STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday July 8

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday July 8, 2010

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Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

08:30 Continuing Claims 06/26
Briefing.com 4600K
Consensus 4600K
Prior 4616K

08:30 Initial Claims 07/03
Briefing.com 465K
Consensus 460K
Prior 472K

11:00 Crude Inventories 07/03
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior -2.01M

15:00 Consumer Credit May
Briefing.com -$2.5B
Consensus -$3.0B
Prior $1.0B

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

first time unemployment claims?
or counting the people currently collecting unemployment?
Because if it is the latter, I can see how Congress' dropping so many people last week
worked to boost the market.

08:30 Continuing Claims 06/26
Actual 4413K
Prior 4637K
Revised from 4616K

08:30 Initial Claims 07/03
Actual 454K
Prior 475K
Revised from 472K

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

11:00 Crude Inventories 07/03
Actual -4.96M
Prior -2.01M

I wonder if people expected 'Crude Reports' to be from The Onion?






Oh - what the hell. Here's a crude report.

LONDON – Oil prices climbed to near $75 a barrel Thursday in European trading, extending big gains from the previous session as global stock markets rallied.

Most major European stock markets advanced Thursday after the Dow Jones industrial average soared 2.8 percent during Wednesday's session in New York, breaking a two-week sell-off. Oil traders often look to equities as a barometer of overall investor confidence and future demand for crude.

Analyists at Petromatrix said drops in U.S. supplies of oil blamed on Hurricane Alex also bolstered prices. However, Thursday's gains don't necesssarily mean oil prices will continue to increase on a long-term basis, analysts said.

Crude inventories plunged 7.3 million barrels last week, the American Petroleum Institute said late Wednesday, more than the drop of 3.5 million barrels forecast in an analyst survey by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

When stock indices are down, oil prices may go down due to concerns about the economy.
Not due to supply and demand.
When stock indices are up, oil prices may go up due to the thinking that all is rosy again with the economy.
Not due to supply and demand.
And if stocks are up, and oil prices go up as well, then stocks fall due to concerns of inflation.

I haven't had a drink of alcohol in years, but it might be time for one. Or something.....

(More often than not) Stock indexes up....Dollar up, markets down:toast:

Either that or use heavy duty intravenous drugs. All day. Every day.

These prices became disconnected from supply and demand years ago. Occasionally, there is a casual mention of the fundamentals traders should pay attention to when setting spot prices. But they don't really mean anything.

Trading at speeds faster than a rumor is hot work...dontchaknow

BP Investigates Resignation of 18 Traders
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-07/bp-investigates-resignation-of-18-traders-singapore-s-business-times-says.html

BP Plc is probing the resignation of 18 traders mainly from its Singapore operations, the Business Times reported, citing an unidentified person.

The person declined to specify what BP was investigating, the Singapore-based newspaper reported. The report said the traders had made up almost its entire fuel oil trading team in Singapore.

BP has since hired replacements and brought its fuel oil trading operations back to normal, according to the newspaper.

Pek Hak Bin, BP’s Singapore president, yesterday said at a presentation that the company is committed to growing its business, the report also said.

-------

The resignations happened at the beginning of May. Another article said even the team leader resigned. It also went on to say that the resignations came "amid some market talk of possible trading losses".

CHICAGO (Reuters) – The U.S. economic recovery is slowing, but the Federal Reserve does not need to do more to help it along, Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher said on Wednesday.

The Fed, the U.S. central bank, has kept short-term interest rates at near zero since December 2008, and has bought more than $1 trillion in mortgage-backed securities to blunt the worst downturn since the Great Depression.

The Fed does not need to buy more assets, and should be careful about "going too far," he said, although not because of concerns over inflation, which he said is not an issue.

Buying more assets "could do damage by damaging our credibility," he said.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100707/bs_nm/us_usa_fed_fisher

:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:

However I thought the response would be something more like, "WHAT credibility?!?"

Your actual response is nonetheless appreciated. :rofl:

speechless.

:hi:

It was totally unexpected. :rofl:

Having watched these clowns, probably both.

Somebody is trying to imitate Greenspan at his foggiest....

...Sentiment turned upbeat after the Dow Jones industrial average surged 274.66 points, or 2.8 percent, to 10,018.28 on Wednesday — finishing above 10,000 for the first time since late June. The State Street profit forecast boosted financial stocks and relieved some of the worries about the upcoming quarterly earnings.

More positive news came from the IMF raising its 2010 global growth forecast to 4.6 percent from 4.1 percent amid what it called a faster-than-expected economic recovery. Yet the Washington-based fund said Europe's debt crisis could stall the rebound and urged governments to shore up fragile confidence.

As trading got started in Europe, benchmarks in Britain and France were up about 1 percent while Germany's DAX was up 0.5 percent. Wall Street futures augured modest profit taking in the U.S. with Dow futures off 26 points, or 0.3 percent, at 9,954.

Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index jumped 256.09, or 2.8 percent, to 9,535.74 and South Korea's Kospi added 1.4 percent to 1,698.64. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 climbed 2.4 percent to 4,356.70.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100708/ap_on_bi_ge/world_markets

HONG KONG (Reuters) – The International Monetary Fund upgraded its 2010 global growth forecast on Thursday, citing robust expansion in Asia and renewed U.S. private demand, but warned the euro area's debt crisis posed a big risk to recovery.

The IMF said the euro zone's sovereign financing problems and resulting financial market turbulence were significant challenges, especially with the web of financial and trade links connecting Europe to the world. However, a double-dip world recession was highly unlikely.

The fund raised its 2010 global output forecast to 4.6 percent from 4.2 percent in April's review of the global economy, but kept its 2011 view unchanged at 4.3 percent.

Under one scenario -- assuming shocks to the global financial system resulting from Europe's debt problems are as severe as those experienced in the wake of Lehman Brothers' failure in 2008 -- world GDP growth in 2011 would be reduced by 1.5 percentage points, the IMF said.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100708/bs_nm/us_imf_outlook

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The IMF has cut its growth forecasts for 2011 for most regions: euro zone, Canada, Japan, emerging economies and Britain.

TOKYO, July 8 (Reuters) - The euro surged to a two-month high and Asian stocks were set for their best gains in over two weeks on Thursday after a bullish company forecast fuelled optimism about the coming U.S. earnings season and underpinned a slow return by investors to riskier assets. Further good news came with the release of Australian employment figures that surged well above forecasts, promising to boost household incomes and spending and pushing the Australian dollar to its highest since late June.

...

The MSCI index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan rose 2.2 percent to its highest since June 29, and looked set for its best one-day performance since June 21, led by materials and financial shares. Japan's benchmark Nikkei average rose 2.8 percent to 9,535.74 points to mark its best one-day rise in over a month, with exporters especially strong performers.

But market watchers were wary about whether the gains would last, noting that the Nikkei was finding it difficult to extend its rise much past 9,500. Recent attempts at rallies in many markets have quickly succumbed to profit-taking, highlighting weak investor confidence and concerns that the global economic recovery may be losing momentum. Strong company earnings reports and sales forecasts in coming weeks could soothe some of those fears.

...

Australian shares were the next strongest performer in the region after Japan, gaining 2.2 percent, with banks leading a broad-based rally. June Australian employment figures, released mid-morning, surged to 45,900, far above market forecasts of 17,500 in a Reuters poll, and the unemployment rate eased, reviving talk of an interest rate hike in the next few months and eroding arguments for a possible cut.

/... http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2010-07/17355380-rpt-global-markets-stocks-climb-euro-and-aussie-up-in-asia-020.htm

Nikkei climbs 2.8 pct, pulls back from 7-month low

On Tuesday, the Nikkei slid as low as 9,091.70, just above the November 2009 low of 9,076 and the July 2009 low of 9,050. The Nikkei has tested 9,000 three times recently, making the level strong support, market players say.

Market players said the Nikkei's next immediate upward target now lies around 9,590, a 38.2 percent retracement of its move down from its June 21 close to the July 1 close.

Another upward target stands around 9,700, or its 25-day moving average, which is a proxy for a one-month moving average that is keenly watched in Japan.

On the charts, the outlook for the Nikkei appears to be brightening. Its MACD, a measure of market momentum, has started to pick up, while its slow stochastic -- a measure of how oversold the market is and whether it is in a short-term up or down trend -- has turned higher after falling in June, moving away from oversold territory.

/... http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2010-07/17356307-refile-nikkei-climbs-2-8-pct-pulls-back-from-7-month-low-020.htm

When Lehman Brothers engaged in the Repo 105 deals that flattered its balance sheet to the tune of $50bn, a string of powerful banks acted as counterparties. But according to financial experts sifting through the Lehman wreckage, there was one surprising name on that list: the Banque de France.

In the final months before Lehman’s demise, the Financial Times has learnt, the French central bank was often on the other side of the bank’s deals, taking collateral in the process.

The Banque de France continued to cut deals with Lehman even as other private sector enterprises were cutting their ties with the bank – or demanding “ridiculous levels” of compensation to engage in such dealings, according to internal Lehman e-mails included by Anton Valukas, the Lehman Examiner, in his report.

These opaque deals, sometimes struck by central banks to maintain confidence in the health of troubled institutions, can have an unseen impact on the behaviour of markets.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7834dc62-89e5-11df-bd30-00144feab49a.html

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Thanks to Po_d Mainiac for the tip on this news item. Central banks are reported to have abandoned this practice because it can manipulate the bond market. When the news breaks of this kind of intervention (and it will break eventually) the bond market can go crazy - damaging healthy economies and healthy institutions.

this is a fairly long article dealing with the departure of Fed President Carrigan...Written in 1993

Several of the nation's largest commercial banks, which are headquartered in Corrigan's second Fed district, are or until recently have been by any rational, market-oriented measure insolvent and should have been closed or merged away years ago. Concern about the threat to the financial markets of "systemic risk" is used to keep big banks alive, and also as a broad justification for all types of market intervention.

<snip>

In addition to the exponential growth in markets such as interest rate swaps, another side effect of expansionary monetary policy has been an increase in market volatility generally. When the great mountain of dollars created by the Fed during the previous decade suddenly moved out of U.S. equities on Black Monday, October 19, 1987, the New York Fed under Corrigan reportedly urged private banks to purchase stock index futures to stabilize cash prices on the New York Stock Exchange. Corrigan bluntly told commercial banks to lend to brokers in order to help prop the market up, and dealers were even allowed to borrow collateral directly from the Fed in order to alleviate a short-squeeze. Orchestrating such a financial rescue is still intervention in the free market, albeit of an indirect nature.

<snip>

And yet when the Salomon scandal broke open, it was apparent that the hands-on "management" of markets prescribed by Corrigan had failed to prevent one of the great financial scandals of the century. "Neither in Washington nor in New York did the Fed seem aware that the dangers of failure to supervise this market had grown exponentially in 1991," Mayer notes in an early draft of his upcoming book on the Salomon debacle. "Like the Federal Home Loan Bank Board in its pursuit of making the S&Ls look solvent in 1981-82, the Fed had adopted tunnel-vision policies to save the nation's banks. And just as excessive kindness to S&Ls in the early 1980s had drawn to the trough people who should not have been in the thrift business, Fed monetary policies in the early 1990s created a carnival in the government bond business."

The Salomon crisis was not the only bogie on the scope in 1991. During December of 1990, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, working in concert with several private institutions, fashioned a secret rescue package for Chase Manhattan Bank when markets refused to lend money to the troubled banking giant. While Chase officials vociferously deny that any bailout occurred, the pattern of discount window loans during the period and off-the-record statements by officials at the Fed and several private banks suggest very strongly that Corrigan's personal intervention prevented a major banking crisis at the end of 1990

http://www.rcwhalen.com/pdf/fishing.pdf

Market manipulation by the Fed along with propping up zombie banks...Nothing new...Has the can reached the cliff at the end of the Lane?

They want free markets? Let's Give them Free Markets!

Let's take out the zombies and the Fed.

Hedge-fund managers, Wall Street’s best compensated and supposedly smartest investors, are dazed and confused. Reeling from the worst second-quarter performance in a decade, hedge funds have scaled back trading as they struggle to figure out where markets are headed amid sometimes vicious crosscurrents in stock, commodities and other markets, according to brokers and managers.

“There’s a degree of being frozen in the headlights, of not knowing what sectors to emphasize, of what securities to emphasize,” said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment officer of Solaris Asset Management LLC, a Bedford Hills, New York-based firm with $2 billion in hedge-funds and conventional stock- funds.

Hedge fund managers, who oversee $1.67 trillion in assets, are reluctant to put money to work as they are buffeted by a wide range of often conflicting political and economic forces, from fiscal policy in Europe and the U.S., to what regulations will be imposed on the financial-services and energy industries, to the growth prospects in China. In turn, smaller and fewer trades may make it harder for funds to rebound from losses incurred since May, when the industry suffered its worst decline in 18 months.

“For many people, it’s a frustrating market given the high volatility and low volumes,” said Aaron Garvey, portfolio manager at MKP Capital Management LLC, a New York-based hedge fund overseeing $3.5 billion. “We are seeing strong opposing forces in the markets, which makes generating strong convictions difficult for the medium- and long-term.”

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-08/hedge-funds-frozen-in-headlights-scale-back-trading-in-perilous-markets.html

Who the hell knows where anything is headed when there is so much volatility in the markets. Triple-digit swings provide poor targets when the volatility affects quality stocks and index funds. Good investments can take a nonsensical hit when traders are burned on bad bets, as traders will unload stable assets to cover losses.

hedgies are themselves now the target, of a much more relentless group of market actors.

find this totally unexpected.

These hedge fund managers, supposedly so smart, still have not figured out that they're playing with toy money. It's not real. We're talking basic Econ 101 (with a little "Capital" thrown in for good measure) that they somehow seem to have either slept through or never took.

Of course, I never took it either. . . . .

But where do they think all their money came from? Seriously, do they think "the market" creates the money just because they're passing stocks or other "investment vehicles" back and forth for ever higher prices?

How fucking stupid are they?



Tansy Gold, NTY

You really spell out one major component of this trading scheme.

Seriously, do they think "the market" creates the money just because they're passing stocks or other "investment vehicles" back and forth for ever higher prices?

Oil is a good example. A barrel of oil is traded between 25 and 30 times before it reaches the refinery. Then the refined product is traded back-and-forth, each time nudging the price higher.

Sure it's a rigged game. Masters of the Universe® make it so.

But we, being NOT the smartest guys in the room, already knew that.

I'm just shaking my head here in the wonder of how these people actually manage to put one foot in front of the other and walk upright.

(A friend's 90-something mother has Alzheimer's but is still capable of being cared for at home. It is, however, very sad to watch my friend walk her mother to her room and occasionally have to remind her which foot to move forward, or how to negotiate the turn from the living room into the hallway, then from the hallway into her room. The fiscal blindness exhibited by the charlatans of Wall Street surpasses the mental deterioration of an advanced Alzheimer's victim.)


TG, NTY and way behind deadline on today's paid work

But now we are seeing the result of unabated inbreeding.

They will hit the peak when they are all bankrupt.

TOKYO, July 8 (Reuters) - Japanese machinery orders tumbled by the most in almost two years in May as companies grew more cautious about the business outlook due to a rising yen and signs of a global economic slowdown. Bank lending in June also fell, matching the biggest annual decline in almost five years, as demand from companies for funds to invest in plants and equipment remained sluggish.

...

Core private-sector machinery orders, a highly volatile series regarded as an indicator of capital spending, fell 9.1 percent in May, the biggest decline since August 2008 and far more than the median market forecast for a 3.1 percent decline. ... Machinery orders from manufacturers fell 13.5 percent in May, faster than a 5.5 percent decline the previous month.

The effects of government stimulus measures for energy-efficient electrical appliances have started to dwindle, Keisuke Tsumura, parliamentary secretary of the Cabinet Office, told a news conference, adding that the pace of recovery in capital spending could be slower than anticipated.

...

The government maintained its view that machinery orders are picking up, reflecting improvement in service-sector orders. Core orders, which exclude those for ships and machinery at electric power firms, rose 4.3 percent in May from a year earlier, less than the median estimate for a 10.7 percent rise.

/... http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2010-07/17355910-wrapup-2-japan-machinery-orders-slide-on-economy-doubts-020.htm

BERLIN, July 8 (Reuters) - German trade with the rest of the world surged in May in part due to companies seeking to make up for transport delays caused by a volcanic ash cloud in April. The trade surplus for Europe's largest economy unexpectedly shrank because of a record increase in imports, though exports also leapt after a marked decline in April, preliminary figures from the Federal Statistics Office showed on Thursday.

Imports climbed 14.8 percent on the month in seasonally adjusted terms, the biggest increase since German reunification in 1990, the Office said. The imports were worth 70.3 billion euros ($88.5 billion), the largest sum on record, Bundesbank data showed. Exports climbed by 9.2 percent from April to 80.8 billion euros. Overall, Germany's adjusted trade surplus narrowed to 10.6 billion euros in May from a revised 12.8 billion euros in April. A surplus of 13.5 billion euros had been forecast.

'The demand is very strong for German goods, especially from developing nations like China,' said Juergen Michels, an economist for Citigroup in London. 'The weaker euro is starting to have an effect as well. The German economy will likely have expanded by 1 percent in the second quarter,' he said.

...

A key survey last Thursday showed that the manufacturing sector expanded for a ninth month running in June, growing at the same pace as in May despite signs austerity measures abroad may be slowing demand.. However, industrial orders unexpectedly fell slightly in May due to a dip in big ticket items, data showed on Wednesday. The latest trade figures also helped to shrink Germany's unadjusted current account surplus to 2.2 billion euros.

/... http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2010-07/17356058-update-1-record-import-surge-narrows-german-trade-surplus-020.htm

LONDON, July 8 (Reuters) - British industrial output rose faster than expected in May, taking its annual rate of growth to its highest in almost 10 years despite heavy downward revisions to April's figures, official data showed on Thursday.

...

'May's UK industrial production figures perhaps add to recent evidence that the pace of economic recovery may have peaked in Q2. Although overall production rose by a healthy 0.7 percent, that was driven by a sharply monthly rise in the energy components. The core manufacturing component rose by a less impressive 0.3 percent.

'Provided that output posts a reasonable gain in June, industry overall should still make a slightly stronger contribution to GDP growth in Q2 than it did in Q1. However, with forward-looking survey indicators of activity in both the industrial and service sectors recently softening -- and the effects of the enormous fiscal squeeze yet to kick in -- Q2 may turn out to be as good as it gets.'

...

'The sense we have is this is going to be as good as it gets for a while. The large fall in sterling should help, and we should have a turnaround in the stock cycle which should be powering growth, but some of that competitive edge versus the euro is slipping.

/... http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2010-07/17357288-instant-view-7-uk-industrial-output-up-more-than-fcast-in-may-020.htm

ISTANBUL, July 8 (Reuters) - Turkey's industrial output rose 15.6 percent year-on-year in May, the statistics institute said on Thursday, underscoring expectations for robust economic growth this year. Industrial production grew 1.9 percent month-on-month, when adjusted for seasonal factors.

...

Turkey's economy grew by 11.7 percent year-on-year in the first quarter, partly on the back of a low base effect after a 14.3 percent contraction in the same period in 2009.

...

Inflation has slowed in recent months taking pressure off the central bank to raise interest rates sooner.

/... http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2010-07/17356713-update-1-turkey-industrial-output-up-15-6-pct-y-y-in-may-020.htm

ANKARA, July 8 (Reuters) - Turkish Central Bank Governor Durmus Yilmaz said on Thursday the country's economic recovery would be slow and gradual and that it was driven by domestic demand.

Recent data has shown a slowdown in export orders and economic problems in Europe, Turkey's biggest export market, poses a risk for Turkey, Yilmaz said in a speech in the town of Denizli. His remarks were broadcast live by CNBC-e television.

/... http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2010-07/17356775-turkey-economic-recovery-to-be-slow-gradual-c-bank-020.htm

LONDON, July 8 (Reuters) - European bank shares rose on Thursday as a test of 91 banks for their resilience against further economic and market shocks was not considered too severe or onerous for the industry, analysts and dealers said.

The Committee of European Banking Supervisors (CEBS), which is tasked with running the health check, said after European markets closed on Wednesday it would test banks' resilience assuming economic growth 3 percent below official Brussels forecasts. The test, whose results will be released on July 23, will also include losses on some government bonds, based on a deterioration of market conditions similar to the situation observed in early May 2010. But details of the stress test were limited, including on the scale of markdowns on sovereign debt, seen as the key issue.

...

By 0710 GMT the STOXX Europe 600 bank sector index was up 1.6 percent, adding to a near 8 percent rally over the last two days, also helped by positive comments by analysts at Credit Suisse and gains by U.S. peers. Gainers were led by France's BNP Paribas and Societe Generale, up over 2 percent, and Royal Bank of Scotland, up 4 percent.

/... http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2010-07/17356262-europe-bank-stress-test-not-seen-harsh-shares-up-020.htm

Analysts' comments:

'The good news is twofold. There are 91 banks, a very wide scope, including (Spanish) cajas and (German) landesbanken. That will give not a full but a wide picture of the European banking system. That's good news one. Good news two is that it will be published on a bank-by-bank basis as well and you will have the ability to see each name.

The bad news is that there are very few details on the assumptions, especially on sovereign. In reality, nothing. The numbers I've seen are 16, 17 (percent haircut) on Greek debt, 8 Portuguese, 3 Spain, 0.7 France and zero Germany. That is coming from an unidentified source and if it is true it is quite far away from the real numbers on the market. Greek debt is facing a discount between 30 to 50 (percent) on the trading market.'

...

'Looks like a pretty smooth test. The (European Union) predicts economic growth of Europe to reach 1.0 percent this year and 1.7 percent next year. The IMF predicts GDP of the Euro Area to expand 1.4 percent in real terms this and 1.6 percent next year. It has raised the growth forecast for GDP globally to 4.6 percent this year. Given the development of credit default swaps in May most of the risk of a sovereign default has been priced in. As a result good news for banks.'

/... http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2010-07/17356736-analysts-view-european-banking-stress-tests-020.htm

LONDON, July 8 (Reuters) - European shares rose on Thursday morning, with the banking sector higher ahead of the European Central Bank's interest rate decision and its news conference likely to focus on bank stress tests... By 0837 GMT, the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index of top shares was up 0.6 percent at 1,012.35 points.

...

'When the market has been oversold and you're faced with an event which you are not sure about it is wise to buy the market as you could be sitting on a nice profit.'

...

Technical charts showed there had been some support for the Euro STOXX 50, the euro zone's blue-chip index, at the 2,500 level. The index was up 0.5 percent to 2,648.31 points.

...

Across Europe, the FTSE 100 index was up 1.1 percent, Germany's DAX was 0.4 percent higher and France's CAC 40 rose 0.9 percent.

/... http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2010-07/17357342-banks-boost-european-shares-await-boe-ecb-020.htm

All banks with branches in a city/town are now listed, vs. just their Corporate home.

Is this the correct link?
http://banktracker.investigativereportingworkshop.org/banks/

My mother called yesterday to ask some questions about Synovus. She says that Synovus has changed its structure such that every branch is all the same bank. There is no differentiation, she says, between an account under her name in Georgia and an account under her name in Florida. They are one. This suggests to me that Synovus is limiting its FDIC insurance premiums through this practice. When I look at the bank's troubled assets then I see serious trouble.

So first: I would like to ask here if the organizational structure of this bank -all branches are legally under the same roof- is unusual. Second: what do you make of the limits placed on FDIC insurance per depositor?

Thank you.

I was checking out BB$T, where my dad parked his money when he moved down here. They're double.

When the FDIC moves in, the "troubled assets" seem to increase 30-65% instantly...It's that whole marking assets to myth thingy biting Sheila's derriere. (ps.. you can take this to the bank!)

I've compared the numbers that banks have filed vs. FDIC write-offs for well over a year...Written about the issue either here or in the Economy Forum several times.

The big boys are zombie's, just a matter of time before the run starts...

I wonder if Geithner and Summers are aware that this happens when a bank's shitty assets are either bought or assumed almost every Friday evening?

Not cherry-picking just chose the first bank on the FDIC closed list

First American Bank
Headquartered in Artesia, NM

Troubled assets listed March 31, 2010 at $11,066,000
"The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $20.9 million":wtf:

http://banktracker.investigativereportingworkshop.org/banks/new-mexico/artesia/first-american-bank/
http://www.fdic.gov/news/news/press/2010/pr10145.html
.............................
I'm sure that The White House Financial team is "amazed" and "surprised" at the slight discrepancy in the figures.

Europe was thrilled to embrace the same stress tests for it's institutions
:puke:

As of March. Makes me think the bank president was blowing a lot of smoke at us on June 24th.

How could that bank still be operating? Surely - they have received boxes of correspondence from the FDIC and your state comptroller.

They were under an order from the FDIC signed May 31 to either sell or merge with someone with real money in 90 days, which would have been end of June....we met with the CEO on Jun 24th, and he said they are cleaning up their delinquents and trying to get out of the holding company that is nation-wide by raising enough ransom capital. It will be interesting to see the next update--probably end of July?--on how well they are doing. Hasn't been closed yet...or merged or sold.

He was adamant he had no intention of going out of business, and said if they had a plan for the FDIC, they would be allowed to work on it...we will see.

An account is covered to $250,000. As long as there are different holders on the account, each is covered to the max.

If your mom has each account in her name only, then she is only covered to the max, with all accounts added together. If she has a joint account with your name on it, then her single accounts are covered separately from the joint account..NOTE: Adding an authorized signer to an account does not make the account a joint holding.

Thus:
Husband has account/s...covered to $250,000
Wife has account/s..covered to $250,000
Husband and wife have a joint account/s..covered to $250,000
Husband, wife, and kid have joint account..covered to $250,000 (kid drains account and moves to Panama. Shows up broke 3 years later with 2 offspring of her own. Goodbye man cave in basement....)

I'll bang off a note to an old friend who is CEO of a local institution to make certain that this is still the system

SNV has been a zombie for years...

The Synovus branches in her area in trouble - some more than others. One local bank has troubled assets near 80%. It would not surprise me if it were to become FDIC dinner tomorrow. She has structured her accounts such that her assets are safe - making sure the grandkids are less likely to be forced into eating cat food.

Please relay any information regarding rules structure when you hear from your friend.

Thank you very much!

Fannie and Freddie went to the originators for claw-backs (which they are obligated to do)
:nuke: :scared: :nuke: :scared: :nuke: :scared: :nuke: :scared: :nuke: :scared: :nuke:

Lots would have to be printed. Lots.

Edit to say: We would also see severe price discovery on fantasy assets.

It's paper money, too. :shrug:

So I pull my pitiful savings out of my bank and I have $357.28 in cash. If the banks are gone, what good is the paper money and coins?

This is a serious question.

Another serious question -- are there any "safe" banks, and what would happen to them if all the others crash?



TG, not getting anything productive done this morning

Spouse moved his IRA (of stock funds) to a certificate of deposit with the credit union. He feels the money is a lot safer there, and doesn't worry about the market flash-crashing again.

But IMO, when the global financial system freezes, all institutions will be frozen. At some point, the gov will need to unfreeze them, but to prevent bank runs (and maintain people's confidence that money is safe in the 'insured' institutions), there will be limited amounts of money to withdraw.

Remember that 3,000 banks failed in 1933. But there were still banks to conduct business. The absence of banks did not have an impact on the value of money. FDR's administration made sure that assets would be protected through the creation of FDIC. FDIC at its basic concept assured that there would be a "circulating medium" for currency. This design would sustain a system of small, solvent banks.

The repeal of Glass-Steagall did not alter this insurance system. So not to worry.

See, that's why I'm always so amazed when someone thinks *I* know something!

I don't know shit!!!! :evilgrin:


Tansy Gold, who still doesn't have all that much faith in the paper money in the event of a collapse and thinks there will be massive and instantaneous hyper-inflation but there isn't a damn thing she can do about it.

you have the cash in your hand. Some folks may not even have that. Banks only have so much cash on hand. Now what your cash is worth is another debate. But to be out of cash and the banks closed can be a bad thing. When Ike blew threw here, it was days before banks opened. Most folks here have learned to go to the banks first then gas stations next on the way to the super market.

But I don't think they're going to print dollars, because, if dollars were printed to give everyone what they have in insured accounts, then we would be bringing those dollars to the store in wheelbarrows. So instead, that's why I think the gov will be limiting the amounts that can be withdrawn.

From last year...

8/17/09 Chris Martenson: The FDIC Is Broke. Now What? (Part I)
http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/fdic-broke-now-what/25274
http://seekingalpha.com/article/156899-the-fdic-is-broke-now-what-part-i
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/239719-james-quinn/23478-the-fdic-is-broke

8/19/09 Chris Martenson: The FDIC Is Broke. Now What? (Part II)
http://seekingalpha.com/article/156901-the-fdic-is-broke-now-what-part-ii



There is not enough money to cover the amounts in everyone's accounts. But it does give everyone a 'feel good' feeling knowing their money is 'safe'. I think there is going to be a day when the global financial system freezes up, and the banks are going to limit the amount of the money that can be withdrawn.

JPM "claims" $37 billion in T/A's

Crapital One "claims" $3 billion in T/A's

Shiti went from $16.6B to $27Billion in T/A's

Bank of Assholes "claims" $49.9 billion (a mere 60% YoY increase)

If dollars were printed to give everyone what they have in insured accounts, then we would be bringing those dollars to the store in wheelbarrows. So instead, that's why I think the gov will be limiting the amounts that can be withdrawn.


A March 2008 memorandum to the FDIC Board of Directors shows a 2007 year-end Deposit Insurance Fund balance of about $52.4 billion, which represented a reserve ratio of 1.22% of its exposure to insured deposits totaling about $4.29 trillion.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Deposit_Insurance_Corporation

I like to wager on occasion. These troubled banks generally give higher interest rates on cd's as they need the money. Since these are insured (be sure to check), this might be a way to get better rates. I got this when my S&L went under now that I think about it. You won't get rich but it may be a way to get some extra interest.

Not a full branch, but I do most of my banking there: deposits, transfers, withdrawals, instead of driving another 6 miles to my bank.

If I do it, other folks do too.....

would far exceed the number of banks closed during the 1930's. Some of these regional banks have bought and merged with dozens of smaller banks, such that a bank today could be comprised of hundreds of small banks, branches, and ATM's.

listen directly at this link
http://billdwightshow.com/audio/BDS100706.mp3 appx 40 minutes

Montague resident Chris Martenson is a research scientist and former VP of a Fortune 300 company who thinks the next 20 years are going to look a lot different than the last 20. He’ll be speaking this Thursday (tonight!) at the Academy of Music about the intersection of energy, the economy, and the environment; and how community is key.
http://billdwightshow.com/audio/the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it-and-what-you-can-do-to-feel-fine/

Chris Martenson Live: The Crash Course

In a talk recently presented to the United Nations and UK House of Parliament, Chris Martenson, Montague resident and author of the popular Crash Course video series will explore the intersection of the 3E’s – the economy, energy and environment—and present a compelling, rigorously researched case for why the next 20 years will be completely unlike the last.

Presented in association with Transition Towns of Western Massachusetts and Pioneer Valley Sustainability Network, join us for this exciting event to understand why relocalizing, reskilling and reuniting with our community in the Valley is more important than ever!

Show Date/Times:
Thursday, July 8th at 7:00 PM

Ticket Price:
No tickets – suggested donation of $10; Suggested donation box at door only

For More Information:
ChrisMartenson.com, megan@chrismartenson.com

http://www.academyofmusictheatre.com/tickets.html#event0049

The last 20 years have been killers.

more likely, dire
:(

(Up a little. Good day.)
Hot day, warm night. House fan cooled to 82 from 86.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,627,544,005,512.35 + 4,550,100,769,069.28
UP 75,213,990.44 + UP 2,238,828,926.49

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,229.77 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.69, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,619,931 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $42,560.71.
A family of three owes $127,682.14. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 5,775,307,496.77.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,235,225,497.63.
The average for the last 32 days would be 3,970,523,904.03.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 190 reports in 279 days of FY2010 averaging 6.67B$ per report, 4.54B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 929 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.5 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
07/06/2010 13,177,644,774,581.63 BHO (UP 2,550,767,725,668.55 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,267,815,771,069.90 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,658,612,030,252.74 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
06/15/2010 +026,653,914,221.49 ------------**********
06/16/2010 +000,179,185,558.18 ------------********
06/17/2010 -040,132,025,764.65 -
06/18/2010 +000,218,467,463.90 ------------********
06/21/2010 -000,091,646,713.41 ---- Mon
06/22/2010 -000,064,399,407.68 ----
06/23/2010 +000,605,957,540.69 ------------********
06/24/2010 -003,383,268,122.91 --
06/25/2010 +000,258,141,060.04 ------------********
06/28/2010 -000,856,644,286.03 --- Mon
06/29/2010 +000,753,506,197.45 ------------********
06/30/2010 +077,231,903,487.92 ------------**********
07/01/2010 -006,671,631,742.50 --
07/02/2010 +000,460,030,174.48 ------------********
07/06/2010 +000,075,213,990.44 ------------******* Tue

55,236,703,657.41 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4455851&mesg_id=4455893

This chart -BTW- was uploaded to personal account.

I'm a hardware, not a software engineer.

Just upload to a folder and paste the link to the image.

I really wish that DU had an image server where this stuff could be stored.

I'm REALLY not a software engineer...

Here is a link to the Picasa help page:
http://picasa.google.com/support/?hl=en

images stay there long enough for our purposes, I think. Depends on how many hits they get over time):

http://imageshack.us/

you have to:

1. save the image you want (eg. a screenshot) on your local disk;
2. upload to http://imageshack.us/
3. copy the full lin k into your DU post.
4. voila.

It would probably help to spread images across different servers. It helps keep bandwidth issues per account from becoming a problem.

The spirit lives. :thumbsup:

and they're set to expire in October of this year.

If they are renewed, expect to lose all social programs, period. Norquist will have won.

But, as I pointed out in another thread, there's a bunch of Dems pushing to extend them, and even make them permanent.

Obama has said nothing, but by his silence on repealing them early, I think I can guess where he stands.

And, it ain't with us.

2009 went up 1.9T$ including borrowing from both Public and Intra-governmental(FICA). This chart shows 1.4T$. Why is that?

2010 goes up, rather than down. A simple linear projection shows 2010 will hit 1.6 to 1.7T$, down, not up, from 1.9T$.

The maker conveniently avoids showing Bush's deficits and of course avoids showing Clinton's since it tells such a clear story, I'm guessing.

But, most amazing: those items fit the deficit perfectly each year. Yeah-right, said with sarcasm.

There is something fishy about that chart.

(Up a little. Good day.)

(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,627,557,422,121.00 + 4,554,434,292,010.18
UP 13,416,608.65 + UP 4,333,522,940.90

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,229.70 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.69, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,626,577 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $42,573.84.
A family of three owes $127,721.51. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 5,899,401,629.29.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,326,227,861.48.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 191 reports in 280 days of FY2010 averaging 6.66B$ per report, 4.54B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 928 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.5 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
07/07/2010 13,181,991,714,131.18 BHO (UP 2,555,114,665,218.10 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,272,162,710,619.40 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,658,354,962,057.43 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
06/16/2010 +000,179,185,558.18 ------------********
06/17/2010 -040,132,025,764.65 -
06/18/2010 +000,218,467,463.90 ------------********
06/21/2010 -000,091,646,713.41 ---- Mon
06/22/2010 -000,064,399,407.68 ----
06/23/2010 +000,605,957,540.69 ------------********
06/24/2010 -003,383,268,122.91 --
06/25/2010 +000,258,141,060.04 ------------********
06/28/2010 -000,856,644,286.03 --- Mon
06/29/2010 +000,753,506,197.45 ------------********
06/30/2010 +077,231,903,487.92 ------------**********
07/01/2010 -006,671,631,742.50 --
07/02/2010 +000,460,030,174.48 ------------********
07/06/2010 +000,075,213,990.44 ------------******* Tue
07/07/2010 +000,013,416,608.65 ------------*******

28,596,206,044.57 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4457029&mesg_id=4457099

9:33
Dow 10,075.80 57.52 (0.57%)
Nasdaq 2,174.16 14.69 (0.68%)
S&P 500 1,066.92 6.65 (0.63%)
10-Yr Bond 3.04% 0.61

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +7.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.00. Momentum from the prior session's surge had stalled overnight, though most foreign markets followed Wall Street's lead overnight, but stock futures now suggest that an opening gain is in order. The improved tone to premarket trade came on the back of a weekly jobless claims report that featured a slightly lower-than-expected initial claims count and a drastic drop in continuing claims to the lowest level in almost 20 months. The IMF's increased forecast for 2010 global GDP growth has also been a positive influence. Corporate news flow has been largely limited to the latest lot of monthly same-store sales results, which have been generally mixed. Still to come this morning are the latest weekly inventory figures for natural gas and crude oil (10:30 AM ET and 11:00 AM ET, respectively). Consumer credit data for May is due in the afternoon (3:00 PM ET).

July 8 (Bloomberg) -- European stress tests on 91 of the region’s biggest banks drew criticism from analysts who said regulators are underestimating probable losses on Greek and Spanish government bonds.

The tests are designed to assess how banks will be able to absorb losses on loans and government bonds, the Committee of European Banking Supervisors said yesterday. Regulators have told lenders the tests may assume a loss of about 17 percent on Greek government debt, 3 percent on Spanish bonds and none on German debt, said two people briefed on the talks who declined to be identified because the details are private.

Credit markets are pricing in losses of about 60 percent on Greek bonds should the government default, more than three times the level said to be assumed by CEBS. Derivatives known as recovery swaps are trading at rates that imply investors would get back about 40 percent in a Greek default or restructuring.

The tests assume a 3 percentage point deviation from the European Commission’s economic forecasts over two years and a deterioration of sovereign debt risk as compared to market prices in early May, CEBS said. The Commission estimates the EU’s economy will grow by 1 percent this year and 1.7 percent next year.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aTZ7_stLPqX0&pos=4

---

Okay. So this EU stress test is wallpaper. What's new?

7/8/10 The Con of the Decade Part I by Charles Hugh Smith

The con of the decade (Part I) involves the transfer of private debt to the public (the marks), who then pays interest forever to the con artists.

1. Enable trillions of dollars in mortgages guaranteed to default by packaging unlimited quantities of them into mortgage-backed securities MBS), created umlimited demand.

2. Sell these MBS as "safe" to credulous investors, institutions, town councils in Norway, etc.

3. Make huge "side bets" against these doomed mortgages so when they default then the short-side bets generate billions in profits.

4. Leverage each $1 of actual capital into $100 of high-risk bets.

5. Hide the utterly fraudulent bets offshore and/or off-balance sheet (not that the regulators you had muzzled would have noticed anyway).

6. When the longside bets go bad, transfer hundreds of billions of dollars in Federal guarantees, bailouts and backstops into private banks, either via direct payments or via proxies like AIG. Borrow hundreds of billions more at zero interest.

7. Deposit these hundreds of billions at the Federal Reserve, where they earn 3-4%. Reap billions in guaranteed income by borrowing Federal money for free and getting paid interest by the Fed.

8. As profits pile up, start buying boatloads of short-term U.S. Treasuries. Now the taxpayers who absorbed the trillions in private losses and who transferred trillions in subsidies, backstops, guarantees, bailouts and loans to private banks and corporations, are now paying interest on the Treasuries their own money purchased for the banks/corporations.

9. Slowly acquire trillions of dollars in Treasuries--not difficult to do as the Federal government is borrowing $1.5 trillion a year.

10. Stop buying Treasuries and dump a boatload onto the market, forcing interest rates to rise as supply of new T-Bills exceeds demand (at least temporarily). Repeat as necessary to double and then triple interest rates paid on Treasuries.

11. Buy hundreds of billions in long-term Treasuries at high rates of interest. As interest rates rise, interest payments dwarf all other Federal spending, forcing extreme cuts in all other government spending.

12. Enjoy the hundreds of billions of dollars in interest payments being paid by taxpayers on Treasuries that were purchased with their money but which are safely in private hands.

Since the Federal government could potentially inflate away these trillions in Treasuries, buy enough elected officials to force austerity so inflation remains tame. In essence, these private banks and corporations now own the revenue stream of the Federal government and its taxpayers. Neat con, and the marks will never understand how "saving our financial system" led to their servitude to the very interests they bailed out.

The circle is now complete: in "saving our financial system," the public borrowed trillions and transferred the money to private Power Elites, who then buy the public debt with the money swindled out of the taxpayer. Then the taxpayers transfer more wealth every year to the Power Elites/Plutocracy in the form of interest on the Treasury debt. The Power Elites will own the debt that was taken on to bail them out of bad private bets: this is the culmination of privatized gains, socialized risk.

In effect, it's a Third World/colonial scam on a gigantic scale: plunder the public treasury, then buy the debt which was borrowed and transferred to your pockets. You are buying the country with money you borrowed from its taxpayers. No despot could do better.

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogjuly10/con-of-decade07-10.html

Thanks for the heads up.

As I mentioned yesterday, my family doesn't get it, They think I've lost it, gone over the edge. I think it's better to understand what's coming and be prepared.

It is such a simple scam - I wonder why no one has not done this so successfully before. Sure there have been large-scale scams on the Treasury. But nothing like this. This is a global effort.

That's scary. Now I'm thinking I should just move the money back to the 'insured' banks or credit union.
I also had thought about taking the cash, and burying it in the ground in plastic bags with desiccant. With my luck, in a few years, the gov will reissue a new currency nulling the old.

There is no safe place. The game is...we don't win.
:(

Get out of debt, get rest of family out of debt (that you care about), own your home with sufficient land for some food/animal farming. Locate a community that works, and cultivate friends. Buy tools and learn to use them, and raw materials that keep.

Planning is all. That's why I'm on the condo board. If we can break through the mental barrier of rugged individualist-I got mine, FU, we could feed and power ourselves, and share skills to form a nugget of functional order and sufficiency in the coming chaos.

It's an uphill battle, getting there. Current battle is arguing with Lakes and "Grounds about community garden, or even putting small amounts of common area under truck farm for the people located closest to it.

You'd think with 65 acres they could loosen up a little...too many gardening ladies, not enough survivalists.

it can be done here too. It is another way to rob the people of their wealth. That is why you need to keep a bit of gold handy (and they will try to do that one day too). We have forgotten that because things have been so stable for so long. You don't buy gold to get rich, you buy it to preserve your wealth. Can goods are also valuable-I consider my pantry a small savings account.

Wonder if we are approaching the 2 minute warning? We are seeing some minor improvements in our real world economy but I wouldn't say it is a recovery. We still seem to have too much of the haves and have nots. Maybe it is a breather before the shit hits the fan.

and it's practically indestructible, if it stays cool and dry.

We did warn them, repeatedly.

I was told here on DU that the bank bailouts were just like the New Deal.

or so I wish...

being robbed at pen point.

about the PPT

Per ZeroHedge:

A highly amusing exchange occurred earlier on CNBC when guest Damon Vickers of Nine Points Capital had an unexpected moment of truthiness and turned some heads when he said that "unless the plunge protection team comes in over the next couple of days, the markets are looking very dicey here." When a disgusted Joe Kernan asks if Vickers was making a joke about the PPT, the response is "absolutely not - it's common knowledge that the government steps in and does things to step on the gas and buy stock here and there." To which Byron Wien has a strong retort: "I don't believe it." All that and much more in the clip below.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/cnbc-guest-says-absent-plunge-protection-team-stepping-market-would-fall-wien-kernan-disgust


Hey CNBC people, have you even taken a good look at the casino you are gabbing on about all day?

at this point on the inevitable curve.

forbids me from posting. I personally think modesty should mind her own business, but whatcha gonna do?

in which the Dow has gained about 400 points on, nothing, really. Does anyone else think we in for a major, unexpected, couldn't see it coming, correction tomorrow?

This is a normal retracement from a deeply oversold condition. It never is straight down, is it?

I suppose this is the new normal. The market has no clear idea where its headed EVER but today the sentiment was pretty rosy out on the floor. Good jobs number, some sunshine in the retail sector (childrens clothes!) and everybody swang for the fences.

There is a good contingent of traders who maintain it is entirely possible for the markets to move all the way up to their 50 day moving averages. IMO if you see this phenomena, you might see the decline you are all rooting for begin right from there. Just don't be disapointed when Wall Street doesn't become a haunted street of broken dreams and abandoned buildings because that's just not in the cards, no matter how fervently you root for it.

It's just impossible to get a beam on things, but I had a (not well recieved on this thread) feeling a few days back everyone was being sandbagged to allow the big guys to gather in a few hundred points of profits before they go on vacation, and that has certainly come to pass. I'm currently biased long because there's not any reason yet to be short, but I made my money for the week after Tuesday.

That chart looks weirder if you stretch it out to 1956 or so.
See you at the Fountainhead luncheon, Oz.

But, I think most of us here are not day traders, and are not into catching falling knives. That seems like a sure way to miss the big moves, and I think they will be down. :)

Fountainhead? Sounds Randian.

The stock price in 1954 did recover to 1929 levels, but wouldn't you have been safer and done better in bonds? Think about all of that interest. I think I'll wait to buy at the bottom, maybe in another 5-6 years.

On how computerized trading works:

http://www.usatoday.com/money/markets/2010-07-09-wallstreetmachine08_CV_N.htm

It's a good basic primer.