Double-dip recession looms: Roach

Source: Bloomberg

11 May 2010, 0328 hrs IST,Bloomberg

WASHINGTON/NEW YORK: THE fallout from the European debt crisis raises the risk of a “double dip” recession for the global economy, said Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia Ltd.

“When you have a vulnerable post-crisis economic recovery and crises reverberating in the aftermath of that, you have some very serious risks to the global business cycle,” Roach said in an interview today on Bloomberg Radio with Tom Keene. “This concept of the global double dip which no one wants to talk about,” he said, “is alive and well.”

Governments of the 16 euro nations agreed today to lend as much as 750 billion euros ($962 billion) to the most-indebted countries. The European Central Bank said it will counter “severe tensions” in “certain” markets by purchasing government and private debt.

Stocks rallied around the world after the announcement, sending the MSCI World Index up the most in 13 months. Greek bonds soared and the euro strengthened. Concerns that the Greek financial crisis will spread wiped $3.7 trillion from the value of global stock markets last week.

European efforts to stave off contagion will not be enough to prevent “significant” contractions in some of the affected countries, Roach said. Every “fix” is accompanied by “an adjustment in the real economy,” he said.


Read more: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international-business/Double-dip-recession-looms-Roach/articleshow/5915192.cms

:-(

and no bail out is going to change that.

The longer we deny this, the worse it will be when it finally turns critical.

You are trying to stop a raging fire with a squirt gun.

:D

Plain and simple.

Is not worth the effort, let alone monetary policy and exchange rates.

and his pessimism focuses on current accounts, trade and federal budget deficits.

I can see it now..

Mechanic: "If you don't change your oil every 5000 miles, your pistons will seize up and your engine will be destroyed."

jpak: "OMG! Doooooomm!!11! :rofl: :rofl:"

and yes - Obama MUST fail

yup!

:D

but I make it a point to never discuss politics with my mechanic.

Good advice.

you engage in with people who are guilty of nothing more than facing the reality of the circumstances we currently find ourselves in, our country still faces a dire situation economically, and it doesn't change that reality.

Millions are still jobless, Millions are suffering and struggling just to get by.

I'm sure they all find your Clown act quite funny.


They are tired of being lied to, and they just want their duly elected leaders to DO Something instead of Spin a Fabricated Reality out of Hot Air.

What you are doing isn't funny, it isn't cute, and it isn't helpful, and it adds nothing to the debate or discussion.

With all due respect....

GROW UP

This isn't a Sports Team Rivalry

Was the bazooka aimed at the markets or was it to protect the currency, if it was to protect the currency, they failed. If it was for the markets, time will tell what additional liquidity does.

Frankly the continued bailouts is more likely to scare off equity investment.

They pay for some of their supplies in Euros.

As Keynes said, a broken window makes the glass company happy.

Obama said that a few weeks ago and then it was scrubbed --

We're all quite trusting about this, tho!!!

Meanwhile, I think the homeowners are still going under?

Banks don't want that stopped!

They should be forced to renegotiate --

Yeah -- I believe it!!

the only thing i see in the cards is more, but bigger, wars.

sooner than any of us expect.

from 9/11 till his last day...

me: 'he hasn't nuked anyone, yet'

(not counting DU)
source...
http://politicalhumor.about.com/od/georgewbush/ig/100-Bush-Pictures/Bush-Strangelove.htm

:cry:

If we go into Iran or if the Israelis do, there will be doom.

....so, they're going to make their sucker taxpayers send their hard-earned Euros to wall street....interesting, I wonder what their sucker citizens will have to say about that?

I expect burning things.

Paper money by the dump-truck load. It only has value as long as everyone agrees that it does.

So, the 16 countries, which each have sovereign debts of hundreds of billions of Euros, largely to each other, are now pledging to issue bonds to transfuse hundreds of billions to whoever collapses next.

No actual, existing wealth is pledged here (because there is none to spare in any of the chronic-deficit E.C. economies) - the only thing that is pledged is...more pledges. There are still suckers to buy bonds that will never be paid...but there are fewer of them every day. At some point, everyone gets scared, and then the bubble pops.

So, the day of reckoning for the EC gets postponed a little. In politics, postponing a crisis is the same as solving a crisis.

That may be the greatest truth I've seen here in a long time. Don't know if you formulated it or found it, but it bears repeating, often.

we Americans never stop at just one of anything!

:sarcasm:

Don't you know that only happy, positive thoughts will bring this country back into its' normal, healthy, Capitalist state?

Smile and say "Cheese"!!!

:sarcasm:

There is no ailment in any society which can't be cured with hordes of galloping ponies, so it seems...

Ponies are so 2009.

and from where I am sitting, I don't see any end to that. I'm self employed, my income dropped by over 25 % in 2009 and it's even worse this year. The economy never recovered for a lot of people.

and the bailouts getting bigger.

Sooner or later, the whole thing has got to blow.

And he's always right...oh wait...well, maybe it will be a triple-dip.

the rest of the investment community should be doing more than looking on from the sidelines." - Vince Stanzione

1) the economy holds together a little further into the real downslope of Hubbert's peak and
2) something drastic happens to the climate before the real economic crash comes because then

we might do something about it before it's so too late the planet won't even be able to support human-level intelligence ever again.

OK I know a lot of the ills we're experiencing now have more to do with the madness of neoliberalism and King Ronald. Just tax the rich a bit more and we'd get a vibrant creative middle class again freed of the indentured servitude of the insurance industry, and people would invent all kinds of amazing solutions to our problems.

Heck, LED solar alone could pretty much fix the energy crisis and end a lot of what's driving the climate disaster.

But those drivers have been behind the wheel long enough now the car is starting to fishtail and the wall up ahead is not getting any springier. It'll take all the human genius we have left to survive this one. A huge, coordinated, collective effort.

Those methane hydrates that exploded in the gulf and clogged the dome? They're melting in the Arctic now. Holes are opening in the ice, even in winter, around some of the northern sea islands.

That's the beginning of positive feedback folks, and last time it happened full bore, 95% of all life went extinct, 250 million years ago.

So yeah, I'm watching the icecap and morbidly praying it melts this year, because maybe in a couple of years we'll have already devolved so far into 20th century style barbarism (as the US military is on record as fearing) we won't have a prayer at all. Now though, we can still stop this thing.

I completely agree.

While it's true, that $3.7 trillion went into somebody's pockets.
It probably went into pockets that R more than already full.
Perhaps that's the big part the problem.

why do we keep bailing it out? Propping up capitalist, debt ridden economies only kicks the ball a little furter down the road to economic hell.

There is so much suffering described in those few, cold words.

:cry: