STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday February 19

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday February 19, 2010

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Name(s): David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON February 18, 2010

Dow... 10,392.90 +83.66 (+0.81%)
Nasdaq... 2,241.71 +15.42 (+0.69%)
S&P 500... 1,106.75 +7.24 (+0.66%)
Gold future... 1,119 -1.10 (-0.10%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.80 +0.07 (+1.82%)
30-Year Bond 4.73 +0.03 (+0.64%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

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Read more: du

08:30 CPI Jan
Briefing.com 0.2%
Consensus 0.3%
Prior 0.1%

08:30 Core CPI Jan
Briefing.com 0.1%
Consensus 0.1%
Prior 0.1%

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

8:30a Decline in U.S. core CPI is first since 1982

8:30a U.S. CPI up 2.6% in past year, core up 1.6%

8:30a U.S. Jan. shelter prices fall 0.5%

8:30a U.S. Jan. energy prices rise 2.8%

8:30a U.S. Jan. core CPI falls 0.1% vs. up 0.1% expected

8:30a U.S. Jan. CPI up 0.2% vs. 0.3% expected

It appears that businesses are not able to pass along higher costs to the consumer.

SINGAPORE – Oil prices fell below $78 a barrel Friday in Asia after the U.S. Federal Reserve's unexpected hike to interest rates for emergency loans to banks boosted the dollar, making commodities less attractive to investors. ...

The Federal Reserve said late Thursday it will bump up the so-called "discount" lending rate by one-quarter point to 0.75 percent effective Friday. The surprise move, which doesn't affect consumer lending rates, helped weaken the euro to $1.3466 on Friday from $1.3529 the previous day.

A stronger dollar makes commodities priced in the U.S. currency more expensive for investors with non-dollar funds. A weakening dollar helped fuel the run-up of the oil price to $147 a barrel in July 2008. ....

In other Nymex trading in March contracts, heating oil fell 2.75 cents to $2.024 a gallon, and gasoline dropped 3.19 cents to $2.037 a gallon. Natural gas eased 1 cent to $5.16 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

...
The administration's stance could set the stage for a political showdown, with Democrats struggling to enact the president's top domestic priority and Republicans trying to block what many conservatives see as government overreach.

A senior administration official said Democratic congressional leaders have nearly finished efforts to reconcile two health bills, which the House and Senate passed separately last year with practically no Republican help. Obama will use their legislation to expand coverage to some 30 million and require most Americans to carry insurance as the basis for a proposal that the White House will post online by Monday, three days before the Feb. 25 summit, said the official. ....

If next week's meeting does not break the logjam, congressional Democrats will face a tough choice. They can pass a highly diluted health care bill or nothing at all, which would send them into the November elections with a high-profile failure despite their control of Congress and the White House.

Or they can use an assertive and contentious tactic, known as reconciliation, to pass a far-reaching health care bill in the Senate without having to face GOP delaying tactics. Democrats lost their ability to block filibusters when Massachusetts Republican Scott Brown won a Senate seat last month.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100219/ap_on_bi_ge/us_health_care_overhaul

This comes from Economist's View. I have excerpted far less than they did when referencing this column:



EV link

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. Federal Reserve on Thursday made its first interest rate move since December 2008, hiking an emergency lending rate it charges banks, but insisted borrowing costs would not rise for consumers or companies.

The Fed cast its decision to raise the discount rate to 0.75 percent from 0.5 percent as a response to improved financial market conditions that warrant less of a helping hand from the U.S. central bank.

It went to pains to draw a distinction between the discount rate and the federal funds interbank lending rate, its main monetary policy tool, which remains unchanged near zero percent to help sustain a fragile U.S. economic recovery. ...

Despite the Fed's effort to distinguish its programs to foster market liquidity from monetary policy, financial markets viewed the announcement as presaging an eventual policy shift.

U.S. stock futures dropped sharply and government bond prices fell after the announcement, with the yield on policy-sensitive two-year notes touching their highest level since late January. The U.S. dollar also rose, hitting a nine-month high against he euro and a one-month high against the yen.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100219/bs_nm/us_usa_fed

....
“The discount rate historically has always been used as a psychological tool for signaling the future course of monetary policy,” said Sung Won Sohn, former chief economist at Wells Fargo & Co. and now an economics professor at California State University-Channel Islands in Camarillo, California. “The bottom line is the Fed is signaling that in the future rates are more likely to go up, rather than stay stable or go down.”

U.S. central bankers closed four emergency lending facilities this month and are preparing to reverse or neutralize the more than $1 trillion in excess bank reserves they have pumped into the banking system. The discount-rate increase will encourage banks to borrow in private markets rather than from the Fed, the statement said. ...

Financial institutions have reduced their reliance on the Fed window. Banks had borrowed $14.1 billion as of Feb. 17, representing less than 1 percent of the central bank’s $2.28 trillion in total assets. A year ago, borrowing stood at $65.1 billion. The Fed continues to add reserves to the banking system with its purchases of $1.43 trillion in housing debt, which are scheduled to end next month.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=amj4X4IWKCys&pos=3

LONDON (CNNMoney.com) -- U.S. stock futures tumbled early Friday, as the Federal Reserve's decision to raise its emergency funding rate triggered worries about tighter credit.

At 5:11 a.m. ET, Dow Jones industrial average, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures were sharply lower.

Wall Street has rebounded this week. U.S. stocks rose for a third straight session Thursday, led by gains in bank and tech shares. ....

Major European indexes fell in morning trading. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei retreated 2%.

http://money.cnn.com/2010/02/19/markets/premarkets/index.htm

HONG KONG, Feb 19 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar rose, commodity prices dropped and stocks fell on Friday after the Federal Reserve unexpectedly lifted an emergency lending rate for the first time since the financial crisis.

...

Though the Fed cited improving market conditions, traders said the action had come sooner than expected and moved the central bank one step closer to pushing up benchmark lending rates, which would raise borrowing costs for consumers and companies.

'The emergency easing cycle began with discount rate cuts -- it was all about easing liquidity to banks. So the move to raise the discount rate means the long journey towards (policy) normalisation has begun,' Robert Rennie, chief currency strategist at Westpac in Sydney, said in a Reuters chat room.

The U.S. dollar index, a gauge of its performance against six major currencies, rose more than 1 percent to its highest in eight months at 81.30 after the Fed move, which was announced after Wall Street stock markets had closed.

The euro fell to its lowest in 9 months, though it briefly trimmed losses after St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said market expectations for a policy rate hike this year were 'overblown.'

Still, coming so soon after China delivered two surprising increases in banks' reserve requirements this year, the Fed's move worried investors who have become quite comfortable with extraordinary amounts of money injected into banking systems during the financial crisis.

Ample amounts of cheap cash fuelled a strong rally in stocks and commodities last year. But as governments and central banks around the world start withdrawing that stimulus and tightening policy, markets are bound to turn more volatile, likely curbing returns.

BANKS STUNG AFTER FED

The MSCI index of Asia Pacific stocks outside Japan fell for a second day, losing 1.8 percent, with the financial, materials, consumer and energy sectors all hit hard.

Hong Kong stocks led declines in the region as the Hang Seng index sank 2.5 percent. Shares of global bank HSBC were the biggest drag on the index, down 1.9 percent.

Japan's Nikkei share average finished down 2 percent . Mizuho Financial Group, Japan's second-largest bank, lost 2.8 percent, while top bank Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group fell 1.3 percent.

/... http://www.xe.com/news/2010/02/19/964529.htm?c=1&t=

Fri Feb 19, 2010 5:02am EST LONDON, Feb 19 (Reuters) - European shares fell on Friday, snapping a four-day winning streak, after the U.S. Federal Reserve raised an emergency lending rate, with banks among the worst performers.

By 0940 GMT, the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 .FTEU3 index of top shares was down 0.4 percent at 1,017.47 points after being down as low as 1,010.83.

The index which gained around 26 percent last year is down nearly 3 percent for the year.

"It (the Fed announcement) took the markets by surprise," said Philippe Gijsels, head of research at BNP Paribas Fortis Global Markets in Brussels "The market is now struggling between the negative and the positive view... Some are worried that it is a signal for the Fed to become more hawkish ... but others are more positive and see it means the market is now normalising and the economy is recovering enough to be on its own."

Banks featured among the worst performers but some stocks were recovering from earlier falls. Banco Santander (SAN.MC), UBS (UBSN.VX) and Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY.L) fell 0.9 to 1.1 percent. However, HSBC (HSBA.L), BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA) and Barclays (BARC.L) rose 0.5 to 0.9 percent.

...

Across Europe, the FTSE 100 .FTSE index was down 0.1 percent and both Germany's DAX .GDAXI and France's CAC 40 .FCHI lost 0.2 percent.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/idCALDE61I0JC20100219?rpc=44


FTSE gains 0.2 pct; firm banks offset weak miners

Fri Feb 19, 2010 4:42am EST LONDON, Feb 19 (Reuters) - Britain's top share index rose slightly on Friday, extending its advance into a fifth consecutive session, as strength from banks and defensive stocks offset falls from miners in volatile trade. By 0914 GMT, the FTSE 100 .FTSE was up 10.77 points, or 0.2 percent, at 5,335.86, after ending 0.9 percent higher on Thursday, its highest close since Jan. 21.

Traders put some of the volatility early on Friday down to futures and options expiry, which take place in London between 1000-1015 GMT.

Banks built on Thursday's strong advance, with investors still inspired by Barclays's (BARC.L) forecast-beating results at the start of the week.

...

Defensive stocks were in favour as investors' risk appetite dwindled.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/idCALDE61I09820100219?rpc=44

Fri Feb 19, 2010 10:40am EST LONDON, Feb 19 (Reuters) - European shares turned positive on Friday afternoon, as worries abated over the prospect that the U.S. Federal Reserve could start to retreat from its easy money policy after it raised its discount rate.

By 1531 GMT, the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 .FTEU3 index was up 0.1 percent at 1,022.76 points.

Food producers were strong, led higher by a 2.5 percent rise in Nestle (NESN.VX) after it said it is aiming for higher underlying sales growth in 2010 after a robust performance in Asia and the Americas helped it beat forecasts for 2009. Within the sector, Danone (DANO.PA), Associated British Foods (ABF.L) and Unilever (ULVR.L) rose 0.9 to 2.2 percent.

/.. http://www.reuters.com/article/idCALDE61I1FB20100219?rpc=44

....
The jobless claims series is the best real time dataset we have – and right now it is pointing to a weak and halting recovery. There are still 5.5 million people on the unemployment roles (4.6 using the seasonally-adjusted data). However, there are a record 5.8 million people collecting extended unemployment benefits as well. So, this brings us to a record 11.3 million people collecting some sort of unemployment insurance benefit in the United States. ...

-see data table-

The areas marked in red from this past week’s report show continued elevated levels of stress in America’s labor market. However, compare those figures to the year ago numbers and it is clear that we are losing fewer jobs than at the height of the downturn. So, the labor market, while weak is marginally improved in this regard.

The most distressing difference however is the last line – EUC 2008. This is the number of individuals on extended benefits – and that number has trebled since the depths of the recession. Translation: long-term unemployment rates have skyrocketed. And since long-term unemployment equals loss of skills and employability, we are looking at statistics that will translate into a human tragedy for many Americans if and when the employment picture brightens.

http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/02/jobless-claims-report-points-to-long-term-unemployment-problem.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+creditwritedowns+%28Credit+Writedowns%29

:donut: Well, I think the revolution has begun. I don't know if it made the news up your way but a man finally had enough and drove his plane into the IRS building. This method of seeking justice has an appeal here in Texas. In fact, Ann Richards once opined that gas prices had gotten so bad that ex wives were car pooling to run over their husbands.

Of course the media is making the guy out to be a nut job, but when you read his manefesto-he dosen't seem crazy to me-just very frustrated. A lone deranged person they say but I see the desperation and anger he voices every where these days. I think TPTB had better sit up and take notice. People were meek and compliant , more or less, during the first depression but I don't think it will fly this time around. Like a swarm of flies, these modern day pests swarm around the middle class. When they swarm enough, it can drive an animal to it's death.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/35468099#35468099

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/35468099#35468035

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/35468099#35467993

www.businessinsider.com/joseph-andrew-stacks-insane-manifesto-2010-2

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

Spouse said he sounded just like me. Uh oh.
Well, except I have no plane.

Even though the FBI removed his website, I'm sure there are copies of the 7-page manifesto floating around to read. Not that I agree with what Stack did, but it's going to be a wake-up call to others.

Most people are basically rational. What he did accomplished nothing except to kill himself and a couple other people maybe. It did not in and of itself make a statement. It was not meant to deliver any kind of political message because he was not part of a political movement or organization.

Terrorism? No. There's no statement being made with any force to sustain a movement.

One lone, deranged, disturbed, desperate individual. Not a terrorist, just a person with a mental illness that hadn't been diagnosed yet, more than likely.


Tansy Gold, rushing to deadline.

He's the first to draw widespread media attention. Even now, there are people doing irrational things, just that they don't draw the national media. There's plenty more deranged people out there and something will trigger a violent reaction.

I believe that these days-any one can be stressed to the breaking point and you are whistling past the grave yard if you think it couldn't happen to you.

He started writing that manifesto at the suggestion of his psychologist, so he was under treatment. Instead of helping him get this off his chest, it helped him focus his anger. Every one that knew him was shocked by his actions

I liken what happened to him like what happens when flies swarm in Africa. When they swarm around an animal-the animal will run themselves to death. Now how crazy is that, but my fellow teacher from Nigeria confirms this. In fact she had a very similar take the plane crash as I did on this event.

I think folks in the middle class are being swarmed and it is only a matter of time before there will be more of these 'lone individual' incidences.

a lone crazy.

He's not part of a movement, an organized organization /sic/ that has an agenda. Did he draw attention to himself? yes. Did he draw attention to the grievances of his group? No, because there is no group.

The difference between Stack's act of self-destruction and say an al-Qaeda or ETA or IRA or even a neo-American-nazi-aryan-cult bombing is that the "enemy" (that's us) knows that another similar act is possible. A terrorist act is designed to arouse terror, that's its raison-d'être. If the terrorist dies in the act and there is no terrorist organization, that's it. Finis. The End.

But if the public -- or the govt. -- knows that there is an organization behind the terrorist act, an organization that has even the most nebulous of goals, then the public becomes afraid. When will they strike next? Where? In what manner? How can we stop them?

It's that fourth question that leads to all kinds of stupid reactions, but in Stack's case, he's dead and isn't going to do this again. We know that -- or at least we're pretty darn certain.

If the militias of the 1980s and the various neo-nazi white supremacist orgs are America's version of terrorist organizations, we haven't seen much action from them. McVeigh was part of a small group, but there was no real organization behind him, and much of what there was in terms of other militia orgs -- and they were pretty amorphous in and of themselves -- was wiped out with him. Was David Koresh developing a terrorist organization in Waco? Was Randy Weaver building one in Idaho? If so, they never got much beyond the preliminary stages.

And to a certain extent, I think we have to THANK the governments -- mostly the feds but also state and local LEAs who kept some of these dudes under watch -- for keeping us pretty darn safe. Sure, we've had the Unabomber and Eric Rudolph and the anti-abortion killers, but none of them have managed to build an organization that resembles anything like a political movement.

Will the tea-baggers consolidate behind Stack's manifesto? I doubt it. I could be wrong, but I don't see them as able to form a cohesive party apparatus of the strength that's needed to influence much beyond very very local levels. Stack isn't going to be around to whip them into a frenzy. And most of them aren't going to whip themselves up into a suicidal frenzy the way their Islamist counterpart are able to do.

While I agree that Stack reached a tipping point that we all may be heading for, he reached his at a pretty low level. How many of the 300,000,000 or so Americans are going to emulate him in the next year? 10? 20? 100? We've always had our lone crazies, our Mansons and Whitmans, LePines and Gacys, Specks and Bundys and Dahmers. Whatever their politics, they were acting alone and didn't spark irrational fears of terrorism. We've always had our employees who go off on their employers or former employers, as with the case of Dr. Bishop. We've always had the jilted lovers, the possessive exes, even the paranoid believers who kill their children to save them from damnation.

Even the suicidal cult leaders like Jim Jones and the Heaven's Gate leader aren't terrorists because their destructive acts are only directed at their own, and their SELF destruction brings about the death of the movement as well.

We all, I'm sure, will find some areas of common ground with Stack's manifesto. But I'll bet we find areas of disagreement, too. And that's part of what keeps us from doing the same thing he did. We not only see the whole picture differently than he does, but we have enough grounding in our own reality that we know suicide -- and especially suicide/homicide -- will not solve the problem. Stack was less interested in solving his problems than in being a martyr to them.

That's stupid, in the opinion of



Tansy Gold

seems like he had taken a bunch of real data, and calculated it screwy to his advantage, and the IRS didn't agree. Doubt that he had professional advice of an accountant or a lawyer, but instead was following one of those "Tax Protester" cults.

We may all be livid at the special treatment afforded the TBTF, but we aren't crazy enough to expect or demand similar treatment. At least, if any of you are, I don't want to know about it. Plausible deniability, folks.

(Up a bit. Debt seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat. Good Friday all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,878,416,869,865.30 + 4,508,078,666,016.93
UP 408,694,886.67 + UP 1,728,827,259.24

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.72, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,763,678 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $40,116.43.
A family of three owes $120,349.28. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 33 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 3,053,139,370.81.
The average for the last 30 days would be 2,238,968,871.93.
The average for the last 33 days would be 2,035,426,247.21.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 94 reports in 140 days of FY2010 averaging 5.07B$ per report, 3.40B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,068 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.9 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
02/17/2010 12,386,495,535,882.23 BHO (UP 1,759,618,486,969.15 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,476,666,532,370.50 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,242,737,745,108.80 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
01/27/2010 +000,063,416,019.94 ------------*******
01/28/2010 -024,245,578,618.07 -
01/29/2010 -000,416,981,206.21 ---
02/01/2010 +090,319,223,365.33 ------------********** Mon
02/02/2010 -000,066,012,400.47 ----
02/03/2010 +000,334,538,130.44 ------------********
02/04/2010 -009,677,289,403.68 --
02/05/2010 -000,081,816,346.60 ----
02/08/2010 +000,119,837,978.11 ------------******** Mon
02/09/2010 +000,368,016,270.35 ------------********
02/10/2010 -000,056,577,287.25 ----
02/11/2010 +007,265,093,186.33 ------------*********
02/12/2010 -000,104,736,856.82 ---
02/16/2010 +030,097,605,306.92 ------------********** Tue
02/17/2010 +000,408,694,886.67 ------------********

94,327,433,024.99 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4273654&mesg_id=4273661

(Up some. Debt seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,893,641,770,933.09 + 4,507,806,895,875.21
UP 15,224,901,067.79 + DOWN 271,770,141.72

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.72, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,772,318 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $40,163.73.
A family of three owes $120,491.2. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 34 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 3,570,530,308.00.
The average for the last 30 days would be 2,737,406,569.46.
The average for the last 34 days would be 2,415,358,737.76.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 95 reports in 141 days of FY2010 averaging 5.17B$ per report, 3.49B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,067 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.9 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
02/18/2010 12,401,448,666,808.30 BHO (UP 1,774,571,617,895.22 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,491,619,663,296.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,272,632,461,725.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
01/28/2010 -024,245,578,618.07 -
01/29/2010 -000,416,981,206.21 ---
02/01/2010 +090,319,223,365.33 ------------********** Mon
02/02/2010 -000,066,012,400.47 ----
02/03/2010 +000,334,538,130.44 ------------********
02/04/2010 -009,677,289,403.68 --
02/05/2010 -000,081,816,346.60 ----
02/08/2010 +000,119,837,978.11 ------------******** Mon
02/09/2010 +000,368,016,270.35 ------------********
02/10/2010 -000,056,577,287.25 ----
02/11/2010 +007,265,093,186.33 ------------*********
02/12/2010 -000,104,736,856.82 ---
02/16/2010 +030,097,605,306.92 ------------********** Tue
02/17/2010 +000,408,694,886.67 ------------********
02/18/2010 +015,224,901,067.79 ------------**********

109,488,918,072.84 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4275265&mesg_id=4275294

From FT:


Yves Smith offers this perspective:

Putting two and two together, if the Quatremer J’accuse is confirmed, the wrath of the EU may come down on Goldman. They may not be able to take any immediate action, but look how many believe that Bear was at least in part a victim of its failure to participate in the rescue of LTCM a decade before. If this report is confirmed, I will have to rethink my view that Goldman remained TBTF (more accurately, too interconnected to fail) no matter what the official pretenses were. Goldman may have just made itself Too Controversial To Save.

Which brings to mind the question: Could we be looking at Goldman Sachs as the next Arthur Andersen?

Re: bond sales, there should be a strong argument for prosecution. Where these bonds rated, and if so did the rating agencies have full knowledge of the extent Greece had overstepped the leveraging limits?

Did GS (under Paulson's leadership) play similar games with the other PIIGS?

One can pray that Europe will have less tolerance of bank fraud than WDC. :popcorn:

:FRSP: :KNITTING:

Yesterday's news about the departure of the head of the debt management agency, Spyros Papanicolaou, was somewhat of a yawner, until we realized that his replacement would be none other than Petros Christodoulou, who until today was head of Private Banking and Group Treasury at the National Bank of Greece (reporting directly to the CEO of the NBG Tamvakakis), as can be seen on the org chart below. Yet was is oddest, is that Mr. Christodoulou worked not only as head of derivatives at JP Morgan but also held comparable posts at Credit Suisse, and... wait for it, Goldman Sachs... Uh, say what?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/head-greek-debt-office-replaced-former-goldman-investment-banker


Well that's that.

What was Jefferson's exact quote?

Banking organizations are more dangerous than standing armies.

How long before they run out of made men and somebody unconnected gets into that office?

Please, please, let the bastards known collectively as Goldman Sachs be dumped on the ash heap of life, never to recover even a modicum of their abused and abusive power or wealth.....

NYT columnist William D. Cohan, on Pres. Obama's statement that Wall Street Bonus Babies are "savvy businessmen," and that he doesn't "begrudge people success or wealth":



Link to entire column, with eye-popping $-signs:
http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/02/18/the-great-goldman-sachs-fire-sale-of-2008/?ref=opinion

....During the bubble, the small and regional banks were locked out of the residential market (lucky for them!), but many of these banks became overexposed to Construction & Development (C&D) and CRE loans. Now that the CRE bust is here - and is about to get much worse - many small and regional banks will fail over next couple of years.

From V. Dion Haynes at the WaPo: In D.C., more evidence that commercial real estate headed for foreclosure crisis:


There is much more in the article.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/02/elizabeth-warren-on-cre.html

why isn't this woman Sec of the Treasury???

or all three!

Warren is wonderful. I've been using her to teach in my economics classes for a decade now.

Uh oh.

:hide: :hide: :spank: :spank: :hide: :hide:

which she will destroy or make disappear, for your own best interest....

You'll have to launder all your money after I talk to her.......:spank:

Daddy just took me to McDonalds, and bribed me with a double cheeseburger.

If so - this might be the only time I offer investment advice.

:evilgrin:

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 81.087 Change +0.689 (+0.89%)

Dollar to Extend Gains Against Euro and Pound on Weak Data, Risk Aversion

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/euro_open/2010-02-19-0731-Dollar_to_Extend_Gains_Against.html

The US Dollar is likely to extend gains against the Euro and the British Pound as European economic data comes in soft, underscoring the likelihood of a relatively hawkish Fed versus the BOE and ECB, while falling stock index futures point to risk aversion.

Key Overnight Developments

• New Zealand Credit Card Spending Grows Most in Eight Months
• Euro Consolidates, British Pound Declines in Overnight Trade



The Euro consolidated losses in a narrow range through Asian session trade, drifting sideways in a 60-pip band below the 1.35 figure. The British Pound traded lower, slipping as much as 0.9% against the greenback. We remain short EURUSD at 1.4881 and GBPUSD at 1.5765.



New Zealand Credit Card Spending grew 1.5% in January, the largest monthly increase since April 2009. The annual growth rate advanced to 2.6%, the highest in 18 months. Perhaps most interestingly, outstanding credit card balances posted the first month of positive growth since July 2009, adding 0.3% in the year to January. Increasing willingness to take on debt may reflect an improved outlook about future income and employment, which bodes well for private consumption and – by extension – for the ability of New Zealand’s economic recovery to become self-sustaining. That said, it seems premature to read too much into this outcome yet given yesterday’s disappointing consumer confidence survey.

...more...

Risk Appetite and Carry Interest may soon Lose Their Balance as Greece and the Fed’s Hike Build Pressure

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/carry_trade_basket/2010-02-19-0355-Risk_Appetite_and_Carry_Interest.html



• Risk Appetite and Carry Interest may soon Lose Their Balance as Greece and the Fed’s Hike Build Pressure
• Removing Government Stimulus has Moved from Abstract Warnings to Clear Action
• With Financial Risks Growing Can Expected Returns Keep Pace?

After a week of severe volatility as the market made a critical and dispassionately blunt assessment of the global market’s health, it was only natural that things would even out. With the winds of risk aversion blowing at a category 3 hurricane force, it wasn’t difficult to point out burgeoning problems like Greece’s potential default or China’s efforts to curb growth and speculation. However, without specific catalysts, a temporary balance would return. Does this mean that the we have found a level of equilibrium for the immediate future? No. The market simply awaits the next trigger and clear bearing on the building or unwinding of speculative positions before the crowd throws its conviction behind the one direction or the other. And, there are plenty of individual financial concerns that can spark the contagion of outright panic – that is as long as investors are alert and susceptible to bearish news. Looking outside of the fundamental tides that can feed risk aversion and risk appetite; we can see that traders are exposed because of the overly optimistic bearing through the market itself. In terms of progress, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Carry Trade Index have barely retraced the record-breaking advances they posted through 2009. Historically, the 2009 rally was the most aggressive in history. Born of a massive return of speculative capital following a unprecedented crisis (the Great Depression didn’t have the speculative concentration nor the global interconnectedness that the markets encompass today); this influx inflated asset values beyond what the feeble economic recovery could promise. After having gone through the stages of a staunched inflow of capital, tempered expectations of quick capital gains and an admission of linger fundamental problems; we are now to the point where expectations are being reconciled to reality.

Taking a look at the macro economy and turning over a few rocks will yield no shortage of fundamental troubles. However - as anyone that has enough experience with the markets can tell you - sentiment and the promise of returns can keep investors blissfully ignorant of the risks. This is the case until the outlook for returns throttles back or the risks grow too large to ignore. Right now, we are experiencing a bit of both of these conditions. Having stalled out at the end of the year, the benchmark asset classes are no longer producing capital returns which leaves market participants dependent on yield income. Yet, dividends, coupon and interest payments are tied to an exceedingly frail economy that cannot support the necessary returns to support current levels. Therein lies the vulnerability to signs that conditions are worsening. Currently there is no shortage of severe threats to financial stability. Recently, the Federal Reserve took the remarkable step of hiking the US discount rate. This is not the same thing as raising the Federal Funds rate; but the implications domestically and global are nonetheless profound. The world’s largest central bank took a clear step towards withdrawing stimulus by reducing banks’ access to cheap loans. Realistically, this is just another step in a gradual shift worldwide to rollback the safety net and allow the market to stand on its own. Perhaps the more explosive risk though is the situation in the European Union. Greece needs capital to roll out its existing debt and establish a recovery. At the same time, the nation has to comply with the EU’s rules. There is no scenario where everyone comes out unscathed. What makes it worse, Greece isn’t the only burden for the EU.

...more...

S&P 500 1,099 -6.40 -0.58%
DOW 10,335 -40.00 -0.39%
NASDAQ 1,815 -6.25 -0.34%

they'll hit the salt flats soon.:evilgrin:

Wonder how high they will pump it up before the bank failures...

Speaking of which, we need another theme.

It was Ash Wednesday--atonement?

The weather locally has been above freezing for several days here. My snowdrops have reappeared as the snow has melted off them. I feel a decade younger, and am down to one layer. Even open the car windows and the house windows a bit. Seems too early to hit Spring for diversion, though.

Protest songs in honor of the Mr. Stack?

Too early for Easter, we did Mardi Gras already.

DON'T MAKE ME GET OUT THE DISNEY FILE!

HOW ABOUT JOHN DENVER?

And John Denver should be.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x4276168


And, come on! John Denver hung out with the Muppets! He was cool! :)

You'll find quite a lot from the disaffected and violent there circa 1756.

I kind of like to put Scots music around St. Patrick's, since the Celtic musicians usually play both, and I have a hard time differentiating.

It's like Freeperville, but with better spelling....usually.

:puke:

Freeperville with better spelling...You should go on the road with this.

:)

gets one an eyeful of wingnut comments. This is why SMW is a haven of sanity for which I am grateful.

Southwest Ohio man bulldozes home to avoid foreclosure
By Associated Press
February 19, 2010, 12:39PM
MOSCOW, Ohio -- An Ohio man says he bulldozed his home after a bank began foreclosure proceedings and says he won't let the bank take his carpet business either.

Terry Hoskins of Moscow in southwest Ohio says he has struggled with the RiverHills Bank over his Clermont County home for years and had problems with the Internal Revenue Service. He says the IRS placed liens on his store and commercial property and the bank claimed his house as collateral.

Hoskins says after spending millions on attorneys he just had enough and two weeks ago bulldozed the home, 25 miles southeast of Cincinnati.

When asked if he would level the store, Hoskins said he would do "what it takes."

Messages were left for the bank and its attorney, and with the southern Ohio office of the IRS.

:wtf:


Why didn't he just pay his mortgage/taxes with those millions??

Can't you just enjoy a good story, Spock?

could live like a king god, its called living within your means:o.Your right if he had the millions he should have payed the house off crazy crazy's , tell em to go cut there toenails and they go and cut off there legs lol.:yoiks:

now where would the protest be in that?

:eyes: