STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday 31 March

when it comes to high finance, but could someone knowledgeable explain something to me? I always thought that stocks and precious metals usually went on opposite directions. The last few days stocks have soared, but so has gold. This doesn't make sense to me. Is this just people hedging their bets, or is something more complicated?
I'm not complaining, I accumulated goodly amounts of silver, palladium and gold last year and I'm in hog heaven right now.
Could one of you WS mavens explain this to a poor, dumb old country boy though? Thanks.

The way it was explained to me regarding silver, is that we are currently running into a shortage of it on the market. Silver jewelry became very popular the past 10 years. Apparently silver is found close to the surface in the earth and the further down it is mined, the less quality it is. So silver has broken away from gold and currency and is set to rise in price. I have read articles where is has been estimated that it will reach 11 or 12 dollars an ounce. Gold on the other hand is still very manipulable by the financial markets. I invested in precious metals earlier this year and am very pleased with results thus far. Also for the short time I've been watching, I don't see the price of gold fluctuating so much against the stock market as much as I see the value increase with the decline of the dollar.

does any of this make any sense?

Your question is difficult to answer as no one knows what is on the minds of investors. I think some of it is people hedging their bets, others making a flight for quality in uncertain times, but there are issues that are more complicated as well. Keep in mind that commodities are now coming out of a 20 year bear cycle, so our most recent memories (20 years worth!) have been stocks and PMs moving inversely. So while we may be coming into a bull market for commodities, many investors don't know such a thing could even exist, so they are staying in the market - it's what they know.

Paul Van Eeden recently ran a series of articles in an attempt to speculate on what the price of gold should be. I don't buy into anyone trying to predict the price, but I do like these types of articles for the history they give on gold price and the markets. I don't think anyone has a crystal ball, and there is the old standard disclaimer of "past performance...yada, yada, yada". But understanding some of the history behind the pricing and manipulation does give a greater understanding to what may be happening now.

His articles are found here:
http://www.kitco.com/weekly/paulvaneeden/feb162004.html
Starting with the one titled "Gold is on its way up again"
then moving up the index to the right thru the next 4 titles and ending with "Gold's theoretical value".

There is lots of info out there, quite a few links have been posted in past SMW threads.

Probably not the definitive answer you were looking for, but it sounds as though you are already well invested in PMs and doing quite well in them right now. Congratulations! B-)

See post #4

a 12 pack of beer, I'd be hurtin' big time then.

Is that an indication that BoJ is now willing to see a higher yen against the dollar (or out of cash)? I don't remember seeing it this low (or high) before.

Seems they have moved the goal post. Perhaps we will see smaller amount of intervention to "decelerate" the rise to 100. :shrug:

Last trade 87.94 Change -0.49 (-0.55%)

Settle 88.43 Settle Time 23:36
Open 87.97 Previous Close 88.43
High 88.47 Low 87.74

http://www.forexnews.com/NA/default.asp

Yen Surges Against Dollar and Euro by Jes Black



At 10:00:00 AM US Feb Factory Orders (exp 1.5%, prev -0.7%) US Mar Chicago PMI (exp 61.0, prev 63.6) At 3:25:00 PM US Fed Governor Gramlich Speaks

The yen rose to a new 3-year high against the dollar at 103.45 and a 4-month high of 126.63 against the euro. The notable absence of Japanese intervention this morning confirms the past week’s speculation that the Ministry of Finance sought to quell is yen selling measures. The dollar also hit a new two month low against the Canadian dollar, which has risen 5 consecutive days in a row, its longest streak since May, 2003. But the euro was little changed from overnight highs, trading just above 1.22, as concerns over Eurozone growth and a potential rate cut by the ECB weigh on the single currency.

Eurozone Inflation in Check, Rate Cut Could Come in June

With inflation in check at 1.6% in March, the third consecutive month below the ECB's limit of 2%, a rate cut could come as early as this June according to traders in the futures markets. Futures for the June 3-month yield fell to 1.85%, from 2%, the ECB’s rate, earlier this month. Therefore, a rate cut at this week's meeting on Thursday would be a surprise to the markets who are only looking for guidance by the ECB that a cut is coming in the future if domestic demand continues to stagnate.

Gold Rises to $425, Silver Nears $8 an Ounce

Precious metals refused to follow the EUR/USD lower this month and instead rallied to within critical resistance levels. Gold rose back above its 1996 peak of $420 for the second time this year, and is within 1% of new 13 year highs. More importantly, gold priced in euros is knocking at key resistance of 350 euros per oz of gold, a level that has capped all gold/euro rallies for the past three years. A move above here would likely spell trouble for all countries as it would indicate that either inflation was back on the rise or that investors were losing confidence in both the dollar and euro as currencies. Silver rallied $1.5, or 25% since February and has now surpassed its 1998 highs this month, but is in the throws of a parabolic rise which may bode ill for the metal in the coming months if the dollar were to maintain its rally.

Data today include February factory orders and the March Chicago PMI survey. Factory orders are expected to bounce back from a 0.7% decline in January while the March PMI survey is expected to decline to 61.0 from a robust 63.6 last month.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=aU1TFN6MJ3VI&refer=home

Yen Rises to Four-Year High; Japan Signals Fewer Currency Sales

March 31 (Bloomberg) -- The yen surged to a four-year high against the dollar in New York after a government report showed Japan is reducing sales of its currency as economic growth accelerates.

Japan sold 4.7 trillion yen ($45.2 billion) in March, less than the average for the prior two months. Record sales in the past year limited the yen's gain, helping exporters and spurring the fastest economic expansion in 13 years in the fourth quarter. The central bank's Tankan survey tomorrow may show business confidence is improving, economists said.

``As the Japanese economy picks up and the stock market recovers, it will probably be more difficult for the Japanese government to justify intervention,'' Yukihiro Sato, chief financial officer of Mitsubishi Electric Corp., said in a telephone interview in Tokyo.

The Japanese currency strengthened to 103.96 at 8:02 a.m. in New York from 105.77 late yesterday, according to EBS prices. It gained to as much as 103.40 and is heading for a third straight quarterly increase. The yen also rose to 127.04 per euro from 128.70. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average and Topix index had their biggest fiscal-year gains in 31 years.

The Nihon Keizai newspaper on March 9 reported the Bank of Japan had sold 3 trillion yen since late February. Today's figure ``indicates that most of the intervention was at the beginning of the month,'' said Kamal Sharma, a currency strategist in London at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein.

The yen is moving toward 100 per dollar, said Paul Chertkow, head of currency research in London at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ltd. Should the Tankan survey show rising confidence, ``the investment flows into Japan are bound to continue.''

snip>
ECB Rate Decision

The euro rose against the dollar on expectations the European Central Bank will refrain from cutting its key interest rate tomorrow. All but two of the 36 economists polled by Bloomberg News said the bank will keep its rate at 2 percent when policy makers convene.

Versus the dollar, the euro was at $1.2219, compared with $1.2173 yesterday.

snip>
Jobs Picture

The dollar's decline against both the euro and the yen was furthered by expectations the Federal Reserve will keep its target rate at 1 percent this year. Jack Guynn, president of the Fed's Atlanta branch, yesterday said hiring may be delayed, suggesting policy makers will wait before raising the key rate from the lowest since July 1958.

A report tomorrow may show the U.S. added 120,000 jobs this month, compared with a gain of 21,000 in February, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 71 economists. Payrolls on average have grown by 61,000 workers over the last six months, compared with an average of 207,000 a month during the comparable period after the 1990-1991 recession.

``We've haven't seen the payroll growth that would make people think a rate hike is imminent,'' Yetsenga said. The dollar may fall to 100 yen in the second half of the year, he said.

snip>
Still Present

The yen's rise may be tempered by concern Japan will sell its currency to avoid excessive gains.

``It's desirable that foreign exchange rates move in a manner reflecting fundamentals of economies,'' Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki said to reporters in Tokyo. ``Otherwise we must take action as necessary'' in currency markets. He declined to comment on the yen's level.

``If the yen falls below 105, there are still risks to the Japanese economy,'' Satoru Ogasawara, a Tokyo-based strategist at Credit Suisse First Boston, said in an interview. ``We're still expecting the MOF to be in the currency market, but not to push up dollar-yen like in early March.''

The BOJ's Tankan index of confidence among large manufacturers probably rose to a three-year high of 10 in March from 7 in December, according to the median of 40 forecasts in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Confidence among large non- manufacturers probably rose to 4 from zero. A reading above zero means optimists outnumber pessimists.


http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2004/03/31/rtr1318181.html

FOREX-Yen storms higher, hits four-year peak vs dollar

LONDON, March 31 (Reuters) - The yen smashed through a key psychological barrier to hit a four-year high against the dollar on Wednesday as investors sensed Japan was scaling back yen-selling intervention going into the new fiscal year.

The yen rose at breakneck speed after hurdling 105 per dollar, previously considered the tolerance threshold for Japanese policymakers keen to prevent a strengthening yen jeopardising the country's export-led recovery.

snip>
"Economic fundamentals are pointing to further yen strength and it will be harder for Japan to justify intervention."

snip>
A Reuters poll forecast the survey would reveal heightened optimism among big manufacturers who are benefiting from robust exports and high-tech demand.

"There's a lot of optimism about the Japanese economy. The Nikkei had a good run over the last 12 months and we have the tankan overnight which is expected to show further improvement," said Ryan Shea, senior international economist at Bank One in London.

snip>
"The line in the sand at 105 has gone, clearly, but I wouldn't be surprised to see another one above 100," he said.

snip>
EURO RECOVERS FOOTING VS DOLLAR

The euro was up half a percent against the dollar at $1.2225 , slightly below earlier one-week highs but up almost two cents from this year's low hit on Monday.

News of a fire at a BP Plc refinery in Texas bolstered the euro against the dollar in early trade, particularly after the FBI last week warned of a security threat to refiners in that area.

BP said the cause of the fire was unknown but added it did not appear to have been started intentionally.

Dealers said fading expectations of an interest rate cut from the European Central Bank on Thursday were also supporting the single currency.

snip>
The Chicago purchasing managers' index, due at 1500 GMT, is forecast to show a fall to 61.5 in March from 63.6 in February. U.S. factory orders, due at the same time, are expected to to show a rise of 1.5 percent in February after a 0.5 percent decline in the prior month.

However, reaction to both sets of data may be muted ahead of Friday's key U.S. payroll report, dealers said.

Dow 10,316.59 -65.11 (-0.63%)
Nasdaq 1,986.96 -13.67 (-0.68%)
S&P 500 1,121.92 -5.08 (-0.45%)
10-Yr Bond 3.869% -0.033

February factory orders, Chicago-area March manufacturing, both come in below forecasts. Details soon.

Phew, thanks for jumping in Maeve! I got a bit behind in watchin'

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

DJIA: It is in "no man's land" between resistance at 10650, and support at 10000. If support continues to hold, we would expect at least one attempt to take out resistance. If 10000 doesn't hold, the next support is at 9700.

SP500: It has resistance at 1125, support at 1075. If it can overcome resistance at 1125, it can run back up to 1160.

NASDAQ: It remains under a cloud of suspicion as long as it stays below 2000. If it violates last week's lows on a closing basis, it sets a downside target in the 1875-1850 zone. Above 2000, it sets an upside target in the 2025-2050 zone.

HUI: Support at 210, resistance at235.A close below 215 would give a first downside target of 200, and a second one in the 185-180 zone. A close above 234 would give un upside target of 250.

US Dollar: Resistance at 91, support at 83.5.

CRB: It has support at 271. Resistance at 286.

Oil: A close below 35 can take it all the way down to 30. A close above 38 suggests an upside target in the $40-$42 zone.

Given that the indices are testing support, while we have numerous positive divergences, we ought to expect a rally, even if Monday turns out to be a down day, ASSUMING the overall environment is still bullish. All these positive divergences amount to unconfirmed "buy signals." (A signal from a divergence becomes confirmed when price actually follows suit.) Buy signals - bottom picking - tend to fail in bear markets, just like sell signals - top picking - tend to fail in bull markets. Consequently, in the next few days we are going to get some very important clues regarding whether the bull is still in charge or the bear has quietly taken over.

There's a sick child and spouse on my hands. My time has been very limited as a result. Thanks to everyone who keeps the dialogue moving - especially 54anickel. Your contributions give this thread richness in depth.

Later all,

Ozy :hi:

as well. Thanks again for getting us going each and every morning!
:donut:

Edit to add:
My goodness, the Marketeers are running thin these days. I certainly hope we can get a few more of our random posters and lurkers to join in the fun!

I will be out the majority of midday tomorrow as I need to head for the windy city. Next week my time will be quite limited as well - "hubby" is off and putting me to work on some long neglected tasks, ie finishing the 20 some new replacement doors we purchased in the fall (I guess it is about time).

Dow 10,340.96 -40.74 (-0.39%)
Nasdaq 1,990.31 -10.32 (-0.52%)
S&P 500 1,123.35 -3.65 (-0.32%)
10-Yr Bond 3.853% -0.049


10:30AM: The weaker than expected economic reports are slightly bearish for stocks and have caused a drop to fresh session lows in the major averages... Overall, the losses are only moderate, though, as the economy is accelerating even if the reports were disappointing... To that extent, while the drop in the Chicago PMI to 57.6 versus the consensus of 61.0 and February's reading of 63.6 is uninspiring, keep in mind that anything over 50 is indicative of expansion vis-à-vis the prior month...
So, the manufacturing sector is continuing to expand in the Chicago area, boding well for the ISM report, scheduled for release tomorrow... The Factory Orders report, with its scant gain of 0.3% (consensus 1.5%) was much lower than expected due to a surprising 2.0% drop in non-durable orders... The non-durables component tends to be relatively steady, though, so a rebound in next month's data is likely...
http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=economicNews&storyID=4713857

NEW YORK, March 31 (Reuters) - The following are comments from debt and currency market analysts on Wednesday after the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 57.6 in March from 63.6 in February.
The Chicago PMI employment index fell to 49.2 from 54.8 the previous month, while the prices paid index jumped to 75.7 from 66.9.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Commerce Department reported February factory orders were up 0.3 percent after a 0.9 percent fall in January. But overall February durable goods orders were unrevised at up 2.5 percent in February.

ANTHONY KARYDAKIS, SENIOR FINANCIAL ECONOMIST, BANC ONE CAPITAL MARKETS, CHICAGO:

"I would say it provides further evidence that the pace of improvement in the manufacturing sector is cooling somewhat. It seems to be retreating quite fast. Still as absolute levels go, 57.6 is a respectable one. That impressive surge that we had in manufacturing activity that we had late last year is waning somewhat."

much more analysis from other economists, some good, some bad. Hmmm 50/50 again. :evilgrin:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar weakened broadly on Wednesday on rumors Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan had suffered a heart attack roiled markets, traders said.

The greenback extended its losses further, stung by a weaker than expected Chicago area business conditions report.

The Fed declined to comment on Greenspan. "The Fed does not comment on market rumors," Fed spokesman Andrew Williams said.

snip>
"The dollar is selling off across the board on fears that Greenspan may no longer be at the helm," said Jeremy Fand, senior proprietary trader with WestLB in New York.

European currencies were among those that benefited most from the dollar's weakness. Greenspan heads up the Fed, which is the architect of U.S. monetary policy; a key consideration for the dollar's performance against other currencies.

"The rumor is that Greenspan had a heart attack, I don't know if it's true but traders are buying Swiss francs and euros," said Cyrus Whitney, head dealer at Commerzbank.

The dollar came off its lows, however, as traders awaited any further word from the Fed on Greenspan.

"At some stage after a market has moved on a rumor, markets like to see some confirmation: that is why the dollar has consolidated a bit from its move lower after the data," said Lara Rhame, senior economist with Brown Brothers Harriman in New York.

more...

edit to add US$ data:

Last trade 87.62 Change -0.81 (-0.92%)

High 88.47 Low 87.49

If they are playing a selection of solemn orchestral music, Greenspan is probably dead.

:evilgrin:

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=4714009

Midwest Business Growth Surprisingly Slow

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Business activity in the U.S. Midwest expanded in March for an 11th straight month but at a much slower pace than expected, raising concerns about the strength of economic recovery, a report showed on Wednesday.
The National Association of Purchasing Management-Chicago business barometer fell to 57.6 from 63.6 in February. Economists had forecast the index at 61.5. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.

A feature was the jump in prices paid, to 75.7 from 67.5 in February, as rising prices for energy and many raw commodities start to bite.

"The most worrisome aspect of this report is the extraordinary leap in prices of commodities used in the early stages of production. That indicates the Fed's concerns about deflation are again misplaced," said David Littmann, chief economist with Comerica Bank in Detroit.

snip>
U.S. Treasury prices rallied on the data while stock prices slipped.

Nothing about the horror that happened in Iraq, nothing about Greenspin (not that that is on the same level at all). Just goes to show the news doesn't move the market, they pick their stories to tie in later to explain the moves.

Dow 10,344.15 -37.55 (-0.36%)
Nasdaq 1,993.34 -7.29 (-0.36%)
S&P 500 1,124.17 -2.83 (-0.25%)
30-yr Bond 4.780% -0.038

NYSE Volume 418,311,000
Nasdaq Volume 604,556,000

11:00AM: The dip to session lows incited by the weaker than expected economic data has been used as a buying opportunity... Accordingly, while the major averages remain in the red, they have pared their earlier losses in a noticeable fashion... Today is the last day of the first quarter... If the market were to close right now, the Dow and the Nasdaq would be lower by 1.0% and 0.4%, respectively, while the S&P 500 would be up 1.2% for the quarter... Among the best performing sectors in Q1 are the consumer staples, energy, and financial groups...
Among the laggards for the same time period are the basic materials and technology groups...NYSE Adv/Dec 1423/1544, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1235/1518

"Horror" thread:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x454430

edit for html

http://www.thestreet.com/markets/marketfeatures/10151537.html

For years, the technology industry has politely steered discussions away from its aggressive use of options. Now a rule change proposed Wednesday by an accounting oversight board could require many of its biggest companies to reduce sharply their reported profits and state clearly how much options really cost them.

Under the draft proposal published Wednesday by the Financial Accounting Standards Board, any public company that pays employees this way would be required to estimate the fair-value cost of the options using a pricing model, and then subtract the cost as a business expense on its earnings statements.

Previously the cost of options could be more loosely calculated and needed only be disclosed in footnotes in companies' filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. For the majority of tech companies, it stayed out of the conventional profit and loss picture.

The upshot is that profits at a representative pool of chip companies would nosedive 37% this year if options were expensed, while software outfits would see their net income plummet 65%, according to respective estimates from SG Cowen and Goldman Sachs.

By contrast, 2004 earnings for the S&P 500 would shrink a relatively paltry 9% if member companies expensed options, according to Standard & Poor's.

more...

Thought this was an interesting find in the Financial Times.

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/WireFeed/WireFeed&c=WireFeed&cid=1079420093921

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/03/31/business/31CND-OIL.html

VIENNA, March 30 — OPEC today ratified a pledge it made last month to cut its target for crude oil production by a million barrels a day, ministers present at the meeting said.

The move was expected to drive oil prices higher and stoke the political debate in the United States surrounding elevated gasoline prices.

Gasoline futures spiked in overnight trading in anticipation of OPEC's decision and in response to a fire on Tuesday in BP oil refinery in Texas.

The average retail price for gasoline in the United States rose on Tuesday to $1.753 a gallon, a record high, according to AAA, formerly the American Automobile Association; the average was $1.69 a gallon a month ago.

Still, it remained unclear how much oil OPEC would actually take off the market.

more...

Wednesday March 31, 11:58 am ET
By Tomi Kilgore


NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- The major U.S. stock indexes dipped Wednesday, but the overall market exhibited some intermittent strength, as a slide in crude prices helped offset weaker-than-expected economic data and anxiety over a tumble in the U.S. dollar.

The Dow Jones Industrials Average (^DJI - News) eased 35 points, or 0.3 percent, to 10,347, with 20 of 30 components losing ground, after rallying 169 points over the prior two sessions.

The Dow's biggest losers included Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT - News) , Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HPQ - News) , AT&T (NYSE:T - News) and DuPont (NYSE:DD - News) , while its winners included SBC Communications (NYSE:SBC - News) , Boeing (NYSE:BA - News) and Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM - News) .

snip>
Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment strategist at Windham Financial Services, added that the market's technical outlook was "iffy," as the latest gains have brought the indexes up to resistance levels, and as trend indicators have begun to move towards "a potential long-term sell signal."

Crude slides on supply data
May crude futures dropped $1.10 to $35.15 after the American Petroleum Institute said crude stocks rose 8.4 million barrels for the week ending March 26. That backed up data from the U.S. Energy Department, which showed that crude stocks increased by 5.7 million barrels.

John Person, head financial analyst at Infinity Brokerage Services, said crude prices could fall to $25 a barrel if supply continues to rise..

Meanwhile, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said they would cut crude production by 1 million barrels a day, prompting the White House to respond by saying the oil cartel should not take actions to hurt the U.S. economy.

snip>
Data disappoints, dollar tumbles
A measure of manufacturing activity in the Chicago region came in at 57.6 percent in March, well below expectations for 61.6 percent ( read more ).

In addition, February factory orders rose a surprisingly weak 0.3 percent, vs. expectations of a 1.7 percent increase.

A.G. Edwards Goldman said investors may now "sit back and wait to see what the employment figures look like Friday." See Economic Preview .

The dollar tumbled 1.1 percent vs. the euro to $1.2301, as currency traders reacted to a rumor that Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan.

The Fed responded by saying "there is no truth" to the rumor and that "Greenspan is fine," but that failed to spark a recovery as the weak economic data continued to weigh.

more...

Dow 10,353.26 -28.44 (-0.27%)
Nasdaq 1,993.64 -6.99 (-0.35%)
S&P 500 1,125.67 -1.33 (-0.12%)
30-yr Bond 4.781% -0.037

NYSE Volume 578,653,000
Nasdaq Volume 814,613,000

12:00PM: The major averages have spent the entirety of the session thus far trading in negative territory, but this is not to imply that bears are in firm control... On the contrary... Despite the fact that the market has ended higher for two consecutive sessions preceding today's, selling efforts have been controlled thus far, with dips being used as buying opportunities... The pre-open session was relatively quiet, but was highlighted by better than expected earnings reports from Best Buy (BBY 51.76 +3.36) and Circuit City (CC 11.63 +0.93)...
The Factory Orders and Chicago PMI reports checked in weaker than expected, causing the major averages to slip to session lows near 10ET... Nevertheless, the market bounced on the realization that although below the consensus of 61.0, the Chicago PMI at 57.6 was indicative of expansion in the region's manufacturing activity... Additionally, while the Factory Orders report at 0.3% (consensus 1.5%) was much lower than expected due to a surprising 2.0% drop in non-durable orders, the latter tends to be relatively steady, so a rebound in next month's data is likely...

Looking at sectors activity, there's little strong leadership to the upside or to the downside, as the bulk of the groups are little changed... Nevertheless, leaders to the upside include the technology retail, personal services, water utilities, healthcare distributor, food retail, homebuilding, and airline sectors... Among the laggards of note are the hardware nad storage groups... Elsewhere, the bond market is rallying, with the 10-year note up 9/32, bringing its yield up to 3.86%...

http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north262.html?321gold

snip>
But what about "You can’t eat gold"? Will it ever return? I doubt it. Old slogans, once discarded, are like Presidential candidates who lost. They remain discarded. The case against the gold standard is so widely believed today that I don’t expect to see a gold standard installed anywhere in my lifetime. But the case against the dollar is likely to become widely accepted in capital markets. What will replace the dollar as the world’s reserve currency is problematic. My guess is that no single currency will. The efficiency of the currency markets is so great that investors can go from one currency to another at a moment’s notice.

I think gold will remain linked inversely to the dollar. As the dollar falls internationally, gold will rise. If gold starts rising in relation to other currencies, too, that will mark a break with the fiat money world of central banks.

I think gold is ultimately tied to oil. You can’t drink oil, and you can’t eat gold. But if you own either oil or gold, you surely will have caterers lining up to cover your banquet table.

snip>
Is the U.S. economy weak? Compared to Asia, yes. Compared to Europe, no. Is the FED in inflation mode? No more than usual. Is the deficit in crisis? Yes. This is where the old argument for the gold standard as a restraining factor comes into play once again. It is the astronomical increase in the deficit that offers gold bulls a major hope. This deficit must be funded. Asian central banks are now funding it. They will not do so indefinitely. When they decide to stop the policy of offering below-market loans for the U.S. government, paid for by inflating their own currencies, the dollar will fall, interest rates in the U.S. will rise, and the economic boom will end.

Woe unto the political party whose man is in the White House when this happens.

CONCLUSION

The fall of the dollar seems as sure as any forecast that rational people could make. This will bring with it a rise in commodity prices. Gold and oil are now linked, I believe. Gold is no longer a restraining factor in government policy, but oil is. Gold will follow oil, and oil looks to be in a bull market because energy is in a bull market. Asia and India are plugging in.

The closest thing to the Bretton Woods agreement today is the decision of Arab policy-makers to sell oil for dollars. I do not expect this policy to survive beyond this decade. When Arabs select another currency, the dollar’s monopoly will go the way of all monopolies. The party will be over for Americans, who have been able to buy the world’s crucial commodity with fiat money. Fiat money always goes the way of all flesh.

Don’t plan to eat Federal Reserve Notes. But they could make a good fire-starter.

Dow 10,353.78 -27.92 (-0.27%)
Nasdaq 1,993.32 -7.31 (-0.37%)
S&P 500 1,125.92 -1.08 (-0.10%)
30-yr Bond 4.790% -0.028

1:00PM: Mostly sideways in the last half an hour, with the major averages continuing to trade in the red, albeit with only mild losses... The tech composite is underperforming its blue-chip counterparts on a relative basis, with the hardware sector continuing to struggle on the heels of a warning by QLogic (QLGC 33.64 -9.05)...
QLGC issued Q4 guidance of $0.36 on expected revenues of approximately $128 mln (Reuters Research consensus $0.38 and $140.23 mln), saying the majority of the revenue shortfall is related to a decline in expected orders from two original equipment manufacturer customers for host bus adapters at the end of the quarter... The company has been downgraded at Merrill Lynch to Neutral from Buy, but according to Baird the sell-off may provide a buying opportunity...NYSE Adv/Dec 1695/1458, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1363/1626

12:30PM: The major averages are continuing to pare their losses, with the S&P 500 reaching to the unchanged line, while the Dow and the Nasdaq are showing mild losses... As mentioned previously, the S&P 500 is relatively outperforming the Dow and the Nasdaq on a year-to-date basis, with gains of 1.3% versus losses of 0.9% and 0.4% for the Dow and Nasdaq, respectively...

Note that some of today's activity can be attributed to a phenomenon known as "window-dressing" - an attempt by fund managers to "dress up" their portfolios at quarter-end with the quarter's better performers, although this time around such efforts are rather limited due to the market's relatively uninspiring performance over the past three months...

There were a lot of questions in the Market regarding the latest aquisitions in the gold market.

http://205.232.90.194/editorials/bond/bond033004_wsj.html


Couple of other articles on Norilsk Nickel and gold consolidations

http://www.rbcnews.com/free/20040331104027.shtml
Norilsk Nickel's decision on Gold Fields is wager on president

http://www.itar-tass.com/eng/level2.html?NewsID=621504&PageNum=0
Norilsk Nickel buys 20 percent share of Gold Fields company

http://www.mosnews.com/money/2004/03/31/russiamerger.shtml
Russia Leads the Way in Merger Transactions

http://www.iht.com/articles/512766.html
Iamgold to buy Wheaton for 2.2 billion in stock

Rooboy posted recently on LBN thread re: New Russian Weapon -

==================
"talking about a conspiracy between the Bushes and the Russians to make a shitload of money out of palladium amongst other things. A Russian weaponry system was a large part of the story.

Check out the prices of palladium and platinum recently. Al Martin's article is by subscription only, but this is the intro to it...

<snip>
(Mar 15) For the first time in 24 years, on March 1, platinum traded above $900 an ounce, having doubled its price over the past 18 months. This event bespeaks of the conspiracy that the Bush Regime and the Russian government have entered, in order to force the price of platinum higher. Russia, it should be noted, produces 3/5 of the world’s platinum, and it is a substantial export earner for Russia. </snip>

www.almartinraw.com"

==============

Gold Fields churns out alot of Palladium and Platinum.

Russia's only other foreign mining investment is a 56% share in US mining concern Stillwater, whose bread and butter is..Palladium and Platinum.

what he really saw was $$ and shiny things, lots of shiny things.

This is just getting to freaking scary these days.

I didn't think anyone was cranking out gobs of catalytic converters.

Poppy wearing the blue tenny shoes? Wasn't that last Summer? We wondered what was going on. I think it was before one of the big European Monetary Conferences, but I could be wrong. They are into so much that after awhile one's mind can't sort it all into place, :crazy:

Does anyone remember that meeting with Putin?

Elvis' Blue Suede shoes dancing around, then Babs slapping him upside the head telling him to knock it off?

No, sorry KoKo, I don't remember that meeting. As you say there is just sooooo much going on with this Ro-ya-all family.

:tinfoilhat:

http://www.conspiracyplanet.com/channel.cfm?channelid=2&contentid=1103&page=2

To further aid this conspiracy, last year the Bush Cheney Regime unlawfully allowed a Russian company Norilsk secretly controlled by the Russian government to purchase Stillwater Mining which is the largest platinum producer in the United States. In fact it mines 90% of all US platinum. Stillwater is headquartered in Denver and its primary mining operations are in Montana. The company does both hard rock and leach platinum mining.

"After they bought it, the Russians closed down Stillwater mining operations, using the lie that the market was over saturated with platinum. The Russian government had been withholding the metal in order to force up prices.

"It should be once again noted that the purchase of Stillwater Mining by the Russian government (granted, it was through a supposedly private company, but the Russian government was behind it) is unlawful in that platinum is classified as a strategic metal.

"It is against the law for a Russian firm, controlled by the Russian government, to purchase any mining company in the United States which produces any strategic metal or mineral. "Strategic" in this case means that besides any precious metal value it has and its normal industrial value, it is a metal which is needed to build certain weapons systems, principally strategic weapons systems.


edit to add:

http://www.cdi.org/russia/johnson/7224-13.cfm
Financial Times (UK)
June 16, 2003
Stillwater on Bush and Putin agenda
By Kevin Morrison

George W. Bush and Vladimir Putin's meeting this month at the Konstantin Palace, in St Petersburg, to discuss post-war Iraq, international terrorism, the global economy, and the takeover of a Montana-based mining company, by a Russian mining group.

Sources said the conversation between the two presidents about the proposed takeover of Stillwater Mining, the largest US producer of palladium and platinum, by Norilsk, founded as one of Stalin's gulags and now one of Russia's biggest mining groups, was in the spirit of closer economic ties between the two former cold-war foes.

Norilsk have also hired Baker Botts, one of Washington's most powerful lobbying firms, in which James Baker, former US secretary of state and long time friend of the Bush family, is a senior partner.

more...

and here's a link to the complete Al Martin story - no subscription needed.

http://www.solomonstemple.com/modules.php?name=AvantGo&file=print&sid=175

Norilsk using Baker Botts? Thats pretty damn friendly...

I can't find anything though on Stillwater stopping production. They increased production slightly from '02 to '03, though their earnings were down overall.

yeah, something shady going on here. no doubt. especially looking at the price of Platinum lately, which has been volatile.

thanks for the info, 50/50 4anickel!

http://www.findarticles.com/cf_1/m3MKT/2003_April_11/100012432/p1/article.jhtml
Norilsk said mulling closure of Stillwater mines

http://www.platinum.matthey.com/media_room/1070632802.html
Stillwater mine closes after accident - 5th December 2003

http://trinity.mips1.net/MGPlat.nsf/0/4225685F0043D65385256D4B00744836?OpenDocument
Stillwater can stagnate for a year
By: Tim Wood Posted: 2003/06/20 Fri

http://www.billingsgazette.com/index.php?id=1&display=rednews/2004/02/27/build/business/10-stillwater.inc
Stillwater Mining sells Russian palladium: Records large write-off of assets
February 27, 2004

http://www.billingsgazette.com/index.php?id=1&display=rednews/2004/03/14/build/state/50-newminers.inc
March 14, 2004
Hard times prompt class of new miners



So what's this all mean? I have no idea. That article by Al Martin reads like a plot to a Tom Clancey novel, but then again there was always that bit of truth and plausibility in his works. The Sum of All Fears read less and less like fiction with each passing year from when it was first published.

:shrug: :tinfoilhat:

that tin foil hat of yours looks suspiciously like....a Miner's helmet!

you're part of the cabal, aren't you! infiltrator! 50/50 indeed!

*slaps self*

sorry. I'm better now. ;)

like these.

Dow 10,367.33 -14.37 (-0.14%)
Nasdaq 1,996.93 -3.70 (-0.18%)
S&P 500 1,127.53 +0.53 (+0.05%)
30-yr Bond 4.791% -0.027

2:00PM: The major averages have weakened since the last update, but losses remain only moderate... The oil serivces sector is worth highlighting in view of today's OPEC meeting... Specifically, as indicated by the OSX index, the oil services group was among the leaders to the upside earlier in the session, but has now backed off its morning highs, although continues to trade in positive territory... The price of crude oil, on the other hand, is down over 3%, or $1.15 at $35.10/bbl...

According to this morning's U.S. Department of Energy report, stockpiles increased 5.7 mln barrels to 294.3 mln in the week ended March 26, 4.9% above last year's level. The report came after OPEC said it could cut output quotas starting tomorrow by 4.1% to 23.5 mln barrels a day despite high crude oil prices, which according to some of the cartel's members are resulting from speculation rather than shortages...NYSE Adv/Dec 1745/1465, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1404/1615

Dow 10,357.56 -24.14 (-0.23%)
Nasdaq 1,994.08 -6.55 (-0.33%)
S&P 500 1,126.45 -0.55 (-0.05%)
30-yr Bond 4.777% -0.041

NYSE Volume 1,170,305,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,534,819,000

edit for blather update:

3:30PM: With half an hour of trade remaining, the market is trading in a volatile fashion... Given the relatively light volume totals, some volatility is not entirely surprising... Accordingly, the swing higher over the past hour has been attributed to a buy program by Goldman Sachs... Volatility in the last hour is especially likely considering the fact that it's the last day of the quarter when some trading accounts may be getting settled...
If the major averages were to close at their current levels, the Nasdaq and the Dow would be slightly lower for the quarter, while the S&P 500 is outperforming on a relative basis, with gains of 1.3%... NYSE Adv/Dec 2007/1248, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1690/1431

3:00PM: The market has found its feet after the S&P 500 was able to cross over into positive territory and the Nasdaq lifted above the psychologically-significant 2000 mark... As a result, all of the major averages have lifted into the green and to their best levels of the session... Given the light volume totals, it's not entirely surprising to see the market swing sharply higher, as it has over the past hour... Seeing that it's the last day of Q1, the Nasdaq is almost unchanged for the quarter at current level - down only 0.04%...

The Dow continues to underperform on a year-to-date basis, with losses of 0.6%... In the Dow, 14 of its 30 components are currently in the green, with leaders to the upside including United Technologies (UTX 86.46+0.71), Boeing (BA 40.98 +0.65), and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 50.89 +0.47)...

Dow 10,357.70 -24.00 (-0.23%)
Nasdaq 1,994.22 -6.41 (-0.32%)
S&P 500 1,126.21 -0.79 (-0.07%)
30-yr Bond 4.777% -0.041

NYSE Volume 1,480,334,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,832,639,000


US$
Last trade 87.59 Change -0.84 (-0.95%)
High 88.47 Low 87.49

edit to add blather:

Close: The last session of 1Q04 proved to be less than exciting as the major averages spent the bulk of the session trading with slight losses, interrupted by a brief buying frenzy attributed to program buying by a top-tier firm... While the indices closed in the red, with the Dow and the Nasdaq down 0.9% and 0.5%, respecitvely, for the quarter and the S&P 500 up 1.3%, today's selling efforts were controlled and by no means overwhelming, particularly considering the fact that today came on the heels of two consecutive winning sessions...
Newsflow was relatively light, but highlighted by better than expected earnings reports from Best Buy (BBY 51.74 +3.34) and Circuit City (CC 11.36 +0.66), as well as upward guidance by the likes of Cendant (CD 24.37 +0.13) and Sabre Holdings (TSG 24.77 +3.95), to name a few... Today's economic reports were weaker than expected with Factory Orders for February at 0.3% (consensus 1.5%) and Chicago PMI at 57.6 (consensus 61.0)...

Although below the consensus, the Chicago PMI was indicative of expansion in the region's manufacturing activity, while the surprising 2.0% drop in non-durable orders is likely to rebound in next month's data as the component tends to be relatively steady... Sector leadership was limited through the session as the bulk of the groups were little changed... Among the leaders to the upside were the oil services, retail, advertising, waste management, personal services, healthcare distributor, and airline sectors... Laggards of note included the steel, aluminum, networking, storage, and hardware groups... Elsewhere, the bond market got a bid on weaker than expected economic numbers, with the 10-year note closing up 15/32, bringing its yield down to 3.84%...

surprise analysts

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/040331/as_fin_eco_india_economy_2.html

NEW DELHI (AP) -- India's economy expanded at a surprising 10.4 percent in the October-December quarter, largely due to a surge in farm output, the government said Wednesday.
The figure makes it almost certain that India's economic growth in the current fiscal year ending Wednesday will overshoot the government's forecast of 8.1 percent and surpass China's expected growth rate of about 8 percent.

"The third-quarter numbers are a big surprise," said Dhananjay Sinha, chief economist at ICICI Bank, India's largest private bank. In the first two quarters, growth averaged 7 percent. India's fiscal year runs from April through March.

Full-year growth may be close to 8.5 percent, Sinha told Dow Jones Newswires.

India's economy is rebounding sharply after a drought slowed growth to 4 percent in the previous fiscal year. Agriculture, from which two-thirds of the country's 1 billion-plus people make their living, is leading the recovery.

Farm output grew 16.9 percent during the October-December period, compared with a contraction of 9.8 percent in the same period a year earlier.

more...