STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday September 25

Source: DU

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday September 25, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Under Indictment = 2
Financial Sector Officials In Prison = 6

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 24, 2009

Dow... 9,707.44 -41.11 (-0.42%)
Nasdaq... 2,107.61 -23.81 (-1.12%)
S&P 500... 1,050.78 -10.09 (-0.95%)
Gold future... 998.90 -15.50 (-1.53%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.38 -0.04 (-1.14%)
30-Year Bond 4.17 -0.03 (-0.62%)

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

---

Handy Links - Market Data and News:
Economic Calendar    Marketwatch Data    Bloomberg Economic News    Yahoo! Finance
    Google Finance    LayoffDaily    Bank Tracker    Credit Union Tracker

Handy Links - Economic Blogs:
The Big Picture    Financial Sense    Calculated Risk    Naked Capitalism    Credit Writedowns
    Brad DeLong    Bonddad    Atrios    goldmansachs666

Handy Links - Government Issues:
LegitGov    Open Government    Earmark Database    USA spending.gov

Handy Links - Videos:
The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class    Charlie Rose talks with Roubini    Charlie Rose talks with Krugman    William Black: This Economic Disaster

---

This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: DU

For Lasting Benefit, Ride With Strict Rules
BY DANIELLE PARK

Many years of real-time market experience does not make one clairvoyant, sadly. It can however lend some valuable perspective. Call it realism, call it wisdom; some have it sooner, some come to it later, some just never will.

There is so much excitement today about the momentum in stock prices. Those looking to think clearly must take care. Six months ago our firm was one of few optimists. As markets hit 12 year lows over a 17 month decline, in February-March we were seeing some of the best valuations that we had seen in several years. Not that stocks were "cheap" or high yielding, but relative to several years of uber-expensive, stocks were starting to look relatively attractive.

Fast forward six months and market sentiment has changed 180 degrees. Risk assets around the world are exploding (once again) fuelled with the liquidity of "free" money from government intervention. We can see this pretty much everywhere that we look in the world. The Russian stock market is up 99% year to date, China was up more than 100% (although these markets are still down heavily from their cycle peak); all dramatic shock and awe. But this is where the plot thickens.

The gains off the March lows have not been fuelled by organic revenue and earnings expansion but rather by an expansion of the multiple buyers are willing to pay for anticipated future earnings. Experience tells us that eventually the present valuation imbalance that we are seeing today will be corrected either by an actual and dramatic increase in corporate revenue and earnings, or by a decrease in stock prices.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

08:30 Durable Orders Aug
Briefing.com 1.2%
Consensus 0.4%
Prior 5.1%

08:30 Durables, ex Transporation Aug
Briefing.com 0.7
Consensus 1.0%
Prior 1.1%

09:55 Mich Sentiment-Rev Sep
Briefing.com 71.2
Consensus 70.5
Prior 70.2

10:00 New Home Sales Aug
Briefing.com 425K
Consensus 440K
Prior 433K

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - New orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods fell in August and sales of new homes rose below expectations, according to government data on Friday that fanned fears that recovery from recession would be tepid.

The reports from the Commerce Department overshadowed a jump in consumer confidence index this month to its highest since January last year.

The Commerce Department said durable goods orders tumbled 2.4 percent, the largest decline since January, after rising 4.8 percent in July. That was well below market expectations for a 0.5 percent rise in August.

In another report the department said sales of newly built single-family homes rose 0.7 percent in August for a fifth straight month to a 429,000 unit annual pace, the highest since September last year. However, the increase was below market expectations for a 440,000 unit rate.

U.S. stocks fell on the data, which, coming on the heels of a report on Thursday that showed a surprise drop in existing home sales in August, serving as a reminder that recovery from the worst recession since the 1930s would be uneven.

Government bond prices rose on the news.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN2549791920090925

SINGAPORE – Oil prices hovered near $66 a barrel Friday in Asia after investor concerns about U.S. crude demand sparked a two-day plunge.

Benchmark crude for November delivery was up 52 cents at $66.41 a barrel by late afternoon Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On Thursday, the contract fell $3.08 to settle at $65.89, the lowest since July 29.

Oil fell $6.86 during Wednesday and Thursday after an unexpected increase in U.S. crude and gasoline supplies triggered doubts about consumer spending and the strength of the economic recovery.

.....

In other Nymex trading, gasoline for October delivery was steady at $1.64 a gallon, and heating oil held at $1.69 a gallon. Natural gas was up 2.5 cents to $3.98 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

NEW YORK – Investors pulled away from stocks after an unexpected drop in home sales and a slide in oil prices fanned worries about the pace of the economy's recovery.

Stocks fell for a second day Thursday after the National Association of Realtors said sales of existing homes dropped 2.7 percent in August after jumping 7.2 percent in July. Economists had expected sales would post their fifth straight monthly increase.

The market climbed in morning trading following a surprise drop in the number of people seeking unemployment benefits. The housing numbers upended that advance, however, and stocks never recovered. The Dow Jones industrial average ended with a loss of 41 points to bring its two-day drop to 122 points.

.....

Thursday's retreat came a day after investors looked past a more upbeat assessment of the economy from the Federal Reserve and worried about what will happen once the government starts to wind down its economic stimulus efforts.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090924/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/us_wall_street

Unexpected by whom? Haven't they read the unemployment figures, or the foreclosure figures?

(Reuters) – U.S. regulators say that the level of losses from syndicated loans facing banks and other financial institutions tripled to $53 billion in 2009, due to poor underwriting standards and the continuing weakness in economic conditions.

According to the Shared National Credit Program (SNC) 2009 Review, an annual inter-agency report released on Thursday, credit quality deteriorated to record levels with respect to large loans and loan commitments.

.....

According to the report, criticized assets rated 'special mention', 'substandard', 'doubtful' and 'loss', touched $642 billion, representing 22.3 percent of the SNC portfolio, compared with 13.4 percent a year ago.

.....

The volume of SNCs rated 'doubtful' and 'loss' in 2009 rose almost 14-fold to $110 billion, while non-accrual loans touched $172 billion, up from $22 billion in 2008.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090925/bs_nm/us_banks_us_loans

---

All these rumors of fair weather ahead, the passage of the economic storm, was just wishful thinking. It was merely the eye of the hurricane passing overhead.

FDIC: "Credit quality declined sharply" for Shared National Credits

Notes from the Fed:

A SNC is any loan and/or formal loan commitment, and any asset such as other real estate, stocks, notes, bonds and debentures taken as debts previously contracted, extended to borrowers by a supervised institution, its subsidiaries and affiliates. Further, a SNC must have an original amount that aggregates $20 million or more and either 1) is shared by three or more unaffiliated supervised institutions under a formal lending agreement or 2) a portion is sold to two or more unaffiliated supervised institutions with the purchasing institutions assuming their pro rata share of the credit risk.

Some key findings:

• Special mention assets, which exhibited potential weakness and could result in further deterioration if uncorrected, declined to $195 billion from $210 billion and represented 6.8 percent of the SNC portfolio, compared with 7.5 percent in 2008.

• The severity of criticism increased with the volume of SNCs classified as doubtful and loss rising to $110 billion, up from $8 billion in 2008. Loans in nonaccrual status also increased nearly eight times to $172 billion from $22 billion. Nonaccrual loans included $32 billion in credits classified as loss and $56 billion classified doubtful.
.....

A record $447 billion in assets were classified as substandard, doubtful, or a loss, almost triple the peak following the 2001 recession. As a percent of commitments, the current 15.5% of loans "classified" far exceeds the previous peak in 1991 of just under 10% of loans.

more at link....

:donut:
'substandard', 'doubtful' and 'loss', touched $642 billion, representing 22.3 percent of the SNC portfolio

Big numbers, esp the amount held by foreign investors. Bet they don't jump back into the market/shallowendofthepool again soon. :nuke:

PITTSBURGH (Reuters) – The U.S. Federal Reserve may have to raise interest rates from their currently ultra-low setting near zero before the need to take action becomes obvious, Fed Board Governor Kevin Warsh said on Thursday.

Warsh, in an op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal a day after the Fed left rates unchanged and declared the U.S. economic recovery under way, said the central bank was at "a critical transition period, of still unknown duration."

.....

"Policy makers should acknowledge the heightened costs of policy error. The stakes are high, in part, because the policy accommodation that requires timely removal as the economy rebounds is substantial," Warsh said.

Critics fear that massive increases in liquidity represented in the boost in the size of the Fed's balance sheet could spark inflation as growth picks up steam.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090925/bs_nm/us_usa_fed_warsh

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve decided to keep pumping $1.25 trillion of new money into the mortgage market to focus on rescuing the U.S. economy as the financial system revives and banks ask for less help.

The Fed is allowing some of the 10 support programs it created or expanded after the credit crisis began in August 2007 to expire or shrink. That caused the first decline in the amount of money the U.S. has committed on behalf of taxpayers to end the recession, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

...

The U.S. has lent, spent or guaranteed $11.6 trillion to bolster banks and fight the longest recession in 70 years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

That’s a 9.4 percent decline since March 31, when Bloomberg last calculated the total at $12.8 trillion.

The tally “ignores the fact that virtually all commitments are backed by assets,” Andrew S. Williams, a Treasury Department spokesman who had the same role at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York until earlier this year, said in an e- mail. “The Federal Reserve’s current ‘outlays’ are largely in the form of secured loans. The aggregate value of the collateral backing those loans exceeds the loan value. These are not ‘outlays.’”

Refused to Identify

Spokesmen Calvin A. Mitchell of the New York Fed and David Skidmore of the Fed in Washington declined to comment.

The Fed has refused to identify the collateral backing its loans. Bloomberg News parent Bloomberg LP, the New York-based company majority-owned by Mayor Michael Bloomberg, sued the central bank in November to force it to provide the information. U.S. District Judge Loretta A. Preska gave the Fed until Sept. 30 to appeal her decision requiring more disclosure about the financial institutions that have benefited.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Financials Index has risen 143 percent since its low on March 6, including a 179 percent increase in share price for JPMorgan Chase & Co. to $44.37 and a 142 percent jump for Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to $183.06.

Among the U.S. programs that have expired is the Treasury guarantee of money market mutual fund deposits, instituted a year ago to stem an investor run the week after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s collapse. The department said it collected $1.2 billion in fees from funds before the effort concluded on Sept. 18 and never paid out a claim.

...

The central bank said Sept. 24 it will reduce the Term Securities Lending Facility to $50 billion from $75 billion and the Term Auction Facility, once $900 billion, will shrink to $50 billion. Support for commercial paper, short-term loans that corporations and banks use to pay everyday expenses, has fallen to $1.2 trillion as the market fell from a one-year peak of $1.8 trillion in January.

...

“Because financial conditions have started to improve, Treasury has already begun the process of exiting from some emergency programs,” the TARP administrator, Herb Allison, told the Senate Banking Committee Sept. 24. “It will, however, be some time before all CPP participants have fully extinguished their obligations to the taxpayers.”

/Lots more detail at link: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601015&sid=aJwZIBMSGsek

WASHINGTON – A top White House economic adviser says the Obama administration's proposed overhaul of financial rules preserves the policy of "too big to fail," and could lead to future bailouts.

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker said Thursday that by designating some companies as critical to the broader financial system, the plans create an expectation that those firms enjoy government backing in tough times. That implies those financial companies "will be sheltered by access to a federal safety net," he said.

.....

"The safety net has been extended outside the banking system," Volcker said. "That's what I want to change." He said the administration's proposal to create a new system for winding down large nonbank companies would make that easier.

The administration should make it clearer that a "safety net" will apply only to traditional banks, not investment companies or others. Investors must understand that if a nonbank company fails, stockholders and bondholders' money would be at risk, he added, while endorsing other options for these companies, including forced mergers or liquidation.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090924/ap_on_bi_ge/us_financial_overhaul_volcker

What all this amounts to is an unintended and unanticipated extension of the official “safety net”, an arrangement designed decades ago to protect the stability of the commercial banking system. The obvious danger is that with the passage of time, risk-taking will be encouraged and efforts at prudential restraint will be resisted. Ultimately, the possibility of further crises – even greater crises – will increase.

–Paul Volcker

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker is testifying before the committee on Banking and Financial Services today at 9am.

His written statement advises against a return to ”business as usual,” and makes specific recommendations as to what to do to avoid another meltdown.

• Reaffirm the principle separating banking from commerce as our approach to financial regulation;

• Regulate Derivatives as a typical financial product;

• Encourage more prudent compensation practices;

• Close existing loopholes that inevitably weaken prudential safeguards;

• Register and establish reporting requirements for hedge funds and private equity;

.....

He also called for a new “resolution regime” for insolvent or failing non-bank institutions of potential systemic importance. Rather than toss trillions at these self-wounded entities, we should instead appoint a special “Conservator” to take control of a bank in clear danger of defaulting on its obligations.

More at The Big Picture

I want to make corporations small enough I can drag them into the bathroom and drown them in the tub.

(Had you wondering for a moment with that teaser, eh?)

and they stopped thinking of themselves as greater than sliced bread. A corporation had a useful purpose, and they should all revert to that purpose, and leave politics and global expansion to national entities.

in the US (by hopeless radicals, no doubt :sarcasm:)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Competition_law

What are you, some kind of sane person?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKVVkiMIkM0 (no, sorry, no audio there): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MT91YhDBmK4&feature=PlayList&p=F85128C6DF4F9EF9&index=25 aquí sí.

Or did he just repeal enforcement?

Tokyo - Japanese stocks closed lower Friday after the country's largest brokerage, Nomura Holdings Inc, said it was selling a record 511.3 billion yen (5.6 billion dollars) of its shares to fund an overseas expansion.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average lost 278.24 points, or 2.64 per cent, to end the week at 10,265.98.

The broader-based Topix index also fell 27.53 points, or 2.9 per cent, to 922.67.

http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/business/news/article_1503110.php/Tokyo-stocks-down-2-6-per-cent-on-Nomura-sales-Roundup

LONDON (Reuters) - Global stocks struggled near a 1-1/2 week low on Friday despite a pledge by the Group of 20 countries to keep emergency economic stimulus in place until a durable recovery is secured, helping underpin government bonds.

Weak U.S. housing data on Thursday and plans by world central banks to scale back infusions of U.S. dollars into their banking system kept investors worried.

"There are concerns about the sustainability of the economic upturn as it is only in its infancy," said Nick Stamenkovic, bond strategist at RIA in Edinburgh. "The fact that some of the short-term liquidity is being removed is to some extent maybe weighing on the equity market, which seems to be running out of steam, and that is clearly providing a more government bond supportive environment."

The MSCI all-country world stock index (^MIWD00000PUS - News) fell 0.5 percent to 284.81, having earlier plumbed 284.44 -- a low last seen on September 15.

The FTSEurofirst 300 index (^FTEU3 - News) of top European shares shed 0.4 percent with Germany's DAX (XETRA:^GDAXI - News) sliding 0.5 percent.

...

Despite an eight-week streak of outflows from safe haven money market funds being broken, equity funds took in $5.42 billion in the week to September 23, with emerging market equity funds having their biggest week of inflows since early June, fund tracker EPFR Global said in a note.

Emerging shares (^MSCIEF - News), which earlier this week hit a 12-month high, were down 0.2 percent, having also hit a 1-1/2 week low earlier.

/... http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stocks-pressured-despite-G20-rb-3215711055.html?x=0&.v=4

PITTSBURGH (Reuters) - The Group of 20 is set to become the premier coordinating body on global economic issues, reflecting a new world economic order in which emerging market countries like China are much more relevant, according to a draft communique.

Leaders of the G20 developed and developing nations also agreed to make the International Monetary Fund more representative by increasing the voting power of countries that have long been under-represented in the world financial body, said the draft G20 communique obtained by Reuters.

.....

Following are some of the implications of the decisions:

* The shifts reflect a recognition by the United States and Europe of a new global economic reality in which emerging market economies play a bigger role, especially in the aftermath of the global financial crisis that hurt developed economies more than developing ones.

* By making the G20 the new global economic coordinator, countries are committing to maintaining cooperation even after the global financial upheaval and recession recede. The G20 was upgraded from a ministerial to a leaders-level forum only last year as the crisis deepened.

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsMaps/idUSTRE58O1FB20090925

PITTSBURGH (Reuters) - The Group of 20 will take on the role of caretakers of the global economy, giving rising powers such as China more clout, and roll out tougher rules on bank capital by the end of 2012, a draft communique said on Friday.

Heading into the second day of a summit aimed at ensuring the world economy emerges from its worst recession in generations with better safeguards against another crisis, the G20 also vowed to keep emergency economic support in place until a recovery is secured, according to the draft obtained by Reuters.

"We will act to ensure that when growth returns jobs do too. said. "We will avoid any premature withdrawal of stimulus."

The document said G20 countries had a "responsibility to the community of nations to assure the overall health of the global economy" and pledged to try to secure next year a deal in long-running world trade talks.

The group, which accounts for 90 percent of the world's economic output, also agreed to rein in financial industry excesses that triggered the credit crisis two years ago, and to tighten rules on how much capital banks must have to absorb losses. The new rules aimed at improving the quality and amount of capital should be ready by the end of 2010 and will be phased in in the following two years, the draft said. It also tackled the contentious issue of bankers' pay schemes, blamed for fostering a high-risk corporate culture that led to heavy losses and taxpayer-funded bailouts. The document suggested linking pay to "long-term value creation, not excessive risk-taking." However, it did not mention direct monetary caps on pay as proposed by French President Nicolas Sarkozy and some other European Union leaders.

...

Emerging economies looked to be the surprise winners as the leaders sought to finalize agreements on an ambitious agenda that included building a more stable world economy, reforming bank regulations and tackling climate change. In another boost for countries such as China or India, the G20 unexpectedly moved close to a deal shifting more voting power at the International Monetary Fund to some developing countries, recognizing their growing economic power.

In return, as the draft communique suggested, the G20 won their commitment to do their part in rebalancing the world economy. That rebalancing act involves the debt-laden United States saving more and export powerhouse China consuming more.

...

After two years of financial turmoil, the global economy now appears to be recovering far faster than many economists had predicted, largely thanks to furious interest rate cuts, emergency central bank lending, and roughly $5 trillion in government stimulus money. But with unemployment high and banks still struggling to absorb heavy losses primarily from failing U.S. mortgage loans, the pressure is on the G20 to sustain the economic assistance and coordinate how and when the emergency stimulus is phased out.

"We designated the G20 to be the premier forum for our international economic cooperation," the draft communique said. The move means the G20 supplants the G7 and G8 -- institutions dominated by rich Western economies, which will now remain forums for discussing geopolitical issues, diplomats said.

...

The draft communique also showed leaders endorsed an agreement on phasing out subsidies for fossil fuels, a measure aimed at helping combat global warming, but with no fixed date for the change.

Many G20 governments, including countries such as China, India and Russia, give tax breaks and direct payments to companies that help them produce coal, oil and other fossil fuels that cause greenhouse gases blamed for global warming.

/... http://finance.yahoo.com/news/G20-takes-helm-of-world-rb-3779900587.html?x=0&.v=3

does this seem silly to anyone else?

Either it's going to be like the UN, perpetually deadlocked, or it's going to be a New World Order, run by the multinationals through their sockpuppet governments. I can't see this working for a person on the street.

Removing much of US clout (others should contribute more cash (edit: & arms); reform the veto system) that so often causes deadlock would maybe help?

But new members are added.

You know what? I'm leaning toward "Too Big to Fail" is a bad idea for governments as well as investment banks. If the G20 succeeds in taking over control of the world economy, what happens if the G20 steering committee falls under the spell of the Chicago School economists?

Once again...proof that we are all being screwed. I rest my case!

While many countries have vowed to emerge from the global recession greener and cleaner, not enough is being spent on environmental initiatives in national recovery packages. This is the conclusion of a UN assessment looking at how the environment might be an unlikely beneficiary of the global slow down.

China and South Korea are the biggest backers of clean-tech as a solution to the economic crisis, with significant investment planned for water infrastructure, energy efficiency and renewables. Over a third of China's recovery spending is being focused on environmental projects while South Korea is ploughing almost 80% of its multi-billion dollar stimulus package into energy efficiency in buildings and water and waste management.

...

According to the UN, other countries that have in part seized the economic crisis as an opportunity for a different development path include Australia, the United States, Japan, Germany, South Africa and France.

...

While many countries are moving in the right direction, UNEP and economists are warning that major pitfalls remain in terms of the overall size of the green component of the global stimulus package. This currently falls well short of the $750 billion, or one per cent of global GDP, that is recommended for reducing carbon dependency and seeding the process of transition.

/... http://www.edie.net/news/news_story.asp?id=17028&channel=0&title=Green+measures+part+of+global+economic+recovery

* Letter from the Green Economy Coalition to 3rd G-20 Summit 71 KB pdf

Gland, Switzerland: An environmental coalition made up of research organizations, private businesses, trade unions, and environmental organizations is calling on G20 nations to accelerate the transition to a green economy and to ensure a visionary global climate deal.

In open letter published today, The Green Economy Coalition, hosted by the International Institute for Environment and Development, warns that G20 nations are failing to match their rhetoric with action, are delaying the transition to sustainable development and are promoting climate change through their subsidies for fossil fuel production and consumption.

...

“We support the progress that has been made in stimulating a low carbon economy through investments in a range of initiatives such as improved rail transportation, water infrastructure, grid expansion and improved building efficiency,” the letter states. “However, in many cases there remain large gaps between government declarations and practice.”

“Many G20 members have not included sufficient green investments in their overall stimulus packages, and the effectiveness of the green stimulus risks being compromised by delays in the allocation of funds. At the end of the first half of 2009, only around 3% of committed green funds had been disbursed.”

Signatories include the heads of WWF International, UN Environment Programme’s (UNEP) Green Economy Initiative, Consumers International, International Trade Union Confederation, the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI), International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN), Global Reporting Initiative, Ecologic Institute, Trade Union Advisory Committee to the OECD, Bellagio Forum for Sustainable Development, IISD-Europe, the Inspire Foundation for Business and Society, and the Centre for Human Ecology.

The Green Economy Coalition focuses on the policy changes needed to transform the global economy into one that is clean, green and equitable.

/.. http://www.panda.org/wwf_news/news/?uNewsID=174661

No. Not forever. It's time for me to go to work.

Have a nice day, everyone.

:donut: :donut: :donut:

:hi:

on this job. Start my new one on Monday!

Might enjoy some Food & Wine Festival at Epcot this weekend. ;-)

Try to have some fun, too.

Will they let it fall some more today, or seek to pump it up again and "hold over the weekend"?

We shall see. Have a good day, Ozy :hi:

fluctuate.

(Apologies to J. P. Morgan. On second thought, JP, I'm glad you're dead.)

With reference to Dave’s Top 10 Reasons why the recession will last forever, here’s another set. I continue to believe that the S&P will end 2009 about where it began.

10. Exports are down by a quarter from their June 2008 peak

... see charts, explanation under each section. I'm leaving explanation 1. in place ...

9. Credit growth remains negative.

8. Weakness in existing home sales show that despite record low mortgage rates, screaming bargains in lower-priced homes, and tax breaks, the housing market continues to weaken.

7. The Fed’s Household Wealth Survey for the second quarter sounds impossibly optimistic:

6. Total consumer credit outstanding is still falling, and at the fastest rate since World War II.

5. Business are still reducing inventories, and at the fastest rate on record:

4. The Fed is caught between a rock and a hard place. Monetary stimulus remains out of control:

3. Dollar devaluation has helped about as much as it’s going to.

2. The effect of fiscal stimulus will come to an end: no more cash for clunkers, bailouts of bankrupt municipalities (by taking over their spending requirements), tax subsidies for mortgages, and so forth.

1. Barack Obama. By toying with a trade war with China in order to appease his organized-labor constituency, Obama has taken a giant step away from a prospective solution.

As Francesco Sisci and I wrote in Asia Times almost a year ago,

No recovery is possible unless American households can save, and they cannot save in an economic contraction when incomes spiral downwards. To save, Americans must sell goods and services to someone else, and a glance at the globe makes clear who that must be: nearly half the world’s population, and most of the world’s capacity for economic growth, is concentrated in China and the Pacific Littoral.

China’s economic problem is the inverse of America’s: China has achieved fast rates of growth at the expense of huge disparities between the prosperous coast and the backward interior, as well as excessive dependence on foreign markets. China’s policy response to the economic crisis is far more radical than Washington’s. Rather than attempting to patch up the situation and restore the status quo ante, China plans to spend nearly a fifth of its gross domestic product on an internal stimulus focused on infrastructure in its interior. Severe execution risk attends the Chinese proposal, and markets remain to be convinced.

China can reduce the execution risk of its great economic shift towards home consumption, and America can solve its savings problem, through a grand partnership. This partnership need not be exclusive to America and China, but it must be founded on America and China, two of the world’s largest economies. India and the other Asian economies should be encouraged to join this partnership. A great deal has been written about prospective conflict between China and the United States, but very little explanation is offered as to what issues might arise between China and the United States. China and America have far more to gain from cooperation than from conflict.

There just isn’t any way to square the circle within the US as such: households have lost too much wealth at the cusp of a gigantic retirement wave, so that demand for savings is virtually limitless. That’s one reason why bond yields remain so low (another is that the cheap dollar makes them attractive to foreign investors). Americans are locked into a vicious cycle: as their wealth collapses, they must save more; that reduces sales and output, and leads to unemployment; unemployment causes more home foreclosures and keeps the housing market weak; wealth continues to fall; returns to prospective retirement assets decline, forcing households to save more; and so on, ad infinitum, or at least as far as the eye can see.

The only way to break out is globally, and Obama is getting colder rather than hotter.

/... http://seekingalpha.com/article/163345-10-more-reasons-why-the-recession-will-last-forever

Maybe he'll get an new outlook (and can the GS crowd) for Xmas....one can only hope!

I hope so!!! Because in the good old days BEFORE Mega-Monopolies of today's corporations, when the 2 local gas stations had trade wars, we got much cheaper gas.

A good trade war is just what America needs. But really folks hasn't China dumped enough of their crap on us? Haven't enough firms gone out of business because of the illegal trade practices of the Chinese? Come on, China has been in a trade war with our manufacturing sector for decades, we just haven't bothered to report it.

And do we really need to sell to other countries? If we could just sell in the US, wouldn't that be a big enough market? If we closed all the doors in our American market and could make do with American manufacturers only, wouldn't that be enough profit and market for any business?

... would you then leave alone the Rest of the World to do business with each other as they see fit?

Gotta have that oil. And coffee. And neodymium. And heroin.

Main reserves are in Bolivia, Chile, and China.

We don't even have nickel for nickle hydride batteries.

No chromium for stainless steel.

We pretty much dug up and pumped out most of our economically viable resources during the last century.

that could produce resources, jobs, clean up the environment, all around goodness.

If something had value, it probably wouldn't have gone to the landfill.

The feasibility of mining landfills is really and energy problem. You need to supply energy to dig them up, deconstruct the stuff to tiny bits, separate materials mechanically, separate materials chemically, and transform them into useful materials. You also need all the equipment and chemical reagents to do this processing. Good luck.

and crack cocaine!

er, well, still more coal, still. And sheep.

Not much else. Unless it's "intelligent people".

Oh, and the "City of London", natch.

International protectionism would be a radical game-changer, all right.

and the seas have minerals--dissolved, but they are there.

Actually, aside from metals, we could live well on a purely solar economy--wood, wool, cotton, food, bone, stone, as people did for millennia.
England had mining, and I'm sure there's lots of metal rusting away in landfills.

Given that one can make plastics without petroleum, and fertilizer, and even fuel, if one wants to badly enough, a place that can feed itself can survive.

It is the nations that cannot/do not feed themselves that have real worries. There is no substitute for food, and one cannot do without for indefinite periods, nor share throughout the community.

As for exploiting oceanic resources... Yes, but carefully.

Umm... Oil billions beckon Falkland Islands .

(Who would have thunk it - and see more recent stories. Trouble is, those island and those waters, by all the historical tenets of international maritime and even colonial law, belong to Spain Argentina).

Edit: There is untold wealth out there among the asteroids, for a start, you know.

But we still are in need of sensible "household management" here at home, you know.

We are nobody without international rape trade.

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 76.716 Change -0.163 (-0.21%)

Euro Halts Two-Day Decline Despite Dovish ECB, British Pound Falters For Third Day

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Euro_Halts_Two_Day_Decline_Despite_1253877041973.html

The euro halted the two-day decline against the U.S. dollar after finding intraday support ahead of the weekly low however, comments from the European Central Bank looks to be weighing on the exchange rate as policy makers expect the region to face headwinds going into the following year. Meanwhile, the economic docket showed consumer confidence in Germany rose to a 16-year high in October as the GfK index advanced to 4.3 from a revised reading of 3.8 in the previous month, and the data encourages an improved outlook for the region as the economy emerges from the worst recession since the post-war period. However, as the Bundesbank anticipates economic activity to remain subdued going into the following year and projects unemployment to rise, fears of a protracted recovery may weigh on households as President Axel Weber holds a cautious outlook for Europe’s largest economy.

ECB Board member Yves Mersch said that the central bank will not implement an exit strategy until “functioning of the interbank market has been secured,” and warned that an early exit could lead to a double-dip recession as he sees a risk for lower growth potential in the near future. At the same time, Mr. Mersch expects to see a “moderate recovery” in 2010 as Germany and France emerge from the recession, but went onto say that policy makers cannot rule out the risk of a credit crunch as the financial system remains fragile. Moreover, the council member said international coordination will be needed to implement a successful exit strategy, and pledged to “act when it’s time to do so.” The comments suggests the ECB will maintain its current policy over the near-term in order to encourage a sustainable recovery, and is likely to hold a dovish outlook for inflation as policy makers anticipate economic activity to remain at low levels going into the following year.

The British pound weakened against the greenback for the third day to reach a low of 1.5915, and the pair may continue to trend lower over the following week as BoE Governor Mervyn King supports a lower exchange rate. However, as British pound crosses remain oversold, we may see the attempt to push higher going into the US trade however, as investors continue to scale back long-term expectations for higher interest rates in the UK, the pound-dollar may continue to retrace the advance from the March low over the coming month. Meanwhile, total business investments in the U.K. slipped 10.2% in the second quarter amid an initial forecast for a 10.4% decline, while the annualized rate tumbled 21.8% from the previous year, and businesses may continue to scale back on spending as the outlook for future growth remains highly uncertain.

The greenback weakened against most of its major counterparts during the overnight session, with the USD/JPY slipping to a fresh monthly low of 89.96 however, as the economic docket is expected to reinforce an improved outlook for future growth, we may see the dollar bounce back during the North American trade. Demands for US durable goods are expected to increase 0.4% from July, while new home sales are projected to increase for the fifth consecutive month in August, and the data is likely to spur demands for the reserve currency as growth prospects improve. At the same time, the final U. of Michigan confidence reading is expected to rise to 70.5 from an initial forecast of 70.2, while Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is scheduled to speak in from of the Congressional Black Caucus at 13:00 GMT, and comments from the central bank head may move the markets as investors weigh the outlook for future policy.

...more...

Traders Await a Coordinated G-20 Exit Strategy, but are Officials Already Reining in Stimulus?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/Traders_Await_a_Coordinated_G_20_1253844766722.html

Risk appetite has advanced for yet another week and in the process we have seen new highs set by EURUSD and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. However, with the G-20 meeting underway, we are in the midst of a very important transition. Though we are still a long way from a complete withdrawal, the world’s governments are already removing their financial support from the market. This is a critical and risky step in returning to the conditions that were ‘normal’ prior to the worst onset of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Now, we will see whether risk appetite is in fact recovering or if the temporary guarantees and liquidity buffers provided a false sense of security that will come crashing down. Taking a snap shot of current market levels, optimism is still firmly planted. For the currency market, carry interest has risen to highs not seen the capital markets were in the middle of the sharpest free fall in modern history (October 10th). The building interest in carry is finding consistent support from rising yields and tempered risk. While there is a considerable possibility of a temporary market correction (or trend change), the fear of another systemic seizure has vanished. Naturally, corporate default premiums are less than a third of what they were during the height of last year’s panic and the demands for return on speculative assets over risk free is at its lowest since before the Lehman Brothers’ collapse. At the same time, diminished risk means little without the potential for income. Benchmark rates are still extraordinarily low; and yields on speculative assets will be tempered until the foundation is lifted. Yet, in the meantime, there are sources for income – like funding carry positions with dollars.

The US dollar has quickly become one of the most popular currencies in carry trade circles – though not for its positive attributes. In recent weeks, the benchmark market rate (the three-month Libor) for the US has consistently edged to new record lows. This is not unusual as yields on similar products in other financial centers around the world has done the same. What is notable though is the fact that the US rate is now at a discount to nearly every one of them – including its Swiss and Japanese counterparts. This positions the dollar as the world’s most attractive funding currency all while carry interest is building momentum. For now, this provides unique opportunities for stable pairs like EURUSD and AUDUSD; but can these conditions last? Certainly, the dollar’s role as a funding currency will not likely last for long. While rates are low now and Fed Chairman Bernanke has vowed to keep them that way well-into 2010; the draw of American assets and its deep markets will eventually draw lending rates higher and fortify the currency. But, the more important consideration is how will risk appetite as a whole perform going forward. In the next few months, there will be a major test in the conviction of investors’ optimism as governments start to implement exit strategies for the trillions of dollars of support that is still propping up the markets. Many of the industrialized powers have already started the process. Just today, the Fed announced it was further reducing some of its emergency lending programs (TAF and TSLF); and the German Federal Finance Agency cuts its proposed debt lending through the end of the year. These changes are generally ignored; but they represent serious progress towards a true withdrawal. Should the G-20 offer a coordinated time frame, it would make the transition more of a reality for the all involved.

...more...

(Nice drops. Time for the day of the week to be on the title. Must. not. have. caiparinhas. ... often.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,504,209,459,912.53 + 4,309,514,321,553.90
DOWN 186,100,874.04 + DOWN 5,719,296,461.81

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.76, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,522,101 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 08/24/2009 13:24 -> 307,261,605
Currently, each of these Americans owe $38,415.85.
A family of three owes $115,247.56. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 33 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 4,293,890,405.80.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,148,852,964.25.
The average for the last 33 days would be 2,862,593,603.86.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 169 reports in 246 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 6.98B$ per report, 4.82B$/day so far.
There were 244 reports in 358 days of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.00B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,215 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.5 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
09/23/2009 11,813,723,781,466.43 BHO (UP 1,186,846,732,553.35 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,788,998,884,554.00 so far this fiscal year, broken down below:
Borrowed in FY2009: 0,602,152,152,000.59 in part from time during Bush reign.
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,186,846,732,553.35 in part since Obama takes over.


LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
09/02/2009 +000,313,556,741.81 ------------********
09/03/2009 -005,471,580,596.27 --
09/04/2009 +000,000,664,126.38 ------------*****
09/08/2009 -000,191,031,319.46 --- Tue
09/09/2009 +000,137,837,081.44 ------------********
09/10/2009 +012,326,876,265.82 ------------**********
09/11/2009 +000,017,033,887.43 ------------*******
09/14/2009 -000,193,915,837.32 --- Mon
09/15/2009 +034,695,222,864.03 ------------**********
09/16/2009 +000,121,771,969.62 ------------********
09/17/2009 -017,941,949,432.55 -
09/18/2009 -000,312,998,363.37 ---
09/21/2009 -000,319,092,626.95 --- Mon
09/22/2009 -000,005,688,069.16 -----
09/23/2009 -000,186,100,874.04 ---

22,990,605,817.41 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4074898&mesg_id=4075754

(Big drop before end of fourth quarter, which will be fiscal year end, Sep 30: Wed to be reported on Thursday. Last 15 days of borrowing goes negative meaning a lower public debt. Fiscal year report adds histogram of yearly borrowing showing each president's, ahem, contribution to the debt.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,460,692,650,285.88 + 4,309,987,165,520.25
DOWN 43,516,809,626.65 + UP 472,843,966.35

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.75, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,535,901 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 09/27/2009 07:13 -> 307,558,299
Currently, each of these Americans owe $38,274.16.
A family of three owes $114,822.49. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 2,346,313,179.10.
The average for the last 30 days would be 1,720,629,664.68.
The average for the last 31 days would be 1,665,125,481.95.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 170 reports in 247 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 6.69B$ per report, 4.63B$/day so far.
There were 245 reports in 359 days of FY2009 averaging 7.13B$ per report, 4.86B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,214 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.4 and 17.7T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
09/24/2009 11,770,679,815,806.13 BHO (UP 1,143,802,766,893.05 so far since Obama took office.)

THIS SECTION WILL GO AWAY IN A DAY AND NEW IMPROVED SECTION BELOW WILL STAY.
Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,745,954,918,893.70 so far this fiscal year, broken down below:
Borrowed in FY2009: 0,602,152,152,000.59 in part from time during Bush reign.
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,143,802,766,893.05 in part since Obama takes over.

Fiscal year borrowing, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B, breakout on next two lines:
01-WJC 0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01GWB 0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 1,745,954,918,893.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O, breakout on next two lines:
09GWB 0,602,152,152,000.59 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 34% of FY-Debt
09-BHO 1,143,802,766,893.05 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 66% of FY-Debt
FY2010 0,000,000,000,000.00 ------------BHO


LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
09/03/2009 -005,471,580,596.27 --
09/04/2009 +000,000,664,126.38 ------------*****
09/08/2009 -000,191,031,319.46 --- Tue
09/09/2009 +000,137,837,081.44 ------------********
09/10/2009 +012,326,876,265.82 ------------**********
09/11/2009 +000,017,033,887.43 ------------*******
09/14/2009 -000,193,915,837.32 --- Mon
09/15/2009 +034,695,222,864.03 ------------**********
09/16/2009 +000,121,771,969.62 ------------********
09/17/2009 -017,941,949,432.55 -
09/18/2009 -000,312,998,363.37 ---
09/21/2009 -000,319,092,626.95 --- Mon
09/22/2009 -000,005,688,069.16 -----
09/23/2009 -000,186,100,874.04 ---
09/24/2009 -043,516,809,626.65 -

-20,839,760,551.05 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4076422&mesg_id=4076535

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - New orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods fell unexpectedly in August, dropping by their biggest margin in seven months, following a plunge in commercial aircraft orders, the government reported on Friday.

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE58O2TF20090925

At some point they have got to figure out that people are not going to continue to go underwater to buy stuff they don't really need. And if they do need it, there is a ton of real good second hand products on the market.

This could also be in reaction to the loan shark rates that credit card issuers are trying to get away with.

Don't 'analysts' use any math?

Guess they don't read Karl Denninger...'Look at the math, the math is never wrong'


edit to add Denninger's posting for today

9/25/09 But I Thought The Economy Was Improving?

Shipments and new orders were also down.

But the worst news in the report was found in the non-defense new order series which decreased 7.1% in August, which is an absolute collapse.

Remember, we've heard for the entirety of the last two months that the economy is turning around, brighter skies are visible and there is a "clear bottom" in the economy.

Well, that's a lie. How do you get a near-depression-level collapse in new orders if in fact the economy is turning around and an inventory rebuilding cycle is beginning?

You don't. You can't build inventory without orders and there are no orders.

more...
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1466-But-I-Thought-The-Economy-Was-Improving.html




edit to add tics around 'analysts'

How could an outfit like CNBC stay in business for so long, after being consistently wrong.

Because they sell advertising for the same companies that are trying to siphon your money. News? that's some stuff you make up to fit in between the ads.

Plenty of people still listen to them. Green shoots, for everyone!

:puke:

... Except that, still, sometimes something close to the "real news" still gets sneaked through (dependending on the outlets you monitor, the "West's" need to attempt to maintain that myth of "cultural superiority)...?

Jesus. Were I to find time, the explanations I could give (in English) about the lies that rain on Spain)... For example.


Edit: Top newz today, for example (with a grain of truth, it seems even to my eye), you'll be aware (and see DU earlier):

Iran accused of covert nuclear fuel plant

Home
Business & Finance
Markets
Deals
Small Business
Green Business
Industries
Stocks
Currencies
News
US
Politics
International
Technology
Entertainment
Oddly Enough
Sports
Video
Pictures
Blogs
Click Here
Do More With Reuters
RSSRSS Feed
Widgets
Mobile
Podcasts
Newsletters
Your View
Make Reuters My Homepage
Partner Services
CareerBuilder
Affiliate Network
Professional Products
Support (Customer Zone)
Reuters Media
Financial Products
About Thomson Reuters
People attend a demonstration against Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's appearance at the United Nations outside its 64th General Assembly in New York September 24, 2009. REUTERS/Patrick Andrade
Iran accused of covert nuclear fuel plant 10:37am ET

President Obama sharpens a standoff with Iran, calling the country's activities "a direct challenge" and demanding that Tehran comply with rules on nuclear nonproliferation. Full Article | Video

/... http://www.reuters.com/


... Edit to add soundtrack: Dylan: Ballad of a Thin Man (Highway 61/No Direction Home): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZFYlhw3g4P8 ...

I missed the non-defense number...:nuke: That's going to leave a scar.

Perhaps a better term for the idiots that can't do the math is anal-ists

good one!

I was trying to point out if the 'anal-ists' used math, they wouldn't be wrong! Since Denninger is 'The math is never wrong' guy, he's clearly not an anal-ist.

or analrapist.

:rofl:

At its creation, a 1997 Bentley Continental R was one of the most powerful and exclusive cars in the world, with every hand-built copy from the English countryside valued at $300,000 and beyond.

A few weeks back, the owner of one such Continental R decided it wasn’t worth more than $4,500, had its engine destroyed and shipped it to a junkyard with the rest of America’s clunkers.

. . .

According to new government data, the rebates of $3,500 or $4,500 were enough to doom the Continental and a ’97 Aston Martin DB7 Volante that once had a sticker price of $135,000 to the crusher.

And 37 people decided to clunk models that were less than a year old.

. . .

Some enthusiasts would have paid many thousands of dollars for the rare 1987 Buick GNX destroyed under the program; only 547 were built. The nation’s supply of used Chevrolet Corvettes was thinned by 131, including 34 convertibles, and the program also liberated 22 Americans from the burden of owning a Peugeot.

The 2008 model year vehicles deemed clunkers ranged from a Scion xD to 10 Mercury Grand Marquis sedans to two copies of special edition F-150 pickups, sporting 450-hp V8s and Chip Foose-designed paint jobs.

http://www.freep.com/article/20090923/BUSINESS01/90923004/1322/Exotic-clunkers-also-fueled-recent-program


Additional facts


Among the list of unusual clunkers under the federal cash-for-clunkers program:


1997 Aston Martin DB7 Volante:


1988 Aurora Cars Ltd. (Shelby cobra replica)


1992 BMW 850i


1987 Buick GNX 1987


1987 Excalibur Autos Phaeton


1990 Laforza


1985 Maserati Quattroporte


1999 Mercedes C43 AMG


1992 GMC Typhoon


1997 Rolls-Royce Continental R


2006 Roush Stage 3 F-150

:donut: and lurkers. I have been absent this week from posting but it has been a strange week. It started Monday, an hour into school. I was starting to take information from a child for an emergency CPS report. That was unusual enough, but then I got an emergency call to go to an upstairs class room, a student had passed out.

When I got into class there was a teacher bending over him. She identified herself as a CPR instructor-I am too. Great I thought-this should be a piece of cake. Then she said-he has a faint pulse and barely breathing. Now this is a new school and I haven't gotten all my supplies in. I know there are no CPR masks and I am thinking OH SHIT. Then I remember I have one on my key ring. I always tell folks I am good at pulling things out of my butt(thinking extemporaneously), but this gave it new meaning. So I whip out the mask put, it on and begin rescue breathing. He breathes for a while and then starts shutting down. I keep repeating this and check for obstructions between breaths. I am asking about 911 and getting info. I have no history about this kid. I start rescue breathing again. This time the flimsy mask starts moving and the plastic film covers MY nostrils so I am having trouble breathing. I stop ever so often to ask the progress of the first response team, catch MY breathe and reposition my mask. At one point, he jerks and it feels like a seizure. I ask again about 911 and I am looking at this kids eyes to see if he is seizing. My partner said she was having problems opening his mouth. I tell her there is enough space but I will try the nose if his jaw locks any more. I am giving several more breaths with my hand over his chest to feel any movement. He suddenly gives one more shudder and I am thinking, this is it he is going into cardiac arrest. I pop up, pull my mask up just as the door opened up and the first responders pour in.

He is in respiratory arrest I managed to get out. Now normally the ask 21 questions but this time the guy goes over there and immediately intubates the student. They attached the EKG and A pulse Ox to the kid. As he gets more Oxygen, his pulse Ox reading improves and his EKG gets better. They get the information and all his sign look good. His eyes are still open but they don't look as set as they did.

Later as I was talking with the Principal, I wondered why the intubated him so quickly. You were the colour of your scubs (they were dark purple). If you were working on him and you were that colour, they figured he must be in worse shape. So that was the running joke this week-What colour was the Nurse wearing.

After that, I still had to go back and take that emergency CPS report. CPS did not take the child during school so a bunch of us had to stay til they arrived-like 6:45 at night.

I have felt so whupped all this week, but the principal has been so nice. She ordered me to leave the campus on our early dismissal days for "off campus" duties until otherwise notified ;) I think I am fitting in very nicely. I never thought of CPR as being traumatic, but I have been having Nursemares (our version of nightmares) all this week. We have a 3 day weekend this week so I will be helping my friend spruce up the church grounds. That should be good for what ails me.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears. And as the Sarge on Hill Street Blues always use to say 'Be careful out there'.

Thank you for being there.

Wow.

... And your bonus is how much (on each little life improved/saved)?

(Don't answer that).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1T_IqSJGjkE

treating me like a professional and giving me a little time off now and again is just dandy. As far as rewarding...It's like peeing in a wet suit-you get a warm feeling all over and no one notices.

I can't access you tube at school so I'll check it out at home.

(Take your time with the youtue...).

:big kiss:

seizure disorder versus drug overdose versus insulin shock.

I hope the kiddo is OK, that he didn't fry too many brain cells from anoxia.

You sure know how to start the school year with a bang.

they said he had low blood sugar in the ER, but honestly I have seen low BS in ICU and never saw someone go into respiratory arrest. My CPR partner is a diabetic and SHE had trouble believing that too. When I was rescue breathing, I kept hearing a gurgling. I did sweeps and checks but couldn't see anything but my partner said she saw mucous. The one time I heard of this happening, the child was an undiagnosed asthmatic. I tend to think this may be the same thing. I think the intubation helped. He was a pulse Ox of 68 when they first took it but jumped up to the 70's as he was intubated before they hooked up the O2.

But all that is mute. Kid is doing well with no long term damage. Nurses, Docs, and First Responders code the longest for kids, policemen, and firefighters. You hate to lose those folks. esp kids.

But then, you know that ;)

My wife hopes to invest maybe next week or the week after. Personally, I wouldn't want to rush into an IPO investment on the first day. Trying to time a trade within a single day seems like slicing the salami a little too thin for me. It's gambling on the buzz. A lot of those first day investors won't stick around for the long haul. After a few quarters of no profits, the company may not look so good to the short-attention-span crowd.

Besides, the reason my wife and you and I want to invest in it is we think batteries for cars will be a growth industry in the coming years. The Chevy Volt and Ford Focus EV are still in the prototype stage. Pure electrics and plug-in hybrids won't make up a very big market for 4 or 5 years.

Plenty of time, plenty of time.

(Disclaimer: This is opinion, not a recommendation. Invest at your own risk. If you invest on my advice and it goes bad, all you get is laughed at. "You screwed up. You trusted us.")

By Rick Pearson

Even if newly public battery maker A123 Systems(AONE Quote) soars in the aftermarket, don't feel too bad about being left out of the IPO party, because there are much smarter ways to play the lithium-ion battery market. A123 Systems priced its $378 million IPO Wednesday night, selling 28.1 million shares at $13.50 each, and the stock began trading Thursday. It closed at $20.29, up $6.79 for a 50.3% gain. Shares were down 10 cents after hours. The company increased the deal size by almost 10% even after raising the offering price by 50% from the initially indicated range. Like China Bak Battery (CBAK Quote), A123 is a money-losing company trading on an excessively high valuation.

Profitable alternatives such as Advanced Battery Technologies(ABAT Quote), China Sun Group(CSGH Quote), Hong Kong Highpower Technology(HPJ Quote) and China Digital Communication Group(CMTP Quote) all make for a better fundamental investment.

In evaluating this IPO, I am a very biased investor because I refuse to invest in money-losing companies. When a company is being well received by investors because its "losses are declining," I don't feel too bad about not being part of the IPO party. A123 does have an impressive client list, including Chrysler and Black & Decker(BDK Quote). However, A123 has generated only $168 million in revenue since being founded in 2001. On revenue of $168 million, the company has lost $146 million since founding. I repeat, on revenue of $168 million since 2001, the company has lost $146 million.

more at: http://www.thestreet.com/story/10602939/1/a123-systems-soars-on-ipo-but-why.html
_______________________

Another article said the lithium-ion battery market for automotive application is estimated at only $31.9 million (with an m) for 2009. They expect it to increase to $21.8 billion (with a b) by 2015 and $74.1 billion by 2020. http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10603504/1/a123-systems-a-matter-of-demand.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

I don't expect them to start turning a good profit for a few years. With the economy where it's at now, it may be even longer.

I think they have the right idea, but don't have the manufacturing capability...yet.

Other than that, I'm avoiding all stocks like the plague.

Sentiment rose to a revised 73.5 from a reading of 70.2 in early September, coming in well above the August reading of 65.7.

Sentiment is the highest level since early 2008.

On the one hand, researchers said consumers now believe the recession has ended. But on the other, consumers complained about the state of their household finances.

Indeed, a record number of consumers reported income declines in September.

Both the current conditions and expectations readings jumped in September, the survey found.


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumers-upbeat-decide-recession-over-survey-2009-09-25

Because if their is a hint of Truth in that number, that's what it's become.

The Propaganda has worked.

The Zombification of America is just about complete, I suppose.

Shame The Recession really isn't over, the problems and issues that caused the Crisis in the first place have not been addressed, and The Criminals who caused the Crisis are still running things.

Oh, well, this Cake sure does taste good!

It's like this . . . A herd of buffalo can only move as fast as the slowest buffalo. And when the herd is hunted, it is the slowest and weakest ones at the back that are killed first. This natural selection is good for the herd as a whole, because the general speed and health of the whole group keeps improving by the regular killing of the weakest members. In much the same way, the human brain can only operate as fast as the slowest brain cells. Now, as we know, excessive intake of alcohol kills brain cells. But naturally, it attacks the slowest and weakest brain cells first. In this way, regular consumption of beer eliminates the weaker brain cells, making the brain a faster and more efficient machine. And that, is why you always feel smarter after a few beers.'

because Dubya just shoots down that whole natural selection theory you got going there. No wonder we are in a world of hurt.

Leaving behind the half-fast cells. If nothing else, Dubya adds weight to the theory.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qSzU4zP74ng

(Recently, this island's so full of it, that trade's almost totally displaced the Moroccan Marijauna trade). The kids are fucked-up. Many parents too, as far as I can see.

Bad deal all round. :(

Sept. 23 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. budget deficits will continue to pile up in the next decade, eventually reaching an unsustainable level that may result in an economic collapse, according to Richard Duncan, author of “The Dollar Crisis.”

The U.S. has little chance of resolving its deteriorating financial position because the manufacturing industry continues to shrink, leaving the nation with few goods to export, said Duncan, now at Singapore-based Blackhorse Asset Management.

In “The Dollar Crisis,” first published in 2003, Duncan argued that persistent current account deficits by the U.S. were creating an unsustainable boom in global credit that was destined to break down, resulting in a worldwide recession.

“The bad news is at the end of a 10-year period we’re still not going to have fixed the problem,” Duncan said in an interview in Hong Kong yesterday. “Eventually it will lead to high rates of inflation well down the line and really destabilize things to the point where there may be irreparable damage. A kind of ‘Fall of Rome’ scenario.”

The federal budget deficit will total $1.6 trillion this year, while combined shortfalls are forecast to total $9.05 trillion in the next 10 years, according to projections from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.

The U.S. has run a current account deficit every year since 1982 except one, with a peak of $788 billion in 2006. Foreign purchases of U.S. debt has propped up the dollar and allowed a credit-fueled spending boom by the nation’s consumers, according to Duncan.

Falling Wages

U.S. workers are now likely to face declining wages and that may create a political backlash against free-trade policies, he said. The nation’s jobless rate jumped to a 26-year high of 9.7 percent in August, while wages logged a 2.6 percent increase from the previous year.

“As unemployment remains above 10 percent well into the foreseeable future, it won’t be long before Americans start voting for protectionism,” Duncan said. “That’s going to be bad because protectionism will mean world trade will diminish and will overall reduce global prosperity.”

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aJ6jnKWHrQgI