STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday June 11

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday June 11, 2010

---

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

---

Handy Links - Market Data and News:Economic Calendar    Marketwatch Data    Bloomberg Economic News    Yahoo! Finance    Google Finance    Bank Tracker    
Credit Union Tracker    Daily Job Cuts

Handy Links - Economic Blogs:
The Big Picture    Financial Sense    Calculated Risk    Naked Capitalism    Credit Writedowns
Brad DeLong      Bonddad    Atrios    goldmansachs666    The Stand-Up Economist

Handy Links - Government Issues:
LegitGov    Open Government    Earmark Database    USA spending.gov

Handy Links - Videos:
The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class    Charlie Rose talks with Roubini    Charlie Rose talks with Krugman
    William Black: This Economic Disaster    Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

---

---

This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

08:30 Retail Sales May
Briefing.com 0.2%
Consensus 0.2%
Prior 0.4%

08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto May
Briefing.com -0.2%
Consensus 0.1%
Prior 0.4%

09:55 Mich Sentiment Jun
Briefing.com 74.5
Consensus 74.5
Prior 73.6

10:00 Business Inventories Apr
Briefing.com 0.5%
Consensus 0.5%
Prior 0.4%

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

WASHINGTON – Inventories held by businesses likely showed a fourth-consecutive monthly gain in April, which would be an encouraging sign for future economic growth.

Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect inventories held on shelves and backlots grew by 0.5 percent in April following a 0.4 percent rise in March. The Commerce Department will release the inventory report at 10 a.m. EDT Friday.

Earlier this week, the government reported that inventories at the wholesale level increase 0.4 percent last month as wholesale sales rose by 0.7 percent.

The hope is that a steady rise in demand will prompt businesses to step up orders and restock depleted shelves. That would give a boost to factories and prompt them to increase hiring.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100611/ap_on_bi_ge/us_business_inventories_ahead_of_the_bell

---

Inventory increases are normal during seasonal transitions. Check back in six weeks to gauge the levels of wholesale inventories.

But the markets are looking forward 90-120 nanoseconds.

NPR carried a story about HFT's now accounting for 60% of all trades on the NYSE. A penny here and there a few million times a day, simply stealing wealth from 401K/403B managers. This is nothing new, we've known the squid and others have been gaming the system.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124890969888291807.html

What I was not aware of is that all trades are now going to be routed through a single facility, and the HFT servers are going to be housed in the same structure, hard wired into the system. :grr: THIS IS JUST SO WRONG!

it's just now the system is rigged to squeeze out more from the small investors and institutional investors. I listened to the report yesterday and I got the impression that the government braking system is inadequate.

Retail sales plunged in May by the largest amount in eight months as Americans slashed spending on everything from cars to clothing. The big drop raises new worries about the durability of the economic recovery.

Spending fell 1.2 percent last month, the Commerce Department said Friday. Auto sales were down 1.7 percent but there was weakness in a number of areas. Excluding autos, sales fell 1.1 percent.

The big decline cast new doubts about the strength of the economic recovery. Consumer spending accounts for 70 percent of total economic activity. Economists are concerned that households will start trimming outlays as they continued to be battered by high unemployment and a swoon in stock prices.

Investors have sold off stocks for more than a month because of concerns that Europe's sovereign debt crisis will slow a worldwide economic rebound. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 7.9 percent last month, the worst May for the blue chip index since 1940.

Pulling down the overall number was a 9.3 percent plunge in building materials. That follows the expiration of a tax credit for homebuyers in April that spurred home sales.

http://www.mail.com/Article.aspx/money/financial/APNews/Financial-News/20100611/U_US-Economy?pageid=1

BANGKOK – Oil prices hovered near $75 a barrel Friday in Asia after a big jump the day before as China's booming trade and lower U.S. jobless claims lifted stock markets and confidence in the global economic recovery.

China reported exports and imports rose nearly 50 percent each in May, reassuring investors that the country's economy was not being slowed significantly by Europe's debt problems.

The International Energy Agency on Thursday raised its forecasts for global oil demand this year, citing stronger than expected economic activity in developed economies. The IEA, based in Paris, boosted its estimate by 60,000 barrels to 86.4 million barrels a day. That's a 2 percent increase from 2009.

In other Nymex trading in July contracts, heating oil fell 0.31 cent to $2.0297 a gallon while gasoline was little changed at $2.07 a gallon. Natural gas gained 5.4 cents to $4.701 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

economy is improving my @#$%!

There was a pathetic level of non-governmental job creation reported last week. Then we have an "improving" initial unemployment claims number reported yesterday. The UI claims still reside in the area far above the line of what can be fairly termed "catastrophic". And yet - this is called an improvement.

That right there is evolution in action.

"Less bad" is the "new good" since 2007.

BTW - you mention "evolution". I am about to finish Mark Sumner's book, The Evolution of Everything. It is a fun and fascinating read.

Thanks for that.

"It tastes like that little puddle of sweat that accumulates on your butt crack."

Inspired!

"You're not mad enough to not drive your car."



TG

I spent a lot of time at the Lynx website (public bus system in Orlando) and my best option for taking the bus from where I live now to downtown is a nearly 3-hour ride costing about $4 each way. Gets me to work 90 min. after I'm supposed to be here and I have to leave 30 min. before I'm supposed to leave to catch a 3hr bus ride home.


uhhhh.....



*sigh*


What I'm going to focus on is buying less petroleum-based products overall. No more plastic cups or plates, buy used when I can, properly rotate my tires so they last longer, no more disposable forks/spoons, no more plastic bags at the grocery store, etc.

Friend of mine sent me a link to rechargeable lawn mowers on Amazon...can get a solar-powered recharger, too. I'm all over that for after we move into the house (no closing date set yet).

all you smell is the fragrance of freshly cut grass. You'll love it.

Your neighbors won't hate you for mowing the lawn at 8 AM on a Saturday. They'll barely hear you.

electric car - then he's going to build 2 small wind turbines to charge the batteries - next year, he plans to build (oh my) another one.

How smart and ambitious your child is! :hi:

get coins together to buy parts - he works on computers and gets paid and he has a jar - that's where we put all our extra pennies :)

uia

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2AAa0gd7ClM

throwing humor and satire into an unlivable and horrible travesty.

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/17390/111965?RS_show_page=0

This administration is far more captured and incompetent than my cynical little mind believed.

They were REQUIRED by their own rules to take over the spill response, and they refused to do it.

"It's like having a drunk driving accident, and then letting the drunk perform the investigation for the police". NOAA has undermined their previous good scientific reputation.

The Gulf as we know it and the coastline is dead. And that's probably an understatement.

It's as though, in many significant ways, the Bush administration never left. Cheney's moles, his stay-behinds, just keep doing their jobs with no evidence that they're being sidelined for incompetence.

Statements like that can attract the attention of, ahem, the authorities.


TG

A conservative friend of mine has family/friends who worked in the Bush/Cheney junta who'd thought they'd be out of a job when Obama took over. Instead, they all have been recently asked to stay on!!

Words simply escape me at this point.

It really is the third term.

1) Before Bush left, he gave many of his apparatchiks career jobs, embedding them in the system. Hard to fire.

2) The Senate is still refusing to approve many Obama appointees. The Republicans issued a blanket filibuster to them, even to ones they actually like. A few have gotten past cloture and been voted in by nearly unanimous votes, like 98-0, or 94-2. There was a video awhile back of Sen. Franken complaining about this abuse of process. Sorry, I don't have the link.

Okay, the third reason is Obama not doing his job forcefully enough.

Salazar should be out on his ass and Obama is vulnerable in a big way.

Obama has protectors--of course, what his Praetorian guard is protecting him from, and what with, and why, and why he puts up with all this protection, is another thing.

WASHINGTON (AFP) – The US Treasury Department said Thursday there would be no initial public offering of government-rescued automaker General Motors before October.

The Treasury provided about 50 billion dollars in financing to GM and owns 60.8 percent of the common stock after the leading US automaker emerged from a government-supported bankruptcy reorganization a year ago.

The initial public offering will be "a significant step" in carrying out Treasury's previously announced intention of disposing of its investments under the 700-billion-dollar Troubled Asset Relief Program, the department said.

The Treasury said the IPO was expected to include the sale of shares owned by Treasury, GM and other shareholders.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100610/ts_alt_afp/usgovernmentautocompanyipogm

and they expect everyone's gone away for the summer, anyway.

Should be $0.00. This is the part of GM that will go away. It seems some investors are still not getting this.

I really think something has to be done about the Supreme Court. And we have seen twice already that Obama isn't man enough to do it (I suspect he's Borg, like Roberts--a corporate slave).

NEW YORK – Stock futures edged higher Friday as investors make modest bets that another round of economic reports will show continued domestic growth.

Movements could be tempered because stocks surged a day earlier. Stocks have been unable to muster a prolonged run of gains in recent weeks as volatility has returned to the market.

Economists expect reports Friday will show retail sales rose modestly in May while business inventories climbed in April. A third report is expected to show consumer sentiment is improving as Americans gain confidence that the economy is strengthening.

The Commerce Department is expected to report retail sales rose 0.2 percent in May, according to economists polled by Thomson Reuters. While it would be another slow month of growth, it still shows sales are climbing. A jump in sales is vital to a sustained recovery because consumer spending is a primary driver of economic growth. The report is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100611/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/us_wall_street

BP PLC is considering deferring or reducing its second-quarter dividend to help quell the political uproar in America, as the U.S. government raised its estimate of the oil gushing out of the company's crippled well in the Gulf of Mexico.

The British government, meanwhile, came to the defense of the battered oil giant, talking up the economic value of BP on both sides of the Atlantic.

Among the options the BP board of directors could consider is cutting or deferring the second-quarter dividend that is due to be announced July 27, or paying all or part of it in "scrip," effectively an I.O.U. to shareholders. "We are considering all options on the dividend. But no decision has been made," BP Chief Executive Tony Hayward said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal Thursday.

President Obama's irritation over the dividend surfaced last Friday, when he raised BP's $50 million public-relations advertising campaign and the company's $10.5 billion annual dividend.

Tensions escalated sharply on Wednesday when the U.S. Interior Secretary, Ken Salazar, said he would demand that BP pay the lost wages of oil workers in the Gulf region idled because of the administration's order to halt new deepwater drilling for six months. That demand could add hundreds of millions of dollars to BP's obligations.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704312104575297841925243062.html?mod=WSJINDIA_hpp_LEFTTopWhatNews

From Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism:

As readers may know, I’ve been consistently disappointed by the Obama Administration: its faux progressive packaging versus its corporatist posture, its half-hearted, halting reforms which are noisily trumpeted as the real thing, its deep seated belief that public antipathy to its initiatives means it needs to work harder on selling its message, when it really needs a new strategy.

But the escalating disaster of the Gulf oil spill, and the unique constellation it presents, namely, a big, rich, isolated, foreign perp, which is largely if not solely responsible for the mess, in close proximity to contested mid-term elections, might actually rouse Obama to do something uncharacteristic, namely get tough.

This is by no means a likely outcome, but we are seeing some novel behaviors. First is that Obama finally may have succeeded in getting someone important afraid of him. This is a critically important lesson; Machiavelli told his prince it was much more important to be feared than loved. Mere anger is often negotiation posturing or a manifestation of CEO Derangement Syndrome; fear is much harder to fake. And BP is finally starting to get rattled. Per the Wall Street Journal:

Mr. Hayward immediately canceled an employee town hall meeting and a trip to review clean-up on the Louisiana coast, and gathered his visibly shaken executives at the crisis center in Houston. At a top management call between Houston and London to review its “Sub-sea and Surface” agenda, the top item on “Surface” issues suddenly became “Washington politics.”

“This demand is chilling,” said one executive in the meeting. “The administration keeps pushing the boundaries on what we are responsible for.”

But this is a vastly bigger leak, and most important, the Gulf is not Alaska. The visibility is vastly higher, more people are affected, as are more governors, senators, and representatives. And Obama appears to be laying the groundwork to demand that BP pay not just cleanup costs, but the full cost of the damage wrought. From an economic standpoint, this is sound: the problem with “externalities” or costs of a product that are foisted on innocent bystanders is that the people who suffer seldom can recover their losses.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/06/bp-is-team-obama-pushing-for-a-full-externalities-precedent.html

---

Evidence of a shift in Obama's tact is exhibited in BP's new demeanor. Why so suddenly worried, Tony?

they have no idea what this disaster will cost them. Luckily I don't hold stock in BP or oil companies. Too dirty, too risky, too imprudent.

Next weekend is father's day, but what about this one? Flag Day? I've found the obsession over a bit of cloth quaint when not deeply disturbing...especially when the Constitution is sent to the shredder without protest.

Maybe that's it! Constitution Weekend! Anybody think I'm NOT weird? And we'll need some talent to go along with it. Name your neglected artist or humorist now!

It's a good time to see All That Glitters -or- Baby It's Gold Outside

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOJKzDSsG0Q

More this evening...

That hits too close to home.

“Just between us,” it may be “stupid” to use certain words in e-mail to “discuss” the “big trouble” you might face if you’re ever investigated for financial wrongdoing or a subsequent cover-up.

Those are some of the terms that examiner Anton R. Valukas searched for in 34 million pages of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. e-mails and reports, to find out who knew what about the risks that drove the fourth-largest securities firm into bankruptcy, according to his 2,200-page study on the collapse.

Valukas concluded that former Chief Executive Officer Richard “Dick” Fuld certified misleading financial statements. Valukas also said former Lehman Chief Financial Officers Christopher O’Meara, Erin Callan and Ian Lowitt didn’t disclose a financing method called Repo 105 that hid as much as $50 billion of Lehman’s debt as its credit dried up.

“What investigators are looking for is any turn of phrase that can give them insight into what people were thinking at that time,” said Peter Henning, a former Securities and Exchange Commission lawyer who teaches at Wayne State University Law School in Detroit. “That can be valuable because e-mails are real-time and often unfiltered and can help to establish intent.”

Valukas, 67, whose key terms included “risk,” “concern,” “breach,” “big trouble” and “too late,” said Fuld was warned about rising business risks in early 2007, yet encouraged risk-taking until the next year. A March 2007 e-mail Fuld got from Michael Gelband, Lehman’s former head of capital markets, cites forecasts of a slowing economy by top money managers Stanley F. Druckenmiller of Duquesne Capital Management LLC and Paul Tudor Jones of Tudor Investment Corp.

http://preview.bloomberg.com/news/2010-06-11/lehman-probe-lesson-avoid-big-trouble-by-shunning-stupid-e-mail-terms.html

---

I can think of a few search terms. Something like "screw" and "shakedown", among others.

http://wallstreet.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2010/06/09/even-bernanke-cant-overlook-deficit-crisis/



Here's how dire the U.S. budget problem is: Even Ben Bernanke isn't downplaying it.

Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, spent years rationalizing the housing bubble. He infamously claimed the subprime mess was contained, just before it nearly overwhelmed the U.S. economy.

Would like Congress to wake up

But the unhappy implications of the U.S. budget deficit are so glaring that even Bernanke's blinders are no match.

The Fed chief said in testimony before the House budget committee Wednesday that "the federal budget appears to be on an unsustainable path." Not for the first time, he urged Congress to take action to close "a structural budget gap that is both large relative to the size of the economy and increasing over time."

The problem isn't just that the United States is on track to run a budget deficit worth a tenth of its economic output this year, or that the gap will close only gradually in coming years.

The bigger issue, Bernanke notes, is that the workforce isn't growing nearly fast enough to pay for all the people who stand to retire over the next two decades. This isn't a problem that can be dealt with via tax reform or federal spending cuts alone -- not that those are exactly coming fast and furious as it is.

There are currently five workers for every retiree in the country, Bernanke said. That stands to shrink to three workers by 2030 -- at a time when "expenditures on health care for both retirees and non-retirees have continued to rise rapidly as increases in the costs of care have exceeded increases in incomes."

That's not a workable formula, and Bernanke urged policymakers at the very least to work out some plans for restoring fiscal balance. The problem, as he surely knows, is that he and others have been sounding similar warnings for years, to little avail.

Indeed, Bernanke on Wednesday repeated a sentence he used in his testimony before the budget committee last June: "Unless we demonstrate a strong commitment to fiscal sustainability in the longer term, we will have neither financial stability nor healthy economic growth," he said.

Unfortunately, repetition doesn't count for much in this arena. Wonks with greater stature than Bernanke have been calling for the same sort of buckling down -- and remain pessimistic that Washington will act before it's too late.

Restoring the nation to fiscal health and dealing with other major challenges "will require a greater sense of common purpose and political consensus than has been evident in Washington or the country at large," former Fed chief Paul Volcker wrote last month.

Were the bond vigilantes to suddenly visit the Treasurys market, all hell could break loose in an economy that seems addicted to low interest rates. While the euro zone and Japan obviously have their problems, markets are nothing if not unpredictable.

Let's hope we never find ourselves toasting Bernanke as one of the guys who predicted the next crisis.

OF COURSE, CREATING GOOD PAYING JOBS FOR SLOBS ISN'T ON. WE'RE SAVING THOSE FOR MUFFY'S GRANDKIDS...

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSBAF00411920100609

WHAT'S HIS ANGLE? AVOIDING DEBT REPUDIATION? ETERNAL SLAVERY TO PAYING OFF UNSUSTAINABLE LOAN BURDENS?

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSBAF00411920100609

Europe must address a debt crisis and if a euro zone country is unable to repay its debts a managed restructuring could generate confidence in financial markets, the president of the World Bank said on Wednesday.

Global Markets

In a speech to German conservatives in Berlin, World Bank President Robert Zoellick noted that some people feared a restructuring for one country could set off a contagion that would make it harder for others to roll over debts.

"These are serious concerns. Yet investors' lack of confidence in debtors could lead them to back away for good, leaving more and more of the debts to be assumed by other European governments or the ECB," Zoellick said.

"The uncertainty about who will pay and how they will pay can exacerbate and spread fears -- sweeping along other countries, or banks, that would otherwise be able to manage given discipline and time," he added. "One needs to consider these issues carefully, case-by-case."

"If it becomes clear that a particular debtor cannot pay back its borrowings, a managed restructuring, combined with financial support, can create confidence that growth can be restored," he said in the text of remarks prepared for delivery.

Zoellick also said it was understandable that German citizens would object to bailing out other European countries that have been living beyond their means but he was confident Germany would make an integrated Europe work.

"Germany and Europe must address a debt crisis," he said.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,699986,00.html

Although it has not yet given a final ruling on the legality of the €750 billion European Union rescue package for the euro, Germany's Constitutional Court says it will not issue a temporary injunction on credit guarantees or aid. The court warned an injunction could create chaos on the markets...

MUCH MORE AT LINK

http://www.risk.net/credit/news/1653805/investors-concerned-german-banks-exposure-southern-europe

...The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) calculates that Greek debt accounts for 0.5% of total banking sector assets in Germany, slightly less than in France (0.8%). But if Portugal and Spain are taken into account, German banks have the highest concentration of exposures in Europe, amounting to $330.4 billion, or 10.1% of total banking sector assets.

“German bank balance sheets were already in trouble due to their subprime-related assets. If, on top of that, you get a hit on the sovereign debt on bank balance sheets, that could pose a problem for sure. How serious that would be, or how the government would deal with it is very uncertain. It’s a clear risk,” says Felix Hüfner, senior economist at the OECD in Paris....

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2010-06/10/c_13343337.htm

The People's Bank of China (PBOC), the central bank, injected 166 billion yuan (24.3 billion U.S. dollars) into the money market this week, easing tight money supply conditions with bill issuance and repurchase agreements.

In its regular open market operations Thursday, the central bank auctioned 10 billion yuan (1.46 billion U.S. dollars) of three-month bills at a yield of 1.5704 percent, up 4.04 basis points from June 3.

On Thursday, the central bank also conducted repurchase agreement operations -- the first time in almost a month -- by absorbing 10 billion yuan through 91-day repurchase agreements. The yield on Thursday's 91-day repurchase agreement rose to 1.57 percent, up 16 basis points from its previous repurchase operation.

Thursday's operations together with Tuesday's 25 billion yuan worth of one-year bill issuance brought the weekly total raised to 45 billion yuan (6.6 billion U.S. dollars). But 211 billion yuan (30.9 billion U.S. dollars) of bills matured this week, meaning a net weekly injection of cash.

The central bank's net injection this week was the third straight week of net injection. It pumped 159 billion yuan (23.3 billion U.S. dollars) into the market in the previous two weeks.

Since mid-May, China's banks have faced a short-term money squeeze as the PBOC introduced a series of tightening measures to cool the booming property sector.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2010-06/11/content_9965743.htm

China's consumer price index (CPI), a major gauge of inflation, increased by 3.1 percent year on year in May, figures from the National Bureau of Statistics show.

The figure dropped 0.1 percent on a month-on-month basis.

Factory price of industrial goods increased by 7.1 percent in May from the same period last year, with the factory price of producer goods increasing by 8.8 percent and the price of raw materials and fuel rising 12.2 percent.

In addition, the total volume of retail sales of consumer goods in May grew by 18.7 percent.

Figures also show that from January to May, property investments increased by 38.2 percent, and urban fixed asset investments rose by 25.9 percent, a 0.2 percent drop from the figure for the January to April period.

Industrial added value rose 16.5 percent last month compared with the same period last year, up 7.6 percentage points from the growth rate of May 2009.

China consumer prices up 3.1%, breaching Beijing's target

Consumer price rose 3.1% in May from a year earlier, while wholesale prices rose 7.1%, according to figures from the National Bureau of Statistics. The results exceeded expectations for a 3% rise in CPI and a 6.9% gain in PPI, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey.

The CPI is now exceeding the 3% ceiling of the government's targeted inflation range.

However, some analysts expressed doubt the CPI figures would prompt a major tightening response from Beijing, as softening food prices in May suggests some inflationary pressures may be about reach a high-water mark in the next few months.

On the other side of the argument, other analysts pointed to monetary data as showing inflation is, in fact, a threat.

Money supply as measured by M1 rose 29.9%, easing from April's 31.3%, while the broader M2 metric was up 21%, easing from 21.5% in April, according to data Friday.

RBC Capital Markets analysts said the money supply data indicated cash was moving from longer-term deposits and into those of the shortest duration, raising risks that inflationary pressures could continue to heat up.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-consumer-prices-up-31-breaching-target-2010-06-10

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE65A07V20100611

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner indicated U.S. patience on China's currency policy was wearing thin on Thursday as a key lawmaker warned that he would move soon on legislation that would penalize Chinese goods.

Striking his toughest tone on the yuan since delaying a decision in early April on whether to name China a currency manipulator, Geithner told a U.S. Senate hearing Chinese policies had a harmful worldwide impact.

"The distortions caused by China's exchange rate spread far beyond China's borders and are an impediment to the global rebalancing we need," Geithner said.

Echoing a refrain he has used since April, he said Beijing would find it in its own interest to have a more flexible yuan, also known as the renminbi.

"A stronger renminbi would benefit China because it would boost the purchasing power of households and encourage firms to shift production for domestic demand, rather than for export," he told the Senate Finance Committee.

U.S. lawmakers, many of whom face re-election in November, believe an undervalued yuan subsidizes Chinese exports at the expense of American competitors. With the U.S. unemployment rate hovering just below 10 percent, many demand action.

"The time is long past for any Treasury Department to admit publicly what everyone else already knows, that China is manipulating the value of its currency in order to gain an unfair advantage in international trade," said Charles Grassley, the senior Republican Senator on the committee.

Democratic Senator Charles Schumer told Geithner to "be prepared" because lawmakers would move forward soon with legislation that would slap anti-dumping penalties and countervailing duties on goods from China and other countries with a "fundamentally misaligned" currency.

BACK TO 2005

After partly freeing its currency to rise gradually from mid-2005 to mid-2008, China repegged the yuan to the dollar at a rate that U.S. lawmakers and some economists say is as much as 40 percent below the actual value.

"The level of undervaluation is back to where it was in 2005. We have not made progress," said Schumer.

Under sharp criticism, Geithner acknowledged that he did not know when China would allow the yuan to rise again.

"I, to be honest, do not know whether we're at the point now when we're going to see meaningful progress in the near term," he said.

Two opportunities for the Chinese to move on the currency -- the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue in May and the Group of 20 Finance Ministers meeting in South Korea last week -- passed without any action.

The deepening of Europe's debt crisis since April has severely weakened the euro, causing markets to dampen expectations of a yuan shift any time soon.

But new Chinese data released on Thursday showed a robust 48.5 percent jump in exports in May, putting pressure on U.S. President Barack Obama to placate critics. Chinese imports almost rose by nearly as big a margin.

Dollar/yuan offshore forwards reversed earlier rises to fall late on Thursday, implying more yuan appreciation in future. But dealers said there was not a solid uptrend for the yuan for now.

NO MORE GOOD COP?

Geithner, who in April delayed a much-anticipated Treasury report on whether Beijing manipulates the value of its yuan, said he would "take stock" of the currency report after the G20 leaders summit in Canada later this month.

Schumer's pressure and broad anti-China sentiment in Congress might help persuade Beijing to move, he said.

"I'm saying that it's important for China to understand that Congress will act if China does not act," added Geithner.

Geithner "played less of a good cop than before" in the face of mounting congressional impatience, said economist Derek Scissors of the Heritage Foundation, a Washington think tank.

"The Chinese need to understand that the closer we get to September, the more likely we are to actually get this legislation passed by Congress," he said, referring to lawmaker's calculations ahead of November elections.

Currency and trade are just one flashpoint in the difficult U.S.-China relationship. Ties were strained this year over human rights, Tibet and U.S. weapons sales to Taiwan.

But Washington won Chinese support for new U.N. sanctions on Iran and has turned to China to help rein in North Korea after a series of provocative actions by Pyongyang.

Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus said the United States appeared to be withholding criticism of Chinese economic policies in order to enlist Beijing's geopolitical support and should consider "de-linking" the two areas.

"We no longer have the luxury of pursuing failed approaches," said "We must rethink the U.S.-China economic relationship. We must act, not just talk."

Baucus (D-Dummy) says "We no longer have the luxury of pursuing failed approaches," said "We must rethink the U.S.-China economic relationship. We must act, not just talk."

Does he really believe that we are in a position to punish China? Really? China is now essential in supporting our national debt. China is the only country among the big three who are capable of feeding the $2 billion daily capital infusion needed to maintain the status-quo. The other two floaters of U.S. debt, Great Britain and Japan, are suffering calamitous deficits themselves and cannot be viewed as reliable sources of revenue.

So who really thinks China will just nod an go along with anything our elected and appointed talking heads say? To pester China with breathy insistence to change their economic policies is a fool's errand.

China is an elephant, the USA is a gnat on the elephant's ass. We have been slowly killing everything that made us great (education, manufacturing, the middle class, freedom). I realized China had come of age when I saw all the work that went into the Olympics. Compared to China-we are a shriveled up gnat on an elephant's ass.

"Potomac" supposedly means "trading place."....An alternative interpretation for Potomac has more spice to it, however. One translation has Potomac meaning "the place to which tribute is brought," in reference to reported contributions provided to the Iroquois, so they would stay away from the Algonkian settlements. On April 15, wouldn't you prefer that, for the river that runs past the headquarters of the Internal Revenue Service?

http://www.virginiaplaces.org/watersheds/3names.html

Origin: < Algonquian; meaning unknown

http://www.yourdictionary.com/potomac

S&P 500 1,074 -5.90 -0.55%
DOW 10,041 -46.00 -0.46%
NASDAQ 1,812 -9.50 -0.52%

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -11.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -21.30. A tepid tone in the wake of a strong performance during the prior session has worsened in the wake of a disappointing retail sales report for May. Total retail sales saw their worst slide since September 2009, while sales less autos had their worst drop since March 2009. Both came in the face of a consensus that called for an increase. A retreat by the euro hasn't helped the tone of premarket trade either. The euro had initially extended its recent run against the greenback, but it is now down nearly 0.3% to $1.209. Coming up is the preliminary Consumer Confidence Survey for June from University of Michigan (9:55 AM ET). Business inventory data for April follows (10:00 AM ET). Market participants will take most of their early cues from the reports, given the lack of corporate news flow.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -11.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -22.10. Sellers have redoubled their efforts to send U.S. stock futures to morning lows. The weakened tone has imbued action in Europe, where Germany's DAX is now down 0.6% amid weakness in consumer goods stocks (-1.3%), health care stocks (-1.0%), and industrial stocks (-1.0%). Consumer services plays (+0.9%) have provided support, though. France's CAC was up more than 1%, but that has been cut to a 0.3% gain. Still, there is strength in bank stocks (+4.5%). Banking plays have benefited from comments from officials of Banco Santandar (STD) that the crisis in Spain has been blown out of proportion and that the Spanish bank will maintain its dividend. Spain's bank stocks (+6.1%) have lifted the IBEX to a 3.0% gain.

9:30
Dow 10,110.33 62.20 (0.61%)
Nasdaq 2,197.15 21.56 (0.97%)
S&P 500 1,080.53 6.31 (0.58%)
10-Yr Bond 3.26% 0.57

(Up a little. Good day.)

(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,577,892,793,467.92 + 4,468,255,822,302.87
UP 374,218,915.72 + DOWN 11,182,652,598.35

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,231.64 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.69, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,440,485 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $42,160.45.
A family of three owes $126,481.34. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 33 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 5,327,608,688.24.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,906,913,038.04.
The average for the last 33 days would be 3,551,739,125.49.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 172 reports in 252 days of FY2010 averaging 6.61B$ per report, 4.51B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 956 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.4 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
06/09/2010 13,046,148,615,770.79 BHO (UP 2,419,271,566,857.71 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,136,319,612,259.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,645,859,755,851.33 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
05/19/2010 +000,208,812,715.15 ------------********
05/20/2010 +010,103,129,083.31 ------------**********
05/21/2010 +000,263,393,058.28 ------------********
05/24/2010 +000,371,674,396.55 ------------******** Mon
05/25/2010 +000,937,216,055.27 ------------********
05/26/2010 +001,057,190,066.84 ------------*********
05/27/2010 +015,241,764,354.27 ------------**********
05/28/2010 -000,294,414,430.12 ---
06/01/2010 +078,359,726,143.31 ------------********** Tue
06/02/2010 +000,523,171,733.61 ------------********
06/03/2010 +004,027,515,403.86 ------------*********
06/04/2010 +000,194,136,067.09 ------------********
06/07/2010 +000,055,958,918.33 ------------******* Mon
06/08/2010 -000,061,366,300.19 ----
06/09/2010 +000,374,218,915.72 ------------********

111,362,126,181.28 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4421079&mesg_id=4421390

(Down some. Good day.)

(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,572,105,359,213.03 + 4,469,299,984,760.41
DOWN 5,787,434,254.89 + UP 1,044,162,457.54

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,231.57 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.69, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,447,131 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $42,144.21.
A family of three owes $126,432.63. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 5,209,993,918.20.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,820,662,206.68.
The average for the last 31 days would be 3,697,415,038.73.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 173 reports in 253 days of FY2010 averaging 6.54B$ per report, 4.47B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 955 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.4 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
06/10/2010 13,041,405,343,973.44 BHO (UP 2,414,528,295,060.36 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,131,576,340,461.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,632,511,321,219.45 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
05/20/2010 +010,103,129,083.31 ------------**********
05/21/2010 +000,263,393,058.28 ------------********
05/24/2010 +000,371,674,396.55 ------------******** Mon
05/25/2010 +000,937,216,055.27 ------------********
05/26/2010 +001,057,190,066.84 ------------*********
05/27/2010 +015,241,764,354.27 ------------**********
05/28/2010 -000,294,414,430.12 ---
06/01/2010 +078,359,726,143.31 ------------********** Tue
06/02/2010 +000,523,171,733.61 ------------********
06/03/2010 +004,027,515,403.86 ------------*********
06/04/2010 +000,194,136,067.09 ------------********
06/07/2010 +000,055,958,918.33 ------------******* Mon
06/08/2010 -000,061,366,300.19 ----
06/09/2010 +000,374,218,915.72 ------------********
06/10/2010 -005,787,434,254.89 --

105,365,879,211.24 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4422466&mesg_id=4422685