Earlier Flight May Have Been Dry Run for Plotters(September)

Source: NYT

WASHINGTON — American intelligence officials in September intercepted several packages containing books, papers, CDs and other household items shipped to Chicago from Yemen and considered the possibility that the parcels might be a test run for a terrorist attack, two officials said Monday night.

Now the intelligence officials believe that the shipments, whose hour-by-hour locations could be tracked by the sender on the shippers’ Web sites, may have been used to plan the route and timing for two printer cartridges packed with explosives that were sent from Yemen and intercepted in Britain and Dubai on Friday.

In September, after American counterterrorism agencies received information linking the packages to Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, the terror network’s branch in Yemen, intelligence officers stopped the shipments in transit and searched them, said the officials, who would discuss the operation only on the condition of anonymity. They found no explosives, and the packages were permitted to continue to what appeared to be “random addresses” with no connection to the terrorist group in Chicago.

“At the time, people obviously took notice and — knowing of the terrorist group’s interest in aviation — considered the possibility that AQAP might be exploring the logistics of the cargo system,” one of the officials said, referring to Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.



Read more: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/02/world/02terror.html?_r=1&hp

US knew of al-Qaeda parcel plot

Authorities say they were aware of al-Qaeda's plan to use international cargo systems several weeks before foiled plot.
Last Modified: Nov 02 2010 01:04 EST

US authorities have said that they knew of al-Qaeda's plans to use international cargo systems several weeks before last week's foiled parcel bomb plot, Al Jazeera has learned.

The authorities are reported to have intercepted packages shipped by the group in September.

"Several weeks ago, we identified packages in transit that appeared to have a connection to al-Qaeda," a US official told Al Jazeera on Tuesday.

"We looked at them very closely, and determined they did not contain explosives. We obviously took this earlier event into account in dealing with last week's cargo threat."

The parcel bombs, addressed to synagogues in Chicago, were discovered at a UK airport and in a cargo terminal in Dubai on Friday.

More, including video of report: http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2010/11/201011241536827238.html

Serious questions:

Why would a terrorist do an exploratory run?

Why risk putting your enemy on guard should the test fail?

What is there to lose for the terrorists by just planting the bombs and waiting to see if they do their work?

I'm open to any explanation here that answers the above questions.

(And having attended Saturday's glorious event in D.C, I want to make it clear that if you disagree with me, I won't think you are Hitler!)

action - if it had worked - a Fed Ex plane forced down or something. But the authorities were tipped off and got to the parcels.

(I'm referring to the latest actual discoveries of bombs)

I can accept the idea that it was maybe an unsuccessful distraction away from some other concurrent planned event, in which case it wasn't then "a test" to see if they could get the cargo bombs through security.

I just don't understand why the media are accepting the idea that it was a "test" since it defies logic. If you're a terrorist, you have no need for a test, you just do it and see what happens.

them (the media) too much credit if they settled on that explanation to somehow whack us out of our persistent complacency on the likelihood of another attack.

Clearly the bomb(s) and maker are very sophisticated. But there plan was tipped off from an insider, apparently.

Just left wondering. And uneasy.

Maybe that's "the plan" after all...

out of Yemen. Surface shipping only.

Because the terrorists are testing our security systems, that's why (ever wonder how many of them might be airport workers?). The 9/11 hijackers did a test run(s), we know that. They lived here for several years. However, this may not only have been a test run, but a distraction from something else, as well.

Thanks for that reply.

I can see doing "test runs" for some of the logistics of the 9/11 hijackings, given the complexity of the operation, the number of people involved, the need to synchronize actions in multiple cities, etc. But the test runs didn't include actually seizing a plane and seeing what happens.

In the current case, it is suggested that this test run may have involved putting explosives on planes without the intention of actually detonating them if they got through security.

Presumably, the terrorists would know that, if the test failed, it would be highly unlikely they'd be able to get a second bomb through after that.

And if the test worked, and the bomb did get through, then what would be the motivation to not detonate the explosives?

I still don't get it. Maybe I'm just thick on this.

With UPS and FedEx, you can get hour-by-hour updates on your package online. They could use the "exploratory run" to figure out when and where the package would be. That would definitely be helpful.

If so, they would already know where a flight is supposed to be at a particular time.

And if they were tracking the packages, I still don't understand why a terrorist would decline to detonate when the flight is shown to be over the desired target, so as to do the same thing later with a second run.

things were transported, then it wouldn't put anyone on guard. "several packages containing books, papers, CDs and other household items " wouldn't put anyone on guard, but, as the article says


Then there is this (also from OP)

The senior US official told ABC News that the "dry run" involved a carton of household goods including books, religious literature, and a computer disk, but no explosives, shipped from Yemen to an address in Chicago by "someone with ties to al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula."

-----

"The dry run is always important to al Qaeda," said Dick Clarke, a former White House counterterrorism official and now an ABC News consultant. "In this case they wanted to follow the packages using the tracking system to know exactly when they got to a point, how long the timer had to be set for, so the bomb would go off at the right point, which presumably was over Chicago."

http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/us-feared-mail-bomb-plot-coming-september-dry/story?id=12025563

One of the counterterrorism officials I highly trust is Richard Clarke.

I note the linked article states:

US and British authorities say they now believe that the bombs, hidden in desktop printers, were designed to be detonated on board the aircraft carrying them.

I think this is becoming clearer to me.

September's packages were a dry run, no problem with that.

Last week's packages were the real deal, with explosives.

Some early reports, however, confused these real deal packages with those sent during the September test runs.

I think I see what's happened here.

(And I also respect Richard Clarke. His book "Against All Enemies" was quite informative, and did win him the distinction of being put on the Bush black list.)

I think this should be stressed. A package bomb sounds so .... less... but a package that brings a plane down over Chicago? That is SO LARGE. This is very serious.
I'm glad they figured it out.
We need to inspect ALL cargo before it takes off in a plane... or boat.
Who said that and got laughed at? Kerry ... six years ago?
And still nothing is done.
The Republics should have noticed, but were too busy counting their ill-gotten gains.

with how well we seem to be tracking these guys lately.