STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday June 29

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday June 29, 2010

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Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Handy Links - Market Data and News:Economic Calendar    Marketwatch Data    Bloomberg Economic News    Yahoo! Finance    Google Finance    Bank Tracker    
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Handy Links - Economic Blogs:
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Handy Links - Government Issues:
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Handy Links - Videos:
The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class    Charlie Rose talks with Roubini    Charlie Rose talks with Krugman
    William Black: This Economic Disaster    Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

09:00 Case-Shiller 20-city Index Apr
Briefing.com 3.0%
Consensus 3.4%
Prior 2.3%

10:00 Consumer Confidence Jun
Briefing.com 63.5
Consensus 62.0
Prior 63.3

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

09:00 Case-Shiller 20-city Index Apr
Actual 3.81%
Prior 2.35%

SINGAPORE – Oil prices tumbled below $77 a barrel Tuesday in Asia on signs Tropical Storm Alex would likely miss most of the rigs in the Gulf of Mexico, leaving supplies undisrupted.

Alex gained strength and appeared on track to become a hurricane Tuesday before it makes landfall very near the Mexico-U.S. border sometime late Wednesday, said the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida.

The tropical storm's center wasn't expected to approach BP's massive oil spill off Louisiana's coast or the other major crude installations in the area, the center said.

In other Nymex trading in July contracts, heating oil fell 2.84 cents to $2.0649 a gallon, gasoline dropped 3.05 cents to $2.1071 a gallon and natural gas was down 1.8 cents at $4.715 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

This thread gets quite a bit of attention due to its unusual nature in that it acts like a daily economic and stock issues forum. So that we do not get in trouble - please review the DU rules.

I know this is an unusual request. It is very important that we bear in mind the rules so that posts are not deleted. Or in the worst scenario - this thread is either locked or posting privileges in LBN are revoked. Thank you very much.


http://www.democraticunderground.com/forums/rules.html

For posting the DU Rules reminder.
I'd hate to have anything happen to the daily SMW. There are far too many enjoyable and knowledgeable people that post here.
hamerfan

And good morning. :donut: :donut: :donut:

according to rule #4....

Do I have to take back everything I said about...

1) Obama's lack of coherent economic policy, real banking reform, true WS reform, criminal prosecutions of swindlers and white collar corporate thieves and overlords, and half backed health care reforms.

2) Alan 'Greenscum' Greenspan

3) Timothy 'Baby Cakes' Geithner

4) Larry 'Strings' Summer

5) Jack 'Hatchet' Welch

6) Maria 'Knee Pads' Bartiromo.

OK, I will. But I meant everything I said about Elizabeth Warren and Helen Thomas and I refuse to take THAT back.



I'll go back to my corner now and wash out my mouth with soap. Any one have some mental floss they can lend me. Golly gee whiz!

Remember the last sentence in Rule #4:

A thick skin is necessary to participate on this or any other discussion forum.

As for the rest of Rule #4 - To my knowledge, none of those people participate on the DU discussion forums.

Or maybe they did and have been tombstoned. :evilgrin:

this is one of the few places to get an unfiltered opinion by a group of knowledgeable main street folks. This is not an echo chamber-and that is what these folks need. They are starting to believe their own press clippings.

Thanks Ozy....I'll loosen the muzzle a bit now.

Even better - attend the meeting with every regular and occasional participant, past and present, on this thread. That would be a glorious encounter.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bmxyj6iInMc


Take 2 Fukitol and call me in the morning.

:hi:

I was starting to worry. :hi:

I figure I can delay a tombstone that way. It's inevitable.

Small ones for stupid annoyances.

Huge HONKIN' tombstones for anyone who goes out in a blaze of glory.

Good to know you are still around. :toast:

I take Damitol. If I take Fukitol, will I overdose. I also like afternoon cocktails-is that counter indicated or recommended.

Fukitol and alcohol form a potent version of Damitol.

Side effects include a strong feeling of invincibility, bordering on bulletproof. Also an inability to focus and a strong feeling of euphoria. Heavy abuse among women could cause them to wake up with me.

in a very very long time.

:yourock: BIG TIME.


:hi:




TG, NTY

that explains the strange underware in my bed, but what about the dog hair? Was Sara with you????? My dogs have been acting strange ever since.

Do I need to withdraw my name from the Tansy Gold / Anne D presidential ticket and open myself to speculation or will that get this thread locked down? :blush:

:hi:

:spray: :fistbump:

Like a seeing-eye dog, if I've had too much, and I'm in over my head, she bites me.

or of keeping those "Beautiful Minds" clear of the encumbrance of Reality.

"I cannot praise a fugitive and cloistered virtue, unexercised and unbreathed, that never sallies out and sees her adversary, but slinks out of the race where that immortal garland is to be run for, not without dust and heat." -- John Milton

Granted, I'm also averse to arguments lacking in fact and logic. But, rather than shade my eyes... I prefer to rely on the critical thinking skills of those in attendance to come to their own conclusions. Which, oddly enough, tend to be liberal in nature.

Those flame bait and disrupting posts are quite obvious and should be dealt with... However, to deprive ourselves of the ammunition of a well informed argument is disgraceful.

Also, we must allow ourselves the grace of having a little mirth and fun... In an otherwise tedious existence.

'Nuff said... :|

Critical thinking is essential. Like reading the fine print on a credit card offer the question arises: "Why do they make the print so small?" The correct answer is not: "to save money on postage." Critical thinking accompanied with the hard slap of rationality can lead one to many conclusions and ultimately the accurate one.

I would only believe in a god who knows how to dance.


Interestingly, a similar ethos led him to find "skeptics" tedious and soporific.


Nietzsche makes me laugh.....

- Stardust.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. consumer spending rose moderately in May, even as savings touched the highest level in eight months, indicating a tepid economic recovery was still intact.

The data on Monday helped to allay fears that consumers, key to reviving the economy following the longest and deepest slump in 70 years, were retreating.

Spending increased 0.2 percent after going flat in April, the Commerce Department said. That was a touch above market expectations for 0.1 percent. Adjusted for inflation, spending was up 0.3 percent.

Investors, however, continued to worry about the recovery's strength. A string of recent data, including a report showing retail sales had slumped in May, implied it was slackening.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100628/bs_nm/us_usa_economy

and real job creation happens.....small investors are smart to stay liquid in cash for a while longer. You can pick up some good bargains. My money is on a double dip recession.

My money, what little there is, bets on a double-dip. And that was with the Obama plan. Now that the Republicans object even to the color of ink used to print any stimulus bill - that double-dip is assured.

Smart investors might be smart to buy stock while the market is down which it is now. It's not as good a bargain basement buying opportunity as it was in 2008 and 2009, but still good.

I can get up to 9% for my dividend stocks and only around one half % for my savings account, so I like stocks better.

As far as predictions about the economy?


No one knows which is why the stock market has always been and will always be a gamble. As far as the people who sold all their stock when Obama became president, they were definite losers due to the fact the market has gone up substantially.

and am all for bargains. But a blue light special at the dollar store is not so special.

Paying off credit card debt at 18% interest is a better deal. Gold and other precious metals have been phenomenal. I am very very picky about the stocks I select now and most don't pass the sniff test. In the land of credit, where credit is held hostage by a few-cash is king.

As Will Rogers once said-the best way to double your money is to fold it and put it in your pocket.

I agree that if you have credit card debt that it should be paid off first if you are not able to get more than a 18% return.

Although 18% is fairly high for credit card debt. I've never had an interest rate that high.

I mostly invest long-term, but I have on occasion taken profits along the way so the returns on my investments far exceeds 18%.

Therefore, I don't see a problem with a person who doesn't have credit card debt investing in the market with extra cash such as cash that a person would use to buy their 30th pair of shoes or nick knacks that collect dust if a person enjoys investing in the stock market.

Some people prefer to collect shoes and nick knacks and nothing in the world is wrong with that. People should enjoy life the way they see fit.

I enjoy investing in stocks and know a lot of people who also show interest, but just don't know how or have the time.

U.S. stock futures stumble on China jitters
By Steve Goldstein, MarketWatch
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stock futures slumped Tuesday, with worries over Chinese and global economic growth in the spotlight ahead of the release of key indicators later in the week.

S&P 500 futures fell 13.5 points to 1,057.40 and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 25.75 points to 1,810.20. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 114 points.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite ended with mild losses Monday, after leaders of the world's 20 top economies pledged to rein in spending to counter mounting debt burdens. The Bank for International Settlements also made the case for austerity.

Worries on Tuesday were focused on China, which has barely any outstanding debt, as the Conference Board sharply revised lower its April leading economic indicator for the country. The Shanghai Composite lost 4.3%, with the move by the Agricultural Bank of China to cut the price range for the local portion of its estimated $23 billion initial public offering also weighing on Chinese equities.

-more-

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-futures-stumble-on-china-jitters-2010-06-29?dist=beforebell

8:00ET
DJIA INDEX 9,967.00 -121.00
S&P 500 1,056.40 -14.50
1,807.75 -28.25

We know that Wall Street and the banksters and the other greedheads are able to continue doing what they're doing because their fortunes are based on the airy fairy values of the stock markets. Since our elected officials seem to be doing nothing to change the massive accumulation of wealth in the hands of a very few (including themselves, it should be noted) then we must rely upon either the invisible hand of the market :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: or our own initiative.

Since the latter seems to be in very short supply at the moment, all we have to look forward to is a swift and certain unraveling of the great tapestry of dreams that is the DJIA. Somewhere, someday, one of those derivative deals is gonna go so sour it can't be salvaged, and the Dow 36 may become the new reality.

Will it make life easier for most of us? No, of course not. But just as the US emerged from the two previous Depressions -- as cited by Krugman in his pro-deficit but silent on jobs essay the other day -- healthy and intact, I think we the people can do as well once the detritus is cleared away. At least for a while.


The job calls. . . . .



Tansy Gold, NTY (but came close last night)

The entire time my gaze has been fixed on its ghostly image - the invisible hand has been a fist with the middle finger extended.

My pity is only reserved for those whose retirements plans would be wrecked by another Long Depression. That middle finger approach for retirement planning is another construct of the greedy PTB. If you move retirement constructs from the defined pension benefit to the IRA - people will move Heaven and Earth to keep those vaporous stock valuations high.

I'm 61, going on 62. As a widow, I get my husband's social security at a significantly reduced portion, which is reduced further by payments on student loans.

The small company he worked for for 20 years screwed up the first 401k in 1995, forced a distribution that we got socked real good for taxes on. The legitimate second one lost 20% before I managed to get out of it.

I supplement SS with earnings from an "independent contractor" status job and other self-employment.

I have no pension, virtually no savings. I'm fortunate enough to own my home free and clear -- though property taxes are continuing to rise.

I have no health insurance, a 10-year-old car with 165,000 miles on it, and few if any liquid assets.

I will never be able to retire. NEVER.


And I'm not alone. I've mentioned this before -- "retirement" as we've come to know it is a relatively recent invention, and yet it's taken for granted by The Establishment. But there are a lot of people out here -- please note that I did not say "out there," because I'm right here with 'em -- whose "retirement" is not wrapped up in the stock market. Not everyone is a retired teacher or firefighter or GM assembly line worker. Not everyone was able to sock away a fat 401K and send their kids to college and buy a second home in some nice vacation spot.

There are a lot of us who are not so privileged, and sometimes it gets to be a little irritating when we're forgotten.


Rant off.


Tansy Gold

and that's people like Byrd, called by God, since no one else had the moxie, or Geithner, Summers and Bernanke: the 3 Stooges remake, or the CEOs of most major financial and industrial corporations...

God knows, they could afford to gracefully leave and stop increasing the disaster they created....

That's why I thought Poland the luckiest of nations, when all their leading figures went down in one airplane....FRSP made large.

Let's get it over with.

June 29 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks fell, dragging the MSCI Asia Pacific Index to a two-week low, on concern over the pace of China’s economic recovery.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 1 percent to 114.51 as of 2:15 p.m. in Tokyo, set for its lowest close since June 15. The gauge has slumped 11 percent from its high this year on April 15 on concern Europe’s debt crisis and Chinese steps to curb property prices will hurt global growth. Material and energy stocks led today’s declines.

...

“The market is pausing to digest the implications of the macro overhang of the last couple of weeks,” said Jason Teh, who helps manage $3 billion at Investors Mutual Ltd. in Sydney. “Markets are maybe realizing the growth trajectory may be slower because there is still too much leverage in the system.”

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average sank 1.4 percent, reversing an earlier gain of as much as 0.7 percent as the yen strengthened against the dollar. Canon Inc., a maker of consumer electronics that gets almost 80 percent of its sales outside Japan, sank 2.2 percent. China’s Shanghai Composite Index slumped 2.8 percent and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index lost 1.1 percent. South Korea’s Kospi dropped 1.3 percent, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index lost 0.6 percent.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-06-29/asian-stocks-gain-on-buybacks-china-taiwan-trade-prospects-hon-hai-rises.html

Looks like money is seeking shelter in Treasuries. - ozy

June 29 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks and U.S. index futures plunged, Treasury two-year note yields dropped to a record low and the yen strengthened on concern that growth in China, the main engine of the world’s economic recovery, is slowing.

The MSCI World Index of 24 developed nations lost 1.3 percent at 12:24 p.m. in London, driving the yield on the benchmark 2012 note to 0.586 percent and the 10-year yield below 3 percent for the first time in 14 months. China’s Shanghai Composite Index slumped 4.3 percent, the most in six weeks, and futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slid 1.4 percent. The yen appreciated to an eight-year high against the euro.

“If the bond market is correct then this recovery could be dead in the water,” said Jim Reid, the head of fundamental strategy at Deutsche Bank AG in London.

The Conference Board’s leading economic index for China, which overtook Germany as the world’s biggest exporter last year, rose 0.3 percent in April, less than the 1.7 percent reported June 15. The data damaged investor confidence amid concern a Labor Department report July 2 will show the U.S. lost jobs for the first time since December while European banks’ balance sheets come under renewed scrutiny.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aSNYSfcM9DA4&pos=1

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There has been huge movement in bonds. Seven basis points of decline for 10-year T-note is huge in the bond world.

... The War On Credit

In 1940 America the War had been felt only in reminiscent ripples, by "tweets" on telegraph receivers and two week old newspapers. Pearl harbor still stood strong and broad on Oahu's South Face, while mothers and wives hung close to those on which they'd grown to depend.

Not so dissimilar from those days, we now face threats that only quietly whisper their motives from Asia and Europe. Constructed by years of fiscal white lies and monetary insanity, the body bags have yet to be filled. Municipal governments in China still depend on increasing real estate values, while European banks holding large debts of failing Southeastern states still stand. The United States Economy has "recovered faster than anyone could have imagined" and the S&P 500 at one time had nearly doubled from its lows. But still the whispers; 10 year U.S. Treasuries nearing 3% yields, LIBOR trending higher, market technicals showing a shift towards negative confidence, and this week's economic data hanging in the balance...

Quintessential Indicators

This week is a pivotal moment for the global economy for many reasons, not the least of which are the developing technicals of the S&P 500 . Take a look at the QUINTESSENTIAL MEANING OF LIFE chart below...

...

Remember it's all about the S&P 500 until we say so! Stay vigilant and nimble. We see this market on the edge of further downward momentum. There is a battle just over the horizon and bombs may well fall when we least expect it. To those prepared and those forewarned...

"Good night and good luck."

/... http://seekingalpha.com/article/212317-global-market-goodnight-and-good-luck?source=yahoo

(Edit to add link).

The S&P 500 is a much better measure of overall economic health than any other major index. Reason: the S&P 500 is, as the title would indicate, an index of 500 companies that have various levels of market capitalization and operate over a wide swath of industrial activity. As the S&P moves, one can get a sense of how the psychology of the markets and the attitudes of consumption and investing change.

The DOW, on the other hand, receives much attention because of each company's massive market capitalization. Plus - there is a convenience factor being that there are only thirty companies in the index. People like convenience. But that is an inaccurate gauge, aside from the irrationality factor of markets. Each company itself operates like an mutual fund. This aspect of value obscures nuances that would otherwise be noticed in the S&P 500.

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The Federal Reserve Bank of New York has been probing major financial firms' exposure to BP Plc to ensure that if the oil giant buckles under the costs of the Gulf oil spill, it won't put Wall Street or the global financial system at risk, according to two sources familiar with the matter.

After poring over documents and asking banks about their exposure to BP over the past two weeks, the Fed found no systemic risk, and hasn't asked firms to alter their credit relationships with BP, the sources told Reuters.

Beyond's BP survival prospects, the Fed examination underscores market uncertainty about how the spill's staggering clean-up bill might affect Wall Street, a fragile economic recovery, or the multitrillion dollar energy market.

Should the unexpected happen, and BP file for bankruptcy, the economic stakes are huge, potentially affecting the portfolios of some of the world's top banks and funds, not to mention up to 23,000 American jobs, the price of oil, and the easy credit that banks give to big oil companies.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100628/bs_nm/us_bp_fed_exclusive

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Hoping for the best. Preparing for the worst.

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Recession-hit New York could raise an extra $50 million a year by collecting income taxes from people who work for hedge funds in the state but live elsewhere, according to a legislative plan to raise revenue.

The new plan would tax so-called carried interest.

Congress also has considered taxing carried interest -- profits gleaned by managing assets -- at ordinary income rates -- much to the dismay of hedge fund and private equity titans.

But last week, the federal proposal collapsed with a bill extending unemployment benefits. So for the moment, investment managers still pay only the 15 percent federal capital gains tax on their profits.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100628/pl_nm/us_newyork_budget

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I say go for it. Somehow, I doubt that a commuter tax will take bread out of any hedge fund manager's mouths.

LONDON (AFP) – Europe's main stock markets slid on Tuesday after heavy losses in Asia that were largely caused by worries about the strength of the Chinese and Japanese economies, traders said.

London's benchmark FTSE 100 index dropped 2.04 percent to 4,968.97 points in late morning deals, Frankfurt's DAX 30 dived 2.20 percent to 6,022.36 points and in Paris the CAC 40 tumbled 2.59 percent to 3,483.60.

The Stoxx 50 index of leading eurozone shares decreased by 2.62 percent in value to 2,598.72 points.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100629/bs_afp/stockseurope

ATHENS/FRANKFURT, June 29 (Reuters) - Strikes in Greece and Spain highlighted resistance to Europe-wide austerity measures on Tuesday as the euro and shares tumbled ahead of a deadline for banks to repay a giant European Central Bank cash injection. The fifth major strike this year by Greek unions disrupted tourism and public transport in protest at planned pension cuts and later retirement, while Spanish workers shut down Madrid's metro system in anger at a 5 percent public sector pay cut.

The risk premium on southern European government bonds over benchmark German bunds widened and the cost of insuring their debt against default rose as investors adjusted to the wider repercussions of the Greek debt crisis on the financial system at the end of the quarter, a traditional stress point.

Euro zone policymakers sought to reassure markets that Thursday's crunch date for banks to repay a record 442 billion euro ($539.4 billion) one-year liquidity injection would be managed smoothly.

Spanish Economy Minister Elena Salgado said she hoped the ECB was aware of the situation of her country's stressed banks, some of which have been shut out of inter-bank lending due to worries over bad debts and public finances.

/... http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2010-06/17277717-wrapup-1-strikes-hit-greece-spain-ecb-deadline-looms-020.htm

AFP - The European single currency slid on Tuesday as a major downgrade to a key Chinese economic indicator persuaded many investors to seek the safe-haven dollar and yen.

The euro dipped to 1.2190 dollars from 1.2276 dollars late in New York on Monday. Against the Japanese currency, it sank to 107.82 yen, the lowest point since late November 2001, before pulling back slightly. The dollar, meanwhile, dived close to a two-month low of 88.53 yen in earlier Asian trade. It later stood at 88.75 yen, down from 89.35 on Monday.

"If concerns over the strength of the US recovery were not bad enough the market has now been rattled by increased fears that growth in China may be less rapid than previously expected," said Jane Foley, research analyst at trading website Forex.com. "These fears swept across the market following news that the US conference board had revised lower its China index." She added: "This morning's set of poor Japanese economic data increased fears regarding the resilience of the global recovery."

/... http://www.france24.com/en/20100629-euro-slips-against-dollar

PARIS/MADRID, June 29 (Reuters) - European Central Bank officials scrambled to reassure nervous markets on Tuesday that the expiry of nearly half a trillion euros of emergency loans would not hurt the banking system, though they acknowledged some individual banks might face strain.

'The ECB and Eurosystem will do what is necessary to make sure the liquidity is there,' Christian Noyer, who heads the Bank of France, told Europe 1 radio. 'There are some banks that are in a less good situation that might eventually suffer, but we will make sure that there are no problems and everything goes OK.'

On Thursday, 442 billion euros ($544 billion) of one-year loans extended by the ECB -- the first of three one-year tranches offered to commercial banks as emergency support at the height of the global financial crisis -- will expire. To offset the burden that banks will face in paying back the money, the ECB has padded the date with extra borrowing opportunities for them, including an offer of unlimited three-month funds on Wednesday. This is expected to prevent any funding squeeze in the euro zone banking system as a whole. But markets worry that some smaller, weaker banks may find it hard to cope with the shift from the security of borrowing 12-month money from the ECB to relying on loans in shorter maturities.

This concern helped push the euro to a lifetime low against the Swiss franc on Tuesday. The three-month Euribor rate, a major indicator for euro lending, rose to 0.761 percent, the highest level since last September, from 0.754 percent on the previous day.

/... http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2010-06/17281934-wrapup-1-ecb-seeks-to-calm-markets-as-one-year-drain-looms-020.htm

June 29 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Citigroup Inc. are among U.S. banks that may have as long as a dozen years to cut stakes in in-house hedge funds and private- equity units under a regulatory revamp agreed to last week.

Rules curbing banks’ investments in their own funds would take effect 15 months to two years after a law is passed, according to the bill. Banks would have two years to comply, with the potential for three one-year extensions after that. They could seek another five years for “illiquid” funds such as private equity or real estate, said Lawrence Kaplan, an attorney at Paul, Hastings, Janofsky & Walker LLP in Washington.

Giving banks until 2022 to fully implement the so-called Volcker rule is an accommodation for Wall Street in what President Barack Obama called the toughest financial reforms since the 1930s. The Glass-Steagall Act of 1933 forced commercial banks such as what is now JPMorgan Chase & Co. to shed their investment-banking units in less than two years.

The Volcker rule forbids banks from stepping in with capital infusions or other forms of support when their own funds fail. In December 2007, Citigroup agreed to assume $59 billion of assets bought by “structured investment vehicles” sponsored by the bank. During the following two years, Citigroup lost more than $3 billion on the SIVs, which were a kind of hedge fund that invested in mortgage bonds, credit-card securities and other assets that soured amid the financial crisis.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601010&sid=aVhQ7orntLzk

---

Compare the current demand placed on banks to divest themselves of these funds with the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933. Glass-Steagall required banks to separate the commercial and investment houses within one year of the Act's activation. If they were found in violation of Glass-Steagall then their banking licenses could be revoked, effectively putting them out of business. If the muscle and intent of Glass-Steagall worked in 1933, why not adopt the same timeframe and consequences for lack of compliance for the Volcker Rule?

yay us.

From Ritholtz:

First-time buyers purchased 46% of existing home sales in May, down from 49% in April.

We all knew that first-time home buyers activity was going to fade after the tax credit expired. But there was not much of a way to quantify exactly what the impact would be beforehand. We could wait for subsequent monthly sales data to reflect that weakness — but that is hardly much of a solution.

Enter the Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions, a proprietary survey of 1,500 real estate agents nationwide.

The results of the first survey are out, and not surprisingly, it indicates that first-time “homebuyer traffic dropped sharply in May. This drop implies fewer signed contracts in June and fewer closed transactions in July and August.”

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/06/first-time-homebuyer-traffic-nose-dive/

Ritholtz offers some nifty charts and links to illustrate his point.

but I do know that we are coming on to the peak home sales season. School is out so folks are looking to buy/move now before school start up in late August or September. People are ok with small purchases, even cars. But homes? In this job market? With these prices? Not on your life!

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

Again, from Ritholtz:

he Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index – one of my favorite measures — printed this morning. The monthly number edged down slightly, and the 3-month moving average, which the folks in Chicago tell us to focus on, rose somewhat.

Here, however, is the money shot from the release (my bold):

May’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was above its historical trend. Moving above +0.20, the index’s three-month moving average in May also reached a level historically associated with a mature economic recovery following a recession. With regard to inflation, the CFNAI-MA3 in May indicates limited inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.

So here’s the Chicago Fed letting us know that we may well have seen the best of what this “recovery” had to offer. I would note that the Personal Consumption and Housing sub-component of the index continued to be mired in negative territory, subtracting 0.42 from the overall print. Now, this is not to imply that a double dip is a foregone conclusion, though that is certainly one outcome. At the very least, it argues for a very slow growth scenario.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/06/chicago-fed-best-days-behind-us/

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More charts and links at The Big Picture...

(Up a little. Good day.)

(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,556,551,627,690.59 + 4,481,754,159,120.66
UP 258,141,060.04 + DOWN 32,337,967.15

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,230.53 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.69, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,546,824 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $42,120.63.
A family of three owes $126,361.88. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 1,848,969,407.25.
The average for the last 30 days would be 1,417,543,212.22.
The average for the last 31 days would be 1,371,816,011.83.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 184 reports in 268 days of FY2010 averaging 6.13B$ per report, 4.21B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 940 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.3 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
06/25/2010 13,038,305,786,811.25 BHO (UP 2,411,428,737,898.17 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,128,476,783,299.50 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,536,918,007,105.66 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
06/07/2010 +000,055,958,918.33 ------------******* Mon
06/08/2010 -000,061,366,300.19 ----
06/09/2010 +000,374,218,915.72 ------------********
06/10/2010 -005,787,434,254.89 --
06/11/2010 -000,035,173,484.80 ----
06/14/2010 +000,237,116,126.71 ------------******** Mon
06/15/2010 +026,653,914,221.49 ------------**********
06/16/2010 +000,179,185,558.18 ------------********
06/17/2010 -040,132,025,764.65 -
06/18/2010 +000,218,467,463.90 ------------********
06/21/2010 -000,091,646,713.41 ---- Mon
06/22/2010 -000,064,399,407.68 ----
06/23/2010 +000,605,957,540.69 ------------********
06/24/2010 -003,383,268,122.91 --
06/25/2010 +000,258,141,060.04 ------------********

-20,972,354,243.47 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4445057&mesg_id=4445088

(Down a little. Good day.)

(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,555,694,983,404.56 + 4,483,221,853,538.84
DOWN 856,644,286.03 + UP 1,467,694,418.18

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,230.32 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.69, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,566,762 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $42,119.89.
A family of three owes $126,359.66. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 2,208,462,189.82.
The average for the last 30 days would be 1,545,923,532.87.
The average for the last 31 days would be 1,496,055,031.81.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 185 reports in 271 days of FY2010 averaging 6.10B$ per report, 4.17B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 937 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.3 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
06/28/2010 13,038,916,836,943.40 BHO (UP 2,412,039,788,030.32 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,129,087,833,431.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,520,727,155,729.04 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
06/08/2010 -000,061,366,300.19 ----
06/09/2010 +000,374,218,915.72 ------------********
06/10/2010 -005,787,434,254.89 --
06/11/2010 -000,035,173,484.80 ----
06/14/2010 +000,237,116,126.71 ------------******** Mon
06/15/2010 +026,653,914,221.49 ------------**********
06/16/2010 +000,179,185,558.18 ------------********
06/17/2010 -040,132,025,764.65 -
06/18/2010 +000,218,467,463.90 ------------********
06/21/2010 -000,091,646,713.41 ---- Mon
06/22/2010 -000,064,399,407.68 ----
06/23/2010 +000,605,957,540.69 ------------********
06/24/2010 -003,383,268,122.91 --
06/25/2010 +000,258,141,060.04 ------------********
06/28/2010 -000,856,644,286.03 --- Mon

-21,884,957,447.83 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4446866&mesg_id=4446937

Investors targeted Spain’s fragile banking sector on Tuesday after the European Central Bank refused to extend its special liquidity measures due to expire on Thursday.

Banks across the eurozone, but in Spain in particular, have found it hard in recent weeks to secure liquid funding in the commercial markets, with interbank funding virtually non-existent.

The controversial move – called “absurd” by Spanish officials – sent ripples through the region, and restoked wider fears about the health of its finances. The FTSE Eurofirst 300 lost 1.9 per cent to 1,007.46, emphatically reversing Monday’s gains.

“The expiry … is creating jitters in the European money markets, where conditions have worsened,” said Peter Possing Andersen, analyst at Danske Bank. “Markets are worrying that weak European banks may have difficulties rolling over short-term funding.”

A special offer of six-day liquidity will tide banks over until the following week’s regular offer of seven-day funds. On Wednesday, the ECB will also be offering unlimited three-month liquidity, and further offers of three-month liquidity will keep banks going until at least the end of the year.

The region’s biggest loser was Spain’s benchmark Ibex 35 index, which was sheared of 3.2 per cent to 9,375.70 points, its lowest total for 18 days, as fears over sovereign debt and banking solvency in the country and the wider region were reignited.

In Madrid, BBVA was the biggest loser, dropping 4.5 per cent to €8.60, while Banco Popular went down 4.3 per cent to €4.27. Bankinter fell 4.3 per cent to €5.12, while Banco Santander lost 4 per cent to €8.70.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/573fcf96-8367-11df-8451-00144feabdc0.html

Banks have consolidated stockpiles of money. They will not perform the essential function of banks which is to be the frontline conveyor of the credit markets. Meanwhile, sovereign debt (which the G20 obsessed over during its conference last weekend) is increasing. Central banks should be the lender of last resort on a rare occasion. The 2007 crisis of the credit markets was been far too recent an occurrence to be happening again.

Watch the euro take a hit.

A oil futures broker who pushed the price of oil to an eight-month high in London after an early-hours trading spree while he was so drunk he blacked out was this morning banned from working in the financial industry and fined £72,000 (€88,900) for market abuse by the market regulator.

Steven Perkins, of Brentwood, Essex, who built up a long position of more than $500m (€410m) in oil futures in the early hours of the morning from his laptop before passing out, has been struck off by the Financial Services Authority, which claims he is not a "fit and proper person" to hold a role of financial significance.

Perkins fine would have been £150,000, but was reduced as this would cause "serious financial hardship".

According to the FSA's final notice, Perkins, who had been at execution broker PVM Oil Futures, as a broker since 1998, carried out unauthorised trading of Brent futures on commodities exchange ICE over a 19-hour period on June 29 and 30 2009. The unauthorised activity, which helped push ICE Brent to eight-month highs of $73.50 a barrel, was reported in the press at the time.

On June 29, Perkins placed a number orders to buy and sell Brent futures, purportedly on behalf of a client. However, only one of these trades had the client's authorisation. In the early hours of June 30, between 0122 and 0341, he traded a high volume of Brent without client authorisation from his laptop at home.

http://www.efinancialnews.com/story/2010-06-29/ex-pvm-broker-fined-and-banned

And we trust a system that allows this to happen - with or without permission from a "client"? Make Mr. Perkins feel some "serious financial hardship" I say. The nature of his business is to bid up the price of oil - thus creating "serious financial hardship" for incredible numbers of people.

When used in the correct context. The trader: He's a Fucker with a capital 'F'.

wanker.

I know, because I say it a lot.

"What wankers!" "They're all wankers!" "Wankers, wankers all!"



Tansy Gold, NTY

Just saw this in LBN. - ozy

June 29 (Bloomberg) -- Just before sunset on April 10, 2006, a DC-9 jet landed at the international airport in the port city of Ciudad del Carmen, 500 miles east of Mexico City. As soldiers on the ground approached the plane, the crew tried to shoo them away, saying there was a dangerous oil leak. So the troops grew suspicious and searched the jet.

They found 128 black suitcases, packed with 5.7 tons of cocaine, valued at $100 million. The stash was supposed to have been delivered from Caracas to drug traffickers in Toluca, near Mexico City, Mexican prosecutors later found. Law enforcement officials also discovered something else.

The smugglers had bought the DC-9 with laundered funds they transferred through two of the biggest banks in the U.S.: Wachovia Corp. and Bank of America Corp., Bloomberg Markets reports in its August 2010 issue.

This was no isolated incident. Wachovia, it turns out, had made a habit of helping move money for Mexican drug smugglers. Wells Fargo & Co., which bought Wachovia in 2008, has admitted in court that its unit failed to monitor and report suspected money laundering by narcotics traffickers -- including the cash used to buy four planes that shipped a total of 22 tons of cocaine.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aXf9c5B9KWfA

---

This appears to be a regular occurrence.

6/29/10 How To Run Drug Money: Be A (Large) Bank
Karl Denninger

Facilitating drug-running is just one small part of it. There's also ripping off municipal governments, such as the Jefferson County sewer deal in Alabama. There's bid-rigging in the GIC market. And, of course, there's laundering money for violent Mexican drug cartels, who used that money to buy automatic weapons (no, not from America - from China, Venezuela and even from corrupt Mexican law enforcement officials!) with which they then shoot civilians and government officials who refuse to be corrupted.

Oh, and it's not just Wachovia accused in this story. It's also Western Union and Bank of America.

lots more...
http://market-ticker.org/archives/2460-How-To-Run-Drug-Money-Be-A-Large-Bank.html

My mortgage is with Wells Cargo. Washington Mutual sold it to them a few years ago. Think I'll send this to Wachovia..I have a small checking with them

I'll bet it's boosting profits.

already logged in and sent. That would have been excellent. Might be their reply

Wonder how much evil I'm now obligated to support...

Ask them to produce the note.

I logged into my checking acct yesterday and right below it was all the mortgage details.

I had a feeling they would (Chase was about the only major lender that was closing USDA loans on the new Conditional Commitment basis until the bill was signed by the Pres.) Guess my funding lender offloaded it like a hot potato. :)

6/26/10 A Tribute video for invaluable work of Stoneleigh and Ilargi at The Automatic Earth, http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v-geWu-E9ys


This video made by CaptainSheeple. He also posts as JAG, if you read at https://www.chrismartenson.com


Edit: Here is another video by CaptainSheeple (lots of quick flashing photos)
Eyes Wide Open
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YThN6iqr4SM

10:12
Dow 9,919.43 219.09 (2.16%)
Nasdaq 2,156.69 63.96 (2.88%)
S&P 500 1,050.19 24.38 (2.27%)

I am beginning to think we truly are entering our Lost Decade.

We have Zombie Bank syndrome to the bad degree that Japan had it. The banks got their boons while everyone else received nothing but the bailout bill. Purchase demand is artificially stimulated - not with natural price/demand equilibrium but with tax breaks. One cannot build a sustainable expansion on that.

We don't have to tolerate crackpots of any persuasion--not Libertarians, not goldbugs, not neoliberals, not DC officialdom...not the supporters of cult figures like St. Ronnie or any other party.

We deal in discovered truth--as best we can find it, and our analyses and comments are designed to try to poke holes in things and see if they still hold water.

Because-- any plan based on an untruth, whether internally generated of externally supplied, will fail when the acid test of reality hits it.

We are trying to map reality--the reality on the ground and the reality in the various models of how things work in the world. This is the unique quality SMW brings to the entire Internet world. There isn't another like it.

Various experts have their blogs, and we reference them as appropriate, but they get the same pinhole testing as anybody else. Leaving comments on their blogsites would not have the same value nor effect.

We are aggregators--compiling the best knowledge and wisdom out there at the moment. It's what we do.

And we do it freely for our own benefit, and if applicable, for the benefit of any passer-by. It is the essence of the First Amendment, as well as others, like freedom of assembly. We are in essence, autodidacts--educating ourselves and others by sharing what we know and find out.

That the Greater DU feels threatened by this is extremely telling about what is happening to this site outside this little group effort. It is NOT healthy, it is NOT A GOOD THING.

I joined DU because I felt that the entire site was devoted to discovering useful truths to apply to political life. Now it's turning into an instrument of Party Politics in the Soviet sense--the 1984 sense. Conform or leave, that's the new shibboleth.

Well, Truth has a way of destroying conformity to false gods. It may well be that DU itself diminishes into something resembling the Teabaggers with Sarah Palin as their leading light. And that would be a shame.

I admit I am surprised by this tendency--just goes to show, there's still way too much of the cock-eyed idealist in me, even after 30 years of Republican/fascist progress.

Some people REALLY don't like that. They are threatened, or their plans to bamboozle others are threatened. Other people can't stand the glare or Reality and put on those rosy shades. They want the bedtime story and the happy ending.

Truth isn't comfortable. But it's real.

What am I bid for October?

I'm guessing 7500. Just because I was WAY too optimistic about the 10k level last time...

http://www.businessinsider.com/consumer-confidence-june-2010-6

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index for June dropped sharply to 52.9, which is a horrible underperformance of expectations given that consensus had forecast a reading of 62.

It also disappoints bulls after three consecutive months of improvement previously.

To some degree a pullback was expected as the economy has been long forecast to slow as we enter the second half of 2010, but this shift in consumer sentiment has clearly been surprisingly severe.

Conference Board:

The Index now stands at 52.9 (1985=100), down from 62.7 in May. The Present Situation Index decreased to 25.5 from 29.8. The Expectations Index declined to 71.2 from 84.6 last month.

These people polled deserve the gold star of the day for having a clue and being honest.

Could be some frightening moves in mid to late October. Put me down for 8,000. Keep in mind the mid term elections, so maybe some market manipulation? After that, look out below ...

BTW, I think that Puetz window is still open today. I wonder ... Nah.

Does it matter at this point? I'd say the lowest point of the DOW within the 31 days of the last month of the federal fiscal year, on the understanding that the decline will continue through 2011 and beyond.

I just expect it will be more of a collapse than a slow leak in the balloon from this point on.

OK, I'm nitpicking. I've just seen too many of those intraday 1,000 point dives and 1,000 point rises.

I agree that we'll be seeing a lot of collapsing for the next five years or so. But, we'll also see lots of snap back rallies too. Lower highs and lower lows all the way down.

Demeter 7500

Ozone man 8000


That is: assuming the world doesn't end before then...

as far as I recall the rout, once started, lasts several days. Demeter (apologies) might hit her mark this week.


"Once the panic starts, Puetz notes, it generally lasts from two to four weeks. The tendency has been for the markets to peak a few days ahead of the full moon, move flat to slightly lower --waiting for the full moon to pass. Then on the day of the full moon or slightly after, the brunt of the crash hits the marketplace."

or so they say...

:>)

I'm not superstitious, but if the crash is precipitated within the Puetz window, then that would be intriguing. And then there is the other window in a month from now around July 26 full moon.

I mean, if you know a Puetz window is approaching and it always results in a crash, you can get all your money out. Totally safe market.

I think we've been in a Putz window for a number of years now. A Putz window is where high rollers and big money get to determine when the windows open and close at the casino. So they see a little guy with a wheel barrow full of chips heading their way and *SLAM* ....oops, I'm sorry...time for my break.

Me...Even when I had the required 401 K, I stuck with the absolute safest bets. No high roller here. I put cardboard inner soles in my shoes to keep the rocks out....(not really, but those no-slip stick on pads work great for that!)

but it can suggest a deeper look into cause and effect relationship. I would dismiss it totally, except that the markets are driven by herd mentality, psychological and sociological influences. So, if there really is a lunar effect, I suppose it's possible.

Seriously though, the market is going to crash regardless of any lunar cycles. Not as certain is the when. Soon and often I think.

It doesn't really matter. It's not like we have control. Even if every American worked towards the same goal, the economic elite, who are NOT American in their own minds nor in any useful sense of the word, would still out-vote and out-maneuver us.

Precisely.

Aggregates are complicated and messy. But they tell a better picture than a snapshot of a stock index. The devil is in the details - as the tired saying goes.

I can't play the ostrich anymore and being a mushroom has never been palatable. "We are trying to map reality". For all our sakes

"Truth isn't comfortable, but it's real."

I have always done well with the information and advice I have gleened from this thread. It has saved my bacon many a time. I am in a better position for the info I get here. Some of these bubbles need to popped and Rosie Scenario needs to take her glasses off now and again.

brought tears to my eyes!

It's a late morning (or early afternoon for you folks back east) of :yourock:






TG

There will be time enough for tears in the future....

Take my family, please! There are times I think being an orphan would be a distinct advantage. Like now.

That's the problem with 100% Pollacks. Thank goddess the kids are only half.

and my pessimism about the health of our economy is well known on these boards. While I tell people what I intend to do about it, I don't pretend to know the sure strategy for anyone including myself, something no one will know until it's all over and we count up what's left out of the wreckage.

So far, the only thing I've been wrong about is the amount of time the house of cards has remained damaged but still standing.

The cosmetic changes in the "sweeping" financial reform bill will ensure it eventually totters and falls, since all that's "sweeping" about it is what it left under the rug.

http://www.nyse.com/press/circuit_breakers.html



CIRCUIT-BREAKER LEVELS
FOR Second QUARTER 2010
In the event of a 1050-POINT decline in the DJIA (10 percent):

Before 2 p.m.
1-HOUR HALT

2-2:30 p.m.
30-MIN. HALT

After 2:30 p.m.
NO HALT
In the event of a 2150-POINT decline in the DJIA (20 percent):

Before 1 p.m.
2-HOUR HALT

1-2 p.m.
1-HOUR HALT

After 2 p.m.
MARKET CLOSES
In the event of a 3200-POINT decline in the DJIA (30 percent), regardless of the time, MARKET CLOSES for the day.

The way they nurture that index, creeping it up so cautiously, wouldn't they like to hold onto that inflation for a while? Even cut in half, those tripwire numbers seem excessively generous.

+2% in either direction caused curbs to kick in so that orders had to be made by hand rather than by automated puts. I believe that changed in 2008 when HFT became very popular to the extent that 30% of all trades became automated, algorithm driven processes.

all to benefit GS, no doubt.

If there is a logic to what they do, I've never caught on to it.

But then it could be similar to the way I teach people to translate the size of a real object to a proportional drawing..... you start by drawing an arbitrary sized object that has proportionally correct measurements and work everything else in relation to that.

10, 20, 30% makes some kind of sense. They are nice even numbers.

If there is a logic to what they do, I've never caught on to it.

But then it could be similar to the way I teach people to translate the size of a real object to a proportional drawing..... you start by drawing an arbitrary sized object that has proportionally correct measurements and work everything else in relation to that.

10, 20, 30% makes some kind of sense. They are nice even numbers.

Economic Disaster lecture is excellent. Everyone should listen.

11:53
Dow 9,912.10 226.42 (2.23%)
Nasdaq 2,158.81 61.84 (2.78%)
S&P 500 1,047.99 26.58 (2.47%)
10-Yr Bond 2.99% 0.40

11:30 am : Though selling pressure has been sharp and broad for the entire session, the most extreme selling has come against industrial stocks. In turn, the sector is down 3.7% in its worst single-session percentage slide since a 4.6% drop on June 4.

Every single one of the industrial sector's components is in negative territory, but Textron (TXT 17.13, -1.53) and Boeing (BA 63.62, -3.68) are having the most detrimental affect on the overall sector's performance. Neither stocks is anywhere near their respective 52-week low, though. DJ30 -230.88 NASDAQ -60.69 SP500 -26.67 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 261/943/2274 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 240/458 mln/2713

11:00 am : Persistent, broad-based selling recently sent the S&P 500 back to its monthly low of 1042, which was set earlier this month, but technical support at that level has helped stocks make a modest move off of those lows. Still, every company in the S&P 500 except Zimmer Holdings (ZMH 55.03, +0.46) is in negative territory.

As things currently stand, the stock market is on pace for a monthly loss of nearly 4%. That would make for its second straight monthly loss and its worst two-month performance since early 2009. DJ30 -233.45 NASDAQ -62.20 SP500 -27.43 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 257/820 mln/2267 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 208/390 mln/2735

No wait...is it still Clinton's fault?

Maybe they share the blame?

All the world's ills are either Clinton's fault or Obama's fault. Selective amnesia leaps over the eight years in between.

How's the house working for you, Roland? Settled in yet?

:hi:

Next week will be a big week (frig, washer/dryer, window blinds all get delivered). Ordering the cordless lawn mower from Amazon this week, too.

Just got internet today but no Direct TV until I write a letter requesting approval (and receiving said approval) from the HOA (ugh...) Not worried about that considering 2 houses down is a 3' diameter dish on the side of a house facing the street. Mine will be invisible compared to that.

June 29 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks slid, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index falling below its 2010 closing low, after a gauge of consumer confidence trailed economists’ estimates and concern grew that growth is slowing in China.

Caterpillar Inc., the world’s largest maker of construction equipment, retreated 5 percent and Alcoa Inc., the biggest U.S. aluminum maker, fell 4.7 percent as the Conference Board revised its April gauge for the outlook of China’s economy to indicate slower growth. JPMorgan Chase & Co. slipped 4.2 percent after Moody’s Investors Service said the bank may face lost revenue from a cap on debit fees.

The S&P 500 sank 2.7 percent to 1,045.97 as of 1:07 p.m. in New York, below its lowest closing level since November 2009. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 237.91 points, or 2.4 percent, to 9,900.61. About eleven stocks fell for each that rose on U.S. exchanges.

“It was shocking to me” that consumer confidence would be so low, said Randy Bateman, chief investment officer at Huntington Asset Management in Columbus, Ohio, which oversees $13.5 billion. “The consumer is still grappling with the fact that they have not saved enough and that joblessness is giving people concern about future prospects that we might go into a double dip.”

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-06-29/stock-index-futures-decline-on-concern-china-s-economic-growth-set-to-cool.html

... The blinkers/blinders and special distorting eyeglasses are becoming very visible to all but those who wear them, are they not...

June 29 (Bloomberg) -- President Barack Obama said after meeting with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke that the U.S. economy is strengthening even as it faces “headwinds” because of concerns about the European debt crisis.

“We have seen some very positive trends in a number of sectors,” Obama said at the White House after a meeting with his economic advisers. “Unfortunately, because of the troubles we’ve seen in Europe, we’re now seeing some headwinds and skittishness and nervousness on the part of the markets,”.

Bernanke, who joined the president for the daily economic briefing, said he and Obama talked about how the U.S. economy is being affected events in Europe, without elaborating.

...

“What’s happening around the world in emerging markets, in Europe, affects us here in the United States, and it’s important for us to take that global perspective as we discuss the economy,” Bernanke said.

/... http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-06-29/obama-says-economy-hitting-headwinds-from-europe.html

are mighty strong. Blowing all the way from jolly old England. :argh:

:kick:

I knew you would show up eventually....

“Of all the gin joints in all the towns in all the world, she walks into mine.”

For half a day I actually thought you may have been alluding to a Super Mario Brothers internet group. :rofl: I had just finished commenting on a couple techi issues that day and that's what immediately popped into my mind. Eventually I popped over to DU's SMW (which I've been doing since I first started visiting this site years ago) and then had to slap myself silly.

The three biggest lies about the economy
Commentary: The truth about jobs, the market and U.S. socialism

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-three-biggest-lies-about-the-us-economy-2010-06-29?pagenumber=2

Paper Moon....

Music by harold arlen.
Lyrics by e.y. (yip) harburg

I never feel a thing is real
When I'm away from you
Out of your embrace
The world's a temporary parking place

Mmm, mm, mm, mm
A bubble for a minute
Mmm, mm, mm, mm
You smile, the bubble has a rainbow in it

Say, it's only a paper moon
Sailing over a cardboard sea
But it wouldn't be make-believe
If you believed in me

Yes, it's only a canvas sky
Hanging over a muslin tree
But it wouldn't be make-believe
If you believed in me

Without your love
It's a honky-tonk parade
Without your love
It's a melody played in a penny arcade

It's a barnum and bailey world
Just as phony as it can be
But it wouldn't be make-believe
If you believed in me

More lyrics: http://www.lyricsmode.com/lyrics/h/harold_arlen/#share

And one of the ones that started it all is taking a beating today:

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/c

Corporate rights are mentioned in the constitution?

For once the Supremes decided against corporations and said no.

from seeking alpha:

A federal appeals court rejects GE's constitutional challenge to a law that gives the EPA the power to order companies to clean up sites contaminated with hazardous waste. GE, which has been subject to several Superfund cleanup orders, believes the law violates companies' constitutional rights, because they have no meaningful opportunity to contest the EPA's cleanup orders.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704103904575336813411467390.html

On Jan. 6, 2009, Ukragro Corp. of Zhitomir, Ukraine, made an initial filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission to sell stock to the public. Its sole employee and owner was a 79-year-old massage therapist.

The company had no revenue, $100 in assets and planned to open a string of health spas. Public records on file at the SEC show that the agency asked no questions and the application cleared through the commission eight days later.

Over the past two years, eight other start-ups reviewed by the SEC have been similarly headed by people in Ukraine or Russia, with no ...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704638504575318681417658388.html

Dow -320.66-3.16% 9,817.86
Nasdaq -96.61-4.35% 2,124.04
S&P -39.39-3.67% 1,035.18

Clawed back 70 pts in 6 minutes!

If this is the best they can do - then they just need to give up. Inflation has eaten away any gains over the past ten years.

Maybe they've been outsourced. Or maybe they've been automated because they complain too much and require too much food.

http://www.cnn.com/2010/BUSINESS/06/29/china.rent.white.people/index.html?hpt=C1



:)

The numbers were horrible, but the biggest joke about them is that everyone called every piece of bad news "unexpected."

It's REALLY getting tiresome.

I know the reality of why it's being done. Our Media has become PRAVDA 2.0 and we will never get anything but pure fiction from them ever again. I get that.

What I DON'T get is why the majority of The Public keeps falling for it.

WHY are we UNABLE TO RESIST the monsters who are systematically destroying our Economy, our country and our future?

WHY?

Is reality TV really that important? Is shopping for useless bobbles and trinkets form China that important? Are sports that important? Is living in a fantasy world of denial, distraction, and delusion that important?

Is keeping LeBron James in Cleveland more important than Keeping our Constitution from being rendered obsolete, or Keeping the Banksters from stealing the rest of everything we have? (Apologies to Cavs fans, but even Carlin is screaming at you from his grave "He Doesn't CARE ABOUT YOU.....")

Are we really this weak, soft, and jellyfish like?

Is it time to update/renew my Passport?

Would it make any difference? (There is nowhere to run)

Ahhhhh, what else?

Oh, read the latest Orwellian Insanity?

Fed Warns us to IGNORE BLOGGERS, because they could be DANGEROUS TO THE ECONOMIC "RECOVERY"

This piece of shit makes The Onion look like Sober, Hard News......


http://www.zerohedge.com/article/fed-has-lost-it-publishes-essay-bashing-bloggers-tells-general-public-broadly-ignore-those-w?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29


THIS Should have been the guy to replace Greenspan. He makes even LESS sense than that fossil did.

Alas, maybe there was only ONE good thing that came out of today's action.

The obnoxious, child-like Economic Gatekeepers are STRANGELY SILENT.

And they still don't have the guts to post one single word here.

Maybe they are still getting over the "shock" of all the "unexpected" revelations. :evilgrin:

All in all I think the stock market is behaving as usual. For people to take a headline for a period of time and conclude that the sky is falling is ridiculous.


To me that would be like taking the sales from a day or even a month and conclude that a company is failing. Especially since some companies exclusively only earn revenues at certain times of the year, but over all they do make a profit.

As far as reform is concerned, I thing that Obama did the best he could with what he had. The republicans are not voting for Wall Street reform and same thing with many conservative or red state democrats.

So, to get democrats on board there has to be compromise.

Also, why is it that when the stock market goes up, Some posters insist it's because the contingent Wall street reform is ineffective but when stocks go down the sky is falling because there's no Wall street reform.

Which is it?

Sure, if you consider a manipulated, High Frequency, Algo-Driven, Robot Trading Casino normal.

If the past fifteen years of unsustainable Bubble Economics is what you would call normal.

The Bubble from 98-2001? Completely Normal.

The Bubble from 03-08? Normal.

The current Bubble that has burst? All in a days work.

Come back and try again when you have a better understanding of what "normal" is. :hi:

Again what's the surprise?

People have been talking about a bubble since 2008. People and talking heads have also been talking about stock market 6000 since 2008.

Predictions are just rhetoric because in truth no one knows.

I have a complete understanding of what is normal. Also, real juvenile of you as a so called knowledgeable person, the last nasty comment followed by a smiley face and the waving hand.


So, whether you mind or not, I think I'll stick around.

The "talk" about the BUBBLES that we have had the past 15 years is not talk. It is fact, and there is plenty of evidence to that effect.

The Dot Com Bubble, Domestic Real Estate Bubble, Commercial Real Estate Bubble that is currently Bursting, Debt Bubble Credit Bubble, CDS, CDO, Derivatives, High Frequency Black Box Trading, a completely off the rails Fed with a foolish Monetary Policy led by Greenspan and Helo ben (Print Your Way out of everything, and Paper it all over with Infinite Fiat), the devaluation of the currency, and Helo Ben's Monetization of the Debt have all been contributing factors to the Bubble Economic Ponzi System that passes for our Economy and Markets.

Like I said, try demonstrating some understanding of how we got here and I might take you seriously.

And yes, the regular posters here ARE VERY knowledgeable people, and have been following the trends and the actual REALITY we are living in, not the spin, Propaganda and hype from the Financial Media Machines like CNBC, and Government institutions that have lost all credibility by showering us with data that, to be diplomatic, is hardly reliable or based in reality.

"I have a complete understanding of what is normal."

Then with all due respect, share some insight that proves it.

You are batting .000 right now.

Your rudeness, unsubstantiated opinions and bullying?

convince us you're so knowledgeable about.

And since that does not seem to be forthcoming, I will bid you good Evening.

See ya, Mick.

It was amusing.

You should be getting to bed soon, anyway.

Squawk Box will be on in a few hours.

:rofl:

You are very childish, and there really is not an excuse for that and your constant use of those snarky emotion icons in an effort to belittle. No words for that.

Are you partial to shiny keys as well?

In addition, your talking points resemble what the Right wingers on the Wall Street Journal forum were talking about in 2008, along with the Doom of the so called 4,000 Dow that never happened.

I'm the only one on this thread who has a different opinion and who won't back down, and you can't stand it.

Sorry Mick, I have not offered you talking points, I have merely illustrated points of interest that have contributed to the circumstances in which we currently find ourselves.

What you have been unable to do is engage in discussion of those points, or offer any insight or understanding into well, any of them.

And calling me a Right Winger or a Doomer just illustrates that you have little to offer in the way of discussion or debate, which is why you have resorted to name calling

As for me, I never made the call for Dow 4000, but you can feel free to go back through DU's archives, and find my call for the 6400 level, which we did indeed reach intraday in March of 2009 I believe.

Since then, we have had an 80% run in equities that has had no fundamental basis in reality, and is completely at odds with The Real Economy. It's another Bubble. I'm sorry you can't understand that, but that is the reality of the situation. And now that bubble is in the process is unwinding. Will it reach the 4000 level? I do not know how low we will go this time, but I will say this.

4000 is a MUCH bigger possibility than new All-Time Highs. Who knows, maybe they can push it there again, but if they do, then you should be prepared for something that will make 2008 look like child's play.

You seem to be ignoring the fact that when the past three Bubbles (which you seem to deny the existence of) have collapsed, we have gone to lower lows each time, and the fallout has been more and more severe. That is the nature of Bubble Economics. it's a Ponzi Scheme that has to be bailed out everytime it collapses, and the subsequent Bubble that follows always has more sever consequences when it finally collapses.

This is not sustainable. And that is the BOTTOM LINE.


I'm the only one on this thread who has a different opinion and who won't back down, and you can't stand it.

Actually, Mickey, to be honest, I'm kind of embarrassed for you. So far, you really haven't demonstrated much of a knowledgeable understanding of the subject at all.

I'm done with you, and I not going to respond to you further, but I can tell you this. If you come here with the approach that you know everything, and you don't have anything to back it up with, you will more than likely find yourself largely ignored.

Good Day! :hi:

Seriously. You have issues. You don't own this forum so stop trying to bully people.

Insult me to death?

Send me to bed without any supper? :rofl:

No one is bullying you. You were merely challenged to offer some insight. Instead of doing so, you have decided to turn this into a Elementary School sandbox fight.

The moral of the story is this.

Don't come into a discussion throwing your weight around, acting like you know something, and then demonstrate, quite painfully and embarrassingly, that you don't.

Here endeth the lesson.

Have A Good Night, Mickey.

I'll leave you the last word, so you can feel good and empowered, and crown yourself the overwhelming victor of this epic Internet Confrontation. :rofl:

And that I would be ignored...Yet, you are still here, and I'm not surprised at all.


The thing is, you won't ignore me because some how you think you own this forum.

You'll probably stay up all night policing this thread if you have to.

OR normal may put in a return engagement only after considerable panic and violence shakes out the criminal and the crazy....

Investing in the stock market has always been a risk. People should not be investing their lunch money in the stock market.

As far as predictions, if there were anyone, and I mean anyone who really absolutely could predict the stock market, they more than likely wouldn't be giving out advice on the internet.

It's normal because you say so?

Do you have any understanding at all of the forces that have driven the Market the past 15-20 years?

Do you know what a Bubble is?

Do you know what High Frequency Trading is?

Do you understand that Computer Program Trading is now responsible for 60-80% of all trading in the Dow on a given day?

The Market hasn't traded anywhere near "normal" or "natural" for a long time.

You should try reading this thread for a few weeks and get educated. The Economics forum has a lot of good Posters as well, and both offer a wealth of good information that sheds a lot of light on the kind of Economic Realities we are actually living in.

I have to be frank with you, marching into this thread and basically acting like you know the score, especially with the vagaries you've posted that indicates a rather limited understanding to say the least, makes it a bit hard to take you seriously.

:hi:

I haven't had much sleep in the past couple of days. :)

I'm surprised I haven't tried to feed the cats dog food yet. :rofl:

The words, that is, not dogs and cats. :D

I didn't get much sleep myself last night. The fingers are startin' to wander in bizarre patterns on the keyboard so I think I'd better pack it in 'til morning. I have a weird feeling about tomorrow. End of the second quarter. The year is half over. It's like if ever there was a day for something weird to happen. . . . . know what I mean?




Tansy Gold, she of the lightning fingers and eagle eye for everyone's typos but her own, NTY

As far as The casino goes, I expect the typical End Of Quarter nonsense that usually occurs. We're too close to technical support levels (S&P 1040 was defended like The Survival Of the Planet Depended On it, for example).

But the sham was exposed for what it is again today.

I have been feeling very anxious myself for the past few days, and it feels like something is DEFINITELY up.

As for my demeanor, yes, I've been harsh today, but at this stage of the game, I just don't have any patience for Truman Show silliness and willful ignorance anymore. We are in a very critical time.

I should probably be taking the Good Doctor's lead and stick to lurking for awhile, because I don't seem to be able to conduct the civil path right now.

Take Care, dear friend.

Just another day in the Goldman States of America :patriot:

been unpredictable and I think I've said that again and again.

I understand the stock market, I own stock and I've made money in the stock market. Many investors base their investment decisions on their perception of the economy and often times reports on the economy some times unfortunately unrelated fear.


Frank?

Just because my opinions are not in step with your views, you felt the need to be nasty and childish.

So frankly, I don't give a hoot what your thoughts are. If you find it hard to be civil because my views differ from yours, I call that a personal problem.

"I understand the stock market"

If that is so, share some of your golden insight with us.

I'm sure it will be illuminating.


So frankly, I don't give a hoot what your thoughts are. If you find it hard to be civil because my views differ from yours, I call that a personal problem.

The problem is, you don't really seem to have any clear views at all, so it's kind of hard for me to return the favor.

Let's see what we have so far:

The Stock Market is Unpredictable. It goes up and Down. Those who try to predict it are all wet.

You're right. You're a verifiable GENIUS :rofl:

Oh Mr. Gecko, I-dea-dea-dea-dea don't know HOW I could have doubted you. Shall we spend the Gold all in one place?

In April 1999, the Dow crossed 10000 for the first time.

http://stockcharts.com/charts/historical/djia1900.html

Yesterday, the market closed at 9870.

GDP inflation calculator shows that 10000 in 1999 needs to be 11886 to be even in 2009 (latest deflator available)

http://cost.jsc.nasa.gov/inflateGDP.html

That means, in real terms, not nominal, that the Dow has lost 17% of its value since 1999. That isn't up and down. That's down. If you go back to the historical chart, you'll see long term growth decade after decade. Until the last one, where it just bounces, and the only reason it bounces is because dishonestly, it is not adjusted for inflation. Adjusted, as you can see, it's down, and 17% is a pretty good whack.

So if we define normal as what's usual, the market has not been normal for the last decade or so. It has been running counter to history. You of course are free to do with your money what you please. But if someone asked me to line up for a 17% loss over a decade, I'd at least want the cover charge waived, a couple of free drinks, and a coupon for the buffet.

Just thought I'd inject some real numbers in here.

In 1987 the DOW went all the way down to 507.99 from 2,722.42, and people who came in at that low point made lots of money. In 2006 it went all the way to 12,000. People got out after that also make money. As I said, Up and Down.


There is no guarantee with the stock market, the market is high risk, but it has the highest returns and is the best way to make money. As I've said it's up and down, and it's a gamble.

I'm breaking this up because I don't want the post to be muddled down especially since my opinion varies from most opinions on this thread.


.....Whether a person makes money depends on at what point you invest in the stock market.

I've had 100% plus gains since 2008. The people who bought before that, not so much.


Also, you are predicting what you think the stock market will do, many have done that and have been wrong. The is reality just like some of the people in 1987 who cut their losses and probably lost out when the market went to 12,000, you just don't know.


Just like people who sold all their stock when the market was way down shortly after Obama was elected. Lost a lot of money because of fear.

You are just making predictions, as I said no one can predict the stock market period. If a person could predict then no one would make money because there would be no losses or gains.

Real numbers? Please! You haven't proven anything except that the market is unpredictable and does go up and down.

If you are afraid to be in the stock market and you can't make money there or you are afraid of losses


Then... you shouldn't be there period, so you are making the right choice for youself, but it might not be the right choice for others.

Rental units. Annual return over 200% year on year since 2000 without exception.

The only way you can make the yoyo effect real is to start in the mid-80s, but this ignores nearly a century of history before that.

You're still ignoring the real value rather than the nominal value by not deflating the numbers.

I'm not trying to convince you of anything in terms of what to do with your money. Studies show that day traders lose money 87% of the time. I reiterate, that if I am going to take steady losses, I want my cover charge comped, a couple of free drinks and a buffet coupon!

Gambling is not an investment. Investments have tangible results: factories are built, products are made, and so on. Turn of a card or combination of dominoes is not a product nor a service, and money changes hands.

Write this down, because I'm going to make a prediction for you: this market will hit 6000 by November and not rise above 10000 for at least two years after that. No theory is any good that can't be tested, so here's a test.

Of course, gambling does not involve anything but chance and house odds, so no predictions are possible there.

Write it down. I'll own it, and if I'm wrong, well, I'll be wrong. If I'm right, you'll have to give me credit for being a great guesser at least.

Right?

Except that there are people like me who make money in the stock market. What I'm trying to say is it's a personal choice.

The brokerage site, I trade on ranks rate of return and I can tell you that a lot of people make a lot money in the stock market.

Yes, people do lose money; the stock market is risky.


Before I started trading on my own, I did invest in mutual funds at a place that I worked and I remember that I could select the level or % of risk I was willing to take on and they would clearly explain that the stock market is among the riskiest of investments and that there is a possibly that investors could indeed lose money.


Now, I manage my own trades, I like it and I haven't lost any money. I'm mostly long term, but I do take profits every now and then if I want to upgrade or move in a different direction stock wise.


Prediction???? Many people have been making that same prediction since November 2008, so I won't bother to write it down, it's stuck in my head.

I'm not going to discount your predictions either: November 2010?


Although I don't think anyone really knows period and I'm not a big fan of predictions whether up or down, Who knows?

Thank you.

I was not citing any study.

While we are on the subject of statistics, studies and polls, I'm not a fan because numbers can be manipulated to produce whatever results a person wants to achieve depending on data retrieval and interview pool.


Again, I was not citing any study. Also, not likely that I would due to the fact that as I said statistics can be flawed.

Instead, I was citing what I know to be true, as far as, ranking of rate of return on the site I have my brokerage account at.

Also, the fact, that I and friends of mine have made money in the stock market and we are ordinary individual investors.

Good luck in all your future endeavors. I hope you don't have to suffer real financial hardship to open yourself out of your current foreclosed state.

that really discount anything intelligent that you actually said.

I don't believe that much of what you said was relevant to anything, but I'm not assuming that you are inexperienced and I'm mature enough to forgo insults and remain civil.

A mature person says all that they have to say without insults.

analysis in terms of unquantified personal anecdotes and then accusing others of incivility when they are introducing facts which run counter to your feelings is the definition of incivility. No reasons given for anything you say, such as the irrelevance of my comments without word one of analysis or even response.

But I've taught too long to be personally offended by young people and their self-centered worlds. Given time, they will overcome it. You will, too. I do hope you don't have to pay too large a financial price for your youth and faith-based approach, but if you do, you have decades to get over it (or not).

I wished you the best, and you accused me of bad manners. I still do, and invite you to be careful with projecting your own faults onto others. It betrays your lack of seasoning and judgment, and there comes a point when a puppy who poops on a floor changes into a full grown dog doing the same, and now it's no longer cute, nor funny, sometimes resulting in a terminal trip to the shelter.

So keep your eyes open, and if you cannot learn by listening to others, please learn by watching what you actually see, not what you wished you'd see.

the same, and now it's no longer cute, nor funny, sometimes resulting in a terminal trip to the shelter."

Just to save her the time and typing of doing so, what's going to occur here is that she will select this line from your post, get offended by it and claim it is a personal insult, then completely dismiss everything you said.

You can't win with people like this mbperrin, and although you are someone I hold a great deal of respect for around here, you are wasting your breath.

You are dealing with a young lamb who thinks she knows the score with whatever limited success she has had, if it's even the truth of the matter. I find it extremely difficult to believe that she has been a long term investor the past fifteen years in this Market Environment, and never lost any money.

Her position doesn't hold any water without any definitive proof, and even if "paper profits" have been made, there seems to be little to know understanding of those "gains" in relation to the value of real actual dollar value, since the currency has suffered such a devaluation the past seven years, some of which you attempted to point out in one of your posts.

Actual Asset value with respect to inflation DOES matter, and if you have no understanding of it, you can't claim you've made any great gains.

Paper Profits mean nothing, and you have no "profit" until the cash is in your pocket. The rest is just noise.

Personal anecdotes do not equal real information or analysis, and there seems to be little desire on this person's part to actually gain any real knowledge or direction from people far more experienced and knowledgeable than she is.

The result is "look at me an look at all the stuff I know" without any real substance to Back it up with. Any opposition results in "YOU'RE PICKING ON ME!!!!!!!!!1111111111111111"

It's child like and it's a waste of time and energy.

You can only hope that people like that will learn from experience, and as you said, not pay a high price for it.

You just can't reach some people. I've said for years the Financial Media and CNBC have done just as much damage to the small and individual investor as Goldman Sachs and The Banksters.

As for myself, I've followed this Shell Game since '87 and I STILL don't think I know as much as I should. I'm constantly learning new things, especially the past 10 years, which has put everything I THOUGHT I knew the previous 15 to rest.

I guess I just don't have any patience any longer for the Sheep Herd mentality. It's far too late in the game, and those that keep following this over a cliff are going to pay a VERY high price for it.

I have no idea why I am even kicking this further, because it just adds incentive to the "I'll Show YOU, I won't back down from ANYTHING, I'll put you in your place" mentality, which is just going to result in more embarrassment.

I just think you made some VERY good points, that unfortunately have gotten lost by "selective" perception.

I had thought that maybe I was just wasting my breath, so I had decided on one last gasp. I value your comments and analysis, and your posts are always spot on.

You are absolutely right about the media role in all this nonsense; they couldn't find a reason NOT to buy on any given day, regardless. Media awareness is one of the first things I try to teach my own students, with mixed results, ranging from "That's interesting. I think I'll keep my skeptical switch turned on," to "Are you one of those nutty conspiracy theory guys, Mr. P?"

Thanks again, and you're right, I should have let this die a while back, really.

in writing for the lurkers.

Your wisdom has not gone unnoticed or unappreciated.


:yourock:





Tansy Gold, who has never forgotten that she, too, was a lurker once upon a time

:)

Thank YOU for keeping wild tigers like me honest. :hug:

If your opinions were relevant, there's no need for incivility.

You say, the information that you gave concludes that you are experienced in the stock market and that your predictions are conclusive.

This does not correlate with the fact that you have been out of the stock market since 2000 and missed being in the market before the highest Dow in history, DOW 14,000 in Oct of 09 or missed getting in at the low DOW of 6,000 over this past decade If you can some how predict where the future of the stock market would be in a 4 month period.


Given that, I could make all sorts of insulting snide comments if I were less logical, but I see no need. People reading a post will take away from it whatever they want, no need for insults.

You have offered nothing in the way of real information, only personal antidotes, and you have not provided one iota of counter-analysis to ANY of the relevant information that was given to you.

Or maybe it's because that any information or facts that are presented that don't tell you what you want to hear, or agree with what you think you know, you dismiss as insults or irrelevant.

If you were a savvy, nimble Pit Trader or Day Trader, with the ability to scalp profits on the long and short side, knowing when to use tight stops, etc, and believe me, I know a few, I'd take you more seriously, but to claim you haven't lost one dime as a buy and holder long-term the past 10 years is a bit hard to believe, to say the least.

You seem to be a Groupthink herd bot who has seen too many episodes of "Fast Money", and thinks that daily commentary from hacks like Larry Kudlow actually has substance.

You claim to want civility and open discussion, but you are completely closed to anything that is at odds with what you want to be true. If you think you're so smart and savvy, why even bother hanging around this thread, Mickey? You already know everything there is to know about investing, so why waste your time with a bunch of "irrelevant" fools like us?

As for this statement, which I nominate for Most Sophomoric Analysis Of The Market for this year:

"This does not correlate with the fact that you have been out of the stock market since 2000 and missed being in the market before the highest Dow in history, DOW 14,000 in Oct of 09 or missed getting in at the low DOW of 6,000 over this past decade If you can some how predict where the future of the stock market would be in a 4 month period."

Did you even read any of what he wrote? The fact you have absolutely no demonstrable clue that they are PLENTY other investment vehicles other than stocks that one could make a very nice return on the past 10 years only shows me you likely started investing when Motley Fool registered for their domain name.

Did YOU make a 200% return on your precious little Bubble Portfolio the past 10 years. Unless you can produce something tangible that says you even came close, I'd say he pretty much kicked your ass in the smart investment moves department. He actually had his money in something tangible with outstanding returns, while you were sipping Frappacinos waiting for Cramer to tell you what the next big Market move was going to be, admiring your imaginary Paper Profits.

And while we're on the subject of facts, The Market hit 14,000 in October of 2007 not 2009. I would have thought that a rich, brash, young self-made investor such as yourself would AT LEAST be able to get their DATES straight.

"Given that, I could make all sorts of insulting snide comments if I were less logical, but I see no need. People reading a post will take away from it whatever they want, no need for insults.

You could do that, but you would only be making a bigger fool out of yourself than you already have.

As for what people will take away from these posts, if they are knowledgeable and can think for themselves, they'll rightly dismiss you as an escapee from the Yahoo Finance chat boards, who is doing a very competent job of demonstrating how astoundingly sparse their knowledge of the Markets and Economics in general is.

All this talk about civility, when in an ultimate sting of irony, when you began posting your brilliant insights here, you came to us as an arrogant know-it-all, basically pooh-poohing everything you saw here in an EMBARRASSINGLY thinly veiled way.


But when someone tried to engage with you and actually tried to enlighten you with you their knowledge and experience, in order to make you understand where your logic was flawed, genuinely trying to point you in a more intelligent direction and challenged you to broaden your perspective, you screamed how you were being picked on and persecuted.

I find it hard to believe that someone as thin-skinned, short-sighted, and terminally selective in their logic and reason as you can have a conversation with anyone other than yourself.

If you actually had substance to back up your self-confident all-knowing nature, I'd gladly engage in spirited debate with you.

But your understanding of economics in general seems to be so limited, and so diametrically opposed to the perceived vast knowledge you think you have, it would be a waste of time.

I don't think anyone has ever made it to my permanent Ignore List so fast.

I would be like mbperrin and try to wish you the best, but with the level of understanding you are approaching the game with, I would be lying to you, and the best thing to do is hope that when you get your head handed to you by the harsh blade of experience, it won't cost you everything.

If you've actually made money, you did so likely and largely due to dumb luck, not knowledge and experience.

And I know how much you hate insults and all that, but since you are so closed to any kind of information other than what you want to hear or to be true, what else is there to do with you?

Trying to have a discussion with you is about as productive as watching a Blank Tape.

Or watching CNBC's Market Coverage at any point on any given day. :)

Bye Now. :hi:

1. It's not compromise if it all goes one way. Obama and the Dems could and should stand firm. Let the pukes filibuster, let them get NOTHING, because at least then ALL the onus is on them. But Obama and the Dems will never do that. They would rather have a tiny victory that benefits a few and hurts many, than no victory at all. You say you don't understand that? Neither do I.

2. The stock market IS behaving as usual, and that's the problem. There's no there there. It shouldn't be a casino. Risk-free, no, of course not. But all-risk, all the time? No, not that, yet that's pretty much what we've got. There's no stability, and that's no way to run a business.

3. The stock market hasn't made any real gains in what, 10 years? Working people's effective wages have declined. The gap between the top 1% and the rest of the hoi polloi has widened astronomically. FIRE has taken over the economy from agriculture and manufacturing.

4. The stock market does not bear any relation to The Economy. The Economy is real people's real lives, real jobs, real schools, real children, real cars, real doctors. The stock market is alphabet soup.



Tansy Gold, for the lurkers

One of the biggest problems we have right now in our country is that most of our Population has been systematically brainwashed into believing the Stock market IS the Economy, and only seem to pay attention when something out of sorts like 2008 happens to it.

It's just a Casino, driven mostly by The Fed, The Printing Presses of Infinite Exploding Fiat, the Big Trading Goons like Goldman Sachs, and High Frequency, Algo-Driven Robot Skynet Boxes that account for the majority of ALL trading on the exchange on any given day.

The other major Problem is people keep buying into all the feel good Propaganda they hear and completely disconnect themselves with any kind of tangible reality.

And then we wonder why we keep repeating history.

People need to UNLEARN what they have learned.

And that will be their first important step to escaping the Truman Show they are living in.

I said that "same thing with many conservative or red state democrats"


Meaning many conservative or red state democrats are not going along with reform in general. So, it's not even about democrats standing their ground. Some democrat afraid of losing their seats are not going to vote for reform.


Therefore Obama has to compromise period. Meaning he is compromising with democrats and not conservatives. All democrats are not on the same page period.

:sarcasm:

Of course I read it. Duh.


Now, here's the thing: Obama and Reid need to take some lessons from Pelosi, and you can take that comment a couple different ways. If you take it as a radical feminist suggestion, you'd be close to correct. But Reid does have the power to make threats/promiseds/offers to keep the party united, and if he doesn't use that power appropriately, then he should be replaced.

The Obama compromises have NOT been with the rogue Dems but with the hardline, partyline pukes. That shouldn't be happening. Not at all, not ever, not even considered. The fact that there are compromises offered -- and few are actually accepted -- suggests that Obama, Reid, and (though to a lesser extent) Pelosi don't know how to make politics work.

And frankly, I can't say I'm surprised. Disgusted a bit, but not really surprised.



TG. NTY

Yet, you didn't understand that I was talking about democrats and compromise and not the republicans and no I'm not being sarcastic.

Stability and the stock market?

You can't be serious. The term I lost my shirt in the stock market has been around for decades because the stock market has never been stable.

As far as gains?

The stock market went up to 12,000 in in 2006, meaning people who got in before then made money, people who got in after lost money. This is the nature of the stock market.


Also, right after Obama's election there was a frenzy of fear and the Dow went as low as 6,000, but now seems to see-saw between about 10,000 and right below 10,000 which as an investor I think is pretty good considering where we've been.

Since I've been in the stock market I've made money and I would call myself a long-term investor.

Also, all the way up to 10,000 people have been predicting Dow 4,000 and it just hasn't happened.

Predictions of the stock market and elections are for the most part nonsense because no one really knows how people are going to react, and for the most part are basing their prediction on their own internal feelings.

I never, ever, let myself be guided by someones rhetoric or predictions when buying stocks. Lots of people have lost money that way.

That's exactly what it was like on the floor all day today.

It seems to have spilled into Stock Market Watch as well

So.....get short commodities and equities.
Suckers

Keep buying, Sunshine.

Don't listen to us "fascists". Everything is Just fine.

:rofl:

I'm telling you you're being sandbagged, is all.

You just keep believing that, Captain.

For the past 15 months The Fed, The White House, and The Media have successfully "sandbagged" the Public into believing there is some sort of Recovery. All this is, despite what you may want to believe, is another Bubble Bursting, just like 2001, just like 2008. That's all it ever was.

There was never anything fundamentally or technically to support the ridiculous advance in equities that we have seen. Propaganda, the Printing Presses, and HFT Algo-Driven Robot Boxes have helped create the illusion that millions of misled Americans desperately want to believe to be true, but has no basis in actual reality.

Keep believing in "The Recovery", keep believing everything CNBC feeds you.


That way, when the Hard Rain REALLY starts to fall, you won't even know you're getting wet. :rofl:

Quick! Quick! Cramer is On. Hurry, Hurry, TURN IT ON or you WON'T KNOW WHAT TO THINK!

Any other pearls to share?

Because if this is your idea of "putting all the SMW doomers in their place", I have to say.....

I'm embarrassed for you. :)

We have to begin producing again, period. I don't see that happening. Companies are improving their bottom line by continuing to shrink their companies while maintaining out put. That's not going to solve the unemployment/underemployment problem in the least.

Everything else is just pixierainbowdust.

There was a story out not too long ago highlighting that companies have been engaging in the process of REFUSING TO HIRE ANYONE WHO IS CURRENTLY UNEMPLOYED.

How EXACTLY is this supposed to fix the Unemployment Problem?

There are MANY VERY QUALIFIED PEOPLE that would be IDEAL additions to any company.

How are they supposed to re-enter the Job Market if they cannot get hired because......

THEY DON'T CURRENTLY HAVE A JOB.

As I have said time and again......

Rome was SANE and ORDERLY compared to us.

to eliminate the unemployed who've probably been that way for well over a year, quite often two. The government needs to make that kind of discrimination ILLEGAL.

Not just more ill-educated profligate-energy and finite-resource-consuming environmental (and psycho-social) destruction. That's not sustainable.

I'd certainly let you know. My husband has been in manufacturing as an engineer since 1987 and has switched industries more times than I can remember, trying to stay ahead of the tide going out overseas. He almost switched over to a new type of renewable fuel cell but at the last moment changed his mind, but may go that direction if the new job he has (pharmaceutical supplies) doesn't pan out. All I know is that we need to MAKE (responsible) THINGS and not rely on service-industry jobs to change our economic direction. For one, we need a real way out of our dependence upon fossil fuels.