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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-10 04:30 AM
Original message
STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday October 4
Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday October 4, 2010

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON October 1, 2010

Dow 10,829.68 +41.63 (+0.38%)
Nasdaq 2,370.75 +2.13 (+0.09%)
S&P 500 1,146.24 +5.04 (+0.44%)
10-Yr Bond... 2.50 -0.02 (-0.64%)
30-Year Bond 3.70 -0.02 (-0.48%)



Market Conditions During Trading Hours


Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold






Handy Links - Market Data and News:
Economic Calendar    Marketwatch Data    Bloomberg Economic News    Yahoo! Finance    Google Finance    Bank Tracker    
Credit Union Tracker    Daily Job Cuts

Handy Links - Economic Blogs:

The Big Picture    Financial Sense    Calculated Risk    Naked Capitalism    Credit Writedowns
Brad DeLong      Bonddad    Atrios    goldmansachs666    The Stand-Up Economist

Handy Links - Government Issues:

LegitGov    Open Government    Earmark Database    USA spending.gov

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 =
11









This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-10 04:34 AM
Response to Original message
1. Today's Reports
10:00 Factory Orders Aug
Briefing.com -0.7%
Consensus -0.4%
Prior 0.1%

10:00 Pending Home Sales Aug
Briefing.com 1.0%
Consensus 1.0%
Prior 5.2%

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-10 04:36 AM
Response to Original message
2. Oil slips below $81 as European markets slide
KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia – Oil prices slipped below $81 a barrel Monday as weak European stock markets dampened sentiment.

Oil held most of Friday's gains in Asian trading but weakened as European stock markets slid. Oil traders often look to stock markets as an indicator of investor optimism about the economy.

A decline in first-time claims for jobless benefits and an improvement in Chicago region manufacturing activity spurred oil's rally on Friday. The U.S. government has also raised its estimate of second quarter gross domestic product growth to 1.7 percent from 1.6 percent.

In other Nymex trading in November contracts, heating oil was down 1 cent at $2.28 a gallon and gasoline fell 1 cent to $2.08 a gallon. Natural gas fell 4 cents to $3.76 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-10 04:42 AM
Response to Original message
3. Foreclosures bungle could hit US banks
NEW YORK (AFP) – Already fragile US financial firms are facing a raft of law suits and potential fines after three major mortgage lenders admitted to mishandling thousands of home foreclosures.

Major mortgage lenders Bank of American, JPMorgan Chase and GMAC have in recent days announced they were suspending tens of thousands of foreclosure processes across the country due to apparent improper handling of documents.

Documentation problems "are in all probability" likely to exist in 80 percent of them, according to Richard Kessler, an attorney that heads a company dealing with foreclosures.

The influx of hundreds of thousands of foreclosures led lending institutions to employ people who processed the paperwork as quickly as possible in order to put the property on the market in what has become known as "robo-signing".

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20101003/ts_afp/economyhousingbankingusforeclosure



The banks should be raked over the coals for this. The high profile mistakes have been too numerous to count.
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Festivito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-10 04:57 AM
Response to Original message
4. Debt: 09/30/2010 13,561,623,030,891.79 (UP 95,350,619,526.17) (Thu, 2010 year end)
(Up big, as usual for end of a quarter, let alone end of fiscal year. Yet, less borrowing than last year. Good job Obama. Good day.)
Sleep and yard work.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,022,808,423,453.08 + 4,538,814,607,438.71
UP 58,907,978,013.89 + UP 36,442,641,512.28

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.22 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,221.87 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.67, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 310,378,592 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $43,693.81.
A family of three owes $131,081.43. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 8,338,307,095.54.
The average for the last 30 days would be 6,392,702,106.58.
The average for the last 31 days would be 6,186,485,909.59.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 251 reports in 365 days of FY2011 averaging 6.58B$ per report, 4.53B$/day.
NOTE: Fiscal year end reporting needs a manual update that has not happened yet.

PROJECTION:
There are 843 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.7 and 18.8T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
09/30/2010 13,561,623,030,891.79 BHO (UP 2,934,745,981,978.71 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
09/10/2010 -000,055,297,184.77 ----
09/13/2010 +000,091,299,524.00 ------------******* Mon
09/14/2010 +000,150,853,245.21 ------------********
09/15/2010 +064,417,149,283.94 ------------**********
09/16/2010 -036,646,694,679.28 -
09/17/2010 -000,203,034,896.34 ---
09/20/2010 +000,019,446,813.89 ------------******* Mon
09/21/2010 +000,509,875,602.04 ------------********
09/22/2010 -000,022,020,658.96 ----
09/23/2010 -008,701,405,875.05 --
09/24/2010 +000,034,117,767.19 ------------*******
09/27/2010 -000,066,407,812.28 ---- Mon
09/28/2010 +001,463,391,855.14 ------------*********
09/29/2010 +000,391,315,850.35 ------------********
09/30/2010 +058,907,978,013.89 ------------**********

80,290,566,848.97 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4560429&mesg_id=4560448
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DemReadingDU Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-10 05:58 AM
Response to Reply #4
8. Wow, that's a lot

Yet, as you said above, less borrowing than last year.

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Po_d Mainiac Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-10 07:23 AM
Response to Reply #8
14. You have to look at who/what is the current largest buyer of T's for the total picture
And who is currently cutting their exposure. :scared:

As for the reduction of personal debt...much of this is due to write-offs and defaults
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Festivito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-10 07:55 AM
Response to Reply #8
16. That's a 12% drop from last year. 233B$ less borrowing. Fiscal responsibility BABY!
Kudos to Obama, and raspberries on Bush.

The usual large increase on the day before the end of the month should be diminished by the usual repayments to be made in the coming days.
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JNelson6563 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-10 12:39 PM
Response to Reply #16
27. Progress is good!
I'm confident it will continue too.

Julie
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OnlinePoker Donating Member (837 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-10 01:20 PM
Response to Reply #4
30. I remember how gleeful you were at the beginning of the year when there was actually a surplus...
...for a few weeks. I'm sure we'll see the same again this year, but I'd sure like to see the numbers drop a lot before declaring Obama a fiscal saint. At least Clinton actually knocked the deficit down when he was in office. I'd like to see Obama do the same.
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Festivito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-10 09:51 PM
Response to Reply #30
45. Clinton started this way, slowly dropping it each year.
until it finally became a surplus.

It will be tougher this time. SS will require us to make tough decisions.

Oh, and it was fun when Obama was not borrowing day by day by day, for as long as it lasted.
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Festivito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-10 09:23 PM
Response to Reply #4
44. Debt: 10/01/2010 13,610,847,585,810.09 (UP 49,224,554,918.30) (Fri)
Debt: 10/01/2010 13,610,847,585,810.09 (UP 49,224,554,918.30) (Fri)
(Down some. The one-day projection into a whole year is very high. It's not a good projection when projecting from such a small amount of data. Good day.)
Back to the autism classroom.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,017,223,006,275.57 + 4,593,624,579,534.52
DOWN 5,585,417,177.51 + UP 54,809,972,095.81

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.22 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,221.80 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.67, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 310,385,792 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $43,851.39.
A family of three owes $131,554.16. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 8,365,646,018.09.
The average for the last 30 days would be 6,134,807,079.93.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 252 reports in 366 days of FY2011 averaging 6.75B$ per report, 4.65B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 842 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.8 and 18.8T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
10/01/2010 13,610,847,585,810.09 BHO (UP 2,983,970,536,897.01 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +0,049,224,554,918.30 ------------* BHO
Endof11 +602,904,819,993,700.00 ------------* too many of them to show. That's 600-trillion. *

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
09/13/2010 +000,091,299,524.00 ------------******* Mon
09/14/2010 +000,150,853,245.21 ------------********
09/15/2010 +064,417,149,283.94 ------------**********
09/16/2010 -036,646,694,679.28 -
09/17/2010 -000,203,034,896.34 ---
09/20/2010 +000,019,446,813.89 ------------******* Mon
09/21/2010 +000,509,875,602.04 ------------********
09/22/2010 -000,022,020,658.96 ----
09/23/2010 -008,701,405,875.05 --
09/24/2010 +000,034,117,767.19 ------------*******
09/27/2010 -000,066,407,812.28 ---- Mon
09/28/2010 +001,463,391,855.14 ------------*********
09/29/2010 +000,391,315,850.35 ------------********
09/30/2010 +058,907,978,013.89 ------------**********
10/01/2010 -005,585,417,177.51 --

74,760,446,856.23 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4563337&mesg_id=4563349
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-10 05:10 AM
Response to Original message
5. Living without a bank: Fees and confusion galore
The fees were constant: $28 to cash a paycheck. $1.50 for a money order. A dollar or more every time I swiped the prepaid cash card I bought at the drug store.

In all, I racked up $93 in fees in a monthlong experiment of living without a bank and making a go of it on the economic fringe. That works out to $1,100 a year just to spend my own money.

Federal and local governments want to bring this group into the traditional banking world. The fear is that the chronic use of high-fee services keeps the country's poorest from moving up.

Yet there are signs that the slow economic recovery is leading more people to rely on certain alternative services. And it's not just the poor.

These services contribute (in no insignificant way) of keeping the poor impoverished.

There up-side is that the new Consumer Protection Agency will now have oversight of these predatory businesses.
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JNelson6563 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-10 12:38 PM
Response to Reply #5
26. Would love to see this get addressed!
The poor get bilked every which way to Sunday and it should be outlawed.

Julie
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AnneD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-10 02:56 PM
Response to Reply #26
32. And a special place in hell should be reserved.....
for pay day lenders that are located just off military posts and bases. Many of these are owned by major banks. Same on them all. They should face stiff regulations.
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JNelson6563 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-10 08:20 PM
Response to Reply #32
43. Amen Sister Anne!
Couldn't agree more. I hate those predators!

Julie
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-10 05:13 AM
Response to Original message
6. Europe Stocks Fall Before Factory Orders; Emerging Markets Gain
Oct. 4 (Bloomberg) -- European stocks fell, driving the Stoxx Europe 600 Index to its longest losing streak since January 2009, and U.S. stock index futures slid before reports that may show slowing factory orders. The benchmark stock index for emerging markets rose to the highest level since June 2008.

The Stoxx 600 dropped 0.7 percent at 10:21 a.m. in London, while futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 0.6 percent. The euro weakened against all but two of its most- traded counterparts. The yield on the two-year Treasury note fell to a record 0.3987 percent and the German 10-year bund yield slipped 4 basis points to 2.25 percent. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index advanced 0.3 percent to 1,089.57 while oil futures retreated below $81 a barrel in New York.

Manufacturing orders in the U.S. may have declined 0.4 percent in August, according to the median forecast of 51 economists in a Bloomberg survey, adding to concern the recovery may falter. By contrast, a Chinese industry report yesterday showed that growth in non-manufacturing businesses accelerated, while Premier Wen Jiabao said the nation will stimulate domestic demand.

The decline in U.S. futures indicated the S&P 500 may extend last week’s decline, the biggest since August. The report from the Commerce Department, scheduled for 10 a.m. in Washington, may show factory orders fell 0.4 percent in August, following a 0.1 percent increase a month earlier, according to economists. A separate report from the National Association of Realtors, due at the same time, may show the number of contracts to purchase previously owned homes in the U.S. climbed for a second month, suggesting the housing market is stabilizing.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=atL98TpKrJmQ&pos=2
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-10 05:26 AM
Response to Original message
7. World Economy Decoupling From U.S. Returns as Wall Street View
From Bloomberg:

Just three years since America began dragging the world into its deepest recession in seven decades, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Credit Suisse Holdings USA Inc. and BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research are forecasting that this time will be different. Goldman Sachs predicts worldwide growth will slow 0.2 percentage point to 4.6 percent in 2011, even as expansion in the U.S. falls to 1.8 percent from 2.6 percent.

Underpinning their analysis is the view that international reliance on U.S. trade has diminished and is too small to spread the lingering effects of America’s housing bust. Providing the U.S. pain doesn’t roil financial markets as it did in the credit crisis, Goldman Sachs expects a weakening dollar, higher bond yields outside the U.S. and stronger emerging-market equities.

It appears that other regions in the world are beginning to adjust to the idea that the United States does not consume as much as it has in the the past.

The gap in growth rates between the developing and advanced worlds is widening, he said. Emerging economies will account for about 60 percent of global expansion this year and next, up from about 25 percent a decade ago, according to his estimates.

The main reason for the divergence: “Direct transmission from a U.S. slowdown to other economies through exports is just not large enough to spread a U.S. demand problem globally,” Goldman Sachs economists Dominic Wilson and Stacy Carlson wrote in a Sept. 22 report entitled “If the U.S. sneezes...”

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a5UtGWg46qxY&pos=4
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Po_d Mainiac Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-10 06:00 AM
Response to Original message
9. Some of the better lines (IMHO)
from this weekends' wading through the blogs

The Dow may hit 12,000 but unemployment will haunt us for a decade to come. We can't afford the brutal cuts to retiree benefits, healthcare or education that they're pushing on us.

Fed is truly apolitical because they own everyone equally

Once everyone catches on to the fact that everyone is playing out the same strategy of dumping greenbacks, the race to kick the dollar to the wayside will intensify.

Gold is not acting in any way like a commodity that is non-correlated to inflation. It is in fact acting like a currency, and the counter-balance to what the world sees as an inevitable devaluation of the dollar as Bernanke once again turns the Quantitative Easing pumps (aka printing more money) on full blast

The Fed's super-loose policy has driven down the security and spending power of savers, particularly those in retirement who played by the rules during their working years and now depend on the earnings from their savings for a decent quality of life. As a result, savers and investors are being forced to take more risk with their money as they hunt for higher yields.


Re: ‘liar/stated-income loans’..Anyone care to bet whether or not the bondholders - many of whom are pension funds and other big institutions - will just sit silently and watch the defaults happen without looking into this - when they know that all they have to find is an overstated income and they can "PUT" the loan back on the issuer for its full unpaid face value, plus imputed interest?

At a time of crisis in the nation’s financial system, the MIN provides greater accountability and transparency for consumers, lenders, investors and regulators. Through the MIN, MERS helps
:puke:
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Po_d Mainiac Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-10 06:07 AM
Response to Original message
10. GS apprciation thread............ cross link
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Roland99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-10 11:46 AM
Response to Reply #10
21. Those all hit the nail on the head. Sad thing is...
there's not a whole helluva lot that any of us can do about them.

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Po_d Mainiac Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-10 01:02 PM
Response to Reply #21
28. I dunno know about that
Keeping the stories flowing about the fraud perpetuated on the country by the baking class, is a start.

Don't let the teabagger crew (AND THEIR BIG MONEY BACKERS) get away with placing the entire blame on the sub-prime borrowers. As one of the SMW regulars posted last week, "there is a sense that something is about to blow" (or something close to that). If/when that something happens, an educated populace will see through the smoke.

In your everyday life; make a conscious effort to keep your transactions out of the reach of the banksters that like to skim the cream away from the end merchant.

Think about how much you are getting a handle on, vs. a year or so ago.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-10 06:21 AM
Response to Original message
11. Truly Excellent Cartoon There
Wish me luck. I am so apprehensive...like leaving home for the first time...
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DemReadingDU Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-10 07:06 AM
Response to Reply #11
13. That is a great toon!

Have a good trip!

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Po_d Mainiac Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-10 06:33 AM
Response to Original message
12. pyramid markets
Edited on Mon Oct-04-10 06:33 AM by Po_d Mainiac
And he's very negative on valuations right now:

To some extent, I view current market conditions as something of a "Ponzi game" in that valuations appear neither sustainable nor likely to produce acceptably high long-term returns, and speculators increasingly rely on finding a greater fool. As the mathematician John Allen Paulos has observed, "people generally worry only about what happens one or two steps ahead and anticipate being able to get out before a collapse... In countless situations people prepare exclusively for near-term outcomes and don't look very far ahead. They myopically discount the future at an absurdly steep rate."


Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/john-hussman-the-current-market-is-a-ponzi-game-2010-10#ixzz11O8pvWN4

.............................
dated, but still relevant
snip

You say, of course, that you're too sophisticated to be caught up in a Ponzi or multilevel pyramid scheme. That's for the common folk. You invest in real estate and the stock market. That's different. No! - not really! - at least, not anymore! And those who bought real estate as an "investment" in the late 1980s and then tried to sell it a few years later for a profit have found out that it's not.
snip
THE PRICE / EARNINGS RATIO
When the price / earnings ratio favors the investor, the investor can expect to recover the price he originally paid for the stock within a relatively short period of time and from that point on live off the company's profits (i.e., derive an income from the company's quarterly dividends). When it doesn't favor the investor, it takes a relatively larger amount of time for the investor to recover the money he originally paid for the stock. When the amount of time increases to an unreasonable length before an investor can expect to recover his original investment, the price / earnings ratio is said to be "out of equilibrium." If the price of the company's stock continues to rise after that point is reached, then it is being speculated upon.

http://www.apocalypsesoon.org/xfile-44.html
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Roland99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-10 07:54 AM
Response to Original message
15. Futures - Down as dollar rises amid European debt woes
Edited on Mon Oct-04-10 07:54 AM by Roland99
S&P 500 1,138 -4.40 -0.39%
DOW 10,730 -38.00 -0.35%
NASDAQ 1,986 -8.25 -0.41%
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Papa Boule Donating Member (363 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-10 09:33 AM
Response to Original message
17. Just caught a couple of minutes of a Hagee sermon on TV
Caught the end of a fearmongering, anti-socialism (and therefore flag-wrapped, jingoistic, pro-corporate-American-capitalism) rant-sermon that sounded a lot like the anti-communist fearmongering rant-sermons I heard growing up in the '60s South.

Hagee quoted Churchill and Lincoln ("You can't help the poor by destroying the rich!") to make his point. Interestingly, I didn't hear him quote Jesus to make that point. I wonder why.

The title of the sermon, incidentally, was "America: Titanic of Tomorrow."

When the economy does finally hit the iceberg, the conservative power right has already laid the groundwork to frame it as a failure of leftist, liberal policies.

I've said many times the stage is set for a catastrophic rise of a new right wing movement. It's practially a joke now (teabaggers, hillbillies, old white people, and all that), but it won't be a joke forever.
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TalkingDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-10 10:59 AM
Response to Reply #17
19. Papa Boule Welcome to DU
And....Ummm....I consider myself a hillbilly. (defined: A person from the backwoods or a remote mountain area.) In fact, I belong to the Hillbilly Liberation Front




http://www.cafepress.com/floatinghead

While I agree with the gist of your post, that certain self-defined, self-aggregating groups of people, are engaging in fear mongering; hillbillies are not often self-defined (as I am)nor are they self-aggregating. So they are being labeled by others wanting to dis-empower them instead of labeling themselves.

Be careful of broad-brushing folks because they come from a certain region. It's not polite. And it's against the rules on DU.
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Papa Boule Donating Member (363 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-10 12:17 PM
Response to Reply #19
25. It was a sideways reference to "Wasilla hillbillies," and my own roots run deep in Appalachia
Edited on Mon Oct-04-10 12:19 PM by Papa Boule
So clearly, no offense was intended. But I appreciate your taking the time to make me aware of just how thin some skins are around here.
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TalkingDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-10 01:31 PM
Response to Reply #25
31. Not thin, just .....cautious
The SMW is not looked upon with favor with some who think the postings here are Anti-.....

Sometimes Newbies skip reading the RULES, thinking they are unimportant and find themselves Banninated.
Just offering a sconce of experience.

And I appreciate you taking the time to remind me that some people incredibly sensitive to constructive criticism.
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Papa Boule Donating Member (363 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-10 03:02 PM
Response to Reply #31
34. No problem! I'm prepared. I have several pairs of extra-soft, eggshell-walking shoes.
And I've had years and years and years of practice. :)
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AnneD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-10 03:14 PM
Response to Reply #25
35. How 'bout...
Edited on Mon Oct-04-10 03:19 PM by AnneD
Vanilla billies or my fav, Wasilla Vanilla billies. :spray:

edited to add-I don't worry now that I have my Victoria's Secret kevlar teddy and undies. Goes great with my kitchen mittens and toxic gas mask.
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howaboutme Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-10 07:44 PM
Response to Reply #17
41. Why do I see Hagee as a shill
and one paid off and bribed by the ultra rich, Wall Street hucksters, capitalists, usurers, flash traders, and those who with an obsession for even more money, and more greed, so as to convince the sheep that everything wrong in society is somehow right.

His beliefs demonstrate how corporate and banking greed has enough money and influence to buy off politicians and media to convince average ill informed Americans that these entities of greed are good and the backbone of America.
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TalkingDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-10 10:17 AM
Response to Original message
18. "Fasten your seatbelts. It's going to be a bumpy ride."
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Roland99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-10 11:49 AM
Response to Reply #18
22. "tis but a flesh wound"
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Po_d Mainiac Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-10 12:13 PM
Response to Reply #18
24. I was doing some charting last week, and ended up with a similar image for the E/S
With the top BBand being tickled signaling the move.

Seemed fitting as the green of summers' bounty, started to fade into the rusty colors of autumn.

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Roland99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-10 01:17 PM
Response to Reply #24
29. Won't be the best of news for Dems for election day
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TalkingDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-10 11:14 AM
Response to Original message
20. XPost: KY invokes RICO on everyone involved in Mortgage Crisis
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Roland99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-10 11:52 AM
Response to Original message
23. 12:50 - Debbie DOWner
Dow 10,726 -104 -0.96%
Nasdaq 2,338 -33 -1.39%
S&P 500 1,134 -12 -1.04%
GlobalDow 1,938 -17 -0.85%
Gold 1,315 -3 -0.21%

Oil 81.61 +0.03 +0.04%


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Papa Boule Donating Member (363 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-10 02:58 PM
Response to Original message
33. Yet another single-stock flash crash
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StarburstClock Donating Member (583 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-10 03:30 PM
Response to Original message
36. Another dead drift day in discredited markets
I'm not trading anymore but still read about and watch this circus of corruption called "the stock market". Bank of America can't even validate its real estate "investments" in numerous states, but of course they won't be held accountable for their crimes. Therein lies the whole reason why the entire U.S. markets are discredited, criminal corporations were temporarily "rescued" while none of the criminals were held accountable. Of course there was the tongue lashing on TV in front of the Congress they own but that's just another show in the circus.

Just in time for elections, the Osama Bin Laden show is pulled out of the circus trailer, dusted off and placed in the same circus tent as "The amazing economic recovery" show. All the makeup-covered and surgically-altered clowns all run around the various tents/TV programs laughing about it all and replaying youtube videos of pets as "news". Yes, let's watch kitty cats run around because who has the mental acuity to understand international financial crime being committed by the people who control our 401ks and pensions. In fact, we're told anyway, that the criminals had to be saved otherwise we poor little common people would have descended in chaos.

So there are the choices we've been given: be ruled by criminals or descend into chaos. If you're patient little commoners, you'll also get some unaffordable health care "options" and maybe a tax break that will likely not apply to you anyway. Ah the wonders of living in a "free" militaristic society of corruption that's too dumb to even recognize it's being terrorized and fleeced by it's own leaders.
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Po_d Mainiac Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-10 03:42 PM
Response to Reply #36
37. Welcome to DU
"If you're patient little commoners, you'll also get some unaffordable health care"

didn't you mean..If you're a patient, little commoners, you'll also get some uncomfortable health care??
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Dr.Phool Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-10 04:18 PM
Response to Reply #36
38. Thanks for reminding me of that.
We haven't heard from Osama in almost two years. It must be election season.

Like we don't have a lot worse to worry about. They gotta drag him out of his cave.
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howaboutme Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-10 07:46 PM
Response to Reply #38
42. The terrorist warnings are making headlines
it is election season again. But that's another old story but still being used.
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hamerfan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-10 05:00 PM
Response to Original message
39. Gasoline up 20 cents/gallon here today!
From $2.45/gallon up to $2.65/gallon in one day. What happened, anyone know?
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Po_d Mainiac Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-10 05:22 PM
Response to Reply #39
40. fergut to change the signs over the weekend??
Edited on Mon Oct-04-10 05:25 PM by Po_d Mainiac
That's about twice the increase in wholesale (since Thursday) on the NY merc.??? Most of that rise was the U$D trade. (falling against the basket of other majors)
:shrug:

Edit to add....see if there were any local taxes that may have been added....(That X days delay after adjournment before taking effect type of thingy)
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