New York Fed's Manufacturing Index Surges to 34.6, Highest Since Mid-2004

Source: BLOOMBERG

By Bob Willis

Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Manufacturing in the New York region expanded in October for a third straight month, reinforcing signs that factories are helping pull the economy out of the worst recession in seven decades.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s general economic index soared to 34.6, the highest since mid-2004, from 18.9 in September, the bank said today, marking the first time the measure has shown expansion for at least three months since a period ending in January 2008. Readings above zero for the Empire State index signal manufacturing is growing.

Government stimulus measures such as highway repairs and an auto trade-in program, record inventory cutbacks that set the stage for renewed production and a revival in overseas demand are helping factories expand again. Stabilization in manufacturing is one reason economists estimate that growth resumed last quarter.

“The recovery is picking up steam here, at least in the New York area,” said Tim Quinlan, an economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina. “It looks like manufacturing workers are being called back, and that means higher demand for production.”

Economists forecast the Empire manufacturing gauge would drop to 17.3, according to the median of 50 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Projections ranged from 12 to 22.1.

Read more: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aWeZ2LklA00g

So that is:
Industrial output: up for 6 months
Home sales: up for 6 months
Home prices: up for 3 months
Consumer Spending: up for 1 month (even after C4C ended)
GDP: likely turned positive in Aug or Sep

and now...
Manufacturing output: up for 3 months

Virtually every indicator shows a recovery from the bottom but some want the economy to fail so bad they refuse to see it.

The only other 3 early indicators I would like to see improve are:
* consumer confidence (will accelerate recovery as consumers spend even a little more)
* hours worked (employers tend to raise overtime before hiring so hours worked tends to rise before unemployment peaks)

Jobs?
My guess 9-12 months from now before unemployment peaks. That would be normal when you look at other recessions.

the factories closed a long time ago. are they talking about union wage jobs, or low wage minimum wage jobs, I wonder? where are these jobs? I wish there were more details.

'We have invested heavily in the software area and improved the performance of the services area,” says the article.

service jobs eh?

jobs should pick up soon. Hopefully

He is an industrial/commercial journeyman electrician. There is not even anything out of state. None of the travelers are finding anything. Plenty of locals with up to 400 on Book 1.

There was some talk of there being some work down South-- I think in Georgia, however their rate is very low and there is no per diem when these guys travel so the expenses are high; esp. when there is no overtime.

Where are the green energy jobs? The energy plants that are supposed to be built? My dh says that in one class he's taking at his union hall they said the president plans on using prison labor for building the solar farms? Any truth to this?