Korean War 'May Break Out At Any Moment': North Korea

Source: AFP

A North Korean diplomat said Thursday that tensions on the Korean peninsula were running so high over the sinking of a South Korean warship that "war may break out at any moment."

In a speech to the international Conference on Disarmament, Ri Jang-Gon, deputy permanent representative for North Korea at the United Nations in Geneva, blamed the "grave situation" on South Korea and the United States.

"The present situation of the Korean peninsula is so grave that a war may break out at any moment," he said.

International investigators on May 20 announced their findings that a North Korean submarine had fired a heavy torpedo to sink the warship, in what has been described as the most serious act of aggression from the North since the Korean war 60 years ago.

Read more: http://rawstory.com/news/afp/Korean_war_may_break_out_at_any_mom_06032010.html

has been getting 'along'. Haven't heard a word lately fromt he M$M on the N./S. Korean situation. Of course, what else is new.

That tends to increase tensions.

I sometimes wonder if NK isn't just hoping for a war before their whole system collapses.

And war is the only thing left to keep things together. If NK does start a war, it will be over with very, very quickly.

They have nothing.

They unstoppable ability to devastate Seoul in a matter of minutes. A war might be over quick but it would be a big mess.

Unless they get massive backing from China, which is unlikely.

A country that's been battling massive starvation does not have the ability to wage war.

They have massive numbers of fixed artillery emplacements, dialed in and ready to fire simple explosive shells on a phone-call's notice. This is WWI technology and they've had it for decades. It's about as inexpensive and low-tech as you can get, but remember: millions of soldiers died in WWI. The number one killer by far? Artillery.

Last I heard, North Korea has more than thirteen THOUSAND artillery pieces along the border, more than half of which are within range of (and currently pointed at) Seoul. Those artillery pieces are manned by a special 80,000 man force that maintains the guns in a "fire ready" state, and who can fire their weapons with only 90 seconds notice.

And those are just the forces along the border.

Including flight time, North Korea could hammer Seoul with more than 6000 artillery shells within three minutes of a declaration of war. More importantly, many of those guns can maintain a fire rate of 1-5 shells a minute (depending on type). Even worse, many of those guns have sufficient ammunition available to maintain their maximum rate of fire for a solid day or two before needing resupply.

The amount of artillery fire that North Korea has available is enormous. I read an analysis a couple of years ago, which pointed out that North Korea could easily strike Seoul with more than four MILLION shells, using only its existing ammunition stocks, in a single 12 hour bombardment. It wouldn't actually take that much fire to accomplish the job though...most professional estimates say the city would be flat and the population decimated after only two hours.

They could wipe a modern city of 24 million people completely off the map while we're still sitting here trying to figure out where to shift troops from. Short of an instant nuclear blanket bombardment of the entire North Korean border region, there is absolutely no way we could defend Seoul or save the city from destruction.

As one astute "two tours in Korea" veteran relative pointed out to me once, the purpose of the American soldiers in Korea isn't to defend the country, because it's not possible. Their purpose is to die quickly in an attack, which should piss America off enough to reinstate the draft and get some real troop numbers back into the country. They're stationed in Seoul as sacrificial offerings.

My co-worker just got back from that wonderful reserve duty tour.

I'd imagine that things have gotten rusty and unstable after almost a century.

This is like the arguments that we heard about Iraq circa 1990 and early 2003. NK is a third world nation whose bark is much larger than their bite. Also, I'd like to think that the trillions that we've spent on defense coupled with the trillions that SK has spent upgrading their military can overcome WWI technology.

It's WWI-level of technology. Even if it was from WWI, maintaining artillery is simply a matter of keeping it oiled and clean, something a million-man army is probably able to handle. The difference between Iraq and NK is that Seoul is in range of that WWI-era technology. If Iraq wanted to reach out and touch someone, they needed far more expensive and complicated missiles like Scuds.

And a good chunk of that military spending of ours has been on...yup, artillery. Bigger, better, faster artillery. Why? Because if you can get it where you need it, there is no defense. Sure, once they start shooting, we can bomb them all to the moon, and the ROK has enough counter-batteries to take them out pretty quickly even if we don't, but against that first wave, there's nothing we can do except get ready to bag bodies. Once shells are up, they are going to come down.

Read my post upthread. Less than 300 seconds after a declaration of war, more than six thousand artillery shells would strike Seoul alone. Every one of those artillery pieces will then continue to fire 1-5 shells per minute until their supplies are exhausted.

Artillery shells are "old tech", but they rely on one of the most undefeatable principles around...the laws of physics. Once the projectile clears the end of the gun, there isn't a human technology in existence that can bend the laws of physics and stop it from hitting something.

The only way to stop artillery is to blow it up before it can fire again. NK has spent a half century burying its artillery inside of hardened concrete bunkers, so only precision airstrikes can take it out. We certainly have the technology to destroy them, but how many days or weeks would it take for us to find and hit them all? Iraq had them sitting out in the sand where they could be hit by any jet or helicopter. NK will require bunker busters and precision weaponry. We absolutely WOULD beat them, but the process would be slow.

And, in the meantime, they're pounding South Korea with more than 13,000 shells per minute all along the border region. We've been there before. We fought that war. It was called WWI. You can look up the photos and see what northern France looked like afterward. Imagine that kind of destruction raining down on this:

A Christian Science Monitor article about this issue came a out a few years ago. The 250,000 number is used originally was the number of shells that could hit withing a short time period.

They can literally light Seoul on fire, and crumble most buildings, withing minutes. It is the largest concentration of conventional firepower in the World as far as I can see.

No thanks. NK can obliterate Seoul with conventional arms within minutes.

People that have never humped it, don't understand what it takes for the average GI on the ground.. It is not all high tech. It is filling sand bags and digging holes..This is not the desert where everything is done out of a Humvee or an APC. This terrain is more like Afghanistan and not against civilians as we are in Afghanistan..They have a million man force and we are strapped with two hundred thousand already engaged..

In 1950 the American troops in South Korea were occupation troops, and poorly trained. The attack by North Korea came as a complete surprise, both strategic and tactical. Even so, the NK army was rapidly pushed back from their initial success. The only thing that saved North Korea from being lost to the Communist side was China pouring in a huge army.

You are also ignoring the ROK army, and acting as if they didn't exist.

NK does have a huge army, but it is half-starved. NK is again entering a famine and they are actually having people die of starvation. A starving nation is not able to support an agressive army.

Further, the NK military is very poorly trained. They don't have the money that it takes to train a soldier, even less a pilot. As a former soldier, you should realize that the level of training that a soldier has is what makes the difference between a competent warrior and a mere civilian wearing a uniform with a rifle.

But my guess is they are playing a dangerous game -- trying to ratchet up tensions to the point where they finally get bilateral talks with the US and some sort of security guarantee but at the same time stopping short of war -- which would result in a serious ass-kicking and probably the final collapse of the regime and the beginnings of the reunification process under southern tutelage. While I certainly don't hope for war, it would be nice to see the N. Korean regime pass into history sooner rather than later. Unfortunately I don't see that happening by peaceful means.

I've seen a photo of an intace crankshaft, with an intact propeller sitting in a glass case. There is a so called serial number on the pillow block written in magic marker.


This so called "Evidence" is so weak, that nobody but the US and South Korea, are running with it.

The fact of the matter is that the Economic collapse of the U.S. is directly bringing down the export based South Korean economy, and nothing like a good war to divert atytention from the now unemployed consumers in South Korea.

Wake up you wartime cheerleaders, you are being led by the nose directly into another Iraq, Vietnam, or whatever you want to call it.

As far as North Korea goes, do you really think a nation that has endured such austerity for the past 60 years is unable to endure a "Global" economic crisis, considering that it had been virtually excluded from the Bubble economy?

Wake up idiots. Your propaganda spoon feeders and chest thumping nationalist cheerleaders are whipping up support for another war, and you are going to pay dearly for it.

I certainly am not going to pay for it.

I see all this as a power struggle within North Korea to decide their future leadership.

:banghead:

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-Pacific/2010/0603/At-polls-South-Korea-conservatives-pay-for-response-to-Cheonan-sinking

"City and provincial elections dealt a blow to the conservative government of South Korea President Lee Myung-bak. Many voters were unhappy with the strong response to the sinking of the Cheonan Navy vessel.

The conservative government of South Korea’s President Lee Myung-bak suffered a shocking setback in city and provincial elections seen as a referendum on policy toward North Korea and other issues.

Instead of denouncing North Korea for the attack, however, Democratic Party candidates criticized their government for retaliatory measures on trade and aid that have infuriated the North. In rallies, Internet postings, and television ads, they often posed the question, “Do you want war or do you want peace?”

The influence within the party of Mr.Chung, one of Korea’s two or three richest men, also reflected another reason for the government’s falling popularity, namely, its close ties to the conglomerates or chaebol that dominate the economy. President Lee in the 1970s rose to chairman of Hyundai Engineering and Construction, then the country’s biggest builder, before going into politics.

“The rich-and-poor problem has turned very serious,” says Lee Chong-chang, a commentator and former ambassador. “The difference between rich and poor is not so acute as in the US, but Koreans are very much egalitarian.”

By creating a little war.

But the people don't want War, and that is very apparent.

Many of the pro war crown have never had "Boots on the Ground" experience, and have no clue what it takes to actually fight to win. While the ability to turn a battlefield into glass, there is a burdensome cost of ownership left on the shoulders of the one that actually vitrified and vaporized the battlefield...

For those whining he hasn't spent enough time on the oil spill - which I agree is huge and he must keep control of. But my gosh the items this president has to deal with just lately.

Besides the oil spill and this we have:

The Israel Gaza flotilla crisis.

The meltdown of the economy in Greece and nervousness about European economy spreading.

The continued unemployment here and our economy not exactly being strong. Just look at the stock market recently.

Afghanistan and the threat of domestic terrorism strikes from both within and without.

And our damn MSM seems to have tunnel vision as well with the majority of their focus on the oil spill and how it's affecting Obama's presidency.

..........Disappointed is too weak a word for the way I feel about Obama. Unless he does an about face, I'm staying home in 2012 and I'm sure a lot of others that voted for him feel the same. Nice speeches and a picturesque family does not make a great President.

of Palin, Jindal or one of the other idiot Repukes. Same people who decry the oil spill while saying Drill Baby Drill and Drill Deep Water and Off Shore

This meme has become so tired.

Sorry, the Politics Of Lesser Of Two Evils, and Fear The Alternative doesn't cut it anymore.

It is becoming quite apparent to me that many Americans don't want real change.

They want a Football Team they can cheer for to give the illusion of change, as long as it is the Football Team they perceive will be less abusive than the other.

Choosing the lesser of two Serfdoms, if you will, but still choosing Serfdom, while ignoring the fact that NEITHER side is on OUR Side (We The People) and neither side is providing Representative Government.

Now, cue the Insults, Name-Calling, and how much I want "Insert meme here" to fail. :eyes:

of two evils.

Yeah Obama is not perfect. Lord knows the Democrats are not perfect. But they are damn far better than what the hell we had from Jan 2001 to Jan 2009.

But idealists like you will sit home in 2010 & 2012 or vote for the candidate with no chance in hell just so you can puff up your own ego and rail against the rest of us who do make the choice of knowing the only option we have at the moment is voting for the lesser of two evils while working to get better candidates with the chance to win.

I know this country would've been damn better off with Gore in 2000 but we had enough numbnuts in Florida who just had to vote for Nader.

it does not change the fundamental circumstances we find ourselves in as a country.

By your own admission, you yourself seem to see the failed system for what it is, yet you choose to be a "Go-Along" because we "have no choice." And that mentality is part of the REASON that Candidates who would actually bring about Real Change have no chance of winning, as you point out.

You aren't interested in change, you're interested in having your Football Team running things so you have the ILLUSION of change, so you can feel good, and pretend that we still actually have a choice.

And I voted for Gore in 2000, so I will ignore your amusing attempt at character analyzation. That election was stolen, by the way, a fact you seem to conveniently omit.

As for what we went through, from 2001-2008, it's all very well documented on this Site. The country was for all intents and purposes a Dictatorship. And since the Election in '08, how exactly are things that much different?

We still have two never-ending wars that are expanding, not ending, no matter what bread And Circuses and Illusions to the effect they are showing you.

There are potentially even more on the horizon, including Iran.

All of the Constitution Trampling Legislation from the previous Dictatorship, Including The Patriot Act and Domestic Spying are still there.

NONE of the criminals form the previous Dictatorship have been held accountable for ANYTHING. (Oh, I know, we have to "Move Forward", and be "bi-partisan")

The Economy is still in shambles, but through a relentless Propaganda Campaign and Cooked Data they have given you the Illusion of Recovery, so I guess that's better than nothing, right?

There is no Change.

And I know, just like you, what will happen if and when the other side gets power again. I have no illusions about that, and like you, I do not wish it to come to pass.

But don't tell me to "lie back and enjoy it", and demand that I have the same magical rationalization you do, and accept that as change.

I also have no illusions that if the Bad Cop gets back in power, what passes for our so-called "leadership", just like last time, at worst, will be completely complicit, and at best, roll over like jellyfish and do nothing to stop them.

This country is in the death grip of hypnotic haze of an unbreakable Stockholm Syndrome that seems to comprise of "Please, just don't beat me anymore, I'll Go-Along with whatever and be a Good Little Citizen." And until we break ourselves of it, there will be no meaningful, fundamental change.

And people like you will continue to insult and attack "idealists" like me, whose only crime is wanting Representative Government, and not to be Ruled and Owned.

It has nothing to do with egos or agendas. That's your own magical rationalization to make the shit sandwich taste better.

Sorry, not interested.

Good Day. :)

.......by numerous accounts that Nader played virtually no role in the Gore "defeat". The Republican party operatives, his brother and Miss Ugly the SOS (can't remember her name now), the "caging" lists and mainly the Supreme court. I personally believe that Nader is the most UNDERestimated "patriots" of our time. But continue believing in Nader fucking Gore out of the Presidency and little green elves and that Obama is a "pragmatic" liberal.

..........anymore. Twenty years ago there was a difference (although closing fast to what we have today) between are (only) two parties, not a hell of a lot, but some difference. Today, the Dems are (overall) only marginally better than the (overall) Republicans. At this stage we need to either magically transform our country to a multi party system (like most European nations) or we have what I like to call a two party dictatorship overwhelmingly serving the huge corporations. So yeah, I just might stay home and sit on my fucking ass in 2012.

A long "to-do" list is no excuse for dithering, shilly-shallying, capitulating, and a dismal performance on almost everything that matters most. The guy started the job with most of the country united behind him and he has done nothing but piss it away at every opportunity.

I'm assuming the US will join in on the side of the south.

How are we going to pull the troops together to fight this thing?

What a cluster. x(

I am inclined to think they would probably pull American troops back at least temporarily to allow for this to happen.

We'd attack NK through the air and sea, and they'd have nothing to stop us. Drones alone would level that country.

We have conventional weapons that could do as much damage if not more than nukes. If NK is dumb enough to start a war, they'd lose it pretty quickly.

Crippling a country with a modern infrastructure is easy.

Crippling a country where the civilians have nothing to lose is a lot harder.

to get us involved if anything breaks out, and is also a great profit generator for the "right" companies for more than 50 years now.

Truth is, if South Korea can't defend themselves with their huge manufacturing economy, then why should we? I haven't lost a thing there, and I would much rather have US troops safe and sound at home with their families than as hostages in a war of convenience that has just gotten old and stale.

Kill each other off. This has been tolerated way too long.

Kim may be insane but he's not stupid.

For that matter, which of his aides can even think that the "Great General Kim Jong-Il can possibly be wrong? They have had a lifetime of severe indoctination that "Dear Leader" can do no wrong. They have reached the state where they believe their own bullshit propaganda.

I took his photo this past weekend, riding in the San Louis Valley Colorado.

I did not think it very relevant till today.

........motherfucker Kim Jong Il. He's erratic as Dick Cheney.

Despiste all the tensions, the South does not want a resumption of shooting. Seoul would get flattened in a few hours. After that, SK would kick NK ass.

The SK military is large, well equipped, and well trained. The MK military is huge, half-starved, poorly trained, and equipped with obsolete weapons. For example, their Air Force still relies heavily on MiG-17s, 19s, and 21s. For those not familiar, the 17 was their mainstay in the first Korean war, while the 21 is Vietnam vintage. The 19 is from the late 50s. And NK pilots get very little actual flight time for training.

conditions are starting to brew for a perfect storm...what could be next?

seriously, it pisses me off massively that they'd take millions of starving people with them.

If NK has thousands of pieces of artillery & were to fire them at Seoul, you could almost expect for SK and or us to retaliate with nukes. They aren't going to get annihilated without landing a massive blow back to NK. War sucks, but it's either yourselves or them when it comes down to it.