW YORK – Nearly seven miles below the Gulf of Mexico, oil company BP has tapped into a vast pool of crude after digging the deepest oil well in the world. The Tiber Prospect is expected to rank among the largest petroleum discoveries in the United States, potentially producing half as much crude in a day as Alaska's famous North Slope oil field.

The company's chief of exploration on Wednesday estimated that the Tiber deposit holds between 4 billion and 6 billion barrels of oil equivalent, which includes natural gas. That would be enough to satisfy U.S. demand for crude for nearly one year. But BP does not yet know how much it can extract.

......

The Tiber well is about 250 miles southeast of Houston in U.S. waters. At 35,055 feet, it is as deep as Mount Everest is tall, not including more than 4,000 feet of water above it.

.....

For an ambitious project like Tiber to pay off, experts say crude must cost at least $70 to $75 per barrel, though lower prices have never slowed the industry. When crude prices fell below $20 per barrel in the late 1990s, exploration and Thunder Horse never slowed.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090903/ap_on_bi_ge/us_gulf_oil_discovery_8

Don't 'cha think?

One year (MAYBE) of oil and natural gas........ But then again, I know a caseworkers who told me the most burnt out of crack-heads will smoke wire scrubbers because they've forgotten that they used to use them as screens and only remember that they felt good when they lit them up and puffed.....

(Boggler == Brit):

I like cheese sandwiches. They just don't like me. (The former giving them some points over the French....)

Brazilian president aims to eradicate poverty with oil billions

* guardian.co.uk, Monday 31 August 2009 18.24 BST

Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva today vowed to pump billions of petrodollars into the war on poverty in the wake of one of the world's biggest oil discoveries this decade.

Speaking on his weekly radio show, president Lula said: "Monday, 31 August, represents a new independence day for Brazil.

"We are talking about a discovery of oil that is almost 6,000m , huge reserves that place Brazil among the biggest oil producers in the world."

He claimed that new legislation he is planning would allow profits to be used to "take care of" education and poverty once and for all.

Brazil has been celebrating an unexpected oil boom since November 2007, when state-controlled energy company Petrobras discovered the Tupi oilfield off Brazil's southeast coast.

Tupi, estimated to contain around 8bn barrels of oil, was the biggest discovery in the Americas in more than 30 years. Following the discovery president Lula declared: "God is Brazilian".

His regional rival, Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez, joked the Brazilian president should be renamed "Sheikh Lula".

The Tupi field is part of the so-called "pre-salt" band, an 800km strip containing a series of vast deep-water oil reservoirs which could hold as much as 150bn barrels of oil.

The discovery of the region led Brazil to suspend the auctioning of all offshore oil blocks pending new legislation, intended to give the government a larger slice of profits. Lula is expected to create a "social fund", designed to channel oil profits into poverty-reduction initiatives, and should hand greater control of "strategic" oilfields to the government.

/... http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/aug/31/brazil-oil-war-on-poverty

BOSTON/NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. securities regulators missed "numerous" red flags that may have led to Bernard Madoff's $65 billion Ponzi scheme and never did a "thorough and competent" probe despite complaints dating to 1992, a federal watchdog has concluded.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's inspector general said in a blistering report that despite five probes and having caught Madoff in "lies and misrepresentations," the SEC failed to follow up on inconsistencies.

.....

He said the SEC had made a "surprising discovery" earlier this decade that Madoff's hedge fund business was making far more money than his better known market-making business, but no one thought this was a "cause for concern."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090903/bs_nm/us_sec_madoff

Madoff was ON the SEC advisory board, and used that fact to assure his victims, as well as all the "investigations" which didn't even scratch the surface or look at the legitimate complaints that were frequently filed...

Alistair Darling is scrambling to plug a gaping hole in the $1.1 trillion global rescue package agreed by G20 leaders in London — hailed at the time as Gordon Brown’s biggest success.

Some countries, led by Germany, are even calling for the bailout to be scaled back amid fears that it risks burdening economies with too much debt and could encourage inflation.

The breakdown of unity reflects the different speeds at which countries are emerging from recession and conflicting views about the outlook for the global economy.

.....

Officials admit that almost $200 billion (£123 billion) pledged in credit facilities for the International Monetary Fund has yet to materialise. Most embarrassingly, the shortfall includes $75 billion due from the European Union. The Chancellor has warned Europe to set an example and do more to meet the target of $500 billion. Britain has agreed to lend up to $15 billion to poorer economies and is willing to provide up to $11 billion more as part of an EU package. So far, none of the extra credit has been called in by the IMF, although government insiders believe that it will be needed to prop up struggling economies before long.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6819450.ece

LONDON -- Retail sales in the 16 countries that use the euro fell in July, driven by a drop in purchases of food and alcohol, data from the European Union's statistics agency Eurostat showed Thursday.

Private-sector activity in the euro zone, meanwhile, expanded for the first time in 15 months in August, but a survey of purchasing managers suggested the region's recovery from the most severe recession since World War II will be gradual.

Sales volumes in the euro zone fell 0.2% from June and declined 1.8% from July 2008. Volumes for the month were weaker than expected, with economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires last week having estimated that sales steadied in July. Compared with July 2008, however, sales were down less sharply, with economists having forecast a drop of 2.3%.

The June retail-sales data were revised to show that sales were unchanged from May, and were down 2.0% on the year. Eurostat originally reported sales fell 0.2% on the month and by 2.4% on the year.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125196577800082611.html

(Debt up a lot of billions: 87, FICA side down thirteen billion hiding some of the debt rise. Quiet morning on the thread. Good morning to all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,481,218,854,095.12 + 4,311,699,316,741.31
UP 87,210,147,628.98 + DOWN 13,050,918,423.45

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 307-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.76, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,332,021 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 08/24/2009 13:24 -> 307,261,605
Currently, each of these Americans owe $38,371.91.
A family of three owes $115,115.74. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 5,621,219,151.45.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,122,227,377.73.
The average for the last 32 days would be 3,864,588,166.62.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 154 reports in 224 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.52B$ per report, 5.21B$/day so far.
There were 229 reports in 336 days of FY2009 averaging 7.72B$ per report, 5.26B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,237 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.5 and 18.3T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
09/01/2009 11,792,918,170,836.43 BHO (UP 1,166,041,121,923.35 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,768,193,273,924.00 so far this fiscal year, broken down below:
Borrowed in FY2009: 0,602,152,152,000.59 in part from time during Bush reign.
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,166,041,121,923.35 in part since Obama takes over.


LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
08/11/2009 +000,246,752,500.45 ------------********
08/12/2009 +000,081,638,592.29 ------------*******
08/13/2009 +004,096,319,823.99 ------------*********
08/14/2009 +000,017,806,259.60 ------------*******
08/17/2009 +012,224,191,599.44 ------------********** Mon
08/18/2009 +036,282,270,009.21 ------------**********
08/19/2009 +000,703,521,737.77 ------------********
08/20/2009 +001,088,553,104.23 ------------*********
08/21/2009 +000,333,547,281.04 ------------********
08/24/2009 +000,472,040,908.69 ------------******** Mon
08/25/2009 +000,287,748,587.67 ------------********
08/26/2009 -000,466,043,865.86 ---
08/27/2009 +008,131,449,864.04 ------------*********
08/28/2009 +000,123,059,531.85 ------------********
09/01/2009 +087,210,147,628.98 ------------********** Tue

150,833,003,563.39 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4042733&mesg_id=4042824

UK, France, Germany call for G20 post-crisis plan
Thu Sep 3, 2009 6:58am EDT CALIGNY, France, Sept 3 (Reuters) - Britain, France and Germany called on the G20 on Thursday to discuss exiting measures implemented to tackle economic crisis, as well as limits on bank bonuses, at a forthcoming summit in Pittsburgh.

In a joint letter to European leaders, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy said major economies had to avoid creating new global imbalances as the recession receded.

They said that although the world economy was stabilising, the crisis was not yet over and urged governments to implement fully their recovery plans while ensuring that they did not create the conditions for new global imbalances in the future.

"We must therefore work on exit strategies that will be implemented in a coordinated fashion as soon as the crisis has ended," their joint letter said.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINL352421020090903?rpc=44&sp=true

(Debt up a third of a billion, FICA side up almost four and two-thirds billions.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,481,532,410,836.93 + 4,316,011,290,451.45
UP 313,556,741.81 + UP 4,311,973,710.14

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 307-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.76, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,340,661 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 08/24/2009 13:24 -> 307,261,605
Currently, each of these Americans owe $38,385.89.
A family of three owes $115,157.66. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 33 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 5,577,928,338.42.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,276,411,726.12.
The average for the last 33 days would be 3,887,647,023.75.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 155 reports in 225 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.50B$ per report, 5.20B$/day so far.
There were 230 reports in 337 days of FY2009 averaging 7.71B$ per report, 5.26B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,236 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.5 and 18.3T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
09/02/2009 11,797,543,701,288.38 BHO (UP 1,170,666,652,375.30 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,772,818,804,375.90 so far this fiscal year, broken down below:
Borrowed in FY2009: 0,602,152,152,000.59 in part from time during Bush reign.
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,170,666,652,375.30 in part since Obama takes over.


LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
08/12/2009 +000,081,638,592.29 ------------*******
08/13/2009 +004,096,319,823.99 ------------*********
08/14/2009 +000,017,806,259.60 ------------*******
08/17/2009 +012,224,191,599.44 ------------********** Mon
08/18/2009 +036,282,270,009.21 ------------**********
08/19/2009 +000,703,521,737.77 ------------********
08/20/2009 +001,088,553,104.23 ------------*********
08/21/2009 +000,333,547,281.04 ------------********
08/24/2009 +000,472,040,908.69 ------------******** Mon
08/25/2009 +000,287,748,587.67 ------------********
08/26/2009 -000,466,043,865.86 ---
08/27/2009 +008,131,449,864.04 ------------*********
08/28/2009 +000,123,059,531.85 ------------********
09/01/2009 +087,210,147,628.98 ------------********** Tue
09/02/2009 +000,313,556,741.81 ------------********

150,899,807,804.75 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4044050&mesg_id=4044082

LONDON (Reuters) - World stocks ticked higher on Thursday, bolstered by firmer Chinese shares, while the euro gained and the region's government bonds slipped ahead of a European Central Bank monetary policy decision.

...

"There's been a firmer tone in equities and that's taking the luster off safe-haven assets ... but the moves are limited by the market's focus on the ECB," said Richard McGuire, rate strategist at RBC Capital Markets. MSCI world equity index (^MIWD00000PUS - News) was up 0.2 percent while the FTSEurofirst 300 index (^FTEU3 - News) rose 0.1 percent. Volatile Chinese shares (^SSEC - News) closed 4.8 percent higher.

...

Group of 20 finance chiefs meeting in London for a two-day meeting from Friday are set to tentatively discuss exit strategies -- plans to wind down trillions of dollars of fiscal and monetary stimulus measures.

However, some policymakers are keen to stress their commitment to keep stimulus in place until the recovery becomes self-sustainable, which would be supportive of risky assets.

"(The G20 meeting) is likely to show tension between countries, with some wanting to prepare exit strategies and others warning that an early exit, especially from expansionary monetary policy measures, could lead to a double dip," BNP Paribas said in a note to clients.

SHANGHAI CORRELATION

Emerging stocks (^MSCIEF - News) rose almost 1 percent.

Shanghai stocks (^SSEC - News) climbed after China's top regulator assured investors that the country's market was healthy, sparking hopes of government policy support.

Chinese stocks have been increasingly correlated with other share markets.

According to Brown Brothers Harriman, the correlation between the Shanghai index and the S&P 500 index has shot up in the last three months and is now more than three times more closely correlated than over the past two years.

The correlation between the euro/dollar exchange rate and the Shanghai index is now at its highest since the second quarter of 2007.

/... http://finance.yahoo.com/news/World-stocks-tick-higher-ECB-rb-904043993.html?x=0&.v=2

Sept. 3 (Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said the euro region’s recession has probably ended and boosted its economic forecasts for this year and next.

“There are signs the contraction of economic activity has come to an end and is followed by period of stabilization and very gradual recovery,” he told reporters in Frankfurt after the ECB kept the benchmark rate at a record low of 1 percent. The bank now expects the economy to expand around 0.2 percent in 2010 after forecasting a contraction of 0.3 percent in June.

The revised forecasts are the latest to paint a better picture of the economy, with the Organization for Economic Co- operation and Development earlier today forecasting a “modest” global recovery. Trichet is nevertheless wary of nipping the euro-region recovery in the bud by tightening policy too soon as rising unemployment and the expiry of government rescue packages may damp expansion next year.

/.. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&sid=a0J.SYLyaT2A

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 78.117 Change -0.267 (-0.34%)

Euro Rallies Ahead of the ECB Rate Decision, British Pound Crosses Advance

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_brief/Euro_Rallies_Ahead_of_the_1251975369945.html

The EUR/USD advanced for the second day to reach a high of 1.4315 during the European trade and remained bid throughout the session despite the unexpected fall in retail sales. Nevertheless, a Bloomberg News survey shows all of the 58 economists polled forecast the European Central Bank to hold the benchmark interest rate at 1.00% later today and is widely expected to adjust their growth forecast at this month’s meeting, and the euro is likely to hold a narrow range over the next hour of trade as the markets await for the policy statement due out at 11:45 GMT.

Retail spending in the Euro-Zone slipped 0.2% in July amid expectations for a 0.1% rise, while the annual rate of consumption fell 1.8% from the previous year versus forecasts for a 2.2% decline. The breakdown of the report showed discretionary spending on food and drinks dropped 0.5% from the previous month, while demands for non-food products held flat during the month. Moreover, the economic docket showed service-based activity fell at a slower pace in August, with Markit Economists revising the PMI reading to 49.9 from 49.5, while the composite reading increased to 50.4 from an initial reading of 50.0. As the outlook for future growth remains highly uncertain, the ECB may continue to hold a dovish outlook for inflation throughout the second-half of the year as President Trichet see a risk for a slower recovery, and commentary following the rate decision is likely to stoke increased volatility in the euro cross rates as investors weigh the outlook for future policy.

Cable pushed higher day against the euro and the greenback for the second day, and the British pound may continue to retrace the sell-off from the previous month as the economic outlook improves. Service-based activity in the U.K. expanded for the fourth consecutive month in August, with the PMI reading advancing to 54.1 from 53.2 in July, and the data encourages an improved outlook for future growth as services accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy. The breakdown of the report showed business expectations increased to 72.3 from 69.3 in the previous month, and firms are likely to ramp up expectations for an economic recovery as the Bank of England pledges GBP 175B in asset purchases to ease the flow of credit. As the economic docket for the U.K. lacks market-moving potential, risk trends are likely to dictate price action for the British pound over the next 24-hours of trading, and the rise in risk appetite may lead the GBP/USD to cross back above the 20-Day moving average at 1.6418 as we head into the U.S. session.

The U.S. dollar weakened for the second day following the rebound in market sentiment, but advanced against the Japanese yen to halt the three-day decline. As risk trends continue to drive price action in the currency market, the rise in equity futures foreshadows a higher open for the U.S. market, and the reserve currency may continue to lose ground over the next few hours of trading as investors move into higher yielding assets. Nevertheless, service-based activity in the U.S. is expected to fall at a slower pace in August, with economists forecasting the ISM index to rise to 48.0 from 46.4 in July, while initial and continuing claims for unemployment benefits are anticipated to fall to 565K and 6125K from 570K and 6133K, respectively. As growth prospects improve, the rise in the fundamental outlook could stoke increased demands for the greenback as investors anticipate the Federal Reserve to tighten policy over the next 12-months.

...more...

Dollar Will have to Turn to Risk Aversion as Rate Forecasts Dim

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strategy_pieces/watch_what_the_fed_watches/Dollar_Will_have_to_Turn_1251940873692.html



The Economy and the Credit Market



Over the past week, the dollar has maintained its high-level volatility; but the pace of the market still has not translated into direction. This is partially a consequence of thin liquidity through the end of the summer and into the long, holiday weekend; but the same general affliction for the broader speculative market suggests the unusual calm has deeper fundamental roots. Investor sentiment (and thereby capital markets) has steadily appreciated over the past six months through an evolution of early adoption, an influx of sidelined capital and on prospects for an economic recovery. Yet, just as pessimism overshot reality through the end of the financial crisis; so too can optimism exceed reasonable expectations for returns when the masses are eager to reenter the market and recover wealth lost over the past two years. Sentiment makes for an overwhelming theme and it will very likely decide the ultimate break in the dollar and its subsequent trend. However, these fundamental winds will steadily lose their influence with the markets and the greenback in particular. Ultimately, the degradation of this fundamental link may very well be hastened by the economic prospects for the currency itself. Growth and interest rate forecasts could shift the dollar’s position on the risk spectrum. Though, with speculation of early rate cuts constantly checked and actual expansion elusive, it seems the US will maintain its anti-risk qualities.

...more...

NEW YORK, Sept 3 (Reuters) - U.S. gold futures rose to a
fresh three-month high Thursday in follow-through buying from
the previous session as underlying economic uncertainty
prompted investors to allocate funds into safe-haven hard
assets.

...

* Asset-diversification demand into gold by jittery
investors amid shaky equities markets propelled gold's rally -
Bill O'Neill, managing director of LOGIC Advisors.

...

* Gold driven higher by safe-haven buying due to concerns
about the U.S. financial sector, and the recent positive
correlation between the metal and equities was notably broken
this week - analysts.

...

* Inflow related to the closure of energies and other
commodities exchange-traded products because of expected new
regulations on commodities market prompted investors to step up
buying in gold - traders.

...

* Gold/oil ratio at 14.42, up from the previous session's
14.22. Gold has outperformed oil this week, a sign that
inflation expectations could be on the rise.

...

* Silver futures have recently outperformed gold, helped by
better economic sentiment. Usually less-liquid silver has the
characteristics of both precious and industrial metals.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/usDollarRpt/idUSN0338240720090903

(Reuters) - Costco Wholesale Corp on Thursday reported a smaller-than-expected 2 percent fall in August same-store sales, in a sign that the impact of the financial crisis is waning on U.S. consumer spending.

Analysts, on average, were expecting a fall of 5.7 percent in same-store sales, according to Thomson Reuters data.

Same-store sales at U.S. locations fell 4 percent, while international division sales rose 3 percent.

Excluding gasoline price deflation, the company said U.S. comparable sales would have been flat, while on a local currency basis international same-store sales increased 7 percent.

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousivMolt/idUSTRE5822K820090903

Sorry, lost the link.

The humiliation of being AIG's shortest-lived CEO would be like divine retribution for this congenital assaholic.

my puppy woke me early - :yawn:

one knows that this man has highly illegal plans for running AIG. With Cuomo being so silent in response, I expect he has the same thought.

The article only talks about the BoD being concerned about the man being so vocal with not one word about being concerned about his plans for the company.

Forbidding people to withdraw their money. What if this spreads to other mutual funds that withdrawals can't be taken? Bad news.

9/1/09 (from yesterday)

Cerberus Capital Management LP on Tuesday dismissed market speculation that some of its hedge funds, which have suffered losses and heavy redemptions, are in danger of default.

Traders in London and Frankfurt were buzzing with talk that a major hedge fund was headed for default. Much of the talk was directed at Cerberus, a private equity and hedge fund firm hit hard by losses on investments in Chrysler and GMAC.

"There is absolutely no truth to the speculation," said Tim Price, a Cerberus managing director and spokesman for the firm.

High-profile investment losses at Cerberus prompted investors recently to seek the withdrawal of $4.77 billion from two of its hedge funds. That represents about 60 percent of the $7.9 billion managed by Cerberus Partners LP and Cerberus International LP, and 19 percent of Cerberus' total $24.3 billion in assets managed through a dozen funds.

People familiar with the firm played down the redemptions, saying they were driven by a need for liquidity among investors -- including funds-of-hedge funds facing their own withdrawal requests -- rather than a loss of confidence in a firm that has generated average annual returns of 20 percent since it was founded in 1992.

Indeed, Cerberus last month raised $1 billion to purchase distressed companies and securities, and it expects to raise two new distressed asset funds in the fourth quarter, people familiar with the firm's plans said.

Cerberus, named for the mythological three-headed dog guarding the gates of Hades, built a strong track record by quietly investing in hard-hit companies, debt and real estate. Its winning streak ended when it led $15 billion of investments for control of Chrysler and GMAC, the former finance arm of General Motors.

Cerberus wrote down most if its Chrysler investment when the automaker headed into bankruptcy earlier this year, while its GMAC stake was slammed when the U.S. government bailed out the lender.

The Cerberus Partners LP and Cerberus International LP funds lost more than 20 percent last year, blocked clients from withdrawing funds in December, and halted making new investments during the fourth quarter. The funds are little changed this year.

Recently, Cerberus asked clients of the two funds whether they wanted to stick with their investments, at a lower fee, or depart. Investors with more than 70 percent of fund assets not controlled by Cerberus partners elected to pull out.

Those who asked to exit will not receive all their money for as much as four years. Fund assets are put aside into a special vehicle that will liquidate them over time.

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE5804B520090901

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE5817EK20090903?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A U.S. federal judge ruled that Morgan Stanley (MS.N) and two credit rating agencies must defend fraud charges in a class-action lawsuit accusing them of masking the risks of an investment linked to subprime mortgages, and which eventually collapsed.

U.S. District Judge Shira Scheindlin on Wednesday rejected efforts by Morgan Stanley, Moody's Corp's (MCO.N) Moody's Investors Service and McGraw-Hill Cos' (MHP.N) Standard & Poor's to dismiss fraud claims brought by the plaintiffs, Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank and King County in Washington state.

She dismissed the plaintiffs' remaining claims, and all claims against a fourth defendant, Bank of New York Mellon Corp (BK.N), while granting permission for the plaintiffs to amend their complaint.

Scheindlin's ruling could affect other lawsuits brought by pension funds and other investors, seeking to hold banks and credit raters responsible for hyping the value of complex debt to win fees and causing investor losses as the debt collapsed.

The case concerned the Cheyne Structured Investment Vehicle (SIV), which went bankrupt in August 2007 after the quality of its assets plummeted. Many investors in Cheyne-related notes lost much or all of their investments.

SIVs are complex packages of loans and debt, including collateralized debt obligations, that once held some $350 billion of assets before falling out of favor.

...more...

(edited for the dreaded double post)

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE5816FN20090902?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission said on Wednesday it will issue its first expanded trader reports on Friday as the regulator moves to provide more insight into who is doing business on futures exchanges.

Market watchers said the move was a small step in the right direction.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission said in early July it would overhaul its weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report to provide more information about exchange contract positions held by traders.

"For the first time, we will break out managed money and swaps in our COT reports and release information on index investment to give the public a better of view of trading activity in the futures markets," CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler said in a statement.

The Commitments of Traders report is a crucial supply and demand indicator for traders buying and selling futures on energy, agricultural and other major commodity markets.

...more...

here's where the fart was let:



more here - http://www.citizen.org/documents/Blind_Faith.pdf

If you wondered how bad this recession is going to get - why we're going to have an all-on 1930s repeat - let me present to you CNN's "What I Bought With My $8,000 Tax Credit":

Location: Newport News, Va.
Property: 3 bed, 2.5 bath townhouse
Price: $257,000

When buying, the biggest problem I had was how to come up with a down payment. The house was $257,000, and I needed to put down 3.5% to meet the FHA rules. I didn't have all of the $9,000 required, but then I found out about the FHA's new program where you can use the tax credit for the down payment. Using the plan, which the FHA announced in May, I was able to buy the house without draining all our savings.

I got a great deal on the mortgage. The interest rate is just 3.5% for the first year and costs about $1,500 a month, with taxes and insurance. The rate goes to 4.5% the second year and caps after that at 5.5%, about $1,900 monthly, which we should be able to swing as our earnings go up.

Two problems: Townhouses come with assessments, which are an added bug-a-boo compared to a house. There are two sorts: Regular assessments which (usually) are level and easily planned for, and then special assessments that come from needs in the common areas (sometimes including roofs and such) or if someone (for instance) gets hurt in the common areas and sues.

If you can't save up the $9,000 down payment you also can't cover a blown-up washer, dryer, water heater or stove. You further have no chance of covering a special assessment.

Finally, what if your earnings don't go up? Pay any attention to the employment situation my friends? There is enormous slack in the employment market and a much greater chance you will experience an income decrease than increase over the next five years. One of you might lose you job, for openers. While you probably clear the income bar for sound ownership ($86k or so between the two of you) with both working, I'll bet neither of you does alone. You're a layoff away from instant disaster with no reserves.

Location: Portland, Maine
Property: 3-family home
Price: $255,000

I didn't want to dip into my retirement account for a down payment, and the tax credit let me buy a three-family house without emptying my retirement.

Again, no skin in the game. What happens if the price continues to decline? While a 3-family home for $255,000 is reasonably safe I suspect, the fact remains that now you're a landlord and if you have no savings (you need to hit a retirement account) you've also got no cushion against one of your units being empty for a while or (god forbid) a new roof or other significant repair. I also question the income-to-price ratio if you needed to do this in order to make the numbers work - cancel that objection if you make $85,000 a year or more and your job is secure, but the fact remains that with no liquid savings any interruption in income means trouble - fast.

more --> http://market-ticker.org/archives/1399-Making-Foreclosures-One-At-A-Time.html

Steve Liesman once again stunned me with his lack of understanding of matters economic today, when he commented that "in all recessions since 1970 at least the original part of it (recovery) has been jobless."

Yes, Steve, but why is any of this a surprise? What part of this graph isn't instantly obvious to anyone with more than two firing neurons in their head?



That's credit and population growth normed to a base of 1970. Population went from roughly 205 million to roughly 304 million during that time, a 50% increase.

Outstanding consumer credit went from $128 billion to $2,525 billion, or a 1,973% increase - and this is only consumer credit, ignoring mortgages, financial firm credit, business credit, commercial real estate and of course government debt!

Why are we not seeing "robust" economic growth when we exit recessions? Why is there no real hiring going on? Why can we not have a robust economic recovery? Why are we are replacing good jobs with "McJobs" that pay half as much - or less? And more importantly, where did all the "so-called prosperity" really come from, especially from 1994 on?

In each and every instance of recession from 1970 onward we have "pulled forward" more and more demand and created fake "prosperity" through the creation of ever more debt that we have goaded consumers to take on. By doing so we have crippled the ability of the economy to grow, redirecting as much money as possible to a handful of people and firms (commonly known as "banks" and other "financial companies") instead of directing that effort and money into productive enterprises such as building cars, television sets and similar items.

more --> http://market-ticker.org/archives/1400-Why-Our-Economy-Is-Utterly-Screwed.html

How much are 1,000 Facebook friends worth?

According to Leon Hill, $177.30.

That’s the price that Hill’s online marketing firm uSocial.net is selling Facebook friends for, through a new service that has already raised alarms within Facebook.

Hill’s reputation as a notorious peddler of online souls precedes him, having launched a similar service selling Twitter followers to clients earlier this year.

Another endeavor, in which he sought to “game” social bookmarking site Digg by letting advertisers buy votes to push certain stories to the top of the site, earned him a cease-and-desist letter from Digg’s attorneys, he says. (A Digg representative said the company could not comment).

Now, uSocial has set it sights on Facebook, which Hill believes will be the greatest opportunity yet.

“It’s going to be massive. There are about 20 times more people on Facebook” than on Twitter, said Hill in a telephone interview from his home-base in Brisbane, Australia on Wednesday.

The idea is to provide a company with a giant pool of Facebook friends, which Hill’s clients can then market to. “With Facebook it’s always up to the person whether they want to be a friend or not. They can always remove them later,” said Hill.

Facebook doesn’t see it that way. “We’re just beginning an investigation now, but it’s clear to us that potential customers of their service should be cautious,” Facebook said in a statement.

“The value of a person that is tricked, coerced or bribed into being a Facebook friend or fan is extremely limited and may actually work against whatever goals the customer is attempting to achieve,” the statement continued.

Facebook also warned that its terms of service prohibit people from using their profile for commercial gain and that users found violating the policy could have their accounts permanently disabled.

Hill says he’s gotten better at covering his tracks since his Twitter and Digg days. He no longer uses any automated software to find users, and he routinely changes his servers’ IP addresses.

So long as a client doesn’t admit that they’ve paid for friends, there’s no way for Facebook to find out, Hill contended.

According to Hill, he’s already signed up 30 clients in the first six hours that his Facebook service has been available. Demand is so strong that Hill believes he’ll easily double the $60,000 a month in sales that he claims his company currently generates.

“The one thing about this business, people either love what I do or hate what I do,” said Hill.

http://blogs.reuters.com/mediafile/2009/09/03/facebook-account-free-friends-about-18-cents-apiece/

• UK refuses request to bail out Cayman Islands
• Workers' benefits not paid as state runs out of cash

The white sands of Seven Mile Beach on Grand Cayman have long caressed the toes of the world's wealthiest financiers, who flock to this balmy spit to avoid the taxman's prying eyes.

But the world's biggest hedge-fund venue and fifth-biggest bank centre is now threatened, as the government of the Cayman Islands heads for bankruptcy — unable to pay its own staff and facing the prospect of introducing taxes as income from the world's shrunken financial system collapses.

But the situation is about to get worse after the British government, which has ultimate responsibility for the islands, last week refused to bail out the Caribbean idyll. It is not convinced the country will have the money to pay it back.

At the same time, hundreds of civil servants found that pension contributions and health insurance payments were missing from their pay slips. Contractors and government suppliers also had bills unpaid.

The leader of government business, William McKeeva Bush, begged the British government to borrow $310m (£190m) from banks. In a strongly worded response, Chris Bryant, a junior Foreign Office minister, has demanded the Caymans cut its borrowing and debt. And in a shockwave that will send tremors through the island's financial elite, Bryant even suggested that the tax haven introduce taxes.

"I fear you will have no choice but to consider new taxes – perhaps payroll and property taxes," Bryant wrote to Bush. "I understand, of course, that in so doing you will want to consider carefully the implications for Caymans' economy, including the financial services industry."

The wealth in the Caymans is staggering. Its hedge funds alone look after $2.3tn (£1.4tn), according to figures last year, and its GDP places it as the world's 12th richest jurisdiction, despite a population of only 51,900.

. . .

The Cayman Islands, like most Caribbean island nations, is deeply divided socially and economically. On the one hand there are the ultra-wealthy – Microsoft's Paul Allen and golf champion Tiger Woods both moor their yachts there. On the other there are the native Caymanians, many of whom live in simple single-storey breeze block homes typical of the islands, with chickens and goats running about on scrub-like surrounding land. They are poor people who largely exist on the island to serve the wealthy in the hotels, private clubs and staffed households.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/sep/01/cayman-islands-tax-haven-bankrupt

A wire broke--likely story.

It was like being deaf and dumb. I actually finished a book I've been reading, and pulled weeds. And slept, really hard (of course, babysitting the grandpuppy may have had something to do with that).

Maybe I need more time cut off from the rest of the world. What do you all think?

:hide:


Seriously, I think it's a toss-up. SMW/WEE keeps me sane, but it also keeps me from other productive work. But without it, I wouldn't get any productive work done.


Tansy Gold, wondering why we don't have a :viciouscircle: smiley

9/3/09
Nearly 9 in 10 Americans say the country's still in a recession, according to a new national poll.

Eighty-seven percent of people questioned in a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Thursday morning say the nation's in a serious, moderate or mild recession, and nearly 7 in 10 say things are going badly in the country today.

"Economists may be speculating that the recession is over, but don't tell that to the American public," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

The CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll was conducted August 28-31, with 1,010 adult Americans questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

more...
http://www.cnn.com/2009/US/09/03/economy.poll.recession/index.html

When people say "recession," they mean the whole of the dip in the economy, from high to low and back again. People typically think of the recovery period as part of the recession. Economists refer to only the downward part. To them, the recession ends when it hits bottom. That's why you get people yelling, "There hasn't been any recovery!" whenever economists say the recession is over. Then the economists look puzzled and say, "Of course not. The recovery is just starting." And the people squint at the economists and accuse them of trying to have it both ways. "Well which is it, Mr. PhD? Is it over, or is it only half over?"

Even worse, economists base it solely on GDP. As soon as that turns upward, their "recession" ends. People look at jobs and layoffs more than GDP. "Recession's over? They just announced big layoffs at ACME Industries!"

To regular people, recession just means economic misery. And we're still in that.

and I agree with them.

You may recall I wanted to take some of the profits I made off the Fannie Mae speculative bubble and put it in a nice, safe, dividend earning electric utility company. Well, I found a list of 159 elctric utilities. Looked them all up, every damn one. Well, I didn't do much research on some. If their website didn't come up right away, I said, "Bah," and moved on. Many of them were subsidiaries of large holding companies. That simplified things a bit. Many paid less than 5% dividends. Well, my local electric company pays 6%. They had to do better than that to get a deeper look.

I finally chose Integrys (TEG), an electric and natural gas utility operating in the United States and Canada, with a lot of natural gas customers in Minnesota and Michigan (cold places in the winter). They have about 2 million customers and 5200 employees. The analysts' filed lukewarm reports on Itegrys. Yet it pays 8% dividends.

While looking at electric companies, I stumbled on a list of high dividend companies, some with the word "Energy" in their names. Turned out they were mostly oil and gas companies. Now, I dislike oil companies in general. I loathe and despise Exxon Mobil. But one of these companies, Cheniere Energy (CQP), caught my attention. It pays 20% dividends. Ridiculously high. Suspiciously high. They own and operate a Liquefied Natural Gas receiving terminal in Louisiana. Apparently this takes more than just a hose and a pump. They own LNG storage tanks and regasification facilities (something like a giant tea kettle). Reuters predicts they will "outperform" the market, which is better than they rated Itegrys. Still, I'm gonna consider Integrys my "safer" investment, and Cheniere as the more "aggressive" one. If these investments work as predicted, then I just bought a few hundred dollars of income.

As always, this is not a recommendation for anyone else to imitate. But if you like watching what stocks do (and why else did you go to a thread entitled Stock Market Watch?), feel free to find entertainment in my antics. I like to think my gambles are educated gambles, backed by at least token research, and the stock market is the one casino in which the odds are supposed to favor the players doing better than breakeven. So far, aside from the Bush years (Dow -25% in 8 years), my record has been pretty good. You may enjoy a good laugh at my expense if it all turns sour, too. I'm OK with that.

Gambling differs from speculation in that when gambling a person can lose everything, in speculation a person can pullout before losing everything: in theory. When speculation is ruled by huge gamblers, the speculator can now lose a huge amount instantly, just like gambling. Therefore, in todays corrupt markets there is little difference between gambling and speculating.

I've been trading for 20 years and guess what? Nobody gives a flying fck about my experience, they just want profit. Most people are greedy little slime balls with no conscience beyond what they think is socially required. They'll invest in torture, war, civilian killing, taking peoples homes from them, whatever. If you want to call those "antics" go ahead, I call it morally reprehensible.

Finally, I read this board to see who's getting arrested, caught, exposed, fined or bankrupted with the hope, yes "hope", that America will turn this criminal mess around and at least make an attempt to become a nation of laws again. You see the article the other day on Fannie, Freddie and AIG all being manipulated? How proud you must be to have been a part of that criminal mess.

According to my bathroom scale, I'm not little. (It doesn't gives me numbers anymore. It just wails, "Get off! Get off! For the love of God, you're crushing meeeee!")

Well, my investments ARE little. I might have been the one who posted that article about Fannie, Freddie, and AIG. It was an article like that that persuaded me to get out of Fannie Mae on 8/26. I don't see criminal behavior in the current speculative bubble, just irrationality. I suspect some analyst upgraded its rating to a "Buy," and a bunch of sheep followed that advice. In fact, I know the analysts upgraded it. When I bought in, none of their reports rated it higher than a "Hold," and when I sold, there were some who rated it a "Buy." It's interesting that I doubled my money doing the opposite of their advice.

I would like to see America renew its commitment to being a nation of laws, too. I'm old enough to remember when we used to say, "In America, no one is above the law"--said it and believed it. I haven't heard that since Ford pardoned Nixon.

You know, I would like to hear about some of your investing experience. After 20 years, you probably have some good stories. Myself, I started in 1981, and it was because of the Space Shuttle. Maybe some other time, I'll explain that convoluted logic.

They are guaranteed 11% by law in Florida.

When I get back on Tuesday, I joining a class-action lawsuit against them, over pre-construction surcharges for 2 nuclear plants that may never be built.

Pretty solid, but I found a few in the 7's. They made top ten, but not top five.

Sept. 3 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rose, snapping a four- day losing streak for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, as chain stores from Costco Wholesale Corp. to Gap Inc. reported sales that topped projections and Chinese equities rallied the most in six months.

Costco surged 8.6 percent after the largest U.S. warehouse club boosted overseas revenue. Gap added 7.6 percent on August sales that fell half as much as analysts’ estimated. Alcoa Inc. and Caterpillar Inc. led the Dow Jones Industrial Average higher following a 4.8 percent advance in the Shanghai Composite Index.

The S&P 500 climbed 0.9 percent to 1,003.24 at 4 p.m. in New York after tumbling 3.3 percent over the previous three days. The Dow average added 63.94 points, or 0.7 percent, to 9,344.61. More than four stocks rose for each that fell on the New York Stock Exchange. The MSCI World Index of stocks in 23 developed countries rose 0.5 percent.

“Corporate profits are going to continue to surprise investors on the upside,” said Hank Smith, who helps oversee $6 billion as chief investment officer of Haverford Trust Co. in Radnor, Pennsylvania. “On a fundamental basis, we don’t think the market has gotten ahead of itself.”

The S&P 500 halted its longest daily losing streak since May even as jobless claims topped forecasts and a report on service industries failed to bolster speculation that the economic recovery will be strong enough to justify a six-month rally in equities. The government is scheduled to release its monthly jobs report tomorrow and may say the unemployment rate climbed to 9.5 percent in August, the highest level since 1983.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601084&sid=a9jfp5mOPaeQ

so that Labor Day wouldn't be the beginning of the end.

Typical 3 PM Stick Save based on nothing, More Brainwashing Propaganda about the Jobs Numbers, Retail Sales.

This is like living in Hell.

A Dean Koontz Novel has less fiction in it than the Average News Program or Media Transmission.

I don't think Labor Day is the Beginning Of The End.

I'm Sticking with November.

We will see warning signs in September, and Red Flags in October.

I hope I am wrong, but The Storm Is Coming.

Like I said, If Magical Mystery Flu is rolled out as the new "Fear and Terror" Product for the fall, All Bets Are Off.

But regardless there will be a new Product Roll Out, like there was when the last Dictator was in his first year.

The Bill Of Goods this Country has been sold is about to reveal itself.

Many will wake up, many will be willfully blind, and Many will go along with it.

It might be a good time to read up on some history.

It's about to repeat again.

I really, REALLY Hope I'm wrong.

I really do.

But if I'm not.....

Strap In.

On Edit:

DO NOT BE SURPRISED if tomorrow is not a big up day, to end the week Flat for the markets if they can manage it, because since the Unemployment Numbers come out tomorrow, they might want to have another celebration at how well they are screwing the working (mostly non-working, these days) Public. Lately The Unemployment Reports have been congratulatory Party Days for Wall Street, so be looking for that.

The Numbers of course will be quite an amusing Stand-Up Routine, I'm sure.

Let's see how brazen they are this time.

More People are out of work than last month, indicating that the job market continues to slowly improve, another sign that the Recession ended last month, and probably never existed in the first place. Fed Chief Ben Bernanke spoke briefly with reporters this morning as he prepared to depart for the long Labor Day Weekend: "As long as the slowing deterioration in jobs continues with no signs of a significant employment rebound, I think it's safe to say we are out of the woods, and we should see the economy pick up briskly in the first quarter of 2010. Slowing the bleeding is a positive trend, and the fear we have right now is that by not allowing things to follow their natural course by interfering with too much job creation, we risk undermining the foundation for the Recovery that we are currently seeing develop." Even with Unemployment Rates reaching as high as 37%, The Fed Chief remained confident that as long as it happened at a slower pace, The Economy could be blazing hot by as soon as the start of the second quarter next year.

Source- Yahoo, AP

You think I'm joking.

Watch it happen.