What the Jobs Number Won't Do

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/apr2004/nf2004042_5933.htm

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For the most part, the report showed broad strength. Construction put in a massive showing, up 71,000. The service-sector jobs gain was the largest since May, 2000, with retail up 47,000 (some apparently from the return of California grocery workers after their recent strike), and trade/transport/utilities overall up 73,000.

The factory sector, however, lagged behind the rest of the economy yet again, as hiring was flat, vs. a median estimate of growth of 8,000 jobs. Net manufacturing jobs remain down 14,000 year-to-date -- and still some 1.7 million below the level when the recession officially ended in November, 2001.

BULLISH PAUSE? Moreover, the so-called factory diffusion index fell to 48.8 in March from 51.8 in February, suggesting that more companies were losing than gaining workers. This may give a bit pause to the bullish shock of the headline payrolls number and keep the issue of outsourcing in the political spotlight.

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The report has some odd aspects. Among the employment-related items in the release, only the headline nonfarm payrolls figure (arguably the most important single number in the report) was better than expected. And the sheer size of the gain in the construction sector makes us think the BLS may have a bit of a problem with some of the data.

more...

Construction employment is also extremely variable.

More jobs is fine as far as it goes. But there are so many factors that don't get reported.

What are the salaries? Are these jobs secure, or temporary? Do they come with health care? 401k? Pension?

when it always goes up because it's spring, and the construction season has started?? Just like it does EVERY YEAR??

... so such seasonal variances are (supposedly) eliminated. The construction jobs growth was reported as an increase of 71 thousand jobs, which is a greater reported jobs growth in construction than in any but 5 months of the previous 121 months (10 years).

Note: The Not Seasonally Adjusted increase in construction jobs was 160,000 in March.

As most know, construction job numbers are among the most volatile over any year. They tend to increase Mar-Jul, are flat in Aug, decrease Sep-Jan, and are flat in Feb. March and April are the leading two months of increases in such jobs, while December and January are the trailing two months of decreases in such jobs. (About 20-25% of the people in construction can usually expect a jobless February.)

I foresee a major restatement in the jobs numbers next month. I'm also foreseeing a very disappointing report of construction jobs in April. Over the last ten years, the average growth in construction jobs is about 16,000 jobs. The March adjusted increase was approximately two standard deviations above that average. That's an anomaly in this economy, by any reasonable view. (Construction jobs are usually a lagging indicator of jobs growth/decline.)

Very well put micro-analysis. And I have to admire someone who can smoothly work-in a phrase like "two standard deviations above".

:evilgrin: Thank you. :hi:

who is an independant trucker. His 18-wheeler has not moved for more than a few short day trips since Christmas.
It is not worth his cost in fuel to work. And the new rules are making it even worse.
This is a recovery?

People are questioning methodology, questioning intent, that's a great sign. It may bode well for the future.

went back to work, according to SF papers.

these men whom were employed...pulled out of their jobs.these jobs were more than likely filled.......how many working men and women were called for their reserve units? anybody know?

their jobs this winter too.

I have a feeling these 308k jobs will wither to about 150k or so quietly on page 46 in about 2 weeks.

these numbers are off.

Jeez, it's common knowledge among us that in order to just keep up with the growing number of workers the economy has to grow 150,000 jobs per month. Just to break even for that month! 300,000 jobs does nothing but break us even for this month and one other. Pfffttt! Where's that wank-off smiley? Ah, yes! :freak: Bush* is grinning like the window popped up that said "You are the 1,000,000th visitor to this site. Click here to claim your prize!"
They'll adjust the numbers back down after Condescenda Rice testifies, and the hubbub from that dies down. All they do is manipulate and massage.