A day when the White House reversed its stand on Israel

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/03/23/politics/23DIPL.html?ex=1080622800&en=d98ce74f03c8126b&ei=5062&partner=GOOGLEA

<<WASHINGTON, March 22 — The Bush administration, in the middle of its own campaign to capture or kill Osama bin Laden and others it considers terrorists, found itself on Monday in the position of being pressed by world opinion to criticize as "deeply troubling" Israel's assassination of the leader of Hamas.

In a startling sequence of events unusual even for the ups and downs of Middle East policy, the administration began the day by avoiding direct criticism of Israel after the killing of Sheik Ahmed Yassin in Gaza City.

Instead, Condoleezza Rice, the national security adviser, said in a morning television interview that Hamas was a terrorist organization, that Sheik Yassin had been involved in terrorist actions and that it was "very important that everyone step back and try now to be calm in the region."

Only later in the afternoon did the administration shift tone and criticize Israel's action as harmful to the cause of bringing peace to the region.

"We're deeply troubled by this morning's events in Gaza," said Richard Boucher, the State Department spokesman, adding that all sides, including Israel, should now "exercise maximum restraint" and "do everything possible to avoid any further actions that would make more difficult the restoration of calm."

An administration official acknowledged that a change of tone was chosen only after a torrent of criticism erupted throughout the Arab world, and was then joined by condemnations from the European Union and Britain, the United States' closest ally in the Iraq war.

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NYT

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In a startling sequence of events unusual even for the ups and downs of Middle East policy, the administration began the day by avoiding direct criticism of Israel after the killing of Sheik Ahmed Yassin in Gaza City.

Instead, Condoleezza Rice, the national security adviser, said in a morning television interview that Hamas was a terrorist organization, that Sheik Yassin had been involved in terrorist actions and that it was "very important that everyone step back and try now to be calm in the region."

Only later in the afternoon did the administration shift tone and criticize Israel's action as harmful to the cause of bringing peace to the region.

"We're deeply troubled by this morning's events in Gaza," said Richard Boucher, the State Department spokesman, adding that all sides, including Israel, should now "exercise maximum restraint" and "do everything possible to avoid any further actions that would make more difficult the restoration of calm."

Add one more to the Bush flip flop list.

O

snip>
Israeli officials argued Monday that the killing of Sheik Yassin was consistent with its plans for withdrawal, and indeed would make the withdrawal more effective.

Mr. Sharon was concerned, they explained, that the withdrawal would be seen as a retreat that would simply embolden the most radical anti-Israel forces, much as Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000 seemed to embolden Hezbollah, the militant group that gets support from Syria and Lebanon.

"What happened in Lebanon was that the withdrawal gave an incentive to every jihadist to attack Israel," an Israeli official said. "Part of the Israeli policy as we move toward disengagement is to make Hamas bleed, so no one can proceed on the assumption that an Israeli withdrawal is a victory for them."

If that was Israel's purpose, it did not seem to bring the desired objective. Administration officials said that the assassination was a mistake that would make more difficult any Arab cooperation with the withdrawal, particularly on the part of Jordan and Egypt.

We lost our relationship with Jordan and/or Egypt, and perhaps just saw the last opportunity for Israel to avoid regional war with all of its neighbors again, like 73, 68, etc.

If this has indeed happened it is more than ominous. It is the beginning of a hew level of war, and you can kiss OPEC goodbye. Regimes we have been counting on, will abandon us, or worse, betray us from here onward. You can kiss Iraq goodbye as well. The Saudi rule cannot survive that level of unrest.

It has been an open question whether the US could maintain a military presence in the Middle East without the approval of the Saudis. Now we are about to find out. We will secure Iraqi oil via a new footprint in Turkey, but it will be at the expense of the Kurds. That will doom Iraq as a nation, IMO.

When Jordan and Egypt move on Israel, we will find out how modern all the region's nuclear technology really is. I will not be at all surprised if by the end of this week, Israel is fighting for its survival. I will not be totally surprised if Israel's strike is actually retaliatory, as they know they cannot survive without us and what they can get from Europe as well.

I fear that the whole region has the best the Former Soviet Union and China, via Pakistan, had to offer. Safeguarding the nuke-pile is another effort given short shrift by team Doofus. If my assumption is correct, all hell is about to break loose somewhere like Tel Aviv, Damascus, Cairo, Amman and or elsewhere in the region, and it is very much the responsibility of two egotistical madmen, George W. Bush and Ariel Sharon.

I hope you're wrong, that this will blow over like the last n crises did.

I doubt Jordan and Egypt will risk everything for the sake of Hamas. Israel and the Palestianians are waging a low-level war, using the tactics of asymmetrical war. Neither side can afford escalation beyond a certain point. There will be some ugly terrorist attacks in retaliation, and that will be that.

Probably, this will indeed blow over when it becomes clear that the Sharon government is prepared to leave Gaza (dismantle the settlements). I gather that the purpose of the assassination was to make it politically possible in Israel to do this. Sharon must look tough while he gives up so much.

will not leave Gaza.
I also fear that Egypt is not as stable as they make out.
Stability in the region will suffer from this. And no one retires an 'n' times champion at Russian Roulette.

At some point we will get what we want, a new holy war in the Middle east, based on our God Given Right to their oil.

to assasinate a terrorist coming out of a house of worship in a wheelchair,
is there any problem with inflicting capital punishment upon 70+ armed mercenaries caught on their way to effect a coup?

... may not be the same as what is mentioned in private.

Only political posturing. Bush, as commander in chief, must disavow foreknowledge of the assasination. The killing of Sheik Yassin directly impacts the security of US troops in Iraq.